Although the ceremony takes place in Oslo on 10 December, the Prize will be announced on 9 October, 2026 – just under a month before our November Midterm Elections.
Imagine how inspiring this would be to Americans all across the nation! That we might rise up, take to the streets peacefully and protect polling sites throughout the country, ensuring fair elections!
When they win, and I expect that they will, what's left of Trump's brain will fucking explode. Remember, the American people will get a very potent reminder of his idiotic tariffs and the damage they've done about that time too....his latest round of tariffs are based on a different emergency powers statute that is only good for 5 months and then has be voted on for an extension in congress...I couldn't fucking believe he did it after the SCOTUS decision....like, instead of taking his medicine, taking the off ramp for the tariffs, and letting people largely forget about them by November, he kept them in place, keeping prices high, and then will force the Republicans to either support them a month before the damn midterm election or embarrass the shit out of him a month before the midterm election....no good options. So, if Minneapolis wins the Peace Price a month before, you know that Trump will post some absolutely despicable asshole message or 20 about it on Trash Social and put ICE and what they did in Minneapolis (and anywhere they are still doing it actively and anything else they're doing like trying to intimidate people at polling places) right back in the middle of our public discourse.
George Carlin once did a bit where he said, "I know things that have never been said...for example, no one has ever said, 'Right after I stick this red hot poker in my ass, I'm going to chop my dick off!'....tonight at this show is the first time those words have ever been uttered in that sequence!!" I feel like that phrase is literally Trump's north star for governing...."How can I give America's ass third degree burns and chop off its dick today?" 🤔
Sorry...this is extremely inartful and crass, but I'm feeling a tad wiley today. The people of Minneapolis deserves any and all awards, honors, recognition, and historical significance that can be thrown their way....they will be in very elite company in American history along with the folks who orchestrated the underground railroad, the suffragettes, the nonviolent protesters of the civil rights movement, the Union Army, the Greatest Generation (both the women who kept the lights on here at home and delivered the resources necessary to win and the men who signed up to fight in Europe and the Pacific), and the Continental Army....what they faced and (are still facing I'm sure) and how they met the moment was nothing short of a flashpoint in American History.
An astute analysis. My assumption is that Trump's psyche is tied into knots over this. He knows he has to root for the Republicans to win because if they don't, he might go to jail. But he wants all the attention to be on him all the time, and the impulse to yank our collective chain is going to be irresistible. His urge to hurt as many people as possible is going to be in direct conflict with his lizard brain's urge to protect itself, which means backing off the cruelty and inanity so that the GOP has a chance to win.
Hungarian elections are Sunday – and the autocratic reign of Viktor Orbán just might finally be coming to an end. The latest independent poll shows the opposition Party Tisza leading Orbán’s party by 23 points.
Fun fact: After JD Vance’s visit, Orbán’s odds of winning fell from 33.3% to 30% on Kalshi, while on Polymarket they dropped from 35% to 28%.
Thank you Vicki! And remember to hit like as often as you can. The likes boosts our posts in the Substack algorithm, allowing more people to see them! So try to like as often as you can.
Scott Dworkin puts a request for us to like and restack his posts at the start of each article, and that reminder is helpful. I'd suggest doing the same (maybe at the end if putting it at the beginning doesn't feel right) because I read you daily and a reminder that likes and stacks help you makes me more likely to do it.
A little bit of context is that everyone on Substack has a profile (you, me, etc.). "Restacking" is the term on substack for sharing an article. If you look at profiles (feel free to explore mine) you can see articles that I have read and shared, described as me having "Restacked" the article.
Restacking is helpful to Simon and other people on substack since it makes the substack algorithm more likely to suggest other people read Simon's article.
One last note is that you actually have an article restacked on your profile. Granted, it looks like you might have done it by accident (you restacked the same post by Aaron Parnas twice) but the point is you've already done it, so hopefully it will be simple for you to figure out how to do it again.
I hope this helps and used terminology that is easy for you to understand.
It's been a long time since I considered myself a Catholic, but even I am shocked at news that the Trump administration is threatening the pope. I'm old enough to remember Catholic priests publicly denying Communion to John Kerry and Joe Biden over their stances on reproductive freedom. But neither of them would have ever even considered threatening the pope. I also remember a lot of lectures about how you can't be a "cafeteria Catholic" and pick and choose which church teachings you believed. Someone needs to tell JD Vance, who has a book coming out about being a Catholic.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say NO money for ICE or this illegal war. I also said that Trump is not in touch with reality and needs to be removed one way or another. I'm writing postcards to NC voters.
Trump is indeed a failed president and the Democratic Party should now begin the midterm campaign against all MAGA contenders for political office, and appointees by Donald Trump for any position. If the Republicans have so much money for these races make them spend it starting now.
Did my first phone banking for Virginia's Vote YES campaign last night and it was fun! It's all done thru laptop or tablet so no use of your phone/number at all. Give it a try!
Yes! https://www.ruralgroundgame.org/vote-yes-va They give a walk thru of how it works, and people stay on the main link in case you need to change screens and ask for help, etc.
I’m out here in the audience, Simon, and most grateful for your advice. It’s clarifying and gives me a handbook for my bit of activism now. I forward your messages, too. Take care. We need your enlightening leadership. Thank you!
Dear Simon, have you seen the turnout in Ann Arbor MI for the rally held by Progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed? I’m aware Mallory McMorrow is significantly ahead in polling (who is also fairly progressive). However, El-Sayed makes me nervous. He campaigned with Hassan Piker, a 34 year old streamer who has 3.1 million followers on Twitch and 1.8 million on YouTube, and has quoted “Hamas is a thousand times better” than Israel, describing some Orthodox Jews as “inbred” and claimed that “America deserved 9/11.” This is beyond extreme and voters NEED to be aware of people candidates attach themselves with! I’m obv no fan of Netanyahu or the extreme right wing in his cabinet (being Jewish myself). I personally feel Netanyahu has exacerbated much of the rise in Antisemitism we see unfold today and unfortunately so (from another Jewish man go figure). However, “Hamas is better?” “America deserved 9/11?” And this guy El-Sayed is knowingly allowing this streamer into his circle?!? Too dangerous and he must be asked to explain himself. We have to do better! This is what people refer to when they voice their concerns with Antisemitism coming from the Far-Left as much as from the Far-Right. I hope McMorrow draws attention to this 🙏. MI is a must win Senate seat!
I’m actually not so sure it does to be frank. It brings fuller context to what he said but I sincerely stand by my outlook when responding to Thomas nonetheless. As it relates to the MI primary itself, our goal is to win! McMorrow is a ‘winning candidate’ in my view. El Sayed is not.
piker is a local kid here from east brunswick nj, aligned with his uncle cenk from the young turks, a name he took from the architects of the armenian genocide. nice. anyway, piker is going to be used to chastise dems for not embracing muslims, or for being anti-jewish for those who do embrace him. another example of the right wing sitting around looking to stir shit from a guy the vast majority of us had never heard of. so he has a bunch of listeners; in a country this size, its a drop in the bucket. but the right wing had to dredge him out into the open to create a rift among dems. lets not fall for it.
Thank you Tom, read the article. I appreciate you sending this to me and in fact, it only cemented my viewpoint further. I hope Simon has the chance to read my commentary here cuz I too include him very much in this conversation. What I’m about to go through here is honestly something I’ve been meaning to dive into for some time in this community as I feel it’s of great importance for our progress and success moving forward.
I understand the concept of Piker’s points being made. But his rhetoric is extremely dangerous nonetheless and a bit out of touch with the bigger picture. Oct 7 was the largest attack on Jewish people by numbers since the Holocaust (which yes, we know was a genocide). Of course that doesn’t negate the fact Netanyahu has engaged is such abhorrent fashion towards Gaza. Both are neither the point.
Two things can be true at once! They can BOTH be horrible occurrences. There should be NO comparison in which is ‘more evil.’ When we blur those lines, we risk exactly what we’re seeing today…a rise in both Antisemitism and Islamophobia. The Jewish people had NOWHERE to go after the Holocaust (those who survived).
America, while coming in on the final hours to help win WWII, still had a significant chuck of Antisemitism roaming through the country in the wake of the Nazi Germany movement (not dissimilar to the ‘America First’ MAGA movement and hence why many or most Eastern European Jewish immigrants at the time changed their last name)!!!
Right, wrong, or indifferent as to how Israel was created, the Jewish people and furthermore, the Israeli society is NOT to blame! Those Jews who had nowhere to go…what were they supposed to do? Feel? Say? “Thanks, but no thanks. I don’t want to impose on others in the Middle East, I’ll just spend the rest of my life searching for a safe haven in hopes a Nazi isn’t lingering around, waiting to kill me.” Get my point? Of course I feel for the Palestinians who at the time felt their world was turned upside down as well. Blame the governments not the people.
Piker’s points have merit towards a discussion/debate but his phrasing IS reckless…and he’s not an idiot…he knows it too. He’s stirring! The Far Left is Anti Israel for the wrong reasons and the Far Right is Pro Israel for the wrong reasons. All of US in between seem to get left out in the cold.
The Far-Left claim themselves ‘Social Justice Warriors’ and while honorably in support of the necessary freedom for the innocent people of Gaza, seem to just the same, discard the innocent Israelis and conveniently forget Oct 7 ever occurred in the first place.
“From the River to the Sea,’ which we saw chanted by young extremists over the last few years does NOT mean “Free Palestine.” It means to wipe Israel off the map…literally. In case anyone in the community doesn’t understand the context to that phrase. In fact, it means to wipe any nation off the map when used towards them.
To be Anti-Israel in its entirety…IS…to be Antisemitic! Just like if I were to be Anti-Palestine in its entirely…I’d therefore be Islamophobic or Anti-Muslim…obv something I’m not. The vast majority of Americans (both parties alike) are Pro Israel the nation and its people, believing its right to exist at least as a nation if not as a Jewish nation (although as a Jewish individual, I do take issue with Piker’s assertion that believing its right to exist as a Jewish nation is equivalent to “Liberal Nazism”).
Further from the truth when we know Israel’ society is highly diverse. It’s rather instead, represented as a Jewish society in honor of long being a safe haven for the Jewish people worldwide (although Netanyahu now complicates that long held vision).
In conjunction with that, the vast majority are also Anti-Netanyahu and his extremist government. The majority are Pro the Palestinian people and a free Gaza region while also being vehemently Anti-Hamas. That should ALL coexist! However, we don’t really make it that cohesive for ourselves do we?!?
Now, the Far-Right are Pro Israel for the wrong reasons. One, they align with Netanyahu’ vision and/or the MAGA wing in Congress see their aligning with Israel as an opportunity to isolate the Democratic Party and attempt to establish them as Antisemitic (even though they could care less themselves).
Another faction of the Far-Right claims themselves Pro Israel not due to any sense of Pro-Jewish identity. But due to their extremist Christian views, thinking Jerusalem is where the second coming will arrive to take all ‘the good Christians with him’ when the world comes to an end and that Israel has to be kept alive and kicking in connection to that theory…only then, when Jesus comes back, does he leave behind all the Jews (even though he was Jewish himself 🤔). Both extremist ideologies on both sides are crazy…obv!!!
But they’re ideologies we have to recognize actually exist unfortunately. This is one of the MOST necessary conversations our party has to have with each other and an issue we must confront. The sooner the better, otherwise we give the GOP ample opportunity to seize the narrative and win!
Think of the majority of our candidates who have won and by significant margins. Spanberger, Sherrill, Shapiro, Moore, Suozzi, etc. Think of those who Hopium are currently supporting! Talarico, Ossoff, Cooper, etc. ALL Left of Center to Practical Progressive whom are ALL Pro Israel the nation and its people/Pro Gaza and its people…Anti Netanyahu/Anti Hamas!!! You know…like most Americans, including even most young people!
We should yearn for Israel to acquire new leadership that inspires like that of Golda Mayer and also yearn for Palestine to acquire new leadership that represents their majority rather than allows for Hamas to walk all over them. More importantly, we should yearn for a two-state solution…which is factually…and feasibly…the MOST diplomatic solution in our modern world.
Do I think Piker and perhaps even El Sayed fully comprehends the nuance of all of this?!? Unfortunately, I don’t have confidence either of them do. Piker’s laziness in shelving Oct 7 to make bigger point is counterintuitive and misinformed. “Oct 7…smeventh! We have bigger issues now!” That’s how that comes across, period! That’s lol the GOP saying “Jan 6? Over and done! Move on!” Same thing! What about McMorrow? Does she see the bigger picture? Most likely yes.
Nevertheless, these conversations must be had within our circles especially if we are going to become the ‘big tent’ party we seek to be. Yes, we’re winning, gaining, flipping and it’s greatly encouraging to see. However, this issue is a shadow hovering in the background and one that will need to be addressed in due time (starting now). The Republicans twist themselves into pretzels enough trying to defend Trump and the indefensible. Let us not succumb to the same pathetic fate without historical context, nuanced debate, and so forth.
We need to draw a concise and succinct line in the sand starting yesterday! Antisemitism…wrong! Islamophobia…wrong! Netanyahu…wrong! Hamas…wrong! Israel the nation and its people…right! Gaza the region and its people…right! Two state solution…right!
If one were to deny Israel’s existence to the most Progressive Jewish American…they would take issue!!! To deny Israel’s government is one thing. To deny the nation’ existence at all is a whole other thing especially today because there’s a whole civilization of Israelis!!!
Most of them hate Netanyahu but love their country. Most Americans hate Trump but love America. Most Russians hate Putin but love Russia. Most Iranians hate their regime but love their nation. As a party I really feel we have to be on the same page with this. The common denominator here as it relates to what the problem is…are the governments!!! NOT the people!
Let us not give them what ‘they want’ and become the bad guys ourselves too. Now, if I was a congressman, to all of that I’d say…I yield the floor 🤣🙏✌️.
I will work to come to a greater understanding of all this. Thanks everyone for weighing in. Two initial points - I don't like the legitimization of anti-Zionism, which I consider to be extreme, borderline genocidal view; and to downplay Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah's genocidal intent in Israel is just ignorant.
Finally, I think this failed war has changed everything, and will be entering a new period in our relationship to the Middle East, including Israel. What that means I don't know but that Bibi-Trump managed to make Iran stronger not weaker in the region suggests both should go.
Simon, I felt I had to share this with you. I was speaking earlier about these very same issues with a friend of mine who lives in Michigan. He’s around 30 and is a progressive Democrat (although he had a strong appreciation for both Biden and Harris as well). We agreed on our shared outlook towards the MI Senate race. However, he brought up another point that I found both alarming yet, informative.
He said there is a large Anti-Israel sentiment sweeping across the younger generations (right, wrong, or indifferent as to their reasoning). We both agreed that when Trump goes, ultimately so does the MAGA movement because he IS the movement. However, we also agreed the movement will attempt to shape shift.
How? We’re not sure but it wouldn’t be surprising if the GOP chooses to focus far more on the ‘America First’ movement similar to that of Charlie Kirk or MTG, Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, etc. Obv ‘America First’ only works if it’s not at the expense of severe isolationism which unfortunately, many younger voters (young men in particular) seem very misinformed/uninformed about.
So my friend posed the following theory…Assuming God willing, that both Vance and Rubio are too attached to Trump’ failed legacy to win nor even achieve the nomination in 2028…it doesn’t seem likely the GOP will magically pull themselves out from under the MAGA or MAGA adjacent spell so soon and say…put up the likes of Kinzinger (who likely wouldn’t even run as a Republican today anyway).
Though on its face, this may sound outlandish, it’s plausible just the same as we’ve known to now expect the unexpected…it IS foreseeable however, that we could watch a Newsom vs Tucker 2028 election come to fruition. Or Mark Kelly vs Tucker, or similar/someone like him.
Tucker is a fool but not ‘dumb.’ He’s an effective opportunist who perhaps has a little more leverage than Vance right now, being on the outside of all of this looking in. My friend expressed a concern that someone like Tucker could ascend to the nomination, riding high on an Anti-Israel, America First platform separately from Trump’s boisterous tactics.
Against Newsom who’s Pro Israel (in the practical way being he’s against Netanyahu but does not have an annihilating viewpoint towards Israel, all of which is where I too stand), my friend fears Tucker or someone like him could sway enough young men towards the GOP.
Now obv, this is all too far out, unpredictable, arguably not worth expending much energy on. Frankly, I think the likes of both Newsom and Kelly have the skill, intellect, and keen awareness to outpace nearly ANY GOP contender with messaging and connection even in spite of our party’s own flaws.
I say the same for Shapiro too (even in spite his being Jewish which as a Jewish person myself, understands that for my community, ascending to the Presidency is a difficult feat in a very Christian centric nation).
Plus, any Jewish voters who happened to vote for Trump this last time around certainly wouldn’t this time around if our theory is the kind of isolated stance the next GOP candidate were to take. Yet this speaks to a larger issue which is the challenge of courting back young men into our coalition!
We don’t want to be in a position in which we think to ourselves “well, more women vote anyway and we have more young women on our side so we can manage in the margins.” That mentality obv would prove detrimental because this generation of young men IS sway-able (at least partially).
Hence why I respect the way Newsom, Kelly, Pete B, President Obama, Kinzinger, Scott Galloway, even Kamala, Senator Slotkin, and both Governors Spanberger and Sherrill ALL contribute to this social crisis which provides us, the pro democracy movement a real thriving opportunity…should we seize it without too much nuanced debate over being ‘offensive’ and other minutia (hence, much of what drew people away from our party these prior elections).
Anyway, I understand the scenario I pose seems far-fetched but we’ve experienced a landscape now which tells us…unfortunately, it’s not as far-fetched as we’d like to think. Any feedback on how we can attack these matters offensively as early and as effectively as possible so that we set ourselves up for success beyond the midterms as much as possible?!?
Thank you again for your time and your tireless leadership. You’ve no clue how much I value this community and your newsletters. Alongside Marc Elias/Brian Tyler Cohen, Heather Cox Richardson, this community provides the most significant data and insight possible and is undoubtedly a key factor in our recent successes 🙏✌️💕.
Thanks for this, Blake. A few weeks ago, I had a student in my office who was talking just to talk (I teach Spanish, so he drops by a few times a month for conversational practice) and he started saying something that verged on antisemitism. I broke into English and told him that I thought he needed to be careful to separate political criticism from the disparagement of an entire religion, but hesitated to get too far into it because I'm a professor at a public university. He took in what I said, but I have been sensing the rise in antisemitism on campus ever since the Oct. 7 attacks. Some of these podcasts are fairly subtle; others are not at all, but they're all toxic. It's alarming.
I watched the online forum last night for the MI Senate candidates, hosted by Statewide Indivisible Michigan. Stevens did not show up, so it was just McMorrow and El-Sayed. I was surprised at the emoji trolling (it was Zoom) that the El-Sayed fans did, like snakes, rats, etc every time McMorrow began to speak. There were some Israel flags among the snakes and rats, too.
This might not be fair to El-Sayed, but the behavior of his supporters has affected my opinion of his candidacy.
My point exactly. Candidates should be keen to who they share their circle with, who they promote, and while primaries are competitive…they should take stock in how their supporters react/behave towards their opponents (within the same party) who are aligned in the overarching goal…THEN attack the poor behavior the way Obama and McCain would do with each other’s supporters. We either revert back to that decorum and red line amidst starting a new, or we dwell in that ugly division that could end up costing us as much as it does the GOP.
He may be impressive but we need a candidate who can win ‘statewide.’ Especially in the swingiest of swing states such as MI. In my view, McMorrow has that ability more than El-Sayed. Not to mention, and I say this as a man…we need to significantly even out the scales and push more women into positions of leadership. Maybe I was ahead of my time when I was a kid but I’ve long supported more female centric leadership in the political realm than most of my male peers. Hence why I was proud to witness the rise of both Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer, and why I was proud to be apart of Hopium when Elyssa Slotkin, Abigail Spanberger, and Mikie Sherrill all got elected by significant margins. And that’s just the beginning!!! Fortunately for McMorrow, she has both elements working for her (the second being her electability).
I have, as a woman, been volunteering for local, state and national women candidates for 26 years. I still like El-Sayed. P.S. Was a volunteer for Harris and Spanberger also.
I respect that. El-Sayed may have potential. I won’t deny that. However, it’s one thing if he went on Hassan Piker’s podcast to have a discussion. It’s another thing when one invites someone to campaign with/for them. It indicates an aligned ideology. Hassan Piker’s rhetoric is dangerous…for both Jewish and Muslim voters (even if they themselves don’t know it). When the man minimized Oct 7 by stating ‘Hamas is better than Israel,’ it doesn’t matter what context it was under. It was reckless and likely purposely so. Someone like Piker likely knew exactly what he was doing when he made those comments. Oct 7 and Gaza may differ in total casualties but the horror of both are equivalent and always will be. Minimizing one over the other risks increasing both Antisemitism and Islamophobia and potentially normalizing it if we let it fester. El-Sayed made an irresponsible decision in my view to platform him in such a way voters would be prone to associate Piker’s ideology with his. I suspect McMorrow is keen to that. Hence, why she is still polling highest in the primary race. Hopefully, it stays that way.
I’m not familiar with Hassan Piker other than to see him interviewed on another Substack. I don’t keep up with all this. If I did I would weigh 300 lbs from lack of movement and have no life. News digestion is limited to 2 hours per day with weekends optional.
In many of the phone banks I've participated in, the organizers have used Scale to Win. This is a dialer that automatically connects you to voters. Once you're done speaking with a voter, you can click a button that moves you to the next call. If you sign up for a Virginia redistricting phone bank, you will get training on the dialer. The organizers will show you what it is and exactly what you should do on it.
Give it a try! I much prefer Scale to Win to the Open VPB dialer in which you have to manually call people.
Simon, if the GOP is starting to spend big money now, does it mean the Democrats need to start doing the same rather than waiting? They clearly need to start framing things early. That is what the GOP seem to believe.
Thanks to everyone doing the phone bank tonight. I will sign up for next Thursday. Tonight isn't possible. I do have 10 postcards I'm working on for voter outreach to AZ CD6.
Simon, I don't know what you ate for breakfast, or did you take a trip to Krypton?? This is really special!
And, I definitely agree with you, that the way to get rid of Trump is not by the 25th Ammendment or by Impeachment. If the Maga Republicans don't change now, they will let Trump continue to destroy our Country. We don't know how Trump is going to Fall, but He will, without a doubt!!
I will make my calls to the Four Rs'. They've had too much Vacation time!!
We were out on the overpass in eastern Iowa yesterday with signs to drivers below on Interstate 80 reading “Stop war crimes” and “Remove 47” when we noticed that we were receiving more (four- or five-fold) middle finger salutes compared to recent overpass events.
Sure, this could be random variation, but the vibe felt angrier. Less “there you go again you nutty libtards, I’m gonna flip you off” and more “shut the f**k up, I don’t want to think about this right now.”
It’s certainly possible that I’m imagining the difference, but there’s not a lot else to do when waving from an overpass for 2 hours except watch the expressions on the faces zooming past beneath, so I’ve had a lot of practice.
I have a MAGA family member who told me that she has stopped following the news. I think the cognitive dissonance got too stressful, which I view as success! There is now an opening in her mind since Fox isn't on all day long. The drivers in Iowa might be experiencing similar amounts of psychological distress. (To which I say, "Well, welcome to the club!!!")
Thanks, all. I am finishing up my VA postcards, and though it may be close, I am optimistic that we'll prevail there. Making the daily calls, and I think we're getting through. Sen. Kim used a recent town hall to address this issue head on, and has called for Orange's removal. Keep making the calls, and keep going!
You know, as I think about this, I can't help but devolve a little bit into cliche' and platitude, which I know can feel a bit trite right now and seem insufficient to the scope of the moment...but I hope you'll hear me out.
I'm actually developing a very hopeful outlook about the future because my studies of history, and of the human condition in general (I'm a bit of a nerd for psychology and sociology) tells me something profound about times of crisis: the crisis itself always has within it the capacity to pull from you what was already there that you have never needed to access in the same way that is equal to the challenge.
In other words, Trump is nothing short of the biggest, broadest, most consequential catastrophe created in and unleashed by American society....for both the whole of the American population and the world at large. Nobody else even comes close if you consider the powers at his current disposal with today's technology and interconnected, interdependent world, although I say that with all due deference to the atrocities carried out against minority subsets of our society in the past and can understand how as of yet, this doesn't reach that level of malevolence in raw outcome....but given time and another election victory or two, and that level of malevolence will be unleashed upon pretty much ALL of us, and that is unprecedented in our history, and the negative geopolitical tsunami due to our position in the world at large would wash over all of us again for a double punch. So, what we are dealing with is very grim indeed.
But...it seems to me like there is a moment of profound opportunity at our fingertips. This problem didn't happen overnight....it was a slow growing potential that most of us didn't see coming until it was at our doorstep. It was a product of hundreds of issues that were either ignored, or not dealt with sufficiently over many decades.
1. It was white people living in silos and not understanding the different America our communities of color had to contend with and slowing down or resisting social and economic reforms that could have created a better and more equitable playing field due to our own discomfort from feeling the demographic shifts approach the majority-minority tipping point.
2. It was Democrats wanting to govern in good faith (not to say every individual person in the D party has been altruistic and honorable in every way...but our coalition is structurally inclined toward wanting to accomplish things through government spending/regulations/legislation that will improve the whole of society) so much, that they continued to let Republicans shift the philosophical and ideological overton window to the right a little every day without ever drawing the appropriate red lines, recognizing when it was the right time to stop the train and fight for the principle rather than take a modest improvement in practice while actually losing the debate and weakening our brand, people's understanding of what we stand for, their belief in our strength and scrappiness to fight for what we need rather than accept what we're offered if it's shitty.....our hearts have largely been in the right place, but we've been given far too little credit for the good we've done post cold-war because we've allowed our rhetorical response to the Republican's recalcitrance, zombie-like adherence to repeatedly failed dogma, and gross incompetence for the last 40 years be weak and mushy out of our desire to cooperate under whatever circumstances we find ourselves in the name of doing some public good. I give us high marks for our good intentions and good works....but feel like we've been very slow in recognizing the nature of the threat the Republicans (not just Trump) were becoming long before 2016, and how we were playing into their information home turf constantly, even when we managed to win power.
3. It was Republicans creating this creepy compliance based and hierarchical ecosystem that groomed people for office and the judiciary, and created this disgusting bullshit based culture inside the coalition that never got any outside information, and didn't pay any attention to outcomes or data....their bosses decided long ago what policies they should advocate for, and it didn't fucking matter what the results of those policies were. That gross and yucky cult like herd that they created was giving me the creeps in the goddamn 90s, and it just kept getting worse. So, when their party was overtaken by a con artist using right wing nationalism, nativism, and isolationism to gin up their base and succeeded in winning their presidential nomination content in 2016, of course they all fell in line and decided to "ride the tiger"....anything short of compliance had been drilled out of them years before. The few that spoke up or took any kind of a stand without voluntarily leaving the party did so in the weakest most inconsequential way possible and were kicked out of the party within 2 - 4 years for doing it. So we've been dealing with them watching and abetting the creation of this catastrophe while constantly gaslighting us that it's not that bad, and that we're all a bunch of overreacting overdramatic fragile liberal alarmists, and that has created a permission structure for millions of Americans to look the other way for far too long and assume everything was still normal, just with a more colorful personality behind the presidential seal.
And, any number of other smaller problems helped create this gargantuan one we're in now. But...it seems to me like the only way to the other side is for white people to finally get a grip that our majority status will eventually go away, and for us to get a true glimpse of the reality that being a person of color, or a woman, or somewhere other than what we've always considered normal on the sexual preference & gender identity spectrum, or a person with a disability, or a person suffering with treatable but stigmatized mental health issues....are living in a very different country than those who fit nicely into the American as Apple Pie portrait we hold in our heads.
And for Democrats to learn that sometimes we have to win the rhetorical and philosophical debate BEFORE we compromise, and it needs to be on the BIG IDEAS, not just the nickel and dime shit in the daily scrum, because if we don't, we get no credit for any good we accomplish and Republicans receive no political punishment for their failures. Most importantly, if we don't learn to do a better job winning these big philosophical debates, the American people will never pressure the Republicans to modernize and change their failed ideology in ways that aren't completely destructive to our democracy, our standing in the world, and our collective well being.
And finally, Republicans have to learn that you can be part of a political coalition and still have some flexibility to exercise your own judgment when something feels wrong, and that it's worth it to do that even if you have to find a new line of work afterward...this absolute compliance cult shit is simply unsustainable for a liberal democracy, and it's not even good for the oligarchs in the end....it's not fun to be a billionaire in Russia where you're expected to just let Putin do whatever he wants at the drop of a hat with your assets or else have the full might of the Russian Government come in a destroy your life and take everything away from you.....they may not realize it yet, but our billionaire class would be a lot better off having their business a little more regulated and paying higher taxes, but enjoying freedom and the quality of life than can ONLY come from a thriving society....lot's more fun to be successful in a thriving, innovative, vibrant society than a shithole full of people ready to come to your door with pitchforks any moment the police state is asleep.
Well my friends.....the scale of Trump's disastrous greed, corruption, incompetence, being compromised in whatever ways he clearly is by hostile foreign governments, and probably malignant oligarchs here in the US....in short, his OLYMPIC SCALE FUCKUPS....the consequences of all of that have within them the capacity to wake up ENOUGH white people (especially men), ENOUGH Democratic Electeds, and ENOUGH Republican Electeds, to meet this moment and meaningfully change these dynamics that have led to this moment and stabilize our society for growth, prosperity, success, good will, leadership, and innovation for several decades to come....the work will never be over, but we are due for a whole of society growth and maturity spurt after a very long and costly adolescence.
I still believe in the potential greatness of this country and the inherent goodness of its people as long as they are given the right information (why we have to start taking the philosophical and rhetorical battle more seriously), a fair shot (why white people have to come to grips with the structural inequities that exist and stop resisting leveling the playing field, and recognize that it will benefit them as much as it benefits our fellow Americans in minority communities), and good options (which is why Republicans have to snap out of this weird thing they do and modernize to be an acceptable modern alternative). I think we can do it....keep the faith and one step at a time. Love to you all.
i just think the dems need to keep telling the american people over and over again what dems have done for them: social security, medicare, obamacare, 40 hr work week, the chips act, etc etc. the repubs just dont do things for people. unless they are wealthy or billionaires. americans dont even know this. and simons great job chart under dems vs repubs. we need to advertise our wins! beat our chests! let people know. just a gosh darn list of our best stuff. over and over again.
Thoughtful analysis, PianoMan. As to the creepy cult-like behavior of Republicans in Congress (and perhaps other MAGA devotees), I've long felt that the segment of the population who has joined this group must have some inherent differences from those who consider themselves Independent or Democrat. Perhaps this is best encapsulated by the metaphor of herding sheep vs herding cats. I'm not a historian, so I'd be really interested to know whether other countries that lost - or nearly lost - their democracies had similar kinds of divides within their populations that contributed to their political slide toward authoritarianism. I suspect that 'follower' (or 'joiner') psychology has played a significant role during early human evolution, and perhaps even more recently, although it seems maladaptive in the current geopolitical climate.
*The People of Minneapolis* have been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. That award would be beautiful, imho – and highly deserved!
https://www.thenation.com/article/activism/the-nation-nominates-minneapolis-for-the-nobel-peace-prize/
Although the ceremony takes place in Oslo on 10 December, the Prize will be announced on 9 October, 2026 – just under a month before our November Midterm Elections.
Imagine how inspiring this would be to Americans all across the nation! That we might rise up, take to the streets peacefully and protect polling sites throughout the country, ensuring fair elections!
(Yes, I’m well aware, that in his own deeply troubled mind, Trump believes he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize simply because he *didn’t* nuke Iran.)
Geez and I moved. I still hope they win. It would be awesome if they won.
When they win, and I expect that they will, what's left of Trump's brain will fucking explode. Remember, the American people will get a very potent reminder of his idiotic tariffs and the damage they've done about that time too....his latest round of tariffs are based on a different emergency powers statute that is only good for 5 months and then has be voted on for an extension in congress...I couldn't fucking believe he did it after the SCOTUS decision....like, instead of taking his medicine, taking the off ramp for the tariffs, and letting people largely forget about them by November, he kept them in place, keeping prices high, and then will force the Republicans to either support them a month before the damn midterm election or embarrass the shit out of him a month before the midterm election....no good options. So, if Minneapolis wins the Peace Price a month before, you know that Trump will post some absolutely despicable asshole message or 20 about it on Trash Social and put ICE and what they did in Minneapolis (and anywhere they are still doing it actively and anything else they're doing like trying to intimidate people at polling places) right back in the middle of our public discourse.
George Carlin once did a bit where he said, "I know things that have never been said...for example, no one has ever said, 'Right after I stick this red hot poker in my ass, I'm going to chop my dick off!'....tonight at this show is the first time those words have ever been uttered in that sequence!!" I feel like that phrase is literally Trump's north star for governing...."How can I give America's ass third degree burns and chop off its dick today?" 🤔
Sorry...this is extremely inartful and crass, but I'm feeling a tad wiley today. The people of Minneapolis deserves any and all awards, honors, recognition, and historical significance that can be thrown their way....they will be in very elite company in American history along with the folks who orchestrated the underground railroad, the suffragettes, the nonviolent protesters of the civil rights movement, the Union Army, the Greatest Generation (both the women who kept the lights on here at home and delivered the resources necessary to win and the men who signed up to fight in Europe and the Pacific), and the Continental Army....what they faced and (are still facing I'm sure) and how they met the moment was nothing short of a flashpoint in American History.
An astute analysis. My assumption is that Trump's psyche is tied into knots over this. He knows he has to root for the Republicans to win because if they don't, he might go to jail. But he wants all the attention to be on him all the time, and the impulse to yank our collective chain is going to be irresistible. His urge to hurt as many people as possible is going to be in direct conflict with his lizard brain's urge to protect itself, which means backing off the cruelty and inanity so that the GOP has a chance to win.
Meanwhile in HUNGARY:
Hungarian elections are Sunday – and the autocratic reign of Viktor Orbán just might finally be coming to an end. The latest independent poll shows the opposition Party Tisza leading Orbán’s party by 23 points.
Fun fact: After JD Vance’s visit, Orbán’s odds of winning fell from 33.3% to 30% on Kalshi, while on Polymarket they dropped from 35% to 28%.
Go JD!! I knew he had it in him
Can we please have JD Vance come and campaign for vulnerable Republican incumbents throughout America?
We keep taking one for Team Earth. Yay, us!
Simon-this was one of your best. Thank you for all this-
Thank you Vicki! And remember to hit like as often as you can. The likes boosts our posts in the Substack algorithm, allowing more people to see them! So try to like as often as you can.
Scott Dworkin puts a request for us to like and restack his posts at the start of each article, and that reminder is helpful. I'd suggest doing the same (maybe at the end if putting it at the beginning doesn't feel right) because I read you daily and a reminder that likes and stacks help you makes me more likely to do it.
I always assume replying helps too. I always like, restack, and most always reply.
Can you explain what “restack” means? I know where the restack icon is; but I have no clue what effect is set in motion by clicking it.
Thanks (and use terminology an old woman like me will get!)
Sure thing.
A little bit of context is that everyone on Substack has a profile (you, me, etc.). "Restacking" is the term on substack for sharing an article. If you look at profiles (feel free to explore mine) you can see articles that I have read and shared, described as me having "Restacked" the article.
Restacking is helpful to Simon and other people on substack since it makes the substack algorithm more likely to suggest other people read Simon's article.
One last note is that you actually have an article restacked on your profile. Granted, it looks like you might have done it by accident (you restacked the same post by Aaron Parnas twice) but the point is you've already done it, so hopefully it will be simple for you to figure out how to do it again.
I hope this helps and used terminology that is easy for you to understand.
Thank you for explaining. This has all been a foreign language to me.
Very helpful, thank you for taking the time, Derek!
First thing I do is hit 'like'.
Before I have even read the content/watched the video!!
Same. It isn’t as though I ever change my mind!
Thank you, Simon, for a great talk last night.
It's been a long time since I considered myself a Catholic, but even I am shocked at news that the Trump administration is threatening the pope. I'm old enough to remember Catholic priests publicly denying Communion to John Kerry and Joe Biden over their stances on reproductive freedom. But neither of them would have ever even considered threatening the pope. I also remember a lot of lectures about how you can't be a "cafeteria Catholic" and pick and choose which church teachings you believed. Someone needs to tell JD Vance, who has a book coming out about being a Catholic.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say NO money for ICE or this illegal war. I also said that Trump is not in touch with reality and needs to be removed one way or another. I'm writing postcards to NC voters.
Trump is indeed a failed president and the Democratic Party should now begin the midterm campaign against all MAGA contenders for political office, and appointees by Donald Trump for any position. If the Republicans have so much money for these races make them spend it starting now.
Just a heads up, legacy media is starting right in on the Republicans' "rehabilitate the GOP/Trump" plans, with this laughable "article" trying to make it seem like Republicans are doing well: https://www.newsweek.com/gop-midterm-polling-boost-donald-trump-approval-rating-11798723
I mention this because inevitably our side tends to get all panicked whenever they see stuff like this.
i am seeing regular articles talking about what a disaster spanberger is as well; the usual suspects, like the washington examiner....
newsweek is a laughable source anymore. best to ignore them altogether.
Did my first phone banking for Virginia's Vote YES campaign last night and it was fun! It's all done thru laptop or tablet so no use of your phone/number at all. Give it a try!
Great work Deb!
Can you participate if you're not on the East Coast?
Yes! https://www.ruralgroundgame.org/vote-yes-va They give a walk thru of how it works, and people stay on the main link in case you need to change screens and ask for help, etc.
Thank you!
Thank you. You give me so much hope and I learn so much. Keep up the fight.
Best talk ever, Simon. Thank you for bringing clarity and focus to this community.
I’m out here in the audience, Simon, and most grateful for your advice. It’s clarifying and gives me a handbook for my bit of activism now. I forward your messages, too. Take care. We need your enlightening leadership. Thank you!
Dear Simon, have you seen the turnout in Ann Arbor MI for the rally held by Progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed? I’m aware Mallory McMorrow is significantly ahead in polling (who is also fairly progressive). However, El-Sayed makes me nervous. He campaigned with Hassan Piker, a 34 year old streamer who has 3.1 million followers on Twitch and 1.8 million on YouTube, and has quoted “Hamas is a thousand times better” than Israel, describing some Orthodox Jews as “inbred” and claimed that “America deserved 9/11.” This is beyond extreme and voters NEED to be aware of people candidates attach themselves with! I’m obv no fan of Netanyahu or the extreme right wing in his cabinet (being Jewish myself). I personally feel Netanyahu has exacerbated much of the rise in Antisemitism we see unfold today and unfortunately so (from another Jewish man go figure). However, “Hamas is better?” “America deserved 9/11?” And this guy El-Sayed is knowingly allowing this streamer into his circle?!? Too dangerous and he must be asked to explain himself. We have to do better! This is what people refer to when they voice their concerns with Antisemitism coming from the Far-Left as much as from the Far-Right. I hope McMorrow draws attention to this 🙏. MI is a must win Senate seat!
Interesting article about/interview with Piker from the New Republic a few days ago...
https://newrepublic.com/article/208412/hasan-piker-interview-third-way-el-sayed-centrist-critics?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=tnr_daily
This article brings the full context. Thank You, Thomas!
I’m actually not so sure it does to be frank. It brings fuller context to what he said but I sincerely stand by my outlook when responding to Thomas nonetheless. As it relates to the MI primary itself, our goal is to win! McMorrow is a ‘winning candidate’ in my view. El Sayed is not.
piker is a local kid here from east brunswick nj, aligned with his uncle cenk from the young turks, a name he took from the architects of the armenian genocide. nice. anyway, piker is going to be used to chastise dems for not embracing muslims, or for being anti-jewish for those who do embrace him. another example of the right wing sitting around looking to stir shit from a guy the vast majority of us had never heard of. so he has a bunch of listeners; in a country this size, its a drop in the bucket. but the right wing had to dredge him out into the open to create a rift among dems. lets not fall for it.
Thank you Tom, read the article. I appreciate you sending this to me and in fact, it only cemented my viewpoint further. I hope Simon has the chance to read my commentary here cuz I too include him very much in this conversation. What I’m about to go through here is honestly something I’ve been meaning to dive into for some time in this community as I feel it’s of great importance for our progress and success moving forward.
I understand the concept of Piker’s points being made. But his rhetoric is extremely dangerous nonetheless and a bit out of touch with the bigger picture. Oct 7 was the largest attack on Jewish people by numbers since the Holocaust (which yes, we know was a genocide). Of course that doesn’t negate the fact Netanyahu has engaged is such abhorrent fashion towards Gaza. Both are neither the point.
Two things can be true at once! They can BOTH be horrible occurrences. There should be NO comparison in which is ‘more evil.’ When we blur those lines, we risk exactly what we’re seeing today…a rise in both Antisemitism and Islamophobia. The Jewish people had NOWHERE to go after the Holocaust (those who survived).
America, while coming in on the final hours to help win WWII, still had a significant chuck of Antisemitism roaming through the country in the wake of the Nazi Germany movement (not dissimilar to the ‘America First’ MAGA movement and hence why many or most Eastern European Jewish immigrants at the time changed their last name)!!!
Right, wrong, or indifferent as to how Israel was created, the Jewish people and furthermore, the Israeli society is NOT to blame! Those Jews who had nowhere to go…what were they supposed to do? Feel? Say? “Thanks, but no thanks. I don’t want to impose on others in the Middle East, I’ll just spend the rest of my life searching for a safe haven in hopes a Nazi isn’t lingering around, waiting to kill me.” Get my point? Of course I feel for the Palestinians who at the time felt their world was turned upside down as well. Blame the governments not the people.
Piker’s points have merit towards a discussion/debate but his phrasing IS reckless…and he’s not an idiot…he knows it too. He’s stirring! The Far Left is Anti Israel for the wrong reasons and the Far Right is Pro Israel for the wrong reasons. All of US in between seem to get left out in the cold.
The Far-Left claim themselves ‘Social Justice Warriors’ and while honorably in support of the necessary freedom for the innocent people of Gaza, seem to just the same, discard the innocent Israelis and conveniently forget Oct 7 ever occurred in the first place.
“From the River to the Sea,’ which we saw chanted by young extremists over the last few years does NOT mean “Free Palestine.” It means to wipe Israel off the map…literally. In case anyone in the community doesn’t understand the context to that phrase. In fact, it means to wipe any nation off the map when used towards them.
To be Anti-Israel in its entirety…IS…to be Antisemitic! Just like if I were to be Anti-Palestine in its entirely…I’d therefore be Islamophobic or Anti-Muslim…obv something I’m not. The vast majority of Americans (both parties alike) are Pro Israel the nation and its people, believing its right to exist at least as a nation if not as a Jewish nation (although as a Jewish individual, I do take issue with Piker’s assertion that believing its right to exist as a Jewish nation is equivalent to “Liberal Nazism”).
Further from the truth when we know Israel’ society is highly diverse. It’s rather instead, represented as a Jewish society in honor of long being a safe haven for the Jewish people worldwide (although Netanyahu now complicates that long held vision).
In conjunction with that, the vast majority are also Anti-Netanyahu and his extremist government. The majority are Pro the Palestinian people and a free Gaza region while also being vehemently Anti-Hamas. That should ALL coexist! However, we don’t really make it that cohesive for ourselves do we?!?
Now, the Far-Right are Pro Israel for the wrong reasons. One, they align with Netanyahu’ vision and/or the MAGA wing in Congress see their aligning with Israel as an opportunity to isolate the Democratic Party and attempt to establish them as Antisemitic (even though they could care less themselves).
Another faction of the Far-Right claims themselves Pro Israel not due to any sense of Pro-Jewish identity. But due to their extremist Christian views, thinking Jerusalem is where the second coming will arrive to take all ‘the good Christians with him’ when the world comes to an end and that Israel has to be kept alive and kicking in connection to that theory…only then, when Jesus comes back, does he leave behind all the Jews (even though he was Jewish himself 🤔). Both extremist ideologies on both sides are crazy…obv!!!
But they’re ideologies we have to recognize actually exist unfortunately. This is one of the MOST necessary conversations our party has to have with each other and an issue we must confront. The sooner the better, otherwise we give the GOP ample opportunity to seize the narrative and win!
Think of the majority of our candidates who have won and by significant margins. Spanberger, Sherrill, Shapiro, Moore, Suozzi, etc. Think of those who Hopium are currently supporting! Talarico, Ossoff, Cooper, etc. ALL Left of Center to Practical Progressive whom are ALL Pro Israel the nation and its people/Pro Gaza and its people…Anti Netanyahu/Anti Hamas!!! You know…like most Americans, including even most young people!
We should yearn for Israel to acquire new leadership that inspires like that of Golda Mayer and also yearn for Palestine to acquire new leadership that represents their majority rather than allows for Hamas to walk all over them. More importantly, we should yearn for a two-state solution…which is factually…and feasibly…the MOST diplomatic solution in our modern world.
Do I think Piker and perhaps even El Sayed fully comprehends the nuance of all of this?!? Unfortunately, I don’t have confidence either of them do. Piker’s laziness in shelving Oct 7 to make bigger point is counterintuitive and misinformed. “Oct 7…smeventh! We have bigger issues now!” That’s how that comes across, period! That’s lol the GOP saying “Jan 6? Over and done! Move on!” Same thing! What about McMorrow? Does she see the bigger picture? Most likely yes.
Nevertheless, these conversations must be had within our circles especially if we are going to become the ‘big tent’ party we seek to be. Yes, we’re winning, gaining, flipping and it’s greatly encouraging to see. However, this issue is a shadow hovering in the background and one that will need to be addressed in due time (starting now). The Republicans twist themselves into pretzels enough trying to defend Trump and the indefensible. Let us not succumb to the same pathetic fate without historical context, nuanced debate, and so forth.
We need to draw a concise and succinct line in the sand starting yesterday! Antisemitism…wrong! Islamophobia…wrong! Netanyahu…wrong! Hamas…wrong! Israel the nation and its people…right! Gaza the region and its people…right! Two state solution…right!
If one were to deny Israel’s existence to the most Progressive Jewish American…they would take issue!!! To deny Israel’s government is one thing. To deny the nation’ existence at all is a whole other thing especially today because there’s a whole civilization of Israelis!!!
Most of them hate Netanyahu but love their country. Most Americans hate Trump but love America. Most Russians hate Putin but love Russia. Most Iranians hate their regime but love their nation. As a party I really feel we have to be on the same page with this. The common denominator here as it relates to what the problem is…are the governments!!! NOT the people!
Let us not give them what ‘they want’ and become the bad guys ourselves too. Now, if I was a congressman, to all of that I’d say…I yield the floor 🤣🙏✌️.
I will work to come to a greater understanding of all this. Thanks everyone for weighing in. Two initial points - I don't like the legitimization of anti-Zionism, which I consider to be extreme, borderline genocidal view; and to downplay Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah's genocidal intent in Israel is just ignorant.
Finally, I think this failed war has changed everything, and will be entering a new period in our relationship to the Middle East, including Israel. What that means I don't know but that Bibi-Trump managed to make Iran stronger not weaker in the region suggests both should go.
💯 and may both America and Israel stand on the global stage with respect once again in our not too distant future 🙏/
Simon, I felt I had to share this with you. I was speaking earlier about these very same issues with a friend of mine who lives in Michigan. He’s around 30 and is a progressive Democrat (although he had a strong appreciation for both Biden and Harris as well). We agreed on our shared outlook towards the MI Senate race. However, he brought up another point that I found both alarming yet, informative.
He said there is a large Anti-Israel sentiment sweeping across the younger generations (right, wrong, or indifferent as to their reasoning). We both agreed that when Trump goes, ultimately so does the MAGA movement because he IS the movement. However, we also agreed the movement will attempt to shape shift.
How? We’re not sure but it wouldn’t be surprising if the GOP chooses to focus far more on the ‘America First’ movement similar to that of Charlie Kirk or MTG, Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, etc. Obv ‘America First’ only works if it’s not at the expense of severe isolationism which unfortunately, many younger voters (young men in particular) seem very misinformed/uninformed about.
So my friend posed the following theory…Assuming God willing, that both Vance and Rubio are too attached to Trump’ failed legacy to win nor even achieve the nomination in 2028…it doesn’t seem likely the GOP will magically pull themselves out from under the MAGA or MAGA adjacent spell so soon and say…put up the likes of Kinzinger (who likely wouldn’t even run as a Republican today anyway).
Though on its face, this may sound outlandish, it’s plausible just the same as we’ve known to now expect the unexpected…it IS foreseeable however, that we could watch a Newsom vs Tucker 2028 election come to fruition. Or Mark Kelly vs Tucker, or similar/someone like him.
Tucker is a fool but not ‘dumb.’ He’s an effective opportunist who perhaps has a little more leverage than Vance right now, being on the outside of all of this looking in. My friend expressed a concern that someone like Tucker could ascend to the nomination, riding high on an Anti-Israel, America First platform separately from Trump’s boisterous tactics.
Against Newsom who’s Pro Israel (in the practical way being he’s against Netanyahu but does not have an annihilating viewpoint towards Israel, all of which is where I too stand), my friend fears Tucker or someone like him could sway enough young men towards the GOP.
Now obv, this is all too far out, unpredictable, arguably not worth expending much energy on. Frankly, I think the likes of both Newsom and Kelly have the skill, intellect, and keen awareness to outpace nearly ANY GOP contender with messaging and connection even in spite of our party’s own flaws.
I say the same for Shapiro too (even in spite his being Jewish which as a Jewish person myself, understands that for my community, ascending to the Presidency is a difficult feat in a very Christian centric nation).
Plus, any Jewish voters who happened to vote for Trump this last time around certainly wouldn’t this time around if our theory is the kind of isolated stance the next GOP candidate were to take. Yet this speaks to a larger issue which is the challenge of courting back young men into our coalition!
We don’t want to be in a position in which we think to ourselves “well, more women vote anyway and we have more young women on our side so we can manage in the margins.” That mentality obv would prove detrimental because this generation of young men IS sway-able (at least partially).
Hence why I respect the way Newsom, Kelly, Pete B, President Obama, Kinzinger, Scott Galloway, even Kamala, Senator Slotkin, and both Governors Spanberger and Sherrill ALL contribute to this social crisis which provides us, the pro democracy movement a real thriving opportunity…should we seize it without too much nuanced debate over being ‘offensive’ and other minutia (hence, much of what drew people away from our party these prior elections).
Anyway, I understand the scenario I pose seems far-fetched but we’ve experienced a landscape now which tells us…unfortunately, it’s not as far-fetched as we’d like to think. Any feedback on how we can attack these matters offensively as early and as effectively as possible so that we set ourselves up for success beyond the midterms as much as possible?!?
Thank you again for your time and your tireless leadership. You’ve no clue how much I value this community and your newsletters. Alongside Marc Elias/Brian Tyler Cohen, Heather Cox Richardson, this community provides the most significant data and insight possible and is undoubtedly a key factor in our recent successes 🙏✌️💕.
Completely agree and should have added that to my sentiment. Although, I think you knew I felt the same way.
Thanks for this, Blake. A few weeks ago, I had a student in my office who was talking just to talk (I teach Spanish, so he drops by a few times a month for conversational practice) and he started saying something that verged on antisemitism. I broke into English and told him that I thought he needed to be careful to separate political criticism from the disparagement of an entire religion, but hesitated to get too far into it because I'm a professor at a public university. He took in what I said, but I have been sensing the rise in antisemitism on campus ever since the Oct. 7 attacks. Some of these podcasts are fairly subtle; others are not at all, but they're all toxic. It's alarming.
I watched the online forum last night for the MI Senate candidates, hosted by Statewide Indivisible Michigan. Stevens did not show up, so it was just McMorrow and El-Sayed. I was surprised at the emoji trolling (it was Zoom) that the El-Sayed fans did, like snakes, rats, etc every time McMorrow began to speak. There were some Israel flags among the snakes and rats, too.
This might not be fair to El-Sayed, but the behavior of his supporters has affected my opinion of his candidacy.
My point exactly. Candidates should be keen to who they share their circle with, who they promote, and while primaries are competitive…they should take stock in how their supporters react/behave towards their opponents (within the same party) who are aligned in the overarching goal…THEN attack the poor behavior the way Obama and McCain would do with each other’s supporters. We either revert back to that decorum and red line amidst starting a new, or we dwell in that ugly division that could end up costing us as much as it does the GOP.
I was real impressed with El-Sayed after seeing an interview with him.
He may be impressive but we need a candidate who can win ‘statewide.’ Especially in the swingiest of swing states such as MI. In my view, McMorrow has that ability more than El-Sayed. Not to mention, and I say this as a man…we need to significantly even out the scales and push more women into positions of leadership. Maybe I was ahead of my time when I was a kid but I’ve long supported more female centric leadership in the political realm than most of my male peers. Hence why I was proud to witness the rise of both Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer, and why I was proud to be apart of Hopium when Elyssa Slotkin, Abigail Spanberger, and Mikie Sherrill all got elected by significant margins. And that’s just the beginning!!! Fortunately for McMorrow, she has both elements working for her (the second being her electability).
I have, as a woman, been volunteering for local, state and national women candidates for 26 years. I still like El-Sayed. P.S. Was a volunteer for Harris and Spanberger also.
I respect that. El-Sayed may have potential. I won’t deny that. However, it’s one thing if he went on Hassan Piker’s podcast to have a discussion. It’s another thing when one invites someone to campaign with/for them. It indicates an aligned ideology. Hassan Piker’s rhetoric is dangerous…for both Jewish and Muslim voters (even if they themselves don’t know it). When the man minimized Oct 7 by stating ‘Hamas is better than Israel,’ it doesn’t matter what context it was under. It was reckless and likely purposely so. Someone like Piker likely knew exactly what he was doing when he made those comments. Oct 7 and Gaza may differ in total casualties but the horror of both are equivalent and always will be. Minimizing one over the other risks increasing both Antisemitism and Islamophobia and potentially normalizing it if we let it fester. El-Sayed made an irresponsible decision in my view to platform him in such a way voters would be prone to associate Piker’s ideology with his. I suspect McMorrow is keen to that. Hence, why she is still polling highest in the primary race. Hopefully, it stays that way.
I’m not familiar with Hassan Piker other than to see him interviewed on another Substack. I don’t keep up with all this. If I did I would weigh 300 lbs from lack of movement and have no life. News digestion is limited to 2 hours per day with weekends optional.
Have a good week.
Deb, I applaud you for phone banking! How do you do it without a phone?
In many of the phone banks I've participated in, the organizers have used Scale to Win. This is a dialer that automatically connects you to voters. Once you're done speaking with a voter, you can click a button that moves you to the next call. If you sign up for a Virginia redistricting phone bank, you will get training on the dialer. The organizers will show you what it is and exactly what you should do on it.
Give it a try! I much prefer Scale to Win to the Open VPB dialer in which you have to manually call people.
Simon, if the GOP is starting to spend big money now, does it mean the Democrats need to start doing the same rather than waiting? They clearly need to start framing things early. That is what the GOP seem to believe.
Thanks to everyone doing the phone bank tonight. I will sign up for next Thursday. Tonight isn't possible. I do have 10 postcards I'm working on for voter outreach to AZ CD6.
Simon, I don't know what you ate for breakfast, or did you take a trip to Krypton?? This is really special!
And, I definitely agree with you, that the way to get rid of Trump is not by the 25th Ammendment or by Impeachment. If the Maga Republicans don't change now, they will let Trump continue to destroy our Country. We don't know how Trump is going to Fall, but He will, without a doubt!!
I will make my calls to the Four Rs'. They've had too much Vacation time!!
We were out on the overpass in eastern Iowa yesterday with signs to drivers below on Interstate 80 reading “Stop war crimes” and “Remove 47” when we noticed that we were receiving more (four- or five-fold) middle finger salutes compared to recent overpass events.
Sure, this could be random variation, but the vibe felt angrier. Less “there you go again you nutty libtards, I’m gonna flip you off” and more “shut the f**k up, I don’t want to think about this right now.”
It’s certainly possible that I’m imagining the difference, but there’s not a lot else to do when waving from an overpass for 2 hours except watch the expressions on the faces zooming past beneath, so I’ve had a lot of practice.
I have a MAGA family member who told me that she has stopped following the news. I think the cognitive dissonance got too stressful, which I view as success! There is now an opening in her mind since Fox isn't on all day long. The drivers in Iowa might be experiencing similar amounts of psychological distress. (To which I say, "Well, welcome to the club!!!")
Thanks, all. I am finishing up my VA postcards, and though it may be close, I am optimistic that we'll prevail there. Making the daily calls, and I think we're getting through. Sen. Kim used a recent town hall to address this issue head on, and has called for Orange's removal. Keep making the calls, and keep going!
You know, as I think about this, I can't help but devolve a little bit into cliche' and platitude, which I know can feel a bit trite right now and seem insufficient to the scope of the moment...but I hope you'll hear me out.
I'm actually developing a very hopeful outlook about the future because my studies of history, and of the human condition in general (I'm a bit of a nerd for psychology and sociology) tells me something profound about times of crisis: the crisis itself always has within it the capacity to pull from you what was already there that you have never needed to access in the same way that is equal to the challenge.
In other words, Trump is nothing short of the biggest, broadest, most consequential catastrophe created in and unleashed by American society....for both the whole of the American population and the world at large. Nobody else even comes close if you consider the powers at his current disposal with today's technology and interconnected, interdependent world, although I say that with all due deference to the atrocities carried out against minority subsets of our society in the past and can understand how as of yet, this doesn't reach that level of malevolence in raw outcome....but given time and another election victory or two, and that level of malevolence will be unleashed upon pretty much ALL of us, and that is unprecedented in our history, and the negative geopolitical tsunami due to our position in the world at large would wash over all of us again for a double punch. So, what we are dealing with is very grim indeed.
But...it seems to me like there is a moment of profound opportunity at our fingertips. This problem didn't happen overnight....it was a slow growing potential that most of us didn't see coming until it was at our doorstep. It was a product of hundreds of issues that were either ignored, or not dealt with sufficiently over many decades.
1. It was white people living in silos and not understanding the different America our communities of color had to contend with and slowing down or resisting social and economic reforms that could have created a better and more equitable playing field due to our own discomfort from feeling the demographic shifts approach the majority-minority tipping point.
2. It was Democrats wanting to govern in good faith (not to say every individual person in the D party has been altruistic and honorable in every way...but our coalition is structurally inclined toward wanting to accomplish things through government spending/regulations/legislation that will improve the whole of society) so much, that they continued to let Republicans shift the philosophical and ideological overton window to the right a little every day without ever drawing the appropriate red lines, recognizing when it was the right time to stop the train and fight for the principle rather than take a modest improvement in practice while actually losing the debate and weakening our brand, people's understanding of what we stand for, their belief in our strength and scrappiness to fight for what we need rather than accept what we're offered if it's shitty.....our hearts have largely been in the right place, but we've been given far too little credit for the good we've done post cold-war because we've allowed our rhetorical response to the Republican's recalcitrance, zombie-like adherence to repeatedly failed dogma, and gross incompetence for the last 40 years be weak and mushy out of our desire to cooperate under whatever circumstances we find ourselves in the name of doing some public good. I give us high marks for our good intentions and good works....but feel like we've been very slow in recognizing the nature of the threat the Republicans (not just Trump) were becoming long before 2016, and how we were playing into their information home turf constantly, even when we managed to win power.
3. It was Republicans creating this creepy compliance based and hierarchical ecosystem that groomed people for office and the judiciary, and created this disgusting bullshit based culture inside the coalition that never got any outside information, and didn't pay any attention to outcomes or data....their bosses decided long ago what policies they should advocate for, and it didn't fucking matter what the results of those policies were. That gross and yucky cult like herd that they created was giving me the creeps in the goddamn 90s, and it just kept getting worse. So, when their party was overtaken by a con artist using right wing nationalism, nativism, and isolationism to gin up their base and succeeded in winning their presidential nomination content in 2016, of course they all fell in line and decided to "ride the tiger"....anything short of compliance had been drilled out of them years before. The few that spoke up or took any kind of a stand without voluntarily leaving the party did so in the weakest most inconsequential way possible and were kicked out of the party within 2 - 4 years for doing it. So we've been dealing with them watching and abetting the creation of this catastrophe while constantly gaslighting us that it's not that bad, and that we're all a bunch of overreacting overdramatic fragile liberal alarmists, and that has created a permission structure for millions of Americans to look the other way for far too long and assume everything was still normal, just with a more colorful personality behind the presidential seal.
And, any number of other smaller problems helped create this gargantuan one we're in now. But...it seems to me like the only way to the other side is for white people to finally get a grip that our majority status will eventually go away, and for us to get a true glimpse of the reality that being a person of color, or a woman, or somewhere other than what we've always considered normal on the sexual preference & gender identity spectrum, or a person with a disability, or a person suffering with treatable but stigmatized mental health issues....are living in a very different country than those who fit nicely into the American as Apple Pie portrait we hold in our heads.
And for Democrats to learn that sometimes we have to win the rhetorical and philosophical debate BEFORE we compromise, and it needs to be on the BIG IDEAS, not just the nickel and dime shit in the daily scrum, because if we don't, we get no credit for any good we accomplish and Republicans receive no political punishment for their failures. Most importantly, if we don't learn to do a better job winning these big philosophical debates, the American people will never pressure the Republicans to modernize and change their failed ideology in ways that aren't completely destructive to our democracy, our standing in the world, and our collective well being.
And finally, Republicans have to learn that you can be part of a political coalition and still have some flexibility to exercise your own judgment when something feels wrong, and that it's worth it to do that even if you have to find a new line of work afterward...this absolute compliance cult shit is simply unsustainable for a liberal democracy, and it's not even good for the oligarchs in the end....it's not fun to be a billionaire in Russia where you're expected to just let Putin do whatever he wants at the drop of a hat with your assets or else have the full might of the Russian Government come in a destroy your life and take everything away from you.....they may not realize it yet, but our billionaire class would be a lot better off having their business a little more regulated and paying higher taxes, but enjoying freedom and the quality of life than can ONLY come from a thriving society....lot's more fun to be successful in a thriving, innovative, vibrant society than a shithole full of people ready to come to your door with pitchforks any moment the police state is asleep.
Well my friends.....the scale of Trump's disastrous greed, corruption, incompetence, being compromised in whatever ways he clearly is by hostile foreign governments, and probably malignant oligarchs here in the US....in short, his OLYMPIC SCALE FUCKUPS....the consequences of all of that have within them the capacity to wake up ENOUGH white people (especially men), ENOUGH Democratic Electeds, and ENOUGH Republican Electeds, to meet this moment and meaningfully change these dynamics that have led to this moment and stabilize our society for growth, prosperity, success, good will, leadership, and innovation for several decades to come....the work will never be over, but we are due for a whole of society growth and maturity spurt after a very long and costly adolescence.
I still believe in the potential greatness of this country and the inherent goodness of its people as long as they are given the right information (why we have to start taking the philosophical and rhetorical battle more seriously), a fair shot (why white people have to come to grips with the structural inequities that exist and stop resisting leveling the playing field, and recognize that it will benefit them as much as it benefits our fellow Americans in minority communities), and good options (which is why Republicans have to snap out of this weird thing they do and modernize to be an acceptable modern alternative). I think we can do it....keep the faith and one step at a time. Love to you all.
i just think the dems need to keep telling the american people over and over again what dems have done for them: social security, medicare, obamacare, 40 hr work week, the chips act, etc etc. the repubs just dont do things for people. unless they are wealthy or billionaires. americans dont even know this. and simons great job chart under dems vs repubs. we need to advertise our wins! beat our chests! let people know. just a gosh darn list of our best stuff. over and over again.
Spot on! This is so important. We’re fighting so many misperceptions, so much propaganda.
can simon or someone come up with an historic comprehensive list of dem great things for america??? or maybe it already exists.
Thoughtful analysis, PianoMan. As to the creepy cult-like behavior of Republicans in Congress (and perhaps other MAGA devotees), I've long felt that the segment of the population who has joined this group must have some inherent differences from those who consider themselves Independent or Democrat. Perhaps this is best encapsulated by the metaphor of herding sheep vs herding cats. I'm not a historian, so I'd be really interested to know whether other countries that lost - or nearly lost - their democracies had similar kinds of divides within their populations that contributed to their political slide toward authoritarianism. I suspect that 'follower' (or 'joiner') psychology has played a significant role during early human evolution, and perhaps even more recently, although it seems maladaptive in the current geopolitical climate.