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Mike Petruska's avatar

The files will be heavily redacted with at least "you know who's" name being blacked out.

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Mike, respectfully, we have no idea what is going to happen next. The emails released last week were devastating for Trump. We now know he lied, and has been covering everything up. It isn't clear that we even need the files any longer. Questions about Russia and Putin and Trump's direct involvement are already on the table. DO NOT TURN WINS INTO LOSSES. We must shed this bad habit.

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Danielle W's avatar

“DO NOT TURN WINS INTO LOSSES. We must shed this bad habit.” Thank you for saying this Simon! After every big, momentum shifting win Dems have, it is immediately followed up by the media & others desperately trying to turn it into a loss. I have never understood this & still don’t today. The election wins 2 weeks ago were HUGE & literally 2 days later, I was already reading nonsense like “well sure Democrats won the elections, and by huge margins, but they’re really in worse shape than before because reasons & because they’ve focused on “woke” things in the past, they’ll probably lose the next elections cause no one wants to hear about using the term Latinx, they want to hear about the economy and well, despite trump’s historic unpopularity & affordability being such an issue, that’s where republicans are just so strong!” It makes zero sense & drives me up the wall. If we want the media to stop this absurd habit, we all need to make more of an effort inside the resistance as well. 👏🫶

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Elizabeth T.'s avatar

Even if the dictator in chief's name is redacted, there will still be plenty of powerful men named. And every one of them needs to face justice.

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Shelley Riskin's avatar

Yes, Elizabeth T. I call him Criminal-in-Chief, but dictator in chief also fits!

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LeslieN's avatar

I call him "TRAITOR"

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MrsCQ's avatar

Also, they can redact all they want, we all know whom they are redacting. We also know the DOJ had many agents redacting names. The MSM will MSM. Yes, they will assist in the coverup, sane wash and make everything Dem a problem for the Dems - even a landslide. But what none of them have been able to do is stop independent media here on Substack. In a sense, Substack has thrived BECAUSE of the MSM.

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Gail Dragoo's avatar

Good morning: i have a question about Project 2025 and the mess the Trump administration has on its hands now. Why did they think their agenda would work when they’ve put unqualified idiots in positions of power? Did they think Americans would be so scared, they would buckle under the chaos?

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ArcticStones's avatar

Unfortunately, not all Trump appointments are idiots. Some of the people he has empowered are, unfortunately, very capable and highly effective Fascists. Russ Vought and Stephen Miller are two examples of this.

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BonMot's avatar

Masterminds. Yes, see "Nuremberg"

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Pamela Frazier's avatar

Yeah but the good thing about Vought and Miller is they don’t strategize around electoral consequences. They just do the things. That’s part of how we get election blowouts in response like happened this month.

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ArcticStones's avatar

True, they "just do things". However, what Vought and Miller are doing has drastically increased Trump’s power, including in arenas that have traditionally been far beyond presidential reach. (News media, universities, leading law firms, Fortune 500 companies...)

It remains an open question how much the MAGA-Republican Party’s catastrophic election results actually weaken Trump and his Regime. Simon continually makes a strong case that it does – which makes me guardedly optimistic.

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Lisa Iannucci's avatar

That's what congressional investigations, legislation and trials are meant to remedy. We need to ensure these things happen! :)

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ArcticStones's avatar

Attorney Pam Bondi and the Justice Department are on it. /s

Oh, snap!

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Thomas's avatar

I view it in terms of destroying the existing "administrative state," and building on the rubble. They seem to have made progress -- with another shutdown looming in January.

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BonMot's avatar

They've been referred to it as "Deep State" and is one of the line items on the "Big Lie" Agenda. Mary Trump, a psychologist, in a recent NYTimes interview characterized her uncle as a "nihilist" who trusts no one, leaves no legacy and believes in "Deep Rubble." Containing the damage is where we find ourselves during this period of American history.

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Danielle W's avatar

Exactly this! This is what I am always saying to people who freak out when Trump/Maga say or try to do something acting like it’s a fait accompli when it’s anything but. These people have no idea what they’re doing, so they’ll never be able to accomplish what they want to. They just won’t, not long term. It’s no different to a CEO at an investment company hiring their nephew who was a film student to be the CFO. Does that EVER work?? I don’t think so, and it isn’t working here either. Are there some dangerous people there with half a brain? Sure. But the whole organization is run & overrun by ignorant fools with zero idea of what they’re doing. Just like a broken clock, they may be right or get a win here or there, but it’s still a broken clock and eventually people won’t put up with this dysfunction. They’re already proving that by the elections 2 weeks ago. Don’t let their bs & bravado fool/scare you. They’re a mess & it will only get worse for them by the time the midterms roll around.

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Susan Dieterlen's avatar

Assuming everyone is secretly on their side and that we'll all be dazzled by their awesomeness seems to be a baked-in flaw of white supremacists. They buy their own hype.

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Patrick's avatar

You have to define what it means for the Project 2025 agenda "work". It is at its core a plan to destroy and capture government. Destroying things doesn't take any competence.

The problem is making it politically "work", which is likely not possible.

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ArcticStones's avatar

CRACKPOTS VISIBLE THROUGH THE GROWING CRACKS

"Little cracks are becoming very-big cracks" – and through those growing cracks, the Crackpot-in-Chief, and all the crackpots he appointed or crackpots who support him, are becoming more and more visible. Increasingly, they have nowhere to hide!

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ArcticStones's avatar

SPECIAL ELECTION IN TENNESSEE

If Democrat Aftyn Behn pulls off a miracle and actually beats Republican candidate Matt Van Epps in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional district, it will be yet another political earthquake – and very high on the Richter Scale! After our Blue Wave on 4 November, there are clear signs Republicans are in a panic!

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/14/tennessee-special-election-epstein-files

I’ll make sure to have plenty of nachos on hand on 2 December, which is Election Night for this special election.

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Shelley Riskin's avatar

ArcticStones---And champagne!! (the non-alcoholic version, too...)

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Patrick's avatar
3hEdited

Keep working at it. Even if we get a close result, it will send a big signal. It would be amazing if she won, but even a close race would be an earthquake.

It would be amazing if the GOP thought it needed to spend time and resources into +21 R districts.

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Nicholas Behm's avatar

The DownBallot had a good update on this race: https://open.substack.com/pub/thedownballot/p/morning-digest-gop-readies-offensive?r=3szz8w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

It's a short read, but I highly recommend it.

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Andrew Ames's avatar

Assuming both the House and the Senate do at some point vote to release all the Epstein files, what’s to stop Trump and Bondi from cherry-picking them and releasing only the ones that don’t mention Trump? Is there any way for Democrats to ensure that releasing all the files actually means all the files?

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Michael G Baer's avatar

Here is the part I don't understand. We already have so much from the oversight committee subpoena of the Epstein estate. We also have living witnesses from the victims, their lawyers, and folks from the Biden DOJ staff/ What was released last week is hugely damning. So how much does it truly matter that we get a clean DOJ version of the complete files?

Politically is has consequences, I get that. But in terms of getting to the actual truth of the matter, it seems to me there is a ton of information already available with potential other sources for more.

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Yes, that is my point in my piece today - we don't need what DOJ has any more. Nice to have not a must to have. Trump is implicated by Epstein himself; he/DOJ lied and covered it all up, suppressed docs; issues of Russia and compromise now on the table. The scandal has already exploded and the files are there now to buttress what is already known.

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Andrew Ames's avatar

Got it. Thanks, Simon.

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Andrew Ames's avatar

My concern was that low-information voters might not connect the dots based on the already damning stuff that's already out there -- and an "official" release, with all the hyper-focused media attention, might reach them (and influence them) in a more powerful TKO punch kind of way. But, as you say, maybe it's already taking a major toll on voters' assessment of Trump.

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Yes, and here we do not turn wins into losses. This is a clean, powerful win and yes there is more to do.

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MrsCQ's avatar

Low information voters who support Trump will probably always support him. BUT, we don't need all of them. What the Dems are doing is getting more people to vote for them and against Trump, etc. Let's focus on the wins. Hey, I am angry about a lot of things, but I am encouraged and I don't want to lose hope. Hang in there! If nothing else, take joy in how panicked Trump looks and is acting. I do. Little wins turn into big wins!

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Faith Wilson's avatar

I’m inclined to think that the Democrats have even more materials they haven’t released yet

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Catherine Giovannoni's avatar

Since the Epstein estate has at least some of the materials, that would be risky for DOJ. Also, the victims' lawyers have seen the files and so have 1,000 FBI agents. Information leaks.

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Warmhoo's avatar

How about Maureen Comey as a source who worked the Epstein case and was fired unless ethically prohibited?

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Patrick's avatar

I think anonymous leaks are very likely. Daniel Ellsberg, Mark Felt kind of stuff. I read that in addition to 1,000 FBI agents doing the initial assessment of where Trump appears, that they had everything in a spreadsheet which was not protected. So if that is right, thousands of people at the FBI (maybe more broadly DOJ?) could access information.

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KBH's avatar

Marjorie Taylor Greene goes from saying, repeatedly but as recently as several months ago, that the United States needs a "divorce"--red states from blue states--to now quoting Barack Obama (and others) saying we're all Americans and have much more in common than what divides us. I'd say that's a BIG crack! Handwriting on the wall that, to use Simon's phrase, "defending the indefensible" ain't gonna cut it anymore.

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Lisa Iannucci's avatar

I hope she means it. Time will tell!

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Martha Joan's avatar

And any trust the public had for her and her MAGA people is now gone. How can anyone believe what she states. Now she not longer believes in Q-ANON conspiracies, and now she states that it is deeply hurtful to be attacked by Trump. What is next?: the ELECTION WAS NOT STOLEN? How to repair trust in the GOP? and all of our institutions after the attacks on the government beginning with Reagan.

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Virginia Shultz-Charette's avatar

I'll take it as a wonderful opportunity to give a permission structure to have other members of the R party in the House and Senate to dump Trump or at least vote against his upcoming harmful policies that harm their own constituents! I would call that a very large crack indeed!

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RP2112's avatar

This is welcomed in the moment, but it's just amazing to me how absolutely feckless and compass-less MAGA's are. MTG has condoned, excused, rationalized, and even supported the litany of reprehensible things Trump has said and done for about 8 years. Now that he's turning into a political albatross for her ambitions, she might be separating from him? As if lying about the 2020 election, catalyzing Jan 6, his criminally negligent handling of COVID, calling KIA soldiers "suckers and losers" weren't enough. Same with Nikki Haley when she pretended to split with him until it looked like he'd be in power again. These people have the moral backbone of a bowl of Ramen noodles, and a moral compass that points only at their own ambitions. I'll gladly take any help to blow up MAGA, but charlatans like MTG will just form another pernicious movement unless she's held to account.

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KBH's avatar

Couldn't agree more. But we need to be opportunistic in exploiting cracks to our advantage when they occur. That doesn't mean we have to like MTG, her views or anything else. Or that we have to get into "political bed" with her. I hope if we field a D candidate to run against her that he/she raises all these outrageous and hypocritical things you mentioned. In the meantime, we should do everything we reasonably can--within our own value system--to make this crack bigger than it already is. To use a gross metaphor--there's a lot of nasty puss that can and should be pushed out of that crack.

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Cynthia Erb's avatar

Thank you for the early morning newsletter! I shared the haunting PSA from the survivors on FB and called my Freedom Caucus rep, urging him to join with Greene and Boebert to vote yes to release the files. I imagine you and the Contrarians will talk about MTG. She is an opportunist, certainly, but perhaps at least she sees the writing on the wall for the MAGA movement.

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Shelley Riskin's avatar

Cynthia, MTG sees her opportunity to move up to the presidential race, stomping on the failing Criminal in Chief. Still, as Simon points out, it's a win!

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Virginia Shultz-Charette's avatar

It also seems that being on the receiving end of violent threats may have been a wake-up call regarding the monster she has been supporting. A very big crack in support and it serves as an off-ramp for other Republicans who have been silent out of fear.

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Angela Teiken Heitzman's avatar

Need to burst the bubble—read my post above.

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Michael G Baer's avatar

Whats it about? Many of us wont click on the link without context.

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Angela Teiken Heitzman's avatar

Need to burst this “miraculous” bubble where Trump appears to have caved.

Trump only appears to have given up. Bondi agreeing to his demand to investigate democrats in the Epstein files will make it so NO ONE can legally see them. And T can say, well I said the oversight committee should have whatever it’s legally entitled to—oh well, I guess that means they are entitled to nothing. Shoot. Not my fault.

Also, he could have told DOJ to release the files rather than increasing the complexity by telling the House to vote for the file release. Another stall tactic.

My take anyway. Remember, rarely if ever does he mean what he says.

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Rachel Poliner's avatar

Hubbell's substack this morning got into the "investigation" and possible impacts on releasing the documents, including that the since the "investigation" is only focused on certain Dems, only those files could be withheld for investigation purposes. If they withhold docs about Trump, it would mean he's being investigated. And since those (anything about Dems) are exactly the docs they want to release if they exist, they can't run investigations. Hubbell also got into how the Epstein Files Transparency Act supersedes certain other legal procedures and other aspects that made releasing the files sound more likely.

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Patrick's avatar

It's an interesting angle. It's almost as if they didn't think their strategy through.

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Kate's avatar

Interesting post from James Fallows on Sunday on the shutdown. https://open.substack.com/pub/fallows/p/why-i-changed-my-mind-about-the-shutdown?r=8n863&utm_medium=ios

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Michael G Baer's avatar

This is good stuff. Thank you

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Lisa Iannucci's avatar

The Ken Burns American Revolution series is absolutely revelatory, as we knew it would be. It was spellbinding - it does what great storytelling does - it makes you think that maybe things are going to turn out differently than you know they will. It shows events from various points of view, and it uses heretofore marginalized voices to paint a more complete picture. The inclusion of women as a primary driving force was absolutely mind blowing -- the assertion that it was women who drove the "liberty" message. And the maps and how they use them to contextualize events - they must have spent years just locating them. Just wow! And you can watch it on streaming and re-watch to your heart's content! Looking forward to hearing what others think.

Just listened to Heather Cox Richardson on Nicolle Wallace's podcast. She says we are at an inflection point similar to the beginning of the FDR era, and now we just need to find our FDR! She says we also need to, of course, prevent authoritarian centralization of power - which we can get great insight into by studying history. As I mentioned a couple days ago, I did see the film on Nuremberg over the weekend, and it was informative - if flawed - on the mentality of why people are drawn to perceived strength. Well, the mask is off. There is no strength, only weakness.

Keep going!

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Anne Bear's avatar

I hope that the next president has the vision to put together a working group of historians to fascist-proof the government.

And yes, we do need a visionary. I don't know who that is, but I hope they come.

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Rachel Poliner's avatar

I agree -- the documentary is a must-watch for all the reasons you stated.

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RG's avatar

Let’s not forget who MTG truly is… she’s okay with young teens being shot and killed in school and cruelly harassing the survivors but pretends to support the Epstein victims. Her touchstone for condemning political violence is Charlie Kirk not Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark. Anything she says is self serving to her own political ambitions.

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Bison Doc's avatar

Sadly, political ambitions - even when misguided - seem to drive most behavior by our elected representatives. The trick may be to get those ambitions aligned with the interests of Americans at large. For now I'll take mtg's 'come-to-Jesus' confessions. Yesterday, our fellow Hopiate, Michael Baer, posted this Brian Tyler Cohen interview with Rep. Ro Khanna on where he thinks we should be going in our politics. I found it insightful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OueqSbT8N8

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Susan Dieterlen's avatar

That's what makes it extraordinary. If it's all just her positioning herself for maximum advantage post-MAGA, it's a helluva sign. Especially because you'd never have picked her as especially astute.

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RG's avatar

True that! And I’m all for the small to large cracks in the MAGA cult but I hate to see media trying to sane wash MTG

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Faith Wilson's avatar

Exactly- she was just posting complaining about “big government” imposing mask mandates and immigrants taking jobs, so she’s promoting the same tired populism

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DARLA's avatar

Simon, could you help us understand something called Rockbridge Network? It’s an organization that supposedly is working to keep MAGA going after Trump and Vance is a member. Heather Cox Richardson mentions it in her post today. Thank you for all you are doing. I’m making my calls, donating, and pushing the Resolution though I think that’s likely going to be dormant now until after the holidays.

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Emmanuel Thad Ereme's avatar

Hi Family

Very instructive to listen to Marjorie Taylor Greene's comment on CNN. There are times in Life that wayward family members must be brought from the Cold! MTG has been hinting for many weeks now that she wants to come back from the Cold and be embraced by her larger family, the American family-us!

No matter what she has been and done to our Politics in the past-it's time to now embrace her as a Family member.

In time, she'll have to make amends for her part in the Harm done to America!

But, for now, she needs to be brought back Home from the Cold!

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Michael G Baer's avatar

I, along with many, do not trust her or her motivations. I welcome her pivot, but that does not erase her past positions. You can't just turn on a dime for a few weeks and receive forgiveness and welcome. It will be a long, long road for her to earn some respect.

She says she still supports Trump's agenda, just not the Epstein files. She is trying to play it both ways.

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Thomas's avatar

"No matter what she has been and done to our Politics in the past.... In time..."

Whoa... No, there's no "in time."

If she has betrayed her Oath to protect and defend our Constitution, it would be extremely foolish for THIS member of the "American family" to bring her back in from her betrayal.

She has to openly admit FIRST that she betrayed her Oath.

Apologies for being blunt, but I find your recommendation to be naive and foolish. There IS a WAY back -- but she has to prove/demonstrate her repentance. And that will take time.

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LeslieN's avatar

No, we don't.

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David Erickson's avatar

Magazines quoting, cameras rolling,

Names in the black book no-one controlling.

Flight logs printed with the president’s name,

Visits and encounters everybody explains.

Blanche interviews Maxwell, door closed tight,

Next thing you know she’s in a low-security site.

Cover this, cover that, lock it up tight.

Trump’s DOJ is turning off the light.

Why fight so hard to stop the show?

Don’t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

Yeah, folks see patterns everywhere the paper slows.

Every time more comes out, another door closes.

https://www.movements.rocks/p/we-know-which-way-the-wind-blows-lyrics

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BeeLee's avatar

Called all three of the remaining Colorado reps (Lauren Boebert has already stood up) to urge them to vote to release the Epstein files. Called the Washington offices and interestingly all three were picked up by very subdued staffers. Usually they are rather glib. I focussed on it being way past time to do the right thing and come together as a country!

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