Join me live and in person this Thursday night at 7pm in Bethesda, Maryland - Join us, bring friends and colleagues! Will be great to see folks in person......
Great summary by Simon! And this is about as succinct as it gets: "At the end of the day … [Congressional Republican] incumbents and candidates have to be getting alarmed at what is happening to their election prospects."
That raises the inevitable question: faced with a choice between Democracy and Power, what will Trump and Republicans choose?
We know Trump’s choice; he has made it crystal clear. And while MAGA might be on board with choosing Power, I am not convinced most Republicans in Congress are. They might be cowed, but not all or even most are cultists or outright Fascists.
But it must alarm them that both Republican and Independent voters are helping Democrats win one Special Election after another – with consistent double-digit overperformances by Democratic candidates.
.
Nevertheless, we will be wise to heed the warnings of Timothy Snyder.
“We are seven months away from the most consequential midterm election in the history of the United States. Meanwhile, we are fighting a war. These are the structural conditions for a coup attempt in which a president [might try] to nullify elections and take permanent power…
“Trump is surrounded by people who are making money from the war; each day of war strengthens a warmongering lobby with personal access to the president. As the war lengthens, the chance that it will be exploited for a coup attempt increases.”
Trump’s budget, with drastic cuts to civilian spending and massive increases to the military, would mean huge profits to the billionaires making a windfall off a turbocharged American arms industry.
We can:
– STOP Trump’s insane budget
– STOP additional funding of ICE and the Border Patrol
– STOP the SAVE Act’s disenfranchisement of tens of millions of voters
– WIN back both the House and the Senate!
– WIN downballot races in states all across America!
Trump can control the military, but not the civilians. Hence the direction of his ‘budget’, yes? Trump consistently says, “All for me, nothing for you.” Total dictatorship control.
I think that we need a plan to protect the ballots and voting machines. It is not enough to go to court after they have been seized. We need to prevent the seizure in the first place. I'm not sure how to go about it. Could some governors use their National Guard to protect ballot sites, or does that introduce other problems? It's just been too easy for the FBI in Georgia, and that sheriff in Riverside, CA to get a judge to sign off on ridiculous warrants.
Marc Elias did a presentation in which he listed the things we can do right now to protect the election - I can't find that presentation, but there is a lot of the same content in his presentation to Commit to Democracy: https://youtu.be/C9Ua4TOiV4E?si=9cglvWzZm8P2cs21
This article on the next coup attempt is a prescient warning with creating panic. Despite the alarming title, Timothy Snyder clearly explains Trump's weaknesses compared to historical precedents and emphasizes that we must be aware in advance of all the ways Trump might try to use war or terrorist attacks as propaganda to hold onto power.
He is not a steady hand at the wheel, his war is not spreading democracy or any other virtuous purpose, he is losing wars and dividing the US instead of uniting us behind a winning cause, his calls (or Hegseth's) for sacrifice in the name of fascism or Christian Nationalism are falling on deaf ears and in particular driving young men away from the Republicans. If, God forbid, there is a terrorist attack on the US he will not be able to rally the public to defend the country for he and the Republicans have made the US weak, vulnerable, isolated, and disliked.
The more widely known the content of this article is, the more prepared we are to counter anything Trump will try. I would love to see an interview where he can go into greater depth on his historical comparisons.
Trump is crazy-pants. All the smartest people in law and politics and the public are fully aware that Trump will do his best to cheat, or cancel the election. It hasn't worked before, and it wont work this time... but we must remain ever vigilant.
It gets darker ... darkest ... before the dawn. The polls show trump's disastrous mismanagement of the office of the president, and it's taking that to wake everyone up. The cult may just stay in their caves, but except for the wealthy, the rest of us are feeling all of it. Thank you, Simon, for this post today.
Simon, I am trying to imagine a power-sharing scenario. Would Trump have to agree to it? What would it look like?
There is a sleeper special election on Tuesday. April 7th, in the GA 14th CD. Democrat Shawn Harris, a cattle farmer and retired Brigadier General, is running to win the MTG-vacated seat in Congress. If the remote possibility of his winning were to come to pass, the R’s would lose control of the House according to his campaign materials. So, on top of everything else we need to be doing, please send up special prayers that the highly unlikely results that we desperately need to come to pass actually happen.
I have the same question. What is wrong with them? I'm pretty sure part of it is the inane normalization of it all. It is very hard to listen to the actual speech of most legislators, reporters, etc., in the first place. To almost never hear crystal clear and righteously angry counterattacking by "our side" is literally (and I do mean that literally) maddening.
Did all my usual stuff (calls to 2 TX Senators, facebook posts, etc.) plus gave more money to Talarico and Colin Allred. Reserved 4 signs for each at the Dallas Democratic Headquarters to be picked up Monday. One sign will go on the extremely high-visibility corner where a friend lives. Sent a HCR/Talarico interview about how his faith informs his politics to a religous Republican friend with whom I had an agreement not to argue over our political differences. I said, "This is different and I think you will find this Senatorial candidate very appealing."
i dont do a lot of substacks. but here at hopium we are advocating for a coalition govt to save us. to just stop the damage satan is doing to the world and america and dig ourselves out of this deep gigantic hole. are other groups/orgs/electeds having this conversation quietly? if so, it will have to be a public conversation. it is the easiest path out of trumpism. yes, repubs will have to choose between brute power and saving the country. but we are here now. winning the house & senate will also do it but with more damage being inflicted. does congress have the cajones to do this?? msm? corporations? oligarchs?
Outside of impeachment or 25th Amendment, we don't have a way to rapidly stop or change the governing group and we are paying dearly for the ways in which our system allows minority rule to take power. Johnson and Thune beginning to squeak a little opposition feels like way too little and way too late! This cabinet will never invoke the 25th amendment, and this senate will never impeach any of the lawless officials currently flailing around in Washington breaking everything I hold precious in our democracy and our world relations. Timothy Snyder posted a great analysis today about the several things to watch for over the next few months to prevent a coup at election time by Trump and his loyalists. I strongly urge everyone to read it. His Substack is called Thinking About.
I tend to think removal of Trump could be similar to Nixon or Biden in the campaign. Members of his own party would approach him to resign. Admittedly any number of factors but this war is such a calamity that this may be a possibility.
I agree with the analysis that as Trump feels himself getting weaker, he is becoming more maniacally desperate to regain his sense of power and manhood. The aspect of this I don't hear discussed is the other side of it. That is, as Trump weakens, he increasingly experiences himself as female, which he identifies as weak and vulnerable. This is terrifying to him.
[See Martha Nussbaum's discussion in "Aging Thoughtfully" of "King Lear" and her allusion to Janet Adelman's analysis of the play.]
I saw it and appreciate your link. I urge everyone to provide links if they tell people about something they think good or useful. Easy to do and very useful for the conversation.
Sorry, I would prefer to do it that way, but I am seriously visually impaired at this point and trying to navigate all this with screen readers. It is extremely cumbersome at times, and so I ask your indulgence to look up the reference. Just FYI, screen readers read out every last letter and digit in links, even the links behind pictures (while NOT describing the picture unless it is correctly coded with an alt text). It can be very tedious!
Thanks! I hope to learn how to be more competent on this stuff, like I once was when I had better vision but it's a slog sometimes! Your encouragement today is meaningful.
Petrol and diesel prices are also sky rocketing here in Europe but more seriously the talk is turning to fuel rationing - scary times and also crazy that this is all man made and there does not seem to be anyone able to apply the brakes to all this madness
I’m content to see the wheels coming off the bus, but find the “just now” realization of Thune and Johnson completely disqualifying. Honestly I think they have always known. They chose the illusion of power over principle.
Alas, if they break from the shitshow, I would welcome them. While emotionally unsatisfying I still maintain Trump doesn’t fall without the Republicans (who made him) doing him in. As others have posted, cue Nixon and Biden.
Enjoy the spring holiday season. Whatever your faith, or lack thereof, it’s an inspiring reminder that lightness returns.
Disqualifying. Great word to describe the behavior/votes/actions of such a large number of legislators. Vote 'em out - and do not ever vote 'em back in. Is what I want to happen.
Please, please stop calling this illegal, fail of a “military operation”the “Iran war”; call it what it is: the “Trump War.” (And not the Gulf War.” Perhaps the “Golf War.”?) Or even more accurately World War Trump (WWT).
As we did after WWII, we’ll need a Marshall Plan to tear down the disasters these Nazis have constructed for themselves and against us. Bulldoze it all, and rebuild for our children. Never Forget: Never Again.
Until we remove big money from our politics we will never be safe from the traitor class
Axe Citizens United. Pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. It's in our future if we do the work.
Thanks for posting on the holiday weekend. 🪺🪺🪺
To clarify: Paxton is likely to win the Republican primary in Texas. This would give James Talarico a better chance of winning in November.
Source of Paxton’s lead?
I updated that section in the online post with recent Texas runoff polling data, and clarified as Gene implies. See here - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/starting-the-painful-process-of-picking.
Thx.
Thx for the clarification. I was wondering…
Great summary by Simon! And this is about as succinct as it gets: "At the end of the day … [Congressional Republican] incumbents and candidates have to be getting alarmed at what is happening to their election prospects."
That raises the inevitable question: faced with a choice between Democracy and Power, what will Trump and Republicans choose?
We know Trump’s choice; he has made it crystal clear. And while MAGA might be on board with choosing Power, I am not convinced most Republicans in Congress are. They might be cowed, but not all or even most are cultists or outright Fascists.
But it must alarm them that both Republican and Independent voters are helping Democrats win one Special Election after another – with consistent double-digit overperformances by Democratic candidates.
.
Nevertheless, we will be wise to heed the warnings of Timothy Snyder.
“We are seven months away from the most consequential midterm election in the history of the United States. Meanwhile, we are fighting a war. These are the structural conditions for a coup attempt in which a president [might try] to nullify elections and take permanent power…
“Trump is surrounded by people who are making money from the war; each day of war strengthens a warmongering lobby with personal access to the president. As the war lengthens, the chance that it will be exploited for a coup attempt increases.”
https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-next-coup-attempt
Trump’s budget, with drastic cuts to civilian spending and massive increases to the military, would mean huge profits to the billionaires making a windfall off a turbocharged American arms industry.
We can:
– STOP Trump’s insane budget
– STOP additional funding of ICE and the Border Patrol
– STOP the SAVE Act’s disenfranchisement of tens of millions of voters
– WIN back both the House and the Senate!
– WIN downballot races in states all across America!
Trump can control the military, but not the civilians. Hence the direction of his ‘budget’, yes? Trump consistently says, “All for me, nothing for you.” Total dictatorship control.
I think that we need a plan to protect the ballots and voting machines. It is not enough to go to court after they have been seized. We need to prevent the seizure in the first place. I'm not sure how to go about it. Could some governors use their National Guard to protect ballot sites, or does that introduce other problems? It's just been too easy for the FBI in Georgia, and that sheriff in Riverside, CA to get a judge to sign off on ridiculous warrants.
Marc Elias did a presentation in which he listed the things we can do right now to protect the election - I can't find that presentation, but there is a lot of the same content in his presentation to Commit to Democracy: https://youtu.be/C9Ua4TOiV4E?si=9cglvWzZm8P2cs21
This article on the next coup attempt is a prescient warning with creating panic. Despite the alarming title, Timothy Snyder clearly explains Trump's weaknesses compared to historical precedents and emphasizes that we must be aware in advance of all the ways Trump might try to use war or terrorist attacks as propaganda to hold onto power.
He is not a steady hand at the wheel, his war is not spreading democracy or any other virtuous purpose, he is losing wars and dividing the US instead of uniting us behind a winning cause, his calls (or Hegseth's) for sacrifice in the name of fascism or Christian Nationalism are falling on deaf ears and in particular driving young men away from the Republicans. If, God forbid, there is a terrorist attack on the US he will not be able to rally the public to defend the country for he and the Republicans have made the US weak, vulnerable, isolated, and disliked.
The more widely known the content of this article is, the more prepared we are to counter anything Trump will try. I would love to see an interview where he can go into greater depth on his historical comparisons.
Well said!
Trump is crazy-pants. All the smartest people in law and politics and the public are fully aware that Trump will do his best to cheat, or cancel the election. It hasn't worked before, and it wont work this time... but we must remain ever vigilant.
Yes--it's textbook "prebunking" - prepare the public for the disinfo to follow. Statistically proven to be effective.
It gets darker ... darkest ... before the dawn. The polls show trump's disastrous mismanagement of the office of the president, and it's taking that to wake everyone up. The cult may just stay in their caves, but except for the wealthy, the rest of us are feeling all of it. Thank you, Simon, for this post today.
Simon, I am trying to imagine a power-sharing scenario. Would Trump have to agree to it? What would it look like?
There is a sleeper special election on Tuesday. April 7th, in the GA 14th CD. Democrat Shawn Harris, a cattle farmer and retired Brigadier General, is running to win the MTG-vacated seat in Congress. If the remote possibility of his winning were to come to pass, the R’s would lose control of the House according to his campaign materials. So, on top of everything else we need to be doing, please send up special prayers that the highly unlikely results that we desperately need to come to pass actually happen.
Wonder why Thune and Johnson are just waking up. Did they not see this coming or just unwilling to admit it.
I have the same question. What is wrong with them? I'm pretty sure part of it is the inane normalization of it all. It is very hard to listen to the actual speech of most legislators, reporters, etc., in the first place. To almost never hear crystal clear and righteously angry counterattacking by "our side" is literally (and I do mean that literally) maddening.
Did all my usual stuff (calls to 2 TX Senators, facebook posts, etc.) plus gave more money to Talarico and Colin Allred. Reserved 4 signs for each at the Dallas Democratic Headquarters to be picked up Monday. One sign will go on the extremely high-visibility corner where a friend lives. Sent a HCR/Talarico interview about how his faith informs his politics to a religous Republican friend with whom I had an agreement not to argue over our political differences. I said, "This is different and I think you will find this Senatorial candidate very appealing."
Well done, keep fighting for Texas
i dont do a lot of substacks. but here at hopium we are advocating for a coalition govt to save us. to just stop the damage satan is doing to the world and america and dig ourselves out of this deep gigantic hole. are other groups/orgs/electeds having this conversation quietly? if so, it will have to be a public conversation. it is the easiest path out of trumpism. yes, repubs will have to choose between brute power and saving the country. but we are here now. winning the house & senate will also do it but with more damage being inflicted. does congress have the cajones to do this?? msm? corporations? oligarchs?
happy easter weekend hopiums!
"Iran is the second term COVID. And we're all gonna have to stick a light bulb up our ass..."
I submit to you all that the award for Quote of the Month (thus far) goes to Jim Acosta.
https://youtu.be/jdEyWJSIhpo?si=wXWCWV7jZVdYRYeM
Love it!
Drink bleach! Spray Lysol in your mouth!!!
Thanks, Simon! Good to see the polls moving in the right direction.
I wonder if you have any insight into Hegseth purging so many folks at the top of our military? He's got to be impeached.
I'm finishing up postcards to Virginia voters on redistricting. Glad to see you helping out with phone banking for VA!
Outside of impeachment or 25th Amendment, we don't have a way to rapidly stop or change the governing group and we are paying dearly for the ways in which our system allows minority rule to take power. Johnson and Thune beginning to squeak a little opposition feels like way too little and way too late! This cabinet will never invoke the 25th amendment, and this senate will never impeach any of the lawless officials currently flailing around in Washington breaking everything I hold precious in our democracy and our world relations. Timothy Snyder posted a great analysis today about the several things to watch for over the next few months to prevent a coup at election time by Trump and his loyalists. I strongly urge everyone to read it. His Substack is called Thinking About.
I tend to think removal of Trump could be similar to Nixon or Biden in the campaign. Members of his own party would approach him to resign. Admittedly any number of factors but this war is such a calamity that this may be a possibility.
I agree with the analysis that as Trump feels himself getting weaker, he is becoming more maniacally desperate to regain his sense of power and manhood. The aspect of this I don't hear discussed is the other side of it. That is, as Trump weakens, he increasingly experiences himself as female, which he identifies as weak and vulnerable. This is terrifying to him.
[See Martha Nussbaum's discussion in "Aging Thoughtfully" of "King Lear" and her allusion to Janet Adelman's analysis of the play.]
I'm not a psychologist, but I've always felt that Trump must harbor a lot of self hatred for which he's trying in vain to compensate.
Ahhh, those were the days! If some Trump sycophants suddenly see the light and pull a Goldwater, I will keel over. (But that's OK - do it anyway!)
If you mention it, please link it.
I quoted from Snyder’s analysis and linked to it in my comment. After Simon’s detailed Hopium, Snyder’s analysis is well worth reading.
I saw it and appreciate your link. I urge everyone to provide links if they tell people about something they think good or useful. Easy to do and very useful for the conversation.
Sorry, I would prefer to do it that way, but I am seriously visually impaired at this point and trying to navigate all this with screen readers. It is extremely cumbersome at times, and so I ask your indulgence to look up the reference. Just FYI, screen readers read out every last letter and digit in links, even the links behind pictures (while NOT describing the picture unless it is correctly coded with an alt text). It can be very tedious!
Kudos to you for persevering! ArcticStones posted the Snyder link earlier, so here it is again:
https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-next-coup-attempt
Thanks! I hope to learn how to be more competent on this stuff, like I once was when I had better vision but it's a slog sometimes! Your encouragement today is meaningful.
Petrol and diesel prices are also sky rocketing here in Europe but more seriously the talk is turning to fuel rationing - scary times and also crazy that this is all man made and there does not seem to be anyone able to apply the brakes to all this madness
I’m content to see the wheels coming off the bus, but find the “just now” realization of Thune and Johnson completely disqualifying. Honestly I think they have always known. They chose the illusion of power over principle.
Alas, if they break from the shitshow, I would welcome them. While emotionally unsatisfying I still maintain Trump doesn’t fall without the Republicans (who made him) doing him in. As others have posted, cue Nixon and Biden.
Enjoy the spring holiday season. Whatever your faith, or lack thereof, it’s an inspiring reminder that lightness returns.
Disqualifying. Great word to describe the behavior/votes/actions of such a large number of legislators. Vote 'em out - and do not ever vote 'em back in. Is what I want to happen.
Please, please stop calling this illegal, fail of a “military operation”the “Iran war”; call it what it is: the “Trump War.” (And not the Gulf War.” Perhaps the “Golf War.”?) Or even more accurately World War Trump (WWT).
As we did after WWII, we’ll need a Marshall Plan to tear down the disasters these Nazis have constructed for themselves and against us. Bulldoze it all, and rebuild for our children. Never Forget: Never Again.
How do we know that we can trust the Labor Department statistics on job growth?