I LOVE your insight, Simon, because you reflect the true nature of the political culture in America today. You highlight the inside-outside approach of progressives winning down ballot mayoral races and the important referenda votes, which point to an energized left-of-center tilt in America today
The sweep of the "Four Corners" along with the election of Georgia Senators Warnock and Ossoff portend a deepening of the blue hue in these five states, virtually locking in a predictable Democratic victory in presidential elections. ALL OF THE factors point to a larger context, which yo fail to see ...
Democratic Capitalism is the overarching movement which demands that our economy follow principles establaished in our democracy; "Bidenomics" is guiding capitasilm to a more just and perfect union. Democratic Capitalism demands greater pay equity beteeen genders and races. Democratic Capitalism demands that capitalism provides sustainable systems trespect the Earth and our collective future. Democratic Capitalism demnds a fair and livable wage.
Of course, Democratic Capitalism in only in the minds and visions of the very few of us who understand the failures of market capitalism, and desperately seek for a simle, clear and concise alternative, and thsi is ... Democratic Capitalism
I am encouraged by the proud patriots who are really putting in the work. All of us are doing myriad things to spread the word about President Biden doing a good job. If I may, I would like to get your, and others' opinions on something. When we look at what is happening in Wisconsin and the threat to impeach Judge Janet, I see the Dem chair, Ben Winkler, everywhere. He, and the Dem party, have raised the awareness of Wisconsin voters and now there seem to be cracks in the R effort. So my question is about the effectiveness of our national Dem chair, Jaime Harrison. I never see him on TV. Do you think there is a missed opportunity for him to really rally Dems everywhere to help us "get to 55"? I don't want to be unfair, but we sure could use his voice.
Annette. I do not have access to much in the way of Wisconsin news. What are the cracks in the effort that you are seeing? I looked briefly yesterday to see the state of where things are and could only find reports of the broad outlines. We need a Ben Winkler clone machine!
Here is a clip of the Rachel Maddow show from yesterday. Basically Ben explains that already one legislator has said he won't vote for impeachment and others are silent waiting for the voter reaction....and there is much voter reaction! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY6K5l9RkQE
I've been following Charlie Sykes at The Bulwark, he's a former WI talk radio guy who has deep history with the WI Republican Party. He's convinced that they've gone thoroughly insane and will stop at nothing to hold onto that gerrymander. As a former Republican myself, I really appreciate that perspective and the knowledge of the different players' motivations.
Hey Annette! I’m certainly not Simon, but I’ve given a lot of thought to exactly what you’re asking here. First of all, we need to acknowledge that Ben Winkler is a Unicorn and a superstar… He is a generationally, talented, political operative, who just happens to be in exactly the right place exactly when we need him there. However, I don’t think that Jamie Harrison is sitting in a position with the opportunity to do what Ben is doing right now, and what I mean by that is that voters have a general dislike of MAGA… But they are the most mobilized against MAGA when there is a very tangible and specific threat that they are posing, especially when it’s tied to a very specific policy that they understand… The most potent lately has been abortion, and or a willingness to manipulate voters rights and wills to get an unpopular outcome accomplished. It’s much easier right now for Ben Winkler to spread the word of the very dangerous thing they are trying to do in Wisconsin because it is a blatant attempt to subvert the votes that have already been cast in order to allow a very unpopular outcome to take place, And simply render the voters of that state irrelevant. At the national level, which would be Jamie Harrison‘s jurisdiction, there’s plenty of bad stuff that the Republicans are up to, but it’s more esoteric, more big picture, less easy to pin down to one specific thing that is as potent as what they’re currently trying to do in Wisconsin. Therefore, we can sew a general sense of displeasure with Republicans nationally, but to mobilize public outrage against them, we need a more specific threat with a potential deadline. So, in this case, I don’t necessarily think that Jamie Harrison is not trying to be out there, but rather Ben Winkler is using his extraordinary talent at a moment when he has a very specific threat to alert people to, and people can understand the nature of that threat very well, and also understand that time is of the essence… I believe we will begin a national conversation similar to this very soon relative to the government shut down that the freedom caucus in the house is going to try to impose upon us… I hope all of this makes sense. I just think we have to continue to mobilize in general all around the nation, but supersize our engagement in targeted areas when they are engaged in something particularly egregious like what they’re trying to do in Wisconsin… And that is why Ben Winkler is everywhere right now… Because his jurisdiction is where the biggest fire that needs to be put out right now is located. Cheers!
Agree-locals knowledge and a community members passion wins out. Good discussion though. I’ve wondered same about DNC but realize now we needed more frontline patriots leading the charge. And we needed more “Simons and David’s “ to educate us where our work and $$ are most effective NOW. Definitely fun to be part of the Hopium Cavalry surging to where most needed! And then WINNING!
Chris Hayes on MSNBC today spoke specifically about the special elections winning streak Democrats have been on. It was like listening to Simon speak about these successes 🙌🏻!!!!!!Yay
Always heartened to read your data-based posts and analysis, Simon - so inspiring and encouraging. Thank you.
I suggested yesterday that Joe Biden has gone far beyond being labeled a good President. In my view, he’s been an extraordinary President, one of the best in modern times. This morning I read Molly-Jong Fast’s piece in Vanity Fair which made a similar argument. She writes, “'Do you want my most subversive hot take?' a friend recently asked me over dinner. I nodded, as a writer can never say no to a question like that. 'Biden is the best president of our lifetime.' They might be right.”
Too many in the media consistently underestimate Joe Biden, but he’s absolutely earned the highest superlatives possible. He’s passed historic legislation, brought the economy back from the brink, and worked tirelessly to protect freedom and democracy at home and abroad, all while acting with quiet grace, inherent kindness and genuine decency. That’s something we proud patriots have strong reason to get louder about.
Every line of this is especially helpful sifting and clarifying of actual data and events. At time I lament finding this information almost slippery to retain. That’s because it is wide, deep and sprawling, rather like being accustomed to watching surface of the ocean, but now being shown the powerful undercurrents. Simon, Tom Bonier and Joe Trippi did/doing real work of mining for data and getting us to real facts. May all of us power forward. 💪👏
How do elections for state offices affect your thinking? There are really important elections in November 2023 in Virginia that will determine the control of both the Virginia House of Delegates and the Senate. Maintaining control of at least one of these bodies will protect voting rights and access to reproductive health services.
My take is that down ballot races at the state level play a huge part in the data that he is referencing. We’ve made those elections very central to the cause over the last year and a half, and the Democratic grassroots has done a spectacular job of targeting their efforts to the most crucial and competitive down ballot state level races around the country, leading up to and ever since the 2022 midterms. The fact that we keep kicking their asses everywhere that is winnable is part of why I am so optimistic in spite of our underperformance in some traditional National markers and metrics that feel out of date to me, or at least feel like they are not doing an adequate job of capturing the big picture currently. There’s going to be a hell of a lot of grassroots firepower in Virginia, and it won’t surprise me in the least if we expand our state Senate majority and flip the house of delegates back. It’s not a guarantee, but it won’t surprise me a bit just based on the extraordinary get out the vote efforts that have been taking place from the Democratic grassroots all around the country and how intelligently and strategically focused they have been in the most important elections in the most competitive places.
And now let’s rally the troops to win the critical Virginia General Assembly elections culminating on November 7th! I just wrote about one candidate in a critical and inspiring race who would make a great guest on your program, Russet Perry: https://open.substack.com/pub/kindler/p/a-marquee-race-in-virginia-the-woman?r=f5mz&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post. I’d be more than happy to suggest some additional guests for you to feature. We need to make this one more Democratic success story - or lose the last state in the South where womens’ healthcare rights remain protected.
I appreciate the amount of data you include in these post. Honestly, this is my first year to start learning about political events happening in our country. I used to just ignore it and go on about my life expecting things to just fall into place. It can all be so overwhelming to me. However between Hopium Chronicles and my friends blog Sowing Hope, you all have really helped me adjust and catch up on everything.
Living in an area where there can be quite a few MAGA extremist is very disheartening, but the numbers are there in clear view. Things are changing for the better and the future is looking bright if we can continue this trend under Democratic leadership. I recently started writing here to take my years of leadership knowledge to help rid the world of toxic work culture. I would like to take what I know about leading and business to learn more about upcoming candidates in elections to help understand decisions or thought processes that they make. Thank you for your knowledge. You have earned my paid subscription.
This is really encouraging thank you Simon! Will you be doing some hard hitting pieces and talks about Virginia? I keep hearing about progressives ringing the alarm bells that the volunteers and money haven’t arrived there yet like they did in Wisconsin and Ohio. I know many in the Hopium community are involved but sounds like there’s a lot of work to do!
I so desperately need this place of cautious optimism. Sometimes the Trump phenomenon depresses me to the point of tears. I don’t expect victory to be easy. I’m willing to help at 75. I am giving to candidates across the country in local races as well as national-as I am able. I write postcards. I talk to my friends. I post maybe too much on social media about politics but I don’t really know any other ways to repeat our messaging. Thank you for starting another community based in truth. I am also a medias touch patron.
This is so encouraging! Movement Voter Project is on the ground in all of those key states and battleground districts supporting over 400 local grassroots groups working to engage their community members and get them vote. I’m excited to work with them and with everyone here to make sure voter turnout continues to rise.
I LOVE your insight, Simon, because you reflect the true nature of the political culture in America today. You highlight the inside-outside approach of progressives winning down ballot mayoral races and the important referenda votes, which point to an energized left-of-center tilt in America today
The sweep of the "Four Corners" along with the election of Georgia Senators Warnock and Ossoff portend a deepening of the blue hue in these five states, virtually locking in a predictable Democratic victory in presidential elections. ALL OF THE factors point to a larger context, which yo fail to see ...
Democratic Capitalism is the overarching movement which demands that our economy follow principles establaished in our democracy; "Bidenomics" is guiding capitasilm to a more just and perfect union. Democratic Capitalism demands greater pay equity beteeen genders and races. Democratic Capitalism demands that capitalism provides sustainable systems trespect the Earth and our collective future. Democratic Capitalism demnds a fair and livable wage.
Of course, Democratic Capitalism in only in the minds and visions of the very few of us who understand the failures of market capitalism, and desperately seek for a simle, clear and concise alternative, and thsi is ... Democratic Capitalism
"We are voting for the country we are building, not the country that existed in the past."
Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA, Pittsburgh area)
I am encouraged by the proud patriots who are really putting in the work. All of us are doing myriad things to spread the word about President Biden doing a good job. If I may, I would like to get your, and others' opinions on something. When we look at what is happening in Wisconsin and the threat to impeach Judge Janet, I see the Dem chair, Ben Winkler, everywhere. He, and the Dem party, have raised the awareness of Wisconsin voters and now there seem to be cracks in the R effort. So my question is about the effectiveness of our national Dem chair, Jaime Harrison. I never see him on TV. Do you think there is a missed opportunity for him to really rally Dems everywhere to help us "get to 55"? I don't want to be unfair, but we sure could use his voice.
Annette. I do not have access to much in the way of Wisconsin news. What are the cracks in the effort that you are seeing? I looked briefly yesterday to see the state of where things are and could only find reports of the broad outlines. We need a Ben Winkler clone machine!
Here is a clip of the Rachel Maddow show from yesterday. Basically Ben explains that already one legislator has said he won't vote for impeachment and others are silent waiting for the voter reaction....and there is much voter reaction! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY6K5l9RkQE
That is encouraging. I hadn’t heard that. Its all hands on deck with phone banking to put the pressure on.
I've been following Charlie Sykes at The Bulwark, he's a former WI talk radio guy who has deep history with the WI Republican Party. He's convinced that they've gone thoroughly insane and will stop at nothing to hold onto that gerrymander. As a former Republican myself, I really appreciate that perspective and the knowledge of the different players' motivations.
Hey Annette! I’m certainly not Simon, but I’ve given a lot of thought to exactly what you’re asking here. First of all, we need to acknowledge that Ben Winkler is a Unicorn and a superstar… He is a generationally, talented, political operative, who just happens to be in exactly the right place exactly when we need him there. However, I don’t think that Jamie Harrison is sitting in a position with the opportunity to do what Ben is doing right now, and what I mean by that is that voters have a general dislike of MAGA… But they are the most mobilized against MAGA when there is a very tangible and specific threat that they are posing, especially when it’s tied to a very specific policy that they understand… The most potent lately has been abortion, and or a willingness to manipulate voters rights and wills to get an unpopular outcome accomplished. It’s much easier right now for Ben Winkler to spread the word of the very dangerous thing they are trying to do in Wisconsin because it is a blatant attempt to subvert the votes that have already been cast in order to allow a very unpopular outcome to take place, And simply render the voters of that state irrelevant. At the national level, which would be Jamie Harrison‘s jurisdiction, there’s plenty of bad stuff that the Republicans are up to, but it’s more esoteric, more big picture, less easy to pin down to one specific thing that is as potent as what they’re currently trying to do in Wisconsin. Therefore, we can sew a general sense of displeasure with Republicans nationally, but to mobilize public outrage against them, we need a more specific threat with a potential deadline. So, in this case, I don’t necessarily think that Jamie Harrison is not trying to be out there, but rather Ben Winkler is using his extraordinary talent at a moment when he has a very specific threat to alert people to, and people can understand the nature of that threat very well, and also understand that time is of the essence… I believe we will begin a national conversation similar to this very soon relative to the government shut down that the freedom caucus in the house is going to try to impose upon us… I hope all of this makes sense. I just think we have to continue to mobilize in general all around the nation, but supersize our engagement in targeted areas when they are engaged in something particularly egregious like what they’re trying to do in Wisconsin… And that is why Ben Winkler is everywhere right now… Because his jurisdiction is where the biggest fire that needs to be put out right now is located. Cheers!
Agree-locals knowledge and a community members passion wins out. Good discussion though. I’ve wondered same about DNC but realize now we needed more frontline patriots leading the charge. And we needed more “Simons and David’s “ to educate us where our work and $$ are most effective NOW. Definitely fun to be part of the Hopium Cavalry surging to where most needed! And then WINNING!
Chris Hayes on MSNBC today spoke specifically about the special elections winning streak Democrats have been on. It was like listening to Simon speak about these successes 🙌🏻!!!!!!Yay
This is fantastic analysis Simon - I just shared to my FB page. Thank you!
Great analysis! Glad I subscribed!
Let's keep doing the work to win in Kentucky, Louisiana, Virginia, and maybe even Mississippi!
https://events.democrats.org/event/560970/
Always heartened to read your data-based posts and analysis, Simon - so inspiring and encouraging. Thank you.
I suggested yesterday that Joe Biden has gone far beyond being labeled a good President. In my view, he’s been an extraordinary President, one of the best in modern times. This morning I read Molly-Jong Fast’s piece in Vanity Fair which made a similar argument. She writes, “'Do you want my most subversive hot take?' a friend recently asked me over dinner. I nodded, as a writer can never say no to a question like that. 'Biden is the best president of our lifetime.' They might be right.”
Too many in the media consistently underestimate Joe Biden, but he’s absolutely earned the highest superlatives possible. He’s passed historic legislation, brought the economy back from the brink, and worked tirelessly to protect freedom and democracy at home and abroad, all while acting with quiet grace, inherent kindness and genuine decency. That’s something we proud patriots have strong reason to get louder about.
“The Republican Party’s advantage is shrinking in the Electoral College.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/12/briefing/electoral-college-gop-democrats.html?
Every line of this is especially helpful sifting and clarifying of actual data and events. At time I lament finding this information almost slippery to retain. That’s because it is wide, deep and sprawling, rather like being accustomed to watching surface of the ocean, but now being shown the powerful undercurrents. Simon, Tom Bonier and Joe Trippi did/doing real work of mining for data and getting us to real facts. May all of us power forward. 💪👏
How do elections for state offices affect your thinking? There are really important elections in November 2023 in Virginia that will determine the control of both the Virginia House of Delegates and the Senate. Maintaining control of at least one of these bodies will protect voting rights and access to reproductive health services.
My take is that down ballot races at the state level play a huge part in the data that he is referencing. We’ve made those elections very central to the cause over the last year and a half, and the Democratic grassroots has done a spectacular job of targeting their efforts to the most crucial and competitive down ballot state level races around the country, leading up to and ever since the 2022 midterms. The fact that we keep kicking their asses everywhere that is winnable is part of why I am so optimistic in spite of our underperformance in some traditional National markers and metrics that feel out of date to me, or at least feel like they are not doing an adequate job of capturing the big picture currently. There’s going to be a hell of a lot of grassroots firepower in Virginia, and it won’t surprise me in the least if we expand our state Senate majority and flip the house of delegates back. It’s not a guarantee, but it won’t surprise me a bit just based on the extraordinary get out the vote efforts that have been taking place from the Democratic grassroots all around the country and how intelligently and strategically focused they have been in the most important elections in the most competitive places.
We are working on some of these VA campaigns from far away CA-phone banking, texting, fundraising
I very much agree with y that the repudiation of MAGA has Ty come from us. We have to be loud, clear, and fearless.
What a great statement. That pretty much sums it up.
Encouraging and helpful, Simon. For information warriors, here are declarative sentences that occurred to me last night:
Republicans hurt people.
Democrats help people.
... Of course that's just a rough draft, but I think it has potential to contribute to Simon's messaging.
And now let’s rally the troops to win the critical Virginia General Assembly elections culminating on November 7th! I just wrote about one candidate in a critical and inspiring race who would make a great guest on your program, Russet Perry: https://open.substack.com/pub/kindler/p/a-marquee-race-in-virginia-the-woman?r=f5mz&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post. I’d be more than happy to suggest some additional guests for you to feature. We need to make this one more Democratic success story - or lose the last state in the South where womens’ healthcare rights remain protected.
I appreciate the amount of data you include in these post. Honestly, this is my first year to start learning about political events happening in our country. I used to just ignore it and go on about my life expecting things to just fall into place. It can all be so overwhelming to me. However between Hopium Chronicles and my friends blog Sowing Hope, you all have really helped me adjust and catch up on everything.
Living in an area where there can be quite a few MAGA extremist is very disheartening, but the numbers are there in clear view. Things are changing for the better and the future is looking bright if we can continue this trend under Democratic leadership. I recently started writing here to take my years of leadership knowledge to help rid the world of toxic work culture. I would like to take what I know about leading and business to learn more about upcoming candidates in elections to help understand decisions or thought processes that they make. Thank you for your knowledge. You have earned my paid subscription.
This is really encouraging thank you Simon! Will you be doing some hard hitting pieces and talks about Virginia? I keep hearing about progressives ringing the alarm bells that the volunteers and money haven’t arrived there yet like they did in Wisconsin and Ohio. I know many in the Hopium community are involved but sounds like there’s a lot of work to do!
I so desperately need this place of cautious optimism. Sometimes the Trump phenomenon depresses me to the point of tears. I don’t expect victory to be easy. I’m willing to help at 75. I am giving to candidates across the country in local races as well as national-as I am able. I write postcards. I talk to my friends. I post maybe too much on social media about politics but I don’t really know any other ways to repeat our messaging. Thank you for starting another community based in truth. I am also a medias touch patron.
This is so encouraging! Movement Voter Project is on the ground in all of those key states and battleground districts supporting over 400 local grassroots groups working to engage their community members and get them vote. I’m excited to work with them and with everyone here to make sure voter turnout continues to rise.