It’s happening! Americans are voting – more than 419,000 people have voted so far! Professor Michael McDonald of the University of Florida and his Election Project are keeping tabs on the Early Vote, just as he has in many recent elections. (Nitter is a way to access Tweets.)
Tom Bonier and Simon will have much more to say about the Early Vote later. So far, Virginia accounts for the majority, more than 260,000 of which 213,000 are In-Person Votes.
Party registration data is available for some states (CA, CO, CT, DC, FL, IA, ID, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NC, OR, PA, RI and SD). The very-early signals are good for Democrats, and you can follow the development state-by-state. First, three swing states:
Still waiting for commentary about who are "likely" to vote. IMHO boucoups more Dems than Reps. More women than men. More Gen Z than expected.
Reprise: "Today, there are about 91 million Americans who have voted for Biden and House Democrats since 2016, and about 83 million who have voted for Trump or House Republicans. If this pool of voters votes that way again, and if they constitute 80 percent of those voting in 2024 (a fairly conservative assumption), then the other 20 percent of voters would have to favor Trump by 18 points for him to overcome that deficit." Podheizer.
It’s about turnout at this point. That’s it. If turnout is close to the heavy-GOP NYT model, Trump very well could eke out a victory. If it’s closer to the majority of most other pollsters, Harris likely wins with over 300 EVs.
Let’s make the NYT wrong. Let’s drive enthusiasm. Stay loud. I meant it…. STAY LOUD! Stay positive.
P.S. - For Simon and the other folks who get a kick out of the GOP narrative pollsters, check out Robert Cahaly’s (Trafalgar) recent twitter post. He essentially admits he is about to flood the zone with a bunch of bullshit polls. That asshole has no shame.
150% correct about Cahaly. He's a shameless tool, whom will DO ANYTHING to replicate the 15 minutes of fame he gained in 2016. It's been quite fun watching him trying to explain himself in all subsequent election post mortems. However, as you say, deep down, he knows he's full of shit.
I remember Cahaly predicting that Lee Zeldin would win an upset victory for NY-GOV because “people he knew” told him that they were voting for Zeldin but afraid to admit it because New York is so blue. “My hairdresser’s cousin told me that she is voting for Lee Zeldin but isn’t going to admit it and there are DOZENS of us! DOZENS!”
This was in “New York” magazine which I get because I get the bundle of Apple newsstand media. (In case anyone wonders why a Californian gives a toot!)
And you know and I know what happened. Yes, Zeldin cut it closer than expected for New York, but he lost. Hochul won. Cahaly got egg on his face. Bet you he’s about to wind up egged again.
I've been texting/FBing/telling everyone I know to do three things: 1) Make sure all the young people in their lives are registered and voting and that their friends are registered and voting and 2) make a list of all people they know in the battlegrounds who are Pro-Harris and reach out to them to VOTE ASAP and tell them to tell all their networks the same!
And have them make sure they are still registered. It was reported on MSNBC yesterday that 747,000 were removed from the voter rolls in NC. I am going to add a little note to my postcards reminding them to check their voter registration status, just to be on the safe side.
Even Nate Silver is bullish on Dems in Florida, and especially Murcasel-Powell:
"Florida polls have gradually tightened to the point where it's at least an interesting decision for Harris HQ on whether to invest there. ROI on presidential race not so great, but you also get a puncher's chance of winning the Senate race."
Yes! Christopher Bouzy is the one I follow on Florida. Love his online sparring with Evan Power, Chair of the Florida Republican Party. And as you know, Bouzy is convinced that Kamala Harris wins Florida.
I think Florida will be called early for VP Harris. I've been paying attention. It's my home state and I still have family there. Michael Steele thinks NC, GA and FL all go blue this year. When Doug Emhoff is visiting the Villages, and they open TWO field offices in Jax, obviously the campaign thinks like I do. In conclusion, go Gators.
This would make my entire year. I would love to hear FL called early for Harris. And tune in to the flies on the walls at Mar-A-Lago dodging Heinz bottles.
As I read this comment I am knocking on my wooden side table. I have connections to two states that have broken my heart mightily in recent years. I was born in Florida & raised in Ohio ( I live in neither today). I am saying to myself ' Oh Florida, do you have it in you do the right (left) thing? Can you do what Ohio likely won't?!' Again knocking on my wooden side table. Back to postcards for me as I do my damndest to keep calm and campaign on....
If it makes you feel better, Jarrod, just think of the tens of millions that the Republicans will have to spend to defend Florida. That unexpected campaign expenditure may allow Sherrod Brown to keep his seat in OH. Glass half full.
Thanks for the nitter link! Just spent some time reading Bouzy's comebacks. So delicious. I keep remembering the night of the '22 GA senate race, thinking we'd lost and going to bed dejected, then waking up to a win and now we're 51-49...so I'm back to hopeful about FL, TX (and who knows about MO), along with MT and OH. Maybe I'm heady, but at this time, in this place, I'm feeling anything is possible!!!
This was a very powerful speech and I think it hit all the points she needed to make regarding the border. NOW it is up to each of us to do something every day if possible, to see that she is elected. Do NOT be overly confident, you KNOW the assignment.
It's not just that it was a superb speech. Kamala showed great COMPASSION toward the people in the room, and oozed experience and understanding of the intricacies of the issue. Yet, she also knew how to FIX IT. No headliner slogan. Real issues. Real people. Real solutions.
We don't need another fake "magician entertainer."
What - you mean we can’t just “ build a wall”? lol!
That was a phenomenal speech. I’m in awe of her grasp of the issues and the complexity and nuance of her solutions. Blue up and down the ballot so she can get the job done!
S/O to Simon for his long term investment in the blue dot! The gravy on that biscuit is that NE-2 is also a pretty good suburban bellwether and her polling lead there is a very, very, very positive sign.
It's awesome to see and hear from Julie! I'm a college professor who just has a passion for social justice (I teach DEI) and therefore American politics. I am so in awe of the work that political campaign organizers do - it looks like you'd have to be superhuman to pull this off! I'm quite sure I don't have the energy to do what you do, but I'm thrilled to support the campaign in multiple ways (thanks, Simon) and to cheer your hard work and skill in getting Kamala and Tim elected. Major major props to Julie and her staff!
I've been seeing a lot of punditry lately saying Harris needs to grab more attention. But what if the most effective part of her campaign is flying under the radar and is this painstaking ground game? No, not getting headlines every day. But the campaign is meeting voters every day, all over. Hearing that Gwen Walz is driving door to door in R country, in a swing state - well, that's just wonderful and so encouraging. If the Harris campaign is as fine-tuned as they seem, it's very...hopium.
Some of these old school heart-blessed pundits don't get that the media game has moved to Tik Tok. My sense is that old school TV news and online "newspapers" is not where the action is. At all.
Well, by that measure I must be an antiquated, even archaic web user.
Not only have I never been on TikTok or Instagram, I never even signed up for Facebook. Why not? I recall looking into it in its infancy, recognizing Mark Zuckerberg’s Facebook as an absolutely ingenious data-mining operation – and deciding never to feed it.
Hopium and the forums of a now-defunct livestream chess site is the closest I’ve come to social media.
Pundit. Comes from the Sanskrit paṇḍita, originally. It used to mean someone who was educated in the traditional branches of Indian learning. Now it seems to be a synonym for "clown."
Back in 2016, canvassing and local phone banking were pretty much the entire game for volunteers. If you didn't live in a swing state or near a swing district then sending $$ to candidates was your only option. But Trump's inauguration and the subsequent Women's March lit a fire that is still going strong.
Covid forced the Democrats to get creative in advance of the 2020 election and the numbers of people writing postcards/letters and phonebanking remotely exploded! Grassroots activism was no longer constrained geographically.
And grassroots groups realized that with postcards and letters activism no longer was limited to "just in time" activism to have the most impact. People could pace themselves writing to other voters and then simply mail the fruits of their efforts out at the optimum time!
And then of course came the Dobbs decision. Two years later, I still find it mindblowing that the GOP patriarchy thought that it would blow over quickly! It seems to me that the energy and momentum just keeps on building!
I'm in NC and we are just hitting what used to be the time of year that canvassing and phone banking geared up. But we've been going strong since March here! And if we can get the Vote on Day 1 message out for our reliabe base, I think we have the real potential to reach those voters who have been ignored in past elections.
The ultimate DEI hire was Ben Carson who only got the job because Trump thought he needed a black man in that job. He had no expertise in that area and never applied himself or cared enough to learn.
I recall a satirical story, I think by Andy Borowitz, that brain surgeons all over the country were relieved by that hire, and Carson’s lack of performance. Why? They no longer felt pressured to prove they were smart!
That said, I think "incuriosity" is one of the most damning traits.
I had several problems with George W. Bush as president but my biggest concern going in to his presidency was his lack of curiosity about the many subjects he'd have to face as president. Though i did not vote for his Dad, at least he was experienced in many areas of government and business. But Carson was and is a complete joke. I remember, at a Congressional hearing, Katie Porter raised something about which Carson knew nothing and he asked her to come by HUD to tell them what she was discussing. This was like 3 years in to his tenure and he was clueless and not trying to learn anything other than about the cost of tables for his taxpayer-paid office.
Interesting. Dubya is precisely who I was thinking of when I wrote that last sentence. To this day, I don’t think he was an evil man, nor, as far as I can discern, did he have a racist bone in his body. But he was damnably incurious, and he delegated authority to some truly bad people, including of course Cheney and Rumsfeld. Nonetheless, for some reason I’d rate Dubya as a human being higher than Carson.
And, a hopeful idea from Jennifer Rubin -- while we want a carve to the filibuster rule for abortion, it might be a strategy for Harris to talk about using it first for a border bill. Let's see what the response to that would be.
I'd like reproductive rights, voting rights, and all other rights the scotus has taken away to be filibuster-proof. We need a full-court press; make maga GOP explain why they don't want voting to be easy and more accessible.
I think that point she made was extremely smart. I think the carve out for the border bill will be a very strong move. Personally I think they should just get rid of the filibuster altogether in the process, but framing it in terms of the border bill, which everyone will support, is very smart politics.
Kamala is masterful on our convoluted border challenges. I learned a lot, and I realized how shallow our media have been in reporting this issue. We all must carry this robust resolution to every voter we meet in the next 30+ days. Canvassing Sunday in MI and cannot wait!
Okay! I just gave my Closing Strong donation to the 15 House candidates, North Carolina, and the NE Blue dot (with a little extra for Will Rollins -- Go, Will!). (I've held back my last gasp donation for Harris/Walz--I'll be giving that on the Oct. 2nd VP debate day, in support of Tim Walz!)
I've got my plan in place!
I've signed up for phonebanking and will increase that as we move into October.
Our household has been postcarding with Field Team 6, registering Dems in North Carolina. (Close to 1000 postcards written and sent!) After we pass that Oct. 4th deadline for registering voters in NC, we'll focus on postcarding to GOTV.
And of course we've signed up for more postcarding Thursdays with the Hopium Community. (I've also got a textbanking sign up on my calendar, in a few weekends!)
Lots of opportunities out there to do more, to fight for our democracy, and to win!
OMG, I just did exactly the same thing re donations! With the little extra for Will! Meeting him in person got me even more invested, he’s so direct, open and committed. Polling shows him a tiny single-point behind and we’ve got to push our voters over that line.
And am holding bk last gasp for 9/30!!
Just got my next batch of Blue Wave cards and will dive into them today!
We have our own Democratic Party of Evanston here. Daily phone banking and weekend canvassing in Wisconsin. Overnight canvassing trips to Michigan are planned. We also have button-making and postcard parties. The City of Chicago has a similar groups. Julie would know about these groups.
Rosemary, a swing that large is simply not credible. Jonathan Swan is a paid journalist, whom is tasked with maintaining the credibility that his bosses fight for, and that is the NYT. The have by and large christened themselves the sole dispenser of truth, often sneering at anything or anyone whom questions them. Remember, this paper has a loyalty to something other than Democrats or Republicans: rage clickbait. The Times, history and prestige be damned, is a for profit entity, and their allegiance is to $ first and foremost, even if it means fucking with people's heads. Don't let them do that to yours either!
In September, Trump lost 14 points in freaking Iowa, high-quality large-sample polls showed us that Kamala is up 30 points with young voters, the debate happened, and Florida became competitive. There was no 43-point swing toward Trump in Wisconsin. It's horseshit. But what infuriates me is that we'll never get an explanation about why their polls are so weird. Jonathan Swan will never be asked what he was talking about when he said this massive unexplained swing in the youth vote lined up with Republican internal polling. Despite their general worthlessness, the NYT's polls will continue to drive the news cycle just as if they were the most accurate polls of all time. When you get that big, you no longer have to compete and you are not held to the same basic expectations of quality that everyone else is. Infuriating.
Here in Missouri its been 42 days since Sen. Josh Hawley has appeared at a public event. 100% of his ads are negative, attacking Lucas Kunce. Hawley is not releasing any of his internal polls. Hawley is a runner alright and he's running scared.
VIBES INTO VOTES: The Recipe for CLOSING STRONG!
It’s happening! Americans are voting – more than 419,000 people have voted so far! Professor Michael McDonald of the University of Florida and his Election Project are keeping tabs on the Early Vote, just as he has in many recent elections. (Nitter is a way to access Tweets.)
https://nitter.poast.org/ElectProject
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Tom Bonier and Simon will have much more to say about the Early Vote later. So far, Virginia accounts for the majority, more than 260,000 of which 213,000 are In-Person Votes.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-virginia/
Party registration data is available for some states (CA, CO, CT, DC, FL, IA, ID, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NC, OR, PA, RI and SD). The very-early signals are good for Democrats, and you can follow the development state-by-state. First, three swing states:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/
Other states:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-colorado/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-new-jersey/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-maryland/
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-iowa/
Full court press. Registration push meets GOTV. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
Still waiting for commentary about who are "likely" to vote. IMHO boucoups more Dems than Reps. More women than men. More Gen Z than expected.
Reprise: "Today, there are about 91 million Americans who have voted for Biden and House Democrats since 2016, and about 83 million who have voted for Trump or House Republicans. If this pool of voters votes that way again, and if they constitute 80 percent of those voting in 2024 (a fairly conservative assumption), then the other 20 percent of voters would have to favor Trump by 18 points for him to overcome that deficit." Podheizer.
October surprise? https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-facing-karma-jack-smith-case-glenn-kirschner-1960724
Glenn Kirschner is a very wise and perceptive legal expert - hope his expectations about this case are right.
Fascinating. Just I was interested in monitoring. Thank you!
Excellent -- thank you
Thx thx thx for the updates and the links!!
We took Kamala's amazing Border Security speech and added Spanish subtitles. Also see how captions in any language can be added to a video.
https://thedemlabs.org/2024/09/28/how-to-caption-videos-in-different-languages-learn-how-with-kamala-harris-border-speech/
1, Trump is the poster boy for employer sanctions -- fined for hiring illegals on his job sites.
2. He uses temporary work visas to hire foreign workers to displace US citizens and residents at his resort properties.
3. He pardoned Bannon for scamming suckers who contributed to the Mexican wall project.
Great idea!
That's amazing, thank you!!!
It’s about turnout at this point. That’s it. If turnout is close to the heavy-GOP NYT model, Trump very well could eke out a victory. If it’s closer to the majority of most other pollsters, Harris likely wins with over 300 EVs.
Let’s make the NYT wrong. Let’s drive enthusiasm. Stay loud. I meant it…. STAY LOUD! Stay positive.
P.S. - For Simon and the other folks who get a kick out of the GOP narrative pollsters, check out Robert Cahaly’s (Trafalgar) recent twitter post. He essentially admits he is about to flood the zone with a bunch of bullshit polls. That asshole has no shame.
150% correct about Cahaly. He's a shameless tool, whom will DO ANYTHING to replicate the 15 minutes of fame he gained in 2016. It's been quite fun watching him trying to explain himself in all subsequent election post mortems. However, as you say, deep down, he knows he's full of shit.
I remember Cahaly predicting that Lee Zeldin would win an upset victory for NY-GOV because “people he knew” told him that they were voting for Zeldin but afraid to admit it because New York is so blue. “My hairdresser’s cousin told me that she is voting for Lee Zeldin but isn’t going to admit it and there are DOZENS of us! DOZENS!”
This was in “New York” magazine which I get because I get the bundle of Apple newsstand media. (In case anyone wonders why a Californian gives a toot!)
And you know and I know what happened. Yes, Zeldin cut it closer than expected for New York, but he lost. Hochul won. Cahaly got egg on his face. Bet you he’s about to wind up egged again.
LFG, Team!!!!! All gas!!!!!
I've been texting/FBing/telling everyone I know to do three things: 1) Make sure all the young people in their lives are registered and voting and that their friends are registered and voting and 2) make a list of all people they know in the battlegrounds who are Pro-Harris and reach out to them to VOTE ASAP and tell them to tell all their networks the same!
And have them make sure they are still registered. It was reported on MSNBC yesterday that 747,000 were removed from the voter rolls in NC. I am going to add a little note to my postcards reminding them to check their voter registration status, just to be on the safe side.
Don’t forget about us here in Florida!!
I’m contributing to Debbie Murcasall Powers today before the deadline!!
Even Nate Silver is bullish on Dems in Florida, and especially Murcasel-Powell:
"Florida polls have gradually tightened to the point where it's at least an interesting decision for Harris HQ on whether to invest there. ROI on presidential race not so great, but you also get a puncher's chance of winning the Senate race."
So is Christopher Bouzy.
Yes! Christopher Bouzy is the one I follow on Florida. Love his online sparring with Evan Power, Chair of the Florida Republican Party. And as you know, Bouzy is convinced that Kamala Harris wins Florida.
https://nitter.poast.org/cbouzy/
On election night, North Carolina and Florida being called early for Harris is my dream scenario. Check mate!
Makes my stomach nervous but excited!
I think Florida will be called early for VP Harris. I've been paying attention. It's my home state and I still have family there. Michael Steele thinks NC, GA and FL all go blue this year. When Doug Emhoff is visiting the Villages, and they open TWO field offices in Jax, obviously the campaign thinks like I do. In conclusion, go Gators.
You warm my heart!
My heart will burst with joy! So great. :-)
I will dance out in the street if that happens!!!!!
This would make my entire year. I would love to hear FL called early for Harris. And tune in to the flies on the walls at Mar-A-Lago dodging Heinz bottles.
Perhaps we really should build that wall Little Donald has been screaming about – but around Mar-a-Lago.
Yes, I heard him talk about that. Bouzy called it, says IA and OH are "tossup." WOW.
As I read this comment I am knocking on my wooden side table. I have connections to two states that have broken my heart mightily in recent years. I was born in Florida & raised in Ohio ( I live in neither today). I am saying to myself ' Oh Florida, do you have it in you do the right (left) thing? Can you do what Ohio likely won't?!' Again knocking on my wooden side table. Back to postcards for me as I do my damndest to keep calm and campaign on....
If it makes you feel better, Jarrod, just think of the tens of millions that the Republicans will have to spend to defend Florida. That unexpected campaign expenditure may allow Sherrod Brown to keep his seat in OH. Glass half full.
Thanks for the nitter link! Just spent some time reading Bouzy's comebacks. So delicious. I keep remembering the night of the '22 GA senate race, thinking we'd lost and going to bed dejected, then waking up to a win and now we're 51-49...so I'm back to hopeful about FL, TX (and who knows about MO), along with MT and OH. Maybe I'm heady, but at this time, in this place, I'm feeling anything is possible!!!
Michael Steele predicts FL and NC flip for Harris. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4894389-michael-steele-predicts-harris-victory/
!!!! Wow 🙏🏻
VPOTUS’ move reminiscent of Tom Suozzi forcefully taking on the border to great effect:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/09/new-york-democrats-border-fight-00140588
Simon, it was disgusting what the lede/chyron at Faux said about her while covering this speech….
“Pretends to care….”
“Fix border she destroyed “
“15,000 illegals roaming free committing crimes “
Deplorable!!!
Fox viewers are NOT Dem voters. Don’t fret about that mess of messages. Parroting Putin’s puppet.
A disgrace.
This was a very powerful speech and I think it hit all the points she needed to make regarding the border. NOW it is up to each of us to do something every day if possible, to see that she is elected. Do NOT be overly confident, you KNOW the assignment.
It's not just that it was a superb speech. Kamala showed great COMPASSION toward the people in the room, and oozed experience and understanding of the intricacies of the issue. Yet, she also knew how to FIX IT. No headliner slogan. Real issues. Real people. Real solutions.
We don't need another fake "magician entertainer."
What - you mean we can’t just “ build a wall”? lol!
That was a phenomenal speech. I’m in awe of her grasp of the issues and the complexity and nuance of her solutions. Blue up and down the ballot so she can get the job done!
S/O to Simon for his long term investment in the blue dot! The gravy on that biscuit is that NE-2 is also a pretty good suburban bellwether and her polling lead there is a very, very, very positive sign.
Seems Dan Osborn's pretty even with Deb Fischer, too (for senate).
The margin in that poll was better than I expected. That supports your view that it may portend well for Harris in other areas.
It's awesome to see and hear from Julie! I'm a college professor who just has a passion for social justice (I teach DEI) and therefore American politics. I am so in awe of the work that political campaign organizers do - it looks like you'd have to be superhuman to pull this off! I'm quite sure I don't have the energy to do what you do, but I'm thrilled to support the campaign in multiple ways (thanks, Simon) and to cheer your hard work and skill in getting Kamala and Tim elected. Major major props to Julie and her staff!
I've been seeing a lot of punditry lately saying Harris needs to grab more attention. But what if the most effective part of her campaign is flying under the radar and is this painstaking ground game? No, not getting headlines every day. But the campaign is meeting voters every day, all over. Hearing that Gwen Walz is driving door to door in R country, in a swing state - well, that's just wonderful and so encouraging. If the Harris campaign is as fine-tuned as they seem, it's very...hopium.
Ah, the pundits. Bless their hearts.
Some of these old school heart-blessed pundits don't get that the media game has moved to Tik Tok. My sense is that old school TV news and online "newspapers" is not where the action is. At all.
Well, by that measure I must be an antiquated, even archaic web user.
Not only have I never been on TikTok or Instagram, I never even signed up for Facebook. Why not? I recall looking into it in its infancy, recognizing Mark Zuckerberg’s Facebook as an absolutely ingenious data-mining operation – and deciding never to feed it.
Hopium and the forums of a now-defunct livestream chess site is the closest I’ve come to social media.
Hah!
There's pride in existing comfortably within one's demographic. I don't use Tik Tok, I just read about it!
And I am glad I discovered Nitter as a way to see Tweets, with joining Xitter/Twitter/X.
https://nitter.poast.org/
She is doing the best work! Get out and talk to real people! THE VOTERS!
Media just want to get "exclusives" and muddy up everyone's minds (waste our time, but make $$$).
Heard Dan Froomkin IIRC say that maybe they just don't realize they are not so relevant anymore.
Pundit. Comes from the Sanskrit paṇḍita, originally. It used to mean someone who was educated in the traditional branches of Indian learning. Now it seems to be a synonym for "clown."
But what if the most effective part of her campaign is flying under the radar...
⬆️
One thing that IMO is flying under the radar wrt the punditry is the Democratic grassroots enthusiasm.
Back in 2016, canvassing and local phone banking were pretty much the entire game for volunteers. If you didn't live in a swing state or near a swing district then sending $$ to candidates was your only option. But Trump's inauguration and the subsequent Women's March lit a fire that is still going strong.
Covid forced the Democrats to get creative in advance of the 2020 election and the numbers of people writing postcards/letters and phonebanking remotely exploded! Grassroots activism was no longer constrained geographically.
And grassroots groups realized that with postcards and letters activism no longer was limited to "just in time" activism to have the most impact. People could pace themselves writing to other voters and then simply mail the fruits of their efforts out at the optimum time!
And then of course came the Dobbs decision. Two years later, I still find it mindblowing that the GOP patriarchy thought that it would blow over quickly! It seems to me that the energy and momentum just keeps on building!
I'm in NC and we are just hitting what used to be the time of year that canvassing and phone banking geared up. But we've been going strong since March here! And if we can get the Vote on Day 1 message out for our reliabe base, I think we have the real potential to reach those voters who have been ignored in past elections.
Kent, in the context of Trump, "DEI hires" are putting Don Jr, Eric and Ivanka in positions of power.
The ultimate DEI hire was Ben Carson who only got the job because Trump thought he needed a black man in that job. He had no expertise in that area and never applied himself or cared enough to learn.
I recall a satirical story, I think by Andy Borowitz, that brain surgeons all over the country were relieved by that hire, and Carson’s lack of performance. Why? They no longer felt pressured to prove they were smart!
That said, I think "incuriosity" is one of the most damning traits.
I had several problems with George W. Bush as president but my biggest concern going in to his presidency was his lack of curiosity about the many subjects he'd have to face as president. Though i did not vote for his Dad, at least he was experienced in many areas of government and business. But Carson was and is a complete joke. I remember, at a Congressional hearing, Katie Porter raised something about which Carson knew nothing and he asked her to come by HUD to tell them what she was discussing. This was like 3 years in to his tenure and he was clueless and not trying to learn anything other than about the cost of tables for his taxpayer-paid office.
Interesting. Dubya is precisely who I was thinking of when I wrote that last sentence. To this day, I don’t think he was an evil man, nor, as far as I can discern, did he have a racist bone in his body. But he was damnably incurious, and he delegated authority to some truly bad people, including of course Cheney and Rumsfeld. Nonetheless, for some reason I’d rate Dubya as a human being higher than Carson.
And, a hopeful idea from Jennifer Rubin -- while we want a carve to the filibuster rule for abortion, it might be a strategy for Harris to talk about using it first for a border bill. Let's see what the response to that would be.
Interesting! Then:
– Reproductive rights including Abortion, IVF and Contraception
– John Lewis Voting Rights Act & the Freedom To Vote Act
– Automatic voter registration; make purging legitimate voters a federal crime...
– Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico
– Reversal of Citizens United
Whoa! Fantastic. If we dream it, it will come! ❤️🇺🇸
– Reproductive rights including Abortion, IVF and Contraception
– Reversal of Citizens United
– John Lewis Voting Rights Act & the Freedom To Vote Act
– Automatic voter registration; make purging legitimate voters a federal crime...
– Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico
Can we just get rid of the filibuster altogether???
I'd like reproductive rights, voting rights, and all other rights the scotus has taken away to be filibuster-proof. We need a full-court press; make maga GOP explain why they don't want voting to be easy and more accessible.
I think that point she made was extremely smart. I think the carve out for the border bill will be a very strong move. Personally I think they should just get rid of the filibuster altogether in the process, but framing it in terms of the border bill, which everyone will support, is very smart politics.
Yes, exactly the point. This is a chess move to corner the Repubs into a move on "their" issue. Then we can deal with the rest of what we hold dear.
Kamala is masterful on our convoluted border challenges. I learned a lot, and I realized how shallow our media have been in reporting this issue. We all must carry this robust resolution to every voter we meet in the next 30+ days. Canvassing Sunday in MI and cannot wait!
Okay! I just gave my Closing Strong donation to the 15 House candidates, North Carolina, and the NE Blue dot (with a little extra for Will Rollins -- Go, Will!). (I've held back my last gasp donation for Harris/Walz--I'll be giving that on the Oct. 2nd VP debate day, in support of Tim Walz!)
I've got my plan in place!
I've signed up for phonebanking and will increase that as we move into October.
Our household has been postcarding with Field Team 6, registering Dems in North Carolina. (Close to 1000 postcards written and sent!) After we pass that Oct. 4th deadline for registering voters in NC, we'll focus on postcarding to GOTV.
And of course we've signed up for more postcarding Thursdays with the Hopium Community. (I've also got a textbanking sign up on my calendar, in a few weekends!)
Lots of opportunities out there to do more, to fight for our democracy, and to win!
OMG, I just did exactly the same thing re donations! With the little extra for Will! Meeting him in person got me even more invested, he’s so direct, open and committed. Polling shows him a tiny single-point behind and we’ve got to push our voters over that line.
And am holding bk last gasp for 9/30!!
Just got my next batch of Blue Wave cards and will dive into them today!
Love all in this Hopium community!!!!!!
We have our own Democratic Party of Evanston here. Daily phone banking and weekend canvassing in Wisconsin. Overnight canvassing trips to Michigan are planned. We also have button-making and postcard parties. The City of Chicago has a similar groups. Julie would know about these groups.
You're amazing, thank you!!!!
The NYT WI shows a 43 pt swing to Trump among the youth vote over the last month. Harris was +25 among youth voters in Augusts and is now -18.
That’s absurd. The poll should have never been released..
The Times polling can no longer be taken seriously after this round of battleground polls.
Seriously - are they collaborating with Trafalgar ?! lol
Jonathan Swan said the poll tracks with Republican internal polling so it’s not out of the question.
Republican internal polling is not something anyone can take seriously as data
They lie about everything
Right? I think that's what I was trying to underscore re: Trafalgar comment.
Rosemary, a swing that large is simply not credible. Jonathan Swan is a paid journalist, whom is tasked with maintaining the credibility that his bosses fight for, and that is the NYT. The have by and large christened themselves the sole dispenser of truth, often sneering at anything or anyone whom questions them. Remember, this paper has a loyalty to something other than Democrats or Republicans: rage clickbait. The Times, history and prestige be damned, is a for profit entity, and their allegiance is to $ first and foremost, even if it means fucking with people's heads. Don't let them do that to yours either!
I think we're saying the same thing: I'm not buying it. It feels click baitey
In September, Trump lost 14 points in freaking Iowa, high-quality large-sample polls showed us that Kamala is up 30 points with young voters, the debate happened, and Florida became competitive. There was no 43-point swing toward Trump in Wisconsin. It's horseshit. But what infuriates me is that we'll never get an explanation about why their polls are so weird. Jonathan Swan will never be asked what he was talking about when he said this massive unexplained swing in the youth vote lined up with Republican internal polling. Despite their general worthlessness, the NYT's polls will continue to drive the news cycle just as if they were the most accurate polls of all time. When you get that big, you no longer have to compete and you are not held to the same basic expectations of quality that everyone else is. Infuriating.
Carville was saying something similar last week. He just said private polls. My answer would be so what?
But if I'm not mistaken, Carville still thinks Harris will win
I actually have not heard him say that, now that you mention it. But I tend to shut him off.
Are we talking about the polls listed within this article?
I think they are
Here in Missouri its been 42 days since Sen. Josh Hawley has appeared at a public event. 100% of his ads are negative, attacking Lucas Kunce. Hawley is not releasing any of his internal polls. Hawley is a runner alright and he's running scared.
Thank you, Simon. I am working for Kamala and Tim and Dems, not freaking out 😁