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Shmoobly's avatar

Dan, one suggestion to translate your post into 'Do More Worry Less" is: Get anyone you know who has a Twitter account to tweet those points, be Loud and Proud! And/or make those points in letters to the editor in as many news outlets as you can find!

And, you'll make Michelle Obama proud when ya "do something!"

GO Team Hopium GO GO GO 🥥🌴💪

Back to my postcarding now ..

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Dana F. Blankenhorn's avatar

The ad could have been done by The Lincoln Project. They're better at it.

The strategy should be to ignore the Corporate Media and go to the people about their real concerns. They're with us on the issues.

Stop pretending there's some magical middle, which always moves to the right with each cycle, as the Corporate Press demands fealty to its demands. The center is moving slightly left. Go there. Tack with the wind, not against it.

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SCS - Michigan's avatar

I liked this ad. Wish I could find out if it resonates with Kamala-curious R's. (MAGA's are a waste of effort.)

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kdsherpa's avatar

I think this ad is pitch-perfect just as it is. LP has lots of great commercials, but this one is so straightforward that it is impossible to ignore.

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Patrick's avatar

I thought it was pretty good myself. I can't imagine how anyone could watch it and think, "yep, voting for Trump anyhow." I know that will happen but that is enough to disqualify anyone.

Maybe instead of trying to get every transgression addressed, pick one or two and go after him nonstop in the debate, and make a never ending ad out of him being unable to respond. For example, he'll never be able to respond to his insane Truth Social posts about jailing his enemies (including people who donated to Harris's campaign). Get him on record not being able to respond and then just air it over and over.

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Catherine Giovannoni's avatar

Thanks, Simon. Today is a phone banking day for me. I hope the Harris campaign plans to do real-time fact checking on Trump since the media won't. I wanted to share this resource, National Security Leaders for America. One of my neighbors is a member. They're doing good work raising the alarm about a 2nd Trump term and debunking some of the Trump lies about Afghanistan. https://www.nsl4a.org

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Daniel Solomon's avatar

FT6 sent over a million texts to GA and FL over the weekend. Need phone banking and canvassing to close the deal.

The electorate is not set... yet. Millions of potential Harris voters are not registered ... yet. She trends 60% with women, the same with young people, 70% with tenants in the blue wall swing states. Now is the hour to expand our base significantly.

FT 6 calls primarily unregistered people who trend Democratic...mostly women. Usually don't have to do a lot of persuading.

https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops/volunteer

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ArcticStones's avatar

Hear, hear! In my humble opinion, this is some of the most important work we can do. Moreover, it is quick and has a proven track record of being very effective!

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kdsherpa's avatar

Where can I buy the "Vote on Day 1" postcards? (I like them better than the ones I ordered that simply say "Vote" with the picture of a blue wave.)

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Sarah B's avatar

Thank you so much for this, I've been texting with them for weeks, will pivot to phonebanking!!!

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Sara Frischer's avatar

Thank you Simon!!

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Chris Ortolano's avatar

I went into the cross-tabs of the NYT polls, It seems to me they are still over sampling republicans, conservatives, and Moderates; while under sampling people between 18-44. I was hoping for your thoughts on this and whatever Nate Silver is trying to prove with his nonsense.

Update: I'm new here, so I didn't know Simon had already talked about this.

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Jes Merrell's avatar

Beginning to sense some cranium malfunction in dear Nate. His book is total gibberish and his "model" is badly flawed, as he now sometimes admits.

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Meg Green's avatar

I’ve heard…not confirmed!…that he’s now owned by Peter Thiel. Assuming it’s so…it confirms that money is the root of all evil.

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ArcticStones's avatar

And evangelical Christianists. This is consistently one of the most Trump-leaning polls.

Simon has repeatedly commented on the NYT/Siena poll. No need to do so again.

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Chris Ortolano's avatar

Did he? I must have missed it. I'm a new member.

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ArcticStones's avatar

I’m sorry I don’t have a link for you. Maybe someone else can help?

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Cindy H's avatar

I don't have a link - but he has said to ignore Nate Silver in the comments

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Ben H's avatar

Not sure what more you want Simon to dig into here.

NYT/Sienna has had questionable methodology all year and instead of admitting when they’re the outlier, they say actually everyone else is getting it wrong. What more analysis is there other than they think 2024 will be like 2016 and are over sampling republicans to reflect that belief? Simon had paragraphs on why he thinks that’s flawed logic.

And Nate Silver has lost the plot. He works for Polymarket (and Peter Thiel).He is not an unbiased source of analysis.

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Chris Ortolano's avatar

Wow, I didn't know that he completely went to the dark side. Peter Thiel huh? Very sad.

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Cindy H's avatar

It's hard to keep track of everything. Welcome to Hopium. Even when I know better, sometimes, I get anxious with these polls and the media narrative.

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Jarrod Emerson's avatar

It's hard not to. Especially if you crave validation like me. There is a rush I feel if I see a poll telling me something I want to hear/see. Even though I know better, I still have to remind myself.

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Karen Desjardin's avatar

Yes, Nate Silver is doing his own Right Wing Cheerleading Dance Routine. He is paid for by the same oligarch that funded JD Vance. ABC now owns 538 polling averages. Sometimes it is helpful to check in on 538. It is never helpful, IMHO, to check in on Nate. I personally am very disappointed that so many sites continue to platform him.

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Jarrod Emerson's avatar

I always point out - I stopped listening to him after 2022 - actually correction - I stopped listening to him in the lead up. Looks like ABC smelled the same thing I did!

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TC's avatar

"He works for Polymarket (and Peter Thiel).He is not an unbiased source of analysis.".

Huh. Did not know that. Explains a lot actually.

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Brady's avatar

Agreed. Literally every NYT/Sienna poll skews to Trump. I don't really believe those...they're consistently an outlier.

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Jes Merrell's avatar

With you 1000%.

Please offer your thoughts on why 70+ million Americans are totally entranced by Trump. I am fast reaching the dreadful conclusion that we do not have a Trump problem, we have a mass (ive) failure of our national heritage that involves 40+% of our fellow citizens. You?

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ArcticStones's avatar

My take? It’s a cult – sadly it has become the MAGA megachurch.

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Cindy H's avatar

Honestly, I think most of it is based on racism - well the one percenters want their tax cuts. So, a cult of racists, I guess?

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kdsherpa's avatar

"Racialism" as my pro-trump brother calls it. Great way to try to intellectualize racism.

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Cindy H's avatar

I hadn't heard this term. SMH

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kdsherpa's avatar

I think he made it up quite a long time ago. He's WAY deep in the white supremacy movement for the past 45 years. He's written a lot of the propaganda that I constantly hear bandied around by the maggots. (You'd never believe it, but he's a very sweet guy. He has autism and only thinks in statistics. Getting with these horrible groups has given him the first sense of belonging he's ever had. For what it's worth, his IQ is 165.)

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Cindy H's avatar

I am so sorry. Tragic that he would fall into such an evil group.

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Annie D Stratton's avatar

The term racialism has been around for a long time, at least since the late 1800s. It originally was used interchangably with racism, and means the same thing, the main difference seeming to be how dirty your hands got in applying it. The term is preferred by people who wear nice clothes and read books to whitewash (sorry) their attitudes toward people they deem of less value by dint of color or culture.

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ArcticStones's avatar

In addition to the racism and tribalism, Trump has given his followers "license to rage".

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Cindy H's avatar

Exactly right.

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Ben H's avatar

Unfortunately politics has become a team sport and our self-selecting filter bubbles (brought on by increasingly fragmented news and media) cement our world views. Breaking through that is incredibly tough work.

Time to keep doing the hard work to make our country better and continue to win over young people.

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TC's avatar

I feel Maga support can be explained by the attitude of "I am doing fine but I would prefer if the government would not help others catch up to or possibly surpass me." Trump and maga supporters fear losing what they have if someone else gains. So the underlying message of maga is "if you feel you are doing well then why does anyone else need help at your expense?" Pretty subtle and powerful messaging that keeps Trump's numbers up because compared to the rest of the world most Americans are doing VERY well.

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Kristine O’Reilly's avatar

I think if you look back to 2016, I believe there are several reasons why MAGAS inexplicably support TRUMP, even when it’s against their own best interests:

Those who listened to the Rush Limbaughs of that era were largely white men that thrived on grievances they had been angry about for years…

1) racism: “they’re taking our jobs; they’re behind all the crime; we’ll be the minority soon and will lose the superior status we

are used to and deserve”).

2) misogyny (“I’m sick of women telling us how to act, what to do or say or not say at work, at home. The only time I can say or do what I want is with the guys—but now Trump is saying it for me so I can get away with secretly agreeing with him but still stay in women’s good graces.”

3. flawed reasoning: “I don’t believe the election was stolen (or a lot of the other stuff he says) but I pretend to believe it so I can support Trump under the cover of “policies.” That way I can still get him to do my dirty work of racism, misogyny and authoritarianism, which I I support because I too am an authoritarian. He can say everything out loud while I hide behind his Trumped up immigration, abortion and economy lies. I don’t care if he lies and spews hate as long as I benefit. So I will double down on making people believe I support him because I also want power.”

Harsh? I’m sure there are better ways to say this and there are those that just want their taxes to stay unreasonably low. But how else do you explain how this cult survives and thrives? They want the power he has and will do or say anything to keep it. Unwittingly or not.

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kdsherpa's avatar

Not harsh.

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MaryCFM's avatar

Trump got his following from 2 places. All the white guys who loved to Hate Hillary Lady McBeth. And the right to lifers who saw in tRump a strong guy who would carry them to the goal. They love that he knocks everyone down. They have one issue. Criminalize abortion healthcare. I was door knocking and the white guys all lied to me. Saying they were open minded but then you could tell they support tRump,

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Annie D Stratton's avatar

Only harsh because it is the truth that tries to stay hidden.

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Patrick E. White's avatar

Excellent analysis. Trump doesn't give a damn one way or other about abortion or

most other things -- though he clearly is a racist and cannot stand being around difference of any kind --but his real gift honed over many years of narcissism is to discover whatever path of least resistance or path that will get him the most love even from people he can't stand.

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Virginia Shultz-Charette's avatar

When I was a student we were required to take a year of Civics. Many of us also took Problems of Democracy in which we had to do debates! U.S. History and Western Civilization were required. In the younger grades we played games with the huge maps. Two students would go up to the maps. The teacher would name a city, state, or a country and the first to find it would take on another student, rinse and repeat, the last student standing would win a prize. I won a book Presidents and their Wives (this was a long time ago, the President was Eisenhower) . In another class, if you finished the work assigned in third grade, you could read one of the books on the classes bookshelf, I always chose biographies of women,and after I grew up, I became an historian in large part because of those biographies and the history classes I was required to take. Oh, and I forgot to mention, we had mock Presidential elections in junior high and high school.

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kdsherpa's avatar

The Civics requirement ended in 1969, the year before my Senior year. We all celebrated the fact that we didn't have to take this course which was considered dry and boring. What a terrible thing that decision has turned out to be.

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Virginia Shultz-Charette's avatar

It is a tragedy that important parts of education have been eliminated or undercut, to the detriment of society. Think of Florida and its policy toward black history- maybe that really deserves the term "white-washing". Disgusting!

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MaryCFM's avatar

Virginia. You had the education my older brother and husband received. Being a baby boomer was when everything changed. Geography out. Latin out. Civics out. Your classes sound wonderfully engaging!!

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Steve's avatar

Hi Mary,

I'm a young boomer so at least we had School House Rock! "I'm Just a Bill" is one I remember and is ingrained in my understanding of part of the democratic process. (Sadly, those lessons are ignored by so many of my generation)

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Virginia Shultz-Charette's avatar

And I had Latin! Really helped out on the vocabulary portion of the SAT's! I graduated in 1968, but didn't go to college until the 1980s. I was so hungry to learn I took far more classes than I needed at a community college. After I received my M.A., I went back to that college to teach, but no longer did they offer classes like Russian History thru Literature or Shakespeare but instead just offered classes students probably should have received in high school. For example, the students complained that instead of just offering Western Civ. they should be offered World History. Instead, the powers that be decided that they needed to slash the humanities and offer more technical subjects which is fine in moderation, but you lose the thought processes that you gain from the humanities- and the knowledge of the world and how it works, and it shows.

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Britta R's avatar

IMHO (and in supplement to the excellent answers already given to this query), misinformation is an ENORMOUS part of the problem. We used to have a national public square. Now people can choose their preferred media, social or otherwise, and entities that do not wish us well have unfettered access directly to ppl’s eyes and minds. People don’t have to have their thoughts and beliefs challenged, and can live in a self-curated information bubble, reinforced/amplified by literal psy-ops. Solving the problem will be complex, and as a society we will have to put boundaries around the first amendment. It’s doable, but we have 70,000,000 plus people to deprogram. (It would be helpful if we could give a civics refresher while we are deprogramming, but one step at a time!). I’d start with requiring any account that can post publicly-available content to verify as a human being, and while it’s not necessary for that human’s identity to be public, it IS necessary for any and all platforms to be able to identify the person behind every single account, if necessary. (Yes it will make data security all the more important, but it’s not like we don’t already have a data security issue.)

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Karen Desjardin's avatar

I found it helpful to read Steven Hassan's book "The Cult of Trump" which he wrote in 2019. He correctly predicted Trump would never concede and would call for violence. Hassan also offers helpful ways to deal with those who get caught up in cults or are under the influence of controlling people.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Great ad skewering traitorous Trump! And great policies from Kamala Harris!

I do hope the Harris-Walz Campaign or – better yet, a respected neutral party – puts up live fact-checking. Kamala Harris can refer to it at the very beginning of the debate while pointing out time does not allow her to detail Trump’s gush of lies.

Perhaps she can just voice the damning mantra: "That’s a lie." For variation: "There you go again."

But first, at the very start of the debate, she can calmly say what Simon once suggested:

"Before we start, Donald, I would like to thank your parole officer for giving you permission to be here for tonight’s debate."

EDIT:

"No, Donald. Under our policies the stock market has climbed to record heights. Whereas the shares in your "Truth Social" are in free fall. This is why economists have warned it would be catastrophic for America to have you anywhere near the White House again."

(Note: Perhaps Stephen Colbert can be invited to contribute some additional zingers.)

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Bill McClain's avatar

And maybe quote President Clinton: “Don’t count the lies, count the I’s.”

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kdsherpa's avatar

Yes! Great advice!

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ArcticStones's avatar

Q. "Mr Trump, how have you been preparing for tomorrow’s Presidential Debate?"

A. "Lots of Executive Time with the three most brilliant and important people in the world: Me, Myself and I."

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Calvin P's avatar

And Matt Gaetz apparently.

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Catherine Giovannoni's avatar

Agree. The campaign should do real-time fact checking and it would be great for her to reference it.

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Paul Furiga's avatar

Simon, thanks for sharing the longer MSNBC clip of the Vice President at Penzeys Spices here in Pittsburgh. Sadly, the business has been flooded with negative MAGA hate and reviews after that heartwarming visit, leading the owners to add a page on the company website with an explanation and repudiation of Trump. The website seems to be down as I write this (denial of service attack??) but here's a Newsweek story about the backlash: https://www.newsweek.com/spice-shop-penzeys-kamala-harris-negative-reviews-republicans-1950591. Also, my office in downtown Pittsburgh is across the intersection from the hotel where debate prep is occurring. It's been fun to go in and out of the building and be reminded that a brighter future is taking shape at the William Penn Hotel. And for what it's worth, the Trumpikins protesting her debate prep have varied from 0 to 6 from my direct observation, truly underwhelming.

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Ctkat1's avatar

Penzeys came out very strong against Trump in 2016 and has maintained that, so they’re used to weathering the MAGA hate storm, unfortunately.

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Donna PG's avatar

I love the owner for holding to his principles!!! And I love his products, which I found out about back in the early 2000s!!!

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Ctkat1's avatar

I love their spices! They’re really good, especially their spice mixes.

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kdsherpa's avatar

I'd heard about the MAGA hate mail of Penzeys Spices. I assumed it was because the store catered to Mexican immigrants! WOW! What a beautiful thing to watch! I found myself smiling a gigantic smile throughout -- and boy, has that been a long, long time coming. As in 9 years.

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Julie Kaufman's avatar

This clip/story is an example the best of US!! SHARE- send to your friends, family, social networks--- we have huge power relationally to counter propaganda and disinformation!! Add the newsweek clip and here is link to their statement regarding their stance on the monstrous thing people still identify as the republican party- it's a powerful statement!

https://www.penzeys.com/shop/about-republicans/

While you're there, maybe purchase some spices, too!! Stronger together, united we win!!

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Steve's avatar

I've bought spices online from Penny's for years, Of course I love the spices, but I especially love their brave and thoughtful stance against hatred, bigotry and authoritarianism. I have to admit that seeing the free "Embrace Hope" magnet on my fridge they gave men led me to a place of peace and calm during the pandemic and afterwards earn I needed it. I have an "Embrace Hope" pin on the jacket I wear most. To me, they exemplify everything Harris-Walz are running on.

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Kati Kertesz's avatar

Crying my eyes out and heart full from the MSNBC clip. Love Penzeys spices. Thank you, Paul for comment.

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Tim Wegener's avatar

I love that Simon laid out all of this today. I just saw a post yesterday on Threads that lays out how the Republican-affiliated polls are overwhelming the polling averages again, just like in 2022. Here is the thread if you want to look. https://www.threads.net/@nycjayjay/post/C_oREnhvHsA?xmt=AQGz6LFylzX2GXzX_xKHmA6f9qQIxzF-_Jcn9trqSxrBlA Polling is being weaponized again and we have to just keep doing our work.

We have the upper hand, we have the enthusiasm, and we have the numbers. We have to just keep doing the work of making calls and knocking on doors. If you don't live in a battleground state, pick up a phone bank shift into a battleground state please. If you live in a battleground state or if you can get to a battleground state, then please pick up a canvassing shift.

I can't wait for tomorrow night!

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Janice Fahy's avatar

The Rumpublican Party is scared of us and they should be! It's very encouraging - watching Trump and his evil GOP minions shaking in their shoes whenever the subject of abortion access arises! I'm completely inoculated against the "red-waving" that the GOP keeps trying to make happen for this election. As I am constantly telling all those nutters at NRO, the blue wave that began to swell in the 2022 midterms has not yet begun to crest!

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Ben H's avatar

Great stuff in the issues section. Can’t wait to see her bring that to the American people tomorrow night. She will look exceptionally qualified and capable when compared against Trumps increasingly unintelligible rants.

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Jon Bierman's avatar

Hopium volunteer postcard writers: Reminder there are still LOTS of great addresses remaining for Janelle Bynum (OR-05), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06), Josh Riley (NY-19), Will Rollins (CA-41), and George Whitesides (CA-27). You can also sign up to write (or phone bank) for Mondaire Jones (NY-17) this Thursday evening! Both new and experienced postcard writers and phone bankers welcome each week! For more information, visit www.WinningTheHouse.com.

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Rosemary Sellers's avatar

It’s annoying to only be able to get 10 at a time. Can they up it to 20?

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Jon Bierman's avatar

I'm also a volunteer writer so I don't know the answer to your question. I'd recommend emailing winningthehouse2024@gmail.com and hopefully they'll let you know if it's possible!

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Alice's avatar

you should be able to change the value of how many you want. Is that not possible for you?

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Jon Bierman's avatar

Interesting - I just looked again and it says near the top, you can order up to 10 addresses. But in small print below the box to select address bundle size, it says you can order between 1 and 464 addresses. I just ordered 11 new addresses for Josh Riley and received 11 as requested.

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Alice's avatar

let me reach out to the winning the house people(I am a moderator) and see if they can change that.

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Ross J Bernstein's avatar

just learned that 200,000 evangelicals are supporting the vice president

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ArcticStones's avatar

And probably millions of Black and Hispanic evangelicals.

("Evangelicals" has, strangely and incorrectly, become shorthand for "White evangelicals".)

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kdsherpa's avatar

Fingers crossed. I remember reading that a lot of Hispanic evangelicals in Florida who didn't speak English only being exposed to pro-orange sadist propaganda in All-Spanish channels. I hope that has changed.

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PeachBlossom's avatar

Can you give us a link to that info? I'd like to see it firsthand and be uplifted by it!

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C Green's avatar

To understand the Trump phenomenon, read The Cult of Trump by Steven Hassan. Coming very soon, forensic psychologist Dr. Bandy Lee and her colleagues will be holding an all-day event at The National Press Club. This is the beginning of a massive public education program on the dangerousness and unfitness of Trump.

Also most importantly, Dr. Allan Lichtman, co-creator of the 13 Keys to the White House, has just predicted that Kamala Harris will win. He has successfully predicted all presidential elections since his first prediction in 1984.

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Linda (Evanston IL)'s avatar

Wonder if the event at The National Press Club will be on CSPAN

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Alondra's avatar

"She behaves more like a human..." - that about sums it up. More like a sane, compassionate, smart, law-abiding human.

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PianoManSteve's avatar

I’m so bummed I haven’t been able to do any of the Thursday night events with all you guys! I picked up a residency performing every Thursday through Sunday evening one of the local haunts, but every Saturday morning for the last two months I’ve gotten my sister and mother together for an hour to write cards (progressive turnout pac)… We just burned through our 3000th headed into Pennsylvania, and we’re going to double it to two hour sessions for the rest of the campaign… I’m also hoping that I can do some door knocking for the Nebraska Democratic Party to help with the blue dot. Keep kicking ass everybody!

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Alice's avatar

Hope the residency is going well.

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PianoManSteve's avatar

Musician’s life: any night you’re earning a check is a good night! 😂

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