Clara, my perspective might help with your angst. The truth is Joe Biden, with the support of his family, made the decision to stay in this race. He already earned the votes needed.
Those not getting those facts need to just be ignored as if they are disrobing in public. Joe is in charge of this, and they have no say. The detractors have no portfolio; hence, their whining and their barfing up hypotheticals to prove they are smart just needs to be ignored. Their voices will be fewer and not as loud as time passes. I am talking about a week from now, they will realize no one joined their foolish game because Joe Biden is one great President.
Clara, I understand your fear. Sometimes it helps to just sit down and observe the fear, let it be, and it will lessen. It's ok to be afraid; this is scary stuff we face. After that, get mad, and channel that anger into action. Turn off whatever causes the fear to increase. Stick with this community. I would also suggest listening to MeidasTouch network, Glenn Kirschner's YouTube channel, Brian Tyler Cohen, the LIncoln Project. There is a lot of good media out there for our side. Remember that we'd rather be us than them.
I agree with everything you said. Joe Biden is the best president in my lifetime. Full Stop. And I'm a Boomer who has been voting since 1980. Donald is the worst president in the history of the country. Full Stop. The pundits on TV do not speak for me or for the Democratic Party. Full Stop. I'm giving myself permission to break up with the podcasters and TV hosts for a while.
I'm not sure what Simon has in mind for postcarding, but I do postcards with a bunch of organizations.
If you want to do voter registration, check out Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org). Their postcard page is found here: https://fieldteam6.herokuapp.com/. FT6 also partners with various organizations (e.g., Seniors Taking Action, Building Bridges for America) and has a partner webpage https://fieldteam6-partners.herokuapp.com/ which has different campaigns. You must set up the accounts separately, although you can use the same email address and password when you create the accounts.
If you want to do GOTV (get out the vote), then the first question is partisan (i.e., mentions candidates names) or non-partisan?
For partisan postcards, check out Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote), Grassroots Democrats (https://grassrootsdems.org), or Postcards to Voters (www.postcardstovoters.org). There is a lot of overlap in the first two options since Grassroots Dems sources many of their campaigns from Activate America. Postcards to Voters is the best option for Special Election campaigns or FL vote by Mail (VBM), but they make you jump through some hoops to become a volunteer and have the clunkiest system for requesting names and addresses.
If you are interested in GOTV in VA specifically, there is Postcards4VA (https://postcards4va.com/).
Most of the non-partisan postcard campaigns with which I am familiar require you to use specific postcards which they will either mail you for free (e.g., Postcards to Swing States[www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/], https://www.environmentalvoter.org/) or which you need to purchase (https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/). There is usually a minimum quantity (100 or 200) for each shipment, so be aware of how long you will have to write them before they must be mailed. (These very are good options if you have a group or club writing postcards or you are hosting a postcard party).
Environment Voter Project and Blue Wave Postcards both have much of the info preprinted on the postcards so the amount of writing is minimal; Blue Wave also sends you mailing labels.
Postcards to Swing States currently has statewide campaigns for 11 states - including NC and AZ. Next week they will be adding campaigns for key swing districts including all the ones that Hopium is supporting - plus a bunch of others. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise if Simon directs us to this goup.
Reclaim Our Vote (https://www.centerforcommonground.org/reclaim-our-vote) focuses on BIPOC voters in Southern states with restrictive voting laws. They require you to take a brief on-line training and use one of their culturally sensitive postcard designs. But the postcards do not mention a specific election; names and addresses are requested separately so you don't have to commit to a bunch of names at once. I bought postcards last year for a campaign in VA, but I used the leftover postcards for primary elections this year. NOTE: you are asked to print out labels with the specifics of each campaign, so I usually request 30 names & addresses at a time so as not to waste the sheet of address labels that I printed.
NOTE: Voter Registration and partisan GOTV campaigns are mostly mail as you go, but some may have a "hold until" date to mail them. Non-partisan GOTV campaigns usually are "hold until" with a mail date based on either the date of the state's primary or when early voting starts for the general election. If you don't have a convenient place to store completed postcards, this may influence your campaign choice.
I forgot to mention, USPS is set to raise the rate on postage at the end of next week. Postcard stamps will go up 3 cents from $0.53 to $0.56 each. (First Class postage is also going up too). Even though they don't say it, postcard stamps are "Forever" stamps just like First Class, so I recommend stocking up before the price increase.
If you can't find any at your local post office, you can order them direct from USPS.com. There is a flat fee of a couple of bucks for online orders. While you are there check out the cool new first class stamp designs. (I also write letters for Vote Forward and opt for eye-catching designs instead of the boring flags). You may be surprised - there is a much bigger selection than your local Post Office is likely to have.
FYI: Beware of online sites promoting deeply discounted stamps - it is either a scam or the stamps they mail you are COUNTERFEIT!!
Just want to say that you are a rockstar! Thank you for always sharing resources! I thought I knew about all the postcard campaigns, but you led me to a new one, Center for Common Ground. I signed up! I am doing a few others but the focus of rural BIPOC voters made me so happy!
Cheryl, a huge thanks for spelling this all out. This is hugely helpful. Unfortunately, it's buried in a long string of comments. I wonder if Simon could put this somewhere on the Substack web page and/or include it in one of his daily emails. I'm sure there are a lot of people who want to write postcards and don't know how or where to start.
Question: Does that count only those workers laid off by employers? Or does it also include people who quit – perhaps to go to a better job, start their own business, enroll in further education or training, or who choose to take early retirement and enjoy life?
The Jolts layoffs and discharges are people separated from their job not by their choice. So Firings and Layoffs.
Essentially it means that jobs are more secure under Joe Biden than any president since they started tracking this number.
Quits is another number, I have not been tracking it in as close but a casual glance will show that Joe Biden has over seen far and away more Quits, Employees leaving a position by their own decision, than any other president since record keeping began. The last few months have been his lowest for quits and they are comparable to Trumps best months.
I wonder whether The New York Times and the Washington Post are covering this – perhaps prominently at the bottom of page 6, as a single-paragraph article with a headline that twists this into "bad for Biden".
Simon, I believe we should draft a bullet point email outlining the objectives of Project 2025. This email could be shared with all your followers and they can forward to family and friends, and they can also ask them to forward the email to their family and friends. We need to spread the word and inform potential voters what is at stake.
They are helping Trump avoid accountability for the moment. Honestly I wouldn't put anything past the Roberts court. But don't let that paralyze you with fear - because that's what they want! I'm scared as well, but the worst thing any of us can do is let it stop us in our tracks. Let us ensure this is a galvanizing event that leads to that many more voters turning up this fall to say " No you fucking don't !" with their ballots. Remember to keep calm & campaign on my friend.
I hear you, and I hear all others here, and I’m so grateful for this community. And full disclosure, I’m an English major with an anxiety disorder, so I (a) don’t know how politics works and (b) always assume the worst. The worst in this case being: Now that the court has proven it doesn’t give a damn about the Constitution, couldn’t it just pick the president it wants, like it did in 2000?
The media isn't helping either. I'm still hearing talk on NPR from analysts who are assuming the debate was a serious setback for Biden, even before there's any data to demonstrate that. One guy said that Democratic donors, in private, are talking about putting their dollars toward efforts to regain the House, presumably instead of toward the presidential campaign.
Stephen, I second the idea of taking time to read the comments here and in other of Simon's posts.
After the debate, I was spiraling, so I spent most of the next three days reading Simon's posts and hundreds of comments, and my fear turned into resolve. Simon's mantra "do more, worry less" isn't a platitude. It actually works! It's given me a mission and a task, and it makes all the difference.
Last night I finished addressing 200 postcards, and today I bought 400 stamps! So I've already committed to another 200 cards. I have lots of worries, so I just channel them into GOTV. It's excellent therapy.
We can't control what the WH or scotus or gov't does, but we can control what we do. Being part of this great community and partaking in good works at this time in our history is, to me, an honor. We're being called to participate, to help save our democracy. I can think of no more important work at this time. And every little bit helps.
About the scotus...they have wildly overreached with this decision, and I have a feeling that they have just motivated and mobilized an entire swath of people who will help get us over the finish line in Nov. They may not see the backlash coming, but it's coming.
You are not alone. Keep the faith. We are in this together!!! 💙🇺🇸
An evil President who wants to break the law always thinks he's invincible. Trump already did. Nixon did ("when the President does it, it's not illegal"). The danger to democracy is re-electing Trump. Re-elect Biden, get a trifecta, and we start getting options to reform SCOTUS or at least replace a couple of justices (since Trump will surely appeal convictions on the basis of this ruling, there could be many chances for a changed court to overturn it in the coming years).
Remember: All we need is the chance to replace Thomas and Alito, and 3-6 becomes 5-4.
I've heard more than one person mention Thomas and Alito retiring soon. How likely is it that they would retire during a second Biden administration? Wouldn't they instead decide to stay another four years?
Not sure I understand you. As I see it, that *is* a choice they can make. If Biden gets re-elected, they just wait it out another 4 years. If Thomas and Alito want a GOP president to nominate their replacements, there would be no incentive for them to retire before 2028. Right?
When FDR took on the Court over the New Deal, he didn't even have to actually make any changes. The realization that he was serious and that he had the power was enough. One justice resigned and the rest of the hold-outs got in line.
If we get enforceable ethics rules, return to Congress the power to pass some laws as not subject to judicial review (as was the norm for centuries), and put in place either term limits or court expansion or both, this bunch of horse thieves will head for the hills.
Re impeaching them, that requires a super-majority in the Senate (67). The House only needs a majority. It's doable if we crank up our efforts even more, especially in red states that have senators up for election.
"An evil President who wants to break the law always thinks he's invincible."
This is one of the few times in life where I find myself hoping for a lodged chicken bone. A sudden and "divinely-inspired withdrawal from the presidential race..."
Also, not for nothing: Biden has this same immunity. That means any plans Trump had of prosecuting him in a second term for some made up crime just went out the window. If Cannon tries to toss the Special Counsel, Hunter's conviction goes away and his trial in September gets cancelled. Trump's Justice Department actually made lots of use of the Special Counsel (Hur, Durham, and Weiss) to persecute people. No more.
Everything Trump and others are doing to protect him just creates more problems for them. They're like Sideshow Bob stepping on rakes.
According to Heather Cox Richardson, the decision was written to make the Supreme Court the ultimate decider of what is official or unofficial. So in effect, it would not necessarily protect Biden.
There's a lot of breathtakingly bad commentary here (the poll says Biden leads, the commentary says his "presidency is imploding" - give me a break), but these are the TIPP results (I'm not paying this guy for crosstabs):
Don't believe the headline - we know that there have been no big changes so far. Morning Consult's weekly panel today is Trump +1 compared to last week's tie, but that's a meaningless movement (and they found Biden +1 on Friday). It's weird that TIPP, whose results have been spectacularly steady throughout the year, would forecast "big changes" as a result of anything, let alone a debate.
Also, Biden's run of strong speeches continued last night: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtc_n4Tqr8k. They should turn "I Dissent" into a bumper sticker slogan like they did with "Nevertheless, She Persisted".
Because it seems courts get to decide what an “official action” is.
How do you define an official action? The Supreme Court didn’t say, but I’m guessing with this current court it’s anything a Republican does and nothing a Democrat does.
He already did. He denounced his opponent in an official address to the nation with the White House as a backdrop, which is technically a violation of the Hatch Act. I think that was meant as a message.
We' still have the capacity to overwhelm them at the ballot box. Millions of unregistered folk trend heavily Democratic. Register them to save democracy. Gen Z can outnumber them.
Young voters, especially women, are tuned in to the loss of their freedom to make their own reproductive health decisions. Many more young voters are tuned in to our burning planet. Don't count them out.
Rick, I respect that this is your opinion of the best way forward… You may get your wish… I don’t happen to agree, but whether you think it’s stupid or not, I haven’t lost faith that we’re going to be able to turn out the vote against the worst candidate in American history, no matter who Our ticket is comprised of, and I have faith that we will be able to convince enough young voters that it’s necessary for them to do so as well. So, your preference is duly noted… I hope we can count on your support, even if you don’t get exactly what you want, because people being unwilling to do that is how we ended up with Trump in the first place.
Rick, I showed great respect for your viewpoint… You’re not gonna convince me to adopt it. I simply disagree with you, but whatever happens I will be supporting the ticket 100% and working my ass off… I hope you will too even if not enough people agree with you to handle it the way you think it should be handled
We all know how important Gen Z-ers could be in the next election. Four million turn 18 each year and are potential voters in November. This year, many states are successfully ramping up their efforts to register young voters. According to the Civics Center, Colorado and Michigan, for example, have registered 69% and 63% of their young voters respectively. However in other states, the picture is much bleaker. As the Civics Center recently reported, New York has 150,000 unregistered 18 year olds with some counties with registration rates as low as 19%.
YourVoiceMatters.Vote, a program of the nonpartisan National Women’s Foundation, is working to encourage best practices to register young people in high school (see their website for information on youth voting in your state).
This year, YourVoiceMatters.vote worked with New Voters and other partners in DC, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Virginia to distribute cards to graduating seniors that congratulate them on their graduation and include a QR code with a link to register, check registration status, and make a pledge to vote this November.
They would like your help reaching new graduates in your community! You can go to their website and print and email cards to new graduates that you know! Every new voter from this next generation can help shape the future. Don't let them miss this crucial opportunity to make their voices heard.
I think this "Reform and Renewal" agenda is a great idea and will work especially with younger voters! the must learn how dangerous this MAGA court has become and how much they stand to loose in the years ahead. The overturning of Roe was my # 1 issue but now with Chevron and this Immunity disaster the court itself is # 1 for me. I am behind Joe Biden 100 % and so is everyone in my family and all of our friends. This court has changed the race for a lot of people and I believe it can get us to 55 and beyond! Hang in there everyone. Love and gratitude
Since June 22nd, when President Biden held a 0.3 percent lead, there has been a 1.6-percent swing towards Trump in 538’s average. That’s an average weighted in favor of more-reputable pollsters. So there is measurable movement, although hardly major or catastrophic.
That said, the race is still effectively tied. I think it quite likely that we’ll see more movement towards Biden after July 11th, when Trump is due to be sentenced after being found guilty of 34 felonies.
The 1.6-point swing in the 538 also is because of the NYT and QU polls that released before the debate. It also doesn't include their own poll, which Biden led by 2, and Ipsos' post-debate poll, which Biden also led by 2. It also counts McLaughlin (GOP pollster that gummed up the average with multiple samples).
It was a minor miracle that Biden led the 538 average. It was never going to last long.
There have been 1.5-2 point swings in all of the polling averages and this when the debate news is just starting the settle in. The issue of Biden's age will surpass all other issues if he stays in the race. I had a great deal of optimism up until the debate, but have been dismayed with the Biden camp's reaction. Just hunkering down and having him give a few brief speeches by teleprompter. If they were serious, Biden would make the rounds of every news show and demonstrate that he is up for this.
Granted, there is a major difference between a teleprompter-aided speech and an open interview or debate. On the other hand, Biden is not just a candidate but busy serving as president.
So now the President can’t use a teleprompter? Tell us just how would a replacement candidate fund and operate their campaign? How exactly will the replacement candidate appeal to the core base of the party after they kicked a sitting VP of their same background off the ticket? The second one of you remove Biden worrywarts can tell us how any of this would work in reality - not Aaron Sorkin fanfic - you would have a shred of credibility.
Nate - Aaron Sorkin fanfic here to explain how this would work in reality. Am I right that you wanted the information? We've been talking about Biden off the ticket, not Harris. I haven't mentioned that, have I? According to about 5 quick sources I just read (PBS, ABC, American Prospect, Morningstar, NBC, NY Post, and the best source of them all ,Valley News Live!) Harris could get to use the funds if she was on top of the ticket. If she wasn't on the ticket, to date, it seems like no one else could, but the day is young. I hope that answers at least one of the questions you asked last night. Signed - A loyal democrats Biden Worrywart.
I made the mistake of looking at 538’s forecast for the first time in a while today. All that did was bring all the stress and anxiety from yesterday back to the surface. I was trying to take a media diet this week for my mental health, but then SCOTUS decided to torpedo that idea.
Clara, my perspective might help with your angst. The truth is Joe Biden, with the support of his family, made the decision to stay in this race. He already earned the votes needed.
Those not getting those facts need to just be ignored as if they are disrobing in public. Joe is in charge of this, and they have no say. The detractors have no portfolio; hence, their whining and their barfing up hypotheticals to prove they are smart just needs to be ignored. Their voices will be fewer and not as loud as time passes. I am talking about a week from now, they will realize no one joined their foolish game because Joe Biden is one great President.
Clara, I understand your fear. Sometimes it helps to just sit down and observe the fear, let it be, and it will lessen. It's ok to be afraid; this is scary stuff we face. After that, get mad, and channel that anger into action. Turn off whatever causes the fear to increase. Stick with this community. I would also suggest listening to MeidasTouch network, Glenn Kirschner's YouTube channel, Brian Tyler Cohen, the LIncoln Project. There is a lot of good media out there for our side. Remember that we'd rather be us than them.
Huh? What internal leaked polling?
Lot’s of BS being slung. Not say there are not issues but it’s largely OK so far. Bloomberg poll with favorables, not big switch in choice (as far as I know). Polls are amazingly holding mostly steady. See link, paywall but you can make it out… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/biden-plummets-in-leaked-democratic-polling-memo-puck-says?embedded-checkout=true
Philadelphia Inquirer is a prominent exception.
I agree with everything you said. Joe Biden is the best president in my lifetime. Full Stop. And I'm a Boomer who has been voting since 1980. Donald is the worst president in the history of the country. Full Stop. The pundits on TV do not speak for me or for the Democratic Party. Full Stop. I'm giving myself permission to break up with the podcasters and TV hosts for a while.
Same here. Except for Lawrence O'Donnell, who is keeping his eye on the ball.
Yes, of course. Lawrence is a treasure.
I'm not sure what Simon has in mind for postcarding, but I do postcards with a bunch of organizations.
If you want to do voter registration, check out Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org). Their postcard page is found here: https://fieldteam6.herokuapp.com/. FT6 also partners with various organizations (e.g., Seniors Taking Action, Building Bridges for America) and has a partner webpage https://fieldteam6-partners.herokuapp.com/ which has different campaigns. You must set up the accounts separately, although you can use the same email address and password when you create the accounts.
If you want to do GOTV (get out the vote), then the first question is partisan (i.e., mentions candidates names) or non-partisan?
For partisan postcards, check out Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote), Grassroots Democrats (https://grassrootsdems.org), or Postcards to Voters (www.postcardstovoters.org). There is a lot of overlap in the first two options since Grassroots Dems sources many of their campaigns from Activate America. Postcards to Voters is the best option for Special Election campaigns or FL vote by Mail (VBM), but they make you jump through some hoops to become a volunteer and have the clunkiest system for requesting names and addresses.
If you are interested in GOTV in VA specifically, there is Postcards4VA (https://postcards4va.com/).
Most of the non-partisan postcard campaigns with which I am familiar require you to use specific postcards which they will either mail you for free (e.g., Postcards to Swing States[www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/], https://www.environmentalvoter.org/) or which you need to purchase (https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/). There is usually a minimum quantity (100 or 200) for each shipment, so be aware of how long you will have to write them before they must be mailed. (These very are good options if you have a group or club writing postcards or you are hosting a postcard party).
Environment Voter Project and Blue Wave Postcards both have much of the info preprinted on the postcards so the amount of writing is minimal; Blue Wave also sends you mailing labels.
Postcards to Swing States currently has statewide campaigns for 11 states - including NC and AZ. Next week they will be adding campaigns for key swing districts including all the ones that Hopium is supporting - plus a bunch of others. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise if Simon directs us to this goup.
Reclaim Our Vote (https://www.centerforcommonground.org/reclaim-our-vote) focuses on BIPOC voters in Southern states with restrictive voting laws. They require you to take a brief on-line training and use one of their culturally sensitive postcard designs. But the postcards do not mention a specific election; names and addresses are requested separately so you don't have to commit to a bunch of names at once. I bought postcards last year for a campaign in VA, but I used the leftover postcards for primary elections this year. NOTE: you are asked to print out labels with the specifics of each campaign, so I usually request 30 names & addresses at a time so as not to waste the sheet of address labels that I printed.
NOTE: Voter Registration and partisan GOTV campaigns are mostly mail as you go, but some may have a "hold until" date to mail them. Non-partisan GOTV campaigns usually are "hold until" with a mail date based on either the date of the state's primary or when early voting starts for the general election. If you don't have a convenient place to store completed postcards, this may influence your campaign choice.
You are welcome.
I forgot to mention, USPS is set to raise the rate on postage at the end of next week. Postcard stamps will go up 3 cents from $0.53 to $0.56 each. (First Class postage is also going up too). Even though they don't say it, postcard stamps are "Forever" stamps just like First Class, so I recommend stocking up before the price increase.
If you can't find any at your local post office, you can order them direct from USPS.com. There is a flat fee of a couple of bucks for online orders. While you are there check out the cool new first class stamp designs. (I also write letters for Vote Forward and opt for eye-catching designs instead of the boring flags). You may be surprised - there is a much bigger selection than your local Post Office is likely to have.
FYI: Beware of online sites promoting deeply discounted stamps - it is either a scam or the stamps they mail you are COUNTERFEIT!!
thank you
Just want to say that you are a rockstar! Thank you for always sharing resources! I thought I knew about all the postcard campaigns, but you led me to a new one, Center for Common Ground. I signed up! I am doing a few others but the focus of rural BIPOC voters made me so happy!
Thanks for the kind words Elena!💙💙💙
Cheryl, a huge thanks for spelling this all out. This is hugely helpful. Unfortunately, it's buried in a long string of comments. I wonder if Simon could put this somewhere on the Substack web page and/or include it in one of his daily emails. I'm sure there are a lot of people who want to write postcards and don't know how or where to start.
Great idea! I'll write postcard for anyone on the ticket. Biden, Harris, Pete, Gretchen, Amy....anyone who has a reasonable chance of beating Trump!
The Layoff numbers are in. Joe Biden is on track to oversee the four lowest years on record for layoffs.
Currently Joe Biden has overseen 31 million fewer layoffs than the equivalent month in Donald Trumps term.
Edit: Data for those interested - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/JTS000000000000000LDL
Question: Does that count only those workers laid off by employers? Or does it also include people who quit – perhaps to go to a better job, start their own business, enroll in further education or training, or who choose to take early retirement and enjoy life?
The Jolts layoffs and discharges are people separated from their job not by their choice. So Firings and Layoffs.
Essentially it means that jobs are more secure under Joe Biden than any president since they started tracking this number.
Quits is another number, I have not been tracking it in as close but a casual glance will show that Joe Biden has over seen far and away more Quits, Employees leaving a position by their own decision, than any other president since record keeping began. The last few months have been his lowest for quits and they are comparable to Trumps best months.
Thanks, Josh!
Border crossings down below Trump numbers. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/border-crossings-us-mexico-border-june-2024/
We're Number 1! https://www.bea.gov/news/glance
I wonder whether The New York Times and the Washington Post are covering this – perhaps prominently at the bottom of page 6, as a single-paragraph article with a headline that twists this into "bad for Biden".
NYT actually had a long piece on Trump retweeting calls for imprisioning opponents - something right out of Meidas. I spit out my coffee.
The Fed's preferred inflation measure was flat in May just like CPI, incomes were up:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2024
Came out on Friday, so no one noticed.
Simon, I believe we should draft a bullet point email outlining the objectives of Project 2025. This email could be shared with all your followers and they can forward to family and friends, and they can also ask them to forward the email to their family and friends. We need to spread the word and inform potential voters what is at stake.
You can find a PDF breakdown at the following link from https://www.stopthecoup2025.org/
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6547d46ce0be13435001c0ad/t/663d101970106d75bbfce2c0/1715277849753/REVISED+12.16+_For+Release_%7B10+pgs%7D_Key+Proposals+of+Project+2025+by+Stop+the+Coup+2025.pdf
The Biden Campaign has a link you can share.If you click on each > on the bottom they expand.📣
https://joebiden.com/project2025/
And have the Headline be:
TRUMP'S PLAN FOR AMERICA : PROJECT 2025
Simon, I’m really scared. Do you really think there’s still hope for American democracy in the wake of the SCOTUS ruling?
They are helping Trump avoid accountability for the moment. Honestly I wouldn't put anything past the Roberts court. But don't let that paralyze you with fear - because that's what they want! I'm scared as well, but the worst thing any of us can do is let it stop us in our tracks. Let us ensure this is a galvanizing event that leads to that many more voters turning up this fall to say " No you fucking don't !" with their ballots. Remember to keep calm & campaign on my friend.
I hear you, and I hear all others here, and I’m so grateful for this community. And full disclosure, I’m an English major with an anxiety disorder, so I (a) don’t know how politics works and (b) always assume the worst. The worst in this case being: Now that the court has proven it doesn’t give a damn about the Constitution, couldn’t it just pick the president it wants, like it did in 2000?
The media isn't helping either. I'm still hearing talk on NPR from analysts who are assuming the debate was a serious setback for Biden, even before there's any data to demonstrate that. One guy said that Democratic donors, in private, are talking about putting their dollars toward efforts to regain the House, presumably instead of toward the presidential campaign.
Analysts paid for sound bites. They know better but c'est la vie. Don't let them get to ya.
Stephen, my heart goes out to you. Please keep reading the other comments from your fellow subscribers at Hopium Chronicles — I believe that’ll help.
That is exactly what they will try to do, no matter how big a Biden/Democrat landslide there is.
Stephen, I second the idea of taking time to read the comments here and in other of Simon's posts.
After the debate, I was spiraling, so I spent most of the next three days reading Simon's posts and hundreds of comments, and my fear turned into resolve. Simon's mantra "do more, worry less" isn't a platitude. It actually works! It's given me a mission and a task, and it makes all the difference.
Last night I finished addressing 200 postcards, and today I bought 400 stamps! So I've already committed to another 200 cards. I have lots of worries, so I just channel them into GOTV. It's excellent therapy.
We can't control what the WH or scotus or gov't does, but we can control what we do. Being part of this great community and partaking in good works at this time in our history is, to me, an honor. We're being called to participate, to help save our democracy. I can think of no more important work at this time. And every little bit helps.
About the scotus...they have wildly overreached with this decision, and I have a feeling that they have just motivated and mobilized an entire swath of people who will help get us over the finish line in Nov. They may not see the backlash coming, but it's coming.
You are not alone. Keep the faith. We are in this together!!! 💙🇺🇸
Thank you for this kind comment. It was just what I needed to hear.
I am so glad it helped.
I'm dreading the future too, but we've got to do what we can, you know?
We cannot let every demoralizing event paralyze us.
An evil President who wants to break the law always thinks he's invincible. Trump already did. Nixon did ("when the President does it, it's not illegal"). The danger to democracy is re-electing Trump. Re-elect Biden, get a trifecta, and we start getting options to reform SCOTUS or at least replace a couple of justices (since Trump will surely appeal convictions on the basis of this ruling, there could be many chances for a changed court to overturn it in the coming years).
Remember: All we need is the chance to replace Thomas and Alito, and 3-6 becomes 5-4.
I've heard more than one person mention Thomas and Alito retiring soon. How likely is it that they would retire during a second Biden administration? Wouldn't they instead decide to stay another four years?
That may not be a choice they get to make. Like with RBG, the GOP may be sorry they didn't retire while Trump was President.
Not sure I understand you. As I see it, that *is* a choice they can make. If Biden gets re-elected, they just wait it out another 4 years. If Thomas and Alito want a GOP president to nominate their replacements, there would be no incentive for them to retire before 2028. Right?
Joe is referring to mortality.
When FDR took on the Court over the New Deal, he didn't even have to actually make any changes. The realization that he was serious and that he had the power was enough. One justice resigned and the rest of the hold-outs got in line.
If we get enforceable ethics rules, return to Congress the power to pass some laws as not subject to judicial review (as was the norm for centuries), and put in place either term limits or court expansion or both, this bunch of horse thieves will head for the hills.
With a trifecta, maybe they could be impeached and removed. Reform will be possible.
Re impeaching them, that requires a super-majority in the Senate (67). The House only needs a majority. It's doable if we crank up our efforts even more, especially in red states that have senators up for election.
Or indictments for taking bribes from Russian backed sources. Just saying. Hard to take away my right to bodily autonomy when you're in handcuffs.
"An evil President who wants to break the law always thinks he's invincible."
This is one of the few times in life where I find myself hoping for a lodged chicken bone. A sudden and "divinely-inspired withdrawal from the presidential race..."
Also, not for nothing: Biden has this same immunity. That means any plans Trump had of prosecuting him in a second term for some made up crime just went out the window. If Cannon tries to toss the Special Counsel, Hunter's conviction goes away and his trial in September gets cancelled. Trump's Justice Department actually made lots of use of the Special Counsel (Hur, Durham, and Weiss) to persecute people. No more.
Everything Trump and others are doing to protect him just creates more problems for them. They're like Sideshow Bob stepping on rakes.
According to Heather Cox Richardson, the decision was written to make the Supreme Court the ultimate decider of what is official or unofficial. So in effect, it would not necessarily protect Biden.
And please excuse me if I’m not interpreting her correctly.
It's my understanding as well.
Why not just do away with the presidency altogether, along with the congress, and anoint themselves the Imperial Supremes?
Simon, really looking forward to your coming interviews with our great Congressional candidates!
There's a lot of breathtakingly bad commentary here (the poll says Biden leads, the commentary says his "presidency is imploding" - give me a break), but these are the TIPP results (I'm not paying this guy for crosstabs):
https://tippinsights.com/biden-trump-knotted-in-july-poll-but-debate-disaster-could-lead-to-big-changes-i-i-tipp-poll/
Don't believe the headline - we know that there have been no big changes so far. Morning Consult's weekly panel today is Trump +1 compared to last week's tie, but that's a meaningless movement (and they found Biden +1 on Friday). It's weird that TIPP, whose results have been spectacularly steady throughout the year, would forecast "big changes" as a result of anything, let alone a debate.
Also, Biden's run of strong speeches continued last night: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtc_n4Tqr8k. They should turn "I Dissent" into a bumper sticker slogan like they did with "Nevertheless, She Persisted".
I heard a long time ago that the worst personal insult in China is "one who does not know history."
I dare say this: The conservative majority at SCOTUS has either forgotten or does not know history.
Let us not forget this country's origin, which began with dissent against the English Crown and culminated with the American Revolution.
Here is a slogan I came up with, which I am hoping President Biden and the Democrats would adopt:
"With hope and resolve for democracy, I DISSENT! I DISSENT! I DISSENT!"
[My apologies to Justice Sotomayor. ❤️❤️]
P. S. I am not Chinese. I am Japanese by birth and (proudly) American by choice.
why can’t Biden use his new power given to him by the Supreme Court to do things before his term ends!
I think he can. But it would be a lot easier if the Democrats maintained or increased their majority in the Senate.
The President nominates judges. It is the Senate who confirms them.
Because it seems courts get to decide what an “official action” is.
How do you define an official action? The Supreme Court didn’t say, but I’m guessing with this current court it’s anything a Republican does and nothing a Democrat does.
Bingo! 🎯
He already did. He denounced his opponent in an official address to the nation with the White House as a backdrop, which is technically a violation of the Hatch Act. I think that was meant as a message.
Never thought of that -- good point!
We' still have the capacity to overwhelm them at the ballot box. Millions of unregistered folk trend heavily Democratic. Register them to save democracy. Gen Z can outnumber them.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
We should still try!
Young voters, especially women, are tuned in to the loss of their freedom to make their own reproductive health decisions. Many more young voters are tuned in to our burning planet. Don't count them out.
Rick, I respect that this is your opinion of the best way forward… You may get your wish… I don’t happen to agree, but whether you think it’s stupid or not, I haven’t lost faith that we’re going to be able to turn out the vote against the worst candidate in American history, no matter who Our ticket is comprised of, and I have faith that we will be able to convince enough young voters that it’s necessary for them to do so as well. So, your preference is duly noted… I hope we can count on your support, even if you don’t get exactly what you want, because people being unwilling to do that is how we ended up with Trump in the first place.
Rick, I showed great respect for your viewpoint… You’re not gonna convince me to adopt it. I simply disagree with you, but whatever happens I will be supporting the ticket 100% and working my ass off… I hope you will too even if not enough people agree with you to handle it the way you think it should be handled
We also do data mining to see what works with certain targets. We do text, postcards, phone, and if necessary send canvassers.
They are also motivated by women's health and turned off by rapists and tariffs.
The media and the Republicans are depressing enough. Don't bring it here yourself.
I beg to differ. Youth vote when it matters to them. Take a look back at 2018 and 2020.
Rick, tone it down, please. Not appropriate sentiment here.
I’ve read their writings about:
1. Concern about climate change
2. Losing reproductive health rights
3. Gun Safety so their schools stop being target zones.
4. LBGQT rights
Seattle High School students have made a difference in their school programs through their activism.
From Jess Craven Today, some other ways:
Register Young Voters! 🗳️
We all know how important Gen Z-ers could be in the next election. Four million turn 18 each year and are potential voters in November. This year, many states are successfully ramping up their efforts to register young voters. According to the Civics Center, Colorado and Michigan, for example, have registered 69% and 63% of their young voters respectively. However in other states, the picture is much bleaker. As the Civics Center recently reported, New York has 150,000 unregistered 18 year olds with some counties with registration rates as low as 19%.
YourVoiceMatters.Vote, a program of the nonpartisan National Women’s Foundation, is working to encourage best practices to register young people in high school (see their website for information on youth voting in your state).
This year, YourVoiceMatters.vote worked with New Voters and other partners in DC, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Virginia to distribute cards to graduating seniors that congratulate them on their graduation and include a QR code with a link to register, check registration status, and make a pledge to vote this November.
They would like your help reaching new graduates in your community! You can go to their website and print and email cards to new graduates that you know! Every new voter from this next generation can help shape the future. Don't let them miss this crucial opportunity to make their voices heard.
https://yourvoicematters.vote/
I think this "Reform and Renewal" agenda is a great idea and will work especially with younger voters! the must learn how dangerous this MAGA court has become and how much they stand to loose in the years ahead. The overturning of Roe was my # 1 issue but now with Chevron and this Immunity disaster the court itself is # 1 for me. I am behind Joe Biden 100 % and so is everyone in my family and all of our friends. This court has changed the race for a lot of people and I believe it can get us to 55 and beyond! Hang in there everyone. Love and gratitude
Your main issues (along with a 4th and perhaps others) could be an effective bumper sticker / billboard:
Vote blue because:
1. Roe
2. Chevron
3. Immunity
4. Climate
Those who know how to word these more effectively and succinctly for various platforms should have at it.
Democrats must unite behind Joe Biden and vote on Day 1!
The President must continue to rally his supporters with his strong message of Freedom and Democracy!
I hope he’ll soon weather this storm of naysayers!
Since June 22nd, when President Biden held a 0.3 percent lead, there has been a 1.6-percent swing towards Trump in 538’s average. That’s an average weighted in favor of more-reputable pollsters. So there is measurable movement, although hardly major or catastrophic.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
That said, the race is still effectively tied. I think it quite likely that we’ll see more movement towards Biden after July 11th, when Trump is due to be sentenced after being found guilty of 34 felonies.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
I hope we’ll soon see more high-quality polls from the various swing states.
The 1.6-point swing in the 538 also is because of the NYT and QU polls that released before the debate. It also doesn't include their own poll, which Biden led by 2, and Ipsos' post-debate poll, which Biden also led by 2. It also counts McLaughlin (GOP pollster that gummed up the average with multiple samples).
It was a minor miracle that Biden led the 538 average. It was never going to last long.
And right on schedule, here comes CNN/SSRS and HarrisX to re-establish the big wall of red garbage. Well, it was fun, 538.
There have been 1.5-2 point swings in all of the polling averages and this when the debate news is just starting the settle in. The issue of Biden's age will surpass all other issues if he stays in the race. I had a great deal of optimism up until the debate, but have been dismayed with the Biden camp's reaction. Just hunkering down and having him give a few brief speeches by teleprompter. If they were serious, Biden would make the rounds of every news show and demonstrate that he is up for this.
Granted, there is a major difference between a teleprompter-aided speech and an open interview or debate. On the other hand, Biden is not just a candidate but busy serving as president.
So now the President can’t use a teleprompter? Tell us just how would a replacement candidate fund and operate their campaign? How exactly will the replacement candidate appeal to the core base of the party after they kicked a sitting VP of their same background off the ticket? The second one of you remove Biden worrywarts can tell us how any of this would work in reality - not Aaron Sorkin fanfic - you would have a shred of credibility.
Nate - Aaron Sorkin fanfic here to explain how this would work in reality. Am I right that you wanted the information? We've been talking about Biden off the ticket, not Harris. I haven't mentioned that, have I? According to about 5 quick sources I just read (PBS, ABC, American Prospect, Morningstar, NBC, NY Post, and the best source of them all ,Valley News Live!) Harris could get to use the funds if she was on top of the ticket. If she wasn't on the ticket, to date, it seems like no one else could, but the day is young. I hope that answers at least one of the questions you asked last night. Signed - A loyal democrats Biden Worrywart.
I made the mistake of looking at 538’s forecast for the first time in a while today. All that did was bring all the stress and anxiety from yesterday back to the surface. I was trying to take a media diet this week for my mental health, but then SCOTUS decided to torpedo that idea.