And this from NYT columnist Bret Stephens, whose writings I don't usually read since he's normally a Trump apologist. But the "Bone Spur" headline in the print version caught my attention, and I'm glad I kept reading his excoriation of Trump over Iran.
Great headline - couldn't get past the first few. paragraphs. Can't stomach Bret Stephen's take - he always seems to give Trump undue credit. But thanks for the link! As I said, great headline!
The Babyman has had his toys taken away & is letting the adults run things but also making sure the other kids in the sandbox get less, thereby screwing himself. As Jerry would say on Seinfeld: “That’s a shame.”
Looking forward to tonight’s call & to more footage from the opening of the Obama Ctr today. Be sure to watch remarks from BHO & Michelle from yesterday-😍😍😍. What an asset to the South Side the center will be. Just tremendous. (The opening is tomorrow, 6/18, but there is plenty of content already!)
I'll miss you guys tonight but will catch you tomorrow morning. Thanks Simon, for all you are doing. I'm getting people to sign up and pay for Hopium. I think it's working.
Ive moved and my new congressman is Rich Neal. Does anyone live in Berkshire county Mass and have a feel for what he's been up to all these years? Rumor is, he doesn't do much.... I"m already emailing and calling his office.
He’s low key but awesome- did great work in last 🍊admin. Maddow used to have him on all the time. Not sure what he’s been up to since…Also I’m very jealous, went to college in the Pioneer Valley. 😍
Thank you Lisa! I just moved AWAY from the Pioneer valley over to the Berkshires (I lived there for 20 years before we went adventuring in Colorado; all my peeps are here). And thanks for the vote of confidence for Neal. I will put on my good attitude until I experience him myself.
AHHH Got it. You miss Massachusetts. It is very beautiful right now. I must admit. Kinda seductive. But NJ has tomatoes and corn and beaches and pine barrens. I grew up in Philly. .... I loved the NJ shore.
Ben Meisalis is a relentless podcaster (4+ times/day). This morning he was pointing to the situation room meeting w/o Trump regarding Epstein coverup (per Haberman and Snow), the G7 and his deteriorating physical condition, and whats leaking out about the Iran deal...
These are all big storylines too, that point to the collapsing administration.
Add that to Simon's reporting on his battle with the Senate, and it may be time to start stocking up on the popcorn. 🍿🍿🍿
The Democratic senator out of CT mentioned that the ODNI candidate was pulled because he would not go after Trump enemies, using classified information.
It's also just not in touch with the modern reality of our politics and the power of their propaganda regime. I showed data yesterday that puts us on track to having a blowout mid-term. Trump is far below where he was at this point in his first term, and is now seeing far more 20s and 30s and than 30s and 40s in the polling. Here is lower today than I thought he would ever be this cycle but we just need to keep working it peeps.
Simon, It never, ever pays to underestimate Trump. How many times do we have to learn that? Truman's lowest approval as 22%, Nixon 24, Carter 28, Reagan 35, Bush 1, 29, Clinton 37, Bush 2, 25, Trump 1, 34. ( https://www.davemanuel.com/us-presidential-approval-ratings-history.php) Despite EVERYTHING Trump still polls in the mid-30's, low but a LOT higher than it should be.
Quite seriously, I remember in 1988 and the "data" that literally caused someone in our office on M Street to start looking for drapes for Kitty's White House redecoration. Frankly, try talking to some non-Democrats or even Trumpists. I hope our job is to see into the future not to purvey "data" that exists only to boost our collective self-esteem.
Howard, OK, spend your time here building him up, making him strong and pretending like all these signs of decay, rot and decline are not there for all of us to see.
We live in a very different media environment than what came before. Those lower poll numbers from previous Presidents are irrelevant to the current moment. We will probably never be able to get him under 35 for a sustained period of time. Our goal is to focus on the other 65 percent. The comparisons to previous Presidents is a red herring, and used to make it look like Dems are failing when we are succeeding.
How I would summarize the argument - we’re working, he’s clearly getting weaker politically (from mid 40s to low 30s), and there’s more work to do. Overall generally positive.
That his approval is higher than we’d all like it to be is a sign of their information prowess and that we’ve more work to do.
And I don’t think anybody here is underestimating him, hence the daily exhortations to action.
@Simon, we have identified the theme and activity for the Hopium post election wrap-up after the inauguration of a new Democratic president in 2029! Just consult with Carla! 😁😁😁
He definitely should be the overlord of the outer rim territories where republic credits are no good, and gambling is the only way to negotiate, rather than being the chancellor of the Galactic Republic… Well played, you win! 🤣🤣🤣
Ossof's ad was pretty good- thanks for sharing- the question is, will the people who need to see it, see it (is it showing on Fox?) and if they do see it, are they so far gone that it won't sway them from the cult?
Depends on who you think needs to see it. I think the most important audience is low-propensity Democratic voters and undecided independents - people who need motivations to vote and clarity on what their vote will mean.
I have long-since given up on any such message reaching the Fox news crowd. They will not hear it. They aren’t ready to hear it. I am more concerned with fighting apathy, though I have to admit Georgia voters generally rise to the occasion. (I give Stacey Abrams a lot of respect for her role in making sure of it.)
that makes sense- but if low propensity voters need motivation to vote, maybe there needs to be a tagline with ads like this, something like: the most important thing you can do for yourself and your community is to vote in November. If you doubt that voting matters, answer this question, if your vote wasn't important, why would they be trying to take it away from you? I don't know the right words, but my point is, if they are democrats and undecided independents, they already know that the guy is not looking out for their interests, they need to be convinced that voting matters, and that needs to be a part of the message
I only recently found this substack and became a member- certainly I'm learning more as I go along- I'm learning about my own new IRL community by volunteering for Ground Truth- canvassing in OR 05 - to find out what people are thinking here. It's a start- I just retired and moved here- so hopefully I'll do more as I learn more. I wasn't being critical of anyone on this site with my comment. Simply stating my impressions.
I apologize my comment was so terse and welcome!! in general here you will find Simon has covered many questions a person asks in his daily newsletters; I expect you will enjoy reading back over previous newsletters, he writes new material for us every day.
In the comments here we focus on reporting what we each are doing and updating on such and exchanging information- hope with a plan, ... making it happen.
Again, I apologize for my terseness, very busy day here as I'm sure we all have!! and welcome
Good message, Kim. Reminds me of an anti-drug ad campaign that ran in the late 60's-early 70's: why do you think they call it dope? Which I assume was pretty successful given how many years it ran. What I think campaigns may well need even more than better messaging is the online equivalent of a ground game, well-organized online communities that deliver on what real influencers (not online celebrities, but the "ordinary" folks in the millions who are disproportionately likely to tell people online about things they've found or learned online) are looking for in what they put their passions behind--access, impact, recognition, and innovation. The Republicans will never deliver on these values--they're too hierarchical--only Democrats are really steeped in the kind of grassroots mentality that would/could allow us to, as Simon often says, "treat our supporters like partners, not ATM machines."
So much money is being spent in politics on TV ads that nobody watches and that persuade nobody. In 2024, *only one* ad out of hundreds in the presidential campaign is even *alleged* to have moved the needle at all, and I think there are a lot of reasons to question whether even that's actually true, and not just hype by corporate media and consultants that collectively rake in billions creating and distributing them. To me it's just real common sense: are you more likely to vote (and vote for a particular candidate) if a TV ad tells you to, or a friend, colleague, or family member does?
Yesterday was another Board of Supervisor Meeting day. Our little district 3 MAGAt, having won his reelection, was AWOL for the second week in a row. The MAGAt chair of the Board managed to screw up the Order of Operations on the agenda resulting in ten minutes of confusion over just which items had been approved, when, and by whom.
He subsequently exhibited ignorance over what it meant to talk about rates of change in the consumer price index which in turn would affect certain lot leasing fees. I was so irritated that this retired math prof made a Public Comment to the effect that supervisors should understand relevant arithmetic well enough to explain it to their constituents BEFORE Board Meetings.
I am doing a final rewrite of a piece about public attendance at supervisors’ Board Meetings that will be published in our online Engage Tuolumne this Friday.
And I had an amazing time at Sierra PRIDE. I am feeling out how to be an ally, an advocate, and a liaison with our liberal church now that our PRIDEful Deacon has retired.
Just voted in the Early Voting Run Off Day. More people than I thought would be there, but, of course, not as many as two weeks ago. The enthusiasm is there though in this blood red 1st Congressional District of SC (Nancy Mace) when I went to the local town Democratic Party meeting Monday. Full room of upset and angry people who are fed up with being overlooked by our local, state, and federal officials. Never seen them so animated.
Writing Post Cards to Swing States is an easy way to help get out the vote. I write them while watching the news. So easy.
On my commute this morning I read the WSJ’s article about the DNI nomination. I appreciate Simon’s analysis. The GOP members of Congress created this monster. I’ll believe they have repented when I see it.
ETTD--Everything That Trump Touches Dies. I can't stand watching Agent Orange, but I did watch the Collins clip. Donald Trump announces he is "in love" with the Egyptian leader? This is absolutely the weirdest, nastiest, perverted bunch of perverted grifters I've seen in my lifetime. What is it about this kind of performance that appeals to people? This is something I will never, ever understand.
Drawing on Warnock’s contagious optimism about activism as an antidote for weariness, I protested on Sunday and propelled the building wave of momentum. (As an aside, I wonder if when the president expresses extreme love for dictators he thinks they need fawning affection the same way he does? Is he obeying in advance so they like him vs. crush him? Thinking it is a weakling’s strategy to survive at all costs).
Politics of Virtue!
And this from NYT columnist Bret Stephens, whose writings I don't usually read since he's normally a Trump apologist. But the "Bone Spur" headline in the print version caught my attention, and I'm glad I kept reading his excoriation of Trump over Iran.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/opinion/iran-us-war-trump-cease-fire.html?unlocked_article_code=1.q1A.Na9Y.ChHNsdVxXJi5&smid=url-share
Great headline - couldn't get past the first few. paragraphs. Can't stomach Bret Stephen's take - he always seems to give Trump undue credit. But thanks for the link! As I said, great headline!
Thank you for that.
The Babyman has had his toys taken away & is letting the adults run things but also making sure the other kids in the sandbox get less, thereby screwing himself. As Jerry would say on Seinfeld: “That’s a shame.”
Looking forward to tonight’s call & to more footage from the opening of the Obama Ctr today. Be sure to watch remarks from BHO & Michelle from yesterday-😍😍😍. What an asset to the South Side the center will be. Just tremendous. (The opening is tomorrow, 6/18, but there is plenty of content already!)
Keep going!
Lisa - that double portrait of them is fire. I can't wait to go see the Center!
The livestream of the opening of the Obama Center is tomorrow at 11 CT, right?
yes, but there is content from yesterday and today. Thanks for clarifying that. :)
Good morning Simon. Thanks for this. And for the good humor all the way along. Here's Dan Pfeiffer this morning https://www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-four-forces-that-will-decide. Curious for you to weigh in on his analysis when you can.
I'll miss you guys tonight but will catch you tomorrow morning. Thanks Simon, for all you are doing. I'm getting people to sign up and pay for Hopium. I think it's working.
Ive moved and my new congressman is Rich Neal. Does anyone live in Berkshire county Mass and have a feel for what he's been up to all these years? Rumor is, he doesn't do much.... I"m already emailing and calling his office.
He’s low key but awesome- did great work in last 🍊admin. Maddow used to have him on all the time. Not sure what he’s been up to since…Also I’m very jealous, went to college in the Pioneer Valley. 😍
Thank you Lisa! I just moved AWAY from the Pioneer valley over to the Berkshires (I lived there for 20 years before we went adventuring in Colorado; all my peeps are here). And thanks for the vote of confidence for Neal. I will put on my good attitude until I experience him myself.
Yes, I know it's not the same area, but it's much closer than central NJ. :)
AHHH Got it. You miss Massachusetts. It is very beautiful right now. I must admit. Kinda seductive. But NJ has tomatoes and corn and beaches and pine barrens. I grew up in Philly. .... I loved the NJ shore.
Ben Meisalis is a relentless podcaster (4+ times/day). This morning he was pointing to the situation room meeting w/o Trump regarding Epstein coverup (per Haberman and Snow), the G7 and his deteriorating physical condition, and whats leaking out about the Iran deal...
These are all big storylines too, that point to the collapsing administration.
Add that to Simon's reporting on his battle with the Senate, and it may be time to start stocking up on the popcorn. 🍿🍿🍿
https://youtu.be/OOvuBmUc06A?is=HH08du4uHgqVpCV0
The Democratic senator out of CT mentioned that the ODNI candidate was pulled because he would not go after Trump enemies, using classified information.
https://x.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/2067285489413988519
I liked the Pfeiffer piece this morning. I was less enamored when I first subscribed but I think he’s been bringing the fire lately.
Enjoy the Berkshires.
I'm still surprised at the extent to which Trump's support is holding up.
No offence meant, but...
Such a pointless comment.
It's also just not in touch with the modern reality of our politics and the power of their propaganda regime. I showed data yesterday that puts us on track to having a blowout mid-term. Trump is far below where he was at this point in his first term, and is now seeing far more 20s and 30s and than 30s and 40s in the polling. Here is lower today than I thought he would ever be this cycle but we just need to keep working it peeps.
Simon, It never, ever pays to underestimate Trump. How many times do we have to learn that? Truman's lowest approval as 22%, Nixon 24, Carter 28, Reagan 35, Bush 1, 29, Clinton 37, Bush 2, 25, Trump 1, 34. ( https://www.davemanuel.com/us-presidential-approval-ratings-history.php) Despite EVERYTHING Trump still polls in the mid-30's, low but a LOT higher than it should be.
Quite seriously, I remember in 1988 and the "data" that literally caused someone in our office on M Street to start looking for drapes for Kitty's White House redecoration. Frankly, try talking to some non-Democrats or even Trumpists. I hope our job is to see into the future not to purvey "data" that exists only to boost our collective self-esteem.
Howard, OK, spend your time here building him up, making him strong and pretending like all these signs of decay, rot and decline are not there for all of us to see.
We live in a very different media environment than what came before. Those lower poll numbers from previous Presidents are irrelevant to the current moment. We will probably never be able to get him under 35 for a sustained period of time. Our goal is to focus on the other 65 percent. The comparisons to previous Presidents is a red herring, and used to make it look like Dems are failing when we are succeeding.
Simon, I'm looking at historical reality albeit from a red state. I'm sorry to cloud your sunny day. I signed up for Hopium but not "Happy Talk".
How I would summarize the argument - we’re working, he’s clearly getting weaker politically (from mid 40s to low 30s), and there’s more work to do. Overall generally positive.
That his approval is higher than we’d all like it to be is a sign of their information prowess and that we’ve more work to do.
And I don’t think anybody here is underestimating him, hence the daily exhortations to action.
John Thune: OK Mr. President, if we pass this bill, do you promise not to bite me?
Trump: Shut up you silly senator, you knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in!
Mike Johnson: (lying on the floor, shivering, writhing in pain)… Sir, please come bite me again, it’s the best biting I’ve ever received.
Trump: I don’t even wanna waste the effort on you, because you’re weak and pathetic. (Kicks Mike in the groin before leaving)
I’ve had enough of “Empire Strikes Back”… Can we get to “Return of the Jedi” now please???
Excellent comment and aren't we all ready to abolish the empire already! ⭐️
I’m so looking forward to the Ewok dance party on that happy day.
@Simon, we have identified the theme and activity for the Hopium post election wrap-up after the inauguration of a new Democratic president in 2029! Just consult with Carla! 😁😁😁
Yubnub, Mother ****er!!!!
I know the analogy here is the Trump regime as the Empire, but it’s hard for me not to picture Trump as Jabba and JD Vance as Salacious Crumb.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
He definitely should be the overlord of the outer rim territories where republic credits are no good, and gambling is the only way to negotiate, rather than being the chancellor of the Galactic Republic… Well played, you win! 🤣🤣🤣
Ossof's ad was pretty good- thanks for sharing- the question is, will the people who need to see it, see it (is it showing on Fox?) and if they do see it, are they so far gone that it won't sway them from the cult?
Depends on who you think needs to see it. I think the most important audience is low-propensity Democratic voters and undecided independents - people who need motivations to vote and clarity on what their vote will mean.
I have long-since given up on any such message reaching the Fox news crowd. They will not hear it. They aren’t ready to hear it. I am more concerned with fighting apathy, though I have to admit Georgia voters generally rise to the occasion. (I give Stacey Abrams a lot of respect for her role in making sure of it.)
that makes sense- but if low propensity voters need motivation to vote, maybe there needs to be a tagline with ads like this, something like: the most important thing you can do for yourself and your community is to vote in November. If you doubt that voting matters, answer this question, if your vote wasn't important, why would they be trying to take it away from you? I don't know the right words, but my point is, if they are democrats and undecided independents, they already know that the guy is not looking out for their interests, they need to be convinced that voting matters, and that needs to be a part of the message
you might read more of Simon's writings and report on what you are doing
I only recently found this substack and became a member- certainly I'm learning more as I go along- I'm learning about my own new IRL community by volunteering for Ground Truth- canvassing in OR 05 - to find out what people are thinking here. It's a start- I just retired and moved here- so hopefully I'll do more as I learn more. I wasn't being critical of anyone on this site with my comment. Simply stating my impressions.
I apologize my comment was so terse and welcome!! in general here you will find Simon has covered many questions a person asks in his daily newsletters; I expect you will enjoy reading back over previous newsletters, he writes new material for us every day.
In the comments here we focus on reporting what we each are doing and updating on such and exchanging information- hope with a plan, ... making it happen.
Again, I apologize for my terseness, very busy day here as I'm sure we all have!! and welcome
OR 05 - what a beautiful area!! and great representative!
That is indeed a good message. I trust Ossoff to make it.
Good message, Kim. Reminds me of an anti-drug ad campaign that ran in the late 60's-early 70's: why do you think they call it dope? Which I assume was pretty successful given how many years it ran. What I think campaigns may well need even more than better messaging is the online equivalent of a ground game, well-organized online communities that deliver on what real influencers (not online celebrities, but the "ordinary" folks in the millions who are disproportionately likely to tell people online about things they've found or learned online) are looking for in what they put their passions behind--access, impact, recognition, and innovation. The Republicans will never deliver on these values--they're too hierarchical--only Democrats are really steeped in the kind of grassroots mentality that would/could allow us to, as Simon often says, "treat our supporters like partners, not ATM machines."
So much money is being spent in politics on TV ads that nobody watches and that persuade nobody. In 2024, *only one* ad out of hundreds in the presidential campaign is even *alleged* to have moved the needle at all, and I think there are a lot of reasons to question whether even that's actually true, and not just hype by corporate media and consultants that collectively rake in billions creating and distributing them. To me it's just real common sense: are you more likely to vote (and vote for a particular candidate) if a TV ad tells you to, or a friend, colleague, or family member does?
Daily calls are in to WI Republican members regarding items on our Hopium agenda. My public comment on the OMB rule has been submitted!
Trump and Sisi need to get a room instead of carrying on in the lobby.
I spent time working on my MI postcards this morning. Later today I'll sign up for a Jolly phone bank next week.
Thank you from MI!
Local activist reporting in:
Yesterday was another Board of Supervisor Meeting day. Our little district 3 MAGAt, having won his reelection, was AWOL for the second week in a row. The MAGAt chair of the Board managed to screw up the Order of Operations on the agenda resulting in ten minutes of confusion over just which items had been approved, when, and by whom.
He subsequently exhibited ignorance over what it meant to talk about rates of change in the consumer price index which in turn would affect certain lot leasing fees. I was so irritated that this retired math prof made a Public Comment to the effect that supervisors should understand relevant arithmetic well enough to explain it to their constituents BEFORE Board Meetings.
I am doing a final rewrite of a piece about public attendance at supervisors’ Board Meetings that will be published in our online Engage Tuolumne this Friday.
And I had an amazing time at Sierra PRIDE. I am feeling out how to be an ally, an advocate, and a liaison with our liberal church now that our PRIDEful Deacon has retired.
Hi Emily - Allies of historically marginalized communities are SO important - thank you for your friendship and advocacy.
Interesting article from Perry Bacon at the New Republic regarding the rise (re-rise?) of the progressive wing of the party and why...
https://newrepublic.com/article/211866/democratic-progressives-winning-primaries-everywhere?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=tnr_daily
Just voted in the Early Voting Run Off Day. More people than I thought would be there, but, of course, not as many as two weeks ago. The enthusiasm is there though in this blood red 1st Congressional District of SC (Nancy Mace) when I went to the local town Democratic Party meeting Monday. Full room of upset and angry people who are fed up with being overlooked by our local, state, and federal officials. Never seen them so animated.
Writing Post Cards to Swing States is an easy way to help get out the vote. I write them while watching the news. So easy.
Thanks again for a great summary.
On my commute this morning I read the WSJ’s article about the DNI nomination. I appreciate Simon’s analysis. The GOP members of Congress created this monster. I’ll believe they have repented when I see it.
Drip, drip, drip….
ETTD--Everything That Trump Touches Dies. I can't stand watching Agent Orange, but I did watch the Collins clip. Donald Trump announces he is "in love" with the Egyptian leader? This is absolutely the weirdest, nastiest, perverted bunch of perverted grifters I've seen in my lifetime. What is it about this kind of performance that appeals to people? This is something I will never, ever understand.
Drawing on Warnock’s contagious optimism about activism as an antidote for weariness, I protested on Sunday and propelled the building wave of momentum. (As an aside, I wonder if when the president expresses extreme love for dictators he thinks they need fawning affection the same way he does? Is he obeying in advance so they like him vs. crush him? Thinking it is a weakling’s strategy to survive at all costs).
My guess is that like all bullies, he is afraid of bigger bullies.