Friends, we need to stop nitpicking these ads and just promote the crap out of them to our networks. I find these kinds of they need to be doing "X" deeply tiresome and unhelpful. Millions of dollars of research goes into developing these ads for a small number of targets in just a few states. They are not meant for you. We do more here, and worry less, and there is IMHO far too much nitpicking and ankle biting on exactly the ad many of you have pined for in recent months. Stay focused on the mission people. Thank you - the management
Simon, a small note: The only time I have found fault or been annoyed by a Biden Campaign ad was (I believe) a TikTok ad in which overly loud background music strongly competed with the narrator’s voice. (But as you say, that’s nitpicking.)
All in all, I think the Bide-Harris ads are masterful! Let’s make them seen and heard!
Sorry what? - You'd like to anti-McConnell hate-give to fund the Faberge eggs at Amy McGrath's next concession gala? (there was an Onion article on that)
No, what needs to happen is the freaking population of Lexington, KY, maybe of Louisville too, and most of the minority population, needs to be airlifted or caravan'ed over to Ohio to make Ohio OK again.
Democratic standard-bearers for statewide elections in Kentucky that are worthy of investment/effort should all have the surname Beshear.
The Appalachian states are the longest reach and most inaccessible in the country. The "Tennessee Three" and their Memphis area constituents should move down to Mississippi to tip the state's racial demographic and flip the state's partisan lean.
My Mom's from Kentucky and I grew up visiting the grandparents and cousins in summers in the 70s and 80s. She's now the only one of our nuclear family residing in a mid-Atlantic state, and defines herself *against* her Kentucky background. Since I'm white, all my Kentucky relatives (who say anything political) are Republicans and Trumpers. At the outer fringes of the family, younger generation, there's one trans-person who probably is not. White, straight, Kentucky is lost pretty much.
I am all for geographically extensive Democratic Party strategies, and competing widely, and not just bunching up in metropolitan, coastal and blue states. I am intrigued by Charles Blow's concept of the reverse Great Migration to at least some southern states and potential political empowerment benefits. I think some southwestern and mountain states, could, in the long run, have some potential to evolve favorably from their blue dots outward, with migration of blue-staters who like less expensive housing or easier access to the outdoors, sort of like how Vermont evolved from rock-ribbed Republican (anti-FDR in 1936!) to Bernie Sanders-ville. But, we've only got so much peanut butter and jelly (center-left and progressive voters) to spread around, and some of the national "bread" may have to be left uncovered. For me, I'm picking out West Virginia, KY, TN, Indiana, Arkansas, Utah, Oklahoma, and the line of the column of middle plains states north of it except for the Omaha blue dot as the write-offs, to concentrate on every place else in the country. We need to fight for, hold, win back, all the Great Lakes states except for Indiana. [I still can't figure out how Obama won that in 2008]
Sulzberger is openly hostile to Biden. Despite some good reporting etc. I believe that the NYT is objectively pro-Trump. I share your dismay. But I still haven't cancelled. Here (hopefully) is your "gift" link:
“Character Matters” has a different connotation to us than to MAGATS and to unpersuadables.
THEY want a rebel. In denial about convictions and rape.
Visceral stuff works. "Trump hates dogs' repeated repeatedly on Facebook pet sites, "not suckers ort losers" on military or history sites, "would you support someone who stole from kids with cancer" on chastity sites.
Big takeaways from some of the first large-sample polling of Black voters this year (including in swing states): the sample population is basically as Democratic as ever, it generally approves of Biden and hates Trump's guts, and in the battlegrounds Biden has more of a consolidation task (pulling doubters back from Kennedy, West, and undecided) than a challenge from Trump.
It tracks with what we've seen from large Hispanic and Young voter samples: Biden has his doubters to win over, but Trump hasn't made much progress and isn't likely to.
Many of the Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 are somewhere between worry and terror that he might lose the presidency to Donald Trump in November. I am reasonably confident Joe Biden will win in November.
Here are my reasons for optimism:
While polls represent the opinion of a small number of voters at a fixed point in time, elections are a full expression of voters’ decision between candidates. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by 81 million to 74 million votes. Since then, pollsters, especially Nate Cohn’s NYTimes Siena poll, has created an intentionally misleading outlook for Biden in 2024.
Biden’s 2020 victory resulted from a choice by the majority of Americans to bring back responsible government, a forward-looking American agenda and reject Trump’s erratic, mean spirited, self-serving politics. The Trump of 2024 represents a more dangerous threat than he did in 2020. In addition to his constant lies, Trump is a rapist, a convicted felon, a financial fraudster, a threat to America’s national security, an election cheat and perhaps senile. So why would any of the 81 million Biden voters abandon him this November to vote for Trump or not vote? THEY WON’T. More likely, as the benefits of his policies become more widely recognized, Biden will pick up rather than lose voters to Trump.
However, ignoring the reality of Biden’s fundamental popularity, analysts and journalists daily warn Democrats that we should be very worried about losing for two reasons. First, Biden’s low popularity in the polls. Second, the president has old guy vibes and looks frail on TV.
Happily, Biden’s poll numbers have started rising in June. However, it’s hard to overstate the damage done to Biden’s campaign and the confidence of Democrats by the anti-Biden, gaslighting, New York Times/Sienna poll. Starting in 2023, the Times consistent election “story line” described Biden’s presidency as failing with low approval ratings. The Times poll results are widely quoted as national election “facts” by journalists across all media empowering “shock” news articles about Biden’s low prospects in 2024. The monthly drumbeat of negative Biden news has created an atmosphere of fear, dread and panic among Democrats, aided Trump’s dominance over the GOP and spread joy across the MAGA world.
How does the NYTimes poll mislead the public? By overcounting Trump-biased, MAGA participant groups in rural America. Its poll data is NOT a balanced picture of the political reality in America today but rather a snapshot of MAGA America. The Times polls include a significantly greater % of rural voters than can be justified by the demographics of America’s voting population. 22% of Americans live in rural counties. However, the Times poll has typically included 35% or more rural respondents, an overweighting of 59% in Trump America where he won in 2020 with 60% to 38% of the vote. To realistically interpret the Times polling data, Liberals should assume its polls and the journalists who quote it, are describing MAGA America, not the America where the majority of Biden’s 81 million voters live. It seems of late even Nate Cohn is waking up to his statistical aberration.
On a positive note, the Times poll results in May show Biden gaining ground. He’s leading in in Wisconsin and very close in 4 out of 5 others; VERY encouraging results for Joe Biden in a MAGA biased poll. If the Times adjusted its poll to 22% rural respondents, Biden would be ahead in 5 out of 6 swing states!
An interesting fact from the Times poll that Nate Cohn and the journalists NEVER report is that 70%-80% of all voters in swing states are “satisfied” or “somewhat satisfied” with their situation in America today. Journalist repeatedly report that the majority are very dissatisfied with Biden because of inflation. After all, who likes inflation? But, perhaps, most voters in the Times poll think the effect of inflation is not ruining their life and might not be a major factor in November.
Biden’s age as a competitive disadvantage compared to Trump defies reality as both candidates are much older than the traditional age for a presidential candidate. In November, voters will face a binary decision based on the current behavior and mental capacity of either candidate. One candidate is executing the responsibilities of the presidency every day. He is successfully fighting wars in the Ukraine, in Israel, against MAGA extremism and to reduce inflation. That candidate is executing policies to reshore critical tech industries and reduce the effects of global warming. At the same time, he’s able to run an aggressive presidential campaign and lead powerful alliances in Asia and Europe to support democracy for the long term.
The other candidate grows more horrifyingly unattractive every day. That candidate seems to be running on an unrecognizable vision of American decline in a dystopian Zombie movie, entertaining to some of his MAGA base but far from the outlook of most Americans. How many of us are worried about electrocution vs. shark attacks?
If it wasn’t obvious at the beginning of 2020, it is now undeniable; Joe Biden is a true American political genius. We should be joyfully happy that Biden is willing to give the country another 4 years. We all need to work our tales off to get him elected.
Thanks so much for your excellent assessment of the age issue. It's an interesting place we're in; the GOP has nothing to run on except disparaging Biden's age. Too bad for them, the President's mental acuity is obviously formidable. As a binary choice in the voting both, will the majority of Americans vote For Biden's current performance with an excellent agenda for the future or for a guy who's worried about death by electrocution vs shark attacks? Where the rubber meets the road, I think we win hands down.
It's important to recast "the age issue" as an experience issue. [as Simon points out]. Biden is way out in front on that. Think FDR. note that T has the frailty of advancing age and no experience to bring to the table.
I just can't see how any open minded independent, trying to compare Biden's mental capacity to Trump, could ever vote for Trump. Certainly no Dems could. So that leaves the MAGA and diehard GOPers to think Trump's shriveled brain is up to the task of the Presidency.
My comment is more about how to recast the 'age' issue in discussion. In Biden's case age goes along with experience, valuable to us as a country. I think people supporting T use him to arouse emotions. imo whether from fear, stress, other factors Mary Trump speaks of, or physical deterioration, is not , as you say, 'up to the task'
May I quote you? President Biden should be cruising to an easy landslide. He WILL win by a landslide if we all do our parts. Yes, I know all the data say this will be a close election, and I have no particular reason to doubt that. That said, however, our GOAL should be a landslide, the mother of all landslides. Among other reasons, the bigger the margin of victory, the harder it will be for MAGA to press the case that we cheated.
Speaking of cheating, the thing that most reduces me to a state of panic is that Trump allegedly announced to a religious convention in Detroit that they shouldn’t worry about votes. He said “we don’t need your votes. The RNC is taking care of it.” Think about that. “The RNC is taking care of it.” He means one of two things: 1. the fix is in and the election has already been stolen; 2. Team Felon at least already has a massive voter suppression operation on the ground. He was telling those people they don’t need to worry about votes because he has a plan to destroy ours.
If he has in fact already stolen the election, we have a whole new ballgame. I can’t go there right now, I really can’t, and I pray we never have to.
Scenario 2 is more likely, and what Felon Trump said to those people is just another reason why we all need to double down on our efforts for President Biden to crush him under the biggest landslide in history. We need to have enough votes in both the popular vote and the electoral college that we can afford to lose a significant amount of them when team Trump pulls its dirty tricks.
I've been reading lately that the GOP is super bullish on Virginia this year. I know one reason are some polls showing Trump and Bisen tied, and another is Trump bluster. But wondering what a sober look at the data says? Maybe this is a big nothingburger, or maybe a new front should be opened here to secure the votes?
My affection and respect for Old Joe just keeps growing. In what seems almost supernatural, given this political environment, his list of real accomplishments is amazing. I consider him to be a transformational prez, close to Lincoln and FDR. It has struck me that these 3 men all had very personal struggles - Lincoln with depression and the deaths of his kids, FDR with polio, Biden with the traumatic loss of beloveds and stuttering. Through force of character and attachment to ideals, they managed to rise above what might have kept others captured by ill-fortune. I know many people worry that even if the other candidate loses in November, his malignancy will haunt our country into the future. I, on the other hand, expect that when Biden wins in November, the 4 years of his second term will put us on a steady path to 'a more perfect union.'
Yes, he shuffles, he doesn't talk so good, he's old as sin, but his vision for our country and his ability to get 'er done has few equals.
While character is an important message deserving of ad buys, what is equally if not more important is the obliteration of freedoms by Trump and maga party--women's reproductive rights (all that this encompasses), and all others--voting, book access, LGBTQ, ETC. And laying the blame w/ Trump and his Supreme Court and why these rights must be restored w/ D appointments to Court and D's elected up and down the ballot--preserving Senate maj and regaining maj in House. This is the youth vote, also many I's and some never Trumpers-- and has to be pursued aggressively, hammered home.
Friends these ad campaigns are like chess. You move one piece at a time. The last set of ads focused on Jan 6th and the attack on our freedoms. This one focuses on his criminality.
Elderly voters who are eager to give up their Social Security and healthcare should consider voting for Trump. Elderly voters who are sane, and who value their health and retirement, must vote for Biden and Blue up and down the ballot!
Happy to see we have a new goal for winning the house because we exceeded the previous one! I personally didn’t contribute here, so am extra grateful to everyone who did. I gave to Ruben Gallego a day or two ago, and very much hope we will soon 🔜 blow past that goal. Kari Lake is super despicable.
538 how has trump favored. With all the damage trump has done to this country, its unbelievable that this election is so close. That more people shoud be so incensed at this guy. And things seem to be in reverse. Seniors are more likely to vote for Biden instead of trump and young voters not so sure.
Wait, just the other day they had Biden favored. "First ya say ya do, and then ya say ya don't..." my back of the envelope calculations and discussions with man on the street reveal no one who wants to see trump anywhere but in the park doing cleanup with an ankle bracelet on community service, preferably cleaning dog poop.
I believe that 538's editor commented that it didn't make sense to pay attention to their polling aggregation until September (someone can correct me if I'm mischaracterizing his statement).
Was there any public polling of last week's special election in Ohio? I know special elections can be tough to poll, but I'm curious how far off the mark the polls were from the results.
"Let he who did not bang a porn-star, while his third wife was pregnant with his fifth child, throw the first stone."
Friends, we need to stop nitpicking these ads and just promote the crap out of them to our networks. I find these kinds of they need to be doing "X" deeply tiresome and unhelpful. Millions of dollars of research goes into developing these ads for a small number of targets in just a few states. They are not meant for you. We do more here, and worry less, and there is IMHO far too much nitpicking and ankle biting on exactly the ad many of you have pined for in recent months. Stay focused on the mission people. Thank you - the management
Simon, a small note: The only time I have found fault or been annoyed by a Biden Campaign ad was (I believe) a TikTok ad in which overly loud background music strongly competed with the narrator’s voice. (But as you say, that’s nitpicking.)
All in all, I think the Bide-Harris ads are masterful! Let’s make them seen and heard!
agree.
Is she a candidate?
Sorry what? - You'd like to anti-McConnell hate-give to fund the Faberge eggs at Amy McGrath's next concession gala? (there was an Onion article on that)
No, what needs to happen is the freaking population of Lexington, KY, maybe of Louisville too, and most of the minority population, needs to be airlifted or caravan'ed over to Ohio to make Ohio OK again.
Democratic standard-bearers for statewide elections in Kentucky that are worthy of investment/effort should all have the surname Beshear.
The Appalachian states are the longest reach and most inaccessible in the country. The "Tennessee Three" and their Memphis area constituents should move down to Mississippi to tip the state's racial demographic and flip the state's partisan lean.
My Mom's from Kentucky and I grew up visiting the grandparents and cousins in summers in the 70s and 80s. She's now the only one of our nuclear family residing in a mid-Atlantic state, and defines herself *against* her Kentucky background. Since I'm white, all my Kentucky relatives (who say anything political) are Republicans and Trumpers. At the outer fringes of the family, younger generation, there's one trans-person who probably is not. White, straight, Kentucky is lost pretty much.
I am all for geographically extensive Democratic Party strategies, and competing widely, and not just bunching up in metropolitan, coastal and blue states. I am intrigued by Charles Blow's concept of the reverse Great Migration to at least some southern states and potential political empowerment benefits. I think some southwestern and mountain states, could, in the long run, have some potential to evolve favorably from their blue dots outward, with migration of blue-staters who like less expensive housing or easier access to the outdoors, sort of like how Vermont evolved from rock-ribbed Republican (anti-FDR in 1936!) to Bernie Sanders-ville. But, we've only got so much peanut butter and jelly (center-left and progressive voters) to spread around, and some of the national "bread" may have to be left uncovered. For me, I'm picking out West Virginia, KY, TN, Indiana, Arkansas, Utah, Oklahoma, and the line of the column of middle plains states north of it except for the Omaha blue dot as the write-offs, to concentrate on every place else in the country. We need to fight for, hold, win back, all the Great Lakes states except for Indiana. [I still can't figure out how Obama won that in 2008]
Simon, are you still seeing Biden strength with likely voters? I haven’t seen it reiterated in a while. Thanks!
Was wondering what you might think of Nate Cohn's piece yesterday in the NYT.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/upshot/election-democrats-republicans-turnout-trump.html
Who conducted the poll?
The piece is about NYT/Siena College polls (plural) "over the last year."
What’s the main thesis? I cancelled the times last month in protest over their Biden coverage. They are pretty raggy these days.
Sulzberger is openly hostile to Biden. Despite some good reporting etc. I believe that the NYT is objectively pro-Trump. I share your dismay. But I still haven't cancelled. Here (hopefully) is your "gift" link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/upshot/election-democrats-republicans-turnout-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.0U0.TXwR.87Au_P5MSc-x&smid=url-share
Two of the three leading presidential candidates are felons – and none is named Joe Biden:
– Donald J. Trump, convicted of 34 felony counts
– Robert F. Kennedy Jr, pled guilty to heroin possession
– (and Cornel West owes more than $ 500,000 in unpaid taxes and unpaid child support)
“Character Matters” has a different connotation to us than to MAGATS and to unpersuadables.
THEY want a rebel. In denial about convictions and rape.
Visceral stuff works. "Trump hates dogs' repeated repeatedly on Facebook pet sites, "not suckers ort losers" on military or history sites, "would you support someone who stole from kids with cancer" on chastity sites.
Here's proof. https://rvat.org/
“I like people who weren’t convicted.”
– Ghost of John McCain
Dan, it's probably best you leave out the "T" when you use MAGA. People might get the wrong idea.
Good ad! Keep ‘em coming!
Crossposting some good hopium from Jay Kuo today:
https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/blacks-for-trump-really
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/are-black-voters-deserting-biden/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Big takeaways from some of the first large-sample polling of Black voters this year (including in swing states): the sample population is basically as Democratic as ever, it generally approves of Biden and hates Trump's guts, and in the battlegrounds Biden has more of a consolidation task (pulling doubters back from Kennedy, West, and undecided) than a challenge from Trump.
It tracks with what we've seen from large Hispanic and Young voter samples: Biden has his doubters to win over, but Trump hasn't made much progress and isn't likely to.
Why I am Hopeful that Joe Biden will Win
Many of the Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 are somewhere between worry and terror that he might lose the presidency to Donald Trump in November. I am reasonably confident Joe Biden will win in November.
Here are my reasons for optimism:
While polls represent the opinion of a small number of voters at a fixed point in time, elections are a full expression of voters’ decision between candidates. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by 81 million to 74 million votes. Since then, pollsters, especially Nate Cohn’s NYTimes Siena poll, has created an intentionally misleading outlook for Biden in 2024.
Biden’s 2020 victory resulted from a choice by the majority of Americans to bring back responsible government, a forward-looking American agenda and reject Trump’s erratic, mean spirited, self-serving politics. The Trump of 2024 represents a more dangerous threat than he did in 2020. In addition to his constant lies, Trump is a rapist, a convicted felon, a financial fraudster, a threat to America’s national security, an election cheat and perhaps senile. So why would any of the 81 million Biden voters abandon him this November to vote for Trump or not vote? THEY WON’T. More likely, as the benefits of his policies become more widely recognized, Biden will pick up rather than lose voters to Trump.
However, ignoring the reality of Biden’s fundamental popularity, analysts and journalists daily warn Democrats that we should be very worried about losing for two reasons. First, Biden’s low popularity in the polls. Second, the president has old guy vibes and looks frail on TV.
Happily, Biden’s poll numbers have started rising in June. However, it’s hard to overstate the damage done to Biden’s campaign and the confidence of Democrats by the anti-Biden, gaslighting, New York Times/Sienna poll. Starting in 2023, the Times consistent election “story line” described Biden’s presidency as failing with low approval ratings. The Times poll results are widely quoted as national election “facts” by journalists across all media empowering “shock” news articles about Biden’s low prospects in 2024. The monthly drumbeat of negative Biden news has created an atmosphere of fear, dread and panic among Democrats, aided Trump’s dominance over the GOP and spread joy across the MAGA world.
How does the NYTimes poll mislead the public? By overcounting Trump-biased, MAGA participant groups in rural America. Its poll data is NOT a balanced picture of the political reality in America today but rather a snapshot of MAGA America. The Times polls include a significantly greater % of rural voters than can be justified by the demographics of America’s voting population. 22% of Americans live in rural counties. However, the Times poll has typically included 35% or more rural respondents, an overweighting of 59% in Trump America where he won in 2020 with 60% to 38% of the vote. To realistically interpret the Times polling data, Liberals should assume its polls and the journalists who quote it, are describing MAGA America, not the America where the majority of Biden’s 81 million voters live. It seems of late even Nate Cohn is waking up to his statistical aberration.
On a positive note, the Times poll results in May show Biden gaining ground. He’s leading in in Wisconsin and very close in 4 out of 5 others; VERY encouraging results for Joe Biden in a MAGA biased poll. If the Times adjusted its poll to 22% rural respondents, Biden would be ahead in 5 out of 6 swing states!
An interesting fact from the Times poll that Nate Cohn and the journalists NEVER report is that 70%-80% of all voters in swing states are “satisfied” or “somewhat satisfied” with their situation in America today. Journalist repeatedly report that the majority are very dissatisfied with Biden because of inflation. After all, who likes inflation? But, perhaps, most voters in the Times poll think the effect of inflation is not ruining their life and might not be a major factor in November.
Biden’s age as a competitive disadvantage compared to Trump defies reality as both candidates are much older than the traditional age for a presidential candidate. In November, voters will face a binary decision based on the current behavior and mental capacity of either candidate. One candidate is executing the responsibilities of the presidency every day. He is successfully fighting wars in the Ukraine, in Israel, against MAGA extremism and to reduce inflation. That candidate is executing policies to reshore critical tech industries and reduce the effects of global warming. At the same time, he’s able to run an aggressive presidential campaign and lead powerful alliances in Asia and Europe to support democracy for the long term.
The other candidate grows more horrifyingly unattractive every day. That candidate seems to be running on an unrecognizable vision of American decline in a dystopian Zombie movie, entertaining to some of his MAGA base but far from the outlook of most Americans. How many of us are worried about electrocution vs. shark attacks?
If it wasn’t obvious at the beginning of 2020, it is now undeniable; Joe Biden is a true American political genius. We should be joyfully happy that Biden is willing to give the country another 4 years. We all need to work our tales off to get him elected.
Hey Evan
Thanks so much for your excellent assessment of the age issue. It's an interesting place we're in; the GOP has nothing to run on except disparaging Biden's age. Too bad for them, the President's mental acuity is obviously formidable. As a binary choice in the voting both, will the majority of Americans vote For Biden's current performance with an excellent agenda for the future or for a guy who's worried about death by electrocution vs shark attacks? Where the rubber meets the road, I think we win hands down.
Unless they cheat. Which they will. We have to be ready for that. It’s one of the reasons we need to shoot for the mother of all landslides.
It's important to recast "the age issue" as an experience issue. [as Simon points out]. Biden is way out in front on that. Think FDR. note that T has the frailty of advancing age and no experience to bring to the table.
I just can't see how any open minded independent, trying to compare Biden's mental capacity to Trump, could ever vote for Trump. Certainly no Dems could. So that leaves the MAGA and diehard GOPers to think Trump's shriveled brain is up to the task of the Presidency.
My comment is more about how to recast the 'age' issue in discussion. In Biden's case age goes along with experience, valuable to us as a country. I think people supporting T use him to arouse emotions. imo whether from fear, stress, other factors Mary Trump speaks of, or physical deterioration, is not , as you say, 'up to the task'
May I quote you? President Biden should be cruising to an easy landslide. He WILL win by a landslide if we all do our parts. Yes, I know all the data say this will be a close election, and I have no particular reason to doubt that. That said, however, our GOAL should be a landslide, the mother of all landslides. Among other reasons, the bigger the margin of victory, the harder it will be for MAGA to press the case that we cheated.
Speaking of cheating, the thing that most reduces me to a state of panic is that Trump allegedly announced to a religious convention in Detroit that they shouldn’t worry about votes. He said “we don’t need your votes. The RNC is taking care of it.” Think about that. “The RNC is taking care of it.” He means one of two things: 1. the fix is in and the election has already been stolen; 2. Team Felon at least already has a massive voter suppression operation on the ground. He was telling those people they don’t need to worry about votes because he has a plan to destroy ours.
If he has in fact already stolen the election, we have a whole new ballgame. I can’t go there right now, I really can’t, and I pray we never have to.
Scenario 2 is more likely, and what Felon Trump said to those people is just another reason why we all need to double down on our efforts for President Biden to crush him under the biggest landslide in history. We need to have enough votes in both the popular vote and the electoral college that we can afford to lose a significant amount of them when team Trump pulls its dirty tricks.
I've been reading lately that the GOP is super bullish on Virginia this year. I know one reason are some polls showing Trump and Bisen tied, and another is Trump bluster. But wondering what a sober look at the data says? Maybe this is a big nothingburger, or maybe a new front should be opened here to secure the votes?
I've heard that, but I've also heard Rick Wilson this morning laughing at the very idea.
Why I'm hopeful:
Only people who are not happy with themselves are mean to others. Remember that.
When was this inverview with Anderson recorded? From some of her comments it didn't seem to be current.
It was a while back. As Simon notes, he's repeating it. She's doing a great job!
Thank you for clarifying. I missed Simon's mentioning that.
My affection and respect for Old Joe just keeps growing. In what seems almost supernatural, given this political environment, his list of real accomplishments is amazing. I consider him to be a transformational prez, close to Lincoln and FDR. It has struck me that these 3 men all had very personal struggles - Lincoln with depression and the deaths of his kids, FDR with polio, Biden with the traumatic loss of beloveds and stuttering. Through force of character and attachment to ideals, they managed to rise above what might have kept others captured by ill-fortune. I know many people worry that even if the other candidate loses in November, his malignancy will haunt our country into the future. I, on the other hand, expect that when Biden wins in November, the 4 years of his second term will put us on a steady path to 'a more perfect union.'
Yes, he shuffles, he doesn't talk so good, he's old as sin, but his vision for our country and his ability to get 'er done has few equals.
Berner here. I must say I’ve been pleasantly surprised by President Biden’s work so far.
While character is an important message deserving of ad buys, what is equally if not more important is the obliteration of freedoms by Trump and maga party--women's reproductive rights (all that this encompasses), and all others--voting, book access, LGBTQ, ETC. And laying the blame w/ Trump and his Supreme Court and why these rights must be restored w/ D appointments to Court and D's elected up and down the ballot--preserving Senate maj and regaining maj in House. This is the youth vote, also many I's and some never Trumpers-- and has to be pursued aggressively, hammered home.
Friends these ad campaigns are like chess. You move one piece at a time. The last set of ads focused on Jan 6th and the attack on our freedoms. This one focuses on his criminality.
Then explain why the documents case matters in the ad and what he’s indicted for
Simon,
I am pretty sure you saw this article from the WSJ on the importance of older voters this cycle (https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/bidens-secret-weapon-against-trump-older-voters-f87e861b), but I was just curious if you had any thoughts on this dynamic for the next blog post.
Elderly voters who are eager to give up their Social Security and healthcare should consider voting for Trump. Elderly voters who are sane, and who value their health and retirement, must vote for Biden and Blue up and down the ballot!
Happy to see we have a new goal for winning the house because we exceeded the previous one! I personally didn’t contribute here, so am extra grateful to everyone who did. I gave to Ruben Gallego a day or two ago, and very much hope we will soon 🔜 blow past that goal. Kari Lake is super despicable.
538 how has trump favored. With all the damage trump has done to this country, its unbelievable that this election is so close. That more people shoud be so incensed at this guy. And things seem to be in reverse. Seniors are more likely to vote for Biden instead of trump and young voters not so sure.
Wait, just the other day they had Biden favored. "First ya say ya do, and then ya say ya don't..." my back of the envelope calculations and discussions with man on the street reveal no one who wants to see trump anywhere but in the park doing cleanup with an ankle bracelet on community service, preferably cleaning dog poop.
That community service sounds perfect! It solves the Secret Service problem and would hurt Trump in ways no other option could.
I believe that 538's editor commented that it didn't make sense to pay attention to their polling aggregation until September (someone can correct me if I'm mischaracterizing his statement).
Was there any public polling of last week's special election in Ohio? I know special elections can be tough to poll, but I'm curious how far off the mark the polls were from the results.
Did you catch David Pepper's deep dive on the OH-06 special election? If not you should definitely check it out!
https://open.substack.com/pub/davidpepper/p/analysis-the-oh-06-shocker?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Thanks for the link, that was an interesting and encouraging read!
Thanks for the link!
"538" had Hillary decisively winning for months and months.
The only poll I am interested in is on November 5th.