When President Volodymyr Zelenskyy kindly offered to help defend the countries of the Middle East being attacked by Iranian missiles and drones, Trump brusquely dismissed this, stating: "the US doesn’t need Ukraine’s help to shoot down Iranian drones."
Well, based on Iran’s success hitting American military bases in the region, as well as the infrastructure and assets of allied Arab countries, that is clearly not true. Trump’s words have been unveiled as being those of a fool!
I bet Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah would be absolutely delighted to receive the assistance and proven anti-drone technology of Ukraine!
No doubt to Trump’s deep embarrassment, Israel itself has expressed interest in Ukraine’s anti-drone systems. The Israeli press recently reported that Netanyahu and Zhelenskyy will be having a discussion on how to best move forward.
US military industrial complex better wise up. Nobody will want expensive, slow delivery Patriot missles when cheap, readily available Ukrainian drones do the job much better.
It pains me to have to say that as much as I want no harm to come to our troops, there's a part of me that's relieved Trump rebuffed Z on this, since there's no doubt in my mind that anything tactical or technical the Ukrainians share with us now will be forwarded by Trump, Vance, or Hegseth to Putin to use against them.
Good morning Hopium! Yesterday I went to a town hall by Rep. Sam Liccardo (northern part of Silicon Valley). He started by talking about his (necessarily bipartisan) success in bringing some housing money to the district ($2 million to Mountain View, and some others). I don’t want to minimize this, I know that the local housing people will leverage it and make it go far, but it is the slightly above median price of a single family home in our district and it really is scraps given the scale of the housing issue in the Bay Area. He emphasized kitchen table issues as the strategy for purple districts, and how he spends time introducing purple district Dems to the Silicon Valley cash register (his words). Very little is possible until we have a House majority, agreed. The first question was about stopping the ICE concentration camps (despite Simon’s objections, I’m adopting this term along with Heather Cox Richardson and Timothy Snyder). Very little in Congress right now, but giving power to local jurisdictions via zoning and land-use laws is the interim solution.
The most fireworks came from a passionate Iranian who spent a few minutes listing the evils of the Iranian regime since 1979 (conveniently forgetting our 1953 coup that installed the Shah), and urged support for the war. Sam (and the crowd) acknowledged the evils of the Iranian regime, but he made the point that regime change by air strikes has never worked, and that he objected to US boots on the ground, especially given the incompetence of our regime (he had a long list of incompetencies!). But then he said that the only way to overthrow the regime would be to support an armed insurgency on the ground, and seemed to be going in that direction. “STOP, DON’t GO THERE!” I yelled silently to myself, that has hardly ever worked if ever (Kurds, Marsh Arabs, Bay of Pigs, etc.) and if it eventually does, there are vast swaths of death and destruction (i.e. Syria). Afterwards, one of Iranians had a “Make Iran Great Again” sign with photos of Trump and Pahlavi Jr., which made me sad that anyone would trust the Trump regime……
Stu, to your reference to the US/UK-orchestrated coup against Mossadeq in 1953 I would add the horrific Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88 in which the US supported Iraq then led by Saddam Hussein. Estimates of total casulaties in that war range from 1-2 million with the numbers killed on each side of perhaps 500,000. It seems that Iran suffered more casualties than Iraq. Ironically in light of today's war Israel mostly covertly supported Iran in this war, viewing Saddam's Iraq as the greater strategic threat at that time The Iran-Iraq war stimulated Iran, which felt largely isolated, to increase or accelerate its own weapons development programs including nuclear.
Thanks for the addition, the list is so long and the circumstances so twisted (we supplied missiles to Iran via the Iran Contra pipeline), my mind is in historical (Gordian?) knots right now. So many wars and atrocities, when will we ever learn….when will we ever learn.
Follow the money is the best way to reveal the root causes of crimes or actions, and expose the motivations driving them which can be just greed or a mix of greed and a desire to maintain or gain more power. Reagan was wrong when he said the most terrifying words in the English langaue are the nine, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." Add two to make it 11 words, which are, "I'm from the US government and I'm here to arm you." Domestically and globally the consequences risk becoming the opposite of whatever noble intention is presented as their inital justification.
Hi Stu - thanks for this report. I, too, have friends who are from Iran who still have loved ones there. I think I understand the history of Iran pretty well as someone who has taught World Civilization for years. All that said, I have come to the conclusion that regime change is not something the USA should attempt - it's not a strategy that has ever been successful in the post-War era and our failed attempts have cost so many their lives. I am a pacifist, so any war America starts is anathema to me, but this one - beginning with the murder of 150 little girls and their teachers - is ridiculously egregious and wrong.
Thanks much for that, John. Apparently the GOP has made hypocrisy a leading export for all the world to see. There is no answer to the questions the Iranians ask except "we're sadists and we like to blow up things." And we can tell the world he doesn't speak for us, but until he's forced (peacefully) from office, he does.
Anyone looking for more insights into the thinking of Iran’s leadership, and that of Iranians at home or its exile community? Here is an analysis that I found really worthwhile; it is both sobering and enlightening.
Vali Nasr, professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, is considered one of the foremost experts on Shia Islam and Iran. The interview by Mishal Husain on behalf of Bloomberg.
I send this along for your humble consideration. Over the past month or so, I have been writing a series of posts on what I call "The Big Beautiful Middle Finger." In those posts, I try to give a full and comprehensive sense (in clear, understandable language) of what the Big Beautiful Bill is doing to stick it to the working person. So, here are the articles I have thus far:
1) davidsalzillo.substack.…
2) davidsalzillo.substack.…
3) davidsalzillo.substack.…
4) davidsalzillo.substack.…
Feel free to let me know what you think, any feedback you have, and please consider sharing it (even to campaigns themselves) if you find it useful. Thanks.
NC's State Board of Elections has proposed its own version of the SAVE Act (here it stands for Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements) and public comments are open until tomorrow, March 16. If you know anyone in NC, please send them this so that they can leave a public comment for the board. There are four parts to the act, and areas to comment for each part (I just copied and pasted the same comment four times; it took less than 1 minute). This will cost the state tens of millions of dollars, throw our local boards into chaos, and will result (potentially) hundreds of thousands of NC voters being disenfranchised. How many of us have a valid drivers license (many handicapped and elderly folks do not), our birth certificates, marriage licenses, naturalization papers, divorce documents, and passports?
Here are my replies. Please anyone feel free to copy them if you would like and edit as you see fit. Just a reminder that I am not a lawyer!
I object to your definition of Presumptive Nonvoter, as it requires some government record, valid or not, of "potentially not being a United States Citizen" and only a statement "which identifies a registered voter as ...", but no evidence or proof to back up that statement. You could drive a Tesla cyber truck through the loopholes in this definition to falsely accuse thousands of voters and force them to go through a lengthy process to prove their citizenship and be eligible to vote. Please tighten this definition to require clear evidence of intent to vote without citizenship by spelling out exactly what evidence will be acceptable.
I object to the procedure outlined in the Entry of Challenge as it presumes guilt and requires the voter to prove innocence. The US constitution requires that someone be assumed innocent until proven guilty. No crime has been committed requiring a government response unless and until a non-citizen casts a vote.
First, your definitions section allows a voter to be flagged on flimsy or no evidence, then requires a hearing within 15 days for all voters that have been identified. This is unconstitutionally burdensome because it violates the 24th amendment. At this point your bill re-instates Jim Crow laws that are also illegal because of the Voting Rights Act.
Clearly no advance consideration or planning has been made to determine whether the court system can handle the number of challenge hearings sure to be brought if this law is implemented. If the system is overwhelmed and a hearing cannot be held within 20 days due to lack of resources, what provision is made for the presumptive citizen to vote?
“Energy prices are high. Everything’s high,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), another Trump ally. He added that Republicans should “take some votes to lower the costs.”
They had an opportunity to pass the War Powers Resolution that would help with this.
They had an opportunity to pass a bill ending the felon's tariffs that would help with this.
They've failed at every opportunity. Their biggest failure is to their constituents and passing any kind of legislation that would benefit working people, children, students, veterans, the disabled and elderly. Two days before this war (not an excursion) gas in my area was $3.49 p/gallon. Yesterday I had a half tank of gas which cost to top off at $4.69 p/gallon. $43.00 for half a tank of gas. I'm grateful I live 4 miles from my job and don't drive much, but there are many who aren't in that position. What little money I do have I just donated to Jonathan Nez and Joanna Mendoza since I'm in AZ. I also donated to James Talarico and Mary Peltola. All through Hopium. Thank you Simon for being our guiding light and North Star through this dark period.
Is it time to name the effective leader of the US - at least in foreign affairs - as President TrumPutin - or perhaps give him the full name of TrumPutinetanyahu ?
I have been giving to the Democratic candidates who are listed in toss ups or close elections listed on Cook Political. Last cycle maxed out on several toss up candidates as well, and will probably do so this cycle. I notice that your recommended list includes a variety of candidates who are still in primaries. I have only done a couple of contributions there, because I really don’t want to fund someone who either can’t win, or who may not be the best candidate against the Republican. My question for you is how and why do you pick one candidate in a primary? I am hesitant to take your recommendations because don’t want to pick someone who might be most aligned with your views or my views, if that candidate isn’t going to the best shot to win. For example, I have given the most money so far to Perez in Washington, not because I like her views, but because she is a tough battle and we can’t lose her. Thus, could you describe how you think about this problem. Thank you.
Which candidates are in competitive primaries? Our bias here is towards open seat and challenger races - pick ups - and all twelve of our House candidates have been endorsed by the DCCC and are on their early red to blue list.
We only rally behind candidates with a high chance of winning their elections, ensuring that our money and volunteer time goes the furthest. You can find more information about our strategy in the Audacious Expansion Fund and Winning The House tabs.
The DCCC has chosen primary candidates to endorse and support. That seems to go against your stance of letting voters pick the candidate before you endorse, with which I concur. It seems like the late dates of some primaries is a problem. Candidates need support now, but I think some primaries are as late as August. So I see the logic of endorsing the best guess candidate, but I don't like it. I don't think I have as much faith in the DCCC's judgment as you do.
For example, last cycle I gave the most to Gray, Tran, Whitesides, all of whom won. And also Lurie and Kristin Engel, who lost. The key factor for me is closeness of race, not policies. In fact, I don’t really pay that much attention to policy, I just want Democrats to win close races. This time around, none of the Democrats who won are listed as toss ups. So this time, I have been giving to Perez, Landsman and Kaptur. And I will give more there. But I am wondering if I should or should not start giving to candidates who are fighting in primaries, or this ends up being counterproductive or wasteful.
I would appreciate your thoughts. I don’t really want to back someone just because they are likable. I want to put my dollars solidly behind taking the maximum seats in the house.
Ok. Just did 2k for your Win the House 12 House candidates on Act Blue. I will spend some more time looking at them and figure out who to focus on more.
There's an interview with Anderson Clayton of NC at the bottom too.
Living in MA with a relatively inactive state party, I had no idea what other state Dem parties were doing. I was so impressed with the infrastructure they're building across campaigns, that keeps building, doesn't stop when a given campaign ends, and the success they're having.
Is Trump admitting the war in Iran is out of control by urging the UK and other nations to send warships to Strait of Hormuz? Wasn't this the NATO he's rejected? This is an admission of his inability to lead. It's time to invoke the 25th Amendment
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has submitted a REQUEST to Ukraine to hold talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky. No one has answered his call . . .
really concerned about the SAVE act now that cornyn has flipped to suspend the filibuster for the bill. this will hurt repub voters too. typical satan loser strategy. who will be trained by states to certify all of these required docs?? and no mail in ballots? cal, oregon, washngton and colorado are mostly mail in ballot states! another nightmare scenario.
Well from everything I'm reading, Thune appears to be holding against eliminating the filibuster - which tells me there's still enough moderates against it so they will not Nike it at the point. That's the latest I could find anyway
I liked your new, more hopeful look at the Ukraine situation and pointing out Ukraines' new war-technology strengths. I needed some positive news on that front.
One other question. A few weeks ago, Elliott Morris had an analysis that showed the photo ID requirements would eliminate more Republicans than Democrats. In essence, who has passports? Democrats have more passports. I guess the argument is this correlates with higher education, affluence etc.
This seems simplistic and I can’t believe that the Republicans would be pushing so hard if this were true. Obviously their view is the Save America bullshit would suppress votes of minorities, which is their main goal. What is your view? Do you have a clear opinion that even if this hateful bill were to pass, it would hurt Democrats?
That may well be right. My guess is women would be better at navigating the process than men would, but that’s just base on my sense of who has their shit together more. Also I agree with Jenny Ellsworth that this would be a huge motivator for the Democratic base and would cause a big backlash.
It’s really amazing how determined the Republicans are to prove that they are the party that hates America, hates democracy, wants to cheat, and wants to orders from a criminal. Why there aren’t more Republicans who will take a principled stand and say enough is enough, like Tom Tillis, Rand Paul and Thomas Massie, it’s amazing.
It would hurt Democrats because it would hurt democracy. You know who it wouldn’t disenfranchise? Wealthy White non-disabled men. Republicans would be happy to throw everything into utter chaos and disenfranchise everyone else, even their base, if it gives the Epstein Class more power.
It is entirely possible that it would do more harm to Republicans in November. It wouldn’t be the first time they tried something that backfired on them. But I think it would be from the outrage and pushback. It would be very ugly, expensive, and dangerous.
I'm not sure Rs are acting based on facts and evidence as much pleasing Trump, even when he's not based in reality and is operating against their interests. So many cases in point: Iran, tariffs, more tariffs, less healthcare, cutting wind farms and chips factories from the mostly red states they were in... They capitulate. Even wearing shoes that don't fit. 🤯 I'm trying to think of a situation where they chose evidence and reality over Trump; don't have one. Do you?
I trust Elliot Morris' data and insights. And I trust Erica Chenoweth pointing out that stealing an election tends to be one of the triggers that wakes up the masses.
Of course, it's a terrible bill and I hope it dies an ugly death. I read somewhere that there would be a couple weeks of debate on it - maybe threatening to steal an election would trigger people into opposition (take advantage of No Kings 3 timing and make it even bigger); maybe it would shame them. If it is to be aired, let it be ugly.
If you have time, look up other articles and images. They all look pathetic wearing the same shoes. Can no one ever tell him no? I think Trump gets off on saying "jump" and they, while jumping, ask "how high?" Marco Rubio is the worst. He looks miserable.
Keep dreaming, Trump!! If they are smart the other countries will not be helping you!!!
Help to fund our public media!! More important than ever!
"Well, here's another fine mess you've gotten [us] into!"
Flip the Senate by voting for these Democrats: AK: Mary Paltola, NC: Cooper, TX: Talarico, GA: Ossoff.
We would need at least 1 more - Maine? Iowa?
Sherrod Brown, Ohio.
Must have been a gremlin in my brain - of course, Sherrod Brown.
We keep Ossoff and remain 47-53. So we need 4 to flip.
Most likely: Cooper in NC. 48-52.
Next: Maine even though we don’t yet have a candidate and OH. Gets us to 50-50 but Vance casts the deciding vote.
Next??? Alaska? Iowa? Texas (the stuff of Dem dreams but would be improved if Paxton is their guy)
When President Volodymyr Zelenskyy kindly offered to help defend the countries of the Middle East being attacked by Iranian missiles and drones, Trump brusquely dismissed this, stating: "the US doesn’t need Ukraine’s help to shoot down Iranian drones."
Well, based on Iran’s success hitting American military bases in the region, as well as the infrastructure and assets of allied Arab countries, that is clearly not true. Trump’s words have been unveiled as being those of a fool!
I bet Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah would be absolutely delighted to receive the assistance and proven anti-drone technology of Ukraine!
No doubt to Trump’s deep embarrassment, Israel itself has expressed interest in Ukraine’s anti-drone systems. The Israeli press recently reported that Netanyahu and Zhelenskyy will be having a discussion on how to best move forward.
US military industrial complex better wise up. Nobody will want expensive, slow delivery Patriot missles when cheap, readily available Ukrainian drones do the job much better.
There are jobs for Patriot missiles. Stopping drones just isn't one of those jobs.
It pains me to have to say that as much as I want no harm to come to our troops, there's a part of me that's relieved Trump rebuffed Z on this, since there's no doubt in my mind that anything tactical or technical the Ukrainians share with us now will be forwarded by Trump, Vance, or Hegseth to Putin to use against them.
Good morning Hopium! Yesterday I went to a town hall by Rep. Sam Liccardo (northern part of Silicon Valley). He started by talking about his (necessarily bipartisan) success in bringing some housing money to the district ($2 million to Mountain View, and some others). I don’t want to minimize this, I know that the local housing people will leverage it and make it go far, but it is the slightly above median price of a single family home in our district and it really is scraps given the scale of the housing issue in the Bay Area. He emphasized kitchen table issues as the strategy for purple districts, and how he spends time introducing purple district Dems to the Silicon Valley cash register (his words). Very little is possible until we have a House majority, agreed. The first question was about stopping the ICE concentration camps (despite Simon’s objections, I’m adopting this term along with Heather Cox Richardson and Timothy Snyder). Very little in Congress right now, but giving power to local jurisdictions via zoning and land-use laws is the interim solution.
The most fireworks came from a passionate Iranian who spent a few minutes listing the evils of the Iranian regime since 1979 (conveniently forgetting our 1953 coup that installed the Shah), and urged support for the war. Sam (and the crowd) acknowledged the evils of the Iranian regime, but he made the point that regime change by air strikes has never worked, and that he objected to US boots on the ground, especially given the incompetence of our regime (he had a long list of incompetencies!). But then he said that the only way to overthrow the regime would be to support an armed insurgency on the ground, and seemed to be going in that direction. “STOP, DON’t GO THERE!” I yelled silently to myself, that has hardly ever worked if ever (Kurds, Marsh Arabs, Bay of Pigs, etc.) and if it eventually does, there are vast swaths of death and destruction (i.e. Syria). Afterwards, one of Iranians had a “Make Iran Great Again” sign with photos of Trump and Pahlavi Jr., which made me sad that anyone would trust the Trump regime……
Stu, to your reference to the US/UK-orchestrated coup against Mossadeq in 1953 I would add the horrific Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88 in which the US supported Iraq then led by Saddam Hussein. Estimates of total casulaties in that war range from 1-2 million with the numbers killed on each side of perhaps 500,000. It seems that Iran suffered more casualties than Iraq. Ironically in light of today's war Israel mostly covertly supported Iran in this war, viewing Saddam's Iraq as the greater strategic threat at that time The Iran-Iraq war stimulated Iran, which felt largely isolated, to increase or accelerate its own weapons development programs including nuclear.
Thanks for the addition, the list is so long and the circumstances so twisted (we supplied missiles to Iran via the Iran Contra pipeline), my mind is in historical (Gordian?) knots right now. So many wars and atrocities, when will we ever learn….when will we ever learn.
Follow the money is the best way to reveal the root causes of crimes or actions, and expose the motivations driving them which can be just greed or a mix of greed and a desire to maintain or gain more power. Reagan was wrong when he said the most terrifying words in the English langaue are the nine, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." Add two to make it 11 words, which are, "I'm from the US government and I'm here to arm you." Domestically and globally the consequences risk becoming the opposite of whatever noble intention is presented as their inital justification.
Hi Stu - thanks for this report. I, too, have friends who are from Iran who still have loved ones there. I think I understand the history of Iran pretty well as someone who has taught World Civilization for years. All that said, I have come to the conclusion that regime change is not something the USA should attempt - it's not a strategy that has ever been successful in the post-War era and our failed attempts have cost so many their lives. I am a pacifist, so any war America starts is anathema to me, but this one - beginning with the murder of 150 little girls and their teachers - is ridiculously egregious and wrong.
Thanks for that report. This article, suggesting that support for the war among protesters in Iran may be waning, was interesting. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/14/anti-regime-iranians-turn-on-trump-us
Thanks much for that, John. Apparently the GOP has made hypocrisy a leading export for all the world to see. There is no answer to the questions the Iranians ask except "we're sadists and we like to blow up things." And we can tell the world he doesn't speak for us, but until he's forced (peacefully) from office, he does.
Anyone looking for more insights into the thinking of Iran’s leadership, and that of Iranians at home or its exile community? Here is an analysis that I found really worthwhile; it is both sobering and enlightening.
Vali Nasr, professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, is considered one of the foremost experts on Shia Islam and Iran. The interview by Mishal Husain on behalf of Bloomberg.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0Um9KyI5mc
Hello everyone,
I send this along for your humble consideration. Over the past month or so, I have been writing a series of posts on what I call "The Big Beautiful Middle Finger." In those posts, I try to give a full and comprehensive sense (in clear, understandable language) of what the Big Beautiful Bill is doing to stick it to the working person. So, here are the articles I have thus far:
1) davidsalzillo.substack.…
2) davidsalzillo.substack.…
3) davidsalzillo.substack.…
4) davidsalzillo.substack.…
Feel free to let me know what you think, any feedback you have, and please consider sharing it (even to campaigns themselves) if you find it useful. Thanks.
NC's State Board of Elections has proposed its own version of the SAVE Act (here it stands for Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements) and public comments are open until tomorrow, March 16. If you know anyone in NC, please send them this so that they can leave a public comment for the board. There are four parts to the act, and areas to comment for each part (I just copied and pasted the same comment four times; it took less than 1 minute). This will cost the state tens of millions of dollars, throw our local boards into chaos, and will result (potentially) hundreds of thousands of NC voters being disenfranchised. How many of us have a valid drivers license (many handicapped and elderly folks do not), our birth certificates, marriage licenses, naturalization papers, divorce documents, and passports?
To make a comment:
demnc.co/comment
And a quick video explaining all of this:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DV1jBEQgm2S?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Done! Thanks Elizabeth.
Here are my replies. Please anyone feel free to copy them if you would like and edit as you see fit. Just a reminder that I am not a lawyer!
I object to your definition of Presumptive Nonvoter, as it requires some government record, valid or not, of "potentially not being a United States Citizen" and only a statement "which identifies a registered voter as ...", but no evidence or proof to back up that statement. You could drive a Tesla cyber truck through the loopholes in this definition to falsely accuse thousands of voters and force them to go through a lengthy process to prove their citizenship and be eligible to vote. Please tighten this definition to require clear evidence of intent to vote without citizenship by spelling out exactly what evidence will be acceptable.
I object to the procedure outlined in the Entry of Challenge as it presumes guilt and requires the voter to prove innocence. The US constitution requires that someone be assumed innocent until proven guilty. No crime has been committed requiring a government response unless and until a non-citizen casts a vote.
First, your definitions section allows a voter to be flagged on flimsy or no evidence, then requires a hearing within 15 days for all voters that have been identified. This is unconstitutionally burdensome because it violates the 24th amendment. At this point your bill re-instates Jim Crow laws that are also illegal because of the Voting Rights Act.
Clearly no advance consideration or planning has been made to determine whether the court system can handle the number of challenge hearings sure to be brought if this law is implemented. If the system is overwhelmed and a hearing cannot be held within 20 days due to lack of resources, what provision is made for the presumptive citizen to vote?
“Energy prices are high. Everything’s high,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), another Trump ally. He added that Republicans should “take some votes to lower the costs.”
They had an opportunity to pass the War Powers Resolution that would help with this.
They had an opportunity to pass a bill ending the felon's tariffs that would help with this.
They failed to pass them.
Republicans are high on their own supply…..
“Taking votes to lower costs” might just be theater. What matters is actually enacting laws that level the playing field.
They've failed at every opportunity. Their biggest failure is to their constituents and passing any kind of legislation that would benefit working people, children, students, veterans, the disabled and elderly. Two days before this war (not an excursion) gas in my area was $3.49 p/gallon. Yesterday I had a half tank of gas which cost to top off at $4.69 p/gallon. $43.00 for half a tank of gas. I'm grateful I live 4 miles from my job and don't drive much, but there are many who aren't in that position. What little money I do have I just donated to Jonathan Nez and Joanna Mendoza since I'm in AZ. I also donated to James Talarico and Mary Peltola. All through Hopium. Thank you Simon for being our guiding light and North Star through this dark period.
Is it time to name the effective leader of the US - at least in foreign affairs - as President TrumPutin - or perhaps give him the full name of TrumPutinetanyahu ?
Hello Simon,
I have been giving to the Democratic candidates who are listed in toss ups or close elections listed on Cook Political. Last cycle maxed out on several toss up candidates as well, and will probably do so this cycle. I notice that your recommended list includes a variety of candidates who are still in primaries. I have only done a couple of contributions there, because I really don’t want to fund someone who either can’t win, or who may not be the best candidate against the Republican. My question for you is how and why do you pick one candidate in a primary? I am hesitant to take your recommendations because don’t want to pick someone who might be most aligned with your views or my views, if that candidate isn’t going to the best shot to win. For example, I have given the most money so far to Perez in Washington, not because I like her views, but because she is a tough battle and we can’t lose her. Thus, could you describe how you think about this problem. Thank you.
Which candidates are in competitive primaries? Our bias here is towards open seat and challenger races - pick ups - and all twelve of our House candidates have been endorsed by the DCCC and are on their early red to blue list.
We only rally behind candidates with a high chance of winning their elections, ensuring that our money and volunteer time goes the furthest. You can find more information about our strategy in the Audacious Expansion Fund and Winning The House tabs.
The DCCC has chosen primary candidates to endorse and support. That seems to go against your stance of letting voters pick the candidate before you endorse, with which I concur. It seems like the late dates of some primaries is a problem. Candidates need support now, but I think some primaries are as late as August. So I see the logic of endorsing the best guess candidate, but I don't like it. I don't think I have as much faith in the DCCC's judgment as you do.
Who of the twelve have a competitive primary?
For example, last cycle I gave the most to Gray, Tran, Whitesides, all of whom won. And also Lurie and Kristin Engel, who lost. The key factor for me is closeness of race, not policies. In fact, I don’t really pay that much attention to policy, I just want Democrats to win close races. This time around, none of the Democrats who won are listed as toss ups. So this time, I have been giving to Perez, Landsman and Kaptur. And I will give more there. But I am wondering if I should or should not start giving to candidates who are fighting in primaries, or this ends up being counterproductive or wasteful.
I would appreciate your thoughts. I don’t really want to back someone just because they are likable. I want to put my dollars solidly behind taking the maximum seats in the house.
Again, please review the two tabs above. They provide background on our strategy and a recap of what we did in the 2024 cycle.
Ok. Just did 2k for your Win the House 12 House candidates on Act Blue. I will spend some more time looking at them and figure out who to focus on more.
Thank you.
Thank you!
Can I recommend listening to Simon's interviews with the party chairs in the Audacious Expansion Fund? You can find them all on this page: https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/hopiums-audacious-expansion-fund
There's an interview with Anderson Clayton of NC at the bottom too.
Living in MA with a relatively inactive state party, I had no idea what other state Dem parties were doing. I was so impressed with the infrastructure they're building across campaigns, that keeps building, doesn't stop when a given campaign ends, and the success they're having.
Is Trump admitting the war in Iran is out of control by urging the UK and other nations to send warships to Strait of Hormuz? Wasn't this the NATO he's rejected? This is an admission of his inability to lead. It's time to invoke the 25th Amendment
And Zelenskyy talking to Israel!? Astonishing!
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has submitted a REQUEST to Ukraine to hold talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky. No one has answered his call . . .
really concerned about the SAVE act now that cornyn has flipped to suspend the filibuster for the bill. this will hurt repub voters too. typical satan loser strategy. who will be trained by states to certify all of these required docs?? and no mail in ballots? cal, oregon, washngton and colorado are mostly mail in ballot states! another nightmare scenario.
Well from everything I'm reading, Thune appears to be holding against eliminating the filibuster - which tells me there's still enough moderates against it so they will not Nike it at the point. That's the latest I could find anyway
I liked your new, more hopeful look at the Ukraine situation and pointing out Ukraines' new war-technology strengths. I needed some positive news on that front.
One other question. A few weeks ago, Elliott Morris had an analysis that showed the photo ID requirements would eliminate more Republicans than Democrats. In essence, who has passports? Democrats have more passports. I guess the argument is this correlates with higher education, affluence etc.
This seems simplistic and I can’t believe that the Republicans would be pushing so hard if this were true. Obviously their view is the Save America bullshit would suppress votes of minorities, which is their main goal. What is your view? Do you have a clear opinion that even if this hateful bill were to pass, it would hurt Democrats?
My guess is Republicans are most interested in suppressing women's votes, since more men consistently vote R.
That may well be right. My guess is women would be better at navigating the process than men would, but that’s just base on my sense of who has their shit together more. Also I agree with Jenny Ellsworth that this would be a huge motivator for the Democratic base and would cause a big backlash.
It’s really amazing how determined the Republicans are to prove that they are the party that hates America, hates democracy, wants to cheat, and wants to orders from a criminal. Why there aren’t more Republicans who will take a principled stand and say enough is enough, like Tom Tillis, Rand Paul and Thomas Massie, it’s amazing.
It would hurt Democrats because it would hurt democracy. You know who it wouldn’t disenfranchise? Wealthy White non-disabled men. Republicans would be happy to throw everything into utter chaos and disenfranchise everyone else, even their base, if it gives the Epstein Class more power.
It is entirely possible that it would do more harm to Republicans in November. It wouldn’t be the first time they tried something that backfired on them. But I think it would be from the outrage and pushback. It would be very ugly, expensive, and dangerous.
Even if they don't pass SAVE, there is IMO credible evidence that they have other tampering methods. Evidence from This Will Hold points to shenanigans in 2024 https://thiswillhold.substack.com/p/she-won-florida-used-a-fake-county?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=197kn
I'm not sure Rs are acting based on facts and evidence as much pleasing Trump, even when he's not based in reality and is operating against their interests. So many cases in point: Iran, tariffs, more tariffs, less healthcare, cutting wind farms and chips factories from the mostly red states they were in... They capitulate. Even wearing shoes that don't fit. 🤯 I'm trying to think of a situation where they chose evidence and reality over Trump; don't have one. Do you?
I trust Elliot Morris' data and insights. And I trust Erica Chenoweth pointing out that stealing an election tends to be one of the triggers that wakes up the masses.
Of course, it's a terrible bill and I hope it dies an ugly death. I read somewhere that there would be a couple weeks of debate on it - maybe threatening to steal an election would trigger people into opposition (take advantage of No Kings 3 timing and make it even bigger); maybe it would shame them. If it is to be aired, let it be ugly.
I guess I missed wearing shoes that don’t fit. What is that all about?
Oh you HAVE to look it up. You can't make this stuff up.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/little-marco-mocked-for-wearing-clown-shoes-in-trump-suck-up/
Wow, I am speechless. That isn’t as extreme a form of submission as getting hideous facial surgery, or lying to the public, but it is way past sanity.
If you have time, look up other articles and images. They all look pathetic wearing the same shoes. Can no one ever tell him no? I think Trump gets off on saying "jump" and they, while jumping, ask "how high?" Marco Rubio is the worst. He looks miserable.