I am very concerned about all the things that Trump is doing to benefit the petroleum / fossil fuel industry. He’s shutting down previously-approved solar farms and wind-power projects.
And now Venezuela… Moreover, he’s now throwing the Nobel Prize winning opposition politician under the bus – and saying he will "run" the country. That’s absurd and outrageous!
I’ve heard it said that Venezuelan oil is of a type that is rather costly to refine. With oil prices rather low, this may make it less attractive for American oil companies to exploit.
Read through the articles I link to today. VZ oil is much harder to refine and is of lower quality, which is one of the reasons why oil companies are not jumping in here.
To be very clear - Trump may have just f-cked this whole thing up. Chavistas still in power, oil companies not jumping in, world aghast, laws broken here. This old, addled man just may have to go.
I want to add something I've been mulling for the past few hours. To summarize:
(1) Trump ousts Maduro. (2) Trump dismisses as a player the opposition (including Nobel Peace Prize winning Machado...sure smells like a grudge to me!), which won the last election. (3) Trump installs Madura's VP, who immediately calls out the US and insists that Maduro is still the legitimate President.
So, here's the "something" I've been mulling. This situation, in my mind, has civil war written all over it. So, why the hell would ANY company (in addition to all the reasons Simon outlined above) want to insert itself into a country that may well descend into complete chaos at any moment???
I think chaos is more likely than civil war. My guess is that the Chavistas are better armed, more vicious, and more organized than the pro-democracy forces. What company would want to invest in a chaotic country?
You may well be right. Any way you cut this, it's likely to be ugly. Both your scenario and mine raise a question. If there is indeed chaos (or worse, civil war), does the lunatic in the White House decide to insert US troops and risk body bags or does he simply cut and run. Either way, he'll be in a much deserved world of trouble here at home.
I really think that he and MAGA in general envisioned that everything would just magically fall into line. Unfortunately, our side tends to give him power by acting like he was going to somehow use 13 dimensional chess to take over the globe. I also think it's a big possibility that Maduro himself wanted out and for his VP to take over, and this was one way to do it while giving trump the spectacle he desired.
You had me right up until your last sentence. That's just not how dictators operate. And, on the off chance that Maduro actually did want out, he could have simply paid a visit to Moscow and then just decided to stay. I have to imagine that a Moscow winter beats the hell out of a NYC jail cell!
Not so sure Maduro would go to Russia, given what Simon posted above about a possible Venezuelan trade for Ukraine per Fiona Hill. If true, though, Maduro certainly had other options without the humiliation of being brought to the US.
Donnie-2-Dolls is not doing anything for others, whether the fossil fuel industry or people who THINK he actually gives a tinker's damn about them. He does everything for himself and how much money he can gain from whatever insane and corrupt--certainly unconstitutional--move he makes.
I'm sure--okay, no one is sure of anything around this demented con artist--that he is sure he can increase his wealth somehow from this horror. Gee, another way to violate the constitution, since presidents are to receive NO FURTHER INCOME while in office other than their one salary. We know that Blondie, often called Bondi, will also find a new way to twist herself into the tiniest of pretzels in order to come up with another lie that she pretends is a way that abides by our Rule of Law, you know, what she perjured herself on in both her confirmation hearing AND when she lied during her oath of office.
The American oil companies have bought (bribed) Trump's repression of solar and wind energy, something that is literally a matter of life and death, with more fossil fuels being death. They have been villains for decades. Nothing has fucked the future for young people more than their sociopathic greed
Simon, take a peek at Robert Arnold's take on the political "why" (not surprising, but frames it in more detail) and the corruption that will follow. While some of the specific predictions may be wrong, it is of course necessary for us to anticipate and respond well. I'll be interested to hear what you think as your analysis continues. Thanks, as always.
Roxanne, thanks for providing the link to Mr. Arnold and his chilling thoughts about the aftermath of the orange-faced, fading lunatic and his unlawful and ill-conceived Venezuelan foray. He provides a lot to ponder. I also decided to sign up for his free emails.
Thank you for sharing this. Mr. Arnold's framing to me seems well reasoned. He explains the importance of the power of Private Equity and its ability to operate outside the normal regulatory and legal framework. He thinks Maduro will probably get a plea deal and then pardon because a trial with Discovery would be really bad for transparency and legitimacy of the attack. The title of this post is Veneauela as Exit Positioning and he defines Exit positioning as "what governments do when they believe their governing window is closing. It is what power looks like when legitimacy is no longer the objective and time becomes the enemy. It is the shift from shaping the future to insulating oneself from it. When leaders stop thinking about institutions they will inhabit and start thinking about arrangements that will survive them, priorities change. Governing gives way to locking in narratives, contracts, and leverage that will outlast elections, congressional backlash, and historical judgment."
Resistance and hard work for the next 303 days. We have one mission. Vote the Republicans out of office in November! Let's get busy now!
Just like the failed coup attempt on Jan. 6th, my gut is telling me the illegal action in Venezuela will fail too. ETTD. Wouldn't it be fun if the judge now assigned to Maduro's case in SDNY dismissed it and lets Maduro go. Look forward to seeing how the DOJ bumbles this case.
Very impressed with how fast people mobilized yesterday to protest in NYC, Boston, San Francisco, US Embassy in London, Visibility Bridge Brigade and many small protests around the county.
Back to the Epstein files, economy tanking, ACA credits expired, grocery costs still high...
Agree. There were hundreds of protestors across the Triangle region of NC yesterday afternoon/evening.
Thanks for your message. It prompted me to order more postcards! I requested postcard stamps for Christmas. I didn't get any, but I did get some money from my aunt and uncle. I will spend it at the USPS.
Hi, I would like to join a postcard writing effort. Are you doing in conjunction with an group or organized effort you could refer me to. I see many and I'm not sure what to go with. Thx.
tony the democrat for got out the vote or roll your own like we did--simon offers good messages - just look up local [not dc] offices so you don't get caught in anthrax screening delays,staffers convey the gist from local offices. many other good orgs -- lool at em and test out how they fit for you. i am the postcard maker for our group can bring them in for cheap using 110 lb card stock. sorry for typo's, working 1 handed from my heal the knee bed
I use Postcards to Swing States, specifically the News Boosting program. As far as I can tell, Postcards to Voters has the most successful program (still less than 2%), but I like it because they only target Democrats. The last thing I want to do is to motivate GOP voters! The News Boosting program is a new way to push the truth to low-information voters. They will be releasing data about how much this project improved turnout in November later this spring. You can read more about it here: https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/
We’re leaving in a few minutes for a protest in Iowa City, Iowa!
My new sign reads, “Venezuela for the Venezuelans, not trump’s rich donors” and “Hey, Donnie, your illegal war will NOT make us forget about Epstein, Ukraine, Healthcare, Affordability…”
My husband’s sign just says “another giant step towards dictatorship”
Janet, I SO appreciate your comment. This Hopium community inspires because it is action oriented. If you are in north Texas, please check out ntxvotes.org. Here in Texas, how to register then vote almost seems like an intentional secret. We need lots of volunteers everywhere, and frankly we have more opportunities than volunteers. We welcome more volunteers!
Thanks, Simon. I’ve just been so sick over this I have just hidden away watching Mamdani press conferences. How many corrupt invasions do we have to witness in a lifetime and say “not in my MF name?!” I am so grateful to you for keeping us informed and steadied. You are truly doing the lawd’s work (as in good lawd what the eff are they doing now?!) I live in MX now but I think i still call WA which was my last US address.
Simon and I were tufts 85 and our cohort had many signs and songs. (“free Nelson Mandela” by the Specials is a great one.) I really wanted to grow old and put the bullhorn away, dammit. Thankfully it looks like folks are taking bush’s advice … “fool me once… uh, we won’t get fooled again.”🙏🏾 let’s hope
Trump may be unaware that much of the oil in Venezuela is heavy crude and that the only refinery in the U.S. that could refine it was mothballed several years ago.
I suspect that not until at least after primary season concludes this Spring and, likely, not until after a Blue Wave in November. It's sad, but their cowardice and self-interest clearly top their concern for country. Even the ones retiring want to get slots on Fox, be appointed to the boards of companies, not to get death threats from Trump's minions. And I understand the Dem leaders' feelings that another failed impeachment attempt may do more harm than good.
Thank you for the info from Fiona Hill about the Venezuala-Ukraine swap. It is so obvious that someone malevolent put the idea of seizing Greenland, Venezuela, Cuba, Canada, etc. into Donny’s brain. It’s a perfect justification for Russia’s brutal imperialism, and admittedly a brilliant exploitation of Donny’s personality disorder(s).
Me too. I read her book 'There's Nothing for you Here' which I highly recommend. Usually I have trouble reading this sort of book - not this time. She's an amazing person, and I was very impressed with her dad too who pushed her to succeed.
Simon and Robert , et.al, While reading a mystery novel last year I discovered the French term “Foile a’ Deux”. Not being fluent in French, I had to look up what Foile a’ Deux meant. Guess what I found? “Foile a’ Deux (noun) is a “delusion or mental illness shared by two people in close association”. (a madness of two).
DJT’s unrelenting acting out his fear of Epstein file disclosures, denial of chaos he creates, economic management failures, international relation betrayals, murdering of Venezuelan sailors and government employees, and rejection of scientific inquiry and research coupled with Stephen Miller’s rejection of difference left me wanting and wondering about how to stop those two in their tracks.
Cleary constitutional regulations (the law) mean NOTHING to their administrative team. I hope that someone with legal expertise can flip a switch and file something that will WAKE UP DJT and his crew alerting them that every choice has a consequence. To leave them to their own devices creates serious harm for millions of non-wealthy folks.
Thank you for highlighting that Trump’s pious grubby imperialism is a rather stupid version of the McKinley era. The tar sands of the Orinoco region in Venezuela are not economically viable without the global price of petroleum being more than double the current price. See the struggle of the Canadian tar sands fields to stay in business. Basically Trump is an energy moron. Currently, he is trying to reverse the transition to renewable energy that is under way globally. Currently there is a global surplus of petroleum even with the Russians being knocked offline. As you point out this malevolent and incompetent regime has no idea what to do after Maduro and his wife were snatched in a brilliant but high risk operation. Decapitation is not regime change. To “run” Venezuela requires boots on the ground with Little Marco on the throne.
Even for them, I'm sort of shocked at how this wasn't thought through at all. Then they say they needed to keep people in the dark because of fear of leaks. They either don't care, don't seek expert opinions, or don't listen to expert opinions, or most likely some combination of all three.
The only thing I wonder about, as a Florida resident who wants David Jolly to be my governor, is what political impact this might have on Venezuelan and Cuban voters. They might sour on what was done over time, or it might not matter that much, but right now this is like when Castro was ailing and close to dying.
Vibe report from a sample size of two Cuban/Venezuelan voters living in FL: They are very happy today and want Trump to take on Cuba next. But they were never going to support David Jolly (unless I'm really misreading their FB and WhatsApp posts). The upside: there is a lot of time between now and November!
To "Make Cuba Great Again," of course. Just like he's Making America Great Again; and making Gaza Great Again; and Making Venezuela Great Again; and Making Ukraine Great Again and Making Christian Nigeria Great Again, ad infinitum.
"Spheres of Influence" with US, Russia, China ruling the world order, disrupting the sovereignty of smaller nations. Heather Cox Richardson posted this yesterday (before the buffoons press conference).
they never got over the bay of pig or jfk's refusal to commit more resources to toppling castro. i'll point out no subsequent republican did squat either. they never forgave clinton for returning elian gonzalez to his legal parent. we were supposed to keep the kid here against his father's will. the party of family values.....and not all the folks who fled cuba were freedom loving democrats; batista was no liberal. my family's old neighborhood in nj, once predominantly italian, saw the first waves of cubans who arrived in the 60s, and they had no problems availing themselves of all the new social programs lbj had passed. and that's fine, but spare me the free market anti communism schtick and calling our dem candidates commies. i've about had it.
Here are some polls for FL governor: https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/florida Obviously they are early, but they show the R candidate with a lead of 10-12 points. I wonder if expiration of ACA subsidies, insurance through the roof, inflation, and so much more will turn the tide.
we have a better shot at flipping texas these days. and very good at georgia. arizona too. florida has changed and it may be a reach for a while.we've also got to get nv back in the fold. really, we have lost a lot of states to this orange dipshit; i try to avoid maga folks but sometimes run into them on morning walks, and it always gets ugly. and i'm not afraid to get right down in the mud with them.
We have a good chance of winning NC, and a moderately good chance of winning ME. GA I see as a tossup, or a little less. We have a chance in AK, NE, and IA. I hope you're right on TX.
Where are you, that your morning walks are in MAGAland?
This is what matters, as I wrote yesterday. Democrats cannot flip the House by handwringing about Venezuela. Trump is nuts, of course, and he’s screwing up the post WWII world order and empowering Putin and Xi, but that doesn’t win elections. The danger isn’t Trump the nut, it’s the sophisticated political people around him. They want nothing more than for Democrats to focus on something that to voters will be a sideshow come November.
Let’s look at a typical voter, one of the low-information or late attention folks. What will drive their vote? Their pocketbook. The cost of living, housing, food, healthcare. Epstein. Not Trump knocking off a petty dictator. It’s the economy stupid.
I always believed the oil companies would be very reluctant to open up Venezuela's oil spigot. I did not realize the size o the investment needed and anybody committing to that scale must have a lot of economic and political assurances there will be a payoff down the road.
Trump, as usual, does not understand any of this. What an idiot.
Dictatorships -- perhaps especially by this wannabe -- tend to be brittle. So, it would seem to be a huge risk to pour big investment into something that would take years to pay off, if at all.
I suspect that Trump/Rubio have been thinking of invading Venezuela for a while, but also that the date of the invasion (obviously before planning what to do once they'd invaded) has more to do with Trump feeling narcissistic wounds (reports about his health and age, Epstein, MTG, SCOTUS forcing him to call back the National Guards, etc.) than with anything else. He acted impulsively to try to make himself feel better. He is a true sadist and it gives him pleasure to bomb and kill people -- and bombing feels masculine and powerful to him. I think it's important for us to focus on framing his actions as those of a weak, failing leader, not a strong one. He's making us weaker on the world stage.
The hastily thrown together "situation room" in Mar-a-Largo is a joke. They're like children who've used bedsheets and tables to make a "command center" tent. A real president would have gone home to DC for a crisis like this. We've known since the first Trump term that Mar-a-Largo isn't secure and that Russia, China, and anyone else can listen in to what goes on there. A complete shit show. He acts like a mobster, but he's a pretty incompetent mobster. Even an incompetent mobster can do a lot of damage.
We just have to keep fighting him.
Going to be interesting to see which European et al. countries these guys no longer think they can visit without danger of arrest.
I'll call my representatives today and continue to work on my postcards to NC voters.
Just this morning I was saying if your country is going to be run by a mob boss you at least want him to be a competent one like Vito Corleone. Trump's more like Billy Bats (Goodfellows reference), if even that.
The discussion about the oil companies is very insightful and useful. Thanks for that.
What we should be investing in is not more petroleum fields, but clean energy deployment, utilization, and storage. That is important for the environment and forward looking. If we try to use the military in Venezuela to create stability so that we can extract oil, it will be expensive with a large cost in dollars and lives. Like Iraq, which Trump supposedly did not approve of.
Trump always seems stuck in the past, with some rudimentary understanding of things 40-50 years ago. Things he maybe shallowly understood then, but are becoming irrelevant now. It's always things like steel, coal, oil, etc. It's a bit like some Eastern Bloc leader taking credit for how many metric tons of steel and concrete they produced in the last quarter.
I think he was born in the wrong century. When he blathers on about the Donroe Doctrine, his made up name for the Monroe Doctrine, he hearkens to a theorized past. Smoot-Hawley tariffs, how 19th century. While the rest of the world is weaning itself off fossil fuels and onto renewable energy, he's stuck on clean beautiful coal and fossil fuels. He's stuck on stupid.
"It is possible that no one really thought any of this through and there isn't really a plan." I think we can take that to the bank, Simon. Just as there was no "plan" to govern Iraq after we invaded there (also for oil, with WMD and a desire to get rid of "bad guy" Sadaam Hussein just the cover story), there is also no "plan" to govern Venezuela or even to capture its oil reserves for US companies (who seem pretty doubtful of any realistic possibility.) Lots of happy talk but no reality-like pretty much everything Trump does. If Americans start dying in VZ as they did in Iraq, the current polling will look great compared to what it will become. There's no 911 "we were attacked" rationale to fall back on here as people already aren't buying the "we're killing people on small boats because we're being attacked by narco-terrorist" rationale.
Thanks a ton for pointing to the Ukraine-for-Russia, Venezuela-for-us connection. So telling that Fiona Hill was testifying about that years ago as part of Trump's first impeachment.
I am very concerned about all the things that Trump is doing to benefit the petroleum / fossil fuel industry. He’s shutting down previously-approved solar farms and wind-power projects.
And now Venezuela… Moreover, he’s now throwing the Nobel Prize winning opposition politician under the bus – and saying he will "run" the country. That’s absurd and outrageous!
I’ve heard it said that Venezuelan oil is of a type that is rather costly to refine. With oil prices rather low, this may make it less attractive for American oil companies to exploit.
Read through the articles I link to today. VZ oil is much harder to refine and is of lower quality, which is one of the reasons why oil companies are not jumping in here.
To be very clear - Trump may have just f-cked this whole thing up. Chavistas still in power, oil companies not jumping in, world aghast, laws broken here. This old, addled man just may have to go.
I want to add something I've been mulling for the past few hours. To summarize:
(1) Trump ousts Maduro. (2) Trump dismisses as a player the opposition (including Nobel Peace Prize winning Machado...sure smells like a grudge to me!), which won the last election. (3) Trump installs Madura's VP, who immediately calls out the US and insists that Maduro is still the legitimate President.
So, here's the "something" I've been mulling. This situation, in my mind, has civil war written all over it. So, why the hell would ANY company (in addition to all the reasons Simon outlined above) want to insert itself into a country that may well descend into complete chaos at any moment???
They have the experience of Libya fresh in mind.
Once burned, twice shy, right?!? Oh, if only the lunatic in the White House were just 1/1000 as wise!
I think chaos is more likely than civil war. My guess is that the Chavistas are better armed, more vicious, and more organized than the pro-democracy forces. What company would want to invest in a chaotic country?
You may well be right. Any way you cut this, it's likely to be ugly. Both your scenario and mine raise a question. If there is indeed chaos (or worse, civil war), does the lunatic in the White House decide to insert US troops and risk body bags or does he simply cut and run. Either way, he'll be in a much deserved world of trouble here at home.
Answer: Cut and run. His motto: Speak loudly and carry a little stick.
"Mission Accomplished" etc etc etc
More like speak loudly and try to remember where the hell he left the stick ...
Constellis? Previously known as Blackwater, renamed Xe Services and later Constellis. Huge opportunities for Erik Prince and his gang of mercenaries.
I really think that he and MAGA in general envisioned that everything would just magically fall into line. Unfortunately, our side tends to give him power by acting like he was going to somehow use 13 dimensional chess to take over the globe. I also think it's a big possibility that Maduro himself wanted out and for his VP to take over, and this was one way to do it while giving trump the spectacle he desired.
You had me right up until your last sentence. That's just not how dictators operate. And, on the off chance that Maduro actually did want out, he could have simply paid a visit to Moscow and then just decided to stay. I have to imagine that a Moscow winter beats the hell out of a NYC jail cell!
Not so sure Maduro would go to Russia, given what Simon posted above about a possible Venezuelan trade for Ukraine per Fiona Hill. If true, though, Maduro certainly had other options without the humiliation of being brought to the US.
👍 "13 dimensional chess"!! Perfect brain-squeeze description of MAGA's cult belief about regime's behavior.
Delusional and dangerous.
Locked and looted.
13 D CHESS IS TRAFFIC JAM
Love your spelling of that last word. Telling and damning!
Thanks for the info on heavy vs light crude. Always enjoy learnin’
Donnie-2-Dolls is not doing anything for others, whether the fossil fuel industry or people who THINK he actually gives a tinker's damn about them. He does everything for himself and how much money he can gain from whatever insane and corrupt--certainly unconstitutional--move he makes.
I'm sure--okay, no one is sure of anything around this demented con artist--that he is sure he can increase his wealth somehow from this horror. Gee, another way to violate the constitution, since presidents are to receive NO FURTHER INCOME while in office other than their one salary. We know that Blondie, often called Bondi, will also find a new way to twist herself into the tiniest of pretzels in order to come up with another lie that she pretends is a way that abides by our Rule of Law, you know, what she perjured herself on in both her confirmation hearing AND when she lied during her oath of office.
The American oil companies have bought (bribed) Trump's repression of solar and wind energy, something that is literally a matter of life and death, with more fossil fuels being death. They have been villains for decades. Nothing has fucked the future for young people more than their sociopathic greed
Simon, take a peek at Robert Arnold's take on the political "why" (not surprising, but frames it in more detail) and the corruption that will follow. While some of the specific predictions may be wrong, it is of course necessary for us to anticipate and respond well. I'll be interested to hear what you think as your analysis continues. Thanks, as always.
https://open.substack.com/pub/defiance13/p/venezuela-as-exit-positioning?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=e3xv
Roxanne, thanks for providing the link to Mr. Arnold and his chilling thoughts about the aftermath of the orange-faced, fading lunatic and his unlawful and ill-conceived Venezuelan foray. He provides a lot to ponder. I also decided to sign up for his free emails.
Thank you. Wow, it was enlightening. Ideas I had never considered.
Thank you for sharing this. Mr. Arnold's framing to me seems well reasoned. He explains the importance of the power of Private Equity and its ability to operate outside the normal regulatory and legal framework. He thinks Maduro will probably get a plea deal and then pardon because a trial with Discovery would be really bad for transparency and legitimacy of the attack. The title of this post is Veneauela as Exit Positioning and he defines Exit positioning as "what governments do when they believe their governing window is closing. It is what power looks like when legitimacy is no longer the objective and time becomes the enemy. It is the shift from shaping the future to insulating oneself from it. When leaders stop thinking about institutions they will inhabit and start thinking about arrangements that will survive them, priorities change. Governing gives way to locking in narratives, contracts, and leverage that will outlast elections, congressional backlash, and historical judgment."
Amazing...and scary at the same time.
Freedom was won but is not free, we must EARN IT every day
Resistance and hard work for the next 303 days. We have one mission. Vote the Republicans out of office in November! Let's get busy now!
Just like the failed coup attempt on Jan. 6th, my gut is telling me the illegal action in Venezuela will fail too. ETTD. Wouldn't it be fun if the judge now assigned to Maduro's case in SDNY dismissed it and lets Maduro go. Look forward to seeing how the DOJ bumbles this case.
Very impressed with how fast people mobilized yesterday to protest in NYC, Boston, San Francisco, US Embassy in London, Visibility Bridge Brigade and many small protests around the county.
Back to the Epstein files, economy tanking, ACA credits expired, grocery costs still high...
Agree. There were hundreds of protestors across the Triangle region of NC yesterday afternoon/evening.
Thanks for your message. It prompted me to order more postcards! I requested postcard stamps for Christmas. I didn't get any, but I did get some money from my aunt and uncle. I will spend it at the USPS.
Hi, I would like to join a postcard writing effort. Are you doing in conjunction with an group or organized effort you could refer me to. I see many and I'm not sure what to go with. Thx.
tony the democrat for got out the vote or roll your own like we did--simon offers good messages - just look up local [not dc] offices so you don't get caught in anthrax screening delays,staffers convey the gist from local offices. many other good orgs -- lool at em and test out how they fit for you. i am the postcard maker for our group can bring them in for cheap using 110 lb card stock. sorry for typo's, working 1 handed from my heal the knee bed
I use Postcards to Swing States, specifically the News Boosting program. As far as I can tell, Postcards to Voters has the most successful program (still less than 2%), but I like it because they only target Democrats. The last thing I want to do is to motivate GOP voters! The News Boosting program is a new way to push the truth to low-information voters. They will be releasing data about how much this project improved turnout in November later this spring. You can read more about it here: https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/
We’re leaving in a few minutes for a protest in Iowa City, Iowa!
My new sign reads, “Venezuela for the Venezuelans, not trump’s rich donors” and “Hey, Donnie, your illegal war will NOT make us forget about Epstein, Ukraine, Healthcare, Affordability…”
My husband’s sign just says “another giant step towards dictatorship”
Janet, I SO appreciate your comment. This Hopium community inspires because it is action oriented. If you are in north Texas, please check out ntxvotes.org. Here in Texas, how to register then vote almost seems like an intentional secret. We need lots of volunteers everywhere, and frankly we have more opportunities than volunteers. We welcome more volunteers!
Thanks, Simon. I’ve just been so sick over this I have just hidden away watching Mamdani press conferences. How many corrupt invasions do we have to witness in a lifetime and say “not in my MF name?!” I am so grateful to you for keeping us informed and steadied. You are truly doing the lawd’s work (as in good lawd what the eff are they doing now?!) I live in MX now but I think i still call WA which was my last US address.
I was "joking" to my high school friends that we needed to get out our "no blood for oil" signs from 1991.
Simon and I were tufts 85 and our cohort had many signs and songs. (“free Nelson Mandela” by the Specials is a great one.) I really wanted to grow old and put the bullhorn away, dammit. Thankfully it looks like folks are taking bush’s advice … “fool me once… uh, we won’t get fooled again.”🙏🏾 let’s hope
Thanks for bringing out that classic Bush quote!!
Trump may be unaware that much of the oil in Venezuela is heavy crude and that the only refinery in the U.S. that could refine it was mothballed several years ago.
Definitely he's unaware, as are all of the people enabling / directing him.
Is THIS finally grounds for enough republicans to support impeachment?
Time will tell... phone calls and low polling will increase the pressure.
I suspect that not until at least after primary season concludes this Spring and, likely, not until after a Blue Wave in November. It's sad, but their cowardice and self-interest clearly top their concern for country. Even the ones retiring want to get slots on Fox, be appointed to the boards of companies, not to get death threats from Trump's minions. And I understand the Dem leaders' feelings that another failed impeachment attempt may do more harm than good.
Nope. Sorry!
Thank you for the info from Fiona Hill about the Venezuala-Ukraine swap. It is so obvious that someone malevolent put the idea of seizing Greenland, Venezuela, Cuba, Canada, etc. into Donny’s brain. It’s a perfect justification for Russia’s brutal imperialism, and admittedly a brilliant exploitation of Donny’s personality disorder(s).
Love Fiona Hill.
Me too. I read her book 'There's Nothing for you Here' which I highly recommend. Usually I have trouble reading this sort of book - not this time. She's an amazing person, and I was very impressed with her dad too who pushed her to succeed.
Simon and Robert , et.al, While reading a mystery novel last year I discovered the French term “Foile a’ Deux”. Not being fluent in French, I had to look up what Foile a’ Deux meant. Guess what I found? “Foile a’ Deux (noun) is a “delusion or mental illness shared by two people in close association”. (a madness of two).
DJT’s unrelenting acting out his fear of Epstein file disclosures, denial of chaos he creates, economic management failures, international relation betrayals, murdering of Venezuelan sailors and government employees, and rejection of scientific inquiry and research coupled with Stephen Miller’s rejection of difference left me wanting and wondering about how to stop those two in their tracks.
Cleary constitutional regulations (the law) mean NOTHING to their administrative team. I hope that someone with legal expertise can flip a switch and file something that will WAKE UP DJT and his crew alerting them that every choice has a consequence. To leave them to their own devices creates serious harm for millions of non-wealthy folks.
Thank you for highlighting that Trump’s pious grubby imperialism is a rather stupid version of the McKinley era. The tar sands of the Orinoco region in Venezuela are not economically viable without the global price of petroleum being more than double the current price. See the struggle of the Canadian tar sands fields to stay in business. Basically Trump is an energy moron. Currently, he is trying to reverse the transition to renewable energy that is under way globally. Currently there is a global surplus of petroleum even with the Russians being knocked offline. As you point out this malevolent and incompetent regime has no idea what to do after Maduro and his wife were snatched in a brilliant but high risk operation. Decapitation is not regime change. To “run” Venezuela requires boots on the ground with Little Marco on the throne.
Of course these clowns haven't thought it through although they may have "concepts of a plan."
Trump thought it waa a good idea because:
a. Epstein
b. ACA subsidies sunset
c. Mike Johnson is a failure and in deep doo-doo
d. Hoping for a war bump in the polls
e. He likes to be a bully and see things go "boom!"
Even for them, I'm sort of shocked at how this wasn't thought through at all. Then they say they needed to keep people in the dark because of fear of leaks. They either don't care, don't seek expert opinions, or don't listen to expert opinions, or most likely some combination of all three.
The only thing I wonder about, as a Florida resident who wants David Jolly to be my governor, is what political impact this might have on Venezuelan and Cuban voters. They might sour on what was done over time, or it might not matter that much, but right now this is like when Castro was ailing and close to dying.
Vibe report from a sample size of two Cuban/Venezuelan voters living in FL: They are very happy today and want Trump to take on Cuba next. But they were never going to support David Jolly (unless I'm really misreading their FB and WhatsApp posts). The upside: there is a lot of time between now and November!
Take on Cuba to what end? They thought everything would magically change when Castro died too.
No clue!
To "Make Cuba Great Again," of course. Just like he's Making America Great Again; and making Gaza Great Again; and Making Venezuela Great Again; and Making Ukraine Great Again and Making Christian Nigeria Great Again, ad infinitum.
Of course! I didn’t think of that.
"Spheres of Influence" with US, Russia, China ruling the world order, disrupting the sovereignty of smaller nations. Heather Cox Richardson posted this yesterday (before the buffoons press conference).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wu9QSeAI22I
they never got over the bay of pig or jfk's refusal to commit more resources to toppling castro. i'll point out no subsequent republican did squat either. they never forgave clinton for returning elian gonzalez to his legal parent. we were supposed to keep the kid here against his father's will. the party of family values.....and not all the folks who fled cuba were freedom loving democrats; batista was no liberal. my family's old neighborhood in nj, once predominantly italian, saw the first waves of cubans who arrived in the 60s, and they had no problems availing themselves of all the new social programs lbj had passed. and that's fine, but spare me the free market anti communism schtick and calling our dem candidates commies. i've about had it.
Here are some polls for FL governor: https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/florida Obviously they are early, but they show the R candidate with a lead of 10-12 points. I wonder if expiration of ACA subsidies, insurance through the roof, inflation, and so much more will turn the tide.
we have a better shot at flipping texas these days. and very good at georgia. arizona too. florida has changed and it may be a reach for a while.we've also got to get nv back in the fold. really, we have lost a lot of states to this orange dipshit; i try to avoid maga folks but sometimes run into them on morning walks, and it always gets ugly. and i'm not afraid to get right down in the mud with them.
We have a good chance of winning NC, and a moderately good chance of winning ME. GA I see as a tossup, or a little less. We have a chance in AK, NE, and IA. I hope you're right on TX.
Where are you, that your morning walks are in MAGAland?
nj....
I suspect it matters more if all these legal residents in Florida lose their status, as Simon was writing about last Fall.
If he deports them back to chaos in their home countries, Rs might have an electoral problem in FL.
Yeah maybe. I had thought of that. It’s a long ways off and many things will happen. But Jolly might be the best chance we’ve had in some time.
IMO, he isn't so much about the oil as he is about emulating and (in this case) one-upping his hero Putin.
This is what matters, as I wrote yesterday. Democrats cannot flip the House by handwringing about Venezuela. Trump is nuts, of course, and he’s screwing up the post WWII world order and empowering Putin and Xi, but that doesn’t win elections. The danger isn’t Trump the nut, it’s the sophisticated political people around him. They want nothing more than for Democrats to focus on something that to voters will be a sideshow come November.
Let’s look at a typical voter, one of the low-information or late attention folks. What will drive their vote? Their pocketbook. The cost of living, housing, food, healthcare. Epstein. Not Trump knocking off a petty dictator. It’s the economy stupid.
Ask James Carville: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqiIBwic6Mc
Thanks, Simon. You've helped put my feet back under me this morning. Now I'm off to leave messages on my representatives phone lines.
I always believed the oil companies would be very reluctant to open up Venezuela's oil spigot. I did not realize the size o the investment needed and anybody committing to that scale must have a lot of economic and political assurances there will be a payoff down the road.
Trump, as usual, does not understand any of this. What an idiot.
Dictatorships -- perhaps especially by this wannabe -- tend to be brittle. So, it would seem to be a huge risk to pour big investment into something that would take years to pay off, if at all.
I suspect that Trump/Rubio have been thinking of invading Venezuela for a while, but also that the date of the invasion (obviously before planning what to do once they'd invaded) has more to do with Trump feeling narcissistic wounds (reports about his health and age, Epstein, MTG, SCOTUS forcing him to call back the National Guards, etc.) than with anything else. He acted impulsively to try to make himself feel better. He is a true sadist and it gives him pleasure to bomb and kill people -- and bombing feels masculine and powerful to him. I think it's important for us to focus on framing his actions as those of a weak, failing leader, not a strong one. He's making us weaker on the world stage.
The hastily thrown together "situation room" in Mar-a-Largo is a joke. They're like children who've used bedsheets and tables to make a "command center" tent. A real president would have gone home to DC for a crisis like this. We've known since the first Trump term that Mar-a-Largo isn't secure and that Russia, China, and anyone else can listen in to what goes on there. A complete shit show. He acts like a mobster, but he's a pretty incompetent mobster. Even an incompetent mobster can do a lot of damage.
We just have to keep fighting him.
Going to be interesting to see which European et al. countries these guys no longer think they can visit without danger of arrest.
I'll call my representatives today and continue to work on my postcards to NC voters.
Just this morning I was saying if your country is going to be run by a mob boss you at least want him to be a competent one like Vito Corleone. Trump's more like Billy Bats (Goodfellows reference), if even that.
The discussion about the oil companies is very insightful and useful. Thanks for that.
What we should be investing in is not more petroleum fields, but clean energy deployment, utilization, and storage. That is important for the environment and forward looking. If we try to use the military in Venezuela to create stability so that we can extract oil, it will be expensive with a large cost in dollars and lives. Like Iraq, which Trump supposedly did not approve of.
Trump always seems stuck in the past, with some rudimentary understanding of things 40-50 years ago. Things he maybe shallowly understood then, but are becoming irrelevant now. It's always things like steel, coal, oil, etc. It's a bit like some Eastern Bloc leader taking credit for how many metric tons of steel and concrete they produced in the last quarter.
I think he was born in the wrong century. When he blathers on about the Donroe Doctrine, his made up name for the Monroe Doctrine, he hearkens to a theorized past. Smoot-Hawley tariffs, how 19th century. While the rest of the world is weaning itself off fossil fuels and onto renewable energy, he's stuck on clean beautiful coal and fossil fuels. He's stuck on stupid.
He came up with “Donroe”? Good Lord I thought that was people making fun of him.
"It is possible that no one really thought any of this through and there isn't really a plan." I think we can take that to the bank, Simon. Just as there was no "plan" to govern Iraq after we invaded there (also for oil, with WMD and a desire to get rid of "bad guy" Sadaam Hussein just the cover story), there is also no "plan" to govern Venezuela or even to capture its oil reserves for US companies (who seem pretty doubtful of any realistic possibility.) Lots of happy talk but no reality-like pretty much everything Trump does. If Americans start dying in VZ as they did in Iraq, the current polling will look great compared to what it will become. There's no 911 "we were attacked" rationale to fall back on here as people already aren't buying the "we're killing people on small boats because we're being attacked by narco-terrorist" rationale.
Thanks a ton for pointing to the Ukraine-for-Russia, Venezuela-for-us connection. So telling that Fiona Hill was testifying about that years ago as part of Trump's first impeachment.