I wanted to mention that I watched an interview with Tom Bonier and local Dems in which Tom said that he now uses the term "low political information voters," rather than "low information voters," and I know he got that from you. Framing is important!
Re immigration: I think we need to keep pointing out that Democrats negotiated bipartisan legislation that addressed ALL of our border/immigration issues, including hiring enough immigration judges, and Trump ordered Republicans to not even give it a vote because he wanted to "run on the issue." I was at a meeting of local Dems this week where one of the people was bemoaning how weak Biden was on immigration. I reminded them of that legislation and they said, "Oh, yeah, I'd forgotten about that." Which is easy to do with all the nonsense flooding the zone, but I think it's a very important point to keep making. Instead of the evil and chaos we're seeing now, we could have addressed the issues in a sane, sensible, humane way.
I'm writing postcards to North Carolina voters today.
While reading today’s excellent post, I was wondering how I was going to be able to help communicate our message. I don’t have social media and only a few Republicans that I talk to about anything. But yes, i can certainly remind Democrats about Biden’s immigration agenda and all the other things on today’s list of what we stand for.
Messaging to left-leaning friends is important as well! I still have friends who are hiding under their covers because they're so overwhelmed and in denial. I'm working on an email that I plan to blast out next week that encourages people to do one thing every day to promote and defend democracy. We need to wake up liberals as much as we need to message to low political information folks.
I Elizabeth... I do this regularly. Just a piece of unasked for advice: Keep the letter short and light. I notice my friends are grateful but they don't like to receive lectures. Have at it!
I have plenty of friends and family like that, and I notice that the fear is real among them, even though they are in less real danger from this regime than most people. I suspect the paralysis and lack of action is feeding the fear.
I can't wait to hear how that works. I have been trying to get some of my liberal friends to do *anything* since early 2024.
And some have, finally! Three people went to protests for the first time ever on June 14. Another friend went to a town hall (she has a Democratic rep). One has started writing postcards with me and is even thinking about canvassing.
There are numerous post carding and letter writing groups that you can join to get our message out. You will not believe how much better your handwriting gets after you crank out a couple dozen postcards.
Thank you for the suggestions. I actually write hundreds of postcards, but they are either for a specific campaign (I like Postcards to Voters) or for our local democratic club's planned canvassing to increase community and membership. We are writing thousands of the things, but there are a lot of us. (I write them with a fountain pen and document grade blue ink.)
I'll be out walking too, since we are doing deep canvassing this year. But that is more about listening than talking. However, we will have literature, including postcards, to hand out, and my field team hasn't finalized the list. So that's an opportunity.
Simon's list got me excited and I was trying to think of even *more* ways to get a positive message out, maybe break through on my few Republican friends, and get my Democratic friends doing the same. Some are active and some I am still working on.
I really appreciate you taking the time to encourage activism. That was really nice.
YES! Agree 100%, that whole thing blocking Biden era legislation really pissed me off, bc I knew exactly where it was going. F them and their racist immigration tactics (not calling them policies).
I think the notion that Biden was weak on immigration is right-wing disinformation. All that "open borders" crap. Our southern border hasn't been truly open, as in no control of crossings at all, in about a century, if I remember right.
Also, Trump1's numbers on apprehensions at the border and such were heavily influenced by covid.
I wish democrats would run your “we believe “ statements in every newspaper and on every commercial. They need to get on tv and social media with clever graphics to get the we believe statements into the atmosphere! Dems are too silent and let republicans control the narrative!
if you write this in good faith, and are not just dem bashing, turn your comment around into what you are doing to address a need you perceive - I react to yours and such comments b/c I am a busy person. very annoying when ppl come on our comment thread talking about what someone else should do.
Of course Trump’s support would erode quickly. Joe Biden had the best economy since the 1960’s and most US citizens still weren’t satisfied. Trump tore it all apart. Now citizens are even more miserable. Trump promised instant gratification; low prices, everything will be wonderful. It didn’t happen. I’m surprised how high his pole numbers still are.
Susan, responding here, with respect. 1) No "of courses" in our business. We never know how things are going to turn out. We can believe something is likely, but forces must align to make it so. Nothing just happens. 2) This idea that Trump's numbers are still too high is a terrible and destructive meme wandering through out movement for it both diminishes the accomplishment of having moved these numbers - congrats all - and is ignorant of the dynamics of polling. His floor is probably around 40% and we are getting very close to it now.
You've got an interesting point there, Susan, that the incessant right-wing noise about the econony during Biden's term, when we in fact had an economy that was the envy of the world and the best job market of my life, may have set trump voters up to be disappointed now.
If people thought that was a terrible economy and now it's worse, well...
It's hard to remember that plenty of trump voters sincerely believe that propaganda, so reality can be a surprise.
Thank you for your comments. I appreciate that you understood where I was coming from. Simon did not appreciate them and felt I was bringing everyone down.
Simon I completely agree with these points. We are living amidst such unprecedented times that it is difficult to predict what we simply don't know. Conventional wisdom still exists enough to prevail against seeming odds. However, the majority of our current climate is quite unconventional. As you said concerning forces aligning, I am consistently encouraged not just by the actions taken by our community, but by citizens and pro-democracy warriors in positions of power/leadership. 14 million strong on the prior No Kings Day is no small feat. There is most definitely a movement unfolding on the ground that includes all political walks of life. As Tara Setmayer of Senneca Project and even both Rachel Maddow and Lawrence O'Donnell have all professed (being the astute students of history they are, with keen eyes on the ground), "We will NOT be the generation who lets our Democracy fall!" I firmly believe that to be true.
To your point about his approval rating, I have a feeling in reality; his numbers/approval rating is actually lower than that of near 40%. However, that's difficult to prove within the polling industry because as you well know, even our most reliable polling is never 100% accurate rather instead, a fairly realistic representation/gist of the approval/momentum as it stands. I would love to see his numbers publicly drop below 40% which would likely effectuate a swift turning/backlash from many within the GOP. Nevertheless, God knows what will motivate them to grow a spine or pull a 'Tillis' at this point if they haven't already. Yes, when all set and done, most politicians both parties alike care most about being re-elected (right, wrong, or indifferent). So, inevitably, the GOP will increasingly turn against Trump as the pressures grow more intense against them from both donors and constituents. Shamefully so, it's taken much too long. Not to mention, we obviously should never have been in this position to begin with had Garland and others taken a more aggressive lead from the get-go. In a 'normal' America, Trump would have been arrested Jan 7th, 2021, or by Jan 21st, 2021, at latest. That said, we are where we are.
Furthermore, I wanted to ask your opinion on something, but I also do not want to stoke any unnecessary fear or put this too far out into the ether. Mainly just curious about your reaction or your take. The other day, Charlamagne Tha God, made a comment, fomenting a conspiracy theory by stating -- the lack of pushback from the GOP to the BBB, some of whom openly admit its passage was essentially political suicide, suggests the fix is already in so to speak and that they may know while highly unpopular, they have somehow rigged it behind the scenes to win the midterms ahead of time. On one hand, I understand his concerns and skepticism as it does seem almost "too good to be true" in that the GOP have practically signed their death warrant. On the other hand, perhaps it's actually not 'too good to be true' at all. Sometimes, things are actually that black and white and perhaps the GOP have totally worked themselves into a pretzel, blinded by their own power trip and ignorance, still not quite convinced they're potentially in for, and remain more or less convinced they have time to work the narrative. Like you said first thing, forces have to align to effect change. So, even in the best and most hopeful of circumstances that the bill's passing paves the way for a 'blue wave' of sorts, it is still upon us and the party to seize the messaging and invest heavily in the voting process/machinery/etc. to ensure that when all set and done, the midterm elections are conducted fairly and without untethered manipulation or too much big money influence. Surely, this recent Presidential election many of us feel, was not protected as vigorously as necessary.
All in all, I sense we are on the precipice of major shifts unfolding, for the good, and possibly in some ways far out of our control (but in a good way so to speak). We know how to adapt however as adaptation is the name of the game. Thank you as always for being such a fearless and pragmatic leader. Thank you as well for your collaboration with/promotion of our great Democracy Warriors like ---
Lawrence, Maddow, Wallace, Joy, Psaki, Lincoln Project (Rick Wilson, Stuart Stevens, Joe Trippi), Senneca Project's Tara Setmayer, Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherril, Jon Ossoff, Anderson Clayton, Jamie Raskin, AOC, Bernie, Chris Murphy, Ana Navarro, Ken Martin, Historians (Heather Cox Richardson, John Meecham, Alan Lichtman), Justices Jackson, Sotomayer, and Kegan, Governors Moore, Shapiro, Walz, Whitmer, Pritzker, Stein, Newsome, Beshear, Hochul, and of course, Kamala Harris, President Biden, and President Obama. We are all in this fight together and together, we are stronger and WILL prevail!!! This is just the beginning! Love and light to you and our community.
I agree with 99% of what you said here, Simon. I just have a question, actually: you don't think the floor is *technically* lower?
To be sure, it is hard to know what kind of event could trigger the equivalent of an immediate post-January 6 polling bottom or a Charlottesville polling bottom (mid-to-high 30s), but I still tend to think such an event is possible.
Maybe it involves him actually trying to enforce his tariffs for a sustained period of time and causing clear and undeniable short-term economic damage apparent even to MAGA groups (that would be horrible, but I am just trying to lay out what could possibly happen, not what I want to happen). Or maybe it involves something that resembles another January 6 (that would be terrifying, but I am just trying to lay out what could possibly happen, not what I want to happen).
Or maybe it simply involves MAGA backlash on something like this Epstein Files controvery going around (that would be the preferable option of the three).
But I don't know. Hard to predict exactly. Hopefully Trump can simply unravel the coalition by mishandling some more stuff like the Epstein story. Because that, oddly enough, would be most effective at undermining the most basic reasons that MAGA has such faith in him, I think.
Unfortunately, the idea of “only supporting winnable candidates” has infiltrated the Dem party and prevented investing in rural red communities furthering the challenges we face during election.
Living in one of those areas in California, SD4 and CD5 and as dem chair, it is a large uphill battle where we are largely ignored by the party and thus have to work so much harder to get viable candidates elected.
Both of these races have dem candidates, and even Indivisible is ignoring McClintock by not investing in billboards for that race. The state doesn’t mention him and it becomes a spiral into despair.
We need fundraising for these areas so that we can do the work that the party doesn’t help us do.
The two candidates are Jaron Brandon for SD4 votejaron.com
Hey Niki, I have friends who used to live in Tuolomne County and know what you are up against. Bless you. Are those state or federal races you are referring to? Not sure what SD4 means, but guess CD5 is congressional district 5, i.e. a house race.
Yes. It is not easy to say the least. SD4 is state senate. The largest state senate district spanning from Truckee/South Lake Tahoe, all the way south to Death Valley and including Stanislaus County and parts of Madera County. The current incumbent switched from Dem to Republican last year and went all the way to Washington DC to support the disaster bill.
CD5 is congressional district at R+15. Rough. But winnable. McClintock continues to say in “Doge We Trust” at every moment he can.
Our Indivisible Healdsburg team led a community meeting last night to write postcards and make protest signs while snacking on Popcorn. Not a huge turnout, but very convivial and some new faces. I also set up a venting corner where you could throw beanbags at a large outline of a MAGA person. We also encouraged people to add the name of the person they most wanted to throw something at along the edges. It was enthusiastically received - people listed JD, Trump, ICE, Stephen Miller, etc. The beanbags (from my cornhole set) made a very satisfying womp against the image. One of my favorite signs that was made was “our huddled masses will beat your fascist asses.”
Thank you Simon for this great information. I am passing it on ASAP. Among other things, protests & Indivisible activities, I'm post card captain for my Sister District group in Portland, OR (blue states. help red states at the state legislative level) - just sent off a huge mailing -- now planning Wave 2; we're helping candidates in VA; so think about the States too, so important, where so many draconian laws get passed & less money is required for wins.
Again, Thank You, Thank You, Thank Yo to Simon and this fantastic community!
Whoa that is a tough, tough question. My head says Stephen Miller, but my heart say Kristi Noem... and I have a special place for Lindsey Graham too, maybe send him a tomato... lol.
This is a great idea and great therapy... perhaps it will go viral across the land.
I have heard that the Dems focus on candidates and the short-term (disbanding organizations after each election) whereas the Republicans focus on their long-term vision and build organizations that persist over time. If this is an accurate take, I’d like to hear Ken Martin’s thoughts.
Thank you for these invaluable video updates with frontline warriors in the principled legal and political fight against T’s lawlessness and his dishonorable legislative lackeys. The interview today, with AG Phil Weiser, is another reminder of what’s at stake and how the unrelenting work of Blue state AGs is THE key to ensuring the Constitution remains the law of the land.
My MAGA rep and the subject of tariffs. Several hundred followers on his social media page exposed to the following:
"Donald Trump is a horrible human being." Announces Japan's ruling (LDP) party policy chairman and Member of Japan's House of Representatives, Itsunori Onodera, in response to Trump's recent tariff letter.
Japan is America's largest source of foreign investment, and they host many of our military bases. The Japanese are usually very restrained in their language, and so this startled me. (Japan holds national elections on the 20th.)
Trump/MAGA are destroying everything in their path. Four seats mark the difference in power in the House. Once AZ fills their vacant seat in the 7th, the difference will be three.
Thanks for this Thomas. The world sees what is happening here and they know it's Trump, not the vast majority of the American people. That gives me hope for a future when we are finally rid of MAGA and, knowing we almost lost everything, we have a new energy to get closer and closer to the aspirations of our founding documents.
And thank you, Kent, for your kind words. I believe the key insight will be this -- referring to our founding documents:
The Framers affirmed that We the People retain "innumerable" powers not specifically given to government. "A republic, if YOU can keep it" -- means we owe it to ourselves to use those unwritten powers when the situation requires it.
When confronted with an unfaithful Member of congress, I don't believe for a second that the Founders would have advised "wait for mid-terms" when our republic is at risk now. They set the bar high for other Members to remove MY Member -- which is fine -- but it should be as easy for me and my fellow citizens (in a district) to FIRE a dishonest and disloyal member as it is for a boss to fire a dishonest employee. Most Americans seem to go through life not believing that, acting as though they had no agency or choice.
And that is what drives a lack of faith in our system. The people of Japan and the rest of the world are counting on US, not our "system."
Thank you Simon. I just send the Gallup polling info to Senators Durbin and Duckworth and Representative Sorensen and asked them to ramp up the fight against the immorality and shame of the ICE raids, Noem, Trump, and Rubio. The images of putting good law-abiding people in cages makes me sick to my stomach and we should fight this tirelessly. We are better than this, and the Gallup findings bear that out. We wouldn't treat animals this way and we must find a way to stop this. I also thank them every day for their service - I am so proud to live in Illinois. Hang in there y'all. Our resistance is working. Kent
wouldn't it be great if the lame MSM had headlines like "Americans to pay 50% extra for anything they buy from Brazil" and "Americans to pay an additional 35% on any imports from Canada". They would get the idea pretty quickly.
We need to start talking about how we are going to counter the use of force to round up undocumented immigrants, those who have lost their status and likely US citizens. A force of 10,000+ ICE soldiers (because that is how they are gearing up) will rip our country apart. The non-violence of No Kings Day prevented an overreaction by Trump, but we are going have to start training people for Gandhi-type non-violent actions, or come up with other ways to counter this. We can see it coming. Trump recently was quoted as saying, "You know that? I really do, I hate them. I cannot stand them, because I really believe they hate our country, you want to know the truth,” the president told the crowd. We can see that once a $40 billion dollar infrastructure is put in place it is unlikely that Trump will stop with "violent illegal immigrants with criminal records," he will be coming for those who oppose his policies. Not sure that bad polling numbers is going to stop him. Are plans being made? Troops used violence at two California farms yesterday, that is only going to get worse. What are we going to do when he unleashes his new force the 1 million people in southern Florida who just lost their legal statuses?
Thank you for the great & inspiring interview w AG Weiser, who was very impressive. I can't wait to hear from AG Platkin! :)
FYI, I am thrilled to announce that Sen. Booker, along w Sen. Padilla, has introduced the Visible Identification Standards for Immigration-Based Law Enforcement (VISIBLE) Act of 2025 —S. 2212-- which would force ICE agents to unmask and wear ID. Please ask your senators to sign on as co-sponsors!
Yesterday, I attended a wonderful presentation by Johns Hopkins Ctr for Gun Violence Solutions on firearm permitting and how successful it is at reducing gun violence. Rep. Raskin somehow managed to have enough time in his day to participate, and was, as always, wonderful. He gave a detailed background on the constitutionality of mandatory firearm permitting.
Also, I attended another DNC training last night. It was the first in the two-part trainings that they're doing as part of Organizing Summer. I had already done this training but needed refresher, and have signed up for part 2, in which they'll drill down on how to organize and do outreach in your community and groups. Not very many folks had signed up, so I think they just need to push this out in as many ways as they can and just have a more aggressive comms strategy for it. I just don't think it's breaking through yet, and I would really like to hear what Chair Martin has to say about that.
Finally, I am going to do a similar outreach training w the DCCC and would like to hear from Chair Martin more about how $ and training are being pushed to the states for voter reg. Working on some VA postcards (if you need stamps, buy 'em now BC the price is going up next week!)
Thanks so much for all the info and all you are doing! Jamie Raskin is an unbelievably principled human who is also a wonderful man. Could you share the link(s) to organizing Summer? It is not specially listed on the DNC site. Thanks.
Yep, and FWIW that is part of the problem! They don't seem to be getting that it's not particularly easy to find this stuff, and it should be! Here is the webpage w all the good links: https://democrats.org/take-action-organizing-summer/
Second major article about our Resolution and it getting blocked, this one with no paywall. Get ready to groan, cringe, or yell at the blocking Councilor's comment - he wants to check with the Navy. 😫🤯 Alternatively, he could check with his immigrant, LGBTQ, student, senior, veteran, small business, food insecure, or most other constituents. Or he could remember the oaths he's taken. What a hard task it is to get him and other blockers-in-office to break their usual behaviors.
Other reports: ran two candidate forums this week, mentored a new activist in a nearby community about candidate forums, planned with a team for our Good Trouble event on July 17
Thanks for the update via the article. Hang in there Rachel, this may not happen overnight, but it will happen. Thank you for your leadership. I found the Boston declaration very inspiring and helpful in crafting our draft delcaration for Monterey County, CA.
Oh great; I'm glad it helped. Yeah, it'll happen. In fact, the committee it was moved to has the Resolution sponsors as chair and vice chair. The delay is just acting out behavior.
Simon, I am the lead for the Union in Virginia. We are seeking help for a worthy candidate in Spotsylvania County for Board of Supervisors. Marcus A Garcia 719 232 9764 marcus.a.garcia3@gmail.com
Thanks, Simon!
I wanted to mention that I watched an interview with Tom Bonier and local Dems in which Tom said that he now uses the term "low political information voters," rather than "low information voters," and I know he got that from you. Framing is important!
Re immigration: I think we need to keep pointing out that Democrats negotiated bipartisan legislation that addressed ALL of our border/immigration issues, including hiring enough immigration judges, and Trump ordered Republicans to not even give it a vote because he wanted to "run on the issue." I was at a meeting of local Dems this week where one of the people was bemoaning how weak Biden was on immigration. I reminded them of that legislation and they said, "Oh, yeah, I'd forgotten about that." Which is easy to do with all the nonsense flooding the zone, but I think it's a very important point to keep making. Instead of the evil and chaos we're seeing now, we could have addressed the issues in a sane, sensible, humane way.
I'm writing postcards to North Carolina voters today.
While reading today’s excellent post, I was wondering how I was going to be able to help communicate our message. I don’t have social media and only a few Republicans that I talk to about anything. But yes, i can certainly remind Democrats about Biden’s immigration agenda and all the other things on today’s list of what we stand for.
Messaging to left-leaning friends is important as well! I still have friends who are hiding under their covers because they're so overwhelmed and in denial. I'm working on an email that I plan to blast out next week that encourages people to do one thing every day to promote and defend democracy. We need to wake up liberals as much as we need to message to low political information folks.
I Elizabeth... I do this regularly. Just a piece of unasked for advice: Keep the letter short and light. I notice my friends are grateful but they don't like to receive lectures. Have at it!
I have plenty of friends and family like that, and I notice that the fear is real among them, even though they are in less real danger from this regime than most people. I suspect the paralysis and lack of action is feeding the fear.
I can't wait to hear how that works. I have been trying to get some of my liberal friends to do *anything* since early 2024.
And some have, finally! Three people went to protests for the first time ever on June 14. Another friend went to a town hall (she has a Democratic rep). One has started writing postcards with me and is even thinking about canvassing.
There are numerous post carding and letter writing groups that you can join to get our message out. You will not believe how much better your handwriting gets after you crank out a couple dozen postcards.
Thank you for the suggestions. I actually write hundreds of postcards, but they are either for a specific campaign (I like Postcards to Voters) or for our local democratic club's planned canvassing to increase community and membership. We are writing thousands of the things, but there are a lot of us. (I write them with a fountain pen and document grade blue ink.)
I'll be out walking too, since we are doing deep canvassing this year. But that is more about listening than talking. However, we will have literature, including postcards, to hand out, and my field team hasn't finalized the list. So that's an opportunity.
Simon's list got me excited and I was trying to think of even *more* ways to get a positive message out, maybe break through on my few Republican friends, and get my Democratic friends doing the same. Some are active and some I am still working on.
I really appreciate you taking the time to encourage activism. That was really nice.
YES! Agree 100%, that whole thing blocking Biden era legislation really pissed me off, bc I knew exactly where it was going. F them and their racist immigration tactics (not calling them policies).
Great point, and it was a deal that gave the GOP a lot of what they wanted- Lankford from OK supported it .
I think the notion that Biden was weak on immigration is right-wing disinformation. All that "open borders" crap. Our southern border hasn't been truly open, as in no control of crossings at all, in about a century, if I remember right.
Also, Trump1's numbers on apprehensions at the border and such were heavily influenced by covid.
Here’s a Rebecca Solnit post about immigrants. Wide ranging, truthful, and deeply relevant:
https://www.meditationsinanemergency.com/immigrants-a-love-letter/
Please include your weekly Hopium update in the podcast feed as well. That way we can listen on the road or away from home without a screen. Thanks!
Hey Mark, apologies for the late release of the presentation this week on Apple Podcasts. I had an issue yesterday with the audio upload. The episode is now available: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-passage-of-the-big-ugly-has-given-us-a/id1818118673?i=1000716722785
I wish democrats would run your “we believe “ statements in every newspaper and on every commercial. They need to get on tv and social media with clever graphics to get the we believe statements into the atmosphere! Dems are too silent and let republicans control the narrative!
if you write this in good faith, and are not just dem bashing, turn your comment around into what you are doing to address a need you perceive - I react to yours and such comments b/c I am a busy person. very annoying when ppl come on our comment thread talking about what someone else should do.
Please write a letter to your local paper with those statements!
Of course Trump’s support would erode quickly. Joe Biden had the best economy since the 1960’s and most US citizens still weren’t satisfied. Trump tore it all apart. Now citizens are even more miserable. Trump promised instant gratification; low prices, everything will be wonderful. It didn’t happen. I’m surprised how high his pole numbers still are.
Susan, responding here, with respect. 1) No "of courses" in our business. We never know how things are going to turn out. We can believe something is likely, but forces must align to make it so. Nothing just happens. 2) This idea that Trump's numbers are still too high is a terrible and destructive meme wandering through out movement for it both diminishes the accomplishment of having moved these numbers - congrats all - and is ignorant of the dynamics of polling. His floor is probably around 40% and we are getting very close to it now.
Apologies. Had no intention of bringing anyone down.
You've got an interesting point there, Susan, that the incessant right-wing noise about the econony during Biden's term, when we in fact had an economy that was the envy of the world and the best job market of my life, may have set trump voters up to be disappointed now.
If people thought that was a terrible economy and now it's worse, well...
It's hard to remember that plenty of trump voters sincerely believe that propaganda, so reality can be a surprise.
Thank you for your comments. I appreciate that you understood where I was coming from. Simon did not appreciate them and felt I was bringing everyone down.
Your comment didn't bring me down at all -- I agree!
I thought you were spot on and opined as a realist..
Simon I completely agree with these points. We are living amidst such unprecedented times that it is difficult to predict what we simply don't know. Conventional wisdom still exists enough to prevail against seeming odds. However, the majority of our current climate is quite unconventional. As you said concerning forces aligning, I am consistently encouraged not just by the actions taken by our community, but by citizens and pro-democracy warriors in positions of power/leadership. 14 million strong on the prior No Kings Day is no small feat. There is most definitely a movement unfolding on the ground that includes all political walks of life. As Tara Setmayer of Senneca Project and even both Rachel Maddow and Lawrence O'Donnell have all professed (being the astute students of history they are, with keen eyes on the ground), "We will NOT be the generation who lets our Democracy fall!" I firmly believe that to be true.
To your point about his approval rating, I have a feeling in reality; his numbers/approval rating is actually lower than that of near 40%. However, that's difficult to prove within the polling industry because as you well know, even our most reliable polling is never 100% accurate rather instead, a fairly realistic representation/gist of the approval/momentum as it stands. I would love to see his numbers publicly drop below 40% which would likely effectuate a swift turning/backlash from many within the GOP. Nevertheless, God knows what will motivate them to grow a spine or pull a 'Tillis' at this point if they haven't already. Yes, when all set and done, most politicians both parties alike care most about being re-elected (right, wrong, or indifferent). So, inevitably, the GOP will increasingly turn against Trump as the pressures grow more intense against them from both donors and constituents. Shamefully so, it's taken much too long. Not to mention, we obviously should never have been in this position to begin with had Garland and others taken a more aggressive lead from the get-go. In a 'normal' America, Trump would have been arrested Jan 7th, 2021, or by Jan 21st, 2021, at latest. That said, we are where we are.
Furthermore, I wanted to ask your opinion on something, but I also do not want to stoke any unnecessary fear or put this too far out into the ether. Mainly just curious about your reaction or your take. The other day, Charlamagne Tha God, made a comment, fomenting a conspiracy theory by stating -- the lack of pushback from the GOP to the BBB, some of whom openly admit its passage was essentially political suicide, suggests the fix is already in so to speak and that they may know while highly unpopular, they have somehow rigged it behind the scenes to win the midterms ahead of time. On one hand, I understand his concerns and skepticism as it does seem almost "too good to be true" in that the GOP have practically signed their death warrant. On the other hand, perhaps it's actually not 'too good to be true' at all. Sometimes, things are actually that black and white and perhaps the GOP have totally worked themselves into a pretzel, blinded by their own power trip and ignorance, still not quite convinced they're potentially in for, and remain more or less convinced they have time to work the narrative. Like you said first thing, forces have to align to effect change. So, even in the best and most hopeful of circumstances that the bill's passing paves the way for a 'blue wave' of sorts, it is still upon us and the party to seize the messaging and invest heavily in the voting process/machinery/etc. to ensure that when all set and done, the midterm elections are conducted fairly and without untethered manipulation or too much big money influence. Surely, this recent Presidential election many of us feel, was not protected as vigorously as necessary.
All in all, I sense we are on the precipice of major shifts unfolding, for the good, and possibly in some ways far out of our control (but in a good way so to speak). We know how to adapt however as adaptation is the name of the game. Thank you as always for being such a fearless and pragmatic leader. Thank you as well for your collaboration with/promotion of our great Democracy Warriors like ---
Lawrence, Maddow, Wallace, Joy, Psaki, Lincoln Project (Rick Wilson, Stuart Stevens, Joe Trippi), Senneca Project's Tara Setmayer, Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherril, Jon Ossoff, Anderson Clayton, Jamie Raskin, AOC, Bernie, Chris Murphy, Ana Navarro, Ken Martin, Historians (Heather Cox Richardson, John Meecham, Alan Lichtman), Justices Jackson, Sotomayer, and Kegan, Governors Moore, Shapiro, Walz, Whitmer, Pritzker, Stein, Newsome, Beshear, Hochul, and of course, Kamala Harris, President Biden, and President Obama. We are all in this fight together and together, we are stronger and WILL prevail!!! This is just the beginning! Love and light to you and our community.
I agree with 99% of what you said here, Simon. I just have a question, actually: you don't think the floor is *technically* lower?
To be sure, it is hard to know what kind of event could trigger the equivalent of an immediate post-January 6 polling bottom or a Charlottesville polling bottom (mid-to-high 30s), but I still tend to think such an event is possible.
Maybe it involves him actually trying to enforce his tariffs for a sustained period of time and causing clear and undeniable short-term economic damage apparent even to MAGA groups (that would be horrible, but I am just trying to lay out what could possibly happen, not what I want to happen). Or maybe it involves something that resembles another January 6 (that would be terrifying, but I am just trying to lay out what could possibly happen, not what I want to happen).
Or maybe it simply involves MAGA backlash on something like this Epstein Files controvery going around (that would be the preferable option of the three).
But I don't know. Hard to predict exactly. Hopefully Trump can simply unravel the coalition by mishandling some more stuff like the Epstein story. Because that, oddly enough, would be most effective at undermining the most basic reasons that MAGA has such faith in him, I think.
Great news from the polls!
How do we get key races on your radar?
Unfortunately, the idea of “only supporting winnable candidates” has infiltrated the Dem party and prevented investing in rural red communities furthering the challenges we face during election.
Living in one of those areas in California, SD4 and CD5 and as dem chair, it is a large uphill battle where we are largely ignored by the party and thus have to work so much harder to get viable candidates elected.
Both of these races have dem candidates, and even Indivisible is ignoring McClintock by not investing in billboards for that race. The state doesn’t mention him and it becomes a spiral into despair.
We need fundraising for these areas so that we can do the work that the party doesn’t help us do.
The two candidates are Jaron Brandon for SD4 votejaron.com
and Mike Masuda CD5 Votemasuda.com.
We have the energy but none of the support.
Thank you for all that you do!
Niki Hurtado
Chair, Tuolumne County Democratic Central Committee
Hi Niki. Glad to see you here. 🤓
Hi!
Hey Niki, I have friends who used to live in Tuolomne County and know what you are up against. Bless you. Are those state or federal races you are referring to? Not sure what SD4 means, but guess CD5 is congressional district 5, i.e. a house race.
Yes. It is not easy to say the least. SD4 is state senate. The largest state senate district spanning from Truckee/South Lake Tahoe, all the way south to Death Valley and including Stanislaus County and parts of Madera County. The current incumbent switched from Dem to Republican last year and went all the way to Washington DC to support the disaster bill.
CD5 is congressional district at R+15. Rough. But winnable. McClintock continues to say in “Doge We Trust” at every moment he can.
Act Blue page? (and then post it here and on DailyKos to get eyeballs) Work with Postcards to Voters to start a postcard campaign?
Happily!
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jaron-brandon-1
A quick self report.
Our Indivisible Healdsburg team led a community meeting last night to write postcards and make protest signs while snacking on Popcorn. Not a huge turnout, but very convivial and some new faces. I also set up a venting corner where you could throw beanbags at a large outline of a MAGA person. We also encouraged people to add the name of the person they most wanted to throw something at along the edges. It was enthusiastically received - people listed JD, Trump, ICE, Stephen Miller, etc. The beanbags (from my cornhole set) made a very satisfying womp against the image. One of my favorite signs that was made was “our huddled masses will beat your fascist asses.”
I love this! I may steal the sign!! :-)
Thank you Simon for this great information. I am passing it on ASAP. Among other things, protests & Indivisible activities, I'm post card captain for my Sister District group in Portland, OR (blue states. help red states at the state legislative level) - just sent off a huge mailing -- now planning Wave 2; we're helping candidates in VA; so think about the States too, so important, where so many draconian laws get passed & less money is required for wins.
Again, Thank You, Thank You, Thank Yo to Simon and this fantastic community!
what a great idea.
Whoa that is a tough, tough question. My head says Stephen Miller, but my heart say Kristi Noem... and I have a special place for Lindsey Graham too, maybe send him a tomato... lol.
This is a great idea and great therapy... perhaps it will go viral across the land.
I super-love the beanbag corner!!
The sign is great, too!
Great information! I am trying to stay hopeful and this helped!!
I have heard that the Dems focus on candidates and the short-term (disbanding organizations after each election) whereas the Republicans focus on their long-term vision and build organizations that persist over time. If this is an accurate take, I’d like to hear Ken Martin’s thoughts.
Thank you for these invaluable video updates with frontline warriors in the principled legal and political fight against T’s lawlessness and his dishonorable legislative lackeys. The interview today, with AG Phil Weiser, is another reminder of what’s at stake and how the unrelenting work of Blue state AGs is THE key to ensuring the Constitution remains the law of the land.
My MAGA rep and the subject of tariffs. Several hundred followers on his social media page exposed to the following:
"Donald Trump is a horrible human being." Announces Japan's ruling (LDP) party policy chairman and Member of Japan's House of Representatives, Itsunori Onodera, in response to Trump's recent tariff letter.
Japan is America's largest source of foreign investment, and they host many of our military bases. The Japanese are usually very restrained in their language, and so this startled me. (Japan holds national elections on the 20th.)
Trump/MAGA are destroying everything in their path. Four seats mark the difference in power in the House. Once AZ fills their vacant seat in the 7th, the difference will be three.
Thanks for this Thomas. The world sees what is happening here and they know it's Trump, not the vast majority of the American people. That gives me hope for a future when we are finally rid of MAGA and, knowing we almost lost everything, we have a new energy to get closer and closer to the aspirations of our founding documents.
And thank you, Kent, for your kind words. I believe the key insight will be this -- referring to our founding documents:
The Framers affirmed that We the People retain "innumerable" powers not specifically given to government. "A republic, if YOU can keep it" -- means we owe it to ourselves to use those unwritten powers when the situation requires it.
When confronted with an unfaithful Member of congress, I don't believe for a second that the Founders would have advised "wait for mid-terms" when our republic is at risk now. They set the bar high for other Members to remove MY Member -- which is fine -- but it should be as easy for me and my fellow citizens (in a district) to FIRE a dishonest and disloyal member as it is for a boss to fire a dishonest employee. Most Americans seem to go through life not believing that, acting as though they had no agency or choice.
And that is what drives a lack of faith in our system. The people of Japan and the rest of the world are counting on US, not our "system."
Thank you Simon. I just send the Gallup polling info to Senators Durbin and Duckworth and Representative Sorensen and asked them to ramp up the fight against the immorality and shame of the ICE raids, Noem, Trump, and Rubio. The images of putting good law-abiding people in cages makes me sick to my stomach and we should fight this tirelessly. We are better than this, and the Gallup findings bear that out. We wouldn't treat animals this way and we must find a way to stop this. I also thank them every day for their service - I am so proud to live in Illinois. Hang in there y'all. Our resistance is working. Kent
great idea, I will do likewise with my reps.
Yes, great idea!
wouldn't it be great if the lame MSM had headlines like "Americans to pay 50% extra for anything they buy from Brazil" and "Americans to pay an additional 35% on any imports from Canada". They would get the idea pretty quickly.
We need to start talking about how we are going to counter the use of force to round up undocumented immigrants, those who have lost their status and likely US citizens. A force of 10,000+ ICE soldiers (because that is how they are gearing up) will rip our country apart. The non-violence of No Kings Day prevented an overreaction by Trump, but we are going have to start training people for Gandhi-type non-violent actions, or come up with other ways to counter this. We can see it coming. Trump recently was quoted as saying, "You know that? I really do, I hate them. I cannot stand them, because I really believe they hate our country, you want to know the truth,” the president told the crowd. We can see that once a $40 billion dollar infrastructure is put in place it is unlikely that Trump will stop with "violent illegal immigrants with criminal records," he will be coming for those who oppose his policies. Not sure that bad polling numbers is going to stop him. Are plans being made? Troops used violence at two California farms yesterday, that is only going to get worse. What are we going to do when he unleashes his new force the 1 million people in southern Florida who just lost their legal statuses?
You might wish to join Indivisible's mailing list--this is a question they are quite occupied with right now.
Already am on their list. Think that it needs to be a broad discussion among all groups opposing Trump's move to authoritarianism.
Thank you for the great & inspiring interview w AG Weiser, who was very impressive. I can't wait to hear from AG Platkin! :)
FYI, I am thrilled to announce that Sen. Booker, along w Sen. Padilla, has introduced the Visible Identification Standards for Immigration-Based Law Enforcement (VISIBLE) Act of 2025 —S. 2212-- which would force ICE agents to unmask and wear ID. Please ask your senators to sign on as co-sponsors!
Yesterday, I attended a wonderful presentation by Johns Hopkins Ctr for Gun Violence Solutions on firearm permitting and how successful it is at reducing gun violence. Rep. Raskin somehow managed to have enough time in his day to participate, and was, as always, wonderful. He gave a detailed background on the constitutionality of mandatory firearm permitting.
Also, I attended another DNC training last night. It was the first in the two-part trainings that they're doing as part of Organizing Summer. I had already done this training but needed refresher, and have signed up for part 2, in which they'll drill down on how to organize and do outreach in your community and groups. Not very many folks had signed up, so I think they just need to push this out in as many ways as they can and just have a more aggressive comms strategy for it. I just don't think it's breaking through yet, and I would really like to hear what Chair Martin has to say about that.
Finally, I am going to do a similar outreach training w the DCCC and would like to hear from Chair Martin more about how $ and training are being pushed to the states for voter reg. Working on some VA postcards (if you need stamps, buy 'em now BC the price is going up next week!)
Keep going!
Thanks so much for all the info and all you are doing! Jamie Raskin is an unbelievably principled human who is also a wonderful man. Could you share the link(s) to organizing Summer? It is not specially listed on the DNC site. Thanks.
Yep, and FWIW that is part of the problem! They don't seem to be getting that it's not particularly easy to find this stuff, and it should be! Here is the webpage w all the good links: https://democrats.org/take-action-organizing-summer/
Second major article about our Resolution and it getting blocked, this one with no paywall. Get ready to groan, cringe, or yell at the blocking Councilor's comment - he wants to check with the Navy. 😫🤯 Alternatively, he could check with his immigrant, LGBTQ, student, senior, veteran, small business, food insecure, or most other constituents. Or he could remember the oaths he's taken. What a hard task it is to get him and other blockers-in-office to break their usual behaviors.
https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2025/07/11/boston-councilor-proposes-resolution-against-trump/?p1=hp_featurestack
Other reports: ran two candidate forums this week, mentored a new activist in a nearby community about candidate forums, planned with a team for our Good Trouble event on July 17
Thanks for the update via the article. Hang in there Rachel, this may not happen overnight, but it will happen. Thank you for your leadership. I found the Boston declaration very inspiring and helpful in crafting our draft delcaration for Monterey County, CA.
Oh great; I'm glad it helped. Yeah, it'll happen. In fact, the committee it was moved to has the Resolution sponsors as chair and vice chair. The delay is just acting out behavior.
Simon, I am the lead for the Union in Virginia. We are seeking help for a worthy candidate in Spotsylvania County for Board of Supervisors. Marcus A Garcia 719 232 9764 marcus.a.garcia3@gmail.com