The Biden "Road to Victory in 2024" Strategy Memo

Courage. Opportunity. Democracy. Freedom - Let's do this people!

Friends, team Biden released a big strategy memo today. I have cut and pasted it for you review, below. I think the Hopium community will be pleased with the vision and strategy spelled out here, and may be even find some of it a bit familiar (see here, here, here, here). It is a battle plan of a strong, confident and pragmatic Democratic Party, fresh from important victories in tough places, looking to grow, expand, get loud, keep taking more political real estate from the Rs and defeat MAGA, again, next year.

Take a look and let’s discuss. Like the campaign’s early videos and ads, I think this plan shows Team Biden is very much in touch with our political moment, aware of our opportunities and ready to get this done, with our help and commitment, next year.

Keep working hard all - Simon

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To: Interested Parties
From: Julie C. Rodriguez, Biden-Harris 2024 Campaign Manager
Subj: The Road to Victory in 2024
Date: May 18, 2023

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President Joe Biden has shown he can deliver historic results for the American people, including helping create over 12 million jobs, leading a manufacturing boom that positions us to win the 21st century and lowering health care premiums and prescription drug costs. He and Vice President Kamala Harris spent the first term of their Administration fighting for freedom, for more rights not fewer, and for our democracy – and they are running for reelection to finish the job. 

In 2020, we assembled a broad and diverse coalition that resulted in the most votes in American history for a presidential ticket. We enter the 2024 reelection in a markedly strong position:

1. Marking the best midterm election for a sitting president since FDR and in the months that followed, Democrats won at least one statewide race in every battleground state that was part of the 306-electoral-vote victory in 2020, including double-digit victories in pivotal tipping-point states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That means the President and Vice President enter this cycle with a number of viable pathways to 270 electoral votes. 

2. The Biden-Harris Coalition remains strong going into 2024. The gains Democrats made amongst these voters between 2016 and 2020 have largely persisted through the midterm elections. 

3. There are significant opportunities to grow Democratic support. In 2022, Democrats won elections in spite of a turnout environment that was more Republican than in 2020. This shows that, under the Biden administration, we have gained support from Republican and independent swing voters who had not previously voted for Democrats. 

Since the midterms, Democrats, guided by President Biden’s vision and agenda, have continued to deliver historic performances in key states: a double-digit victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election; wins in special elections in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania; and the end to GOP mayorships in long-time Republican strongholds of Jacksonville and Colorado Springs. Just as the results in special elections in 2022 provided a prescient window into the midterm results, these recent performances by Democrats—more than any polling or prognostication—point to the real strength we have going into 2024. 

Coming off of these victories, the President and Vice President are in a position to prevail over the MAGA extremist agenda once again—here’s how:

Protect and Expand the Map: Like we did in 2020, the Biden-Harris campaign will shore up the “blue wall” with early investments in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, along with states we defended in 2020 like Nevada and New Hampshire. At the same time, we will protect recent Democratic gains in states like Arizona and Georgia, and look to expand the map even further in states like North Carolina and Florida. We are investing in these states early as shown by our 7-figure ad buy in key battleground states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina.

Build on the Strength of the 2020 and 2022 Biden-Harris Coalition: Building on the strength of the Biden-Harris Coalition in 2020 and the gains we made among targeted voters in 2022 will be crucial to our victory in November 2024. In 2020, President Biden made small, but critical gains among rural and white working class voters in battleground states. And in 2022, we saw support among those key demographics grow slightly in states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin, and remain consistent in Georgia and North Carolina.¹ The President’s strength with suburban voters (which increased several points from ‘16 to ‘20) stayed consistent in the midterm elections. And, we know there is room to grow this suburban coalition in the face of extreme Republican policies, as shown by the Wisconsin Supreme Court election in April, with Justice Protasiewicz further extending suburban support and improving Democratic margins in the critical suburban WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) by three points over 2020. These suburban voters are particularly motivated by Republican attacks on reproductive rights.

Communities of color remain strong supporters of President Biden and Vice President Harris and will be central to our victory in 2024. Black, Latino, and AA and NHPI voters continue to support Democrats, and that support remained relatively consistent between 2020 and 2022, particularly in critical 2024 battleground states. Support among Latino voters showed real stability across the country in 2022—from Arizona and Nevada to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, and Black and AA and NHPI voters were instrumental to critical midterm wins in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and contested congressional districts across the country.

Break Through a Fragmented Media Environment, Connecting with Voters Where They Are: Today’s media environment has never been more fragmented. But what we know is that while trust in the media may have eroded, trust in people’s personal networks has never been higher, or consequently, more important. Throughout the campaign, we will use innovative strategies to break through and connect with voters where they are. Our organizing program will focus on leveraging people’s personal networks, through amplifying core messages online, and having personal conversations offline. We’ll engage early and often with traditionally supportive voters, particularly women voters, young voters, Black voters, and Latino voters and AA and NHPI voters. We’ll also focus on reengaging young voters who voted in 2020, but skipped the midterms. Organized labor, which has seen a resurgence in the last few years, will be core to our electoral success, as has been the case throughout President Biden’s career. 

We’ll engage swing voters, meeting them on the platforms and in the places where they spend their time. In addition to a robust surrogate operation, we’ll build on the campaign’s successful 2020 strategy around digital partnerships, and leverage the supportive voices of the Biden-Harris Coalition in their own local communities, platforms, and on the airwaves.  In 2022, Democrats won in spite of a turnout environment that was more Republican than in 2020. This means that Democrats gained votes from Republican and independent swing voters (particularly women over 65).These persuadable voters punished Republican candidates who were seen as too extreme for their states and districts. Senators Kelly (AZ), Hassan (NH), Warnock (GA), and Fetterman (PA), and Governors Whitmer (MI), Hobbs (AZ), Shapiro (PA), Evers (WI) and Kelly (KS) all exceeded expectations and prevailed over their extreme Republican opponents. Nationally, Democrats won 37 of the 47 most competitive races where their Republican opponents were 2020 election deniers. 

Keep Our Focus on the American People: As the Biden-Harris team did in 2020 and 2022, we will keep our focus on fighting for the American people and the issues they care about. We know that they want more freedom, not less; more rights, not fewer; to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out; to live in an America where everyone is equal and has a fair shot; and to have a President with the wisdom, experience and steady leadership to guide our country forward. Driving our campaign are the lived experiences of the American people, not the political echo chamber. Polls and pundits have underestimated Joe Biden his entire life, and he’s proved them wrong time and time again.  

Run Together: Our Party has never been more united than under President Biden’s and Vice President Harris’s leadership. Our campaign is being smart, strategic, and maximizing the tremendous foundation of existing resources and infrastructure that allowed Democrats to defy expectations in 2022. This reelection cycle, the Biden-Harris campaign is able to leverage Party infrastructure from Day One, including tools, technology and people, which means we aren’t starting from scratch. Winning campaigns are forward-looking, tailored for the moment, and use resources and infrastructure strategically—and we’re off to a running start.

Democrats are most successful when we run together. Working collaboratively with candidates and state parties, we’ll build a diverse campaign that’s focused on a unified message, tailored to the communities we need to register, persuade and turn out to vote.

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¹ Based on county-level returns, statewide Democratic candidates in AZ (Kelly), MI (Whitmer), OH (Ryan), PA (Fetterman and Shapiro), NH (Hassan), NV (Cortez Masto), and WI (Evers) enjoyed significantly more support in rural counties than President Biden in 2020. In most other competitive races (AZ-Gov, GA-Sen, NC-Sen, NV-Gov, and WI-Sen) Democratic candidates neither gained nor lost significant ground in rural counties. 

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Courage. Opportunity. Democracy. Freedom.