Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Upcoming Hopium Events - Political Briefing Tuesday, Virginia Oct 3rd, Tom Bonier Oct 11th
Lots of opportunities to talk about the Dems strong electoral performance this year!
All of a sudden we have a lot of events on the books. Each will be an opportunity to review the Democratic Party’s very strong performance in 2023, and discuss how we can make sure these November elections are everything we want them to be. Here’s our working schedule for the next few weeks, and all Hopium events will be recorded and available on the site if you can’t make it live…..
Tue, September 26th, 7pm ET - Full Hopium community Political Briefing and Discussion with Simon - RSVP here. Lots to talk about - looking forward to getting together with everyone!
Tue, October 3rd, 7pm ET - Hopium/Network NOVA Virginia Election Briefing and Call To Action with Virginia House Campaign Chair Delegate Dan Helmer - RSVP here. Excited for this one! We will be getting a live update from the Delegate in charge of the Virginia House races, the impressive Dan Helmer, and going over where your money and volunteer time can make the biggest difference in the home stretch. To learn more watch this interview with Delegate Helmer and check out our recent Virginia roundup.
Wed, October 11th, 7pm ET - Simon and Tom Bonior Talk Polls, Election Data and The Strong Dem Performance Since Dobbs - RSVP here. A year from our influential “red wave” collaboration, I asked my good friend and data guru Tom Bonier to come spend some time with us reviewing the very strong performance of the Democratic Party since the Dobbs decision in June, 2022. I always learn from Tom when we talk, and I am sure you will too!
Spreading Hopium - Upcoming Grassroots Events - Feel Free to Join Us!
Wed, September 27th, 11am ET - Simon presents to Seniors Taking Action
Wed, September 27th, 7pm ET - Simon and Robert Hubbell join Big Tent USA, “Building A Pro-Democracy Coalition” - Learn More, RSVP
Thur, October 5th, 7pm ET - Simon joins Force Multiplier For A Flip The House Fundraiser for 13 Top Candidates for the US House of Representatives - Learn More, Donate/RSVP
Tue, October 10th, 7pm - Simon presents to Floridians For Democracy
Tue, October 24th, 830pm ET - Simon joins California Indivisibles For A Hope-Filled Political Update - Learn More, RSVP
The Election Data and Narratives I’m Focused On Now
The Democratic Party Is Strong - Democrats have won more votes in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, the best popular vote run of any political party in US history. In the last 4 Presidential elections, Democrats have averaged 51% of the vote, our best showing over 4 elections since FDR’s Presidency. Can we improve on that performance and get to 55% nationally in 2024? I think so.
Democrats Keep Outperforming Expectations - In a “red wave” year, 2022, Democrats gained ground from 2020 in 7 key battlegrounds: AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA. We also picked up 4 state legislative chambers, 2 governorships, and 1 US Senate seat. As we’ve written 2022 was not a single nationalized election, but really two elections - a bluer election in the battleground where we gained, and a redder election outside where we did not. We’ve seen this strong Dem performance continue into 2023 with impressive wins in CO, FL, OH and WI and in special elections across the US. A new 538 analysis: Democrats have been wining big in special elections finds Dems outperforming the partisan lean in districts this year by an average of 10 points in close to 40 special elections across the US - this is a big deal, and similar to what we saw post-Dobbs last year. The Daily Kos special election tracker now has Dems up 7.6 points over 2020 in 27 elections this year. Very encouraging stuff.
The Blueing of the Southwest - Democrats are having their best run in the Southwest since the 1940s and 50s. In 2004 Bush won AZ, CO, NM, NV, Rs controlled 5 of their 8 Senate seats, 14 of their 21 House seats. In 2020 Biden was the first Democratic President to win all 4 of these states in a single election since FDR. Today Rs control none of those 8 Senate seats and we control 14 of 24 House seats there. Our success with Hispanic voters and in heavily Hispanic parts of the country remains one of the Democratic Party’s most successful party-wide efforts over the past generation of US politics.
We Need To Put Young Americans At The Center of Everything We Do -
Keep working hard all - Simon