Happy Saturday all. We are now officially in the last month of the 2024 election! I feel good, and much rather be us than them. Harris-Walz have a steady lead in national polling, and we are much closer to 270 in the battlegrounds today. Harris is far better liked than Trump and has closed the gap on the economy in recent weeks, even taking the lead in some polls. We have meaningful advantages in money, field/volunteers, and enthusiasm, which makes it far more likely we gain in this last month of the election and win. The Harris campaign is hungry, aggressively fighting to expand our coalition (Liz Cheney!) something I discuss in the MSNBC clip above. We got another great jobs report yesterday and the good economic news just keeps coming. Senate polling remains encouraging, with us holding everywhere except Montana which our team feels remains a true toss up. Lighting could strike in the FL, NE, TX Senate races. All three far closer than Republicans want right now and the incumbents are all in their own ways terrible candidates. House Dems are optimistic and working hard. In a new memo released this morning the DCCC writes:
With one month left until Election Day, Democrats are well-positioned to win the House majority. House Democrats have the candidates, message, money, and mobilization efforts to connect with voters, and the DCCC is confident that we will build on this momentum in the closing weeks to win in November.
The DCCC’s Frontline incumbents and Red to Blue candidates continue to run on a popular message of lowering costs, growing the middle class, and defending our freedoms. Meanwhile, vulnerable House Republicans and the NRCC’s “Young Guns” are being exposed for their anti-abortion positions, their push to give tax breaks to the ultra-wealthy while selling out the middle class, and fealty to Donald Trump and his dangerous Project 2025 agenda.
Their unpopular agenda is borne out in polling: Recent DCCC battleground polling shows House Republicans’ favorability underwater by six points across 67 competitive congressional districts. In fact, by a six-point margin, voters trust Democrats more than Republicans to lower costs for families. And while House Republicans in the majority have failed to get anything done for the American people, they have fallen in line behind Trump’s Project 2025 – a dangerous agenda that 56% of voters in our polling have an unfavorable view of, including 62% of independents.
Meanwhile, the same poll found that Democrats in Frontline and In Play districts are ahead by two points in the named head-to-head against their Republican opponent……
The campaign enters a new and much more intense phase this week as voters will be voting in 15 states within a few days - Arizona, California, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Virginia, Vermont and Wyoming. This week people will start casting ballots in five states we are focused on here - Arizona, California, Montana, Nebraska and Ohio. It’s show time everyone, and we have to keep making our calls, writing our postcards, doing our texts, knocking on doors and donating. The election is really here now and we need to be loud and proud, and help our candidates and state parties be as loud as they can be. So sign up for a shift, make a donation, work your networks today, and let’s go win this thing in October my friends, and then again on Election Day.
Early Vote Update - Here’s today national early vote tally according to TargetEarly. We are running a little ahead of 2020. So far, so good. Expect more detailed reports starting late next week. It’s still a little early to be diving into all this data.
Red Wave Pollsters Stepped Up Their Work This Week - The red wavers stepped up their activity this past week, releasing at least 20 polls across the battlegrounds. It’s a sign that they are worried about the public polling in both the Presidential and the Senate, and have dramatically escalated their efforts to push the polling averages to the right and make the election look redder than it is. As in 2022, these polls usually between 2 and 4 points more Republican than the independent polling so when there a lot of them they can move the averages rightward.
Here is what was released in the past week:
Emerson - National, AZ, NC, PA
Cygnal - IA
Insider Advantage - AZ, GA, NC, NV
McLaughlin - FL
Mitchell Comms - MI
OnMessage - PA
Patriot Polling - PA
Remington - MI, MT, NV, PA, WI
RMG - National, FL, MI, NC, TX
Texas Gun Rights - TX
Trafalgar - MI, PA, WI
Victory Insights - FL
While they released polls in many states this week the states that have received the most red wave polls few weeks are Montana, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Over the past 10 days, depending on how you characterize the pollsters, they released at least 5 and as many 7 polls in Pennsylvania alone. Their recent flood of polls in NC and PA tipped the Real Clear Politics polling average for each state to Trump, which then in turn got Trump to 281 in their corrupt Electoral College map. Yes, in Real Clear Politics Trump is now winning the election due to their gamesmanship.
I now count 27 Republican or right-aligned entities in the polling averages:
American Greatness, Daily Mail, co/efficent, Cygnal, Echelon, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Mitchell Communications, Napolitan Institute, Noble Predictive, On Message, Orbital Digital, Public Opinion Strategies, Quantus, Rasmussen, Redfield & Wilton, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, TIPP, Victory Insights, Wall Street Journal.
In September 12 of the 24 polls of North Carolina were conducted by red wave pollsters. Check out the last 4 polls released in PA on 538. All are red wavers.
As I wrote in my last look at this rancid project, it is time for those who analyze polls to start acknowledging that there is now a third type of poll - the red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose - to move the polling averages to the right. They are exploiting the “toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy” of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages - and thus our understanding of the election. Party leaders should expect them to keep these polls coming, and keep working the averages until it looks like Trump is winning in all polling averages. It is what they did in 2022, and it worked. They are doing it again this time, and once again it is working as the averages are moving and everyone is treating this movement like an organic rather than a deeply corrupt process.
More Hopium 2024 Election Analysis:
New Simon talks - my latest take on the 2024 election recorded Wednesday night, and a new talk on the importance of voting on Day 1 and winning it in October
Our new Closing Strong episode is live! Be sure to catch our interview with Nebraska Dem Chair Jane Kleb. It is one of my favs of the year. So proud of what Jane and the Dems are in Nebraska are doing this cycle.
80 million postcards have begun their journey to voters in battleground districts and states - amazing stuff all!
4 new electoral trends that are making me even more optimistic
No red waving 2024 please - it’s time we talk about all these right-aligned polls in the polling averages
My reflections on how central lying and invention - eating cats and dogs - has become to the modern American right and the 2024 campaign
Watch Vice President Harris’s big economic speech, her new speech on the border and immigration, and her terrific interview with Stephanie Ruhle
We now know that Trump’s abortion bans are killing women
The Hopium Community Is Doing More, A Whole Lot More, and Worrying Less, A Whole Lot Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Friends, you are incredible. When called, you answered. In the last 2 days before the filing deadline we raised over $500,000 for our candidate and state parties, and over $1m in the past week. As you will see below we are nearing on our October 31 targets right now. Honestly, when I set these new goals I thought they would be stretch goals. But here we are, with a month to go, clearly on track to hit these ambitious goals and together make a serious difference this election cycle. Note that we hit $100,000 raised for Jon Tester in just a few weeks - thank you all!
We are in October now. Millions of postcards have begun making their important journey. Without another Presidential debate in the final six weeks our ticket needs other ways to keep generating intensity and interest. That’s why your work, your money, your working your networks matters more than usual. For we have to become the intensity makers. We have to keep talking to voters. We are have to keep bringing it, everyday, as we’ve been doing in these final six weeks. For when we fight, peeps, we win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Harris-Walz For President - $1,151,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel
Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:
North Carolina - $700,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We need to keep stepping up for the people of North Carolina!!!!!!
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $423,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $233,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!
Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:
Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,452,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates
Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $62,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.
Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!
Winning The House Thursdays - This week we gather for Sue Altman, Thursday, at 715pm ET. Register here to postcard or call for Sue, a great candidate. Learn how you can postcard and call for our candidates every day, not just on Thursdays here. We had a big crowd on Thursday for Adam Gray - thank you all!
Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego. If you want to help defeat Deb Fischer in Nebraska give to the great Nebraska Dem Party today!
Montana/Jon Tester - $104,000 raised, $200,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve blown through our $100,00 goal and are now shooting for $200,000!
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $72,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $423,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $233,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!
Ways you can do even more
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting has now begun across the country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!
Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.
Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 121,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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