Yeah I think he's just looking for something he can call a "win", something he can sell, and maybe something else he might get from the people who have been bribing him, and then it ends.
He just needs something he believes he can sell as a victory. It's whenever that point is reached in his own mind. Bad initial polling might make him hang on longer... or go to a new war, like Cuba.
Exactly! That's the problem. He will get very bored with this within days -- all those meetings with the top brass! YAWN! He'll want to get out because he thinks he was demonstrated strength, but that might not be possible given the incredibly high stakes. Ugh.
Thank you for this thoughtful essay, which lays it all out in coherent form and with supporting data. Will make my calls shortly! Former Rep. Tom Malinowski was just on Contrarian discussing the debacle, said pretty much the same thing. Looking forward to hearing from Rep. Smith. Keep going!
I would add today’s "Letter from an American" from Heather Cox Richardson to that mix. Trump’s lack of strategy – or even coherent thinking – is glaring and damning. Definitely worth a read after Simon.
Thanks for that reminder, you’re right, HCR’s piece was a great companion. Points out the 🍊💩 is both calling for the Iranian people to “rise up” (regime change) and saying he’s willing to talk to the current leadership (not regime change). Incoherent
Her article, combined with Simon’s analysis, tells you everything you need to know. I called my representative and senators and told them that we can do two things at once – we can insist on reining in the president from embroiling us in a war, and we can require that the Republicans pass our version of the funding bill.
I think there are some key things that are overlooked about the decision to strike Iran. Here is a fresh, striking analysis from Haviv Rettig Gur. He argues that this is *not* the USA being manipulated by Bibi into "riding piggyback" on Israel’s conflict with Iran! Keyword: China.
Simon, thank you especially for the list of all the ways that Trump is failing -- it's a long list!
I'm glad to hear that Stuart is safe; I saw his post from Ukraine last night.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to ask them to vote against the war and to hold the line on not funding ICE, and to remind them that they need to be regularly discussing the fact that the president is not in touch with reality due to his mental decline. I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters about redistricting.
He is so far gone he couldn't even inform the country of his attack in person. Who knows how many times they had to record the video announcement before he got one right.
I too am writing postcards to VA about redistricting. I'll call Rep Miller-Meeks and Sens Grassley and Ernst on the war powers bills and ICE; I left voicemail for them on both topics this weekend.
If you believe in ghosts you might think Saddam Hussein helped name this war. "Epic Fury" is designed to make weak cowards appear strong and brave, like "the mother of all battles."
They might fool themselves, but they won't fool us.
Need to add a new title to the litany of Trump titles: Generalissimo. Next video put out won't be him wearing a stupid baseball hat to cover his receding orange, slicked-back hair but rather a commander's hat with lots of gold "scrambled eggs" on the visor. And a jacket with big, oversized gold epaulettes on the shoulders so he looks like the dictatorial strong man he wants to be instead of the stooped, hunched, fat, out-of-shape, addle-brained old man he is.
And he wasn't just starting this war from Mar-a-Lago. He was starting it from a $1million per plate FUNDRAISER AT MAR-A-LAGO. Nothing like lining your coffers while sending US troops off to war.
As someone with a loved one serving - idealistic, brilliant, patriotic - I am sickened by the grifting, narcissistic, megalomaniacal, toxic male baby man leading this charge where Americans are already dying.
I have read multiple opinion pieces on this subject, some supportive and others not. My conclusion: Israel has a clear strategy (not opining whether it’s sound or not), while Trump does not.
I have noted my objections to Booker & Kim. TBH, I am not pleased with Booker’s weak words, which are frustrating and transparent.
I haven't seen his comments. Can you recommend a good source? Would like to have that in hand prior to calling his office. thx and will keep your loved one in my thoughts.
I think it is overlooked that our "strategy", or objectives, if they can even be defined, do not entirely overlap with Israel. I think Israel is making many short-sighted moves and has for awhile. But I am fairly sure we are not on the same page with them.
We all need to keep in our minds and hearts those serving who deserve better than this.
Fine journalism in action. His Nothingness Donald Trump had loads of time leading up to the Iran attack to have multiple conversations with Saudi Crown Prince MBS but had no time to have even one discussion with Congress or the American people. Apparently, dictators only have time for other dictators. And yes, MBS is the Saudi royal who ordered the murder of American journalist Jamal Kashoggi.
At this point, in his vernacular, the military death toll in his Iran war is four 'suckers and losers down' and 'there likely will be more'. Trump is really good at Making America Mad Again, Making America Sad Again and Making America Last but is a complete failure at Making America Great.
I know there’s a lot going on but I woke up thinking part of it is Trump just wants to keep replicating Obama’s successful pursuit of Bin Laden, as well as the famous photograph from that moment. He is very compromised now. I also saw a Republican campaign ad drawn from that moment in SOTU when Trump said stand up if you’re against immigrant criminals or something like that. It seems completely drafted by Miller, and I thought if he’s in charge of such messaging they may waste a lot of money on attack ads that don’t work.
The rank incompetence of this administration guarantees another failed front, but this one loaded with major shooting-themselves-in-the-foot damage: US casualties; chaos not change in Iran; angry Arab allies no longer trusting US; fueling of inflation. As soon as he catches on to the reality, which will it be? Ignominious quick retreat that he labels victory OR another forever Middle East war as he attempts to double down with no plan.
I called all three of my Representatives on the war act resolution and the DHS funding. I'm headed to pick up postcard stamps for the Virginia redistricting vote..
Another reason to impeach Noem: moving domestic terrorism personnel to immigration, weakening protection against domestic terrorism. That wasn't her decision no doubt, but she has the title.
How about defining "success" as "we destroyed any idea of a long-term plan for regime change"? How's that for a fucking stupid way to characterize "success". It was so successful, we destroyed our hope of success. If they ever had communicated their so-called regime-change plan to the military officers carry out the strikes, which is a big "if". Sure they wanted to knock out the Supreme leader. But did the military even know who they were supposed to not kill?
Even if the above is the case, we should be trying to convince the Iranians they can't trust each other. We are sort of telegraphing that we've already failed because anyone we thought we could work with has now accidentally been killed.
My money is on whoever controls the guys with the guns, which are the IRGC. No one else has guns. So the regime will be whoever controls those guys. We have no allies on the ground with guns.
The other thing I've been wondering about is that there were many reports that seemed to be leaking from Whisky Pete's Department of Whatever that our stock of weapons is depleted by all of the bombing that's been going on. Isn't that, I don't know, secret information? How long are we going to be able to keep up this attack before we run out of steam?
I can't even tell that Netanyahu's aims coincide with ours. It appears they do not. I think he's more worried about air defense and missiles that can reach Israel, less about regime change (assuming that really is our goal). The Israelis just want to be able to easily go in and knock back any progress with the nuclear program.
The traveling salesmen Witkoff and Kushner will get themselves some good deals. We just have to expend a few billion dollars more of taxpayer dollars, probably some additional lost lives, and they might get some new hotels to replace the ones destroyed. Maybe another golf course!
You have to hand it to Trump though. Keeping the "objectives" fluid means that he doesn't pin himself down, and he can declare a massive and decisive victory at any point it stops being useful to him. I personally think not defining clear objectives is actually a political choice, not just pure incompetence.
I continue to be mystified and frustrated that Trump's poll numbers remain so high among Republicans. In the Reuters-Ipsos poll, his approval among Republicans ranges from 67-80% for cost of living, foreign policy, the economy and immigration! I know these people are brainwashed by right-wing media, but why are they so impervious to reality? Since Trump sees himself as President only for his MAGA base, I fear these high GOP approvals continue to encourage his shit.
Wow. Thanks much for sharing. Michael. This paragraph, in particular, really hit home for me as worth widely sharing (which I'm going to do in social):
"The institutions that worked in Venezuela, both intelligence and military, were built over generations on the foundations that Trump and his administration deny: that career civil servants matter; that the government works; that science is true; that research is valuable; that immigrant scientists do valuable work; that long-term planning works; and, ultimately, that facts are facts. Trump and his people could never have built such institutions. They can only exploit their existence. And as they exploit, they weaken."
What do you want to bet that Trump thought he could put this baby to bed over the weekend and notch his gun without any consequences?
... only if he thought it through that far...
Good point.
Yeah I think he's just looking for something he can call a "win", something he can sell, and maybe something else he might get from the people who have been bribing him, and then it ends.
He just needs something he believes he can sell as a victory. It's whenever that point is reached in his own mind. Bad initial polling might make him hang on longer... or go to a new war, like Cuba.
He can start 'em, but he doesn't have the power to end them.
Exactly! That's the problem. He will get very bored with this within days -- all those meetings with the top brass! YAWN! He'll want to get out because he thinks he was demonstrated strength, but that might not be possible given the incredibly high stakes. Ugh.
Thank you for this thoughtful essay, which lays it all out in coherent form and with supporting data. Will make my calls shortly! Former Rep. Tom Malinowski was just on Contrarian discussing the debacle, said pretty much the same thing. Looking forward to hearing from Rep. Smith. Keep going!
I would add today’s "Letter from an American" from Heather Cox Richardson to that mix. Trump’s lack of strategy – or even coherent thinking – is glaring and damning. Definitely worth a read after Simon.
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/march-1-2026
thank you - will read later
Thanks for that reminder, you’re right, HCR’s piece was a great companion. Points out the 🍊💩 is both calling for the Iranian people to “rise up” (regime change) and saying he’s willing to talk to the current leadership (not regime change). Incoherent
Her article, combined with Simon’s analysis, tells you everything you need to know. I called my representative and senators and told them that we can do two things at once – we can insist on reining in the president from embroiling us in a war, and we can require that the Republicans pass our version of the funding bill.
One more thing:
I think there are some key things that are overlooked about the decision to strike Iran. Here is a fresh, striking analysis from Haviv Rettig Gur. He argues that this is *not* the USA being manipulated by Bibi into "riding piggyback" on Israel’s conflict with Iran! Keyword: China.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-94-americas-war-not-israels/id1794590850?i=1000752614732
Simon, thank you especially for the list of all the ways that Trump is failing -- it's a long list!
I'm glad to hear that Stuart is safe; I saw his post from Ukraine last night.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to ask them to vote against the war and to hold the line on not funding ICE, and to remind them that they need to be regularly discussing the fact that the president is not in touch with reality due to his mental decline. I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters about redistricting.
He is so far gone he couldn't even inform the country of his attack in person. Who knows how many times they had to record the video announcement before he got one right.
I too am writing postcards to VA about redistricting. I'll call Rep Miller-Meeks and Sens Grassley and Ernst on the war powers bills and ICE; I left voicemail for them on both topics this weekend.
I watched the press conference with Hegseth and Caine this morning. Caine came across as professional. Hegseth was shrill and histrionic.
If you believe in ghosts you might think Saddam Hussein helped name this war. "Epic Fury" is designed to make weak cowards appear strong and brave, like "the mother of all battles."
They might fool themselves, but they won't fool us.
On MeidasTouch, Ben is calling it Epstein Fury.
Operation Epstein Failure b
Need to add a new title to the litany of Trump titles: Generalissimo. Next video put out won't be him wearing a stupid baseball hat to cover his receding orange, slicked-back hair but rather a commander's hat with lots of gold "scrambled eggs" on the visor. And a jacket with big, oversized gold epaulettes on the shoulders so he looks like the dictatorial strong man he wants to be instead of the stooped, hunched, fat, out-of-shape, addle-brained old man he is.
And he wasn't just starting this war from Mar-a-Lago. He was starting it from a $1million per plate FUNDRAISER AT MAR-A-LAGO. Nothing like lining your coffers while sending US troops off to war.
Like Stilwell said of Chiang Kai-Shek: “Too much -issimo, not enough general.”
As someone with a loved one serving - idealistic, brilliant, patriotic - I am sickened by the grifting, narcissistic, megalomaniacal, toxic male baby man leading this charge where Americans are already dying.
I have read multiple opinion pieces on this subject, some supportive and others not. My conclusion: Israel has a clear strategy (not opining whether it’s sound or not), while Trump does not.
I have noted my objections to Booker & Kim. TBH, I am not pleased with Booker’s weak words, which are frustrating and transparent.
We will keep your loved one in our hearts.
I haven't seen his comments. Can you recommend a good source? Would like to have that in hand prior to calling his office. thx and will keep your loved one in my thoughts.
You tube is probably the best bet at this point. Use these words to search 'there will likely be more'
No statement in support of War Powers Resolution, only posted after reports of first US casualties. Stark contrast to Kim.
https://bsky.app/profile/booker.senate.gov/post/3mfz35zv3qk2l
thanks, yeah that's pretty lame
I think it is overlooked that our "strategy", or objectives, if they can even be defined, do not entirely overlap with Israel. I think Israel is making many short-sighted moves and has for awhile. But I am fairly sure we are not on the same page with them.
We all need to keep in our minds and hearts those serving who deserve better than this.
Fine journalism in action. His Nothingness Donald Trump had loads of time leading up to the Iran attack to have multiple conversations with Saudi Crown Prince MBS but had no time to have even one discussion with Congress or the American people. Apparently, dictators only have time for other dictators. And yes, MBS is the Saudi royal who ordered the murder of American journalist Jamal Kashoggi.
At this point, in his vernacular, the military death toll in his Iran war is four 'suckers and losers down' and 'there likely will be more'. Trump is really good at Making America Mad Again, Making America Sad Again and Making America Last but is a complete failure at Making America Great.
I know there’s a lot going on but I woke up thinking part of it is Trump just wants to keep replicating Obama’s successful pursuit of Bin Laden, as well as the famous photograph from that moment. He is very compromised now. I also saw a Republican campaign ad drawn from that moment in SOTU when Trump said stand up if you’re against immigrant criminals or something like that. It seems completely drafted by Miller, and I thought if he’s in charge of such messaging they may waste a lot of money on attack ads that don’t work.
And the ads about said "criminals" are all over MSM. UGH.
The rank incompetence of this administration guarantees another failed front, but this one loaded with major shooting-themselves-in-the-foot damage: US casualties; chaos not change in Iran; angry Arab allies no longer trusting US; fueling of inflation. As soon as he catches on to the reality, which will it be? Ignominious quick retreat that he labels victory OR another forever Middle East war as he attempts to double down with no plan.
I called all three of my Representatives on the war act resolution and the DHS funding. I'm headed to pick up postcard stamps for the Virginia redistricting vote..
Another reason to impeach Noem: moving domestic terrorism personnel to immigration, weakening protection against domestic terrorism. That wasn't her decision no doubt, but she has the title.
How about defining "success" as "we destroyed any idea of a long-term plan for regime change"? How's that for a fucking stupid way to characterize "success". It was so successful, we destroyed our hope of success. If they ever had communicated their so-called regime-change plan to the military officers carry out the strikes, which is a big "if". Sure they wanted to knock out the Supreme leader. But did the military even know who they were supposed to not kill?
Even if the above is the case, we should be trying to convince the Iranians they can't trust each other. We are sort of telegraphing that we've already failed because anyone we thought we could work with has now accidentally been killed.
My money is on whoever controls the guys with the guns, which are the IRGC. No one else has guns. So the regime will be whoever controls those guys. We have no allies on the ground with guns.
The other thing I've been wondering about is that there were many reports that seemed to be leaking from Whisky Pete's Department of Whatever that our stock of weapons is depleted by all of the bombing that's been going on. Isn't that, I don't know, secret information? How long are we going to be able to keep up this attack before we run out of steam?
I can't even tell that Netanyahu's aims coincide with ours. It appears they do not. I think he's more worried about air defense and missiles that can reach Israel, less about regime change (assuming that really is our goal). The Israelis just want to be able to easily go in and knock back any progress with the nuclear program.
The traveling salesmen Witkoff and Kushner will get themselves some good deals. We just have to expend a few billion dollars more of taxpayer dollars, probably some additional lost lives, and they might get some new hotels to replace the ones destroyed. Maybe another golf course!
You have to hand it to Trump though. Keeping the "objectives" fluid means that he doesn't pin himself down, and he can declare a massive and decisive victory at any point it stops being useful to him. I personally think not defining clear objectives is actually a political choice, not just pure incompetence.
This aligns with one of his favorite statements. "We'll see."
Sorry … Spangerberger? (I can’t help it — typos find me.)
Timothy Snyder gives a thought provoking commentary this morning on the war and our lying p.o.s. antagonist. Truth is still the truth.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-189659227
"I believe this is the first poll showing his approval on inflation/cost of living/tariffs in the 20s:"
... and more of this please. Much, much more... and damned soon!
I continue to be mystified and frustrated that Trump's poll numbers remain so high among Republicans. In the Reuters-Ipsos poll, his approval among Republicans ranges from 67-80% for cost of living, foreign policy, the economy and immigration! I know these people are brainwashed by right-wing media, but why are they so impervious to reality? Since Trump sees himself as President only for his MAGA base, I fear these high GOP approvals continue to encourage his shit.
and here is Stuart Stevens posting from Ukraine yesterday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO_IuJzRvv8
Thank you
Wow. Thanks much for sharing. Michael. This paragraph, in particular, really hit home for me as worth widely sharing (which I'm going to do in social):
"The institutions that worked in Venezuela, both intelligence and military, were built over generations on the foundations that Trump and his administration deny: that career civil servants matter; that the government works; that science is true; that research is valuable; that immigrant scientists do valuable work; that long-term planning works; and, ultimately, that facts are facts. Trump and his people could never have built such institutions. They can only exploit their existence. And as they exploit, they weaken."
Left messages for my Senators, Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla. BTW, the “5 Calls” app makes it SO easy!