Contacted reps with Simon’s top 4. Encouraged boldness. More postcards! Taking food to a small local restaurant that is comping all food donations it receives for a local food pantry.
We’re potentially in DEEP TROUBLE if the tariffs are ruled unconstitutional. The ramifications of such a reversal will have an impact domestically and internationally that need to be immediately addressed plus will be compounded by the lack of a budget. From the beginning, DOGE and the GOP have not been transparent making the situation unprecedented and unpredictable. It’s important to know where we stand.
I have been wondering about that scenario too. The complexity of paying back the tariffs, and then the resulting impact on the deficit, is alarming. I don't know how they can get a budget together at all with that uncertainty looming.
Coupled to all the uncertainty with no economic data generated by the government, I'm not sure how anyone could plan or predict the near term future. How is the Fed functioning in this situation?
The AI bubble might be in the early stages of popping. I think earlier in the year when the stock market was tanking, after Liberation Day, his poll numbers went down. A market correction is going to hurt his numbers if it happens again. A lot of these older, relatively well-off seniors depend on their 401K investments, and many are Trump voters.
If AI investments substantially slow, it seems like a recession or worse is a lot more likely.
I'm thinking this about the AI bubble, too. Wired had a great terrifying yet entertaining piece about AI compared to tech bubbles in history. They said that it appears to be most like radio and aviation, both of which produced bubbles that popped in 1929, as part of and maybe contributor to the big crash.
Think this is the story - no gift link option, sorry:
Thanks. I wish I could read it, but I might not have enough time to do it even if it wasn't behind the paywall.
The other bubble is crypto. There's a lot riding on all this stuff. Crypto deserves to pop.
AI will have applications. But I think right now it is highly oversold. The way many people look at it is just unrealistic.
I heard the idiot Sec. Energy, Chris Wright, talking about how he spends time using AI to solve the problem of Dark Matter, and to cure cancer. I guess just solving one of those isn't enough to keep him busy, along with running DOE. If I was in charge of someone who said something that idiotic I'd fire them on the spot.
These are tools that will probably eliminate jobs just by making workers in some areas more efficient. They aren't "thinking" in a way that is going to solve major problems. At least not yet.
Yeah, I have had a nagging feeling that it may indeed be as bad or worse than 2008, or the late 90s .com crash. I feel like with the current global scenario, it could very well be on the scale of 1929. Andrew Ross Sorkin has a brand new book called 1929, I am going to check it out.
I understand the stock market frenzy has made a lot of economic analysts nervous. Greed gets in the way of clear thinking. The stock and trade of these folks has been yelling over the opposition. They did that last time until we had the recession. These are reckless folks who are willing to risk everything no matter what the cost.
BTW, we're watching Youngkin try to create his non-MAGA personality so he can run for VA Senate against Mark Warner. He moved quickly on SNAP and is being nicey-nice to Spanberger. Another Republican who's moving away from Trump. He's slippery and slimy, but you don't need to be a weather man to see which way the wind blows.
Two queries: Is there anything we can do to help with Tennessee's special election? I read MAGA Mike Johnson might be holding Adelita Grijalva's swearing in until he gets an R vote to counter hers?? Also, I live in Montgomery County, MD. Is there anyone I should be bugging about the Resolution of Condemnation that I thought was going to be introduced?
I contacted Senator Schumer's office to urge him to stand strong and not squander this week's victory. I called Congresman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen with the same message.
Thanks I think I might give that a shot. I was wondering where I might go to do that. I have a bunch of already-stamped postcards sitting on my desk at home.
I love your description of Gov. Trumpkin. He is indeed oily. I fear he could be a strong GOP presidential contender because he is skilled at misrepresenting himself. And he's a rich venture capitalist, which for some reason Republicans seem to think is a good background for a politician.
In addition to the Postcards To Voters campaign for the Dem in the Tennessee special election, you can donate to her here: https://www.aftynforcongress.com/
I watched Lawrence O’Donnell last night and he stated the loss of USAID has already accounted for the loss of 600,000 lives. I believe he said 2/3 of these were children. When histories of the Trump years are written someday, the sheer loss of life under his rule will no doubt be staggering.
Agree, and I like the historical reference back to the Revolutionary War. Did a little digging this morning and the terms were taken from the state seal designed in that era and refer to the goddesses Libertas and Ceres shown on the seal and the flag. Nice flag by the way, almost up there with the CA Bear :)
A question: Is there anything to the rumor that a group of Democratic Senators (including Slotkin, Kelly, Rosen…) are about to cave on the shutdown and agree to the CR?
There are ongoing conversations in both chambers about how to get out of this, as we should hope. "Senate Democrats spent a two-hour caucus meeting Thursday taking stock of where things stand and came to this conclusion: Why on earth would we fold now? "
Simon--"rankle"? Did you write/intend "wrangle"? Just passing it along. Another great piece, but having learned so much these last nine months or so, I also think Dem leadership needs a quick response team to scenario plan for various desperate gasping dying Trump gambits. Federal judges let 'em have it yesterday. Deservedly.
I say we go for the throat. "Abolish Ice" and "Medicare for All." Force the Republicans to go to the Center to meet us instead of the Democrats always having to move right.
Love this idea…I’m having a hard time finding any info re the behind the scenes Senate negotiations tht Ossoff, Shaheen, Cortez Masto and a couple other “moderate” Dems are allegedly having with Republicans that could include reopening the govt with only the offer of maybe a vote sometime in the future re whether to extend ACA subsidies! I hope this is incorrect, but I can’t get more info about it…I’m hoping Simon will comment on it at some point…
Anyone here have direct experience of talking to a staffer during shutdown? Imagine it varies. Happy to call/use email on their pages, but wondering if we have any better or sharper ways to get attention. When Fetterman's WIFE was running for the position he doesn't grace very well, airplanes with banners worked. Do the deliver trucks with wraps have an effect?
For me, decide whom you're trying to reach with messages, with the $$$ you have, then plan accordingly after research. Could be a combination of things...
The way I see it, this past weeks elections were just a drop in the bucket with respect what is needed going forward to defeat this felon criminal and his complicit MAGA crowd! America has a long way to go as result of the past several months of Republican rule, certainly not leadership! To lead is to respect and appreciate others views and opinions as well as following our laws! This current Republican regime is full of criminally minded individuals that believe that their way is the only and best way to go! They continued to ignore the outcry of the American people, by listening to the con man and felon in the WH that he and they have a “mandate”to do all the cruel acts that his ICE agents are committing against humanity and our own Constitution! In addition, to killing individuals on the high sea that he the felon says are drug runners without one shred of evidence to prove their reported drug running.
This entire criminal regime is an embarrassment and antithetical to our American beliefs of “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”. Everyday we each awake, we have an uneasy feeling as to whether or not our freedoms will be ended or severely hampered by a tyrant, wanna be king and his sycophants!
We are just at the beginning of this tyrannical regime and we must wake every day with a plan to fight it until it’s no longer a threat to our core values! God Bless you all! And let’s keep fighting America!
(Like) Your post supplied a lot of food for thought. This morning, I spent some time looking over the election results in a lot of our northern counties here in Georgia -- four of which are in my very red district. Those counties were just as red as ever.
I looked over at Floyd County in MTG's district -- the most populated (Rome, GA) -- and the spread was nearly the same as last November's. No MTG effect as of yet.
I think my best hypothesis to this point is that Democrats can certainly win in Georgia -- and these two statewide races won big for the two Democrats -- but only if we turn out in the way we did this election. (end of note 1)
Note 2: I heard Senator Warnock speaking this morning about our democracy in regression. He said something like "New birth is often accompanied by contractions." I also happened to come across the story of a California man named Bob Fletcher -- who passed away in 2013 at the age of 101. (Linking to a bit more about him below)
When Americans of Japanese descent were being rounded up and put into internment camps, he felt in his conscience to try and preserve the farms of at least three of the local families until they could return -- and that's what he did. The part that got to me was how he was ostracized and shunned for decades by other members of his community.
Fletcher would certainly agree with you that our treatment of those we put in camps -- as well as his treatment by the community -- were "an embarrassment and antithetical to our American beliefs." Only the rise of MAGA leads me to believe there's something else very powerful operating in our American core. My hypothesis is that we espouse beliefs that we rarely examine.
Thomas, here is an interview about a new book by Paul Starr that deals with this topic, "American Contradiction: Revolution and Revenge from the 1950s to Now"
Made my calls encouraging our Democrats to “be ambitious” in the negotiations… I encouraged my representative to think of the Democrats bursting onto the field like a football team at the beginning of a game when the shutdown is finally over. I also tripled my monthly contribution to our audacious multi state party support fund. Watching the interview with the Chair from Maine was so inspiring! I’m so happy to be part of that project and our whole Hopium family effort. I hope everyone’s feeling a little(or a lot) better this week, can rest up and feel energized for the next chapter :)
Called my MOC today, still writing postcards for Aftyn Behn. Asked my Rep., Jim McGovern, to make video content outside Johnson’s office. Put Jeffries’ name over Johnson’s, who thinks Dems are in control and seems to have quit. Message daily about our budget priorities. We have a huge opportunity here and sober shadow hearings, while substantive, don’t go viral.
Spot on Simon and it is all doable but we need a lot more Democratic leaders with vision. Women and young people are the future of this nation. They must engage and work, I have hope!
Keep chipping away and turn Trumps fake gold and marble into dust. And sweep him out along with it.
Contacted reps with Simon’s top 4. Encouraged boldness. More postcards! Taking food to a small local restaurant that is comping all food donations it receives for a local food pantry.
We’re potentially in DEEP TROUBLE if the tariffs are ruled unconstitutional. The ramifications of such a reversal will have an impact domestically and internationally that need to be immediately addressed plus will be compounded by the lack of a budget. From the beginning, DOGE and the GOP have not been transparent making the situation unprecedented and unpredictable. It’s important to know where we stand.
I will be writing about this in the coming days. Agree.
Thank you, Simon.
I have been wondering about that scenario too. The complexity of paying back the tariffs, and then the resulting impact on the deficit, is alarming. I don't know how they can get a budget together at all with that uncertainty looming.
Coupled to all the uncertainty with no economic data generated by the government, I'm not sure how anyone could plan or predict the near term future. How is the Fed functioning in this situation?
The AI bubble might be in the early stages of popping. I think earlier in the year when the stock market was tanking, after Liberation Day, his poll numbers went down. A market correction is going to hurt his numbers if it happens again. A lot of these older, relatively well-off seniors depend on their 401K investments, and many are Trump voters.
If AI investments substantially slow, it seems like a recession or worse is a lot more likely.
Yes an economic perfect storm
I'm thinking this about the AI bubble, too. Wired had a great terrifying yet entertaining piece about AI compared to tech bubbles in history. They said that it appears to be most like radio and aviation, both of which produced bubbles that popped in 1929, as part of and maybe contributor to the big crash.
Think this is the story - no gift link option, sorry:
https://www.wired.com/story/ai-bubble-will-burst/
Thanks. I wish I could read it, but I might not have enough time to do it even if it wasn't behind the paywall.
The other bubble is crypto. There's a lot riding on all this stuff. Crypto deserves to pop.
AI will have applications. But I think right now it is highly oversold. The way many people look at it is just unrealistic.
I heard the idiot Sec. Energy, Chris Wright, talking about how he spends time using AI to solve the problem of Dark Matter, and to cure cancer. I guess just solving one of those isn't enough to keep him busy, along with running DOE. If I was in charge of someone who said something that idiotic I'd fire them on the spot.
These are tools that will probably eliminate jobs just by making workers in some areas more efficient. They aren't "thinking" in a way that is going to solve major problems. At least not yet.
Thinking is not high on their list.
Yeah, I have had a nagging feeling that it may indeed be as bad or worse than 2008, or the late 90s .com crash. I feel like with the current global scenario, it could very well be on the scale of 1929. Andrew Ross Sorkin has a brand new book called 1929, I am going to check it out.
I understand the stock market frenzy has made a lot of economic analysts nervous. Greed gets in the way of clear thinking. The stock and trade of these folks has been yelling over the opposition. They did that last time until we had the recession. These are reckless folks who are willing to risk everything no matter what the cost.
Justice Barrett said paying back the tariffs would be a "mess." So she's at least contemplating the ramifications of striking down the tariffs.
That doesn’t reassure me. If they are illegal, and I think they are, it is how she should rule.
Simon, thanks for the uplifting discussion!
BTW, we're watching Youngkin try to create his non-MAGA personality so he can run for VA Senate against Mark Warner. He moved quickly on SNAP and is being nicey-nice to Spanberger. Another Republican who's moving away from Trump. He's slippery and slimy, but you don't need to be a weather man to see which way the wind blows.
Two queries: Is there anything we can do to help with Tennessee's special election? I read MAGA Mike Johnson might be holding Adelita Grijalva's swearing in until he gets an R vote to counter hers?? Also, I live in Montgomery County, MD. Is there anyone I should be bugging about the Resolution of Condemnation that I thought was going to be introduced?
I contacted Senator Schumer's office to urge him to stand strong and not squander this week's victory. I called Congresman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen with the same message.
Nice Dylan reference! yes, he is a slippery one. Good luck against Mark Warner, pal.
Postcards To Voters is runnjng a Special Election postcard campaign for Aftyn Behn in Tennessee now.
Thanks! Just got 50 addresses.
Thanks I think I might give that a shot. I was wondering where I might go to do that. I have a bunch of already-stamped postcards sitting on my desk at home.
I love your description of Gov. Trumpkin. He is indeed oily. I fear he could be a strong GOP presidential contender because he is skilled at misrepresenting himself. And he's a rich venture capitalist, which for some reason Republicans seem to think is a good background for a politician.
In addition to the Postcards To Voters campaign for the Dem in the Tennessee special election, you can donate to her here: https://www.aftynforcongress.com/
Would it counter hers? I thought it was 218 no matter what.
I watched Lawrence O’Donnell last night and he stated the loss of USAID has already accounted for the loss of 600,000 lives. I believe he said 2/3 of these were children. When histories of the Trump years are written someday, the sheer loss of life under his rule will no doubt be staggering.
Yes, considering it was ALREADY staggering bc of COVID. JFC.
And the money going to Argentina could have been used to preserve those 600,000 lives. Not just criminal, monstrous. Utterly immoral.
I was also struck by the “Liberty and Prosperity” motto. It’s perfect for our times, and was a wonderful close to Gov Elect Sherrill’s speech.
Agree, and I like the historical reference back to the Revolutionary War. Did a little digging this morning and the terms were taken from the state seal designed in that era and refer to the goddesses Libertas and Ceres shown on the seal and the flag. Nice flag by the way, almost up there with the CA Bear :)
"The figure of Liberty, holding a staff with a liberty cap, plainly symbolizes New Jersey's claim of freedom from royal rule and from arbitrary government, generally. https://dspace.njstatelib.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/ff2f5646-a59c-4736-a353-88579c4baa2e/content
A question: Is there anything to the rumor that a group of Democratic Senators (including Slotkin, Kelly, Rosen…) are about to cave on the shutdown and agree to the CR?
There are ongoing conversations in both chambers about how to get out of this, as we should hope. "Senate Democrats spent a two-hour caucus meeting Thursday taking stock of where things stand and came to this conclusion: Why on earth would we fold now? "
https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/shutdown-day-38/
Good. When you win a resounding victory, it should be the time to increase demands. That seems kind of obvious.
Trump seems to think punishing Americans will get him out of it. It's dumb but disheartening too. Cancelling food, now flights.
Thank you, Simon!
Simon thank you for everything!! Will you be adding Sherrod Brown to your Winning the Midterms fundraising list?
Simon--"rankle"? Did you write/intend "wrangle"? Just passing it along. Another great piece, but having learned so much these last nine months or so, I also think Dem leadership needs a quick response team to scenario plan for various desperate gasping dying Trump gambits. Federal judges let 'em have it yesterday. Deservedly.
I say we go for the throat. "Abolish Ice" and "Medicare for All." Force the Republicans to go to the Center to meet us instead of the Democrats always having to move right.
Love this idea…I’m having a hard time finding any info re the behind the scenes Senate negotiations tht Ossoff, Shaheen, Cortez Masto and a couple other “moderate” Dems are allegedly having with Republicans that could include reopening the govt with only the offer of maybe a vote sometime in the future re whether to extend ACA subsidies! I hope this is incorrect, but I can’t get more info about it…I’m hoping Simon will comment on it at some point…
Heartening!
Anyone here have direct experience of talking to a staffer during shutdown? Imagine it varies. Happy to call/use email on their pages, but wondering if we have any better or sharper ways to get attention. When Fetterman's WIFE was running for the position he doesn't grace very well, airplanes with banners worked. Do the deliver trucks with wraps have an effect?
For me, decide whom you're trying to reach with messages, with the $$$ you have, then plan accordingly after research. Could be a combination of things...
thank you!
The way I see it, this past weeks elections were just a drop in the bucket with respect what is needed going forward to defeat this felon criminal and his complicit MAGA crowd! America has a long way to go as result of the past several months of Republican rule, certainly not leadership! To lead is to respect and appreciate others views and opinions as well as following our laws! This current Republican regime is full of criminally minded individuals that believe that their way is the only and best way to go! They continued to ignore the outcry of the American people, by listening to the con man and felon in the WH that he and they have a “mandate”to do all the cruel acts that his ICE agents are committing against humanity and our own Constitution! In addition, to killing individuals on the high sea that he the felon says are drug runners without one shred of evidence to prove their reported drug running.
This entire criminal regime is an embarrassment and antithetical to our American beliefs of “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”. Everyday we each awake, we have an uneasy feeling as to whether or not our freedoms will be ended or severely hampered by a tyrant, wanna be king and his sycophants!
We are just at the beginning of this tyrannical regime and we must wake every day with a plan to fight it until it’s no longer a threat to our core values! God Bless you all! And let’s keep fighting America!
(Like) Your post supplied a lot of food for thought. This morning, I spent some time looking over the election results in a lot of our northern counties here in Georgia -- four of which are in my very red district. Those counties were just as red as ever.
I looked over at Floyd County in MTG's district -- the most populated (Rome, GA) -- and the spread was nearly the same as last November's. No MTG effect as of yet.
I think my best hypothesis to this point is that Democrats can certainly win in Georgia -- and these two statewide races won big for the two Democrats -- but only if we turn out in the way we did this election. (end of note 1)
Note 2: I heard Senator Warnock speaking this morning about our democracy in regression. He said something like "New birth is often accompanied by contractions." I also happened to come across the story of a California man named Bob Fletcher -- who passed away in 2013 at the age of 101. (Linking to a bit more about him below)
When Americans of Japanese descent were being rounded up and put into internment camps, he felt in his conscience to try and preserve the farms of at least three of the local families until they could return -- and that's what he did. The part that got to me was how he was ostracized and shunned for decades by other members of his community.
Fletcher would certainly agree with you that our treatment of those we put in camps -- as well as his treatment by the community -- were "an embarrassment and antithetical to our American beliefs." Only the rise of MAGA leads me to believe there's something else very powerful operating in our American core. My hypothesis is that we espouse beliefs that we rarely examine.
https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Bob_Fletcher/
Thomas, here is an interview about a new book by Paul Starr that deals with this topic, "American Contradiction: Revolution and Revenge from the 1950s to Now"
https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/going-from-obama-to-trump-how-did?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=9xdq6&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Thank you!!! for that introduction. I really needed to hear this today.
Made my calls encouraging our Democrats to “be ambitious” in the negotiations… I encouraged my representative to think of the Democrats bursting onto the field like a football team at the beginning of a game when the shutdown is finally over. I also tripled my monthly contribution to our audacious multi state party support fund. Watching the interview with the Chair from Maine was so inspiring! I’m so happy to be part of that project and our whole Hopium family effort. I hope everyone’s feeling a little(or a lot) better this week, can rest up and feel energized for the next chapter :)
Called my MOC today, still writing postcards for Aftyn Behn. Asked my Rep., Jim McGovern, to make video content outside Johnson’s office. Put Jeffries’ name over Johnson’s, who thinks Dems are in control and seems to have quit. Message daily about our budget priorities. We have a huge opportunity here and sober shadow hearings, while substantive, don’t go viral.
Also, wondering whether Simon might interview Amanda Litman (?) of Run for Something. They had enormous success on Tuesday!
I second this!
I’d love that!
Spot on Simon and it is all doable but we need a lot more Democratic leaders with vision. Women and young people are the future of this nation. They must engage and work, I have hope!