I have no idea what most Americans think. But isn't there a good chance that a majority of them have a pretty clear view of the unfairness involved in these redistricting battles? In the extreme manipulations? That they see how anti-democratic this is? Isn't there a chance that they might support across-the-board non-partisan redistricting plans or proportional representation? Maybe it's time to start pushing these ideas more broadly.
If Democrats can pull off winning in 2026 and 2028, with a sizable margin in the House and Senate, we might get the prohibition on partisan gerrymandering. But the instituonal inertia of the 2 party system will be tough to break. The politicians would have to agree to make themselves more vulnerable to losing elections, giving up advantages they currently have.
I mean, the nature of the presidential primary elections is nonsensical and carries severe biases which are well known. In theory, it would be easy to restructure when states hold their primary elections so that on the last day of the cycle, 30-50% of delegates would still be up for grabs. That would mean all states would matter in the primary, and there would still be potential for the primary to remain competitive. But states get advantages by holding their primaries early, so they don't want to change, and candidates want to secure victory early rather than have to compete the whole time.
I think it’s worth emphasizing that we could very well knock off a few of the gerrymandered districts in TX and could also win one and maybe two of the current GOP districts in VA. So, not every gerrymandered district is an automatic win for the GOP.
I remain convinced that an unapologetic message of economic populism and anti-corruption is the key to saving our democracy. It must be fervent, unrelenting and laser-focused.
Thanks for the "buck-up" today, Simon. Much needed and appreciated. As we work together to keep each other going, to keep democracy going, we do need to look to our courageous brothers and sisters in Europe--especially in Ukraine and Hungary--for inspiration and backbone. They've taken everything Putin and Orban could dish out--all the rigging; all the subterfuge; all the destruction--and yet they haven't given up. In fact, they've turned the tide in their favor. So must we. So will we.
Thanks, Simon, for the clear-eyed assessment of where we are.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say three things. First, I want them to stop the ballroom, arch, seizure of DC's public golf courses, tearing down of the Kennedy Center, etc. Greg Sargent has a good take on Trump's ballroom: that it's not just a weird vanity project. It's an attempt to impose his dictator will on our most basic symbols. Second, Dems should not vote any money for the Defense Dept. or for this war until Hegseth resigns or is fired. Third, the president is out of touch with reality and must be removed. His mad posting all night on social media of insane lies, grandiose memes, and bizarre grievances makes clear that he can't be left in charge.
I'm writing postcards to Ohio voters today. If we just keep doing the work through good times and bad, we have a great shot at winning.
What the f*ing Roberts court has done is reprehensible. The gutting of the voting rights act, which has been a goal of his from almost its inception, just makes my heart hurt. The GOP cannot win on policy so it has win by denying people fair representation. Not sure when that became a policy with them perhaps with the contract for America, maybe with the southern strategy, and surely by the time the supreme court interferred with the Gore Bush election, Roberts is key to many of these horrific decisions along with Alito and Thomas. We need to heed Marc Elias and realize they think they have gotten in the drivers seat, but we need to be sure that this latest Jim Crow incarnation does not get to be the norm. The mainstream media have surrended to the autocarcy and we cannot rely on them for help. We need to continue to fight for every seat possible and for the democracy. As indivisible says, democracy is not a spectator sport and we are all players, so I have to put my hurting heart aside and get back to work. Thanks for the update!
Deborah - I am fully with you. I'm trying to not let the outrage overtake me to the point that I can't keep fighting. Thanks for your sentiments this morning, I needed to read them!
The thing that scares me most about last week is it demonstrates the capacity and eagerness of Republicans to, for lack of a better term, inflict pain on the country, democracy, and Democrats. That they see themselves as Rulers, not elected officials, and if democracy won't validate their rule, what was unthinkable (e.g. stopping elections after ballots have been cast) becomes not just good strategy, but a reason to gloat. To flaunt their willingness to rig the system, confident that they cannot be held accountable.
For me, it's hard not to fear that a future where Democrats win decisively and have the willingness to use power aggressively to restore democracy is more a mirage than a possibility.
That's not to say we shouldn't fight and try to flood the polls, but that waves like 2008 are history, and threadbare victories like 2020 are what we can expect. They will be worth fighting for because we've seen the horrors that outright losses bring
I would not call 2020 threadbare at all. I was a comprehensive victory and a thorough rebuke (at the time) of Trump.
I think Dems were a little Naïve in using (or not using) the power of having the trifecta though and were not helped by a couple of Senators who had their own 'agendas' (and of course not having SCOTUS hurts a lot).
And then the DOJ totally flubbed the criminal prosecutions are basically let the guy of the hook and look where we are now!!
I think we all feel like we have been kicked somewhere sensitive in the last few days!!
But we fight on.
Must admit to feeling slightly stupid in my naivety regarding the levels to which they would stoop, but at least now we know there are very few depths to which they will not sink and that the gloves are well and truly off.
Democrats and democracy defenders will have to be prepared to respond in kind, even if this goes against our better natures.
And if anyone needs a bit of a pick me up, then these charts and graphs highlighting just how unpopular (I might even say despised) Trump is might help...
It's a very odd sensation for me to be more optimistic and positive than Simon, but here we are! I've long been of the mind that the worse things get, the closer we move to overcoming this historic assault on our decency. People are pissed at being yanked out of their low information cocoons, and they distinctly do NOT like what they see happening. I read it in the polling, I see it in election results around the country, and I hear it spoken by the people around me. Our job every single day from now through November 3rd is to make sure that we urge every single person we know to register and VOTE. Hungarians ousted Orban by voting in numbers that couldn't be disputed, and we need to do everything in our power to move Americans to follow their lead!
Yes, I is certainly worth remembering that the US is nowhere near as far gone as Hungary was on the authoritarian scale and look what has just happened there.
People do still have the power and it will be about convincing enough of them to use it in the right way.
If we can get enough of them on our side, then nothing else will matter.
Last week I posted my shock and frankly disgust with how Sen. Mark Warner’s social media post led with his “respect” for the VA SC decision.
Today my disgust is directed to the NYT, whose headline used the word “Desperate” to describe Democrats. I actually read the article and the content does not match the offensive headline.
So Marc Elias is right about how the MSM is framing the issue. While I don’t have any brilliant suggestions, might it be worthwhile to have our activism also focus on calling out the enabling behavior of the MSM and our calcified family members? Perception becomes reality.
I whipped off an email to Reid Epstein (author of the NYT article) to express my ire, and most days I don’t fall for the clickbait, but I am just one person.
Here’s the link to NYT article. Not gifting because they don’t deserve the clicks.
NY-17 is a district that D’s can flip this November (per the Cook report). This weekend I attended a meet-and-greet for one of the candidates running to unseat Rep. Lawler. There were about 75 people there and the enthusiasm in the room was amazing! I am hopeful that whoever wins the nomination in June, will carry this grass roots support into the general.
I’d like to thank Simon and the whole Hopium community for inspiring me to be more politically active - do more, worry less
I just finished making my calls this morning to my D representatives in DC cheering them on and bringing up the president’s firing of the National Science Foundation Board. I will call the AG here in New Mexico to thank him for all the strong work that he’s doing. And I want to make sure everyone is aware of this event against what happened with Callais on May 16. It looks like the kind of thing that could bloom into a large coalition protest with sister demonstrations across the country https://blackpowerwarroom.com/dayofaction/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I found Jess Craven's pep talk about tge Virginia redistricting ruling very reassuring and full of hopium! She mentions talks about efforts to flip state legislatures at the end. It makes sense to me that we should do what we can to get more dem led states before the next census. Any extra funds you happen to have left from our Hopium campaigns would be well spent on the states project. https://chopwoodcarrywaterdailyactions.substack.com/p/quick-emergency-virginia-peptalk?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=197kn
I'm almost to the point that I don't care what crazy sh*t he does next, and I'm sick to death of that smarmy voice with his slurring narcissism. We have one job no matter what he comes up with next to harm our country - win big in November. That's it - all hands on deck. Democracy Forward, Democracy Docket, ACLU, etc. will take care of the lawsuits. Our governors will fight. Our Senators and Representatives will fight. But we have to win big in November.
I am spending time this week revising my DEI class to include Callais. I teach students about slavery, Reconstruction, Plessy, Brown v Board, and the VRA, and by God they're going to learn about the Roberts Court tearing all our progress since Reconstruction. I hope I don't get fired, but I'm willing to risk that. It's always been very important to me that I teach them facts and honest history about the stain of race inequality we have borne since 1619 in this country, and I want them to know exactly what's happening and what the cost is to those of us who deeply believe in equality and equity for every human being.
I am SO thankful for this community. You are wonderful people.
I have no idea what most Americans think. But isn't there a good chance that a majority of them have a pretty clear view of the unfairness involved in these redistricting battles? In the extreme manipulations? That they see how anti-democratic this is? Isn't there a chance that they might support across-the-board non-partisan redistricting plans or proportional representation? Maybe it's time to start pushing these ideas more broadly.
If Democrats can pull off winning in 2026 and 2028, with a sizable margin in the House and Senate, we might get the prohibition on partisan gerrymandering. But the instituonal inertia of the 2 party system will be tough to break. The politicians would have to agree to make themselves more vulnerable to losing elections, giving up advantages they currently have.
I mean, the nature of the presidential primary elections is nonsensical and carries severe biases which are well known. In theory, it would be easy to restructure when states hold their primary elections so that on the last day of the cycle, 30-50% of delegates would still be up for grabs. That would mean all states would matter in the primary, and there would still be potential for the primary to remain competitive. But states get advantages by holding their primaries early, so they don't want to change, and candidates want to secure victory early rather than have to compete the whole time.
I think that first they have to know about it. Who knows if they do?
I think it’s worth emphasizing that we could very well knock off a few of the gerrymandered districts in TX and could also win one and maybe two of the current GOP districts in VA. So, not every gerrymandered district is an automatic win for the GOP.
I remain convinced that an unapologetic message of economic populism and anti-corruption is the key to saving our democracy. It must be fervent, unrelenting and laser-focused.
Thanks for the "buck-up" today, Simon. Much needed and appreciated. As we work together to keep each other going, to keep democracy going, we do need to look to our courageous brothers and sisters in Europe--especially in Ukraine and Hungary--for inspiration and backbone. They've taken everything Putin and Orban could dish out--all the rigging; all the subterfuge; all the destruction--and yet they haven't given up. In fact, they've turned the tide in their favor. So must we. So will we.
Kagan's essay is so bleak but rings true unfortunately. I am sitting stunned reading it so no more words.
Thanks, Simon, for the clear-eyed assessment of where we are.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say three things. First, I want them to stop the ballroom, arch, seizure of DC's public golf courses, tearing down of the Kennedy Center, etc. Greg Sargent has a good take on Trump's ballroom: that it's not just a weird vanity project. It's an attempt to impose his dictator will on our most basic symbols. Second, Dems should not vote any money for the Defense Dept. or for this war until Hegseth resigns or is fired. Third, the president is out of touch with reality and must be removed. His mad posting all night on social media of insane lies, grandiose memes, and bizarre grievances makes clear that he can't be left in charge.
I'm writing postcards to Ohio voters today. If we just keep doing the work through good times and bad, we have a great shot at winning.
What the f*ing Roberts court has done is reprehensible. The gutting of the voting rights act, which has been a goal of his from almost its inception, just makes my heart hurt. The GOP cannot win on policy so it has win by denying people fair representation. Not sure when that became a policy with them perhaps with the contract for America, maybe with the southern strategy, and surely by the time the supreme court interferred with the Gore Bush election, Roberts is key to many of these horrific decisions along with Alito and Thomas. We need to heed Marc Elias and realize they think they have gotten in the drivers seat, but we need to be sure that this latest Jim Crow incarnation does not get to be the norm. The mainstream media have surrended to the autocarcy and we cannot rely on them for help. We need to continue to fight for every seat possible and for the democracy. As indivisible says, democracy is not a spectator sport and we are all players, so I have to put my hurting heart aside and get back to work. Thanks for the update!
Deborah - I am fully with you. I'm trying to not let the outrage overtake me to the point that I can't keep fighting. Thanks for your sentiments this morning, I needed to read them!
The thing that scares me most about last week is it demonstrates the capacity and eagerness of Republicans to, for lack of a better term, inflict pain on the country, democracy, and Democrats. That they see themselves as Rulers, not elected officials, and if democracy won't validate their rule, what was unthinkable (e.g. stopping elections after ballots have been cast) becomes not just good strategy, but a reason to gloat. To flaunt their willingness to rig the system, confident that they cannot be held accountable.
For me, it's hard not to fear that a future where Democrats win decisively and have the willingness to use power aggressively to restore democracy is more a mirage than a possibility.
That's not to say we shouldn't fight and try to flood the polls, but that waves like 2008 are history, and threadbare victories like 2020 are what we can expect. They will be worth fighting for because we've seen the horrors that outright losses bring
I would not call 2020 threadbare at all. I was a comprehensive victory and a thorough rebuke (at the time) of Trump.
I think Dems were a little Naïve in using (or not using) the power of having the trifecta though and were not helped by a couple of Senators who had their own 'agendas' (and of course not having SCOTUS hurts a lot).
And then the DOJ totally flubbed the criminal prosecutions are basically let the guy of the hook and look where we are now!!
Good words Simon.
I think we all feel like we have been kicked somewhere sensitive in the last few days!!
But we fight on.
Must admit to feeling slightly stupid in my naivety regarding the levels to which they would stoop, but at least now we know there are very few depths to which they will not sink and that the gloves are well and truly off.
Democrats and democracy defenders will have to be prepared to respond in kind, even if this goes against our better natures.
Whatever it takes I guess.
And if anyone needs a bit of a pick me up, then these charts and graphs highlighting just how unpopular (I might even say despised) Trump is might help...
https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker
He still has Idaho, Wyoming and West Virginia on lock though!!!
Thanks! This is indeed encouraging.
"He still has Idaho, Wyoming and West Virginia on lock though!!!"
be patient Thomas. It's only May.
It's a very odd sensation for me to be more optimistic and positive than Simon, but here we are! I've long been of the mind that the worse things get, the closer we move to overcoming this historic assault on our decency. People are pissed at being yanked out of their low information cocoons, and they distinctly do NOT like what they see happening. I read it in the polling, I see it in election results around the country, and I hear it spoken by the people around me. Our job every single day from now through November 3rd is to make sure that we urge every single person we know to register and VOTE. Hungarians ousted Orban by voting in numbers that couldn't be disputed, and we need to do everything in our power to move Americans to follow their lead!
Yes, I is certainly worth remembering that the US is nowhere near as far gone as Hungary was on the authoritarian scale and look what has just happened there.
People do still have the power and it will be about convincing enough of them to use it in the right way.
If we can get enough of them on our side, then nothing else will matter.
Last week I posted my shock and frankly disgust with how Sen. Mark Warner’s social media post led with his “respect” for the VA SC decision.
Today my disgust is directed to the NYT, whose headline used the word “Desperate” to describe Democrats. I actually read the article and the content does not match the offensive headline.
So Marc Elias is right about how the MSM is framing the issue. While I don’t have any brilliant suggestions, might it be worthwhile to have our activism also focus on calling out the enabling behavior of the MSM and our calcified family members? Perception becomes reality.
I whipped off an email to Reid Epstein (author of the NYT article) to express my ire, and most days I don’t fall for the clickbait, but I am just one person.
Here’s the link to NYT article. Not gifting because they don’t deserve the clicks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/10/us/politics/democrats-virginia-plans-gerrymandering.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
A glimmer of light from NY-17:
NY-17 is a district that D’s can flip this November (per the Cook report). This weekend I attended a meet-and-greet for one of the candidates running to unseat Rep. Lawler. There were about 75 people there and the enthusiasm in the room was amazing! I am hopeful that whoever wins the nomination in June, will carry this grass roots support into the general.
I’d like to thank Simon and the whole Hopium community for inspiring me to be more politically active - do more, worry less
I just finished making my calls this morning to my D representatives in DC cheering them on and bringing up the president’s firing of the National Science Foundation Board. I will call the AG here in New Mexico to thank him for all the strong work that he’s doing. And I want to make sure everyone is aware of this event against what happened with Callais on May 16. It looks like the kind of thing that could bloom into a large coalition protest with sister demonstrations across the country https://blackpowerwarroom.com/dayofaction/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I found Jess Craven's pep talk about tge Virginia redistricting ruling very reassuring and full of hopium! She mentions talks about efforts to flip state legislatures at the end. It makes sense to me that we should do what we can to get more dem led states before the next census. Any extra funds you happen to have left from our Hopium campaigns would be well spent on the states project. https://chopwoodcarrywaterdailyactions.substack.com/p/quick-emergency-virginia-peptalk?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=197kn
I'm almost to the point that I don't care what crazy sh*t he does next, and I'm sick to death of that smarmy voice with his slurring narcissism. We have one job no matter what he comes up with next to harm our country - win big in November. That's it - all hands on deck. Democracy Forward, Democracy Docket, ACLU, etc. will take care of the lawsuits. Our governors will fight. Our Senators and Representatives will fight. But we have to win big in November.
I am spending time this week revising my DEI class to include Callais. I teach students about slavery, Reconstruction, Plessy, Brown v Board, and the VRA, and by God they're going to learn about the Roberts Court tearing all our progress since Reconstruction. I hope I don't get fired, but I'm willing to risk that. It's always been very important to me that I teach them facts and honest history about the stain of race inequality we have borne since 1619 in this country, and I want them to know exactly what's happening and what the cost is to those of us who deeply believe in equality and equity for every human being.
I am SO thankful for this community. You are wonderful people.