Republicans Are Taking An Enormous Risk With Trump, Powerful New Biden Videos/Ad, Suozzi Wed 8pm EST

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Happy Monday all, got a few things today:

Trump Is A Far Weaker Candidate Than in 2016 and 2020 - As I wake this morning I keep returning to this:

• In 2022 we were told a red wave was coming - it didn’t.

• In 2023 we were told a recession was coming - it didn’t

• In 2024 we are being told Trump is a strong candidate - he won’t be

In my view Trump is far more degraded, extreme and dangerous than he was in 2020. His performance on the stump is far more erratic, wild, even comically so. He is making huge unforced political errors (coming out against the ACA, WTF?). And there are at least six things voters will come to learn about him that they didn’t know in 2020 that will push him further and further away from an electorate that has already rejected him and his politics in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023:

• He is a rapist

• He committed massive, decades long financial fraud

• He led an insurrection against the US, tried to end American democracy

• He stole America's secrets, lied to the FBI, shared them w/others and betrayed the country

• He and his family have taken billions from foreign governments

• He ended Roe

Republicans are taking an extraordinary and unprecedented risk in nominating Trump. He’s the most unfit man to ever run for President, one twice Impeached, 91 times indicted, whose has done all these things above, and who may be barred from running for leading an insurrection against the United States. No one who has run for President has had anything like this baggage before. At a strategy level backing him is an extraordinary and unprecedented risk.

Trump world is is so worried about the damage the news of these new misdeeds will have that NBC’s Vaughn Hilliard was banned from covering the Trump campaign for this exchange with Trump surrogate, Rep. Stefanik, about Trump’s raping of E. Jean Carroll:

Additionally, Trump’s wild and erratic performance on the stump, and his clear cognitive decline, has started getting a lot more attention as the media starts covering the race more closely. Here’s how the Biden campaign handled it this weekend:

Here’s what the Koch political network, (AFP Action), the most powerful organization on the right, said this weekend about Trump being a huge, dangerous risk:

The warning signs are there for all Republicans to see. Poll after poll finds Trump will be severely damaged if convicted of a crime - something that has arguably already happened, and is likely to happen on felony level crimes this year. Turnout in Iowa last week was shockingly low, and only 7% of all registered Republicans bothered to vote for Trump (93% didn’t!!!!). Consistent with the internal Koch polling, polls released in MI, NH and PA in recent days have Biden beating Trump and running ahead of his 2020 results. Leading Republicans have now been indicted or plead guilty for attempting to over the 2020 election in AZ, GA, MI, NV, WI; Rudy has been fined $168m; it is likely the RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel will also get indicted this year. The chance of a truly significant splintering of the GOP and abandonment of Trump by non-MAGA Rs is already there in the data. The Haley vote in IA was 20% of all GOP voters:

The reality is that the GOP, particularly post-Dobbs, has just become too ugly, unattractive and dangerous even for many Republicans voters. Think of MAGA’s agenda in 2024 - more dead kids in schools, a faster warming planet, huge tax cuts for the wealthy and across the board cuts to vital programs and investments for everyone else, the stripping of health care from tens of millions, further appeasement of Putin and global autocrats who wish ill for the United States, a deepening war on women/freedom/rights and the ending of American democracy. Trumpy candidates bled Republican support in 2022 in critical elections across the US, and Trump is on track to do so again, bigly, in 2024.

The unbearable ugliness of Trump is a central reason I am so optimistic about 2024. Yes, we have a lot of work to do. But Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong and winning elections all across the country. And they have Trump, the most unfit man to ever run for President in all our history.

The Biden Campaign’s New Ad on Trump and Roe - Game on, folks! (link)

And the campaign released this video this morning:

I will be sharing a lot of video this year here on Hopium for there is no way to understand what is happening in the election without seeing the media produced by the campaigns, and the words and performance of the candidates themselves. Team Biden is ramping up, and their early media has been impressive, effective, and hard hitting - as it needs to be.

New “With Democrats, Things Get Better Now” Available - Grateful for the very positive feedback this weekend to the updated release of my big presentation, With Democrats Things Get Better. You can find a recording of the presentation and learn more here. I also appreciate those who have said they have shared it with others - yes, please do! Help spread the good news about our remarkable party and our wonderful President to others. This is one of the ways we get to 55 and win big in 2024 - by sharing good news about Joe Biden and the Democrats through out networks, and being loud and proud. Loud and proud people!

Tom Suozzi Joins Us Wed Night at 8pm - Register and Please Support Him Today! - Fresh off a poll showing him up 45%-42%, Tom Suozzi joins us live Wed night at 8pm EST. We will hear from Tom for 20 minutes and then I will provide an update on the overall political landscape the night after the NH primary. Register here, and please support Tom however you can below:

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Keep working hard all. 2023 was a very good year for us. Let’s make 2024 an even better one! - Simon