Let’s just take a moment to notice that large scale enforcement ended very quickly in Maine after it became evident that it would damage any hope of Collins being re-elected!
Deescalation? So they say – I’ll believe that when I see it. If true, the rumor is that this was done to hand Susan Collins a victory and help prop up her reelection chances.
For anyone interested in following the news on ICE actions in Maine, please follow the Portland Press Herald. As a public service, they are making all articles on ICE freely accessible. Here is the link:
I think de escalation is most likely just going to be more diffuse. They will be just as disruptive and violent but less concentrated. More places with fewer thugs in each place.
I was really encouraged by yesterday’s Republican failure to pass Cloture on their budget bill. They needed 60 votes and didn’t even come close. With all Democrats speaking with one voice, seven Republicans voting Nay for a variety of reasons, plus Thune casting a Nay vote for procedural reasons, it failed massively: 45–55.
The Senate reconvenes in two hours.
Clearly, Senate Democrats are scoring a serious victory by separating five big budget bills from DHS/ICE, and allowing a mere two-week Continuing Resolution for the latter while budget negotiations proceed. Moreover, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has managed to keep Democrats, even Fetterman, fully united.
QUESTION: Is it desirable for Democrats – and, if so, achievable – to next further separate out FEMA, the Coast Guard, THS, etc, and approve these separate from ICE and CBP? In other words, if Trump & the GOP refuse to make meaningful concession on ICE, then approve ONLY the non-controversial parts of the DHS budget...
In other words, whittle down further so the focus is entirely on ICE and the CBP.
I like this idea. Particularly with the huge ice storm that just rolled across the mid-South, funding FEMA is important. Plus TSA and of course the Coasties. I also like how it singles out ICE and CBP as the bad guys, for the optics of it.
Yes it’s desirable and hopefully achievable. Be an even stronger achievement if in the process of reigning in ICE Dems continue the supports people need from FEMA and the Coast Guard, etc. this would be a win-win.
Meantime…Fulton County needs a spotlight and voting rights loom large. Exhausting !
It's certainly possible for Congress to do that. I don't see why it's not desirable for Dems, but Rs may be reluctant to exclude only ICE and CBP so as to have some leverage over Dems.
I called Senator Graham's office - I am not from S. Carolina - and I left a strong message for him against his actions yesterday.
I will be joining the national boycott today and will not shop and I am sending word out inviting friends to do the same. We need regular boycotts in my view to have a great big impact.
Statement from NC's senator Thom Tillis this morning: "Kevin Warsh is a qualified nominee with a deep understanding of monetary policy. However, the Department of Justice continues to pursue a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell based on committee testimony that no reasonable person could construe as possessing criminal intent. Protecting the independence of the Federal Reserve from political interference or legal intimidation is non-negotiable.
My position has not changed: I will oppose the confirmation of any Federal Reserve nominee, including for the position of Chairman, until the DOJ’s inquiry into Chairman Powell is fully and transparently resolved."
After a day or so of "de-escalation", we can expect a full assault from Trump as seen by his Truth Social posting insanity, Georgia election raids and now the arrest of Don Lemon. I'm hoping Democratic leaders hold firm on the budget as the attacks get even more intense and crazy. Trump was embarrassed in Davos and the backlash from Minneapolis continues. He will be lashing out in all directions as his descent into madness accelerates.
Simon, I always appreciate your deep dive into the polls. I'm glad to see Trump bleeding support.
I suspect the Georgia voter rolls gambit goes like this: Trump's been told/has seen that he has more room to do whatever he wants when he invokes "national security." Gabbard is there to allow them to lie and say China, or Italy, or some other foreign county not named Russia, interfered in that election. So for "national security reasons," Trump can interfere in state and local elections this November. It will be up to the Dems to stop him.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen about ICE and the need to keep mentioning that Trump is literally out of his mind and must be removed. I'm writing postcards to NC voters. I think someone yesterday asked how to get involved in this project. Here's a link to the Postcards to Swing States page:
Encouraged by all this detailed polling. Going to call Booker & Kim & demand they hold to the demands we have been talking about. I think we need to keep a very close eye on the following:
Contracting for and building detention facilities around the country
Election security, attempted restrictions and what Marc Elias & others are doing about it.
About to sign in to my VoteRiders shift. Register those voters folks!
(PS - no shutdown for my birthday? That was what I was expecting, man! )
There hasn't been enough discussion about the deplorable conditions in detention centers and the plans to build more of them. Glad to see the progressive caucus has included this in their recommendations.
Simon, curious to hear your thoughts on whether the Dems are giving up too much leverage to get agreements to truly reform ICE by the agreement to move the other bills forward (per Robert Hubbell). Thanks.
Glenn Kirschner said this about Don Lemmon's arrest.
"Trump’s dirty DOJ leadership has arrested career journalist Don Lemon. They refuse to conduct legitimate investigations of the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, yet they bring charges against a reporter covering a protest at a church.
I suspect the case against Don Lemon will be as successful as were the cases against James Comey and Letitia James.
With every baseless arrest, the autocratic aims of the Trump administration become more obvious. With every vindictive prosecution, Trump’s dictatorial aspirations are on full display.
And with each FAILED PROSECUTION, Trump becomes weaker, exposing himself as a paper tiger who can threaten to prosecute but cannot successfully follow through. Recall that Comey and James crushed Trump’s dirty DOJ lawyers in court, winning dismissals of the trumped-up cases brought against them.
Let every Trump abuse of the rule of law and of the American people fuel you, motivate you, energize you to fight even harder - and ALWAYS peacefully - for American democracy."
Trump yearns for show trials. His utter inability to launch even a single trial shows how pathetic and delusional Mad King Donald and his boot-licking lawyers are!
Thank you for sharing. Well-said. I will add to the list of baseless claims, the FBI raid on voter data in Fulton County on Wednesday. The fact is that no Republican presidential candidate has won that county since Nixon 1972, even for R candidates who won the state overall. That he didn't win that county in 2020 was not due to fraud but to the simple fact that it's the largest county in GA and is very DEM. But he's too obtuse and arrogant to understand that. My personal belief is the raid is retribution for Fanni Willis having the "audacity" (in his mind) to criminally charge him. He was called out by a Black female and his feelings got hurt. I'm betting that DOJ will also bring baseless charges against her, at some point.
I keep reading about how bad trump is polling, but he doesn’t care and neither do republicans. I don’t see an upside and I don’t think Minneapolis does either.
If Trump were polling well, Rs wouldn't be splitting off from him in votes, but he isn't and they are. If the people were supporting ICE's current behavior, they wouldn't be backing down, but people don't and Rs are backing down. The leading R candidate for governor in MN dropped out. And Trump does care - his ego is too big and damaged to understand, but he does care. He talks about it, posts about it, it makes him upset and even more off-balance.
Michael Wolff, the author, has a very interesting take on Trump's relationship to the future of the R Party. Yes, it's Michael Wolff, so consider the source with all the caveats that come to mind, but I find it thoughtful:
Trump is so maladaptive that he will not tolerate being succeeded by any other Republican as President. He will sabotage the 2028 Repub candidate for President. With a Dem back in office, he can continue on in a sort of shadow presidency, a leader in exile, down in MaL.
The fact that NC senator Ted Budd is starting to make tiny noises about ICE is enormous! That man is one of the biggest bootlickers in the Senate. The polls, the calls, the general vibe of the country is making a difference.
Let’s just take a moment to notice that large scale enforcement ended very quickly in Maine after it became evident that it would damage any hope of Collins being re-elected!
Deescalation? So they say – I’ll believe that when I see it. If true, the rumor is that this was done to hand Susan Collins a victory and help prop up her reelection chances.
For anyone interested in following the news on ICE actions in Maine, please follow the Portland Press Herald. As a public service, they are making all articles on ICE freely accessible. Here is the link:
https://www.pressherald.com/tag/public-service/
I think de escalation is most likely just going to be more diffuse. They will be just as disruptive and violent but less concentrated. More places with fewer thugs in each place.
thanks for link
thank you.
really, had not heard that! can you post a link?
Yes, the maga attack is meant to be targeting blue states.
If this is not the place, sorry, but I needed to post this here. Don Lemon has been arrested
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/us/don-lemon-arrest-minnesota-church-protest.html?unlocked_article_code=1.IVA.PkAm.9H6nToIdYaUu&smid=nytcore-ios-share
I've added this to the main post this morning with a link to a thread about this I've started on Bluesky.
Thanks, Simon. I just finished teaching a three hour class on Zoom and now I'm catching up with the news
I'm watching Jim Acosta, Norm Eisen, and Katie live now.
They're just gonna raise the profile of free speech.
Simon updated the post
I was really encouraged by yesterday’s Republican failure to pass Cloture on their budget bill. They needed 60 votes and didn’t even come close. With all Democrats speaking with one voice, seven Republicans voting Nay for a variety of reasons, plus Thune casting a Nay vote for procedural reasons, it failed massively: 45–55.
The Senate reconvenes in two hours.
Clearly, Senate Democrats are scoring a serious victory by separating five big budget bills from DHS/ICE, and allowing a mere two-week Continuing Resolution for the latter while budget negotiations proceed. Moreover, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has managed to keep Democrats, even Fetterman, fully united.
QUESTION: Is it desirable for Democrats – and, if so, achievable – to next further separate out FEMA, the Coast Guard, THS, etc, and approve these separate from ICE and CBP? In other words, if Trump & the GOP refuse to make meaningful concession on ICE, then approve ONLY the non-controversial parts of the DHS budget...
In other words, whittle down further so the focus is entirely on ICE and the CBP.
On a lighter note, even Batman is lifting his voice in protest.
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c0key218pm4o
Thanks, I needed that.
that rules! love it!
Thank you. I stand with Batman.
Holy Cloture denial, Batman!
😂
I like this idea. Particularly with the huge ice storm that just rolled across the mid-South, funding FEMA is important. Plus TSA and of course the Coasties. I also like how it singles out ICE and CBP as the bad guys, for the optics of it.
Yes it’s desirable and hopefully achievable. Be an even stronger achievement if in the process of reigning in ICE Dems continue the supports people need from FEMA and the Coast Guard, etc. this would be a win-win.
Meantime…Fulton County needs a spotlight and voting rights loom large. Exhausting !
It's certainly possible for Congress to do that. I don't see why it's not desirable for Dems, but Rs may be reluctant to exclude only ICE and CBP so as to have some leverage over Dems.
Wow. Even Fetterman. I did not know this.
I called Senator Graham's office - I am not from S. Carolina - and I left a strong message for him against his actions yesterday.
I will be joining the national boycott today and will not shop and I am sending word out inviting friends to do the same. We need regular boycotts in my view to have a great big impact.
He was probably using his phone to contact some professional male entertainment.
The gift of laughter…thx u!
Also boycotting today!
I wonder what Lindsey Graham so desperately needs that money for? Does he have kneecappers coming after him or something?
Bet the book Don Lemon writes about this has better sales than Melania's doc in the movie theatres.
Statement from NC's senator Thom Tillis this morning: "Kevin Warsh is a qualified nominee with a deep understanding of monetary policy. However, the Department of Justice continues to pursue a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell based on committee testimony that no reasonable person could construe as possessing criminal intent. Protecting the independence of the Federal Reserve from political interference or legal intimidation is non-negotiable.
My position has not changed: I will oppose the confirmation of any Federal Reserve nominee, including for the position of Chairman, until the DOJ’s inquiry into Chairman Powell is fully and transparently resolved."
Here's Paul Krugman's opinion of Warsh:
Summary: Best case is he's ineffective.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-bad-heir-day-at-the-fed?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=277517&post_id=186312229&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=29jro2&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Good post Simon, thanks. Going to also listen to the Wilsons on the polling this morning.
Started donating to Vindman, have 30 postcards to mail today. Looking for volunteer opportunities with Vindman and /or Jolly campaigns.
Elissa Slotkin, who prides herself on being a centrist, is now calling for Miller to go, as well as Noem.
https://michiganadvance.com/2026/01/29/slotkin-calls-for-noem-to-step-down-dhs-funding-to-be-halted-without-ice-reform/
After a day or so of "de-escalation", we can expect a full assault from Trump as seen by his Truth Social posting insanity, Georgia election raids and now the arrest of Don Lemon. I'm hoping Democratic leaders hold firm on the budget as the attacks get even more intense and crazy. Trump was embarrassed in Davos and the backlash from Minneapolis continues. He will be lashing out in all directions as his descent into madness accelerates.
Simon, I always appreciate your deep dive into the polls. I'm glad to see Trump bleeding support.
I suspect the Georgia voter rolls gambit goes like this: Trump's been told/has seen that he has more room to do whatever he wants when he invokes "national security." Gabbard is there to allow them to lie and say China, or Italy, or some other foreign county not named Russia, interfered in that election. So for "national security reasons," Trump can interfere in state and local elections this November. It will be up to the Dems to stop him.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen about ICE and the need to keep mentioning that Trump is literally out of his mind and must be removed. I'm writing postcards to NC voters. I think someone yesterday asked how to get involved in this project. Here's a link to the Postcards to Swing States page:
https://secure.ngpvan.com/NPCPSG0VaUqaLw7w6AbNDg2?emci=6bad621a-e0fa-f011-8d4c-0022482d279b&emdi=f32ed685-99fb-f011-8d4c-0022482d279b&ceid=35425438
They will blame it on Venezuela and a compliant yellow dog government there will go along to stay in "power" and on Trimp's "good side."
Encouraged by all this detailed polling. Going to call Booker & Kim & demand they hold to the demands we have been talking about. I think we need to keep a very close eye on the following:
Contracting for and building detention facilities around the country
Election security, attempted restrictions and what Marc Elias & others are doing about it.
About to sign in to my VoteRiders shift. Register those voters folks!
(PS - no shutdown for my birthday? That was what I was expecting, man! )
Keep going!
Happy Birthday! 🧁✊🏼
Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday! What would you like – in addition to crushed ICE?
Batman storming the White House? lol
If only! Happy birthday!
Happy Birthday
Happy Birthday!!
Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday, Lisa! I was gonna buy you a present, but with the national buyers' strike, I can't. So sorry!
Happy Birthday! 🎂
Happy Birthday! (This is also my dog’s 10th Adoption Day!)
There hasn't been enough discussion about the deplorable conditions in detention centers and the plans to build more of them. Glad to see the progressive caucus has included this in their recommendations.
It's the New Dems and the progressive caucus.
And lots of Old Dems!
/s
Simon, curious to hear your thoughts on whether the Dems are giving up too much leverage to get agreements to truly reform ICE by the agreement to move the other bills forward (per Robert Hubbell). Thanks.
Where is the SAVE act in this mess? It must be STRIPPED OUT never to be seen again. Simon you should be all on this.
agree,I just posted about this.
Glenn Kirschner said this about Don Lemmon's arrest.
"Trump’s dirty DOJ leadership has arrested career journalist Don Lemon. They refuse to conduct legitimate investigations of the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, yet they bring charges against a reporter covering a protest at a church.
I suspect the case against Don Lemon will be as successful as were the cases against James Comey and Letitia James.
With every baseless arrest, the autocratic aims of the Trump administration become more obvious. With every vindictive prosecution, Trump’s dictatorial aspirations are on full display.
And with each FAILED PROSECUTION, Trump becomes weaker, exposing himself as a paper tiger who can threaten to prosecute but cannot successfully follow through. Recall that Comey and James crushed Trump’s dirty DOJ lawyers in court, winning dismissals of the trumped-up cases brought against them.
Let every Trump abuse of the rule of law and of the American people fuel you, motivate you, energize you to fight even harder - and ALWAYS peacefully - for American democracy."
Trump yearns for show trials. His utter inability to launch even a single trial shows how pathetic and delusional Mad King Donald and his boot-licking lawyers are!
Thank you for sharing. Well-said. I will add to the list of baseless claims, the FBI raid on voter data in Fulton County on Wednesday. The fact is that no Republican presidential candidate has won that county since Nixon 1972, even for R candidates who won the state overall. That he didn't win that county in 2020 was not due to fraud but to the simple fact that it's the largest county in GA and is very DEM. But he's too obtuse and arrogant to understand that. My personal belief is the raid is retribution for Fanni Willis having the "audacity" (in his mind) to criminally charge him. He was called out by a Black female and his feelings got hurt. I'm betting that DOJ will also bring baseless charges against her, at some point.
I totally agree. And it's also no coincidence that it was Don Lemon, a gay Black journalist, who got arrested. Trump's racism and sexism are epic.
I keep reading about how bad trump is polling, but he doesn’t care and neither do republicans. I don’t see an upside and I don’t think Minneapolis does either.
If Trump were polling well, Rs wouldn't be splitting off from him in votes, but he isn't and they are. If the people were supporting ICE's current behavior, they wouldn't be backing down, but people don't and Rs are backing down. The leading R candidate for governor in MN dropped out. And Trump does care - his ego is too big and damaged to understand, but he does care. He talks about it, posts about it, it makes him upset and even more off-balance.
Michael Wolff, the author, has a very interesting take on Trump's relationship to the future of the R Party. Yes, it's Michael Wolff, so consider the source with all the caveats that come to mind, but I find it thoughtful:
Trump is so maladaptive that he will not tolerate being succeeded by any other Republican as President. He will sabotage the 2028 Repub candidate for President. With a Dem back in office, he can continue on in a sort of shadow presidency, a leader in exile, down in MaL.
The fact that NC senator Ted Budd is starting to make tiny noises about ICE is enormous! That man is one of the biggest bootlickers in the Senate. The polls, the calls, the general vibe of the country is making a difference.