I remember these same stories from 2022. They can be misleading because they include people who moved and changed their address, etc. Bottom line: We're winning, he's losing. He's been campaigning for a year, banking on the complicity of the media and the total capitulation of his party. Now, suddenly a woman who just entered the race three weeks ago (unprecedented is too mild a word for this) is beating him with what really amounts to a handful of ads and appearances. This is not a shift happening in one or two states, here and there, but a simultaneous collapse in his very soft base and a massive upwelling of enthusiastic support for Kamala Harris. Nothing about this race is the same as it was before Biden dropped out except for Donald Trump himself.
One of my favorite polling experts is Simon's friend, Joe Trippi. I recall a number of months ago that Joe predicted that Trump's numbers would collapse. He said that Trump was like a guy carrying a paper bag filled with water. At first it doesn't leak, but when it goes, it goes all at once.
Joe is great. He seemed to know Biden was gonna do what was necessary. Broke my heart. In the clip above you can see he is very old, but what a damn good president. Now we have a team that can really take it to trump; politics is theater, has been since Julius Ceasar; policies are important to get out there,but you have to have a team that can deliver them ( or in the GOPs case obscure them ).
Joe Biden is a great president, and he did what was best for the country. I wish the steps that got us here had been taken in a more respectful manner, but here we are. The fact that Biden had waited until after the Sunday shows to drop is decision says he read the room perfectly. A hundred years from now, this handoff will be remembered properly. I could not be more thrilled with the Harris-Walz ticket. As Hakeem Jeffries says, when you have a message and a messenger at the right moment, you have a movement. Or words to that effect.
So agree. Biden strategized perfectly. I would guess the Covid break (July 17) gave him the time to realize what he needed to do and then how to do it. Once DT locked in his VP choice (RP Conv July 15-18), the path was clear to Biden. He waited a week to ensure there’d be no time for Dems to go crazy with an open primary in-fighting, then stepped aside (his decision went public at 1:46 - 1 for single term, 46 for the 46th president) and less than half an hr later endorsed Harris. He knows Harris, he knew she would carry on his legacy and the battles still to be fought. Biden even now is recognized as one of our greatest Presidents on so many levels, this hand-off being one of the greatest of them as well as the utter secrecy of the two yr hostage swap deal. I admire him more all the time and am ever more grateful he stepped into the fray for our country in 2020.
My question is, don't you have to have a convention before you get the convention "bounce"? Then she doesn't have to go another 6 months before election day. Especially with some states that allow early voting.
Russell, Heather Cox Richardson also believes that something is definitely happening! She’s been waiting and watching for something like this to happen for her whole career. She says she believes in the American people, and that we’re living through history in the making!
Pennsylvania is critical ! I’m training to call Inactive voters in Pa to help restore them to their Active status to facilitate voting in November. Other opportunities available with training and support provided.
Ezra Klein did a wonderful interview with Tim Walz posted last week before his choice as Vice Presidential Candidate was selected. Worth taking the time to listen to.
I wouldn't listen to Ezra Klein do anything whatsoever. He is a windsock pretending he's the jetstream. My heart breaks a little bit for the guy. Truly.
While I disagree with Ezra Klein on many things, and at times find him exasperating, I do acknowledge he does great interviews. His conversation with Tim Walz is a fine example of that.
So relieved to see that Josh Stein now has a two-digit lead over Mark Robinson! I firmly believe this will help lift Kamala Harris to victory in North Carolina, as we’re unlikely to see a lot of ticket splitting.
Pink Tsunami and Blue Wave incoming! Let’s double our work.
More great polling: When Simon wrote today’s Hopium Chronicle, 538’s national average had Harris ahead by 2.4%. It has now jumped to 2.7%.
Of the 11 swingiest states (AZ FL GA MI MN NV NH NC PA VA and WI), Trump now leads in only two of them: North Carolina (1.3%) and Florida (5.2), Georgia is even!
Polls are still catching up. In reality, I think Harris’ leads are much higher.
Coming soon: Convention bump (if Gaza demonstrations can be kept to a minimum), and ... I predict a measurable Taylor Swift endorsement bump.
On my wish list: a Kamala endorsement from Arnold Schwarzenegger.
.
Update: Up again, from 2.7 to a 2.8% lead for Harris!
Let’s also not forget the likelihood of some upcoming “negative bumps” for Trump, including his sentencing for the multiple felonies of the hush money case next month, and the start of the classified documents case in October (which will remind everyone about it). There’s also the debate next month, which I think is very unlikely to go in Trump’s favor.
Guys please keep the pedal to the metal here in NC. We have to get Kamala and Tim and Josh and the whole Democratic slate across the board. We have been purple for so long and this new, joyful moment is just what we need to make NC blue! Together with time, talent, and treasure we can get this! Thanks, Simon and the Hopium family!
Vote Forward also has a NC campaign. They are very data driven and their campaigns are effective. It's letters and not postcards but just as easy and fun.
Thanks, Simon, for posting the Carolina Forward poll! It's incredibly encouraging here in NC, where flipping the NC GOP supermajority is going to be critical. Josh Stein needs to win, and we need to break the NC GOP. It's looking increasingly likely that we can! And we need to make sure that North Carolinians realize that it's not just Mark Robinson (MAGA GOP candidate), but that we have the especially scary Michele Morrow running for NC Superintendent of Public Instruction. Here's a video that CNN posted two days ago: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/09/politics/kfile-michele-morrow-january-6-comments/index.html
"In a deleted Facebook livestream she filmed from her hotel room, Morrow called for mass arrests of anyone who helped certify the 2020 election. “And if the police won’t do it and the Department of Justice won’t do it, then he will have to enact the Insurrection Act,” said Morrow. “In which case the Insurrection Act completely puts the Constitution to the side and says, now the military rules all.”
The American Dream is generated and fueled by joy. Joy is creative. The joyless can’t create shit. So they claw at reality to feel better. Corporate life is not American life. Under corporate rule, the First Amendment is the first thing to go. You are an American after work and on weekends, until that doesn’t sustain your joy anymore.
We all need to join and vote for American life. Vote 4 Joy!
These next 86 days are our opportunity to put a stake in all the MAGA nonsense that we have dealt with these past 9+ years. I really do believe that we are being driven by a sense of optimism and joy rather than fear (Rule #1 of Simon Rosenberg's rules for 2024?). It's why the canvassing, phone banking, and post carding numbers are all increasing.
Every day I come to this community and am motivated to do more and more to help us win big. That's my focus for these coming weeks. What more can I do to help us win and win big. I know you are all doing that too!
there's so much verbiage about joy lately...I'll feel joy on November 7 if blue prevails. Right now, my emotional stance is more like dogged determination. The orcs are still just over the wall at the moment.
Dogged determination is good too. My point was that we are all working towards something now, rather than just working against something, and that's better.
Just a reminder to new folks on this site. If you or your family wants to help with GOTV and you are phone shy, please sign up to be a letter writer at Vote Forward: https://votefwd.org/campaigns and start writing letters to Democratic likely voters who need a little encouragement to vote. It is easy to sign up, and they have tutorials about how to write effectively. Letters will be mailed to the Swing States (including North Carolina) on October 1st. For every 100 letters written, one new Democratic vote actually votes! Goal is 10 million letters which should yield 100,000 additional votes for Harris-Walz.
Trump says he was hacked by a "hostile foreign power," which he identified as Iran. I think he's doing his investigation a disservice by neglecting other possibilities, don't you? England, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Poland, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, most of the US...
PS The stolen materials, JD Vance's vetting research, were apparently sent to a number of "news organizations." I wonder if those organizations will *publish* what they were sent, the way they published Wikileaks every day in October 2016, or the Discord Leaks (complete with expert commentary--you know, in case the Russians or Chinese missed anything)
PPS So much for the claim that the reason the DNC and not the RNC was hacked in 2016 was because the RNC was smarter :D
NYT reports that there are multiple private polls showing Trump under 50% in Ohio. It sounds like there might be trouble for him in Ohio as more people tune in.
In my door knocking in the Lean R target areas has been overwhelming positive on Sherrod. I have not done any GOTV since Biden dropped out and that area was showing much less support in general.
I was driving through a rural area the other day, and it seemed like there were fewer Trump signs than I remember. Most of them are from the houses that have had them up since 2016. However, it is still kind of early for the yard signs to come out, so I am probably reading too much into those tea leaves.
I think there's something to those NYT reports. I'm not surprised he's dropped below 50% and I don't see a lot of excitement driving GOP turnout. Other than the hardcore Trump-worshippers, who can get excited about voting for the same guy three presidential elections in a row? On the other hand, Ohio Dems are fired up because of Kamala's history-making campaign and the chance to vote for an anti-gerrymandering ballot issue, Brown is popular, and this state overwhelmingly voted to enshrine abortion rights in the constitution last year. Vance may well be a drag on the ticket, too. He really underperformed against Tim Ryan. I think there's a part of the electorate who voted for Mike DeWine who could be persuaded to vote for Dems this year. If we could get Joe Burrow to endorse Harris/Walz, that would be huge.
I hope Joe Burrow comes through for us, it would mean a lot to people like my brother who are interested in RFK Jr., but I do not know if it is in the cards.
As for Tim Ryan v JD Vance, Tim largely got his rural and suburban targets but fell short in the cities. I was surprised how much people did not like Tim Ryan in Akron.
Yes, I think this is correct. I read that in 2016 a big difference in the D presidential outcome was people in Cuyahoga county (Cleveland-Akron-Canton) just not voting. Huge drop off from the Obama years. In 2016, that may have been decisive. In 2020, that, coupled with high rural enthusiasm for Trump, sealed Dems' fate in the state. Gotta get the cities buzzing again to even have a chance.
Christopher, here is something that’ll surely interest you. This article on the DailyKos argues that Democrats need to invest in Ohio and put the state in play. Very well argued, imho.
Hi Leah, Hopium is on Substack and the author is Simon Rosenberg. He’s wonderful. He helps us with where to donate to make the most impact etc. His articles are filled with links and ways to help Democrats win. All with a positive viewpoint. Download Substack and subscribe. His motto is ‘do more, worry less’ and I have. 💙
Still, the AZ and PA numbers seem concerning...
I remember these same stories from 2022. They can be misleading because they include people who moved and changed their address, etc. Bottom line: We're winning, he's losing. He's been campaigning for a year, banking on the complicity of the media and the total capitulation of his party. Now, suddenly a woman who just entered the race three weeks ago (unprecedented is too mild a word for this) is beating him with what really amounts to a handful of ads and appearances. This is not a shift happening in one or two states, here and there, but a simultaneous collapse in his very soft base and a massive upwelling of enthusiastic support for Kamala Harris. Nothing about this race is the same as it was before Biden dropped out except for Donald Trump himself.
How reliable is that source? I've heard that source isn't that reliable
That’s a good one! A real feel good ad.
Do you know if this video is running on TV or only on social media? Does LP do any TV advertising? Just curious.
One of my favorite polling experts is Simon's friend, Joe Trippi. I recall a number of months ago that Joe predicted that Trump's numbers would collapse. He said that Trump was like a guy carrying a paper bag filled with water. At first it doesn't leak, but when it goes, it goes all at once.
Joe is great. He seemed to know Biden was gonna do what was necessary. Broke my heart. In the clip above you can see he is very old, but what a damn good president. Now we have a team that can really take it to trump; politics is theater, has been since Julius Ceasar; policies are important to get out there,but you have to have a team that can deliver them ( or in the GOPs case obscure them ).
Joe Biden is a great president, and he did what was best for the country. I wish the steps that got us here had been taken in a more respectful manner, but here we are. The fact that Biden had waited until after the Sunday shows to drop is decision says he read the room perfectly. A hundred years from now, this handoff will be remembered properly. I could not be more thrilled with the Harris-Walz ticket. As Hakeem Jeffries says, when you have a message and a messenger at the right moment, you have a movement. Or words to that effect.
So agree. Biden strategized perfectly. I would guess the Covid break (July 17) gave him the time to realize what he needed to do and then how to do it. Once DT locked in his VP choice (RP Conv July 15-18), the path was clear to Biden. He waited a week to ensure there’d be no time for Dems to go crazy with an open primary in-fighting, then stepped aside (his decision went public at 1:46 - 1 for single term, 46 for the 46th president) and less than half an hr later endorsed Harris. He knows Harris, he knew she would carry on his legacy and the battles still to be fought. Biden even now is recognized as one of our greatest Presidents on so many levels, this hand-off being one of the greatest of them as well as the utter secrecy of the two yr hostage swap deal. I admire him more all the time and am ever more grateful he stepped into the fray for our country in 2020.
My question is, don't you have to have a convention before you get the convention "bounce"? Then she doesn't have to go another 6 months before election day. Especially with some states that allow early voting.
Russell, Heather Cox Richardson also believes that something is definitely happening! She’s been waiting and watching for something like this to happen for her whole career. She says she believes in the American people, and that we’re living through history in the making!
Here’s a link to her interview today with Brian Tyler Cohen: https://youtu.be/j389dk8dzIY?si=LagH-Q48Ojp5qCoA
Pennsylvania is critical ! I’m training to call Inactive voters in Pa to help restore them to their Active status to facilitate voting in November. Other opportunities available with training and support provided.
https://www.vopropros.com/
You're amazing!!!
Ezra Klein did a wonderful interview with Tim Walz posted last week before his choice as Vice Presidential Candidate was selected. Worth taking the time to listen to.
Found it!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-tim-walz-the-midwestern-dad-democrats-need/id1548604447?i=1000664114455
Yes, I heard that one last week--it's quite good :)
Thank you
It is a GREAT interview. Walz is a real human being. (As opposed to a VP candidate concocted in a focus-group laboratory.)
I am so happy with Kamala Harris choice. Sign of more good things to follow
I wouldn't listen to Ezra Klein do anything whatsoever. He is a windsock pretending he's the jetstream. My heart breaks a little bit for the guy. Truly.
While I disagree with Ezra Klein on many things, and at times find him exasperating, I do acknowledge he does great interviews. His conversation with Tim Walz is a fine example of that.
So relieved to see that Josh Stein now has a two-digit lead over Mark Robinson! I firmly believe this will help lift Kamala Harris to victory in North Carolina, as we’re unlikely to see a lot of ticket splitting.
Pink Tsunami and Blue Wave incoming! Let’s double our work.
More great polling: When Simon wrote today’s Hopium Chronicle, 538’s national average had Harris ahead by 2.4%. It has now jumped to 2.7%.
Of the 11 swingiest states (AZ FL GA MI MN NV NH NC PA VA and WI), Trump now leads in only two of them: North Carolina (1.3%) and Florida (5.2), Georgia is even!
Polls are still catching up. In reality, I think Harris’ leads are much higher.
Coming soon: Convention bump (if Gaza demonstrations can be kept to a minimum), and ... I predict a measurable Taylor Swift endorsement bump.
On my wish list: a Kamala endorsement from Arnold Schwarzenegger.
.
Update: Up again, from 2.7 to a 2.8% lead for Harris!
Let’s also not forget the likelihood of some upcoming “negative bumps” for Trump, including his sentencing for the multiple felonies of the hush money case next month, and the start of the classified documents case in October (which will remind everyone about it). There’s also the debate next month, which I think is very unlikely to go in Trump’s favor.
Good points! I’m also looking forward to Tim Waltz demolishing his counterpart – if JV Vance is allowed to debate.
Guys please keep the pedal to the metal here in NC. We have to get Kamala and Tim and Josh and the whole Democratic slate across the board. We have been purple for so long and this new, joyful moment is just what we need to make NC blue! Together with time, talent, and treasure we can get this! Thanks, Simon and the Hopium family!
Off to register new voters!
300 postcards and donations coming your way!
Same here, but they don't get mailed out till October according to the instructions.
My cards are going to Nevada and PA but don't get mailed until October as well.
Like Lisa, I just finished 200 postcards headed to NC and I donated to the NC Democratic Party through the Hopium Act Blue. The calvary is coming!
Quick question - how can I get in on the postcards to NC action? :)
This is where I did it. Choose the North Carolina option
https://secure.everyaction.com/wWYzSycvi0uyLrKtsMnNXw2
Thanks! Just signed up for 200 to NC!
Excellent! Thank you!
Me too!!
Fantastic! Keep up the great work!
Also just signed up for 200 to NC!!!! Let's do this!
You can also write to N.C. and elsewhere through https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Vote Forward also has a NC campaign. They are very data driven and their campaigns are effective. It's letters and not postcards but just as easy and fun.
I’m doing 200 postcards and donated last week to all our causes!
Calvary is a good place to find yourself, but it's the Cavalry you are referring to as coming...
Working on my postcards to likely D voters in NC! 300 down, 200 to go!!🇺🇸💙💙💙🇺🇸
Thanks, Simon, for posting the Carolina Forward poll! It's incredibly encouraging here in NC, where flipping the NC GOP supermajority is going to be critical. Josh Stein needs to win, and we need to break the NC GOP. It's looking increasingly likely that we can! And we need to make sure that North Carolinians realize that it's not just Mark Robinson (MAGA GOP candidate), but that we have the especially scary Michele Morrow running for NC Superintendent of Public Instruction. Here's a video that CNN posted two days ago: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/09/politics/kfile-michele-morrow-january-6-comments/index.html
"In a deleted Facebook livestream she filmed from her hotel room, Morrow called for mass arrests of anyone who helped certify the 2020 election. “And if the police won’t do it and the Department of Justice won’t do it, then he will have to enact the Insurrection Act,” said Morrow. “In which case the Insurrection Act completely puts the Constitution to the side and says, now the military rules all.”
Democrats are challenged to organize all the new volunteers.
Meanwhile, the other day the NM GOP tweeted a desperate call for help, and they highlight a photo of a twenty-something Trump on the website.
The American Dream is generated and fueled by joy. Joy is creative. The joyless can’t create shit. So they claw at reality to feel better. Corporate life is not American life. Under corporate rule, the First Amendment is the first thing to go. You are an American after work and on weekends, until that doesn’t sustain your joy anymore.
We all need to join and vote for American life. Vote 4 Joy!
These next 86 days are our opportunity to put a stake in all the MAGA nonsense that we have dealt with these past 9+ years. I really do believe that we are being driven by a sense of optimism and joy rather than fear (Rule #1 of Simon Rosenberg's rules for 2024?). It's why the canvassing, phone banking, and post carding numbers are all increasing.
Every day I come to this community and am motivated to do more and more to help us win big. That's my focus for these coming weeks. What more can I do to help us win and win big. I know you are all doing that too!
there's so much verbiage about joy lately...I'll feel joy on November 7 if blue prevails. Right now, my emotional stance is more like dogged determination. The orcs are still just over the wall at the moment.
Dogged determination is good too. My point was that we are all working towards something now, rather than just working against something, and that's better.
Just a reminder to new folks on this site. If you or your family wants to help with GOTV and you are phone shy, please sign up to be a letter writer at Vote Forward: https://votefwd.org/campaigns and start writing letters to Democratic likely voters who need a little encouragement to vote. It is easy to sign up, and they have tutorials about how to write effectively. Letters will be mailed to the Swing States (including North Carolina) on October 1st. For every 100 letters written, one new Democratic vote actually votes! Goal is 10 million letters which should yield 100,000 additional votes for Harris-Walz.
Trump says he was hacked by a "hostile foreign power," which he identified as Iran. I think he's doing his investigation a disservice by neglecting other possibilities, don't you? England, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Poland, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, most of the US...
PS The stolen materials, JD Vance's vetting research, were apparently sent to a number of "news organizations." I wonder if those organizations will *publish* what they were sent, the way they published Wikileaks every day in October 2016, or the Discord Leaks (complete with expert commentary--you know, in case the Russians or Chinese missed anything)
PPS So much for the claim that the reason the DNC and not the RNC was hacked in 2016 was because the RNC was smarter :D
I have the distinct impression that Trump considers a democratic America to be "a hostile power".
I was looking at the Ohio polls, and in the latest poll I see on 538, which is two weeks old now, Brown was +4, and Trump was +10! I hate it here
I would love to see it. The GOP runs this state, and they seem only to want to work on things that benefit their corporate donors and their base.
NYT reports that there are multiple private polls showing Trump under 50% in Ohio. It sounds like there might be trouble for him in Ohio as more people tune in.
In my door knocking in the Lean R target areas has been overwhelming positive on Sherrod. I have not done any GOTV since Biden dropped out and that area was showing much less support in general.
I was driving through a rural area the other day, and it seemed like there were fewer Trump signs than I remember. Most of them are from the houses that have had them up since 2016. However, it is still kind of early for the yard signs to come out, so I am probably reading too much into those tea leaves.
I think there's something to those NYT reports. I'm not surprised he's dropped below 50% and I don't see a lot of excitement driving GOP turnout. Other than the hardcore Trump-worshippers, who can get excited about voting for the same guy three presidential elections in a row? On the other hand, Ohio Dems are fired up because of Kamala's history-making campaign and the chance to vote for an anti-gerrymandering ballot issue, Brown is popular, and this state overwhelmingly voted to enshrine abortion rights in the constitution last year. Vance may well be a drag on the ticket, too. He really underperformed against Tim Ryan. I think there's a part of the electorate who voted for Mike DeWine who could be persuaded to vote for Dems this year. If we could get Joe Burrow to endorse Harris/Walz, that would be huge.
I hope Joe Burrow comes through for us, it would mean a lot to people like my brother who are interested in RFK Jr., but I do not know if it is in the cards.
As for Tim Ryan v JD Vance, Tim largely got his rural and suburban targets but fell short in the cities. I was surprised how much people did not like Tim Ryan in Akron.
Yes, I think this is correct. I read that in 2016 a big difference in the D presidential outcome was people in Cuyahoga county (Cleveland-Akron-Canton) just not voting. Huge drop off from the Obama years. In 2016, that may have been decisive. In 2020, that, coupled with high rural enthusiasm for Trump, sealed Dems' fate in the state. Gotta get the cities buzzing again to even have a chance.
Christopher, here is something that’ll surely interest you. This article on the DailyKos argues that Democrats need to invest in Ohio and put the state in play. Very well argued, imho.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/12/2262642/-Why-the-Democratic-Party-show-put-Ohio-in-play-in-2024
Democrats have no idea how good this can get, and every reason for making it as good as possible.
I loved this interview — I’m impressed by Tony Vargas and o now appreciate the importance (and promise!) of NE.
Is there a Hopium community in Brooklyn or Manhattan? I’d love to get involved
Hi Leah, Hopium is on Substack and the author is Simon Rosenberg. He’s wonderful. He helps us with where to donate to make the most impact etc. His articles are filled with links and ways to help Democrats win. All with a positive viewpoint. Download Substack and subscribe. His motto is ‘do more, worry less’ and I have. 💙
Yes, I’m a paid Hopium member! And on Substack as a subscriber
Just looking for in person events in my area
Sorry, I misunderstood.
With substack membership reaching 100k, perhaps there are sufficient members in your locale to pull a local group of "hopium goupies" together?