Canary in the coal mine, indeed. It was about this time in 2008 when the news first dropped that IN was in play and, of course, Obama turned it blue. Wave elections don't occur in isolation. The male-dominated corporate media and polling organizations refuse to see this one coming because for it to happen would mean that women made it happen, and they don't like the implications of that or that their wanton disregard for women's rights could have serious electoral consequences.
Friends, want to do something really important to help us secure Kamala's victory? Please phonebank today and tomorrow into Mecklenburg County in NC -- it's a dem stronghold, but they have historically poor turnout. That's changing this year -- lots and lots of mobilization efforts, and every single one of us who pitches in can push us over the top in NC. NC gets called early -- wouldn't it be nice to hear it went for Kamala?
I signed up for today's shift, I hope you'll join me, please spread this to your networks!
Thanks for the link! Signed up for Mecklenburg NC phone banking AND a phone bank with Field Team 6 to register Dems in crucial swing states on Election Day. Woo hoo!
Hey Robert, I don't like phone banking either - especially the scale-to-win auto dialer that the coordinated campaign is using.
So I'm phonebanking this afternoon with the Center for Common Ground which allows you to choose amongst counties with a high proportion of black voters in NC, VA, GA, FL, AL, and TX - including my own Mecklenburg County.
You click on a button to initiate the dialer, which for me is a LOT less stressful than Scale to Win! You can also leave a voice mail if you don't reach the voter - plus you help clean up the database if the number is no longer in service or the person you are trying to reach has moved.
This afternoon CFCG is having a joint Zoom with the Worker's Circle through 8 pm ET but you can also do call on your own through Tuesday. If you aren't a frequent phone banker it might be a good idea to hop on the Zoom they are training at the top of the hour.
Thanks for the heads up! I'll switch my evening session of phonebanking from AZ to NC. Everyone I spoke to in AZ this morning was voting for Harris/Walz and voting Dems down ballot!
He mentioned it briefly. Imo his mention was too brief. I see it as a political earthquake. If it's accurate, we're doing 10 points better than in 2020. The get to 55 goal from earlier this year becomes plausible again.
It was pointed out on MSNBC tonight that the Harris/Walz campaign put exactly nothing in terms of resources into Iowa, since it was a foregone R win. All of the shift came about organically from people (especially women) seeing He Who Will Not Be Named for what he is.
From Pennsylvania: sign up to help us phonebank on Election Day for cure calls into PA. Thank you for your dedication to helping us make sure every vote is counted this year!
In order to join us for one of these phonebanks, you will need to attend a training TODAY Sunday 11/3 beforehand. You can sign up for that training at any of the times listed on this Mobilize link: https://www.mobilize.us/2024pavictory/event/737030/
The Selzer/Des Moines Register poll has sent a shock wave through the news media and the pundit class, for obvious reasons. The conclusions, from one of America’s most respected and revered pollsters, constitute a political earthquake.
If you are interested, here is what the Des Moines Register and Ann Selzer have to say about their own poll. Lots of fascinating details!
Similar story in battlegrounds. Not saying Harris wins Iowa, but there is a clear gap between what state institution polls and what national polls are saying.
Imho, the most interesting polls these days are those asking Early Voters: WHO did you vote for? Fascinating if a reliable poll aggregator would give us an in-depth analysis of just those polls.
But most of all, I want to see the Harris Campaign and its many allies and volunteers, including us here at Hopium, get every single Democrat and democracy-defending voter to the poll.
GOTV! Let’s run up the score and make this a historic Blue Wave!
LV does not include new voters. Still registering new Democrats in MI, WI, NV. FT 6 sent 800,000 texts to them yesterday. None of the polls address that.
In IA, senior women are breaking 2-1 for Harris. I wanna know about veterans, Ukrainian Americans, Polish Americans, etc.
Today is the last day of early voting in Miami Dade Florida. Other counties ended yesterday. It's the traditional "souls to the polls" day. Could be big.
So encouraging to read about FT6’s continuing work!
Daniel, I am curious: Has Field Team 6 had any call or texting operations aimed at Iowa? If not, is FT6 launching any now, after that stunning Selzer poll? Or do you know of other major GOTV operations there?
Yes, we have been doing a couple of House races, Bohannon and another name that slips my mind at the moment. This is in the BYOP group, Not sure if Daniel is in that group. There are 3 texting groups. The big textbank group (the pirahnas) might be doing something on Iowa. The leadership is looking into it now.
I have been tracking Early voting in Mecklenburg Co., NC which ended yesterday.
When the data is normalized for how long the polls were open each day (by calculating voters/hr), the top 5 days for EV in 2024 were (1) yesterday, (2) Friday, (3) first Sunday of EV, (4) 2nd Sunday of EV, and (5) first Saturday of EV. The first day of EV ranked 8th out of 17.
This is very different than in 2020 when the Dems had a pretty pitiful ground game: (1) 1st day of EV, (2) 2nd day, (3) 4th day, (4) fifth day, and (5) 6th day. The first Saturday in 2020 ranked second to last (bad weather or trying to avoid crowds???) and the final day of EV ranked 6th.
I don't know about NC but nationally we use a VAN and VAT system that automatically notes who has voted and who has not. Of course, garbage in, garbage out. The reason we wanted people to vote early was because we don't want to spend GOTV resources on them.
Besides the party, FT 6 has a different database of nonregistered people who we try to register as Democrats. Hypothetically the NC campaign has been successful. Registrations ended in NC yesterday. I don't think you have those stats in VAT and VAN.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea, we are expecting wind and rain on Tuesday.
Christina Bohannan in IA01 now has a 16 point lead according to Selzer's new Iowa poll. The campaign is greatful to the Hopium community for their support. Thank you, Simon, for your confidence and optimism.
Iowa is a stretch for sure but should make us feel better about the Blue Wall and all our paths to 270. Also it deeply cuts into Trump’s narrative that he’s winning, which will make contesting the election that much harder for him.
I really suspect that Tim Walz being on the ticket makes it easier for independents and Rs in the mid-west to vote Harris-Walz. Harris's pick of Walz was a political masterstroke (not to mention inspired.)
I was just watching a Seanthesheepman video on YouTube (border collies in Scotland) and it occurred to me when I read "pushing the election towards us" that we're vote herders!
So, Harris is up 3 in the Selzer poll in Iowa? I think it's worth noting, then, that Trump won Iowa by a greater margin in 2020 than he won ME-2. Oh, and also Ohio, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina.
I think it's also worth noting that Tom Suozzi was up 1 in the polls going into his special election in February, and wound up winning his race by 8.
I see this happening all over the map. Trump may have gotten a few votes during early voting, but I don't see him getting votes on election day. He literally "blew" them away.
In my third post, I will elaborate on Simon's analysis of red wave polls. I will also suggest reasons that THE NATIONAL POLLS (Emerson College, etc.) may be underestimating the Harris share of the vote because they are "overcorrecting" for the mistakes they made in 2020. To that end, I will talk about the latest Des Moines Register polling.
I hope you will consider becoming a paid subscriber to my blog. All of the money raised from these posts will go towards Democratic and/or progressive causes (unless you prefer to donate to nonpartisan causes; if you do, just let me know)
Also, for what it's worth, I would say this about Iowa: keep your focus on the battlegrounds. Don't get overexcited and think you are going to do round-the-clock volunteereing in Iowa. "Que sera, sera." Whatever will be in states like Iowa will be. Let the people of Iowa mobilize to win Iowa (or maybe just try to win), as anecdotal reports suggest they are already doing.
We just need to keep doing the work in the battlegrounds, kick some ass, take Pennsylvania, work the phones in Arizona, and WIN, WIN, WIN! Otherwise, just tell everyone you know to VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!
I led a bus trip yesterday to CA27 where we knocked doors for George Whitesides. Filled a 50-seat coach easily - enthusiasm in the grassroots is our superpower and, remarkably 8 years later, it is Still being overlooked and underreported!
We heard from Whitesides’ campaign that they are on the ground in CA27 and targeting Latinos (incumbent R is Mike Garcia who outperforms w/Latinos), even ballot harvesting. Our side is going heavily to very low propensity voters which is a tough crowd but we have managed to push hundreds to vote. That could be the difference in this razor thin race.
Considering that the majority of the pundits are white men and the majority of the grassroots volunteers are women - often older women - does it really suprise you?
There are some great exceptions like Simon, Robert Hubbell, David Pepper, and some others I'm sure I'm overlooking. But does anyone think Nate Silver is taking grassroots into account?
Happy Sunday everyone! Going to do my last shift textbanking/phone banking for NE-02/Tony Vargas/Dan Osborn.
The Selzer poll is quite encouraging, maybe the most encouraging development yet, and points to perhaps an EC win of 320+ for Harris and winning 30+ states. This could be one of the most unpredictable elections of our lifetime. We might know the outcome before the end of Tuesday.
Greetings from day two on the ground here in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. On another great day canvassing. I am armed with canvassing materials, and tons of coffee!!! LFG!!!
THANK YOU! I live in very red E TX but there are some of us Dems here who voted early - we love that you can canvass where it is so important. I just wanted to say thank you from the bottom of my heart!
Another good day canvassing. I am exhausted but in a good way. Long time volunteers have told me they have never seen this level of effort. WE ARE GOING TO WIN!!!!
Friends, I did write about the IA poll. It's part of what has been a very good week of polling for us that I've been writing about all week. And as I write and have been writing it is far more likely the polls underestimate us this time than Trump, as it has been Rs who've underperforming public polls for years now, not us.
I'm concerned about the fact that a large number of absentee ballots in Pennsylvania have gone out late or never got to voters. I just read that 17,000 absentee ballots in Erie never got to voters. I know we had a problem in Pittsburgh as well. The courts have extended early voting to accommodate this problem but I don't know how that helps disabled voters who can't leave the house and people who are away. I wonder if this affected the lack of mail in ballots that Simon talked about.
I think we can safely say that no one is being complacent.
MSNBC/Rachel Maddow just had Selzer on the Decision 2024 special election program today discussing the Iowa poll.
Canary in the coal mine, indeed. It was about this time in 2008 when the news first dropped that IN was in play and, of course, Obama turned it blue. Wave elections don't occur in isolation. The male-dominated corporate media and polling organizations refuse to see this one coming because for it to happen would mean that women made it happen, and they don't like the implications of that or that their wanton disregard for women's rights could have serious electoral consequences.
Friends, want to do something really important to help us secure Kamala's victory? Please phonebank today and tomorrow into Mecklenburg County in NC -- it's a dem stronghold, but they have historically poor turnout. That's changing this year -- lots and lots of mobilization efforts, and every single one of us who pitches in can push us over the top in NC. NC gets called early -- wouldn't it be nice to hear it went for Kamala?
I signed up for today's shift, I hope you'll join me, please spread this to your networks!
https://www.mobilize.us/ncdems/event/740159/
Verified.
https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/politics/elections/mecklenburg-county-democrats-inside-look-at-strategy-2024-presidential-election-voter-engagement/275-d1ba7d21-376c-4a04-9523-75d2b484fa92
Signed up. I really don't like phone banking, but I'm gonna put on my big boy pants and do it for democracy!
Uncle Sam needs you! https://www.mobilize.us/events/phone-bank-volunteer-opportunities/
Thanks for the link! Signed up for Mecklenburg NC phone banking AND a phone bank with Field Team 6 to register Dems in crucial swing states on Election Day. Woo hoo!
Good for you, we've got this!
You’ll be fine. Cole on in. The water is great!
Hey Robert, I don't like phone banking either - especially the scale-to-win auto dialer that the coordinated campaign is using.
So I'm phonebanking this afternoon with the Center for Common Ground which allows you to choose amongst counties with a high proportion of black voters in NC, VA, GA, FL, AL, and TX - including my own Mecklenburg County.
You click on a button to initiate the dialer, which for me is a LOT less stressful than Scale to Win! You can also leave a voice mail if you don't reach the voter - plus you help clean up the database if the number is no longer in service or the person you are trying to reach has moved.
This afternoon CFCG is having a joint Zoom with the Worker's Circle through 8 pm ET but you can also do call on your own through Tuesday. If you aren't a frequent phone banker it might be a good idea to hop on the Zoom they are training at the top of the hour.
Zoom Link: https://actionnetwork.org/events/callapalooza-november-3?source=direct_link&referrer=group-the-workers-circle
Links to the various phonebanks: https://www.centerforcommonground.org/phonebanks
Ballot cure calls don't use autodialer! State Dems often have these phone banks.
Me too. Hate it.
I just signed up and my husband will, too! Thanks for this link!
I did it yesterday - my first pb session ever! - and am on again tonight and tomorrow -
also tomorrow for Jon Tester!
Thanks for the heads up! I'll switch my evening session of phonebanking from AZ to NC. Everyone I spoke to in AZ this morning was voting for Harris/Walz and voting Dems down ballot!
I signed up for this evening’s shift! Thank you for this motivation.
I can't get into the zoom room. Anybody else have an issue?
I couldn't get in either. Finally gave up and joined the young voter's phone bank that Simon sent us the link to.
Signed up 6:30pm tonight.
Simon
Any reaction to the Iowa poll?
He mentioned it briefly. Imo his mention was too brief. I see it as a political earthquake. If it's accurate, we're doing 10 points better than in 2020. The get to 55 goal from earlier this year becomes plausible again.
Finally, some news from Iowa that I care about.
It was pointed out on MSNBC tonight that the Harris/Walz campaign put exactly nothing in terms of resources into Iowa, since it was a foregone R win. All of the shift came about organically from people (especially women) seeing He Who Will Not Be Named for what he is.
From Pennsylvania: sign up to help us phonebank on Election Day for cure calls into PA. Thank you for your dedication to helping us make sure every vote is counted this year!
In order to join us for one of these phonebanks, you will need to attend a training TODAY Sunday 11/3 beforehand. You can sign up for that training at any of the times listed on this Mobilize link: https://www.mobilize.us/2024pavictory/event/737030/
Male pollster: "Tie game. We adjusted for Trump."
Male pollster: "Tie game. We adjusted for Trump."
Male pollster: "Tie game. We adjusted for Trump."
Male pollster: "Tie game. We adjusted for Trump."
Ann Selzer: "Have you boys heard of Dobbs?"
https://nitter.poast.org/emptywheel/status/1853020569605665234#m
The Selzer/Des Moines Register poll has sent a shock wave through the news media and the pundit class, for obvious reasons. The conclusions, from one of America’s most respected and revered pollsters, constitute a political earthquake.
If you are interested, here is what the Des Moines Register and Ann Selzer have to say about their own poll. Lots of fascinating details!
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
Similar story in battlegrounds. Not saying Harris wins Iowa, but there is a clear gap between what state institution polls and what national polls are saying.
Imho, the most interesting polls these days are those asking Early Voters: WHO did you vote for? Fascinating if a reliable poll aggregator would give us an in-depth analysis of just those polls.
But most of all, I want to see the Harris Campaign and its many allies and volunteers, including us here at Hopium, get every single Democrat and democracy-defending voter to the poll.
GOTV! Let’s run up the score and make this a historic Blue Wave!
LV does not include new voters. Still registering new Democrats in MI, WI, NV. FT 6 sent 800,000 texts to them yesterday. None of the polls address that.
In IA, senior women are breaking 2-1 for Harris. I wanna know about veterans, Ukrainian Americans, Polish Americans, etc.
Today is the last day of early voting in Miami Dade Florida. Other counties ended yesterday. It's the traditional "souls to the polls" day. Could be big.
We expect a big day Tuesday, and a flood of Gen Z voters, but weather forecasts aren't good..... https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Miami+FL?canonicalCityId=c9d07351a6bbc498786bf52814f07b68fe43a40bfd634facef3db6b459321c41
So encouraging to read about FT6’s continuing work!
Daniel, I am curious: Has Field Team 6 had any call or texting operations aimed at Iowa? If not, is FT6 launching any now, after that stunning Selzer poll? Or do you know of other major GOTV operations there?
Yes, we have been doing a couple of House races, Bohannon and another name that slips my mind at the moment. This is in the BYOP group, Not sure if Daniel is in that group. There are 3 texting groups. The big textbank group (the pirahnas) might be doing something on Iowa. The leadership is looking into it now.
And we sent all those texts in half an hour!
I have been tracking Early voting in Mecklenburg Co., NC which ended yesterday.
When the data is normalized for how long the polls were open each day (by calculating voters/hr), the top 5 days for EV in 2024 were (1) yesterday, (2) Friday, (3) first Sunday of EV, (4) 2nd Sunday of EV, and (5) first Saturday of EV. The first day of EV ranked 8th out of 17.
This is very different than in 2020 when the Dems had a pretty pitiful ground game: (1) 1st day of EV, (2) 2nd day, (3) 4th day, (4) fifth day, and (5) 6th day. The first Saturday in 2020 ranked second to last (bad weather or trying to avoid crowds???) and the final day of EV ranked 6th.
I don't know about NC but nationally we use a VAN and VAT system that automatically notes who has voted and who has not. Of course, garbage in, garbage out. The reason we wanted people to vote early was because we don't want to spend GOTV resources on them.
Besides the party, FT 6 has a different database of nonregistered people who we try to register as Democrats. Hypothetically the NC campaign has been successful. Registrations ended in NC yesterday. I don't think you have those stats in VAT and VAN.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea, we are expecting wind and rain on Tuesday.
Christina Bohannan in IA01 now has a 16 point lead according to Selzer's new Iowa poll. The campaign is greatful to the Hopium community for their support. Thank you, Simon, for your confidence and optimism.
Iowa is a stretch for sure but should make us feel better about the Blue Wall and all our paths to 270. Also it deeply cuts into Trump’s narrative that he’s winning, which will make contesting the election that much harder for him.
The Selzer poll is mind-blowing!
I really suspect that Tim Walz being on the ticket makes it easier for independents and Rs in the mid-west to vote Harris-Walz. Harris's pick of Walz was a political masterstroke (not to mention inspired.)
Not to mention that TW is off-the-charts f..ing AWESOME!
Someone I know wondered if the Blue Dot focus spilled over into Iowa from a media market standpoint
Also, LOL, Simon has been saying this for literally months. DOBBS.
exactamundo!
I was just watching a Seanthesheepman video on YouTube (border collies in Scotland) and it occurred to me when I read "pushing the election towards us" that we're vote herders!
Love it!
True, except Dems tend to be more like cats than sheep!
And we're herding them nonetheless.
Kamala Harris: “I got Donald to work at McDonald’s.”
Joe Biden: “I got him to dress up as a garbage man.”
Stormy Daniels: “I got him to pick up a mic, and…”
Hilarious!!!!
I’ll never pick up another mic…
I need to take a shower now.
All that dancing to YMCA has finally broken through his subconscious mind
I wonder whether Donald has the remotest clue as to what that song is about?
I dunno, but lately some latency is showing itself....
What about the amazing Iowa poll
So, Harris is up 3 in the Selzer poll in Iowa? I think it's worth noting, then, that Trump won Iowa by a greater margin in 2020 than he won ME-2. Oh, and also Ohio, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina.
I think it's also worth noting that Tom Suozzi was up 1 in the polls going into his special election in February, and wound up winning his race by 8.
Keep running it through the tape, everyone!
Yes, if Selzer holds up, Harris could end up winning FL, TX, OH, IA, NC and who knows what other states.
320+ EC votes and winning 30+ states is not out of the realm of possibility.
I see this happening all over the map. Trump may have gotten a few votes during early voting, but I don't see him getting votes on election day. He literally "blew" them away.
Your lips to god's ears.
320 is underselling it. More like 415 if Harris wins everything Trump carried by 10 or less points (I rounded Alaska down to 10).
Exactly. Run through the tape. I really like the way Simon puts it: “We’re winning but we haven’t won yet.” Heads down all, and let’s win this.
Friends,
Just released part 2 of my series of articles on "the state of our union's elections" on my blog Salzillo's Two Cents (https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/p/the-state-of-our-unions-elections-92f). In that post, I provide my original analysis of the fundamentals.
In my third post, I will elaborate on Simon's analysis of red wave polls. I will also suggest reasons that THE NATIONAL POLLS (Emerson College, etc.) may be underestimating the Harris share of the vote because they are "overcorrecting" for the mistakes they made in 2020. To that end, I will talk about the latest Des Moines Register polling.
I hope you will consider becoming a paid subscriber to my blog. All of the money raised from these posts will go towards Democratic and/or progressive causes (unless you prefer to donate to nonpartisan causes; if you do, just let me know)
Best wishes,
David Salzillo
Writer of Salzillo's Two Cents (https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/)
Also, for what it's worth, I would say this about Iowa: keep your focus on the battlegrounds. Don't get overexcited and think you are going to do round-the-clock volunteereing in Iowa. "Que sera, sera." Whatever will be in states like Iowa will be. Let the people of Iowa mobilize to win Iowa (or maybe just try to win), as anecdotal reports suggest they are already doing.
We just need to keep doing the work in the battlegrounds, kick some ass, take Pennsylvania, work the phones in Arizona, and WIN, WIN, WIN! Otherwise, just tell everyone you know to VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!
I led a bus trip yesterday to CA27 where we knocked doors for George Whitesides. Filled a 50-seat coach easily - enthusiasm in the grassroots is our superpower and, remarkably 8 years later, it is Still being overlooked and underreported!
I haven't heard anything about the Rs' ground game. Are they even out there?
We heard from Whitesides’ campaign that they are on the ground in CA27 and targeting Latinos (incumbent R is Mike Garcia who outperforms w/Latinos), even ballot harvesting. Our side is going heavily to very low propensity voters which is a tough crowd but we have managed to push hundreds to vote. That could be the difference in this razor thin race.
John, according to the latest reports, the Republican canvassers are still locked inside Elon Musk’s U-Haul.
The Central Valley of CA is conservative. There are many pockets of Trump voters. It's a huge state.
George is a good friend, a genius, and will be a force for good in the new Congress ! Do everything you can to get him elected to CA-27.
Still being overlooked and underreported!
⬆️
Considering that the majority of the pundits are white men and the majority of the grassroots volunteers are women - often older women - does it really suprise you?
There are some great exceptions like Simon, Robert Hubbell, David Pepper, and some others I'm sure I'm overlooking. But does anyone think Nate Silver is taking grassroots into account?
Exactly!
"Considering that the majority grassroots volunteers are women..."
In other words, the real job of post-menstrual women is to save American democracy – from people like JD Vance and "protectors" like Trup!
Except for Musk's techy ground game, which seems to be falling apart.
Extremely qualified.
Happy Sunday everyone! Going to do my last shift textbanking/phone banking for NE-02/Tony Vargas/Dan Osborn.
The Selzer poll is quite encouraging, maybe the most encouraging development yet, and points to perhaps an EC win of 320+ for Harris and winning 30+ states. This could be one of the most unpredictable elections of our lifetime. We might know the outcome before the end of Tuesday.
DMWL! Two days! LFG!!!
Greetings from day two on the ground here in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. On another great day canvassing. I am armed with canvassing materials, and tons of coffee!!! LFG!!!
From the ground-up! Keep powering through, TCash!
Blessings in your great work canvassing!
You are AMAZING, thank you!
THANK YOU! I live in very red E TX but there are some of us Dems here who voted early - we love that you can canvass where it is so important. I just wanted to say thank you from the bottom of my heart!
Another good day canvassing. I am exhausted but in a good way. Long time volunteers have told me they have never seen this level of effort. WE ARE GOING TO WIN!!!!
Friends, I did write about the IA poll. It's part of what has been a very good week of polling for us that I've been writing about all week. And as I write and have been writing it is far more likely the polls underestimate us this time than Trump, as it has been Rs who've underperforming public polls for years now, not us.
Dare we hope and work towards 55?
Keep working toward it!
I'm concerned about the fact that a large number of absentee ballots in Pennsylvania have gone out late or never got to voters. I just read that 17,000 absentee ballots in Erie never got to voters. I know we had a problem in Pittsburgh as well. The courts have extended early voting to accommodate this problem but I don't know how that helps disabled voters who can't leave the house and people who are away. I wonder if this affected the lack of mail in ballots that Simon talked about.