Simon - brilliant as always. But in the spirit of keeping our eye firmly on the ball, a few "devil's advocate" things to consider.
In 2018, the Dems killed it in the House but the GOP *did* have a remarkable net gain of +2 Senate seats (Dems flipped AZ & NV, but GOP defeated incumbents in IN, MO, ND, FL). We have to *REALLY* work hard in about 10 high-pri states and we cannot under any circumstances concede upcoming races in FL, TX and MO against three of the worst human beings ever to hold the title of Senator: Scott, Cruz and Hawley. Our narrow losses in 2022 in WI and NC deprived us of wiggle room. The money dump in OH also deprived us of another winnable victory. The partisan senate leanings are the worst in 100 years. Let’s change that!
In 2020, the GOP flipped back 13 Seats from Dem to GOP from the '18 wave. Then they flipped another dozen in 2022. This is about a net gain of +25. Not a red wave, but we have to still work hard here -- particularly since a GOP House in January 2025 will not, under any circumstance, certify a Biden election victory.
Again, we've done great work since 2017, but we have to run the tables in the House and Senate to really preserve our democracy. Nothing less than that is at stake.
I have been engaging people on social media, responding to their BS with facts. Your data is a great start, but I do like to go back to source data when I can so I don't get into a contest with people about sources. I know you are a good source, but some people will discount it, like some people won't accept CNN as a source. I know it is a losing battle, but I do like to respond to some of this negative propaganda with the truth and links to the underlying sources with links would help me.
Hi Simon. I sound like a broken record but Biden is hemorrhaging support by not publicly breaking with Bibi. More and people realize this, yet for some reason he refuses to do so -- despite the horrendous aggression and in spite of Israel's gov't treating him like a fool. I am imploring you -- as someone is an "influencer" to add your voice, even privately -- maybe you have done so. His complicity makes him look weak and unethical -- take it from someone who has really liked most everything he's done. Would appreciate a response! Thanks
Hi Fisher. Very late response! Anyway — sure overall support may be strong but look at the voting public and swing states. It has hurt his already low standing w young voters. And his campaign is very worried about Michigan/ Arab American voters
There is no evidence it means squat to younger voters. Simon himself has posted this several times. Frankly, Tom Suozzi just won with Muslim votes in NY. They were at his victory speech, and they cheered him even after a White woman protester with a Palestinian flag was escorted off the stage.The issue is being used as a wedge issue by the other side, that's all. My guess is we are ok in MI without the Arab vote. If we aren't then we are losing WI and PA as well and thus the election. I keep seeing that the deep political operative types like Joe Trippi and Rick Wilson are more confident than a lot of people. That tells you something.
I believe it's easy to get a distorted picture from social media, where pro-Hamas boutique lefties (who haven't likely voted for national Dems ever) and disruptive trolls are in abundance, out of proportion to either political influence or voting relevance.
[Of course, as always, that's just my take; I could be wrong.]
Hi Simon. I am still new to Substack and just saw that you had responded to me. Thank you
I am not a student of polls. Yet Biden and his advisors are acutely worried. There is Michigan.
Close to a majority of Democrats disapprove of his policies. Even Ben Cardin or was it Chris Coons said Biden should be tougher w Bibi.
And not everything shows up in polls or shows up right away — or clearly. Biden looking like a tool of Bibi, too weak to say in public what he says in private ( and allows to be leaked) is not a good thing.
Finally — and most importantly — if we want Biden re elected I think it is important that his most fervent supporters at least make it known in private to him when they think he is erring. And allowing Israel to act with barbarism, invading hospitals and leveling an entire country — i do not think it is my projection that this is taking a toll on the enthusiasm of the base.
Simon you gotta love the MAGA NY Post “tight race” narrative on NY-3 except when you drill down on the results; “......Suozzi voters currently express heightened enthusiasm, with a majority of those ‘very likely’ to vote on February 13 favoring Suozzi at 51% to 37%,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement...It’s noteworthy that the ‘very likely’ voter segment constitutes 84% of the sample...”
Thanks Dad! See ya tomorrow then.
Simon - brilliant as always. But in the spirit of keeping our eye firmly on the ball, a few "devil's advocate" things to consider.
In 2018, the Dems killed it in the House but the GOP *did* have a remarkable net gain of +2 Senate seats (Dems flipped AZ & NV, but GOP defeated incumbents in IN, MO, ND, FL). We have to *REALLY* work hard in about 10 high-pri states and we cannot under any circumstances concede upcoming races in FL, TX and MO against three of the worst human beings ever to hold the title of Senator: Scott, Cruz and Hawley. Our narrow losses in 2022 in WI and NC deprived us of wiggle room. The money dump in OH also deprived us of another winnable victory. The partisan senate leanings are the worst in 100 years. Let’s change that!
In 2020, the GOP flipped back 13 Seats from Dem to GOP from the '18 wave. Then they flipped another dozen in 2022. This is about a net gain of +25. Not a red wave, but we have to still work hard here -- particularly since a GOP House in January 2025 will not, under any circumstance, certify a Biden election victory.
Again, we've done great work since 2017, but we have to run the tables in the House and Senate to really preserve our democracy. Nothing less than that is at stake.
Great news.
I have been engaging people on social media, responding to their BS with facts. Your data is a great start, but I do like to go back to source data when I can so I don't get into a contest with people about sources. I know you are a good source, but some people will discount it, like some people won't accept CNN as a source. I know it is a losing battle, but I do like to respond to some of this negative propaganda with the truth and links to the underlying sources with links would help me.
Hi Simon. I sound like a broken record but Biden is hemorrhaging support by not publicly breaking with Bibi. More and people realize this, yet for some reason he refuses to do so -- despite the horrendous aggression and in spite of Israel's gov't treating him like a fool. I am imploring you -- as someone is an "influencer" to add your voice, even privately -- maybe you have done so. His complicity makes him look weak and unethical -- take it from someone who has really liked most everything he's done. Would appreciate a response! Thanks
Rich, can you provide evidence that Biden's Israel stance is hurting him with voters? His polling has been better in recent weeks than in October.
A Morning Consult poll has Americans supporting Israel, with only a 2.2 % decline.
Hi Fisher. Very late response! Anyway — sure overall support may be strong but look at the voting public and swing states. It has hurt his already low standing w young voters. And his campaign is very worried about Michigan/ Arab American voters
There is no evidence it means squat to younger voters. Simon himself has posted this several times. Frankly, Tom Suozzi just won with Muslim votes in NY. They were at his victory speech, and they cheered him even after a White woman protester with a Palestinian flag was escorted off the stage.The issue is being used as a wedge issue by the other side, that's all. My guess is we are ok in MI without the Arab vote. If we aren't then we are losing WI and PA as well and thus the election. I keep seeing that the deep political operative types like Joe Trippi and Rick Wilson are more confident than a lot of people. That tells you something.
I believe it's easy to get a distorted picture from social media, where pro-Hamas boutique lefties (who haven't likely voted for national Dems ever) and disruptive trolls are in abundance, out of proportion to either political influence or voting relevance.
[Of course, as always, that's just my take; I could be wrong.]
Hi Simon. I am still new to Substack and just saw that you had responded to me. Thank you
I am not a student of polls. Yet Biden and his advisors are acutely worried. There is Michigan.
Close to a majority of Democrats disapprove of his policies. Even Ben Cardin or was it Chris Coons said Biden should be tougher w Bibi.
And not everything shows up in polls or shows up right away — or clearly. Biden looking like a tool of Bibi, too weak to say in public what he says in private ( and allows to be leaked) is not a good thing.
Finally — and most importantly — if we want Biden re elected I think it is important that his most fervent supporters at least make it known in private to him when they think he is erring. And allowing Israel to act with barbarism, invading hospitals and leveling an entire country — i do not think it is my projection that this is taking a toll on the enthusiasm of the base.
And enthusiasm is not always reflected in polls.
Thank you Simon
Can someone provide the link to: Trump and MAGA's Historical Awfulness Matters? Thanks.
Simon you gotta love the MAGA NY Post “tight race” narrative on NY-3 except when you drill down on the results; “......Suozzi voters currently express heightened enthusiasm, with a majority of those ‘very likely’ to vote on February 13 favoring Suozzi at 51% to 37%,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement...It’s noteworthy that the ‘very likely’ voter segment constitutes 84% of the sample...”
Also just donated again 🤑