Opposite coast as you, but same feeling lol. I love when people are like, "Yeah, the Democrats run up numbers in the popular vote, but a lot of that is from California."
Uh... you mean by far the largest state, where 1/8 of the entre country lives, 1/6 of the entire economy is run, the most food is produced, and the most active military members are? Yeah, we totally don't count with regards to what makes up "real America." We definitely shouldn't get so much of a say in things. *eyerolls to infinity*
40 North Carolina Letters ready, with 40 to go! May the wind be at our backs! Do More Worry Less, Keep Calm & Campaign On and.... NEVER LET THE RED WAVING BASTARDS WEAR YOU DOWN!!!
Way to go! I’ve mailed a batch of letters to NC as well. Now I’m writing letters to NE-02. Since my Dad was born and raised in Nebraska, it feels right! A friend of mine in CA said she’s traveling this weekend to NV to do some canvassing. So many wonderful things happening!
No no no no NOT WaPo, that was formerly a fair newspaper, truthful, that truly espoused WaPo slogan 'Democracy Dies In Darkness.' Since Murdoch sycophant/ protegy publisher Wm Lewis came on board, WaPo is increasingly another Fox, has lost its way, has been covering up trump lies for years. Glen Kessler's fact checking of trump + vance was nothing, like trump tossing paper towells, to Puerto Rican hurricaine victims, ditto, the few brave columnists, whom Lewis still allows to be truth-tellers. As a long-time DC resident, educated here, since Lewis heads WaPo, found LA Times + Boston Globe more truthful re trump--vance + Heritage Foundation.
I dropped WaPo and the NYTimes...they were merciless on Biden for every stutter-every slow descent from Air Force 1. If he had twirled around for 40 minutes instead of answering questions......these papers would have simply blown up...I can just imagine the headlines and the raging cataract of opinions... It is sad what has happened to the Fourth Estate. That is why sites like this one are so incredibly important..
John, The only reason I continue to subscribe to WaPo is for the columnists. When I called WaPo to cancel, they seemed so desperate to not loose more subscribers, that they gave me Hopium rate, worth access to J Rubin, EJ Dionne, E Robinson etc.
And where is the merciless to be found as Trump does his word salads, lies, sways to music for 39 minutes, uses fouls language to describe Kamala Harris, calls his supporters fat pigs…..I can barely imagine how the media would be relentlessly skewering Biden if he did 1/10th of the fuckery that Trump does. They’re all pretty much awful.
He’s falling asleep on the job and people are noticing. Glad to see Kamala bringing this up. We’ve got the momentum, so let’s keep it up. Ignore polls. I was knocking on doors in Ohio this morning and everyone who had requested a ballot had sent it back already. Very rural area, but 3 or 4 Kamala signs for every Trump sign.
Mailed some more Vote Forward letters to my fellow Georgians and am about to step WAY out of my introvert comfort zone and do some more canvassing! Also shared today's Hopium Chronicles with my Indivisible core team so that they can spread the word about the red waving of the polls.
Yes, "it is likely that red waved maps showing Trump winning will be used as a central argument for him to contest the election." And Trump trying to add to his counts in blue states like CA and NY, as he was doing in his campaign visits recently, is another such tactic; if he increases his national percentage over 2020, he'll use that too. Anything -- pre-election polls, a higher national percentage, or a higher total vote count -- will be magnified and weaponized by his campaign to contest an election loss.
The more concurrent pre-election written articles pointing out the DT strategy of creating a false narrative pre-election to be used for post-election deceit, the more of a case the Dems will have against MAGA’s lawsuits.
I meant it as a strategy on our side. Certainly Simon and his fellow strategists/Zoomers, such as Tom Bonier, who can spread this information in publications and in videos. I think i’ve also read it in The Atlantic in some of their articles but didn’t tag them at the time as i only just had this thought now!
It is true that there are more Trumpers in CA than there are in all of Florida, simply because we are such a big state. However, the Senate races will likely be called for Schiff and Gillibrand within an hour or two. (*Is* anyone running in NY as a Republican for Senator? We in CA have Yet Another Former Celebrity who would not even have a chance if Adam Schiff was sent back to the past, 1632 style.)
What I sometimes wonder is if the calls to abolish the Electoral College might come from the Republicans this time, if they run up the score in big blue states and 💡”we do have a lot of voters there! Don’t they deserve a voice?”
I'm wondering if there should be TikTok ( and other social media content) warning people NOT to buy into the red wave polling ? Hell maybe there already is? On the other hand, it's likely Gen-Z may not be paying attention to polling anyway. I would always remind all of the senate races that were incorrectly predicted by the "red wave" polling in '22
The people most concerned about red wave polling have already voted for Kamala or definitely will. It seems to me that the Trump people were planning to do this all along and create a false narrative (which the Biden-hating media would have LOVED to parrot), but had not counted on Trump starting to look dead on his feet and his rallies getting emptier in the last weeks of the campaign. You don't see his half-empty Michigan rally or watch him dozing on stage and say to yourself, "This young stallion has really taken the bit in his teeth! Good luck catching up with this greased lightning of a campaign, Democrats!" So this long-held plan was really crafted to exploit the weaknesses of Joe Biden, who would not have been able to keep up with the schedule that Kamala Harris has been sustaining. That's my take, anyway. After they lose (which they will), they will definitely start crying "No fair!" But who is going to listen?
The radical MAGA loyalists are watching & listening, Brian. I sense they are prepared for a stronger repeat of the January 6th insurrection, if Harris wins.
I was listening to a journalist who interviewed a young man who was tried & imprisoned for his nefarious crimes within the Capitol that day. He seemed to be a follower of older militant groups, thus finding himself in the midst of the angry mob. He stated while he was in prison in DC, his fellow insurrection prisoners were placed together within the jail. Since they were isolated, they banded together creating a group of exteme radical far-right MAGA loyalists with a sense of unity towards their encompassed feelings of revenge & payback. He stated that he'll be staying in DC, for a January 5th revival. Truly scary in my personal opinion.
So either way, our country must be prepared for the continuation of these radical extremist groups. The moderate Republicans also see these issues as a true threat to our democracy.
Throughout history we've seen the overthrow of governments and institutions while installing an autocratic system of government. Trump has really changed our nation, a very divisive political climate, for sure.
Even in my family of 6 brothers and sisters, my brothers have isolated themselves due to their radical political views. My youngest sister has also joined them, yet I've been able to keep her friendship on a personal level, never discussing politics. It's truly sad how families have been seperated by political ideologies. I truly hope Kamala Harris wins & is able to bring us all to the table again.
VOTE 🇺🇸 💙 🇺🇸 Harris/Walz
“The capacity for hope is the most significant fact of life. It provides human beings with a sense of destination and the energy to get started.”
Our GOTV Rally in the Valley / Parade to the Polls was so awesome today! Our local Democrats brought the love to our State and US legislators while we ate burritos and drank coffee in the park, in the rain before heading to the polls. It's NM, so we always appreciate the rain.
When you think about it, driving up the odds for TFG and then *actually* betting on H/W — wagering on elections of course being illegal — could be part of this betting market chicanery?
That’s an interesting idea. I was thinking that telling your voters you’re at 65% risks creating passivity and complacency with them so that they may not make the effort to get to the polls.
Re Polymarket— I saw a great clip this morning from Bill Maher’s show where Mark Cuban explained to Joe Scarborough, Maher and David Hogg that U.S. citizens can’t participate in Polymarket and therefore it is irrelevant. They agreed it was essentially foreign interference in the election.
A threat to national security should TRUMP the “Goldwater Rule”. The campaign should go beyond the issue of “exhaustion”. Press for a valid medical assessment.
Before all of the recent event cancellations, the evidence for his mental decline has been both broad and deep - for a long time. The man’s father had a documented cognitive failure in his 80’s (along with some possible cancers). Use the Google.
This obvious deficiency must be made explicit. It is time for an intervention - for the nation. This problem must be made PUBLIC. The MSM cannot be allowed to duck. Possibly, they should be the recipient of numerous postcards, texts, and calls. Send the MSM this transcript link to his episode in PA this week: https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/trump-town-hall-in-pennsylvania. It is concerning.
Lastly, please watch Simon on Amanpour this weekend. During the segment, the question was asked about TFG’s “mental acuity”. Some folks across “The Pond” are concerned as well.
Back when Joe had his awful debate performance, I said that trump would be adrooling vegetable by September. A month or so late, but he is rapidly getting there.
It is really “pick your own adventure” since the majority of his answers are basically incoherent. You alone know your intended audience for the information that you wish to provide. An interesting exercise is to just read some of his responses out loud to yourself or to someone else. The disjointed nature of his thought processes becomes quite apparent (i.e. even with imperfect transcription).
However, If you want a suggestion, take a look at the interaction between timestamp, 10:42, and timestamp, 16:03. When you review the passage, remember that the question was about housing affordability. Supposedly, TFG was a builder. Also, his use of any "numbers" is easy to refute by any honest fact-checker.
Please note that the statements about lowering energy costs are curious since he collaborated with Russia and Saudi Arabia to raise oil prices and save OPEC+ at the beginning of COVID. I'll share more about OPEC+ in the near future. It is a curious story with new relevance.
Let me know if any of this info helps. Thanks for your interest.
Thanks, Patrick. I've watched him speak enough times recently to be familiar with his incoherent approach to answering questions. By using the term "his episode," your post left me with the impression that he had said something during the Pennsylvania town hall that was even more egregious or more indicative of mental decline than what we're been hearing lately. Thank you for your hard work. Onward!
Understood. Remember that this gathering in PA was the event that finally penetrated the years-long normalization of TFG by the MSM. So, for the "episode" in question, see timestamp, 57:47. It is the definition of "weird" (smile).
Thanks, Patrick. Yes, I've heard about what happened at timestamp 57:47. But I'm struck by what he said at timestamp 1:00:00 -- "She loses teleprompters and you wouldn’t know that she lost it." He actually paid Harris a compliment!
Not for a goddamn second, especially since that appears to be the first one having him with THAT kind of lead. I believe Simon identified it as a suspicious pollster.
^^This, right here. I don't get the philosophy of including everything. Yeah yeah yeah, they're "de-weighting" the lower-quality polls. How about this idea: don't include something unless it has a good track record for a couple years? You go to the ActiVote website (or Patriot Polls, or whatever) and it's just such obviously shoddy garbage. It's like if I showed up at an NBA team and asked them to let me play, because I learned how to dribble last week. No dice.
Also, looking at the 538 page for the national polls, it's amazing that we haven't had a really actually good non-partisan one done in over a week! What the heck? (Unless you count Emerson and just add a point to whatever Harris got.) Everything they have uploaded is either partisan, has too small a sample size, no likely voter screen, or all of the above. The last really good ones were CBS/YouGov (Harris +3), NYT/Siena (+3.5), and PBS/Marist (+4), all taken the first or second week of the month! I guess you could count the trackers with Morning Consult +4 and Economist +4. Still, an appalling dearth of actual outlets you can take seriously.
Same here Chris. New postcards arrived yesterday and I banged out another 50 for Tony V. This is the first time I've ever written them and I find the act of writing neat colorful cards is incredibly therapeutic .. completely aligned with DMWL.
Hopefully, you have stocked up on postcard stamps - they are hard to find around here. And while the general population doesn't seem to know anything about the postcard revolution, the postal workers are fully aware of it!
(From Joshua Smithley, who seems to be a real expert on PA)
'I will say this - turnout in the Philly collars and Allegheny are on track to be very, very high. Wouldn’t be shocked if they got close to or hit 2020 turnout.
'I encourage you to think about how that bodes as far as math is concerned for the rest of the state.'
It’s good news for us, right? Philly collars for sure but confused about Allegheny - Pittsburgh (hopefully trending blue). Saw this piece that made me hopeful. https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/pittsburgh-harris-walz
What do PA people think? I am thinking we are looking very good in PA and Mich (and need to fight it out in Wis). I’ve been in MIch this week and can confirm that we are kicking ass here.
As I understand it, in addition to juicing turnout in Philly & Pittsburgh, we have to ensure that we carry a lot of blue collar counties like Erie, while making inroads in redder counties in the so-called "T". There are counties he's bound to win, but if we can make his victories smaller in those places that puts us in better shape. Basically we have to shave down the margins in red counties, while ensuring turnout in blue counties is through the roof!
Yep. The whole concept of "winning" a county in a presidential election doesn't make a lot of sense because only the statewide total matter. If we can gain a few more votes by going into traditionally red areas that only helps us. Doesn't matter if Trump "wins" the area by 20 points if we're adding more voters to the statewide total than they are.
PA’s Senator told Pod Save America a couple of weeks ago that we “need to get close to breaking even in the Pittsburgh media market”, which includes but is not limited to Allegheny. Thankfully, TargetSmart let’s you look all this up by media market.
So excited. Our ballots were mailed on Wednesday (I live in a mail in ballots only state - WA). We received them Thursday afternoon, voted and returned them to ballot box Thursday night. LOVE EARLY VOTING!!! That's two down and three (college age kids) to go!
Oh that's too bad about the older white man. I hope he feels better tomorrow.
We need to run up the score on the popular vote! Every vote matters.
Opposite coast as you, but same feeling lol. I love when people are like, "Yeah, the Democrats run up numbers in the popular vote, but a lot of that is from California."
Uh... you mean by far the largest state, where 1/8 of the entre country lives, 1/6 of the entire economy is run, the most food is produced, and the most active military members are? Yeah, we totally don't count with regards to what makes up "real America." We definitely shouldn't get so much of a say in things. *eyerolls to infinity*
I just received my ballot in the mail and will return it today! My wife will do the same. Two more votes soon in the bank for Harris and Dems!
40 North Carolina Letters ready, with 40 to go! May the wind be at our backs! Do More Worry Less, Keep Calm & Campaign On and.... NEVER LET THE RED WAVING BASTARDS WEAR YOU DOWN!!!
🤣🤣 👊🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
thanks for all you're doing
Thanks Jarrod - I'm in NC and am working on my last 40 Vote Forward letters - I've mailed the rest already.
Way to go! I’ve mailed a batch of letters to NC as well. Now I’m writing letters to NE-02. Since my Dad was born and raised in Nebraska, it feels right! A friend of mine in CA said she’s traveling this weekend to NV to do some canvassing. So many wonderful things happening!
Polls aren’t worth spit!
🤣 oops, you made a typo 🤣
🤣
In re: to Red Wave polling, only WaPo excludes all of them totally in their averages. Here is a link:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/
Updated daily
Thank you
Yes, I've started going to WaPo.
No no no no NOT WaPo, that was formerly a fair newspaper, truthful, that truly espoused WaPo slogan 'Democracy Dies In Darkness.' Since Murdoch sycophant/ protegy publisher Wm Lewis came on board, WaPo is increasingly another Fox, has lost its way, has been covering up trump lies for years. Glen Kessler's fact checking of trump + vance was nothing, like trump tossing paper towells, to Puerto Rican hurricaine victims, ditto, the few brave columnists, whom Lewis still allows to be truth-tellers. As a long-time DC resident, educated here, since Lewis heads WaPo, found LA Times + Boston Globe more truthful re trump--vance + Heritage Foundation.
Try The Guardian too.
It’s not for everyday news, but for a lot of big issues, Pro Publica is a great publication as well.
Thanks! Good idea!!!!
x100000000000000000000000000000000000
Seriously MSM is a corpse.
I dropped WaPo and the NYTimes...they were merciless on Biden for every stutter-every slow descent from Air Force 1. If he had twirled around for 40 minutes instead of answering questions......these papers would have simply blown up...I can just imagine the headlines and the raging cataract of opinions... It is sad what has happened to the Fourth Estate. That is why sites like this one are so incredibly important..
You don’t need a NYT subscription to access the puzzles. Just do a search for them on whatever search engine you use.
John, The only reason I continue to subscribe to WaPo is for the columnists. When I called WaPo to cancel, they seemed so desperate to not loose more subscribers, that they gave me Hopium rate, worth access to J Rubin, EJ Dionne, E Robinson etc.
And where is the merciless to be found as Trump does his word salads, lies, sways to music for 39 minutes, uses fouls language to describe Kamala Harris, calls his supporters fat pigs…..I can barely imagine how the media would be relentlessly skewering Biden if he did 1/10th of the fuckery that Trump does. They’re all pretty much awful.
They still include the Fox “News” polls which Simon lists as a red wave pollster but everything else seems to be independent pollsters.
Thanks for the link!
He’s falling asleep on the job and people are noticing. Glad to see Kamala bringing this up. We’ve got the momentum, so let’s keep it up. Ignore polls. I was knocking on doors in Ohio this morning and everyone who had requested a ballot had sent it back already. Very rural area, but 3 or 4 Kamala signs for every Trump sign.
He fell asleep in the courtroom too, and will have plenty of time in the future to snooze there some more.
May he find himself snoozing on a cot in orange jammies!
Comments are on now!
Mailed some more Vote Forward letters to my fellow Georgians and am about to step WAY out of my introvert comfort zone and do some more canvassing! Also shared today's Hopium Chronicles with my Indivisible core team so that they can spread the word about the red waving of the polls.
Way to go! You've got this!
Yes, "it is likely that red waved maps showing Trump winning will be used as a central argument for him to contest the election." And Trump trying to add to his counts in blue states like CA and NY, as he was doing in his campaign visits recently, is another such tactic; if he increases his national percentage over 2020, he'll use that too. Anything -- pre-election polls, a higher national percentage, or a higher total vote count -- will be magnified and weaponized by his campaign to contest an election loss.
The more concurrent pre-election written articles pointing out the DT strategy of creating a false narrative pre-election to be used for post-election deceit, the more of a case the Dems will have against MAGA’s lawsuits.
Where are these articles appearing.? We should spread the word.
I meant it as a strategy on our side. Certainly Simon and his fellow strategists/Zoomers, such as Tom Bonier, who can spread this information in publications and in videos. I think i’ve also read it in The Atlantic in some of their articles but didn’t tag them at the time as i only just had this thought now!
Yeah, well, polls are not votes.
But Poles vote!
It is true that there are more Trumpers in CA than there are in all of Florida, simply because we are such a big state. However, the Senate races will likely be called for Schiff and Gillibrand within an hour or two. (*Is* anyone running in NY as a Republican for Senator? We in CA have Yet Another Former Celebrity who would not even have a chance if Adam Schiff was sent back to the past, 1632 style.)
What I sometimes wonder is if the calls to abolish the Electoral College might come from the Republicans this time, if they run up the score in big blue states and 💡”we do have a lot of voters there! Don’t they deserve a voice?”
I'm wondering if there should be TikTok ( and other social media content) warning people NOT to buy into the red wave polling ? Hell maybe there already is? On the other hand, it's likely Gen-Z may not be paying attention to polling anyway. I would always remind all of the senate races that were incorrectly predicted by the "red wave" polling in '22
The people most concerned about red wave polling have already voted for Kamala or definitely will. It seems to me that the Trump people were planning to do this all along and create a false narrative (which the Biden-hating media would have LOVED to parrot), but had not counted on Trump starting to look dead on his feet and his rallies getting emptier in the last weeks of the campaign. You don't see his half-empty Michigan rally or watch him dozing on stage and say to yourself, "This young stallion has really taken the bit in his teeth! Good luck catching up with this greased lightning of a campaign, Democrats!" So this long-held plan was really crafted to exploit the weaknesses of Joe Biden, who would not have been able to keep up with the schedule that Kamala Harris has been sustaining. That's my take, anyway. After they lose (which they will), they will definitely start crying "No fair!" But who is going to listen?
The radical MAGA loyalists are watching & listening, Brian. I sense they are prepared for a stronger repeat of the January 6th insurrection, if Harris wins.
I was listening to a journalist who interviewed a young man who was tried & imprisoned for his nefarious crimes within the Capitol that day. He seemed to be a follower of older militant groups, thus finding himself in the midst of the angry mob. He stated while he was in prison in DC, his fellow insurrection prisoners were placed together within the jail. Since they were isolated, they banded together creating a group of exteme radical far-right MAGA loyalists with a sense of unity towards their encompassed feelings of revenge & payback. He stated that he'll be staying in DC, for a January 5th revival. Truly scary in my personal opinion.
So either way, our country must be prepared for the continuation of these radical extremist groups. The moderate Republicans also see these issues as a true threat to our democracy.
Throughout history we've seen the overthrow of governments and institutions while installing an autocratic system of government. Trump has really changed our nation, a very divisive political climate, for sure.
Even in my family of 6 brothers and sisters, my brothers have isolated themselves due to their radical political views. My youngest sister has also joined them, yet I've been able to keep her friendship on a personal level, never discussing politics. It's truly sad how families have been seperated by political ideologies. I truly hope Kamala Harris wins & is able to bring us all to the table again.
VOTE 🇺🇸 💙 🇺🇸 Harris/Walz
“The capacity for hope is the most significant fact of life. It provides human beings with a sense of destination and the energy to get started.”
–Norman Cousins
SCOTUS
I'm not on TikTok but I know Jessica Craven (of Chop Wood Carry Water) is on there talking about that.
If you follow TikTok, I would check for videos from PoliticsGirl, Leigh McGowan, or Jessica Craven.
Our GOTV Rally in the Valley / Parade to the Polls was so awesome today! Our local Democrats brought the love to our State and US legislators while we ate burritos and drank coffee in the park, in the rain before heading to the polls. It's NM, so we always appreciate the rain.
Polymarket is astrology for Silicon Valley MAGA bros, but less accurate...
When you think about it, driving up the odds for TFG and then *actually* betting on H/W — wagering on elections of course being illegal — could be part of this betting market chicanery?
I don’t understand betting at all. But I did wonder about the chicanery you describe. What disgusting creatures.
That’s an interesting idea. I was thinking that telling your voters you’re at 65% risks creating passivity and complacency with them so that they may not make the effort to get to the polls.
Re Polymarket— I saw a great clip this morning from Bill Maher’s show where Mark Cuban explained to Joe Scarborough, Maher and David Hogg that U.S. citizens can’t participate in Polymarket and therefore it is irrelevant. They agreed it was essentially foreign interference in the election.
Simon et al.:
Back to the heavy. Playtime is over! The clock has run out for subtlety. TFG is significantly mentally diminished. Here is an important YouTube link by some thoughtful psychologists (also some dialogue on "The Political Brain"): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xo8P3ntgfeI&list=PLR585i0a0Ql30mDoIyCrDDg65PEcMJMj1 .
A threat to national security should TRUMP the “Goldwater Rule”. The campaign should go beyond the issue of “exhaustion”. Press for a valid medical assessment.
Before all of the recent event cancellations, the evidence for his mental decline has been both broad and deep - for a long time. The man’s father had a documented cognitive failure in his 80’s (along with some possible cancers). Use the Google.
This obvious deficiency must be made explicit. It is time for an intervention - for the nation. This problem must be made PUBLIC. The MSM cannot be allowed to duck. Possibly, they should be the recipient of numerous postcards, texts, and calls. Send the MSM this transcript link to his episode in PA this week: https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/trump-town-hall-in-pennsylvania. It is concerning.
Lastly, please watch Simon on Amanpour this weekend. During the segment, the question was asked about TFG’s “mental acuity”. Some folks across “The Pond” are concerned as well.
Thanks.
Back when Joe had his awful debate performance, I said that trump would be adrooling vegetable by September. A month or so late, but he is rapidly getting there.
Can you pinpoint the place(s) in the transcript that are most relevant to your point? So we don't have to read the whole thing? :) TIA.
Carolyn:
It is really “pick your own adventure” since the majority of his answers are basically incoherent. You alone know your intended audience for the information that you wish to provide. An interesting exercise is to just read some of his responses out loud to yourself or to someone else. The disjointed nature of his thought processes becomes quite apparent (i.e. even with imperfect transcription).
However, If you want a suggestion, take a look at the interaction between timestamp, 10:42, and timestamp, 16:03. When you review the passage, remember that the question was about housing affordability. Supposedly, TFG was a builder. Also, his use of any "numbers" is easy to refute by any honest fact-checker.
Please note that the statements about lowering energy costs are curious since he collaborated with Russia and Saudi Arabia to raise oil prices and save OPEC+ at the beginning of COVID. I'll share more about OPEC+ in the near future. It is a curious story with new relevance.
Let me know if any of this info helps. Thanks for your interest.
Thanks, Patrick. I've watched him speak enough times recently to be familiar with his incoherent approach to answering questions. By using the term "his episode," your post left me with the impression that he had said something during the Pennsylvania town hall that was even more egregious or more indicative of mental decline than what we're been hearing lately. Thank you for your hard work. Onward!
Understood. Remember that this gathering in PA was the event that finally penetrated the years-long normalization of TFG by the MSM. So, for the "episode" in question, see timestamp, 57:47. It is the definition of "weird" (smile).
Be well. DMWL.
Thanks, Patrick. Yes, I've heard about what happened at timestamp 57:47. But I'm struck by what he said at timestamp 1:00:00 -- "She loses teleprompters and you wouldn’t know that she lost it." He actually paid Harris a compliment!
Yeah, ActiVote has trump up in NC by 17 points on 538. Anyone buying that? Meanwhile I'm working on postcards.
Not for a goddamn second, especially since that appears to be the first one having him with THAT kind of lead. I believe Simon identified it as a suspicious pollster.
The problem is 538 is still using it in their average. Even if it has a very small effect; it still has one. No reason 538 should even be using it.
^^This, right here. I don't get the philosophy of including everything. Yeah yeah yeah, they're "de-weighting" the lower-quality polls. How about this idea: don't include something unless it has a good track record for a couple years? You go to the ActiVote website (or Patriot Polls, or whatever) and it's just such obviously shoddy garbage. It's like if I showed up at an NBA team and asked them to let me play, because I learned how to dribble last week. No dice.
Also, looking at the 538 page for the national polls, it's amazing that we haven't had a really actually good non-partisan one done in over a week! What the heck? (Unless you count Emerson and just add a point to whatever Harris got.) Everything they have uploaded is either partisan, has too small a sample size, no likely voter screen, or all of the above. The last really good ones were CBS/YouGov (Harris +3), NYT/Siena (+3.5), and PBS/Marist (+4), all taken the first or second week of the month! I guess you could count the trackers with Morning Consult +4 and Economist +4. Still, an appalling dearth of actual outlets you can take seriously.
Sounds as reasonable as a horseradish milkshake. And Robinson is running neck and neck with Stein, right?
That thought alone is making my nose burn
Same here Chris. New postcards arrived yesterday and I banged out another 50 for Tony V. This is the first time I've ever written them and I find the act of writing neat colorful cards is incredibly therapeutic .. completely aligned with DMWL.
I know what your mean, this is the first year I've done them. I'm kicking myself for never having done them before.
Hopefully, you have stocked up on postcard stamps - they are hard to find around here. And while the general population doesn't seem to know anything about the postcard revolution, the postal workers are fully aware of it!
https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1847454875291943134
(From Joshua Smithley, who seems to be a real expert on PA)
'I will say this - turnout in the Philly collars and Allegheny are on track to be very, very high. Wouldn’t be shocked if they got close to or hit 2020 turnout.
'I encourage you to think about how that bodes as far as math is concerned for the rest of the state.'
It’s good news for us, right? Philly collars for sure but confused about Allegheny - Pittsburgh (hopefully trending blue). Saw this piece that made me hopeful. https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/pittsburgh-harris-walz
What do PA people think? I am thinking we are looking very good in PA and Mich (and need to fight it out in Wis). I’ve been in MIch this week and can confirm that we are kicking ass here.
Alleghany is a good county for us. And they have early voting for the first time because Democrats are in power there.
As I understand it, in addition to juicing turnout in Philly & Pittsburgh, we have to ensure that we carry a lot of blue collar counties like Erie, while making inroads in redder counties in the so-called "T". There are counties he's bound to win, but if we can make his victories smaller in those places that puts us in better shape. Basically we have to shave down the margins in red counties, while ensuring turnout in blue counties is through the roof!
Yep. The whole concept of "winning" a county in a presidential election doesn't make a lot of sense because only the statewide total matter. If we can gain a few more votes by going into traditionally red areas that only helps us. Doesn't matter if Trump "wins" the area by 20 points if we're adding more voters to the statewide total than they are.
PA’s Senator told Pod Save America a couple of weeks ago that we “need to get close to breaking even in the Pittsburgh media market”, which includes but is not limited to Allegheny. Thankfully, TargetSmart let’s you look all this up by media market.
how do you look it up by media market?
Great article! Thank you for sharing it.
So excited. Our ballots were mailed on Wednesday (I live in a mail in ballots only state - WA). We received them Thursday afternoon, voted and returned them to ballot box Thursday night. LOVE EARLY VOTING!!! That's two down and three (college age kids) to go!