I’m hoping those words prophetically refer to her own political career, and the career of many other MAGA Republicans who refuse to stand up to the unconstitutional acts of the Trump Regime!
That line was better delivered by Ralph Fiennes in "The Menu." The great deliberators of our time apparently.
Ron Brownstein is a great resource to go to, so kudos to Simon for going to him on long term trends with the working class. More Democrats should go to him for his reporting; a lot of which is on CNN or in The Atlantic.
Related to that point, I have a rural post coming up early in the week featuring a lot of information that should be used to court rural votes. Stay tuned for that on the Political Pulse blog. Will ben important to share that information with people in the Democratic Party so they can make inroads with rural voters for 2026.
I, too, hope that Joni’s nonchalance about her constituents’ demise proves an anchor around her loathsome neck. Perhaps her ambivalence regarding human survival also helps to explain her support for Pete Hegseth, “hey, somebody is going to get us into catastrophic war—why not him?”
In a reply (written on her Senate letterhead, dated May 8), I was also surprised to be told, “Thank you for contacting me regarding deportations and El Salvador….Under an agreement between President Trump and El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, the countries are coordinating to return eligible deportees back to El Salvador.” Sure, Joni. Any day now.
There will be enough cruelty, lies, and depravity to fill a dozen anti-Joni ads. Check out Nathan Sage, who is running to replace her in ‘26:
I really think we need to run with "Republican death panels" - it certainly worked well for the GOP when they talked about "Obama Care" (see link below).
And in the case of the GOP's atrocious budget bill (stripping so many vulnerable people of healthcare and leading to the shutdown of many rural hospitals that depend on Medicaid $$) it will likely turn out to be true! Add to that the recklessness of RFK Jr. with regard to vaccines and it only gets worse!
Republicans gained seven seats in the Senate (including a special election held in January 2010) but failed to gain a majority in the chamber. In the House of Representatives, Republicans won a net gain of 63 seats, the largest shift in seats since the 1948 elections. In state elections, Republicans won a net gain of six gubernatorial seats and flipped control of twenty state legislative chambers, giving them a substantial advantage in the redistricting that occurred following the 2010 United States census. The election was widely characterized as a "Republican wave" election.
Im the last couple days I've been highlighting an idea by Anat Shenker-Osario's suggestion for MAGA MURDER BUDGET as the meme to pin on the reconilliation bill. Here is the Interview with Anand GIridharadas of The Ink Substack.
Start at 16:35 if you want to jump to the meat of it. I think this is an essiantial perspective about how to label this bill to help wake more people up to what we are facing. IMHO, Anat is very good at drilling into how messaging works and what's need in the moment.
I was hoping so as well. A friend from college is now a (R) representative to the Iowa House, and I asked him if he thought she might be vulnerable. His answer:
She’s very vulnerable but only if the stars align properly.
If a single, non-machine, conservative Republican takes her on in the primary, that could be the end of Phony Joni. The Republican base absolutely loathes her. There’s nothing to like. She’s a corrupt war pig. Very similar to the revolting Lindsey Graham.
But, if she wins the primary, she’s probably safe. She will almost certainly use the same weapons Lindsey Graham uses to win her primary. She’ll make sure that she has multiple credible Republicans challenging her. They will split the vote of the core Republicans, while big out-of-state money gins up turnout for enough votes to win the primary.
This week, my move to pace myself is leaning into humorous derision rather than fear, loathing and fury.
So elaborating on the thread from my comments yesterday, and with acknowledgement to Jimmy Kimmel's Thursday night monolog, i plan to go to 6/14 No Kings Day and do the TACO DANCE to YMCA complete with arm movements and rewritten lyrics.
Ive changed the opener to "Orange man.... you've been convicted of crimes, I said Orange man... you have ruined our times, Orange man, why you can't even dance, Orange man, and you wear diaper pants..."
(with more to come)
The event is themed 7 x 7000 i.e. 7000 protesters along 7 miles of El Camino Real in Sunnyvale CA in the heart of DogeBro country. I think it goes by 3 or 4 Tesla dealerships and my goal is to get as many dancers as possible... a 7 mile TACO conga line!
A humorous critique, if I may: While Ron Brownstein undeniably has beautiful nostrils, I would like to have seen more of him – for instance his eyes. Perhaps someone can suggest he reposition his webcam for his next interview/livestream?
😂 I listened while on a walk. I had to fidget with my phone. I saw his nostrils, mouth moving and chin. I also saw many comments quickly scrolling telling Simon and Ron. I put my AirPods back in and figured they had figured it out. I guess not! Great interview by the way.
This was my fault. The Substack Live platform only works on the app so we do it on our phones which makes it harder to frame and understand the shot. The tech is still really more beta than alpha at this point but every few weeks it gets closer to being what we need it to be.
All the same, it was a great interview! Thank you. :)
(As a bit of a luddite, I really despise that so many platforms are pushing their apps overly hard. Perhaps I’m in the minority, but I strongly prefer accessing web content through the browser on my laptop, never via my iPhone.)
Honestly I think that occasional problems like that make people seem more authentic and real. Watching people in their homes messing around with the tech and occasionally not getting things perfect might be more feature than bug.
Well, I was watching it on my MacBook, live, and lots of people were mentioning the problem in the chat during the interview. Anyways, it was a great interview!
Yes, I saw the video and chat although I did not see the problem. Android vs. i-stuff is inherently incompatible, using their own proprietary software. I always figure that's part of the glitch.
Not sure I understand. I though both of us were watching the video, live, through our PC or Mac browsers? If so, there shouldn’t be a difference.
I recognize that the Substack app is an entirely different animal. (I don’t do anything through an app on my phone, at least nothing that I can do through a browser.)
I admit that I am venting a bit this morning, but trying to do it constructively. The more data I see and the more I think about 2024, the more I realize how winnable it was for us, but we just made some unforced errors in the years prior and during the election that were... just ugh.
I am also venting because as I have discussed previously, my wife is an attorney for unaccompionied children in Dallas (she now works remotely). Some of her colleagues were in court yesterday and had to watch a 9-year old who was unrepresented try and describe their asylum case. A 9-year old. And there were other cases with unrepresented people who had no idea what they were doing and so the judge ruled they had two choices. Voluntary departure or a removal order. I mean, what the hell are we doing?
We are all working hard, I know that. But we need to work harder, faster and stronger. We all need to turn out on June 14th. We need to be overwhelming. I always knew that we would have to deal with awfulness and I know there is more to come. I am pushing in as many different directions as I can. And will keep doing so. I just needed to vent. Keep up all the good work everyone. Keep pushing.
Thank you for reporting on that. So important to keep the righteous anger and so disheartening to hear these stories but this is why we need to keep fighting.
Despite all the bad things the Republican Party has done and continues to do under Trump 2.0 they are still viewed more favorably by the American public than the Democratic Party. In fact the latest YouGov poll has the Democratic Party 21 points more negative than positive. Twenty one point under water. Why is that? And how do the Dems turn that around prior to the 2026 mid terms?
Here's my short take: while not good, our brand weakness is due to a portion of Dems being disapointed in us and not indies. Whether that will impact turnout in the coming elections we don't know. So far it hasn't and yes we've been overperforming in elections which is all that matters. So far while Dems may be disapointed in us when it comes to voting we are performing. In digging into the numbers indies rate us 16-55, and Rs 13-60. So Rs are performing worse with indies right now as a brand than we are. Right now their brand "leads" due to Rs being happy with their own party and Ds not.
In another measure of head to head, Congressional generic, we've been ahead in most surveys. So, bottom line, while the data is not great in comparison to them we are ahead in the head to head Congressional vote and overperforming in elections. The reason I asked for the citation is that those who have been arguing in their emails or commentary that this kind of data means we will lose in 2026 are misleading people. That is not what the data tells us right now.
But Dem leaders need to be paying attention to this and do more to address the legitimate concerns Dems have about their own leadership. That is how we fix it, but fixing it may not be required for us to have a strong election next year.
the infighting over at dkos has become epic, with kos lecturing all of us on democrats' poor messaging with others digging in that the loss was all due to racism. it's time to move on, we are only hurting ourselves. we lost, and trump is doing so badly he is handing the future to us on a silver platter. are we gonna do something with it, or argue incessantly over the last election? i've got a primary coming up in nj and most of the candidates are sending strong messages. can't sit around crying over spilt milk. i'll be actively engaged with this governor's race.
Your observation about dkos is a perfect example of why I stick to the comment section here. I really appreciate Simon's curation of the comments; I just don't have time to dwell in the blame and handwringing and doom that I find when I read commentary on other sites. It's a shame. By contrast, this group's remarks inspire and energize me every single day.
Trying to understand what went wrong, what might still be going wrong, and how to improve is healthy. But it is easy to slip into infighting too, which sounds like what you are describing.
In my view, reliving the past, or really any kind of discussion, is only helpful inasmuch as it indicates new action or gives people reason to be hopeful.
Thanks for taking the time to answer my question I appreciate it. And I do think the Dem leaders need to pay attention as you state. A low popularity like the Dems have now may not impact certain individual races as local politics and candidate quality certainly matter however I think it can be a headwind that could impact tight races.
Several things: First, it appears that the CDC is not in agreement with Musk about COVID vaccines for those under 65. At least for those of us fortunate enough to afford private doctors, the vaccine may be available "in consultation" with your doctor. Still tons of chaos and confusion sown!
As to Ernst's "We're all going to die" comment, that's not just a throw-away statement. It's one of the core beliefs of MAGAts (and other Rs).
Living in a red area for the last 5 years really helped me understand this. Whereas we come at things thinking that, of course, we should prevent unnecessary deaths, they have a more fatalistic attitude: We're all going to die, so I'm not willing to give up any of my freedoms or money to prevent deaths. We're all going to die so my freedom to collect guns is more important than kids getting shot up at schools. We're all going to die so my freedom not to wear a mask or get a vaccine is more important than spreading infection. (You see this in parents whose child dies from measles and they say, "She's better off where she is and away from 'all of this negativity.'" My former red-area dentist chided me during COVID for wearing a mask, saying his own grandfather died from COVID but "we can't live in fear." ) We're all going to die so my freedom to pollute/not pay for green energy initiatives, etc. is more important than kids dying from asthma and cancers. The list goes on and on.
I say this because I think there's a strong messaging opportunity for Dems here. Branding the Rs the party of "who cares if you die" and discrediting their "pro-life" stance is important. No Dem should ever mention her without bringing up her statement.
At any rate, I've been pleased to see Ken Martin seize her statement and use it against her, along with lots of other prominent Dems.
Catherine, you articulated what I think is an innate sense of why-bother fatalism and pessimism in MAGA, and GOP voters in general. It's even more extreme in religious evangelicals' beliefs that "everything happens for a reason' and is "God's will." That outlook on life is totally at odds with progressives' perspective that government exists to do good things for people--and will if good people with good policies are elected and appointed.
i would have asked him if he bothered to autoclave his instruments, since we can't all live in fear of getting, oh, hiv from unsterilized instruments......
I think some of this “we are all going to die, so who cares?’ May also come from Evangelical Christians with hard right beliefs. In their form of Christianity all that matters is what happens when you die. As long as you have accepted Jesus as your “savior” you will be fine in the afterlife. They have a risen Christ coming to seek retribution on the sinners and do not really focus on the living Jesus in the Gospels who calls you to care for the least of these. Trump would not have been elected both times without the support of the Evangelicals.
“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
P.S. : Dolos or the nation, you can only have one! The other side must choose! The madness will only subside until the next urge for “narcissistic supply” arises. This is not 4-D chess. It is most likely a form of something else. The new media must promote mental health practitioners— like the MSM has lawyers and other professionals.
P.P.S.: Do the following now! FIRST, TEACH CIVICS. Second, register voters. THIRD, TEACH CIVICS. Rinse. Repeat.
I watched the Joni Ernst clip in full. My question: Why is a new law needed to remove people from coverage who she claims aren’t eligible under current law???
My answer: she’s LYING.
Yes, Joni, we are all going to die. I hope you’re reminded of your comment when someone you love is denied medical care because of your greed.
I'm at a listening session with our state senator and the mayor (Loveland CO) at the library. The room is packed - they keep bringing in more chairs. A staffer for Lauren Boebert was in the room for the first forty minutes, and the sound level of the room immediately raised once he left. I think people were nervous about the notes he was taking. It seems that people care deeply about how our local officials are dealing with the crazy federal issues.
Been 8 hours since the Joni Ernest fiasco and not one Dem response has come up from searching on line. Why do I protest twice a week at a minimum, spend hours making unique signs, call my pols 2 or 3 times a week, donate to the party monthly, knock doors, support candidates, post card and attend town halls.? I got loud on this subject at the last one.
By now the Republicans would have had 3 Fox News hits, maybe an ad, talking points distributed and the choir would be singing in harmony and ready to ride this 17 months to victory. The Dems Crickets! A real activist Rev Al is barking because he know what a dogfight is. The Dems not so much. We have no comms machine, no sense of how to get our message out. We have a guy yelling on a street corner and they have a near international operation with a MAGAPHONE. I do this for my KIA/MIA uncle and Dad who spent 2 1/2 years on a 140 foot mine sweeper in WW2 along with my little clan of 10 where I am now the 70 year old patriarch. I’m a 55 year political junkie and know my stuff. Watched on J6 and told my wife what was about to happen two hours before the riot. Watched once again as we made the mistake of picking a jurist instead of a bulldog for Attorney General. We get outmaneuvered and out strategized at near every turn. The people we are up against are insane. Not prone to language but I am at the end of my fucking rope with the party. I’m giving it 3 more months and if they don’t get there shit together I’m gonna spend the end of life playing golf and music and let the chips fall where they lie. I’m getting to old for this. I’m a Covid Long Hauler due to our fucking Traitor in Chief and just can’t invest much more of myself. I have a contact to get this to someone at the party, but if you can do anything to pass this on to more connected people I would appreciate it. I am a one week subscriber and respect your efforts highly. Thanks for the space to rant and all you do
Yes, and a friend who teaches in Iowa City shared their paper. Her words were a gigantic front page headline. See Iowa Democratic Party on FB. After all, those are the people who need to know what she’s saying.
Great to know, thanks for posting. Laugh or cry at Joni Ernst?. The problems with rural health care are enormous to begin with, and - surprising to her, I guess - people want to live full and healthy lives.
Mark, while you are welcome here, the kind of sentiment in this post is not. We all know where we are and here we spend our time together trying to make things better, win elections, get things done and not "ranting" and talking down Democrats. You have now posted a second time saying that the DNC pushing out the Ernst clip and commenting on it was preaching to the choir (bad) when above you talk about the need to have the choir sing loudly which is what the DNC was attempting to do. The reality is that your post is wrong. I have seen the clips all over my socials these past 24 hours, the DNC has been aggressively pushing it out and it is even on the front page of the Des Moines Register - https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3lqijd6wll22r. The blowback has been so intense Ernst just put out a new video responding to the whole thing.
So let me be clear about how we do our business here - respectful at all times to each other and other Democrats, no dumping/ranting/crapping all over folks on our team, keeping the focus on Trump, getting stuff done and not arguing with others in the family. If you want to be part of all that, great. If you want to argue and crap all over Dems happy to refund your money and let you go do that somewhere else. Thank you and welcome to Hopium - Simon
And she has made it worse since her more complete comment really insulted her constituents even more saying something akin to she didn't realize that there were people in her audience who didn't think they were ever going to die then snarkily said that she was thinking about mentioning the tooth fairy. I think she's toast!
What a great conversation with terrific insights from both Simon and Ron Brownstein. All the way back to our days working together for Ralph Nader in the 1970s, I've always considered Ron one of the sharpest observers and analysts of the American political landscape.
Hope this is the first in a series of Hopium conversations with him.
Thanks for a fantastic, enlightening interview with Ron Brownstein--one of the best, sharpest, most articulate analysts of politics and current cultural events.
"We are all going to die."
– Senator Joni Ernst
I’m hoping those words prophetically refer to her own political career, and the career of many other MAGA Republicans who refuse to stand up to the unconstitutional acts of the Trump Regime!
That line was better delivered by Ralph Fiennes in "The Menu." The great deliberators of our time apparently.
Ron Brownstein is a great resource to go to, so kudos to Simon for going to him on long term trends with the working class. More Democrats should go to him for his reporting; a lot of which is on CNN or in The Atlantic.
Related to that point, I have a rural post coming up early in the week featuring a lot of information that should be used to court rural votes. Stay tuned for that on the Political Pulse blog. Will ben important to share that information with people in the Democratic Party so they can make inroads with rural voters for 2026.
The delivery that counts will be in 2026, in the campaign videos of Ernst’s Democratic challenger.
Expand that to every state and congressional district in the country pivotal to control of the House and Senate in 2026.
Iowa Senate seat must be in play after that comment. Let's put it in the blue column.
I, too, hope that Joni’s nonchalance about her constituents’ demise proves an anchor around her loathsome neck. Perhaps her ambivalence regarding human survival also helps to explain her support for Pete Hegseth, “hey, somebody is going to get us into catastrophic war—why not him?”
In a reply (written on her Senate letterhead, dated May 8), I was also surprised to be told, “Thank you for contacting me regarding deportations and El Salvador….Under an agreement between President Trump and El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, the countries are coordinating to return eligible deportees back to El Salvador.” Sure, Joni. Any day now.
There will be enough cruelty, lies, and depravity to fill a dozen anti-Joni ads. Check out Nathan Sage, who is running to replace her in ‘26:
https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/after-ernsts-town-hall-democrat-nathan-sage-meets-with-frustrated-voters-in-parkersburg-sen-joni-ernst-medicare-medicaid-veteran-program-cuts-va-benefits-veterans-care-sioux-citys-jim-carlin-indianolas-joshua-smith-cedar-rapids-john-berman
This just landed in my email:
https://open.substack.com/pub/thedemlabs/p/republican-death-panels-explains?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
I really think we need to run with "Republican death panels" - it certainly worked well for the GOP when they talked about "Obama Care" (see link below).
And in the case of the GOP's atrocious budget bill (stripping so many vulnerable people of healthcare and leading to the shutdown of many rural hospitals that depend on Medicaid $$) it will likely turn out to be true! Add to that the recklessness of RFK Jr. with regard to vaccines and it only gets worse!
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_elections:
Republicans gained seven seats in the Senate (including a special election held in January 2010) but failed to gain a majority in the chamber. In the House of Representatives, Republicans won a net gain of 63 seats, the largest shift in seats since the 1948 elections. In state elections, Republicans won a net gain of six gubernatorial seats and flipped control of twenty state legislative chambers, giving them a substantial advantage in the redistricting that occurred following the 2010 United States census. The election was widely characterized as a "Republican wave" election.
Im the last couple days I've been highlighting an idea by Anat Shenker-Osario's suggestion for MAGA MURDER BUDGET as the meme to pin on the reconilliation bill. Here is the Interview with Anand GIridharadas of The Ink Substack.
https://the.ink/p/watch-how-democrats-can-control-the-conversation
Start at 16:35 if you want to jump to the meat of it. I think this is an essiantial perspective about how to label this bill to help wake more people up to what we are facing. IMHO, Anat is very good at drilling into how messaging works and what's need in the moment.
I was hoping so as well. A friend from college is now a (R) representative to the Iowa House, and I asked him if he thought she might be vulnerable. His answer:
She’s very vulnerable but only if the stars align properly.
If a single, non-machine, conservative Republican takes her on in the primary, that could be the end of Phony Joni. The Republican base absolutely loathes her. There’s nothing to like. She’s a corrupt war pig. Very similar to the revolting Lindsey Graham.
But, if she wins the primary, she’s probably safe. She will almost certainly use the same weapons Lindsey Graham uses to win her primary. She’ll make sure that she has multiple credible Republicans challenging her. They will split the vote of the core Republicans, while big out-of-state money gins up turnout for enough votes to win the primary.
Our best bet is if she doesn’t run.
This week, my move to pace myself is leaning into humorous derision rather than fear, loathing and fury.
So elaborating on the thread from my comments yesterday, and with acknowledgement to Jimmy Kimmel's Thursday night monolog, i plan to go to 6/14 No Kings Day and do the TACO DANCE to YMCA complete with arm movements and rewritten lyrics.
Ive changed the opener to "Orange man.... you've been convicted of crimes, I said Orange man... you have ruined our times, Orange man, why you can't even dance, Orange man, and you wear diaper pants..."
(with more to come)
The event is themed 7 x 7000 i.e. 7000 protesters along 7 miles of El Camino Real in Sunnyvale CA in the heart of DogeBro country. I think it goes by 3 or 4 Tesla dealerships and my goal is to get as many dancers as possible... a 7 mile TACO conga line!
A humorous critique, if I may: While Ron Brownstein undeniably has beautiful nostrils, I would like to have seen more of him – for instance his eyes. Perhaps someone can suggest he reposition his webcam for his next interview/livestream?
😂 I listened while on a walk. I had to fidget with my phone. I saw his nostrils, mouth moving and chin. I also saw many comments quickly scrolling telling Simon and Ron. I put my AirPods back in and figured they had figured it out. I guess not! Great interview by the way.
This was my fault. The Substack Live platform only works on the app so we do it on our phones which makes it harder to frame and understand the shot. The tech is still really more beta than alpha at this point but every few weeks it gets closer to being what we need it to be.
All the same, it was a great interview! Thank you. :)
(As a bit of a luddite, I really despise that so many platforms are pushing their apps overly hard. Perhaps I’m in the minority, but I strongly prefer accessing web content through the browser on my laptop, never via my iPhone.)
Honestly I think that occasional problems like that make people seem more authentic and real. Watching people in their homes messing around with the tech and occasionally not getting things perfect might be more feature than bug.
The video looked fine on PC, exactly as shown in today's post. Must have been just on cell phones.
Well, I was watching it on my MacBook, live, and lots of people were mentioning the problem in the chat during the interview. Anyways, it was a great interview!
Yes, I saw the video and chat although I did not see the problem. Android vs. i-stuff is inherently incompatible, using their own proprietary software. I always figure that's part of the glitch.
Not sure I understand. I though both of us were watching the video, live, through our PC or Mac browsers? If so, there shouldn’t be a difference.
I recognize that the Substack app is an entirely different animal. (I don’t do anything through an app on my phone, at least nothing that I can do through a browser.)
I saw it the same way you did. Might have seen his eyes once or twice.
I admit that I am venting a bit this morning, but trying to do it constructively. The more data I see and the more I think about 2024, the more I realize how winnable it was for us, but we just made some unforced errors in the years prior and during the election that were... just ugh.
I am also venting because as I have discussed previously, my wife is an attorney for unaccompionied children in Dallas (she now works remotely). Some of her colleagues were in court yesterday and had to watch a 9-year old who was unrepresented try and describe their asylum case. A 9-year old. And there were other cases with unrepresented people who had no idea what they were doing and so the judge ruled they had two choices. Voluntary departure or a removal order. I mean, what the hell are we doing?
We are all working hard, I know that. But we need to work harder, faster and stronger. We all need to turn out on June 14th. We need to be overwhelming. I always knew that we would have to deal with awfulness and I know there is more to come. I am pushing in as many different directions as I can. And will keep doing so. I just needed to vent. Keep up all the good work everyone. Keep pushing.
Heart-breaking that they put people, even kids, in those situations! Best wishes to you, your wife, and your good work!
Thank you, Tim, for reminding us of the human toll of his cruelty with your examples. I find they give me more determination to work even harder!
I completely agree. I have a day where it wears me down and I come back the next day ready to fight harder.
Thank you for reporting on that. So important to keep the righteous anger and so disheartening to hear these stories but this is why we need to keep fighting.
Exactly. They fuel me to keep pushing.
Simon,
Despite all the bad things the Republican Party has done and continues to do under Trump 2.0 they are still viewed more favorably by the American public than the Democratic Party. In fact the latest YouGov poll has the Democratic Party 21 points more negative than positive. Twenty one point under water. Why is that? And how do the Dems turn that around prior to the 2026 mid terms?
JOEL ALLEN
Joel, before I answer, can you send me the citation for this? Where did the data come from?
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/the-democratic-party-favorability
Here is the parallel post for Repubs. https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/the-republican-party-favorability. The difference in popularity between the two parties could very well be within the margin of error and is affected by the percent of respondents answering "don't know."
Here's my short take: while not good, our brand weakness is due to a portion of Dems being disapointed in us and not indies. Whether that will impact turnout in the coming elections we don't know. So far it hasn't and yes we've been overperforming in elections which is all that matters. So far while Dems may be disapointed in us when it comes to voting we are performing. In digging into the numbers indies rate us 16-55, and Rs 13-60. So Rs are performing worse with indies right now as a brand than we are. Right now their brand "leads" due to Rs being happy with their own party and Ds not.
In another measure of head to head, Congressional generic, we've been ahead in most surveys. So, bottom line, while the data is not great in comparison to them we are ahead in the head to head Congressional vote and overperforming in elections. The reason I asked for the citation is that those who have been arguing in their emails or commentary that this kind of data means we will lose in 2026 are misleading people. That is not what the data tells us right now.
But Dem leaders need to be paying attention to this and do more to address the legitimate concerns Dems have about their own leadership. That is how we fix it, but fixing it may not be required for us to have a strong election next year.
the infighting over at dkos has become epic, with kos lecturing all of us on democrats' poor messaging with others digging in that the loss was all due to racism. it's time to move on, we are only hurting ourselves. we lost, and trump is doing so badly he is handing the future to us on a silver platter. are we gonna do something with it, or argue incessantly over the last election? i've got a primary coming up in nj and most of the candidates are sending strong messages. can't sit around crying over spilt milk. i'll be actively engaged with this governor's race.
Your observation about dkos is a perfect example of why I stick to the comment section here. I really appreciate Simon's curation of the comments; I just don't have time to dwell in the blame and handwringing and doom that I find when I read commentary on other sites. It's a shame. By contrast, this group's remarks inspire and energize me every single day.
Agree. So important!
You and me both. I just got back from an organizing meeting for the no kings rally here in Asbury Park!
had an issue over at TPM with people saying that Dems needed to let go of trans people. Argued for awhile, was grossly insulted for it, and gave up.
Trying to understand what went wrong, what might still be going wrong, and how to improve is healthy. But it is easy to slip into infighting too, which sounds like what you are describing.
In my view, reliving the past, or really any kind of discussion, is only helpful inasmuch as it indicates new action or gives people reason to be hopeful.
Infighting, if that is what it is, is never good.
Simon
Thanks for taking the time to answer my question I appreciate it. And I do think the Dem leaders need to pay attention as you state. A low popularity like the Dems have now may not impact certain individual races as local politics and candidate quality certainly matter however I think it can be a headwind that could impact tight races.
Again, thanks for you response.
Joel Allen
1. Seconding the request for a cite.
2. If that was true, explain Democratic overperformance in special elections this year.
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/the-democratic-party-favorability
https://www.aol.com/news/opinion-off-election-results-show-160000122.html
Great conversation, Simon!
Several things: First, it appears that the CDC is not in agreement with Musk about COVID vaccines for those under 65. At least for those of us fortunate enough to afford private doctors, the vaccine may be available "in consultation" with your doctor. Still tons of chaos and confusion sown!
As to Ernst's "We're all going to die" comment, that's not just a throw-away statement. It's one of the core beliefs of MAGAts (and other Rs).
Living in a red area for the last 5 years really helped me understand this. Whereas we come at things thinking that, of course, we should prevent unnecessary deaths, they have a more fatalistic attitude: We're all going to die, so I'm not willing to give up any of my freedoms or money to prevent deaths. We're all going to die so my freedom to collect guns is more important than kids getting shot up at schools. We're all going to die so my freedom not to wear a mask or get a vaccine is more important than spreading infection. (You see this in parents whose child dies from measles and they say, "She's better off where she is and away from 'all of this negativity.'" My former red-area dentist chided me during COVID for wearing a mask, saying his own grandfather died from COVID but "we can't live in fear." ) We're all going to die so my freedom to pollute/not pay for green energy initiatives, etc. is more important than kids dying from asthma and cancers. The list goes on and on.
I say this because I think there's a strong messaging opportunity for Dems here. Branding the Rs the party of "who cares if you die" and discrediting their "pro-life" stance is important. No Dem should ever mention her without bringing up her statement.
At any rate, I've been pleased to see Ken Martin seize her statement and use it against her, along with lots of other prominent Dems.
Dentists are the worst. They are MAGA as hell.
Catherine, you articulated what I think is an innate sense of why-bother fatalism and pessimism in MAGA, and GOP voters in general. It's even more extreme in religious evangelicals' beliefs that "everything happens for a reason' and is "God's will." That outlook on life is totally at odds with progressives' perspective that government exists to do good things for people--and will if good people with good policies are elected and appointed.
i would have asked him if he bothered to autoclave his instruments, since we can't all live in fear of getting, oh, hiv from unsterilized instruments......
Thank you for explaining this mindset so clearly. An "aha" moment for me.
Yes, this is so important! The messaging is so bizarre but they are so far down the rabbit hole. They don’t even see it/don’t care.
I think some of this “we are all going to die, so who cares?’ May also come from Evangelical Christians with hard right beliefs. In their form of Christianity all that matters is what happens when you die. As long as you have accepted Jesus as your “savior” you will be fine in the afterlife. They have a risen Christ coming to seek retribution on the sinners and do not really focus on the living Jesus in the Gospels who calls you to care for the least of these. Trump would not have been elected both times without the support of the Evangelicals.
This was an excellent presentation. Very eager to work on behalf of the state parties.
David Jolly is a great candidate! I know the Palm Beach event will be a great success and I would love to be there.
“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
― Frank Herbert, Dune
Here is a great interview of Mary Trump by the UK’s Telegraph: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcwasdoDMtg&list=TLPQMjQwNTIwMjWPXJkDe2T33Q . She has gone abroad to spread the word about democracy being in peril across the planet. I think others should follow her international lead.
Simon et al.:
I give you the brilliant and amazing Representative Jasmin Crockett: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxkHsfJj6Tc&list=TLPQMzEwNTIwMjX9d4Ve16lT5A. Dolos and his MAGAts cannot handle her “smoke”. She brings the receipts about the new MAGA Murder Bill! This interview will bring a smile to your face.
CARTHAGO DELENDA EST (via nonviolence).
P.S. : Dolos or the nation, you can only have one! The other side must choose! The madness will only subside until the next urge for “narcissistic supply” arises. This is not 4-D chess. It is most likely a form of something else. The new media must promote mental health practitioners— like the MSM has lawyers and other professionals.
P.P.S.: Do the following now! FIRST, TEACH CIVICS. Second, register voters. THIRD, TEACH CIVICS. Rinse. Repeat.
Hello everyone,
Just wanted to send out my latest post (co-written with my brother) on how "all the world's a stage and Trump's the clown."
The link is here: https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/p/all-the-worlds-a-stage-and-trumps. Greatly appreciate any feedback you all have for me (and him, in this case).
I watched the Joni Ernst clip in full. My question: Why is a new law needed to remove people from coverage who she claims aren’t eligible under current law???
My answer: she’s LYING.
Yes, Joni, we are all going to die. I hope you’re reminded of your comment when someone you love is denied medical care because of your greed.
Yes the House GOP came up with this ridiculous cover story for what they are really doing
I'm at a listening session with our state senator and the mayor (Loveland CO) at the library. The room is packed - they keep bringing in more chairs. A staffer for Lauren Boebert was in the room for the first forty minutes, and the sound level of the room immediately raised once he left. I think people were nervous about the notes he was taking. It seems that people care deeply about how our local officials are dealing with the crazy federal issues.
Fascinating interview, thank you, Simon!
Been 8 hours since the Joni Ernest fiasco and not one Dem response has come up from searching on line. Why do I protest twice a week at a minimum, spend hours making unique signs, call my pols 2 or 3 times a week, donate to the party monthly, knock doors, support candidates, post card and attend town halls.? I got loud on this subject at the last one.
By now the Republicans would have had 3 Fox News hits, maybe an ad, talking points distributed and the choir would be singing in harmony and ready to ride this 17 months to victory. The Dems Crickets! A real activist Rev Al is barking because he know what a dogfight is. The Dems not so much. We have no comms machine, no sense of how to get our message out. We have a guy yelling on a street corner and they have a near international operation with a MAGAPHONE. I do this for my KIA/MIA uncle and Dad who spent 2 1/2 years on a 140 foot mine sweeper in WW2 along with my little clan of 10 where I am now the 70 year old patriarch. I’m a 55 year political junkie and know my stuff. Watched on J6 and told my wife what was about to happen two hours before the riot. Watched once again as we made the mistake of picking a jurist instead of a bulldog for Attorney General. We get outmaneuvered and out strategized at near every turn. The people we are up against are insane. Not prone to language but I am at the end of my fucking rope with the party. I’m giving it 3 more months and if they don’t get there shit together I’m gonna spend the end of life playing golf and music and let the chips fall where they lie. I’m getting to old for this. I’m a Covid Long Hauler due to our fucking Traitor in Chief and just can’t invest much more of myself. I have a contact to get this to someone at the party, but if you can do anything to pass this on to more connected people I would appreciate it. I am a one week subscriber and respect your efforts highly. Thanks for the space to rant and all you do
I have seen a number of responses, including a statement from DNC Chair Ken Martin.
Yes, and a friend who teaches in Iowa City shared their paper. Her words were a gigantic front page headline. See Iowa Democratic Party on FB. After all, those are the people who need to know what she’s saying.
Great to know, thanks for posting. Laugh or cry at Joni Ernst?. The problems with rural health care are enormous to begin with, and - surprising to her, I guess - people want to live full and healthy lives.
Mark, while you are welcome here, the kind of sentiment in this post is not. We all know where we are and here we spend our time together trying to make things better, win elections, get things done and not "ranting" and talking down Democrats. You have now posted a second time saying that the DNC pushing out the Ernst clip and commenting on it was preaching to the choir (bad) when above you talk about the need to have the choir sing loudly which is what the DNC was attempting to do. The reality is that your post is wrong. I have seen the clips all over my socials these past 24 hours, the DNC has been aggressively pushing it out and it is even on the front page of the Des Moines Register - https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3lqijd6wll22r. The blowback has been so intense Ernst just put out a new video responding to the whole thing.
So let me be clear about how we do our business here - respectful at all times to each other and other Democrats, no dumping/ranting/crapping all over folks on our team, keeping the focus on Trump, getting stuff done and not arguing with others in the family. If you want to be part of all that, great. If you want to argue and crap all over Dems happy to refund your money and let you go do that somewhere else. Thank you and welcome to Hopium - Simon
This is getting lots of visibility here in Iowa. Joni isn't going to live this down before 2026.
And she has made it worse since her more complete comment really insulted her constituents even more saying something akin to she didn't realize that there were people in her audience who didn't think they were ever going to die then snarkily said that she was thinking about mentioning the tooth fairy. I think she's toast!
What a great conversation with terrific insights from both Simon and Ron Brownstein. All the way back to our days working together for Ralph Nader in the 1970s, I've always considered Ron one of the sharpest observers and analysts of the American political landscape.
Hope this is the first in a series of Hopium conversations with him.
Thanks for a fantastic, enlightening interview with Ron Brownstein--one of the best, sharpest, most articulate analysts of politics and current cultural events.