The Reckoning For Trump's Idiocy, Extremism, And Betrayal Has Begun
It has become impossible to ignore the damage he is doing to the country
Morning all. In this week’s video and post I shared that something felt different now with Trump. That after almost eight months of this historic shitshow it was becoming harder and harder for any reasonable person to put lipstick on the Trumpian pig and ignore the damage he is doing to the country, his clear physical and cognitive decline, and the ongoing and intense rejection of him and his agenda by the American people. I felt this growing understanding was encouraging opposition to him to become more ambitious, determined and widespread in recent weeks.
We saw this new dynamic at play in the Kennedy hearing yesterday. Democrats were impressively fierce and effective in their questioning. 4 Republican Senators joined the Democrats, and landed some of the most significant blows in what was a disastrous showing for this dangerous man. Simply in this new Trump era this was the most intense opposition a Trumper has received in public, and for good reason - what Kennedy is trying to do will bring clear, material harm to the American people and there isn’t support for it even among Republican voters.
NBC News is reporting today that a reason Republicans were so aggressive in the hearing was a polling memo from Trump’s own pollster, Tony Fabrizio, that showed broad support for vaccines even among Republican voters, circulated throughout the Senate this week:
Polling showing that a majority of President Donald Trump’s voters support vaccines was shared with several Republicans lawmakers’ staffers in a closed-door meeting Wednesday, according to two people familiar with the meeting.
NBC News obtained a copy of a memo, dated Aug. 26, summarizing the poll results. It was conducted by veteran Republican pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward and concluded “that there is broad unity across party lines supporting vaccines such as measles (MMR), shingles, tetanus, diphtheria and pertussis (TDAP), and Hepatitis B.” Fabrizio and Ward presented the findings during the meeting, the sources said.
In an email to NBC News, Ward confirmed the memo was authentic but declined to comment about the meeting. It’s unclear who commissioned the poll or arranged the meeting. A source close to the White House denied that the administration requested the poll.
The poll results may explain the shift in tone from some GOP senators at Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s hearing Thursday before the Finance Committee……
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The poll found that there was broad agreement that vaccines should continue to be made available at no cost, including two-thirds of Trump voters and more than 8 out of 10 swing voters.
Respondents said they place their greatest trust in doctors and nurses when it comes to vaccine information, including 76% of Trump voters.
About 73% of Trump voters and 83% of swing voters agreed that vaccines save lives.
While the poll showed Trump voters support most vaccines, it also found lingering partisan divides over Covid vaccines. Only 22% of Trump voters said it was important for people to get the Covid shots, according to the poll.
The memo said, however, that “Republicans should not mistake skepticism over the COVID vaccine as evidence that Republican voters are against all vaccinations.”
Even Republicans Senators yesterday were like “what the f—k are you doing here Kennedy? This is some crazy shit! You need to cut it out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
We saw this new dynamic at play this morning when Trump himself acknowledged the damage he and his tariffs have done to our standing in the world with this extraordinary and deeply pathetic post. And to be clear “we” did not lose India. He - Trump - with his insane, destructive, illegal tariffs - did.
We saw this dynamic at play this morning in what was another bad jobs report. From the intrepid folks at BLS:
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April. Over the month, a job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extractionNo new jobs have been created in America since Trump implemented his initial round of tariffs in early May. It is a direct cause and effect.
Let us be very clear about this aspect of the emerging reckoning. Trump’s economic agenda, led by destructive tariffs, have dramatically slowed the economy, re-ignited inflation, hurt farmers and small businesses, weakened the financial integrity of the United States and has done lasting harm to our standing in the world and dramatically accelerated our decline as a global power. And every court that has reviewed them has declared them illegal, modern day “taxation without representation,” an assertion of powers that the President simply does not have, and could never have in this country given our colonial experience with Mad King George’s tyrannical tariff and trade policies.
It is why I have argued that rolling back these tariffs should be the single highest priority for Democrats right now. For the damage they are doing is far, far greater than any other part of Trump’s agenda. There is great urgency to getting them reversed as soon as we possibly can.
We saw this dynamic at play in this new, jawdropping video of a senior DOJ official admitting to the Trump regime’s weaponizing the Epstein files against Democrats and to what is now arguably the greatest coverup and scandal in American history, one that they cannot run away from:
We see this dynamic at play this morning in a thoughtful new public opinion analysis from G. Elliott Morris that features this chart:
Morris writes:
Today, nearly a majority of Americans strongly disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, twice as large as the percentage of adults who strongly approve of him. If you took all the people who strongly disapprove of Trump and got them to vote against him, their share of the vote would be higher than the share Trump got in his first term. And if you add even just a third of the soft disapprovers, you get a vote share higher than Trump's popular vote victory in 2024.
A position this poor eventually leads to political or electoral costs (or both). The president's (failed, so far) rebranding attempt of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act suggests that even he recognizes the political liability of being associated with deeply unpopular policies.
And regardless of political or electoral impacts, it's important for our understanding of ourselves to properly calibrate our sense of support for Trump. The president would like you to believe, for example, that his mass imprisonment and deportation of unauthorized immigrants is broadly popular. The same goes for his deployment of the National Guard to cities like Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. (and maybe soon, Chicago).
But as far back as March, it was clear that Trump was not generally popular, and that the cornerstones of his agenda were unpopular, too. The current record-setting nature of his strong disapproval percentage highlights this theme again. Trump is not an indomitable leader with FDR-levels of support from the masses, despite his claims. He wants you to think he is, because popularity gives him power, But the reality is that Trump is governing with intense opposition from nearly half the country.
It's not a question of if being unpopular will hurt Trump and the GOP. The historical relationship between presidential approval and election results — and Trump’s recent interest in rebranding the OBBBA — suggests it's a question of when.
This analysis supports what I’ve been arguing here - that a very large percentage of the country is no longer available to Trump and the Republicans, and that it may impossible now for him to build broad support for any of his initiatives, regardless of their virtue. This data also suggests that pro-democracy forces have an awful lot of energized people that they can channel into protests, election volunteer work, info warring and donating. This intensity has been showing up in our overperformances in special and local elections this year and is an explanation for why Trump has been so desperately trying to find ways to blunt our advantage in the mid-term elections next year. They have real pollsters and see what we are seeing.
The growing awareness of what a disaster Trump has been for the nation is giving us a big opportunity to win the fall and make clear the tide is turning against him and his terrible, terrible regime. We need to seize it, together.
Now, Let’s Go Win The Fall Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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For more on Hopium’s approach to elections check out 1) the many important wins we had together last cycle 2) my big recommendations to the family coming out of the 2024 elections about what we need to do now 3) my latest thinking on where we are and the path forward for the Hopium community.
Take Action, Express Your Love Of Country Through Good Works - We are prioritizing two actions today. You can get our full list of recommended actions here. Let’s get to it:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your reps work to
Roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Block the expansion of ICE and the use of the military on our streets including DC
End Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; stop the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; demand the removal of extremist Robert Kennedy from HHS - yes we need to FIRE HIM
Stand with Ukraine and block Trump’s ongoing efforts to sell out the US
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 75 (!!!!) resolutions projects in 23 states +DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!!
As we get ready for what is going to be a very intense fall of politics let’s take inspiration from those famous words from Robert Frost that “the best way out is always through.”
Means we just have to put our heads down and do the work everyone! - Simon
Vibe shift report: four times a year I get together with old grad school friends for dinner. One of my friends leans libertarian and typically votes Republican. Here's a summary of her Trump attitudes:
July, 2024 (after the assassination attempt): "I don't like the guy, but he looks so vigorous compared to Biden! I couldn't have reacted that well under those circumstances."
October, 2024 (shortly before election): "It will be all right whatever happens. He did terribly in the debate, but I just don't know if I can support Harris. But she crushed him on that stage." The four of us had a LONG argument about immigration; she was completely opposed to "illegal" immigration despite our other friend telling us about how her mom had come here without papers from Spain during the Franco dictatorship.
February, 2025, consoling our friend who was worried about losing her job in genetics research: "It will be okay. These people are businessmen and want to make money. I worked for the state when Pat McCrory was governor and there was a lot of concern then, but it turned out okay."
May, 2025: "Trump is crazy. What he's doing to the sciences is unconscionable." (She is a toxicologist)
September, 2025: "Washington looks like China. Our institutions are collapsing. Ripping people off the street and disappearing them is just plain evil."
She has done a 180 and is an example of how the narrative has shifted on immigration. I have to say, our dinners have gotten less tense since we don't have to dance around politics anymore! We are all in agreement now.
Simon, thanks for the great discussion of the polls.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen and urged them to do whatever is necessary to get rid of RFK. I noted that the COVID vaccine was developed with Americans' tax dollars and that it is outrageous that Americans who want the vaccine now cannot get it.
I'm making it a point to subscribe to the YouTube commentators I listen to and to hit "Like" for them. I'm sharing more of that content across my social media platforms. Doesn't really feel natural to me; it makes me feel like I've become my grandma, cutting out articles from the paper and mailing them to family. I always thought she was sweet but silly to do that. But that's apparently what Republicans do to spread their ideas.
Finally, I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters today.