This fact-checking thing just doesn't matter. Not even a little. It wasn't the moderators who defeated Trump in the last debate, it was Kamala Harris. Walz just needs to ignore everything coming out of Vance's mouth and do only two things: 1. Keep pointing out what a spineless, pregnancy-monitoring, neo-monarchist, couch-fucking, Catholic integralist Silicon Valley weirdo Jeffrey Dahmer Vance is, and 2. Repeatedly say that Kamala will cut taxes for everyone making less than $400k a year, cap the cost of prescription drugs for everyone, and restore reproductive rights. There are only two things anyone remembered after the last vice presidential debate: The fly landing on Mike Pence's head, and Kamala's "I'm speaking" line. Man, remember when Trump tried to land a joke by pulling out that line at the last debate? It landed... with a clunk. Say what you will about him, Trump did used to have a way of using infantile humor to throw off his opponent's debate game. Now his irregularly beating heart is barely able to pump blood through his hardened arteries and he's lost it.
You have to watch two different streams and nothing stops Vance from lying with impunity. So JD gets to make his crazy right wing soundbites, and many people will never hear the truth.
Or they could just integrate that fact checking into the production and let the moderators do more than just read prepared questions.
Also, how much are they really going to do. Past experience says they'll be severely limited by (a) their need for access (the value-add they've all swapped in because corporate doesn't want to pay for investigative journalism) (b) the "Republicans watch TV, too" admonition from corporate (c) 8+ years of working the refs by Trump and the GOP.
Example: CNN called out 30 lies by Trump in the Trump-Biden debate. Independent counts by non-profits ranged from 300-600+
If viewers think everything that's *not* fact-checked is accurate, what CBS is doing might be worse than useless (though, yeah, stuff that's incendiary enough to provoke violence like "they're eating the dogs" and "Democrats support 9 month post-birth abortions" should be called out regardless)
I am hoping that Simon has a way to scroll smart remarks during the debate tonight like we had for the last debate. That would be the most entertaining fact check for those of us with good political BS meters.
I am quite optimistic about tonight’s debate. I was encouraged to read that Pete Buttigieg was helping prepare; Buttigieg is one of the country’s best political communicators. Yes, I realize Walz has described himself as a poor debater, and that some people expect Vance to win.
I expect Tim Walz will come armed with memorable, devastating one-liners. If he keeps his head cool, he’ll ridicule Vance’s "weirdness", and he’ll glue Vance-Trump to Project 2025. He’ll emphasize how undemocratic and damaging Project 2025 would be for America.
Equally devastating, Walz may highlight some of Vance’s most absurd lies. "They’re eating your pets!"
Even more devastating, I’m hoping Walz quotes the "old" JD Vance comparing Donald Trump to Hitler.
On a positive note, Walz can talk about his own record in Minnesota, presenting the great progressive policies he implemented as "good common sense". He can underscore the results. And he can talk credibly about the Harris-Walz proposals for "an opportunity economy".
PS. On the downside, it looks like CBS and its moderators are absolving themselves of any responsibility for fact-checking. However, a skillful moderator can anchor their questions in a facts-confirming reality!
I love watching Tim Walz's rallies. They are really motivational. He can get sarcastic and call out Vance's lies at the rallies. Tim is very animated. Vance will just sulk in his corner. I trust Tim to knock out Vance. Tim will do his own fact checking - He has everything stored in his very healthy brain. But I can't watch it. I need to sleep well.
I would approve i they put those fact-checks were shown as subtitles or chyrons as part of the actual debate transmission. Otherwise only the most intrepid truth-seekers and election nerds like us are ever going to see them.
Alternatively, and at the very least, a good pro fact-checker should be the featured voice on the pundit discussion immediately following the debate!
More layoff numbers are in and the Biden-Harris admin has seen 31.8 million fewer layoffs than Donald Trump in equivalent point so their administration.
Thank you for the news on last night’s Tester–Sheehy debate in Montana. So glad to hear that Senator Jon Tester did well. Any links to reviews and evaluations of this debate? I haven’t found them yet.
OK, now I'm psyched. I'm an ancient Gator who hasn't been to a football stadium in a very long time. It's all coming back to me thanks to your awesome handiwork. LFG!!!!!!
As to Pa, the vote vets bus will meet Trump in Butler. We're hoping we can flip veterans, military families, and other groups like Polish Americans and Ukrainian Americans. All of the media outlets especially the Pgh Post Gazette, Pgh Tribune, KDKA, and local papers like Butler Eagle, Beaver County Times, New Castle News, Sharon Herald, etc are pro Trump. Fetterman will be in Butler, also. If Pa is really the Keystone State, we can win by reducing Trump support in counties he won heavily in 2020.
I just love how much this community is doing to help make this election what we want it to be. I have been volunteering full time in the Charlotte campaign office for the last week and there is so much energy and good work being done. It really inspires me to work as hard as possible for these last 5 weeks of the Election Season. I am going to go back home to MN knowing I did all I could do.
If you have the time or the inclination to help here in North Carolina, here is a link to in-person and virtual events (canvassing/phone banking). As you all know, you can phone bank from anywhere! Or you can come join me for a weekend canvassing here in the Charlotte area!
Thank you so much, Tim! Feeling love for NC--in this time of great sadness in the state for our mountain brothers and sisters--is a balm. We can get this together!
I’m a PA resident who thinks we should vote in person this year to minimize Trump efforts to claim the state based on Election Day in person numbers. Our courts have ruled that any mail in ballot with a missing or incorrect date outside must be discarded. Also, by law they cannot begin processing mail in ballots until election night, which delays results significantly. Simon, if you have a chance, I would appreciate your thoughts.
Ginny, as long as Pennsylvania still has flu season, snowstorms and "Nor'easter" flooding in November, you can never count on getting to the polls on Election Day. Please watch Simon's video on Voting on Day One (above) and you will see why early voting is critical to win in 2024. Please check your county to see if they are sending out mail ballots, and get one. and bank that vote!
Do you have drop boxes in government centers? That might be an alternative to suggest to those reluctant to cast ballots by mail. I am so thankful that in California I get an email says when my ballot was received and when it got counted.
Simon is spot on (again) regarding Hispanic voters. Take Texas, for example. Houston (Harris County) is home for more Latinos than any other Texas county. Biden did a tad better there in 2020 than did Hilary in 2016.
El Paso is 85 percent Hispanic. Biden did a tad better there than Clinton 4 years earlier.
Hispanics are not breaking for GOPers in significant numbers. And demographics matter when it comes to politics.
Take California, for example. It’s a deep blue state. But….starting with Gov. Earl Warren in the 1940s to the present, California has had more GOP governors than Dems.
What?
Here’s the easy explanation:
In 1970, “whites” made up 76 percent of the California population v. 14 percent/Hispanic. Today, Hispanics make up 40 percent of the California population, while “whites” have plunged down to 34 percent.
The changing demographics have shifted the state’s politics.
Interesting about blue CA electing GOP governors. Blue MA, my home state, does likewise but for apparently different reasons: The Dems have a supermajority in both houses of the state legislature, but the House in particular is seriously screwed up. Among state legislatures, it scores near the bottom on transparency and accountability, it concentrates power at the top (which means legislators have to "go along to get along," and if they don't, they lose perks), and it has no in-house research bureau, so legislators have to either do their own research on issues or depend on well-funded lobbyists to do it for them.
It took MAGA a while to take over the state GOP, but they've done it. Republican governor Charlie Baker served two terms and elected not to run again in 2022. Quite possibly he thought two terms was enough, but there was also speculation that he might not have survived the GOP primary.
I seem to recall Governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts being a very good guy. While it didn’t receive much attention, he also ran against Trump for the 2020 Republican Presidential Nomination.
He did indeed. He ended his campaign in IIRC March of 2020, realizing that he couldn't get to the top. Before that, in 2016, he ran as VP on the Libertarian ticket. Which says to me that he saw what was coming before it arrived. Strange but true, Mitt Romney was an OK governor of MA. (I know, I know: if you don't pay close attention, it's hard to believe that a former governor of MA is currently a U.S. senator from Utah, or that his father, George, was a governor of Michigan in the '60s.)
Wasn’t the ACA (Obamacare) based on proposals from the Heritage Foundation, as well as the "Romneycare" that Mitt signed into law as Governor of Massachusetts? Mitt’s tragedy, of course, is that he couldn’t take credit for this given the dark reactionary currents that were already dominant in the Republican Party.
It's also worth remembering that, hard as it is to believe, "Romneycare" was based on a proposal dreamed up by the Heritage Foundation -- the very same outfit that's behind Project 2025. "What's in a name?" you ask. More than meets the eye, sez I. Times change. Today's GOP is not the GOP of my youth, and neither is the Heritage Foundation. But that does help explain some of Commonwealth Care's and then Obamacare's drawbacks: They give too much power to private insurance interests. (See critiques of Medicare Advantage for more info.)
Some of these state-level elections also have more to do with a reaction to the previous state-level office holders (whether they did well or poorly) than national trends. When I was a kid the Dem governor of CA got recalled we ended up with Arnold Schwartenegger replacing him with well under 50% of the vote. Sounded ripe for embarrassment, but he turned out to be... fine? He really wanted the job, took it seriously, and nothing went wrong. He was popularly reelected and after that we went back to 20-point Dem landslides for Brown and Newsom. Newsom and "The Governator" actually appeared together this year to jointly support a ballot measure for limits on oil drilling.
That's true in some places, but not, I think, in MA. In MA there's been tension for decades between socially and economically liberal Democrats (often in the suburbs) and economically liberal but socially conservative Democrats (often working-class urban dwellers often of Irish and/or Italian background). Most leaders of the anti-school-busing movement of the '60s and '70s were urban Democrats. Democratic leadership at the statehouse often comes from this background -- or has to make peace with those who do. Republicans in the suburbs tended to be more socially liberal (e.g., on race, sex, sexuality, etc.) than many urban Democrats.
Over 50% of the population in NM identifies as Hispanic or Latino. 43.5 % of all voters are registered Democrats, 31.1 % Republican, 23.3% "declined to state" akin to independent voters. Here's our voting history https://www.270towin.com/states/New_Mexico
We have tons of Democrats (including many women) leading our state: Governor, Secretary of State, entire Congressional Delegation, Attorney General, Auditor, State Treasurer, Land Commissioner, majority in the state house and senate, all of the judges on the ballot in our largest county (Bernalillo), although most judges' elections are nonpartisan.
Should we describe New Mexico as “bluish purple”? I know Dems hold all statewide offices today; GOPers haven’t carried New Mexico at the presidential level since Bush41 in 1988.
I suppose, although the urban areas like Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Las Cruces are very blue while rural areas are more red. 47.4% of New Mexico is publicly-owned land. ~ 10% of the land is Pueblos, Tribes or Nations. https://www.newmexico.org/native-culture/native-communities/
This is incorrect. Bush Jr. won NM in '04, and only lost it in '00 by a few hundred votes.
Nowadays, it is not purple at all. It is a solid blue state. Biden won by double digits, every Senator and House member is a Dem, all major statewide officials are Dems, and the legislature is solidly Dem as well.
Thank you, Simon! Wondering if you or any community members have any thoughts about Elissa Slotkin’s reported comments about Michigan polling at a donor event/fundraiser? I’m guessing it was a pitch for more donations, but I had some friends ask me about it.
Thom Hartmann said her internal polling found Harris "underwater." I have heard nothing else about this, from anyone. Candidates often catastrophize when looking for donations; I got one from Brown in OH saying he is losing; well it was a Ras poll, and an outlier.
Agree that they are using certain polls for donations. But I also see many Democrats not wanting to get into a (wasted energy) public fight about how accurate the polls are. We have the agency to get the results we want. We have the GOTV apparatus that Howard Dean dreamed of all those years ago. My personal belief is that some pollsters are going to break for Harris at the last minute to look like they were right all along. Time will tell if I'm right. I guess it doesn't matter because we have to do the work regardless of polling.
Well said, all of it. And this is precisely what right-wing pollsters do every time: they release more-honest polls just before the election. And unfortunately, their reputation is later judged only by how accurate that last poll was. Never mind that all that transpired before that was fundamentally dishonest and primarily designed to influence the news narrative!
Well, the affront to accurate math is personal for me. I was an engineer who later got a math degree. I spent my career making mathematical models of how systems would work over time. I was actually quite good at it. From my perspective, polling is not predictive. It does tell you relative importance of issues. It also tells you if you're getting better or worse. Not who votes.
Hear, hear! I did a double major in Studio Art and Mathematics. I fondly remember my favorite math professor, Sherman K. Stein, who wrote one of the textbooks we used. I can heartily recommend another book he wrote, "Mathematics: The Man-made Universe".
On another note, I recall a wonderful story about Norbert Wiener, the father of cybernetics, but you’ve probably heard it...
Sorry, Norbert does not ring a bell. I do know some Paul Erdos stories--he was famous for reviewing everyone's papers prior to publication. Erdos said that a mathematician is a device for turning coffee into theorems.
i did actually see an article on Salon recently that asked if math was real....since I am math challenged I wanted to read it, but it was too obtuse for this reader....
Thom Hartman is not someone anyone should be listening to on this matter, or any other matter, except if you are Thom Hartmann's therapist. He is a pot-stirring shock jock with no professional political experience. He's the socialist mirror-image Limbaugh, just without the overt hatemongering. I get that people might like him on a personality level, but as a source of intel? Yikes!
He has nothing at all in common with Limbaugh. That's a low blow and inaccurate. If anything I respect him a lot more than I used to. A shock jock he is not.
It's amazing how the Democratic reflex is ALWAYS toward doubt and anxiety, even when there are, like, five different obvious reasons to disregard whatever is making you doubtful. In this *particular* case...
1) Slotkin made this comment weeks ago. Someone just didn't leak it until now. So... no longer relevant.
2) She was at a fundraiser. The last time someone wasn't "trailing" or "falling behind" while fundraising was never.
3) She didn't say "losing," she cleverly said "underwater." This could mean behind in votes, but it could also mean negative net approval, or net unpopularity of issue stances, or behind in comparison to previous benchmarks.
4) Internal polls aren't magic secret oracles that are necessarily better than public polling. Being 1 point behind in an internal poll doesn't mean public polls showing you average 2 points ahead are wrong. Both results say it's too close to call, and keep working.
Well maybe Hartmann, with his big microphone, should not have been droning on about it so much....but you're the first one to discuss it at length than I've seen. And, you are going to see doubt and anxiety. There are reasons for this; the country has had one trauma after another since 2000. There is a collective PTSD. It's not going away. trump still being around and most of us in daily contact with his supporters is very draining on the psyche. An encounter with one of these people can ruin your mood for days. I have taken to wearing visible ear buds in public so as not to engage with these people at the deli counter or on the grocery lines.
I hear ya Fisher. I'm very good at finding things to worry about. Some people sound way too alarmist, and there may be. an audience for that - I think they're demoralizing to others. Against my better judgement, I've gone into many a comment threads, and consumed the wrong content. When in doubt, I tune it out. As for my everyday life, yeah I've taken to wearing earbuds most places as well. I'm afraid what I'll overhear, at least for now. Hell there are co-workers whose politics I intentionally remain in the dark about because I'm afraid to know.
Yep. Bingo. I’m presently trying to talk down a friend who’s normally pretty politically astute but is all wrapped up in swing states averages. I’ve tried to explain the rightwing narrative polling but he thinks I’m “unskewing” and is really worried. It’s still amazing how much 2016 broke a lot of people’s brains.
Yes, but people like Robert Reich and Michael Podhorzer are also calling it razor thin, so it's not just a bunch of "nervous nellies." Let's not get into pie fights here; an assertion was made on Thom Hartmann's show, it was also discussed on Dkos, and i sought more clarity. Luckily someone here provided it. Let's all move on to the debate tonight.
I created a FaceBook post comparing my first- hand experiences of attending the Harris/Walz rally in MI in August and the Trump Town Hall in Warren MI last Friday. If anyone wants to read it (and please feel welcome to post it on your own FB account). My account is Patty Merlo (Patricia Ciloski). Thank you everyone for giving me hope!
Great news about Senator Tester, he is one of my favorite people! I don't understand why Montanians wouldn't want him to continue to represent them as their Senator especially farmers and veterans! It is such good news to see we have almost raised $100,000 through Hopium, I was glad to contribute!! Thank you everyone!!
Me too with Tester. Sheehy - oh he's a handsome guy, got the military citations and handpicked by R's to unseat an outstanding and productive Senator. In the debate, Sheehy repeated rehearsed lines (high housing costs cuz immigrants!). Tester is the commonsense and down to earth guy who ain't gonna bullshit you and understands what you need. I wish I could vote in Montana.
I do hope the Tester Campaign can inspire and mobilize 100 % of Montana’s Native American community, to whom Sheehy refuses to apologize, to cast their ballots in this election!
Love the Carly Leech ad! Taking back the high ground on religion and character. I'm curious @Simon or others: do we believe this "Walz is nervous" narrative or is it possible it's floating low expectations to mess with Vance's and Trump's minds? I find it hard to believe he's not a good debater, as he's certainly a good thinker and politician.
Just a quick note re: the AtlasIntel polls which favoured Trump a few days ago. David Trotter on 'Voting Trend' did an excellent analysis of their work. Their methods raise red flags and they found Trump leading Harris with women and Harris leading Trump with men!! As he put it, it's the worst poll he's seen - "garbage". It is of course included in the polling aggregators figures. All commentators seem to agree - Trump has a chance of winning if Democrats don't get out and vote - and no chance if Democrats get their voters out! Thanks to everyone here for working to maximise the vote.
Since trump is too chicken (and unwell) to debate again, could Vice President Harris invite Vance to a debate? Vance is probably too chicken to face a Strong Black/South Asian Woman. However, could the major networks (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC) have special Sunday morning programs (before football begins) covering Project 2025 in the most important election of our lifetime? I feel it's their patriotic duty to schedule these programs since NY Times and WaPo are failing us.
Can’t bring myself to watch JD Vance lie all night with no fact checking. So I’ll be phone banking instead.
Love seeing the good news in the polling and hats off to everyone who’s helping make it happen.
Olbernann says CBS should cancel -- Vance is a liar who fabricated the Springfield BS story and endangers lives.
Truth be told, I get rather tired of Keith Olbermann. He articulately raises concerns and anxieties, but Olbermann rarely fleshes out real solutions.
NONE of the talking heads on TV have any solutions. All they have is criticisms.
This fact-checking thing just doesn't matter. Not even a little. It wasn't the moderators who defeated Trump in the last debate, it was Kamala Harris. Walz just needs to ignore everything coming out of Vance's mouth and do only two things: 1. Keep pointing out what a spineless, pregnancy-monitoring, neo-monarchist, couch-fucking, Catholic integralist Silicon Valley weirdo Jeffrey Dahmer Vance is, and 2. Repeatedly say that Kamala will cut taxes for everyone making less than $400k a year, cap the cost of prescription drugs for everyone, and restore reproductive rights. There are only two things anyone remembered after the last vice presidential debate: The fly landing on Mike Pence's head, and Kamala's "I'm speaking" line. Man, remember when Trump tried to land a joke by pulling out that line at the last debate? It landed... with a clunk. Say what you will about him, Trump did used to have a way of using infantile humor to throw off his opponent's debate game. Now his irregularly beating heart is barely able to pump blood through his hardened arteries and he's lost it.
There will be real time fact-checking by CBS online, including about 20 CBS journalists. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/business/media/cbs-vice-presidential-debate-fact-check-qr.html?unlocked_article_code=1.O04.BOte.f6lKEPSz4Amn&smid=url-share
Which is really poorly done.
You have to watch two different streams and nothing stops Vance from lying with impunity. So JD gets to make his crazy right wing soundbites, and many people will never hear the truth.
Or they could just integrate that fact checking into the production and let the moderators do more than just read prepared questions.
Yes, it sucks, but so do all those who are listening and can't differentiate between truth and lies.
Also, how much are they really going to do. Past experience says they'll be severely limited by (a) their need for access (the value-add they've all swapped in because corporate doesn't want to pay for investigative journalism) (b) the "Republicans watch TV, too" admonition from corporate (c) 8+ years of working the refs by Trump and the GOP.
Example: CNN called out 30 lies by Trump in the Trump-Biden debate. Independent counts by non-profits ranged from 300-600+
If viewers think everything that's *not* fact-checked is accurate, what CBS is doing might be worse than useless (though, yeah, stuff that's incendiary enough to provoke violence like "they're eating the dogs" and "Democrats support 9 month post-birth abortions" should be called out regardless)
Here's some more info re. fact checkers.
FROM PBS: PolitiFact has already fact-checked many of the repeated claims that could come up again Tuesday night. https://www.politifact.com/elections/ Note that at the top there are fact checks available in English and Spanish. Their live fact check, which you can follow during the debate, is also on our website. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-fact-check-vance-and-walz-meet-for-presidential-debate?utm_source=PBS+NewsHour&utm_campaign=512dae97cb-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_05_14_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_47f99db221-512dae97cb-321064937
I am hoping that Simon has a way to scroll smart remarks during the debate tonight like we had for the last debate. That would be the most entertaining fact check for those of us with good political BS meters.
I am quite optimistic about tonight’s debate. I was encouraged to read that Pete Buttigieg was helping prepare; Buttigieg is one of the country’s best political communicators. Yes, I realize Walz has described himself as a poor debater, and that some people expect Vance to win.
I expect Tim Walz will come armed with memorable, devastating one-liners. If he keeps his head cool, he’ll ridicule Vance’s "weirdness", and he’ll glue Vance-Trump to Project 2025. He’ll emphasize how undemocratic and damaging Project 2025 would be for America.
Equally devastating, Walz may highlight some of Vance’s most absurd lies. "They’re eating your pets!"
Even more devastating, I’m hoping Walz quotes the "old" JD Vance comparing Donald Trump to Hitler.
On a positive note, Walz can talk about his own record in Minnesota, presenting the great progressive policies he implemented as "good common sense". He can underscore the results. And he can talk credibly about the Harris-Walz proposals for "an opportunity economy".
PS. On the downside, it looks like CBS and its moderators are absolving themselves of any responsibility for fact-checking. However, a skillful moderator can anchor their questions in a facts-confirming reality!
I love watching Tim Walz's rallies. They are really motivational. He can get sarcastic and call out Vance's lies at the rallies. Tim is very animated. Vance will just sulk in his corner. I trust Tim to knock out Vance. Tim will do his own fact checking - He has everything stored in his very healthy brain. But I can't watch it. I need to sleep well.
Also, Walz is a former teacher. He is used to dealing with liars and immature bullies.
AND a football coach who knows a good defense and a good offense.
That's right!
There will be real time fact-checking by CBS online, including about 20 CBS journalists. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/business/media/cbs-vice-presidential-debate-fact-check-qr.html?unlocked_article_code=1.O04.BOte.f6lKEPSz4Amn&smid=url-share
I would approve i they put those fact-checks were shown as subtitles or chyrons as part of the actual debate transmission. Otherwise only the most intrepid truth-seekers and election nerds like us are ever going to see them.
Alternatively, and at the very least, a good pro fact-checker should be the featured voice on the pundit discussion immediately following the debate!
I agree. In the meantime, here's some more info re. fact checkers.
FROM PBS: PolitiFact has already fact-checked many of the repeated claims that could come up again Tuesday night. https://www.politifact.com/elections/ Note that at the top there are fact checks available in English and Spanish. Their live fact check, which you can follow during the debate, is also on our website. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-fact-check-vance-and-walz-meet-for-presidential-debate?utm_source=PBS+NewsHour&utm_campaign=512dae97cb-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_05_14_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_47f99db221-512dae97cb-321064937
More layoff numbers are in and the Biden-Harris admin has seen 31.8 million fewer layoffs than Donald Trump in equivalent point so their administration.
I would love to see a comparison of the layoff numbers in Trump’s executive branch compared with those of the Biden-Harris administration.
Thank you for the news on last night’s Tester–Sheehy debate in Montana. So glad to hear that Senator Jon Tester did well. Any links to reviews and evaluations of this debate? I haven’t found them yet.
https://apnews.com/article/tester-sheehy-senate-debate-montana-9fb43b441feb0087927120dfab453b5a
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/jon-tester-tim-sheehy-debate-montana-senate-line-rcna172891
Much appreciated!
To get hyped about the debate, I made this wholesome Midwest dad version of the old Coors Light ads. https://www.instagram.com/p/DAjpMYFPHgz/, https://youtu.be/V3jVkZ-oYyc and https://www.tiktok.com/@typographynerd/video/7420601460552977707
Well done!
OK, now I'm psyched. I'm an ancient Gator who hasn't been to a football stadium in a very long time. It's all coming back to me thanks to your awesome handiwork. LFG!!!!!!
Still can register more Democrats. https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops/volunteer
Voter registration guidelines. https://www.vote.org/voter-registration-deadlines/
As to Pa, the vote vets bus will meet Trump in Butler. We're hoping we can flip veterans, military families, and other groups like Polish Americans and Ukrainian Americans. All of the media outlets especially the Pgh Post Gazette, Pgh Tribune, KDKA, and local papers like Butler Eagle, Beaver County Times, New Castle News, Sharon Herald, etc are pro Trump. Fetterman will be in Butler, also. If Pa is really the Keystone State, we can win by reducing Trump support in counties he won heavily in 2020.
https://www.mobilize.us/padems/
Go, Daniel !!
Did you see this ?
“Polish Pennsylvanians endorse Kamala Harris over Putin, Ukraine concerns”
https://keystonenewsroom.com/2024/09/23/kamala-harris-pa-polish-outreach/
I sincerely hope everyone of Ukrainian, Lithuanian, Latvian or Estonian kin in the US are doing the same!
I just love how much this community is doing to help make this election what we want it to be. I have been volunteering full time in the Charlotte campaign office for the last week and there is so much energy and good work being done. It really inspires me to work as hard as possible for these last 5 weeks of the Election Season. I am going to go back home to MN knowing I did all I could do.
If you have the time or the inclination to help here in North Carolina, here is a link to in-person and virtual events (canvassing/phone banking). As you all know, you can phone bank from anywhere! Or you can come join me for a weekend canvassing here in the Charlotte area!
https://www.mobilize.us/ncdems/
Thank you for your awesome service!
BlueDurham sends a hearty thank you! Safe home to MN, too.
Thank you so much!
Thank you so much, Tim! Feeling love for NC--in this time of great sadness in the state for our mountain brothers and sisters--is a balm. We can get this together!
I agree. What they are going through is awful.
I’m a PA resident who thinks we should vote in person this year to minimize Trump efforts to claim the state based on Election Day in person numbers. Our courts have ruled that any mail in ballot with a missing or incorrect date outside must be discarded. Also, by law they cannot begin processing mail in ballots until election night, which delays results significantly. Simon, if you have a chance, I would appreciate your thoughts.
Ginny, as long as Pennsylvania still has flu season, snowstorms and "Nor'easter" flooding in November, you can never count on getting to the polls on Election Day. Please watch Simon's video on Voting on Day One (above) and you will see why early voting is critical to win in 2024. Please check your county to see if they are sending out mail ballots, and get one. and bank that vote!
Do you have drop boxes in government centers? That might be an alternative to suggest to those reluctant to cast ballots by mail. I am so thankful that in California I get an email says when my ballot was received and when it got counted.
Simon is spot on (again) regarding Hispanic voters. Take Texas, for example. Houston (Harris County) is home for more Latinos than any other Texas county. Biden did a tad better there in 2020 than did Hilary in 2016.
El Paso is 85 percent Hispanic. Biden did a tad better there than Clinton 4 years earlier.
Hispanics are not breaking for GOPers in significant numbers. And demographics matter when it comes to politics.
Take California, for example. It’s a deep blue state. But….starting with Gov. Earl Warren in the 1940s to the present, California has had more GOP governors than Dems.
What?
Here’s the easy explanation:
In 1970, “whites” made up 76 percent of the California population v. 14 percent/Hispanic. Today, Hispanics make up 40 percent of the California population, while “whites” have plunged down to 34 percent.
The changing demographics have shifted the state’s politics.
Interesting about blue CA electing GOP governors. Blue MA, my home state, does likewise but for apparently different reasons: The Dems have a supermajority in both houses of the state legislature, but the House in particular is seriously screwed up. Among state legislatures, it scores near the bottom on transparency and accountability, it concentrates power at the top (which means legislators have to "go along to get along," and if they don't, they lose perks), and it has no in-house research bureau, so legislators have to either do their own research on issues or depend on well-funded lobbyists to do it for them.
It took MAGA a while to take over the state GOP, but they've done it. Republican governor Charlie Baker served two terms and elected not to run again in 2022. Quite possibly he thought two terms was enough, but there was also speculation that he might not have survived the GOP primary.
I seem to recall Governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts being a very good guy. While it didn’t receive much attention, he also ran against Trump for the 2020 Republican Presidential Nomination.
He did indeed. He ended his campaign in IIRC March of 2020, realizing that he couldn't get to the top. Before that, in 2016, he ran as VP on the Libertarian ticket. Which says to me that he saw what was coming before it arrived. Strange but true, Mitt Romney was an OK governor of MA. (I know, I know: if you don't pay close attention, it's hard to believe that a former governor of MA is currently a U.S. senator from Utah, or that his father, George, was a governor of Michigan in the '60s.)
Wasn’t the ACA (Obamacare) based on proposals from the Heritage Foundation, as well as the "Romneycare" that Mitt signed into law as Governor of Massachusetts? Mitt’s tragedy, of course, is that he couldn’t take credit for this given the dark reactionary currents that were already dominant in the Republican Party.
It's also worth remembering that, hard as it is to believe, "Romneycare" was based on a proposal dreamed up by the Heritage Foundation -- the very same outfit that's behind Project 2025. "What's in a name?" you ask. More than meets the eye, sez I. Times change. Today's GOP is not the GOP of my youth, and neither is the Heritage Foundation. But that does help explain some of Commonwealth Care's and then Obamacare's drawbacks: They give too much power to private insurance interests. (See critiques of Medicare Advantage for more info.)
Some of these state-level elections also have more to do with a reaction to the previous state-level office holders (whether they did well or poorly) than national trends. When I was a kid the Dem governor of CA got recalled we ended up with Arnold Schwartenegger replacing him with well under 50% of the vote. Sounded ripe for embarrassment, but he turned out to be... fine? He really wanted the job, took it seriously, and nothing went wrong. He was popularly reelected and after that we went back to 20-point Dem landslides for Brown and Newsom. Newsom and "The Governator" actually appeared together this year to jointly support a ballot measure for limits on oil drilling.
That's true in some places, but not, I think, in MA. In MA there's been tension for decades between socially and economically liberal Democrats (often in the suburbs) and economically liberal but socially conservative Democrats (often working-class urban dwellers often of Irish and/or Italian background). Most leaders of the anti-school-busing movement of the '60s and '70s were urban Democrats. Democratic leadership at the statehouse often comes from this background -- or has to make peace with those who do. Republicans in the suburbs tended to be more socially liberal (e.g., on race, sex, sexuality, etc.) than many urban Democrats.
Over 50% of the population in NM identifies as Hispanic or Latino. 43.5 % of all voters are registered Democrats, 31.1 % Republican, 23.3% "declined to state" akin to independent voters. Here's our voting history https://www.270towin.com/states/New_Mexico
We have tons of Democrats (including many women) leading our state: Governor, Secretary of State, entire Congressional Delegation, Attorney General, Auditor, State Treasurer, Land Commissioner, majority in the state house and senate, all of the judges on the ballot in our largest county (Bernalillo), although most judges' elections are nonpartisan.
Should we describe New Mexico as “bluish purple”? I know Dems hold all statewide offices today; GOPers haven’t carried New Mexico at the presidential level since Bush41 in 1988.
I suppose, although the urban areas like Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Las Cruces are very blue while rural areas are more red. 47.4% of New Mexico is publicly-owned land. ~ 10% of the land is Pueblos, Tribes or Nations. https://www.newmexico.org/native-culture/native-communities/
This is incorrect. Bush Jr. won NM in '04, and only lost it in '00 by a few hundred votes.
Nowadays, it is not purple at all. It is a solid blue state. Biden won by double digits, every Senator and House member is a Dem, all major statewide officials are Dems, and the legislature is solidly Dem as well.
Thank you, Simon! Wondering if you or any community members have any thoughts about Elissa Slotkin’s reported comments about Michigan polling at a donor event/fundraiser? I’m guessing it was a pitch for more donations, but I had some friends ask me about it.
We are doing what it takes to close strong. No need for worry.
Thom Hartmann said her internal polling found Harris "underwater." I have heard nothing else about this, from anyone. Candidates often catastrophize when looking for donations; I got one from Brown in OH saying he is losing; well it was a Ras poll, and an outlier.
Agree that they are using certain polls for donations. But I also see many Democrats not wanting to get into a (wasted energy) public fight about how accurate the polls are. We have the agency to get the results we want. We have the GOTV apparatus that Howard Dean dreamed of all those years ago. My personal belief is that some pollsters are going to break for Harris at the last minute to look like they were right all along. Time will tell if I'm right. I guess it doesn't matter because we have to do the work regardless of polling.
Well said, all of it. And this is precisely what right-wing pollsters do every time: they release more-honest polls just before the election. And unfortunately, their reputation is later judged only by how accurate that last poll was. Never mind that all that transpired before that was fundamentally dishonest and primarily designed to influence the news narrative!
Well, the affront to accurate math is personal for me. I was an engineer who later got a math degree. I spent my career making mathematical models of how systems would work over time. I was actually quite good at it. From my perspective, polling is not predictive. It does tell you relative importance of issues. It also tells you if you're getting better or worse. Not who votes.
Hear, hear! I did a double major in Studio Art and Mathematics. I fondly remember my favorite math professor, Sherman K. Stein, who wrote one of the textbooks we used. I can heartily recommend another book he wrote, "Mathematics: The Man-made Universe".
On another note, I recall a wonderful story about Norbert Wiener, the father of cybernetics, but you’ve probably heard it...
Sorry, Norbert does not ring a bell. I do know some Paul Erdos stories--he was famous for reviewing everyone's papers prior to publication. Erdos said that a mathematician is a device for turning coffee into theorems.
i did actually see an article on Salon recently that asked if math was real....since I am math challenged I wanted to read it, but it was too obtuse for this reader....
Thom Hartman is not someone anyone should be listening to on this matter, or any other matter, except if you are Thom Hartmann's therapist. He is a pot-stirring shock jock with no professional political experience. He's the socialist mirror-image Limbaugh, just without the overt hatemongering. I get that people might like him on a personality level, but as a source of intel? Yikes!
That's not how Simon characterized him when he went on his show.....
He has nothing at all in common with Limbaugh. That's a low blow and inaccurate. If anything I respect him a lot more than I used to. A shock jock he is not.
It's amazing how the Democratic reflex is ALWAYS toward doubt and anxiety, even when there are, like, five different obvious reasons to disregard whatever is making you doubtful. In this *particular* case...
1) Slotkin made this comment weeks ago. Someone just didn't leak it until now. So... no longer relevant.
2) She was at a fundraiser. The last time someone wasn't "trailing" or "falling behind" while fundraising was never.
3) She didn't say "losing," she cleverly said "underwater." This could mean behind in votes, but it could also mean negative net approval, or net unpopularity of issue stances, or behind in comparison to previous benchmarks.
4) Internal polls aren't magic secret oracles that are necessarily better than public polling. Being 1 point behind in an internal poll doesn't mean public polls showing you average 2 points ahead are wrong. Both results say it's too close to call, and keep working.
Well maybe Hartmann, with his big microphone, should not have been droning on about it so much....but you're the first one to discuss it at length than I've seen. And, you are going to see doubt and anxiety. There are reasons for this; the country has had one trauma after another since 2000. There is a collective PTSD. It's not going away. trump still being around and most of us in daily contact with his supporters is very draining on the psyche. An encounter with one of these people can ruin your mood for days. I have taken to wearing visible ear buds in public so as not to engage with these people at the deli counter or on the grocery lines.
I hear ya Fisher. I'm very good at finding things to worry about. Some people sound way too alarmist, and there may be. an audience for that - I think they're demoralizing to others. Against my better judgement, I've gone into many a comment threads, and consumed the wrong content. When in doubt, I tune it out. As for my everyday life, yeah I've taken to wearing earbuds most places as well. I'm afraid what I'll overhear, at least for now. Hell there are co-workers whose politics I intentionally remain in the dark about because I'm afraid to know.
Yep. Bingo. I’m presently trying to talk down a friend who’s normally pretty politically astute but is all wrapped up in swing states averages. I’ve tried to explain the rightwing narrative polling but he thinks I’m “unskewing” and is really worried. It’s still amazing how much 2016 broke a lot of people’s brains.
Yes, but people like Robert Reich and Michael Podhorzer are also calling it razor thin, so it's not just a bunch of "nervous nellies." Let's not get into pie fights here; an assertion was made on Thom Hartmann's show, it was also discussed on Dkos, and i sought more clarity. Luckily someone here provided it. Let's all move on to the debate tonight.
I created a FaceBook post comparing my first- hand experiences of attending the Harris/Walz rally in MI in August and the Trump Town Hall in Warren MI last Friday. If anyone wants to read it (and please feel welcome to post it on your own FB account). My account is Patty Merlo (Patricia Ciloski). Thank you everyone for giving me hope!
Great news about Senator Tester, he is one of my favorite people! I don't understand why Montanians wouldn't want him to continue to represent them as their Senator especially farmers and veterans! It is such good news to see we have almost raised $100,000 through Hopium, I was glad to contribute!! Thank you everyone!!
Me too with Tester. Sheehy - oh he's a handsome guy, got the military citations and handpicked by R's to unseat an outstanding and productive Senator. In the debate, Sheehy repeated rehearsed lines (high housing costs cuz immigrants!). Tester is the commonsense and down to earth guy who ain't gonna bullshit you and understands what you need. I wish I could vote in Montana.
I thought those high housing costs in Montana were caused by migrant monied retirees from California?
I do hope the Tester Campaign can inspire and mobilize 100 % of Montana’s Native American community, to whom Sheehy refuses to apologize, to cast their ballots in this election!
Love the Carly Leech ad! Taking back the high ground on religion and character. I'm curious @Simon or others: do we believe this "Walz is nervous" narrative or is it possible it's floating low expectations to mess with Vance's and Trump's minds? I find it hard to believe he's not a good debater, as he's certainly a good thinker and politician.
No, we don't believe there will be any problem with Walz's ability to debate tonight. We are the winners, and they are the losers, again and again.
Our next VP Walz suffers no fools!!
Just a quick note re: the AtlasIntel polls which favoured Trump a few days ago. David Trotter on 'Voting Trend' did an excellent analysis of their work. Their methods raise red flags and they found Trump leading Harris with women and Harris leading Trump with men!! As he put it, it's the worst poll he's seen - "garbage". It is of course included in the polling aggregators figures. All commentators seem to agree - Trump has a chance of winning if Democrats don't get out and vote - and no chance if Democrats get their voters out! Thanks to everyone here for working to maximise the vote.
Since trump is too chicken (and unwell) to debate again, could Vice President Harris invite Vance to a debate? Vance is probably too chicken to face a Strong Black/South Asian Woman. However, could the major networks (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC) have special Sunday morning programs (before football begins) covering Project 2025 in the most important election of our lifetime? I feel it's their patriotic duty to schedule these programs since NY Times and WaPo are failing us.
Tester did a fine job in last night's debate; Sheey (?) is a smooth liar.