Totally understand where you're coming from. I think our lack of a megaphone is a big deal, and since 2012 RW media of all kinds, spawning so many different platforms and cells who were really pissed that Obama won, flooded the zone. Throw in the woke nonsense response to Trump's win in 2016, that anti-woke backlash gave even more ammo and fertile ground for RW to infiltrate. But I also think we haven't had an appealing message since 2012.. until late July of 2024.
Having said that, I'd humbly ask all of us to consider the following: VP Harris outperformed Pres Biden's approval rating by 8 points. That is truly stunning, in a highly anti-incumbent backdrop. Trump outperformed his by about 3.5, and he was the anti-incumbent!
I think VP Harris had the makings of a good message and a great campaign. She only had 3.5 months to make her case. I'd like to think the GOTV efforts were very strong, and contributed to that 8 point overperformance.
It's truly discouraging to lose the popular vote to such an odious and idiotic character. But, this isn't 1996 anymore. The electorate has changed a lot. I think Dems are a bit behind the curve on recognizing that, although VP Harris's campaign seemed to recognize it and catch up.
NONE of the orange baby man's clown show would be happening if he was disqualified day one after forensic psychiatrist Dr Bandy X Lee's report of the five dangerous mental pathologies of Donald Trump.
Here is a radical strategy for winning back the House of Representatives, sooner rather than later. One way to get rid of bothersome upper-management employees that might be difficult to fire, is to praise them to the right ears – so they’re headhunted by a competitor. The result is a win-win.
Not infrequently, congressional representatives retire to seek the greater financial rewards that are available in private industry. In fact, Axios had an article about this just the other day:
. "Private-sector paydays threaten Mike Johnson's House majority"
So here is my idea: that democracy-favoring business owners be "inspired" to make lucrative job offers to Republican House members elected from vulnerable districts, tempting them to retire early from Congress. This, of course, will trigger Special Elections, in which Democrats in recent years have been overperforming.
Hakeem Jeffries may well find himself Speaker of the House sooner than expected.
"Salary is a major sore spot for House lawmakers. They last got a pay bump to $174,000 in 2009… The real threat to Johnson's majority is people leaving for private-sector jobs.
"At least five House lawmakers quit Congress early in the last two years to pursue private-sector paychecks. Another four resigned early for other reasons, two died in office and one was expelled.
"If similar patterns play out over the next two years, Johnson's majority is permanently at risk."
("Johnson will start Jan. 3 with (at most!) a 221-213 vote majority, before falling as low as 218-216 until special elections can replace Trump Cabinet appointees. Even at full strength, the House GOP majority will be at most 221-214. That's a margin nightmares are made of.")
I love this thought train. Gotta look for pink, toss up or light red districts. I believe the most a special election moved a district was 7%. I know this unrealistic but are there three RINO reps that would switch affiliation? If they switch now - Dems will support them in 2026?
Hey, if they switch now they will get cushy committee assignments? All we need is 3 or 4. Speakership changes. House control shifts. We will never get a dear leader because we are not a herd but all small ideas lead to one victory. Victory for we the people and democracy.
PS. Democrats need a multi-pronged strategy. Job offers from non-MAGA business owners are just one more tactic added to the mix. My proposal doesn’t need to work on a large scale…
There are more than 200 Republicans in the house. If even two or three of them leave, for any reason whatsoever (not just those that I describe above), that can be catastrophic for Mike Johnson’s control. In other words, we’re talking about a resignation rate of 1–1.5%. That low rate is happening anyways!
I’m just suggesting we add one more factor to the mix.
Thanks for Axios article.It referenced two special elections for Gaetz’ & Waltz’ seats in Fl. Primaries for those will be January 28 with the general on April 1. Unfortunately these are very red districts that Gaetz and Waltz won by huge margins.Trump’s endorsee for Walz’ seat is a local legislator who just won(and resigned) a FL Senate seat he won after being term-limited out of Fl House. Fine is exactly the “brand” Trump embraces.He’s also a multi-millionaire. On the + side, as you noted, there’s still some time before the elections…
Even short-term chaos in the House Republican caucus is a plus. Their chaos makes them less likely to be marching lock-step to the Trumpian drum.
Yet another possibility in very-Red districts is to recruit stealth candidates that appear to be MAGA but, who after election, shows their true and much-more-BLUE colors!
they are doing that to Dems all over the country. The creep who owns Nike ran a former Dem "Moderate" who was a third candidate to subtract voters from Dem Governor. It almost worked. It was so transparent. He funded both the 3rd and the Republican.
Nasty begets nasty and then sit back and wait for the howling and accusations from them. I can't wait to say "We learned this from you.....".
I wish you well. Revolutions are not led by old people. As our memories fade and our health declines, we have to accept the reality of the moment. I expect the Republicans to do themselves in. There is no honor among thieves.
Another point of view: I'm old, getting older all the time, and I'm not going out without a fight. With whatever braincells I have left! I just do think we all need to do what we can, just not give up, not surrender, not let them scare us into submission.
If you are looking for a sample letter (edit and make it your own):
Dear Mr. President,
I am writing to urge you to take immediate action regarding the vetting of potential nominees for senior government positions. As President-Elect Trump has begun publicly naming his intended nominees for high-level positions, I respectfully request that you initiate FBI background investigations now, given the critical importance of ensuring such individuals are thoroughly vetted for our national security.
The existing Memorandum of Understanding between the Department of Justice and your office provides clear authority for you, as the current President, to request background investigations of nominees. Additionally, the Presidential Transition Act contemplates investigations of individuals identified for high-level positions, which would include those President-elect Trump has publicly named.
While some of President-elect Trump's potential nominees may be reluctant to participate in this process, the MOU specifically allows for name checks and background investigations without consent in extraordinary circumstances. Given the unprecedented nature of the current situation and the paramount importance of protecting our nation's security interests, these circumstances clearly qualify as extraordinary.
Taking this proactive step would help ensure continuity of government and protect our national security infrastructure. It would also demonstrate your commitment to maintaining the integrity of our democratic institutions and safeguarding the proper vetting processes that have long served to protect our government's most sensitive positions.
Your leadership on this matter is crucial. I urge you to direct the FBI to begin these essential background investigations immediately.
I already wrote President Biden yesterday about this very issue; I couldn't write this much since space was limited (used the space at whitehouse.gov). But this is a great letter. Could we use this when calling the White House?
Hi, I'm [name] calling from [city, state]. I'm deeply concerned about national security and am urging President Biden to immediately initiate FBI background investigations into Trump's announced nominees for senior positions.
The President has clear authority to do this under both the DOJ Memorandum of Understanding and the Presidential Transition Act. Even if nominees refuse to cooperate, the MOU allows for background checks without consent in extraordinary circumstances - which this situation certainly is.
This isn't partisan - it's about national security and protecting our institutions. President Biden needs to direct the FBI to begin these investigations now, before it's too late.
We lost not to the Republicans as much as to Russian psy ops. They learned it from us. We used it successfully many times since WW II. We failed to fully prosecute the 2016 election interference, and although we had advance notice did little to stop it.
Tempus fugit, but Biden can step up and be a hero. Given the threats by an inchoate unitary executive, who beleieves that his elction is redemption for being victimized and threatens recrimination, he should grant tens of thosuands of pardons to folks like us.
Are crimes of election interference acts of war? We should be discussing war powers. What about Biden as unitary executive for a month
Last night WaPo posted an article about a projected blue state loss of 14 seats after the 2030 census. Those states move to red states like Texas. All the Dem comments -- which were ferocious -- stated facts we know well. More per capita gun deaths in red states, blue states subsidize red states, etc. The problem is, NONE of the Dem comments I read were focused on the 'Injustice' of the situation -- the very real loss of projected 14 seats in blue states in about 6 or so years. It seems to me that this reality should impact strategy sessions going forward for Democrats.
Also, I note the article in NYT today front page digital that trans activists are saying that they've gone too far ( /2024/11/26/us/politics/transgender-activists-rights.html ) w/their in your face "you're a bigot" and "you, too, are a bigot" and "you're all a bunch of bigots" has not worked. It's actually backfired.
My point is that Dems have serious issues challenging us, and railing about Trump v railing about our own reality accomplishes nothing. I'm not yet seeing Ds willing to examine our own house and external realities of the American landscape. We are consumed w/the unfairness of it all. I'm there, too, but as a business person, I know to get out of the weeds and face the music.
I'd humbly recommend Dan Pfieffer's substack if you're not already following it. He has provided very clear-eyed sobering information (and will continue to do so), about looking in the mirror and learning. Jon Favreau has also been tweeting some sobering data the past few days. The latest chart today shows a giant shift toward R's from 2012, across a lot of groups we thought was our coalition.
BTW-- I think we need to do both. Rail on Trump as well as work on our own problems :-)
Carville was saying this too, losing 6.5 points from 2020 is a sea change, close election or not. BUt why? In 2012 there was a ton or resentment against Obama; and there likely would have been no trump without Obama. Just saying there are movements without diagnosing why doesn't do much. Recently it is social media, but that was less true a decade ago. We are up against billions; Kamala had a billion, but as Thom Hartmann warned, trump had billions being spent on his behalf by oligarchs. They held their fire till Oct and then let loose, and that is when things started to collapse, and Tim Walz all but disappeared from the tv.
A strategy should be devised well in advance of the 2030 census by Dems (like this year) to make sure folks turn in their census forms. This would be a good project for the Hopium community.
Tracy, you make me think of something crazy. I followed the 2023 elections in Poland very closely. Yes, abortion was on the ballot. BUT, what really got my attention was an ambitious project where voters working remotely moved across Poland into what we would call red states. It was an organized effort; everyone knew the different rules 'state' by 'state' in Poland. How long they needed to live there before registering to vote, etc. Some people who were unemployed took labor jobs in order to pull off this temporary move totally attached to the election.
One of my biggest questions for you, Simon, is where is Dem leadership? At this exceedingly difficult and dangerous moment, where is our inspirational, forceful leader (or leaders)? Biden has almost disappeared and - despite his great successes - never spoke out in public regularly, or much at all. Kamala showed promise in her campaign (and earned some rest) but where is she now? Who else? We don't have anyone on a daily basis competing for headlines, social media presence, do we? No one even remotely a presence like trump. You have connection with the Dem party leadership - what discussions are going on around this, or are there any? What can the Hopium community do?
But also seconding our need for strong, vocal Dem leaders going forward. Harris (to many, incl me) was/is inspirational herself and must not disappear! …in a very short time she won 48% of the vote…
Agree 1000% - these are not normal times. The party needs to adjust now. The only official communications i am getting from the Democratic Party are fundraising emails from the now defunct Harris Walz campaign.
So thrilled about Derek. Although I do not live in his district, I kept donating several times during the ballot curing. This is such good news! Let's keep it going with Adam Gray! We need some positive news, I can't handle the rest of the news for today. Small victories build stronger ones for our future.Thank you Simon!!
This commentary from The Progressive seems relevant:
Donald Trump continues to announce controversial appointments for cabinet posts and other jobs in his administration. While many news outlets have commented on the key qualification for these choices (loyalty to Trump) and others have noted that fact that many have a common past experience (being hosts on Fox television programs), fewer have noted the other unifying item—lack of any experience in managing anything at all.
In Wisconsin, during the administration of Scott Walker, the renowned union-busting governor from 2011-2019, was particularly notable for his destruction of state agencies by pushing out anyone with any knowledge of how to run them. Numerous former state employees in various agencies have related to me stories of empty offices and the loss of institutional knowledge during the Walker years. In early in 2011, Walker replaced the longtime Department of Commerce with a new entity—the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC). The announced goal of the new department was to create opportunities for business and “job creation” in a state that Walker had proclaimed was “Open for Business.” The result was anything but stellar. As Matthew DeFour reported in 2015, “The agency assumed fewer than half of the economic development programs Commerce operated, hired a mix of longtime civil servants plus new managers with experience in the private sector, and reported to a board made up of lawmakers and volunteers from the business community and headed by Walker.”
Trump, it appears, is taking a page from the Walker playbook, choosing appointees with no knowledge or experience in the agencies they will manage, in order to destroy things and blow stuff up in Washington. As former Georgia Democratic Congressmember Carolyn Bourdeaux writes in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, “No one is going to want the destruction that the former president promises to bring. Just look at his record.” During his first term, the former President engaged in a constant shell game of changing agency heads and advisers, often removing people just as they were beginning to learn how the departments they were in charge of actually operated. The loss of institutional knowledge, and the continual appointment of partisan leaders in critical agencies and departments led to, among other things, hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths of people before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. As Bill Lueders meticulously documented in The Progressive, Trump continually botched the government’s handling of the pandemic through funding cuts, mismanagement, and out-right disinformation. This time around, even without a global pandemic, we can expect similar attacks on science, knowledge, and expertise.
So many of us worked through this campaign. I think I heard Simon say 6 million volunteers. Not sure if that’s just Harris campaign or all the grass roots efforts across the country. I think I engaged in at least 7 different orgs.
Now if we could harness all those people under a leader with a common mission, message, and an execution plan we could “flood the congress” zone with our pressure campaign and really fight back.
For years, Trump has been promising vengeance on all he imagines have done him wrong – in other words, the people who’ve tried to hold Trump accountable for his wrongdoings. At rallies, Trump has promised his cult followers: "I am your retribution!"
President Biden should compile a list of those Trump has threatened. That includes Jack Smith, Nancy Pelosi, former President Obama, Liz Cheney and Mike Pence, other political figures, DOJ employees, former members of the military, various journalists and editors, etc etc etc.
Biden should offer them broad pardons, very much along the lines of the pardon President Gerald Ford granted to Nixon, who, as we recall, had not been charged. These pardons need to be formulated so as to effectively prevent Trump from ordering "his" Department of Justice to go after them.
President Biden could announce the pardons – which I expect would have to number a hundred or more – on January 19, 2025 (or maybe at 11am on 20 January so as to steal Trump’s headlines), holding a speech to make it clear that he is using his Presidential Powers to protect innocent people from potential abuse.
PS. On his way out the door, and for his own peace of mind, Biden should also consider pardoning his wayward son, Hunter.
Usually, yes – but this is an exception. (Remember that pardons are also given when there has been a miscarriage of justice, i.e. someone innocent has been imprisoned.) Which is why President Biden should hold a brief speech underscoring that "these pardons will protect the innocent from Trump’s unjust retribution".
I am not sure about that - I guess there is the preemptive pardon of Nixon but my understanding is that included an acceptance of guilt. This part of pardons is rooted in the common law and has been part of jurisprudence since the start. But then again the laws and rule of law seem much more malleable these days.
Preemptive pardons for offenses against the United States have been allowable by the Supreme Court since 1866. There is no acceptance of guilt, unless/until a crime has been charged.
Yeah, neither of those articles are as clear on the subject of accepting guilt as your post implies. The Ford pardon of Nixon mentions crimes committed against the United States. Again, what crimes committed against the United States have these people committed? It’s a nice idea but I’m not sure that the Obamas or Clintons or Jack Smith would be all that receptive to having something on record that they committed crimes against the United States when they clearly have not.
Hi Nathaniel. I had several other citations. A preemptive pardon is an imputation / accusation of guilt, not a charge. "For preemptive pardons, which 'carr[y] an imputation of guilt,' the pardon conditions may affect only rights that would be forfeited upon conviction for the crime pardoned." https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/the-presidents-conditional-pardon-power/
So you think all these people are lining up to have an imputation of guilt for unspecified crimes? It’s a well intentioned idea but I’m not convinced it would be appealing to those it was offered to.
Only time will tell what is in the mind of President Biden on whether to grant preemptive immunity and under what conditions, or in the minds of those who would choose or not choose to accept it, and in the minds of the attorneys who would present and challenge it all, or in the judges who would resolve any disputes.
Totally agree! I was just talking about this today. Biden needs to issue blanket pardons to a massive number of people. These patriots need protection from the incoming admin. We have to stop pretending that we’re dealing with a normal political transition.
Thanks so much for this article. It's great info - harrowing, but necessary reading. Shining a light on reality is better than cowering in darkness and fear. Knowledge is power, and I agree it's good to familiarize ourselves with what could be coming.
Totally understand where you're coming from. I think our lack of a megaphone is a big deal, and since 2012 RW media of all kinds, spawning so many different platforms and cells who were really pissed that Obama won, flooded the zone. Throw in the woke nonsense response to Trump's win in 2016, that anti-woke backlash gave even more ammo and fertile ground for RW to infiltrate. But I also think we haven't had an appealing message since 2012.. until late July of 2024.
Having said that, I'd humbly ask all of us to consider the following: VP Harris outperformed Pres Biden's approval rating by 8 points. That is truly stunning, in a highly anti-incumbent backdrop. Trump outperformed his by about 3.5, and he was the anti-incumbent!
I think VP Harris had the makings of a good message and a great campaign. She only had 3.5 months to make her case. I'd like to think the GOTV efforts were very strong, and contributed to that 8 point overperformance.
It's truly discouraging to lose the popular vote to such an odious and idiotic character. But, this isn't 1996 anymore. The electorate has changed a lot. I think Dems are a bit behind the curve on recognizing that, although VP Harris's campaign seemed to recognize it and catch up.
Just MHO.
Thanks for your hard work. Adam Gray has pulled ahead by 105 votes. https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/13
NONE of the orange baby man's clown show would be happening if he was disqualified day one after forensic psychiatrist Dr Bandy X Lee's report of the five dangerous mental pathologies of Donald Trump.
WINNING THE HOUSE – SOONER RATHER THAN LATER
Here is a radical strategy for winning back the House of Representatives, sooner rather than later. One way to get rid of bothersome upper-management employees that might be difficult to fire, is to praise them to the right ears – so they’re headhunted by a competitor. The result is a win-win.
Not infrequently, congressional representatives retire to seek the greater financial rewards that are available in private industry. In fact, Axios had an article about this just the other day:
. "Private-sector paydays threaten Mike Johnson's House majority"
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/26/mike-johnson-congress-cameo-jobs-books
So here is my idea: that democracy-favoring business owners be "inspired" to make lucrative job offers to Republican House members elected from vulnerable districts, tempting them to retire early from Congress. This, of course, will trigger Special Elections, in which Democrats in recent years have been overperforming.
Hakeem Jeffries may well find himself Speaker of the House sooner than expected.
From Axios’ article:
"Salary is a major sore spot for House lawmakers. They last got a pay bump to $174,000 in 2009… The real threat to Johnson's majority is people leaving for private-sector jobs.
"At least five House lawmakers quit Congress early in the last two years to pursue private-sector paychecks. Another four resigned early for other reasons, two died in office and one was expelled.
"If similar patterns play out over the next two years, Johnson's majority is permanently at risk."
("Johnson will start Jan. 3 with (at most!) a 221-213 vote majority, before falling as low as 218-216 until special elections can replace Trump Cabinet appointees. Even at full strength, the House GOP majority will be at most 221-214. That's a margin nightmares are made of.")
Seriously I don’t think they deserve the last raise they received. What exactly has come out of the house in the past 2 years.
Well yeah, in an ideal world, but it's a small price to pay to get rid of them, no?
I love this thought train. Gotta look for pink, toss up or light red districts. I believe the most a special election moved a district was 7%. I know this unrealistic but are there three RINO reps that would switch affiliation? If they switch now - Dems will support them in 2026?
Hey, if they switch now they will get cushy committee assignments? All we need is 3 or 4. Speakership changes. House control shifts. We will never get a dear leader because we are not a herd but all small ideas lead to one victory. Victory for we the people and democracy.
PS. Democrats need a multi-pronged strategy. Job offers from non-MAGA business owners are just one more tactic added to the mix. My proposal doesn’t need to work on a large scale…
There are more than 200 Republicans in the house. If even two or three of them leave, for any reason whatsoever (not just those that I describe above), that can be catastrophic for Mike Johnson’s control. In other words, we’re talking about a resignation rate of 1–1.5%. That low rate is happening anyways!
I’m just suggesting we add one more factor to the mix.
GREAT idea. Read my post above. Two double espresso just kicked in. It is morning in Europe.
Thanks for Axios article.It referenced two special elections for Gaetz’ & Waltz’ seats in Fl. Primaries for those will be January 28 with the general on April 1. Unfortunately these are very red districts that Gaetz and Waltz won by huge margins.Trump’s endorsee for Walz’ seat is a local legislator who just won(and resigned) a FL Senate seat he won after being term-limited out of Fl House. Fine is exactly the “brand” Trump embraces.He’s also a multi-millionaire. On the + side, as you noted, there’s still some time before the elections…
https://www.floridabulldog.org/2024/05/after-state-judge-abdicates-ethics-commission-to-give-maga-warrior-rare-do-over-hearing/
Even short-term chaos in the House Republican caucus is a plus. Their chaos makes them less likely to be marching lock-step to the Trumpian drum.
Yet another possibility in very-Red districts is to recruit stealth candidates that appear to be MAGA but, who after election, shows their true and much-more-BLUE colors!
they are doing that to Dems all over the country. The creep who owns Nike ran a former Dem "Moderate" who was a third candidate to subtract voters from Dem Governor. It almost worked. It was so transparent. He funded both the 3rd and the Republican.
Nasty begets nasty and then sit back and wait for the howling and accusations from them. I can't wait to say "We learned this from you.....".
The money is what I hate. The waste!
Does anyone know the result of Peltola race in Alaska?
Yes, Begich did defeat Mary Peltola. The RCV count made it crystal clear.
Oh I love ideas like this!!
I wish you well. Revolutions are not led by old people. As our memories fade and our health declines, we have to accept the reality of the moment. I expect the Republicans to do themselves in. There is no honor among thieves.
Revolutions may be for the young, but resistance is for everyone.
Another point of view: I'm old, getting older all the time, and I'm not going out without a fight. With whatever braincells I have left! I just do think we all need to do what we can, just not give up, not surrender, not let them scare us into submission.
Exactly. People came to our local Democratic club in their 80s, some with walkers and O2 tanks, and they were among the most effective of us.
Benjamin Franklin wasn’t a young man.
Thankful for Hopium!
If you are looking for a sample letter (edit and make it your own):
Dear Mr. President,
I am writing to urge you to take immediate action regarding the vetting of potential nominees for senior government positions. As President-Elect Trump has begun publicly naming his intended nominees for high-level positions, I respectfully request that you initiate FBI background investigations now, given the critical importance of ensuring such individuals are thoroughly vetted for our national security.
The existing Memorandum of Understanding between the Department of Justice and your office provides clear authority for you, as the current President, to request background investigations of nominees. Additionally, the Presidential Transition Act contemplates investigations of individuals identified for high-level positions, which would include those President-elect Trump has publicly named.
While some of President-elect Trump's potential nominees may be reluctant to participate in this process, the MOU specifically allows for name checks and background investigations without consent in extraordinary circumstances. Given the unprecedented nature of the current situation and the paramount importance of protecting our nation's security interests, these circumstances clearly qualify as extraordinary.
Taking this proactive step would help ensure continuity of government and protect our national security infrastructure. It would also demonstrate your commitment to maintaining the integrity of our democratic institutions and safeguarding the proper vetting processes that have long served to protect our government's most sensitive positions.
Your leadership on this matter is crucial. I urge you to direct the FBI to begin these essential background investigations immediately.
Respectfully yours,
[Your name]
I already wrote President Biden yesterday about this very issue; I couldn't write this much since space was limited (used the space at whitehouse.gov). But this is a great letter. Could we use this when calling the White House?
I think it could work for that. Try this?
Hi, I'm [name] calling from [city, state]. I'm deeply concerned about national security and am urging President Biden to immediately initiate FBI background investigations into Trump's announced nominees for senior positions.
The President has clear authority to do this under both the DOJ Memorandum of Understanding and the Presidential Transition Act. Even if nominees refuse to cooperate, the MOU allows for background checks without consent in extraordinary circumstances - which this situation certainly is.
This isn't partisan - it's about national security and protecting our institutions. President Biden needs to direct the FBI to begin these investigations now, before it's too late.
Thank you for taking my message. Have a good day.
We lost not to the Republicans as much as to Russian psy ops. They learned it from us. We used it successfully many times since WW II. We failed to fully prosecute the 2016 election interference, and although we had advance notice did little to stop it.
Tempus fugit, but Biden can step up and be a hero. Given the threats by an inchoate unitary executive, who beleieves that his elction is redemption for being victimized and threatens recrimination, he should grant tens of thosuands of pardons to folks like us.
Are crimes of election interference acts of war? We should be discussing war powers. What about Biden as unitary executive for a month
Thanks for this great letter and the phone call script. I will use both.
Just sent it.
Last night WaPo posted an article about a projected blue state loss of 14 seats after the 2030 census. Those states move to red states like Texas. All the Dem comments -- which were ferocious -- stated facts we know well. More per capita gun deaths in red states, blue states subsidize red states, etc. The problem is, NONE of the Dem comments I read were focused on the 'Injustice' of the situation -- the very real loss of projected 14 seats in blue states in about 6 or so years. It seems to me that this reality should impact strategy sessions going forward for Democrats.
Also, I note the article in NYT today front page digital that trans activists are saying that they've gone too far ( /2024/11/26/us/politics/transgender-activists-rights.html ) w/their in your face "you're a bigot" and "you, too, are a bigot" and "you're all a bunch of bigots" has not worked. It's actually backfired.
My point is that Dems have serious issues challenging us, and railing about Trump v railing about our own reality accomplishes nothing. I'm not yet seeing Ds willing to examine our own house and external realities of the American landscape. We are consumed w/the unfairness of it all. I'm there, too, but as a business person, I know to get out of the weeds and face the music.
I'd humbly recommend Dan Pfieffer's substack if you're not already following it. He has provided very clear-eyed sobering information (and will continue to do so), about looking in the mirror and learning. Jon Favreau has also been tweeting some sobering data the past few days. The latest chart today shows a giant shift toward R's from 2012, across a lot of groups we thought was our coalition.
BTW-- I think we need to do both. Rail on Trump as well as work on our own problems :-)
Carville was saying this too, losing 6.5 points from 2020 is a sea change, close election or not. BUt why? In 2012 there was a ton or resentment against Obama; and there likely would have been no trump without Obama. Just saying there are movements without diagnosing why doesn't do much. Recently it is social media, but that was less true a decade ago. We are up against billions; Kamala had a billion, but as Thom Hartmann warned, trump had billions being spent on his behalf by oligarchs. They held their fire till Oct and then let loose, and that is when things started to collapse, and Tim Walz all but disappeared from the tv.
The diagnosis will follow, but getting the data out is the first step. It's a process, and they're not saving everything for one giant white paper.
A strategy should be devised well in advance of the 2030 census by Dems (like this year) to make sure folks turn in their census forms. This would be a good project for the Hopium community.
Tracy, you make me think of something crazy. I followed the 2023 elections in Poland very closely. Yes, abortion was on the ballot. BUT, what really got my attention was an ambitious project where voters working remotely moved across Poland into what we would call red states. It was an organized effort; everyone knew the different rules 'state' by 'state' in Poland. How long they needed to live there before registering to vote, etc. Some people who were unemployed took labor jobs in order to pull off this temporary move totally attached to the election.
One of my biggest questions for you, Simon, is where is Dem leadership? At this exceedingly difficult and dangerous moment, where is our inspirational, forceful leader (or leaders)? Biden has almost disappeared and - despite his great successes - never spoke out in public regularly, or much at all. Kamala showed promise in her campaign (and earned some rest) but where is she now? Who else? We don't have anyone on a daily basis competing for headlines, social media presence, do we? No one even remotely a presence like trump. You have connection with the Dem party leadership - what discussions are going on around this, or are there any? What can the Hopium community do?
Harris and Walz will be on an organizing zoom at 3pm today. https://events.democrats.org/event/745010/
Thank you for sharing link. Had not seen this.
But also seconding our need for strong, vocal Dem leaders going forward. Harris (to many, incl me) was/is inspirational herself and must not disappear! …in a very short time she won 48% of the vote…
I attended and was moved by MVP’s remarks.
Agree 1000% - these are not normal times. The party needs to adjust now. The only official communications i am getting from the Democratic Party are fundraising emails from the now defunct Harris Walz campaign.
Ask Biden to formalize the ERA
Could you clarify? Is this possible?
So thrilled about Derek. Although I do not live in his district, I kept donating several times during the ballot curing. This is such good news! Let's keep it going with Adam Gray! We need some positive news, I can't handle the rest of the news for today. Small victories build stronger ones for our future.Thank you Simon!!
We appreciate your continuing encouragement, Simon. Have a warm restoratve Thanksgiving.
This commentary from The Progressive seems relevant:
Donald Trump continues to announce controversial appointments for cabinet posts and other jobs in his administration. While many news outlets have commented on the key qualification for these choices (loyalty to Trump) and others have noted that fact that many have a common past experience (being hosts on Fox television programs), fewer have noted the other unifying item—lack of any experience in managing anything at all.
In Wisconsin, during the administration of Scott Walker, the renowned union-busting governor from 2011-2019, was particularly notable for his destruction of state agencies by pushing out anyone with any knowledge of how to run them. Numerous former state employees in various agencies have related to me stories of empty offices and the loss of institutional knowledge during the Walker years. In early in 2011, Walker replaced the longtime Department of Commerce with a new entity—the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC). The announced goal of the new department was to create opportunities for business and “job creation” in a state that Walker had proclaimed was “Open for Business.” The result was anything but stellar. As Matthew DeFour reported in 2015, “The agency assumed fewer than half of the economic development programs Commerce operated, hired a mix of longtime civil servants plus new managers with experience in the private sector, and reported to a board made up of lawmakers and volunteers from the business community and headed by Walker.”
Trump, it appears, is taking a page from the Walker playbook, choosing appointees with no knowledge or experience in the agencies they will manage, in order to destroy things and blow stuff up in Washington. As former Georgia Democratic Congressmember Carolyn Bourdeaux writes in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, “No one is going to want the destruction that the former president promises to bring. Just look at his record.” During his first term, the former President engaged in a constant shell game of changing agency heads and advisers, often removing people just as they were beginning to learn how the departments they were in charge of actually operated. The loss of institutional knowledge, and the continual appointment of partisan leaders in critical agencies and departments led to, among other things, hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths of people before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. As Bill Lueders meticulously documented in The Progressive, Trump continually botched the government’s handling of the pandemic through funding cuts, mismanagement, and out-right disinformation. This time around, even without a global pandemic, we can expect similar attacks on science, knowledge, and expertise.
Self reporting this week:
This past week I did the following to keep up the good fight:
*Emailed the local Dem chairs to try and make our party more visible in my city.
*Contacted my Congresswoman to ask her to stand up to bullying transgender folk with bathroom bans. (She did - so I called again to thank her.)
*Contacted my Senators to ask them to pass the PRESS Act before the end of the legislative session.
*Contacted my Mayor to ask him to stand up against letting ICE operate in a private detention center in my city.
*Reached out to non-profits that are offering services to asylum seekers and immigrants to see how I can help.
What's the PRESS Act?
The PRESS Act is a press freedom bill that helps journalists protect anonymous sources from government compulsion.
Great Roger. I’ve been doing similar things.
So many of us worked through this campaign. I think I heard Simon say 6 million volunteers. Not sure if that’s just Harris campaign or all the grass roots efforts across the country. I think I engaged in at least 7 different orgs.
Now if we could harness all those people under a leader with a common mission, message, and an execution plan we could “flood the congress” zone with our pressure campaign and really fight back.
PRE-EMPTIVE PARDONS to PROTECT THE INNOCENT
For years, Trump has been promising vengeance on all he imagines have done him wrong – in other words, the people who’ve tried to hold Trump accountable for his wrongdoings. At rallies, Trump has promised his cult followers: "I am your retribution!"
President Biden should compile a list of those Trump has threatened. That includes Jack Smith, Nancy Pelosi, former President Obama, Liz Cheney and Mike Pence, other political figures, DOJ employees, former members of the military, various journalists and editors, etc etc etc.
Biden should offer them broad pardons, very much along the lines of the pardon President Gerald Ford granted to Nixon, who, as we recall, had not been charged. These pardons need to be formulated so as to effectively prevent Trump from ordering "his" Department of Justice to go after them.
President Biden could announce the pardons – which I expect would have to number a hundred or more – on January 19, 2025 (or maybe at 11am on 20 January so as to steal Trump’s headlines), holding a speech to make it clear that he is using his Presidential Powers to protect innocent people from potential abuse.
PS. On his way out the door, and for his own peace of mind, Biden should also consider pardoning his wayward son, Hunter.
The only problem with that is that pardons require an acknowledgment of guilt. What would these folks be admitting guilt to?
Usually, yes – but this is an exception. (Remember that pardons are also given when there has been a miscarriage of justice, i.e. someone innocent has been imprisoned.) Which is why President Biden should hold a brief speech underscoring that "these pardons will protect the innocent from Trump’s unjust retribution".
I am not sure about that - I guess there is the preemptive pardon of Nixon but my understanding is that included an acceptance of guilt. This part of pardons is rooted in the common law and has been part of jurisprudence since the start. But then again the laws and rule of law seem much more malleable these days.
Preemptive pardons for offenses against the United States have been allowable by the Supreme Court since 1866. There is no acceptance of guilt, unless/until a crime has been charged.
https://arizonastatelawjournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Eckstein-Colby-Final.pdf
https://www.criminaldefenselawyer.com/resources/presidential-pardon-powers-and-limits.html
Yeah, neither of those articles are as clear on the subject of accepting guilt as your post implies. The Ford pardon of Nixon mentions crimes committed against the United States. Again, what crimes committed against the United States have these people committed? It’s a nice idea but I’m not sure that the Obamas or Clintons or Jack Smith would be all that receptive to having something on record that they committed crimes against the United States when they clearly have not.
Hi Nathaniel. I had several other citations. A preemptive pardon is an imputation / accusation of guilt, not a charge. "For preemptive pardons, which 'carr[y] an imputation of guilt,' the pardon conditions may affect only rights that would be forfeited upon conviction for the crime pardoned." https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/the-presidents-conditional-pardon-power/
This article states that it is not necessarily an admission of guilt to accept a pardon. https://www.whitehousehistory.org/the-history-of-the-pardon-power
If the crime is not specified in the pardon, then there can not be acceptance of guilt to an unspecified crime.
So you think all these people are lining up to have an imputation of guilt for unspecified crimes? It’s a well intentioned idea but I’m not convinced it would be appealing to those it was offered to.
Only time will tell what is in the mind of President Biden on whether to grant preemptive immunity and under what conditions, or in the minds of those who would choose or not choose to accept it, and in the minds of the attorneys who would present and challenge it all, or in the judges who would resolve any disputes.
Turkey’s don’t have to admit guilt! 🦃🤣
Totally agree! I was just talking about this today. Biden needs to issue blanket pardons to a massive number of people. These patriots need protection from the incoming admin. We have to stop pretending that we’re dealing with a normal political transition.
Yes to all AND YES TO PARDONING HUNTER!
Here is quite long paper on what economic populism really means. Examples from Hungary under Orban - the GOP "idol" and Bolzanaro. I would hope we can use it as jumping off point to drive messages about what is coming. https://carnegie-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/files/Kleinfeld_Populism-v3.pdf
Thanks so much for this article. It's great info - harrowing, but necessary reading. Shining a light on reality is better than cowering in darkness and fear. Knowledge is power, and I agree it's good to familiarize ourselves with what could be coming.