For those in or near Boston on Monday (tomorrow), two Harvard cases are being heard in Judge Burroughs' courtroom at Moakley Courthouse on the harbor (Northern Ave & Courthouse Way) at noon, so Crimson Courage (the alum association trying to help Harvard stay strong) is holding a rally and press conference from 12 noon - 2:30, same building. If you're not nearby, maybe help on social media.
I really appreciate those hopeful statistics but marvel they are not yet in the 30s. The other hopeful note is his physical deterioration… it’s hard to ignore even by the most ardent cult members.
There is no reason to "but" this data. Its disastrous for him, a sign of his diminishing powers. Any weakening of that understanding is doing MAGA's work for them.
This whole "it needs to be lower" sentiment in our family I am certain was originated by right wing trolls and we have stupidly and recklessly aped it.
I think for people like me, I lack a lifetime of experience interpreting polls, so I don’t necessarily understand what I am looking at. Watching how you interpret them helps me. Statistics are counterintuitive, often even if you are good at statistics.
Another thing for me is my no doubt faulty memory of past polling. Without looking it up, I recall similar polling for President Biden when he stepped down after doing a great job, or President Obama after 8 years. I also remember W being even lower. So I struggle to understand why Trump’s numbers *seem* so similar. Maybe they aren’t.
And finally, I know I at least am guilty of some projection. I follow politics closely and am careful to vet my sources, and I know I incorrectly assume everyone else does too. After hearing about the ICE kidnappings for weeks on end, I was astonished two weeks ago when a friend said it was “only illegals” and denied that they beat up the father of three Marines only 20 miles from his home.
So I try to pay closer attention to how *you* describe the polls than to the numbers themselves. It has become clear that I simply don’t have the skill (yet) to interpret them well.
Right wing interference no doubt plays a part, too. They are such liars when it comes to polls.
Trump’s decline has been incredible rapid, deep and comprehensive. I am still shocked by it. But it’s real and it’s a serious problem for them. We are here every day pulling the curtain back from the Wizard, reminding the American people the burnt orange clown is not wearing any clothes. It’s a process and theu can lie and spin all they want but they all thought the world and the American people see his “STRENGHT” and bend the knee. It’s not happening.
it's a real shame the MSM who rode joe out of the WH with millions of stories about his age (and then the debate) turn a blind eye to the sleeping, lying, bumbling, doddering, incompetent fool. he gets a pass while the best president of our lifetimes was hounded. if the MSM would shine a spotlight on donny 2 dolls, his polls would have collapsed by now!!! corporate oligarchy!
Its great that it's "shockingly low" through your exceedingly experienced lens, Simon. That's fantastic to read. I mean it.
But, from February to November in 1973, Nixon went from 68% to 26% in ten months. Trump gotta long way to go to break that record, but I'm still rooting for him. I still believe he can make it, but I wouldn't put any money on it, lol.
The Nixon numbers are not apples to apples. We live in a very different time, and getting Trump to 40% - which I always assumed was his floor - is an incredible collective achievement by all of us. Again him being at 40% means 60% of the country is not with him - that's enough for now.
I was serving in the Navy when Nixon, in 1972, won 49 out of 50 states.
His betrayal of his oath -- compared to Trump was trivial. But, what he could NOT count on then were members of the party of Lincoln who would also betray their oaths to protect him. That is what it would have taken.
When they went to him and urged him to resign, the WORLD looked on with admiration how our system could oust such a leader -- who won such an overwhelming majority.
Back then, we could take pride and point to a system that WORKED.
Today, our system is severely broken. Unlike any other time since the founding .. only We the People can restore it.
One of the reasons I’ve stuck with Hopium after cutting the cord to so many other groups and leaders is that Simon understands how damaging and counterproductive so much of our own discourse is. And right now, IMO, the ONLY thing that matters is continuing to push for the release of all Epstein materials. This is a rare instance where political expediency and a clear cut moral imperative are directly aligned and the opposition is one of the worst human beings on the planet.
Agreed! I noticed the incredibly negative comments on Bluesky under Simon’s post about his Ken Martin interview. I suspect those people haven’t even watched that interview and know nothing about Martin or the DNC. They are part of some army of trolls.
Yes. I have been posting positive things on Ken Martin’s FB and IG posts. He gets a lot of flak. I can’t imagine those people actually know much about him.
I particularly liked the sequence where Ken said that "within the larger Pro-Democracy movement, the Democratic party's job is to win elections." That is straight to the point, and reminds me why as a "not so party guy," I still give to the DNC with enthusiasm and will again today.
Agreed, Simon, Dems & pro-democracy movement much farther along than #worthlessScribblers of Corporate media (nod to @JeffTiedrich for that terminology). Don’t do #MAGATTES work for them! If we keep working hard #MangoMussolini will be in the 30s soon enough
Right on, Simon. Does Agent Orange's approval rating have to reach zero before people are satisfied? Last I checked, winning an election took 50% +1 vote. Despite headwinds -- and they are significant ones -- we are still a democracy.
Was wondering the same thing. Isn't 40% low enuf to lose in the midterms? It shows how fragile his coalition was. It seemed to be held together by collective animus which is not a solid foundation.
While Trump is at his weakest, we need to convince House Republicans that they can declare themselves independent, caucusing with Democrats and extend their careers.
If they stick with Trump, riding his lead coattails into oblivion, their legacy will be that of complicit tools in the dismantling of democracy.
The alternative to that is to #FlipTheHouseAndBeAHero. Simon, please ask Ken Martin to consider telling potential defectors that they will not face any DNC opposition in 2026 if they remain independents. Obviously they can’t be primaried by Republicans.
So that simple act by the DNC can give them career security. They might even find themselves leaders of GOP 2.0 after the complete implosion of this version of the party.
Part of Project Carrot is to urge them to rebrand themselves as the #ConstitutionalConservativeCaucus. This is a very precise way to differentiate themselves from the outgoing regime.
The third part of my #ProjectCarrot concept will be a tougher ask: have new speaker Jeffries award the first six to flip with a committee chair. Not only will this give them power in the short term, but it will set them up for being bipartisan actors actually making a difference.
Giving something valuable away in this context is what you have to do to make deals quickly. You sweeten the pot, and present a reality superior to the path we are currently on. And what CCC member wouldn’t want to be a hero for the history books?
This is the front end of Project Carrot. I’ll post the next steps on my feed shortly. But frankly, I’m not trying to make a big splash with this because I’d like Democrats to have these three enticements available to them without a wall of pushback.
Again, Simon, please talk to Ken about this. If just that one factor is agreed to, activists can dangle that particular carrot before the eyes of potential CCC members.
Imagine Indivisible being a positive influencer, changing the playing field. I can, and that’s what helps me sleep at night.
Strictly speaking, every MAGA in Congress has violated their oath of office. But the repercussions for that aren’t terribly punitive.
Since before Biden, there have always been politicians involved in seditious conspiracy. That number has grown dramatically since November. In the right hands, that could have a lot more bite.
I think one tactic that Democrats should use right now is to compile a list of violations and violators of the Constitution that could be in the crosshairs of investigations if the House were to flip this summer.
So many of the unqualified, unethical picks that Trump has confirmed through the Senate feel that they are truly untouchable. I call that #OrangePrivilege.
If #ProjectCarrot does flip the House this summer, part of the fun will be to see how that arrogance sees their careers ripped to shreds.
"every MAGA in Congress has violated their oath of office"
Thank you. That is a VERY good place to pound a stake into the ground.
"compile a list of violations and violators" I totally agree. What I strongly endorse doing is to penalize those removed under violating their oath of office by denying them pensions and perks from their former unfaithful service. We the People can do this.
The "carrot" reminds me of this scenario: "Dear, Benedict Arnold. We know you've been a bad boy, but we'll be willing to overlook all that...if you...."
I get weary thinking of yet more investigations.. they didn't convince enuf Americans to vote against Trump in the last election. What makes you think they'd be effective next time around?
Hey Todd, the only thing that will change the GOP is if they decide that sticking with Trump will threaten their seat, and they are willing to put up with the death threats (unlike Murkowski) because they want a life in congress after the lame duck stinky old man with rotting feet leaves the stage.
"We" , the pro-democracy crowd might be able to help peel off some doubtfuls at the margins, but Epstein, Murdoch and (perhaps) Musk will be doing the heavy lifting for us in fracturing MAGA hopefully to splinters or even smithereens.
I wonder if Junior will try to compete against Vance for the crown. You don't hear much from that coke head lately. Maybe Tucker will take a shot at it.
But I digress, I'm going to call my AG and remind him that ICE is still running around wearing masks and no nametags in unmarked vans and without warrants.
I agree, Michael. And, I don't think the younger Trump wannabes (including Vance and Yucker) have the necessary 'charisma' to continue to lead MAGA to the promised land.
They don't. Herding republicans is like herding three fractious breeds of cat.
Jr. VD the VP doesn't have the juice to get it done nor does he possess stones in sufficient number to force the issue.
In my opinion he is a candy-ass candle in the wind.
Tucker is a christian nationalist punk who has an aching need to punish others but doesn't want to dirty his widdle hams. What a weak-kneed hussy that Tucker is.
You have some very interesting ideas for breaking the DJT stranglehold on Republican legislators. If there are strategies to help them stand up and stop compromising their beliefs and feelings, give them a whirl.
Thank you! My hope is that with the #ProjectCarrot approach, there is something that reaches to the heart of House Republicans, something that reminds them of their early idealism.
We don’t have to agree on their philosophical agendas, only that inner yearning to do what’s right. And they can see already that what’s right has zero in common with what Trump and his #ClownCabinet are putting us through.
Now I again say to them: #FlipTheHouseNOWAndBeAHero.
Problem: on the least contentious funding bill where Congress could show some spine, they caved so what and how will things change for the other funding bills?!? Rubber stamping Baby man’s agenda seems to be the Republicans’ power, protests in the streets not withstanding😳. “Fox News” and right wing echo machine always working to undermine and ignore truth, it seems. How will this end?!?
We the People will prevail! We will meet Meet this Moment in time with the strength and passion needed to take back Congress in the midterm elections and build the best new country that we can imagine in our finest dreams.
I was given a code to get back into Hopium, with no directions about what to do with it. I didn't think it would work in here, but I didn't know what else to do with it. And I did get in, but I might have gotten in anyway.
Just reply to the reauthentication email and the code lets you right in. Since I'd restarted my computer since I was last here, I had to do the same thing just a few short minutes ago.
This Administration doesn't seem to be responding to the polls, if anything they are speeding up their destruction of our country and our democracy. The Supreme Court is letting unconstitutional acts like the destruction of the Dept of Education happen by reversing two lower courts without an explanatory decision or a single signature. Congress continues to pass Trumps extremest agenda -goodbye most of USAID and PBS. The Trump Administration and its cast of crazy characters don't seem to be slowing down their destruction although Trump seems to be in physical decline. What is going to be left when we finally get to elections where these polls matter?
We the People will prevail. We will meet Meet this Moment in time with the strength and passion needed to take back Congress in the midterm elections and build the best new country that we can imagine in our finest dreams.
Courage! We don't have to let Trump and his corrupteds take over our country any more than the people of Ukraine have to let Putin take over their country. There are way more of us.
Mark, this is not true. They respond to the polls every day. They lie about his standing; they lie about their bill not cutting Medicaid and the deficit; they are openly talking about extending the ACA subsidies. They respond to public opinion all the time it is just 1) they are in a delusional place about how bad it is 2) they believe that through their money and our "weakness" they can bullshit the country through it all, again. 3) they are extremists and cannot slow down this insane train they are on. That's why we have to keep working as hard as we can for we weakening them and have to keep going.
You can bet that GOP members in swing districts are paying a LOT of attention to the polls! That's where we might eventually start to see some pushback. It makes all of our calls all that much more important, because Congress does have real power, but only if we can peel away some of the GOP. We don't even need that many!
Thanks, Simon. Great post. I find your posts very helpful. Some weeks after so many bad policies and harmful actions like ICE, it is hard to see how we can change our nation’s trajectory toward all that is good. The conservative intention, supported by SCOTUS, to make the presidency all powerful is destroying us. The Republicans in Congress having given up their powers to him should just resign. Why pay their salaries? Judge Luttig’s analysis of the loss of the rule of law is superb, yet frightening. Unless we have a national strike which will hit the greedy wealthy where it matters, i don’t see a remedy. I am not counting on the midterms. So much of our country will be destroyed by then. You help me keep hope alive.
I agree that it’s hard to be optimistic. The fact that Trump has pressured Texas to redistrict suggests to me both he and Republicans in Congress are worried about the midterms. I think we will have elections but many attempts at voter suppression.
Redistricting starts in session tomorrow. I don't know what the game plan, but best of luck to those in Texas fighting the good fight. You're gonna need it.
For those in Texas and Ohio, it might be worth looking into the Hofeller Files. The deceased mapmaker behind them did work all over the country, including in Texas and Ohio. A sign of what is to come in the upcoming redistricting sessions. Look into it. I can refer a blog post on this if needed.
That's what I suspect. Once the stores start to empty and prices start to rise, even the Fox viewers are going to be aware that things are not going well.
It starts with a series of 3 trainings and local gatherings. The first training was on July 16, and you can get to it from this website. It is EXCELLENT! You can also sign up for the remaining 2 sessions, and get the recordings directly.
The first training is from a live stream, and actually starts around the 6-1/2 minute mark. The section on Authoritarianism 101 starts at the 15-minute mark and runs about 15 minutes. So important to listen to. But the entire training is such a good use of time. Please pass the word, and get involved.
When you say that the coalition that elected him is unraveling I’d like to see a poll that specifically includes that coalition. Unless I missed something, the ones you show are of the general public. I’d be more optimistic if his faithful were turning away from him.
We saw something on CNN in that last few days that had him at close to 90% approval specifically among republicans. I worry about that because I think that polling is what keeps the repubs in Congress ceding their power to him.
They also say that the enthusiasm for Democrats is 28%. Every month its the same number and approximately the same number of respondents. Makes me wonder if they are contacting the same people. I look at the fact that we have been winning elections and if Democrats, Independents and other allies vote this year in local and state elections we will continue to win - "bigly".
In our recent DTC meeting we had a huge turnout for people who want to do something. I will be writing postcards to new members, titled " Your Voice Matters" urging them to work with the DTC or on the DTC. I look at the town committees as the seed of a plant, the state is the strong stem and the national is the blossom. You have to start with a strong seed and continue to nourish the rest of the plant. Local is where it all begins.
I'm not trying to spread repub talking points. I am asking questions to try to figure out what is and is not true- not so easy these days. I appreciate the info that you shared.
He has a 90% support with people who identify as Trump supporters. He won 2024 by winning over the independents who don’t identify as Trump supporters and because a lot of Biden 2020 voters sat out 2024.
History is important. It should be cherished. This nation has a rich and complicated history.
SO, I BELIEVE HISTORY HAS ARRIVED AGAIN AS AN INFLECTION POINT FOR WHITE AMERICA. Dolos may have a unique historical antecedent that many Americans will likely not recognize (or even know about). This antecedent is one - David Curtis Stephenson originally from Texas and later Indiana. In the 1920s, he was the highly charismatic and politically powerful Grand Dragon of the Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. Stephenson became one of the key players in the Second Klan (i.e. from 1915 to approximately 1944): https://beltmag.com/grand-dragon-dc-stephenson-kkk-indiana/ .
For the day, he had his own social media channel, a newspaper, that was highly influential amongst the citizenry. In addition, Stephenson was personally able to obtain a percentage of each Klan state membership along with possible money from ancillary items such as hoods and so on. Consequently, he became one of the wealthiest individuals in the state from preying on people’s emotions (i.e. extreme hate and resentments). Supposedly, Stephenson studied Mussolini before the guy from Germany became in vogue for hating non-White, non-Protestant peoples: https://nypost.com/2023/06/10/how-one-brave-woman-took-down-a-power-hungry-ku-klux-klan-leader/ .
More importantly, David Curtis Stephenson began to believe his own hype— especially after a number of Klan-inspired political victories (e.g. “I am the Law”). It has been my humble observation that racism and misogyny are opposite sides of the same coin (WARNING - Includes description of a sexual assault): https://www.wrtv.com/longform/madge-oberholtzer-the-murder-that-brought-down-the-ku-klux-klan . In spite of an outwardly pious image, Stephenson was known in certain circles for being somewhat of a sexual predator, with parties at his Indiana mansion that would surprise the late Jeffrey Epstein.
With this profile in mind, Stephenson “kidnapped”, “raped”, and caused the death of a young woman, Madge Oberholtzer, who met him only to save her job in Indiana’s Department of Education from facing extreme cutbacks by a new state government supported by the Klan. Sadly, it took about a month for Ms. Oberholtzer to succumb to her poisoning. Her death helped to move her state and eventually her nation away from a path of hate and darkness [Petty, A.F. (2020, August 21). The Fall of the Grand Dragon. The Belt Magazine. https://beltmag.com/grand-dragon-dc-stephenson-kkk-indiana/ ]:
“The death of Madge Oberholtzer shocked Indianapolis, and disgraced Stephenson. Though Stephenson was a racist and bigot of the most unrepentant sort, he was not brought down by those qualities, or by the actions that resulted from them. These were tolerated, even encouraged by Indiana society at every level, from the small towns to the state Senate. Rather, Stephenson was only disgraced when he violated that which American racism so frequently claims to defend: the virtue of white womanhood.”
With a basis in QAnon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon) and a firm belief that Democrats are pedophiles, is MAGA functionally the Third or Fourth … [fill in the blank]? Make America Great Again would take you back to what year? What is their problem with DEI? Why are many Republicans concerned about the “Great Replacement Theory”? So, always remember that the National Socialists actually used “Jim Crow” as a type of inspiration for their evil work (Bill Moyers was a national treasure): https://billmoyers.com/story/hitler-america-nazi-race-law/ . History is often inconvenient.
CARTHAGO DELENDA EST (via nonviolence).
P.S. : DEMOCRATIC officials keep mentioning (and showing) Jan. 6 and the PARDONS relative to the current “law and order” push by Dolos and his associates. This is a simple but strong contrast. Use social media to promote testimonies by former “January 6 Commission” members and witnesses. YES, re-litigate Jan. 6 - again and again and again. Dolos needs to realize that he lives in a GLASS HOUSE. Go on Faux News Channel because it is just like an “unrepresented” Republican district - i.e. plenty of visuals devoid of facts. The VISUAL EVIDENCE IS NOW ON YOUR SIDE. GO ON ESPN (a male-leaning channel) and express concern about the viability of the pending World Cup with actors like Dolos and Miller in the mix. With measles rampant and anti-vax officials influencing policy, will tourists want to visit the USA (weak ticket sales?): https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/soccer/heres-what-fifa-president-gianni-infantino-said-about-ice-cbp-agents-at-club-world-cup/ar-AA1GwUkA ?
P.P.S.: Do the following now! FIRST, TEACH CIVICS. Second, register voters. THIRD, TEACH CIVICS. Rinse. Repeat.
P.P.P.S.: Every local office of the Democratic Party and of the elected officials (including state representatives on up) must become a site for civic teach-ins and a clearing house for needed services (with Federal departments being sabotaged). The fact is that Democrats believe in the value of government and of government service, and the other side (i.e. the MAGAts and the illiberals) simply doesn’t. This engagement process will make registering partisan voters and teaching civics much easier.
That photo of Infantino and The Infantile is so telling!
Dear anyone, Am I going to have to house ICE-related homeless? Maybe I can.
JEFFERY Epstein has found his purpose. It's not the same thing but let's all think about what our purpose is. NOW!
For those in or near Boston on Monday (tomorrow), two Harvard cases are being heard in Judge Burroughs' courtroom at Moakley Courthouse on the harbor (Northern Ave & Courthouse Way) at noon, so Crimson Courage (the alum association trying to help Harvard stay strong) is holding a rally and press conference from 12 noon - 2:30, same building. If you're not nearby, maybe help on social media.
I really appreciate those hopeful statistics but marvel they are not yet in the 30s. The other hopeful note is his physical deterioration… it’s hard to ignore even by the most ardent cult members.
There is no reason to "but" this data. Its disastrous for him, a sign of his diminishing powers. Any weakening of that understanding is doing MAGA's work for them.
This whole "it needs to be lower" sentiment in our family I am certain was originated by right wing trolls and we have stupidly and recklessly aped it.
I think for people like me, I lack a lifetime of experience interpreting polls, so I don’t necessarily understand what I am looking at. Watching how you interpret them helps me. Statistics are counterintuitive, often even if you are good at statistics.
Another thing for me is my no doubt faulty memory of past polling. Without looking it up, I recall similar polling for President Biden when he stepped down after doing a great job, or President Obama after 8 years. I also remember W being even lower. So I struggle to understand why Trump’s numbers *seem* so similar. Maybe they aren’t.
And finally, I know I at least am guilty of some projection. I follow politics closely and am careful to vet my sources, and I know I incorrectly assume everyone else does too. After hearing about the ICE kidnappings for weeks on end, I was astonished two weeks ago when a friend said it was “only illegals” and denied that they beat up the father of three Marines only 20 miles from his home.
So I try to pay closer attention to how *you* describe the polls than to the numbers themselves. It has become clear that I simply don’t have the skill (yet) to interpret them well.
Right wing interference no doubt plays a part, too. They are such liars when it comes to polls.
Trump’s decline has been incredible rapid, deep and comprehensive. I am still shocked by it. But it’s real and it’s a serious problem for them. We are here every day pulling the curtain back from the Wizard, reminding the American people the burnt orange clown is not wearing any clothes. It’s a process and theu can lie and spin all they want but they all thought the world and the American people see his “STRENGHT” and bend the knee. It’s not happening.
it's a real shame the MSM who rode joe out of the WH with millions of stories about his age (and then the debate) turn a blind eye to the sleeping, lying, bumbling, doddering, incompetent fool. he gets a pass while the best president of our lifetimes was hounded. if the MSM would shine a spotlight on donny 2 dolls, his polls would have collapsed by now!!! corporate oligarchy!
Carrot and stick phenomenon. You've hit on the carrot. I'm convinced that the stick is the 'fear factor', which doesn't exist in a normal presidency.
Its great that it's "shockingly low" through your exceedingly experienced lens, Simon. That's fantastic to read. I mean it.
But, from February to November in 1973, Nixon went from 68% to 26% in ten months. Trump gotta long way to go to break that record, but I'm still rooting for him. I still believe he can make it, but I wouldn't put any money on it, lol.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/09/25/how-the-watergate-crisis-eroded-public-support-for-richard-nixon/
The Nixon numbers are not apples to apples. We live in a very different time, and getting Trump to 40% - which I always assumed was his floor - is an incredible collective achievement by all of us. Again him being at 40% means 60% of the country is not with him - that's enough for now.
Of course, 3 networks and Walter Cronkite.
If it gets into the thirties in the coming months, Im going to remind you about July 20, 2025. Sometimes optimists can be annoying. ; ) mb
I was serving in the Navy when Nixon, in 1972, won 49 out of 50 states.
His betrayal of his oath -- compared to Trump was trivial. But, what he could NOT count on then were members of the party of Lincoln who would also betray their oaths to protect him. That is what it would have taken.
When they went to him and urged him to resign, the WORLD looked on with admiration how our system could oust such a leader -- who won such an overwhelming majority.
Back then, we could take pride and point to a system that WORKED.
Today, our system is severely broken. Unlike any other time since the founding .. only We the People can restore it.
One of the reasons I’ve stuck with Hopium after cutting the cord to so many other groups and leaders is that Simon understands how damaging and counterproductive so much of our own discourse is. And right now, IMO, the ONLY thing that matters is continuing to push for the release of all Epstein materials. This is a rare instance where political expediency and a clear cut moral imperative are directly aligned and the opposition is one of the worst human beings on the planet.
💯 Travis. Need to keep fighting. Narrative about our weakness could have been written by Trump and Putin and it is not true.
Agreed! I noticed the incredibly negative comments on Bluesky under Simon’s post about his Ken Martin interview. I suspect those people haven’t even watched that interview and know nothing about Martin or the DNC. They are part of some army of trolls.
Yes. I have been posting positive things on Ken Martin’s FB and IG posts. He gets a lot of flak. I can’t imagine those people actually know much about him.
Agree!
I particularly liked the sequence where Ken said that "within the larger Pro-Democracy movement, the Democratic party's job is to win elections." That is straight to the point, and reminds me why as a "not so party guy," I still give to the DNC with enthusiasm and will again today.
YES! I loved that.
Agreed, Simon, Dems & pro-democracy movement much farther along than #worthlessScribblers of Corporate media (nod to @JeffTiedrich for that terminology). Don’t do #MAGATTES work for them! If we keep working hard #MangoMussolini will be in the 30s soon enough
Right on, Simon. Does Agent Orange's approval rating have to reach zero before people are satisfied? Last I checked, winning an election took 50% +1 vote. Despite headwinds -- and they are significant ones -- we are still a democracy.
Was wondering the same thing. Isn't 40% low enuf to lose in the midterms? It shows how fragile his coalition was. It seemed to be held together by collective animus which is not a solid foundation.
We have two main political parties, so it's not ever going to be likely that one of the two will fall much below the 40s.
While Trump is at his weakest, we need to convince House Republicans that they can declare themselves independent, caucusing with Democrats and extend their careers.
If they stick with Trump, riding his lead coattails into oblivion, their legacy will be that of complicit tools in the dismantling of democracy.
The alternative to that is to #FlipTheHouseAndBeAHero. Simon, please ask Ken Martin to consider telling potential defectors that they will not face any DNC opposition in 2026 if they remain independents. Obviously they can’t be primaried by Republicans.
So that simple act by the DNC can give them career security. They might even find themselves leaders of GOP 2.0 after the complete implosion of this version of the party.
Part of Project Carrot is to urge them to rebrand themselves as the #ConstitutionalConservativeCaucus. This is a very precise way to differentiate themselves from the outgoing regime.
The third part of my #ProjectCarrot concept will be a tougher ask: have new speaker Jeffries award the first six to flip with a committee chair. Not only will this give them power in the short term, but it will set them up for being bipartisan actors actually making a difference.
Giving something valuable away in this context is what you have to do to make deals quickly. You sweeten the pot, and present a reality superior to the path we are currently on. And what CCC member wouldn’t want to be a hero for the history books?
This is the front end of Project Carrot. I’ll post the next steps on my feed shortly. But frankly, I’m not trying to make a big splash with this because I’d like Democrats to have these three enticements available to them without a wall of pushback.
Again, Simon, please talk to Ken about this. If just that one factor is agreed to, activists can dangle that particular carrot before the eyes of potential CCC members.
Imagine Indivisible being a positive influencer, changing the playing field. I can, and that’s what helps me sleep at night.
I have a question for you: Today - is an elected official who supports MAGA a "traitor" to the Constitution? (ie: unfaithful to their oath)
Today ... after all we have seen. I'm not sure if I should expect a straight answer or a dance, but I'm looking forward to your response, either way.
Strictly speaking, every MAGA in Congress has violated their oath of office. But the repercussions for that aren’t terribly punitive.
Since before Biden, there have always been politicians involved in seditious conspiracy. That number has grown dramatically since November. In the right hands, that could have a lot more bite.
I think one tactic that Democrats should use right now is to compile a list of violations and violators of the Constitution that could be in the crosshairs of investigations if the House were to flip this summer.
So many of the unqualified, unethical picks that Trump has confirmed through the Senate feel that they are truly untouchable. I call that #OrangePrivilege.
If #ProjectCarrot does flip the House this summer, part of the fun will be to see how that arrogance sees their careers ripped to shreds.
"every MAGA in Congress has violated their oath of office"
Thank you. That is a VERY good place to pound a stake into the ground.
"compile a list of violations and violators" I totally agree. What I strongly endorse doing is to penalize those removed under violating their oath of office by denying them pensions and perks from their former unfaithful service. We the People can do this.
The "carrot" reminds me of this scenario: "Dear, Benedict Arnold. We know you've been a bad boy, but we'll be willing to overlook all that...if you...."
I get weary thinking of yet more investigations.. they didn't convince enuf Americans to vote against Trump in the last election. What makes you think they'd be effective next time around?
Hey Todd, the only thing that will change the GOP is if they decide that sticking with Trump will threaten their seat, and they are willing to put up with the death threats (unlike Murkowski) because they want a life in congress after the lame duck stinky old man with rotting feet leaves the stage.
"We" , the pro-democracy crowd might be able to help peel off some doubtfuls at the margins, but Epstein, Murdoch and (perhaps) Musk will be doing the heavy lifting for us in fracturing MAGA hopefully to splinters or even smithereens.
I wonder if Junior will try to compete against Vance for the crown. You don't hear much from that coke head lately. Maybe Tucker will take a shot at it.
But I digress, I'm going to call my AG and remind him that ICE is still running around wearing masks and no nametags in unmarked vans and without warrants.
I agree, Michael. And, I don't think the younger Trump wannabes (including Vance and Yucker) have the necessary 'charisma' to continue to lead MAGA to the promised land.
They don't. Herding republicans is like herding three fractious breeds of cat.
Jr. VD the VP doesn't have the juice to get it done nor does he possess stones in sufficient number to force the issue.
In my opinion he is a candy-ass candle in the wind.
Tucker is a christian nationalist punk who has an aching need to punish others but doesn't want to dirty his widdle hams. What a weak-kneed hussy that Tucker is.
Well someone over there is going to have to try, Could be amusing.
You have some very interesting ideas for breaking the DJT stranglehold on Republican legislators. If there are strategies to help them stand up and stop compromising their beliefs and feelings, give them a whirl.
Thank you! My hope is that with the #ProjectCarrot approach, there is something that reaches to the heart of House Republicans, something that reminds them of their early idealism.
We don’t have to agree on their philosophical agendas, only that inner yearning to do what’s right. And they can see already that what’s right has zero in common with what Trump and his #ClownCabinet are putting us through.
Now I again say to them: #FlipTheHouseNOWAndBeAHero.
Problem: on the least contentious funding bill where Congress could show some spine, they caved so what and how will things change for the other funding bills?!? Rubber stamping Baby man’s agenda seems to be the Republicans’ power, protests in the streets not withstanding😳. “Fox News” and right wing echo machine always working to undermine and ignore truth, it seems. How will this end?!?
We the People will prevail! We will meet Meet this Moment in time with the strength and passion needed to take back Congress in the midterm elections and build the best new country that we can imagine in our finest dreams.
Right on, Deborah. We are not powerless!
382380
382380
??
who knows? lots of trolls today
I was given a code to get back into Hopium, with no directions about what to do with it. I didn't think it would work in here, but I didn't know what else to do with it. And I did get in, but I might have gotten in anyway.
Just reply to the reauthentication email and the code lets you right in. Since I'd restarted my computer since I was last here, I had to do the same thing just a few short minutes ago.
I like you bc you’re calm and reasoned in your presentation. I also appreciate hope and you bring that.
This Administration doesn't seem to be responding to the polls, if anything they are speeding up their destruction of our country and our democracy. The Supreme Court is letting unconstitutional acts like the destruction of the Dept of Education happen by reversing two lower courts without an explanatory decision or a single signature. Congress continues to pass Trumps extremest agenda -goodbye most of USAID and PBS. The Trump Administration and its cast of crazy characters don't seem to be slowing down their destruction although Trump seems to be in physical decline. What is going to be left when we finally get to elections where these polls matter?
We the People will prevail. We will meet Meet this Moment in time with the strength and passion needed to take back Congress in the midterm elections and build the best new country that we can imagine in our finest dreams.
Love your spirit! Hard to maintain it all of the time with the constant barrage. Hope that you are right!
well, think of the moment as trying to do something difficult
yes, completely agree. We will build
Absolutely! Thank You.
Courage! We don't have to let Trump and his corrupteds take over our country any more than the people of Ukraine have to let Putin take over their country. There are way more of us.
Mark, this is not true. They respond to the polls every day. They lie about his standing; they lie about their bill not cutting Medicaid and the deficit; they are openly talking about extending the ACA subsidies. They respond to public opinion all the time it is just 1) they are in a delusional place about how bad it is 2) they believe that through their money and our "weakness" they can bullshit the country through it all, again. 3) they are extremists and cannot slow down this insane train they are on. That's why we have to keep working as hard as we can for we weakening them and have to keep going.
You can bet that GOP members in swing districts are paying a LOT of attention to the polls! That's where we might eventually start to see some pushback. It makes all of our calls all that much more important, because Congress does have real power, but only if we can peel away some of the GOP. We don't even need that many!
Thanks, Simon. Great post. I find your posts very helpful. Some weeks after so many bad policies and harmful actions like ICE, it is hard to see how we can change our nation’s trajectory toward all that is good. The conservative intention, supported by SCOTUS, to make the presidency all powerful is destroying us. The Republicans in Congress having given up their powers to him should just resign. Why pay their salaries? Judge Luttig’s analysis of the loss of the rule of law is superb, yet frightening. Unless we have a national strike which will hit the greedy wealthy where it matters, i don’t see a remedy. I am not counting on the midterms. So much of our country will be destroyed by then. You help me keep hope alive.
I agree that it’s hard to be optimistic. The fact that Trump has pressured Texas to redistrict suggests to me both he and Republicans in Congress are worried about the midterms. I think we will have elections but many attempts at voter suppression.
Simon also gives me Hope. And Judge Luttig’s analysis is helpful to understand the legal issues. Learning from his legal analysis gives me some Hope.
Redistricting starts in session tomorrow. I don't know what the game plan, but best of luck to those in Texas fighting the good fight. You're gonna need it.
For those in Texas and Ohio, it might be worth looking into the Hofeller Files. The deceased mapmaker behind them did work all over the country, including in Texas and Ohio. A sign of what is to come in the upcoming redistricting sessions. Look into it. I can refer a blog post on this if needed.
It could end up becoming a dummymander if Dems really show up next year.
That's what I suspect. Once the stores start to empty and prices start to rise, even the Fox viewers are going to be aware that things are not going well.
I encourage everyone to be part of the One Million Rising. This is a national effort to train and mobilize non-cooperation in our communities.
https://www.nokings.org/rise
It starts with a series of 3 trainings and local gatherings. The first training was on July 16, and you can get to it from this website. It is EXCELLENT! You can also sign up for the remaining 2 sessions, and get the recordings directly.
The first training is from a live stream, and actually starts around the 6-1/2 minute mark. The section on Authoritarianism 101 starts at the 15-minute mark and runs about 15 minutes. So important to listen to. But the entire training is such a good use of time. Please pass the word, and get involved.
When you say that the coalition that elected him is unraveling I’d like to see a poll that specifically includes that coalition. Unless I missed something, the ones you show are of the general public. I’d be more optimistic if his faithful were turning away from him.
Eve the groups that pushed him over the top were Hispanics, young people and independents. He’s struggling now with all of them.
Thank you- that is helpful.
We saw something on CNN in that last few days that had him at close to 90% approval specifically among republicans. I worry about that because I think that polling is what keeps the repubs in Congress ceding their power to him.
They also say that the enthusiasm for Democrats is 28%. Every month its the same number and approximately the same number of respondents. Makes me wonder if they are contacting the same people. I look at the fact that we have been winning elections and if Democrats, Independents and other allies vote this year in local and state elections we will continue to win - "bigly".
In our recent DTC meeting we had a huge turnout for people who want to do something. I will be writing postcards to new members, titled " Your Voice Matters" urging them to work with the DTC or on the DTC. I look at the town committees as the seed of a plant, the state is the strong stem and the national is the blossom. You have to start with a strong seed and continue to nourish the rest of the plant. Local is where it all begins.
Eve pls don’t come on spreading Republican talking points. That’s two today.
I'm not trying to spread repub talking points. I am asking questions to try to figure out what is and is not true- not so easy these days. I appreciate the info that you shared.
He has a 90% support with people who identify as Trump supporters. He won 2024 by winning over the independents who don’t identify as Trump supporters and because a lot of Biden 2020 voters sat out 2024.
It seems that the world is watching how our current government values the lives of its citizens of color: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3d135jz58zo . Some non-traditional commentators are making thoughtful observations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHXq2m5arkE and (extreme misogyny as the political template) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWReITvjJIc&list=TLPQMjAwNzIwMjWbn3HxqE0imw . So, Ms. Favors’ note about the general desire to disempower women in society may have some unfortunate currency in 2025 America.
ON REPEAT.
Where is Jill Stein?
"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
- Voltaire
Out of the likely one thousand (or more) young trafficking victims of Epstein and his collaborators, some of them may have been quite close to Dolos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTUJIYOFj4c . In fact, the Daily Beast, a newish online magazine, was early to this story (i.e. ten years ago): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xggo5DWV0DQ&list=TLPQMTcwNzIwMjWpkhJgrt0Sxw . When followers of a cult find their leader to be untruthful, things begin to break in a meaningful way (see Dr. Hassan, timestamp - 27:20): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDE5X5Sf8I4 .
Folks:
History is important. It should be cherished. This nation has a rich and complicated history.
SO, I BELIEVE HISTORY HAS ARRIVED AGAIN AS AN INFLECTION POINT FOR WHITE AMERICA. Dolos may have a unique historical antecedent that many Americans will likely not recognize (or even know about). This antecedent is one - David Curtis Stephenson originally from Texas and later Indiana. In the 1920s, he was the highly charismatic and politically powerful Grand Dragon of the Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. Stephenson became one of the key players in the Second Klan (i.e. from 1915 to approximately 1944): https://beltmag.com/grand-dragon-dc-stephenson-kkk-indiana/ .
For the day, he had his own social media channel, a newspaper, that was highly influential amongst the citizenry. In addition, Stephenson was personally able to obtain a percentage of each Klan state membership along with possible money from ancillary items such as hoods and so on. Consequently, he became one of the wealthiest individuals in the state from preying on people’s emotions (i.e. extreme hate and resentments). Supposedly, Stephenson studied Mussolini before the guy from Germany became in vogue for hating non-White, non-Protestant peoples: https://nypost.com/2023/06/10/how-one-brave-woman-took-down-a-power-hungry-ku-klux-klan-leader/ .
More importantly, David Curtis Stephenson began to believe his own hype— especially after a number of Klan-inspired political victories (e.g. “I am the Law”). It has been my humble observation that racism and misogyny are opposite sides of the same coin (WARNING - Includes description of a sexual assault): https://www.wrtv.com/longform/madge-oberholtzer-the-murder-that-brought-down-the-ku-klux-klan . In spite of an outwardly pious image, Stephenson was known in certain circles for being somewhat of a sexual predator, with parties at his Indiana mansion that would surprise the late Jeffrey Epstein.
With this profile in mind, Stephenson “kidnapped”, “raped”, and caused the death of a young woman, Madge Oberholtzer, who met him only to save her job in Indiana’s Department of Education from facing extreme cutbacks by a new state government supported by the Klan. Sadly, it took about a month for Ms. Oberholtzer to succumb to her poisoning. Her death helped to move her state and eventually her nation away from a path of hate and darkness [Petty, A.F. (2020, August 21). The Fall of the Grand Dragon. The Belt Magazine. https://beltmag.com/grand-dragon-dc-stephenson-kkk-indiana/ ]:
“The death of Madge Oberholtzer shocked Indianapolis, and disgraced Stephenson. Though Stephenson was a racist and bigot of the most unrepentant sort, he was not brought down by those qualities, or by the actions that resulted from them. These were tolerated, even encouraged by Indiana society at every level, from the small towns to the state Senate. Rather, Stephenson was only disgraced when he violated that which American racism so frequently claims to defend: the virtue of white womanhood.”
With a basis in QAnon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon) and a firm belief that Democrats are pedophiles, is MAGA functionally the Third or Fourth … [fill in the blank]? Make America Great Again would take you back to what year? What is their problem with DEI? Why are many Republicans concerned about the “Great Replacement Theory”? So, always remember that the National Socialists actually used “Jim Crow” as a type of inspiration for their evil work (Bill Moyers was a national treasure): https://billmoyers.com/story/hitler-america-nazi-race-law/ . History is often inconvenient.
CARTHAGO DELENDA EST (via nonviolence).
P.S. : DEMOCRATIC officials keep mentioning (and showing) Jan. 6 and the PARDONS relative to the current “law and order” push by Dolos and his associates. This is a simple but strong contrast. Use social media to promote testimonies by former “January 6 Commission” members and witnesses. YES, re-litigate Jan. 6 - again and again and again. Dolos needs to realize that he lives in a GLASS HOUSE. Go on Faux News Channel because it is just like an “unrepresented” Republican district - i.e. plenty of visuals devoid of facts. The VISUAL EVIDENCE IS NOW ON YOUR SIDE. GO ON ESPN (a male-leaning channel) and express concern about the viability of the pending World Cup with actors like Dolos and Miller in the mix. With measles rampant and anti-vax officials influencing policy, will tourists want to visit the USA (weak ticket sales?): https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/soccer/heres-what-fifa-president-gianni-infantino-said-about-ice-cbp-agents-at-club-world-cup/ar-AA1GwUkA ?
P.P.S.: Do the following now! FIRST, TEACH CIVICS. Second, register voters. THIRD, TEACH CIVICS. Rinse. Repeat.
P.P.P.S.: Every local office of the Democratic Party and of the elected officials (including state representatives on up) must become a site for civic teach-ins and a clearing house for needed services (with Federal departments being sabotaged). The fact is that Democrats believe in the value of government and of government service, and the other side (i.e. the MAGAts and the illiberals) simply doesn’t. This engagement process will make registering partisan voters and teaching civics much easier.
I listened to the Ken Martin interview on your podcast. It definitely is important to listen to this!