Welcome. Mike Johnson is a synonym for Creepy Shit as far as I’m concerned. Ignore the noise and focus on what you can do to ensure a Harris Walz victory. Try to leave the anxiety at the door.
These are difficult times. I’m focusing on a few things. Trump has done nothing to outreach to voters outside of his base and in fact keeps driving people away. Harris has raised a historic amount of money, most of it from small and/or first time voters. Her coalition includes everyone from AOC and Bernie to Dick Cheney. She has run a flawless, inspiring campaign. Women and the men who love them are concerned and angry post Dobbs. And unlike Trump, she has a real ground game. It’s all about turn out now, and her campaign has got that covered.
Cypher, my suggestion is to see whether Marc Elias of Democracy Docket will weigh in on this. Elias is probably the foremost election lawyer in the country, and he and his team are working for the Democrats. Another notable expert to confer with is Rick Hasen, one of the finest election law experts. Both have notable blogs/websites.
Let me know if you need links. If so, I’ll find them and add them.
You’re welcome, hope you get your answers. There may already be some on their excellent blogs. But I strongly suggest that Hopium is not the right forum for discussing the legalese of such extreme scenarios.
Elias, Brian Tyler Cohen and Congressman Jamie Raskin did a zoom last night that precisely addresses your question along with fantastic educational value on electoral processes
Thanks for this. I will note that Harris has stated in interviews that her team and the Democratic Party are prepared for MAGA fuckery. (She didn’t say it precisely like that but you get the point.) That means lots of money and a team of great lawyers ready to go. We’re not talking Alina Habba here. Again, I’d rather be us than them.
Both Johnson and Trump are tight with Christian nationalists. Trump went down to Georgia and had a bunch of ministers bless him a few days ago. Evangelical activist Ralph Reed is running a turnout operation in the battlegrounds that has supposedly contacted 8 million people. That may be their little "secret." Who knows. They're desperate to keep Dobbs in place. We have to keep getting our people to the polls and outvote them.
At this point, I would not worry too much about the polls. In all of them, Harris is leading, tied, or down within the margin of error. Turnout is what matters now.
They’re within many of the large, reputable polls. Like, you have Registered Voters, Likely Voters (however they choose to model that), and confirmed voters who have already cast their ballot (a larger number over the past few elections since we’ve generally opened up the ease of early voting across the nation).
Understood. I just havent seen any data that illustrates casted votes with a 20+ Harris lead. Is that data available somewhere or is that more of an internal source.
Depends on the poll , state or national, and how transparent the pollster is. But you can take a reputable one and dig into the cross tabs and you can see.
That said, I don’t recommend doing this. The sample error of small groups can be quite high. Then you have other error sources. So again, take it with a grain of salt as a positive indicator and move on.
I believe that we had a +9.5 advantage nationwide in 2020 at this point, which is unsurprising given COVID. Despite this, there is strong evidence that we’re winning by - possibly - large margins, suggesting that there are a lot of R defections to us. Also, the high percentage of women voters is a good sign. Rs also seem to be cannabalizing more of their ED vote than we are.
Craig, could you point us to where this strong evidence is? I agree that the large numbers of women voters is a good sign, but apart from the gender gap, how does one infer whether voters are casting ballots for Harris or Trump?
Most polls of early voters are showing Harris leading 2-1. If the party affiliation of early voters is virtually split evenly among D-R according to Tom Bonier, the only explanation is that a lot of those Rs are voting D. The gender split has been running about 55-44 female as well, which suggests women are driving that 2-1 split.
Now that I can’t postcard any more I plan to phone bank (Harris & Tester) or canvass locally every day. Volunteering to be a Dem poll watcher for EV this weekend. Also may try to help with ballot curing in NV. Working hard is the only thing that will make it possible for me to get to sleep for the next week!
Carolyn, more disaffected Republicans are voting for Harris and the Republicans who were told in 2020 to vote on Election Day by Adolph Hitler Trump are now voting 7% more in the early vote!
"…I will always be an American before I am a Republican. That’s why, this week, I am voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. I’m sharing it with all of you because I think there are a lot of you who feel like I do."
And he released a video after the January 6 assault in which he talked about growing up in a nation traumatized by fascism, like "Hey, MAGA, this is a road you really don't want to go down." The guy's not on our team but he hates Nazis.
He's an interesting character. He's on our team for reproductive rights, global climate change, defending democracy abroad, freedom of (or FROM) religion, and respecting science. But he is mostly in favor of deregulation and contraction of the welfare state. He's a very Nixon-esque Republican, without the corruption and racism. He seems to be thoughtful, if not always correct, about his positions.
Certainly possible. From what I understand (I didn't live in CA at the time), he started out his governorship like a bull in a china shop. He took an immediately combative and adversarial stance with the Dems in the state legislature. However, he learned a lot from those battles, and eventually became a decent leader. He was willing to grow during his time in office. That says a lot.
I look at the massive disconnect between the polling averages (close, close!) and the early voting performance to date (we're up by 20+ points in an electorate that is "only currently +2.5 Dem, and 7 points more R than 2020"), and I can only come to one conclusion. We are witnessing a massive case of political-party infidelity. Throughout the country and especially in the battleground states, Republicans are having polling-booth trysts with Kamala and Tim without saying boo about it to friends and family.
ETA: Republican pollster Bill McInturff said a few weeks ago that if we Dems have a lead in the mid-20s by the time Election Day rolls around, the Republicans won't be able to catch up. I assume he was using a 2020 baseline, which puts us at his number and perhaps well above.
This mass outbreak of infidelity is why we're gonna win this election.
Carl, thanks for your great analyses. If you have time to quickly explain --how can one extrapolate, by the EV # -- that Republicans are defecting to such a great degree, when all we know is party registration and gender? Also -- "they cannot catch up" -- how do we know how that translates to the EC, especially PA, NC. How likely that we could be "up 20" and still lose PA? Thanks!
In haste: If we're plus 3 in voter registration and plus 25 in voting, that differential can only come from a combination of indies and defecting R's. If we take the tally at 47-44-9 and give 6% to indies and 46% to us, and if we're up by 22 overall, the remaining 9% has to come from defecting Rs. That puts them at roughly 35--9, which means a defection rate of about 21%.
To your second question, I will confess to some perplexity about PA, especially the polling. PA usually runs in tandem with Wisconsin and Michigan. I also assume that the blue wall states will outperform the Sun Belt battlegrounds by a bit, and polls of actual voters have had us in a healthy lead in those three states. For all these reasons, I cannot help but be optimistic about PA. When there is a political wave, it sweeps over everything.
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans; organizations, historical sites.
3. The Democratic Party has databases that track w3. ho is registered and who has voted, so calling and canvassing should be limited to registered voters yet to vote in most states.
4. In some states. NC, MI, WI, MT, NV registrations remain open and FT 6 is still registering new Democrats. BYOP, free, is texting into MI, NC, NV, WI as I type...https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Tomorrow FT 6 TextArcades will be texting 1400 for each $25 contribution. The recipients are not in voter databases so they don't get many political texts. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24
Voter registration is invaluable right now!!! Thank you. Some of the ballot curing opportunities that FT 6 offers are in-person, canvassing so click on the links because if you live in a swing state there is a whole lot of need for in-person, door to door canvassing. Lots of elderly people need help getting ballots cured (i.e. Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina).
I'm very grateful for all the motivation and education I have received here. When I get "anxious" I remember all of the Republicans for Harris all over the country, many actively canvassing, phone banking, and donating to the Harris-Walz campaign. I think about Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, and Olivia Troye traveling all over on behalf of VP Harris. I also think about the over 700 National Security and Defense Officials who have endorsed VP Harris, many of whom are actively canvassing and phone banking for her. I think about our amazing ground game, all of the rallies, all the appearances on national TV. The fundraising is amazing and being well spent. These rallies and all this travel are very expensive. There is all the surrogate travel also. AOC and Bernie are fabulous surrogates, as are President Obama and Michelle Obama. I think of all the attorneys (such as Marc Elias and Elias Law Group) winning case after case against frivolous maga election lawsuits. Can we watch this evening's video tomorrow?
Thanks for the summary Linda. It sounds like a "permission structure" to me. Republicans for Harris will turn a close race into a victory more commanding for the blue team and American democracy
And let’s not forget a well earned round of applause to former Tea party himself Joe Walsh. Watch his Social Contract often. He has been traveling the country for Kamala.
(UPDATE, 9pm) Today, Arizona, surpassed 50% of their total 2020 turnout, thus joining Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Montana, Tennessee, South Dakota and New Mexico in reaching this milestone. Meanwhile, Georgia continues to up its game, soon approaching an astonishing 70% of their total vote in the 2020 election, while North Carolina and Tennessee are over 60%.
All in all, more than 59 million people have already voted. Over 31 million people have voted Early In-Person, while almost 28 million Mail Ballots have been returned.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for seven swing states plus Florida and Texas:
Other key states; MT/OH/NE are included because of vital Senate races:
MT 51.1% 312,814
VA 37.4% 1,692,388
OH 32.7% 1,952,112<
NE 27.7% 267,699
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
As a reminder, 155 million people voted in 2020. My back of the envelope calculations figure that 165 million people will vote in 2024. In 2020, 10 million more women voted than men. (My numbers are from US Census web page analysis of the vote). If the gender gap remains high, I believe we'll win big.
I have included Virginia, Florida and Texas – three states that might be vulnerable in an extreme Blue Wave or Red Wave election. Although that is seen as unlikely.
Thanks-are you saying Kaine is more vulnerable than other Senators given "an extreme red wave election?" Why are/have you been singling out Virginia? Seems never to have been a concern here with Simon? Just wondering if you are privy to some factual basis for your concern?
Early vote analysis cannot simply be R vs D. I’m hoping, actually assuming that Indy’s will break more for D’s than R’s and I believe there will be many more R defections to Harris (Haley type voters) than D’s to Trump. The math is with D’s as long as they turn out and I think they will.
2020 was a pandemic year, with many people exercising caution and voting early, so it is not comparable to 2024.
That said, Tom Bonier’s TargetEarly (TargetSmart) allows you to make these and other comparisons comparisons. Check out the dashboard, with lots of pull-down choices on the right.
Last night's speech was spectacular, especially from a visual standpoint. In many ways, it reminded me of President Obama's appearance in Grant Park after he won the 2008 election. The big stage, the huge crowd, even the small flags that people were waving. Kudos to a campaign team that knows what they are doing.
When I watched VP Harris last night speaking in front of the White House, I saw a soon-to-be president. Her line about all of us deciding who walks through those doors in 90 days really brought the stakes of this election home. Are we going to allow a guy to enter the White House carrying an enemies list? Or are we going to send a joyful warrior holding her to-do list? Powerful stuff.
Also, I'm more grateful than I can say to Kamala Harris for reclaiming the Ellipse for decent, patriotic Americans. We've got this! Now, let's go win it!
I feel - again, my feelings based on what I've been watching and reading (certainly not from the legacy media) - that we're going to blow this out. So many GOPer voters are coming out loud and proud for Kalama and as one of the Bulwark's recent podcasts said, we have a coalition from Bernie and AOC to the Cheneys! There are also so many GOPer voting groups against Trump as well and I think the early GOPer voting is for Harris/Walz and even down ballot Dems, again, based on what I've been watching and reading on Independent and GOPer pods on YouTube as well as on people's comments in the political subreddits I read.
I'm feeling really good about next Wednesday being historic and will be staying up all night to watch the returns not only for the national election but for my state's elections as well. VoteBlueNoMatterWho2024💙💙💙
I read the transcript of the speech last night and watched it this morning. She looks so presidential and a stark contrast to January 6 and Trump's Sunday hate rally. Let's finish strong!
Hopium Fam, I’ve heard some concerns regarding President Biden’ ‘garbage’ comment he made last evening. I am here to advise you all….don’t fret! Number one, it is NOT getting the kind of media attention one fears it normally would. Number two…it does NOT have the same impact as Hilary publicly calling them deplorable. Remember, most have their minds made up and the only one gaining votes is Harris while 45 is turning them away by the day.
Biden’s comment behind the scenes won’t move the needle as much as the MSG rally rhetoric specifically about Puerto Ricans. Also, Harris’ speech last night was far too palpable to forget especially, for the independent/moderate voters. I think the majority of that necessary voting block knows by now they’re voting for Harris and NOT Biden. Most independent/moderate voters whom are breaking our way according to the data, likely think the way Biden does to one degree or other anyway. In these final hours…his comment isn’t going to be a straw that draws all these people back to 45 all of the sudden. We shouldn’t give this much breathing room as it’s equivalent to doom scrolling. Keep the faith.
I suspect the only people who will be moved the president's gaffe are the perpetually-offended, i.e., MAGA who were always going to vote for Trump anyway. Outrage is their oxygen, but it won't move the needle. They're trying to distract from Trump wearing the 'floating island of garbage' anchor around his neck.
I see nothing wrong with the President's comment (although I get why VP Harris has to distance herself). He just said what most of us were thinking. Probably not the best time to say it, though. Could have worded it differently.
No. Biden’s comment won’t matter and was intended to refer to the speakers at MSG, but from the bottom of my heart I reject objectifying Trump voters as garbage, deplorable, unpatriotic or deserving of hatred or disdain. A few are beyond the pale, but not most. They are our fellow citizens. Remember that. It is hard to hold onto this when we see so much MAGA intransigence, stupidity and hate, but returning hate to hate destroys all possibility of reconciliation. We are one nation, indivisible. If not, why are we here, fighting this good fight?
Listen to Kamala: “There is so much more that unites us than divides us.”
100%. Plus the working class Puerto Rican voters who are pissed off will never see anything about any of this tempest in a teapot and if they did they would probably think “thanks President Biden.” It’s a disgusting story because it shows the rightward orientation of the political press (and how they are owned by right wing talking points) but they also don’t matter. It’s an after the election problem to solve.
You know the press loved it because that is the campaign they wanted to cover. One reporter even tweeted out “Damage control from the Biden campaign” or something close to that. Freudian slip
Performer at a Trump rally calls a Commonwealth of the U.S. "floating garbage"
Trump says if Kamala is elected, the entire country will "be like Detroit"
Trump calls Democrats enemies of the state
Trump says he'll use the military to suppress opposition
Media response to all of the above, "Meh."
Biden slips, immediately corrects himself, and sends out a tweet explaining the slip.
Media response, "Major mistake by Biden at the worst time in the campaign. Will Harris recover from Biden's horrible blunder? Biden calls all Trump supporters "garbage", reneging on his pledge to bring the country together. Biden engages in inflammatory language against Trump supporters."
This sh*t just can't go on if America is to survive and thrive as a deliberative democracy.
Here’s the definition of a gaffe: It is telling the truth at an inconvenient time. That is exactly what Biden did yesterday. And millions of Puerto Rican Americans probably stood up and cheered. As should we. The garbage wasn’t only the filth coming from that guy’s mouth. It was the audience devouring that garbage.
Biden's comment won't cost Harris a vote. Nobody cares. He's not running for President. Over 52 million votes have already been cast. It'll be forgotten by Friday.
I’m so sorry, I didn’t even think that was negative. I was trying to stay ahead of the curb cuz I had anticipated there may be some who would express concern over that gaffe. I am most certainly not a troll. I literally brag about you and Hopium to my family on a daily basis actually to the point in which they’ve told me…‘enough!’ 😂 🤦♂️
You and Hopium have been a huge source of optimism and extraordinary data for me over this period. Please don’t end my subscription, I truly love this community and value your leadership, knowledge, and information. I must really need to look inward I guess because though I’ve always known I can be neurotic, I never realized how negative my commentary has morphed. You must remember in the beginning the array of optimistic commentary I would post right? Just last night, I posted about the incredible speech Harris gave.
Please know I have not lost faith and that I do believe in my gut we will win and big. Like you (except obv you’ve known Harris for years), I’ve long had instincts about her trajectory. I remember specifically bragging to mu family and friends five years ago when she was in the senate that she had an X factor and was one to keep an eye on and always felt if anyone could and would become the first female president, it would be her. The election is in a week and I recognize my anxiety and I’m deeply sorry if it has projected through the community page.
I just want you to know whatever anxiety I have does not outweigh my optimism and gut instincts about this election when all set and done. I’m a relentless champion of Harris and I have full faith in the results and in the system following against any and all concerns. I am planning to make calls this week from Maryland to voters in PA and will proudly keep the community posted if/when I can on that behalf. Please forgive my misguided messages and hopefully you can gleam from the vast majority of messages I’ve written over the course of the year, my cautious optimism and love for Harris and our democracy.
Anything BUT a troll here. I’m a proud tries and true Jewish, Gay, Democrat who loves this country and anyone no matter which side…who is pro Democracy and recognizes the threat 45 is. You, Hopium, Lincoln Project, Allan Lichtman, Brian Tyler Cohen, Mark Elias, Lawrence O’Donnell, Heather Cox Richardson, and many more have been the greatest source of info and inspiration for me, I swear! Love this community! I’ll leave it all at that.
I appreciate the sentiment but Ms. Potter's comment below has merit as well. This is Simon's wheelhouse and it is on me to look inward in these final days and recognize where I can be of more value with both my commentary here in the community and my messaging outside the community as well as, where I am or have been unhelpful. I trust Simon knows my intentions are well meaning. Doesn't matter when all set and done. The bottom line is -- his overarching message is correct -- DMWL about ALL of it and what's most important right now, is to focus on the data, the drive, and the positivity. The rest is just noise and unfortunately, my typical cautiously optimistic self -- fell for the noise. Lesson learned! Kamala is not just a better candidate, she is THE candidate!!! I've felt that since she was in the Senate. I believe in manifest destiny. The energy all around is female and male alliance. This is our time and we are NOT going back! Let's win this damn thing!
We're all on the same team. I got a bit negative myself yesterday, but trying to cull it back today. It happens. We're anxious about who's going to win. Totally understandable. That's why it's good to take that energy and use it for action, like Simon suggests. DMWL. We are winning but haven't won yet!
“So let’s get a couple things straight before this nonsense goes any further. When Biden used the word “garbage,” he was referring to the demonization of Latinos that we saw from Trump’s unhinged hate rally on Sunday.
The Press is lying about what the President actually said. Here is his quote, verbatim: “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters—his—his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American.”
Thanks for the link – but my guess is that Hopium isn’t the place for this anxiety.
Welcome. Mike Johnson is a synonym for Creepy Shit as far as I’m concerned. Ignore the noise and focus on what you can do to ensure a Harris Walz victory. Try to leave the anxiety at the door.
These are difficult times. I’m focusing on a few things. Trump has done nothing to outreach to voters outside of his base and in fact keeps driving people away. Harris has raised a historic amount of money, most of it from small and/or first time voters. Her coalition includes everyone from AOC and Bernie to Dick Cheney. She has run a flawless, inspiring campaign. Women and the men who love them are concerned and angry post Dobbs. And unlike Trump, she has a real ground game. It’s all about turn out now, and her campaign has got that covered.
Cypher, my suggestion is to see whether Marc Elias of Democracy Docket will weigh in on this. Elias is probably the foremost election lawyer in the country, and he and his team are working for the Democrats. Another notable expert to confer with is Rick Hasen, one of the finest election law experts. Both have notable blogs/websites.
Let me know if you need links. If so, I’ll find them and add them.
You’re welcome, hope you get your answers. There may already be some on their excellent blogs. But I strongly suggest that Hopium is not the right forum for discussing the legalese of such extreme scenarios.
Elias, Brian Tyler Cohen and Congressman Jamie Raskin did a zoom last night that precisely addresses your question along with fantastic educational value on electoral processes
Thanks for this. I will note that Harris has stated in interviews that her team and the Democratic Party are prepared for MAGA fuckery. (She didn’t say it precisely like that but you get the point.) That means lots of money and a team of great lawyers ready to go. We’re not talking Alina Habba here. Again, I’d rather be us than them.
Both Johnson and Trump are tight with Christian nationalists. Trump went down to Georgia and had a bunch of ministers bless him a few days ago. Evangelical activist Ralph Reed is running a turnout operation in the battlegrounds that has supposedly contacted 8 million people. That may be their little "secret." Who knows. They're desperate to keep Dobbs in place. We have to keep getting our people to the polls and outvote them.
If the House flips, all Mikey is going to be doing is passing the gavel to Hakeem Jeffries.
Apparently their “secret” isn’t really so secret. We’ve got the best lawyers working on it. The election reform act will make a difference too.
At this point, I would not worry too much about the polls. In all of them, Harris is leading, tied, or down within the margin of error. Turnout is what matters now.
That is an absurd finding. I think it can safely be ignored.
"an electorate that is only currently +2.5 Dem, and 7 points more R than 2020" Can someone help me understand what this means? TIA.
By party affiliation, Democrats are make up 2.5% more voters than Republicans, so far.
However, exit polling is saying of people who cast their votes, Harris-Walz leads by 20 points.
Thus, lots of independents and republicans are casting a lot of votes for VP Harris and Governor Walz.
Again, it’s polling which is fallible, but it’s very encouraging.
Where is the exit poll data source? Is this coming from internal campaign sources?
They’re within many of the large, reputable polls. Like, you have Registered Voters, Likely Voters (however they choose to model that), and confirmed voters who have already cast their ballot (a larger number over the past few elections since we’ve generally opened up the ease of early voting across the nation).
Understood. I just havent seen any data that illustrates casted votes with a 20+ Harris lead. Is that data available somewhere or is that more of an internal source.
Coincidentally, I just posed a similar question in the Comments section.
Is there any breakout of these voters by battleground or by state.
Depends on the poll , state or national, and how transparent the pollster is. But you can take a reputable one and dig into the cross tabs and you can see.
That said, I don’t recommend doing this. The sample error of small groups can be quite high. Then you have other error sources. So again, take it with a grain of salt as a positive indicator and move on.
Ben, Do I understand correctly that you're saying the estimated 20+ point lead for Harris-Walz among the early vote could be way off?
Sure, it could be way off. It could also be spot on. We can’t know right now and that’s why we don’t fret or celebrate over polls.
I believe that we had a +9.5 advantage nationwide in 2020 at this point, which is unsurprising given COVID. Despite this, there is strong evidence that we’re winning by - possibly - large margins, suggesting that there are a lot of R defections to us. Also, the high percentage of women voters is a good sign. Rs also seem to be cannabalizing more of their ED vote than we are.
Craig, could you point us to where this strong evidence is? I agree that the large numbers of women voters is a good sign, but apart from the gender gap, how does one infer whether voters are casting ballots for Harris or Trump?
Most polls of early voters are showing Harris leading 2-1. If the party affiliation of early voters is virtually split evenly among D-R according to Tom Bonier, the only explanation is that a lot of those Rs are voting D. The gender split has been running about 55-44 female as well, which suggests women are driving that 2-1 split.
Now that I can’t postcard any more I plan to phone bank (Harris & Tester) or canvass locally every day. Volunteering to be a Dem poll watcher for EV this weekend. Also may try to help with ballot curing in NV. Working hard is the only thing that will make it possible for me to get to sleep for the next week!
Thx for a great road map of what i too need to do before pivoting to protect our victory Nov 6!
Carolyn, more disaffected Republicans are voting for Harris and the Republicans who were told in 2020 to vote on Election Day by Adolph Hitler Trump are now voting 7% more in the early vote!
Thanks, Mark. But I still don't understand what this means: "an electorate that is only currently +2.5 Dem"
Of people who cast their votes, percentage of democrats - percentage of republicans equals +2.5%.
Schwarzenegger endorses Kamala Harris
"…I will always be an American before I am a Republican. That’s why, this week, I am voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. I’m sharing it with all of you because I think there are a lot of you who feel like I do."
https://nitter.poast.org/Schwarzenegger/status/1851627802027758005#m
Bring it, Arnold! - late but welcome! Way better than Hulk H.
The Governator himself!
Spoken as a true immigrant - 1968 from Austria.
And he released a video after the January 6 assault in which he talked about growing up in a nation traumatized by fascism, like "Hey, MAGA, this is a road you really don't want to go down." The guy's not on our team but he hates Nazis.
Thanks for the reminder. That was a sobering and terrific video.
He's an interesting character. He's on our team for reproductive rights, global climate change, defending democracy abroad, freedom of (or FROM) religion, and respecting science. But he is mostly in favor of deregulation and contraction of the welfare state. He's a very Nixon-esque Republican, without the corruption and racism. He seems to be thoughtful, if not always correct, about his positions.
I bet he could have won the presidency if his foreign birth didn’t preclude that.
Certainly possible. From what I understand (I didn't live in CA at the time), he started out his governorship like a bull in a china shop. He took an immediately combative and adversarial stance with the Dems in the state legislature. However, he learned a lot from those battles, and eventually became a decent leader. He was willing to grow during his time in office. That says a lot.
As a Californian, I most likely wouldn't vote for him.
As a native Californian I might. Depending on the opposition. Gray Davis was no treat to me. In many ways Arnold and Jerry Brown are much alike.
Our team is all who support liberty and oppose fascism. Democracy is not an exclusive club for Democrats.
Fair point, it was a poor choice of words.
Awesome. This may be the second time Arnold helps defeat a Predator! :-)
Yup, defeat a Predator – who happens to be the offspring of an Alien (grandpa Friedrich Trump).
Great job Arnold! I hope more prominent people your courage.
I look at the massive disconnect between the polling averages (close, close!) and the early voting performance to date (we're up by 20+ points in an electorate that is "only currently +2.5 Dem, and 7 points more R than 2020"), and I can only come to one conclusion. We are witnessing a massive case of political-party infidelity. Throughout the country and especially in the battleground states, Republicans are having polling-booth trysts with Kamala and Tim without saying boo about it to friends and family.
ETA: Republican pollster Bill McInturff said a few weeks ago that if we Dems have a lead in the mid-20s by the time Election Day rolls around, the Republicans won't be able to catch up. I assume he was using a 2020 baseline, which puts us at his number and perhaps well above.
This mass outbreak of infidelity is why we're gonna win this election.
I also think the independents are voting for Harris in large numbers!
Precisely.
Carl, thanks for your great analyses. If you have time to quickly explain --how can one extrapolate, by the EV # -- that Republicans are defecting to such a great degree, when all we know is party registration and gender? Also -- "they cannot catch up" -- how do we know how that translates to the EC, especially PA, NC. How likely that we could be "up 20" and still lose PA? Thanks!
In haste: If we're plus 3 in voter registration and plus 25 in voting, that differential can only come from a combination of indies and defecting R's. If we take the tally at 47-44-9 and give 6% to indies and 46% to us, and if we're up by 22 overall, the remaining 9% has to come from defecting Rs. That puts them at roughly 35--9, which means a defection rate of about 21%.
To your second question, I will confess to some perplexity about PA, especially the polling. PA usually runs in tandem with Wisconsin and Michigan. I also assume that the blue wall states will outperform the Sun Belt battlegrounds by a bit, and polls of actual voters have had us in a healthy lead in those three states. For all these reasons, I cannot help but be optimistic about PA. When there is a political wave, it sweeps over everything.
I prefer to think of it as fidelity to America, preserving our democracy. It is a political movement.
It makes me a moral relativist. Sometimes infidelity can be a good thing!
Almost lost a keyboard on "polling booth trysts"
I still wonder whether Gen Z who have no voting history are "unlikely" voters, not included in RV or LV by pollsters?
READER ENGAGEMENT
1. Uncle Sam needs us! https://www.mobilize.us/
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans; organizations, historical sites.
3. The Democratic Party has databases that track w3. ho is registered and who has voted, so calling and canvassing should be limited to registered voters yet to vote in most states.
4. In some states. NC, MI, WI, MT, NV registrations remain open and FT 6 is still registering new Democrats. BYOP, free, is texting into MI, NC, NV, WI as I type...https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Tomorrow FT 6 TextArcades will be texting 1400 for each $25 contribution. The recipients are not in voter databases so they don't get many political texts. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24
FT 6 also has mass texting on Saturday. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
It also has a ballot curing website. https://www.fieldteam6.org/ballot-curing
Besides FT 6 I also text and call in other venues. E.G. I am texting into Pa today with Vorteriders via mobilize. https://www.mobilize.us/voteriders/
Swifties for Kamala also have texting and phone banking, with training provided.
Also Movement Labs, Leaders We Deserve, the David Hogg organization and others. I am am member of our local DEC, which has thousands of volunteers.
you are doing amazing work. thank you!!!
Voter registration is invaluable right now!!! Thank you. Some of the ballot curing opportunities that FT 6 offers are in-person, canvassing so click on the links because if you live in a swing state there is a whole lot of need for in-person, door to door canvassing. Lots of elderly people need help getting ballots cured (i.e. Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina).
Did my first round of BYOP texting yesterday with FT6. Waiting on my google voice limit to reset, and I'll be back at it!
Thank you, Brady!!!
I'm very grateful for all the motivation and education I have received here. When I get "anxious" I remember all of the Republicans for Harris all over the country, many actively canvassing, phone banking, and donating to the Harris-Walz campaign. I think about Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, and Olivia Troye traveling all over on behalf of VP Harris. I also think about the over 700 National Security and Defense Officials who have endorsed VP Harris, many of whom are actively canvassing and phone banking for her. I think about our amazing ground game, all of the rallies, all the appearances on national TV. The fundraising is amazing and being well spent. These rallies and all this travel are very expensive. There is all the surrogate travel also. AOC and Bernie are fabulous surrogates, as are President Obama and Michelle Obama. I think of all the attorneys (such as Marc Elias and Elias Law Group) winning case after case against frivolous maga election lawsuits. Can we watch this evening's video tomorrow?
Thanks for the summary Linda. It sounds like a "permission structure" to me. Republicans for Harris will turn a close race into a victory more commanding for the blue team and American democracy
And let’s not forget a well earned round of applause to former Tea party himself Joe Walsh. Watch his Social Contract often. He has been traveling the country for Kamala.
I'm telling you what - Joe Walsh has won me over.
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES (new update)
(UPDATE, 9pm) Today, Arizona, surpassed 50% of their total 2020 turnout, thus joining Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Montana, Tennessee, South Dakota and New Mexico in reaching this milestone. Meanwhile, Georgia continues to up its game, soon approaching an astonishing 70% of their total vote in the 2020 election, while North Carolina and Tennessee are over 60%.
All in all, more than 59 million people have already voted. Over 31 million people have voted Early In-Person, while almost 28 million Mail Ballots have been returned.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for seven swing states plus Florida and Texas:
GA 69.3% 3,481,876<
NC 60.7% 3,367,548*
TX 59.1% 6,704,936
NV 56.1% 789,960
FL 55.8% 6,220,645*<
AZ 53.4% 1,826,892<
MI 39.4% 2,197,885
WI 33.5% 1,109,037
PA 22.2% 1,547,486
*) States that report party registration.
<) Updated now.
Other key states; MT/OH/NE are included because of vital Senate races:
MT 51.1% 312,814
VA 37.4% 1,692,388
OH 32.7% 1,952,112<
NE 27.7% 267,699
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
<) Updated now.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
It seems Pennsylvania's firewall is creeping up on 400,000.
With so many D’s specifically stating they are voting ED 400K is a really good start.
Agreed – although for the first time it actually decreased by 1,739 votes.
As a reminder, 155 million people voted in 2020. My back of the envelope calculations figure that 165 million people will vote in 2024. In 2020, 10 million more women voted than men. (My numbers are from US Census web page analysis of the vote). If the gender gap remains high, I believe we'll win big.
Penetration by women and Gen Z.
You keep including VA in your supplemental list-why is that?
I have included Virginia, Florida and Texas – three states that might be vulnerable in an extreme Blue Wave or Red Wave election. Although that is seen as unlikely.
Thanks-are you saying Kaine is more vulnerable than other Senators given "an extreme red wave election?" Why are/have you been singling out Virginia? Seems never to have been a concern here with Simon? Just wondering if you are privy to some factual basis for your concern?
Not privy to any other information. And, no, I’m not concerned about VA.
These early vote totals are wild. Looking like it’s going to be a record setting turnout.
Thank you for the daily update! Always appreciated.
Early vote analysis cannot simply be R vs D. I’m hoping, actually assuming that Indy’s will break more for D’s than R’s and I believe there will be many more R defections to Harris (Haley type voters) than D’s to Trump. The math is with D’s as long as they turn out and I think they will.
Any idea 2020 vs 2024 at a similar time in number days to election where these numbers were.
2020 was a pandemic year, with many people exercising caution and voting early, so it is not comparable to 2024.
That said, Tom Bonier’s TargetEarly (TargetSmart) allows you to make these and other comparisons comparisons. Check out the dashboard, with lots of pull-down choices on the right.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com
Last night's speech was spectacular, especially from a visual standpoint. In many ways, it reminded me of President Obama's appearance in Grant Park after he won the 2008 election. The big stage, the huge crowd, even the small flags that people were waving. Kudos to a campaign team that knows what they are doing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR-sn2vzmFQ
Great speech, setting, and crowd. Feels like a strong closing argument even ignoring DJT’s being a hate rally.
Your link to register for this evening does not take me to the place to register. Please try again
This is the link. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_FZEWO5anQJ-HGjhWHwQzFg?amp_device_id=853e3ccc-eba5-470b-9500-3eece89a6e12&_device_id=853e3ccc-eba5-470b-9500-3eece89a6e12&_gl=1*wafmjg*_gcl_au*MTY2NzI4MTg4OC4xNzI4ODM0NTc4*_ga*MjcwNTUwODE0LjE2OTQzMDE5MjQ.*_ga_L8TBF28DDX*MTczMDA3NDIwOC40NTQuMS4xNzMwMDc0MzU3LjAuMC4w&_ga=2.142246587.800174423.1730074208-270550814.1694301924#/registration
It was posted here https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/wed-645pm-et-new-time-hopium-home?utm_source=publication-search
Me too. But caught on YouTube later in the evening.
When I watched VP Harris last night speaking in front of the White House, I saw a soon-to-be president. Her line about all of us deciding who walks through those doors in 90 days really brought the stakes of this election home. Are we going to allow a guy to enter the White House carrying an enemies list? Or are we going to send a joyful warrior holding her to-do list? Powerful stuff.
Also, I'm more grateful than I can say to Kamala Harris for reclaiming the Ellipse for decent, patriotic Americans. We've got this! Now, let's go win it!
I feel - again, my feelings based on what I've been watching and reading (certainly not from the legacy media) - that we're going to blow this out. So many GOPer voters are coming out loud and proud for Kalama and as one of the Bulwark's recent podcasts said, we have a coalition from Bernie and AOC to the Cheneys! There are also so many GOPer voting groups against Trump as well and I think the early GOPer voting is for Harris/Walz and even down ballot Dems, again, based on what I've been watching and reading on Independent and GOPer pods on YouTube as well as on people's comments in the political subreddits I read.
I'm feeling really good about next Wednesday being historic and will be staying up all night to watch the returns not only for the national election but for my state's elections as well. VoteBlueNoMatterWho2024💙💙💙
I read the transcript of the speech last night and watched it this morning. She looks so presidential and a stark contrast to January 6 and Trump's Sunday hate rally. Let's finish strong!
Hopium Fam, I’ve heard some concerns regarding President Biden’ ‘garbage’ comment he made last evening. I am here to advise you all….don’t fret! Number one, it is NOT getting the kind of media attention one fears it normally would. Number two…it does NOT have the same impact as Hilary publicly calling them deplorable. Remember, most have their minds made up and the only one gaining votes is Harris while 45 is turning them away by the day.
Biden’s comment behind the scenes won’t move the needle as much as the MSG rally rhetoric specifically about Puerto Ricans. Also, Harris’ speech last night was far too palpable to forget especially, for the independent/moderate voters. I think the majority of that necessary voting block knows by now they’re voting for Harris and NOT Biden. Most independent/moderate voters whom are breaking our way according to the data, likely think the way Biden does to one degree or other anyway. In these final hours…his comment isn’t going to be a straw that draws all these people back to 45 all of the sudden. We shouldn’t give this much breathing room as it’s equivalent to doom scrolling. Keep the faith.
I suspect the only people who will be moved the president's gaffe are the perpetually-offended, i.e., MAGA who were always going to vote for Trump anyway. Outrage is their oxygen, but it won't move the needle. They're trying to distract from Trump wearing the 'floating island of garbage' anchor around his neck.
Plus, Biden has always been a gaffe machine. It has never mattered much in the past, and it's not going to matter now, when he's not the candidate.
I see nothing wrong with the President's comment (although I get why VP Harris has to distance herself). He just said what most of us were thinking. Probably not the best time to say it, though. Could have worded it differently.
No. Biden’s comment won’t matter and was intended to refer to the speakers at MSG, but from the bottom of my heart I reject objectifying Trump voters as garbage, deplorable, unpatriotic or deserving of hatred or disdain. A few are beyond the pale, but not most. They are our fellow citizens. Remember that. It is hard to hold onto this when we see so much MAGA intransigence, stupidity and hate, but returning hate to hate destroys all possibility of reconciliation. We are one nation, indivisible. If not, why are we here, fighting this good fight?
Listen to Kamala: “There is so much more that unites us than divides us.”
100%. Plus the working class Puerto Rican voters who are pissed off will never see anything about any of this tempest in a teapot and if they did they would probably think “thanks President Biden.” It’s a disgusting story because it shows the rightward orientation of the political press (and how they are owned by right wing talking points) but they also don’t matter. It’s an after the election problem to solve.
You know the press loved it because that is the campaign they wanted to cover. One reporter even tweeted out “Damage control from the Biden campaign” or something close to that. Freudian slip
Performer at a Trump rally calls a Commonwealth of the U.S. "floating garbage"
Trump says if Kamala is elected, the entire country will "be like Detroit"
Trump calls Democrats enemies of the state
Trump says he'll use the military to suppress opposition
Media response to all of the above, "Meh."
Biden slips, immediately corrects himself, and sends out a tweet explaining the slip.
Media response, "Major mistake by Biden at the worst time in the campaign. Will Harris recover from Biden's horrible blunder? Biden calls all Trump supporters "garbage", reneging on his pledge to bring the country together. Biden engages in inflammatory language against Trump supporters."
This sh*t just can't go on if America is to survive and thrive as a deliberative democracy.
Gaffe's are par for the course with Uncle Joe
Here’s the definition of a gaffe: It is telling the truth at an inconvenient time. That is exactly what Biden did yesterday. And millions of Puerto Rican Americans probably stood up and cheered. As should we. The garbage wasn’t only the filth coming from that guy’s mouth. It was the audience devouring that garbage.
Biden's comment won't cost Harris a vote. Nobody cares. He's not running for President. Over 52 million votes have already been cast. It'll be forgotten by Friday.
Blake, I want to believe that you are not a troll, but the amount of negative stuff you bring in here has become tiresome and deeply unwelcome.
I’m so sorry, I didn’t even think that was negative. I was trying to stay ahead of the curb cuz I had anticipated there may be some who would express concern over that gaffe. I am most certainly not a troll. I literally brag about you and Hopium to my family on a daily basis actually to the point in which they’ve told me…‘enough!’ 😂 🤦♂️
You and Hopium have been a huge source of optimism and extraordinary data for me over this period. Please don’t end my subscription, I truly love this community and value your leadership, knowledge, and information. I must really need to look inward I guess because though I’ve always known I can be neurotic, I never realized how negative my commentary has morphed. You must remember in the beginning the array of optimistic commentary I would post right? Just last night, I posted about the incredible speech Harris gave.
Please know I have not lost faith and that I do believe in my gut we will win and big. Like you (except obv you’ve known Harris for years), I’ve long had instincts about her trajectory. I remember specifically bragging to mu family and friends five years ago when she was in the senate that she had an X factor and was one to keep an eye on and always felt if anyone could and would become the first female president, it would be her. The election is in a week and I recognize my anxiety and I’m deeply sorry if it has projected through the community page.
I just want you to know whatever anxiety I have does not outweigh my optimism and gut instincts about this election when all set and done. I’m a relentless champion of Harris and I have full faith in the results and in the system following against any and all concerns. I am planning to make calls this week from Maryland to voters in PA and will proudly keep the community posted if/when I can on that behalf. Please forgive my misguided messages and hopefully you can gleam from the vast majority of messages I’ve written over the course of the year, my cautious optimism and love for Harris and our democracy.
Anything BUT a troll here. I’m a proud tries and true Jewish, Gay, Democrat who loves this country and anyone no matter which side…who is pro Democracy and recognizes the threat 45 is. You, Hopium, Lincoln Project, Allan Lichtman, Brian Tyler Cohen, Mark Elias, Lawrence O’Donnell, Heather Cox Richardson, and many more have been the greatest source of info and inspiration for me, I swear! Love this community! I’ll leave it all at that.
I didn't detect a single bit of negativity in your comment. I'm glad you posted it.
Listen to Simon. He is our Leader, Source of Hope.
I appreciate the sentiment but Ms. Potter's comment below has merit as well. This is Simon's wheelhouse and it is on me to look inward in these final days and recognize where I can be of more value with both my commentary here in the community and my messaging outside the community as well as, where I am or have been unhelpful. I trust Simon knows my intentions are well meaning. Doesn't matter when all set and done. The bottom line is -- his overarching message is correct -- DMWL about ALL of it and what's most important right now, is to focus on the data, the drive, and the positivity. The rest is just noise and unfortunately, my typical cautiously optimistic self -- fell for the noise. Lesson learned! Kamala is not just a better candidate, she is THE candidate!!! I've felt that since she was in the Senate. I believe in manifest destiny. The energy all around is female and male alliance. This is our time and we are NOT going back! Let's win this damn thing!
That's a good refocus, Blake. Kudos. --Dr. Potter
We're all on the same team. I got a bit negative myself yesterday, but trying to cull it back today. It happens. We're anxious about who's going to win. Totally understandable. That's why it's good to take that energy and use it for action, like Simon suggests. DMWL. We are winning but haven't won yet!
Can't speak about Blake's overall output. But I did not see his comment today as negative.
I can’t comment on other posts but this one of Blake’s didn’t bother me — besides, perhaps, being overlong.
DMWL -- That is the Hopium way. There is too much good news to focus on anything negative.
“So let’s get a couple things straight before this nonsense goes any further. When Biden used the word “garbage,” he was referring to the demonization of Latinos that we saw from Trump’s unhinged hate rally on Sunday.
The Press is lying about what the President actually said. Here is his quote, verbatim: “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters—his—his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/dworkin/p/no-corporate-media-this-isnt-the?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Supporter's with an apostrophe. One supporter. Kill Tony or whatever his name is.
Agreed Joe is a very prideful man for his country. As well he should be he’s a patriot.
Entirely unproblematic – if you correctly place the apostrophe:
“The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporter’s — his — his — his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American.”
Let’s move on from this distraction, please!