If I were Garland, I'd grant Bannon immunity and bring him to a grand jury and force him to testify re Jan 5 and 6, 2021. Civil coercive contempt could jail him until he sings. No 5th Amendment rights. He was granted a pardon for his crimes re theft of funds from the Mexico wall project, but I'd ask him about how he got that pardon.
True, but his far-right acolytes (I sometimes refer to them as the Alt-Reich) have long been beyond our reach. They are not the ones we are trying to communicate with and convince.
You can bet that happened during the initial investigations. Bannon is serious about leading our country into autocracy and being one of the leaders when that happens. He is a master of propaganda — the American version of Goebbels. He openly brags about how he successfully “hacks” the mainstream media, getting them to publish his lies. As he rightly says it’s the mainstream media that does the real damage to Democrats and he knows how to manipulate them.
Wrong. No FBI interview. DOJ did not force him to a grand jury. Jail is for refusal to comply with the House.
He has the same kind of pathological grandiosity that puts people away as a threat to themselves or others. In essence, he has a very limited following. Also will be jailbait in NY state court.
The first people who should have been investigated were those who asked for pardons. Those who got them waive their 5th amendment rights. If they lie -- perjury. If they refuse to cooperate -- civil coercive contempt.
Navarro was not indicted on the merits. He wrote a book implicating dozens in a conspiracy. Trump may have immunity, but it does not extend to most of the conspirators.
Had I been AG, the first prosecutions would have been against the henchmen.
That Bannon interview is TERRIFYING! Thank you for posting. He claims Trump is kind hearted and moderate and just wait to see what real MAGA is going to enact. No compromise, it is win at all costs.
Joe Biden’s strength is in resilience. He will tell you when he is not up to the job. You know that he will access himself correctly, and you know you can count on his word. I am on the Biden wagon with banners in each hand. I have no space leftover for handwringing, and I don’t accord any respect for handwringers.
You make me happy with this posting. I never did handwringing, I'm angry at having my rights taken away. The media just doesn't understand American women. We will show up, even if the media thinks we're all home in fainting fits or deep in despair.
Agree 100%. I verbally sparred with some handwringing bedwetters on Substack the past couple days, and their MO is to feign indignation that I’m not letting them share their thoughts and feelings, and that I shouldn’t be challenging them. I’ve come to believe that these types are just as narcissistic as TFG, in a different way. And I have no time for them, other than to tell them why I disagree with them.
I'm sure some are narcissists who need you to agree with their genius hot takes. I also believe that others are just deeply frightened. You standing strong will make a difference with those people over time. Joe is such a threat to MAGA that they will use any means necessary to scare the crap out of people to make him lose.
I think that many of them need to talk to a therapist, or at least a close and trusted friend/s. Trauma dumping and cries for reassurance (or, agreement) in a forum filled with strangers-on-the-Internet just demoralizes the audience, and creates distractions from what needs to be done.
To comment on the Hopium fundraising: I think that the Democrats, since 2016, have built a really strong grassroots. Not just communities like Hopium, and VoteDem, and even Daily Kos (much as I find a lot of the diaries not to my taste), but all the postcarding, letter writing, text banking, etc. opportunities. I like that even living as I do in a very blue district in a blue state, I can still write postcards for Adam Gray and Will Rollins in swingier CA districts and hope that my little efforts and those of others add up.
At least in the ideal, we have a *participatory* democracy and the grassroots is a good part of it. I think that the grassroots we have built has been key to our successes since 2018. Fire Howard Dean, will ya? Ha, ha, we can make our own “50 state strategy!” It takes time, effort, and patience, but we are doing it.
Oh, Howard!!!! My mom passed away a couple of years ago at age 89. She was involved in the League of Women Voters and progressive politics for more than 60 years. Howard Dean was mom's absolute favorite!!!! My parents made it through the Great Depression and WW2 where my dad served in the US Navy. Now it is our time to save democracy. And this will be our finest hour.
I was furious when the media made such a big deal about Dean’s scream after he had won a primary. People in the audience didn’t think anything of it because he was yelling over the noise of his enthusiastic supporters which was anything but crazy. It is insane to take one incidence and use it to portray a candidate as unfit/crazy.
I think most of their feelings are valid and sympathetic, but the discussion (when its civil) is good. Arguments we practice here can be taken out into the world.
I am furious at all the pundits in the media loudly calling for Biden to resign without even considering the fact that they want the votes of millions of us in the primaries to be invalidated. I am sick of the media acting like they are the ones who know best.
I suspect some of them are just looking forward to being able to return to one of their favorite storylines — silly Democrats in disarray. They know a fight for a new nominee would be brutal just like it was in ‘68. I honestly can’t think of anyone who is well known enough to step in now. Most people have no clue who people Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsome, etc. are. Heck most have no clue what Harris has been doing as VP because the media has refused until recently to cover things like her impressive foreign trips. Getting a new candidate and attempting building up support for them now is really risky.
That ad is so excellent! Truly heartwarming – it brought tears to my eyes.
Yes, we all wish that had been the President Biden we saw on debate night, but it wasn’t. But by God, this ad is a powerful rebuttal!
Let the focus now shift to Trump’s lies and gaslighting and his outrageous plans for a second term, for which the terrifying, autocratic "Project 2025" is the blueprint.
Jamelle Bouie, a NYT writer I like, pointed out something that I also noticed: while the media and the punditry can’t stop talking about Biden’s performance and whether he should drop out, the topic that has dominated TikTok and other social media is when Trump said “Immigrants are pouring into this country and coming to take Black jobs.” The racism and pure insanity of TRUMP’S performance is what people are making memes and content about, not Biden. Jamelle Bouie’s point is that while the media is breathlessly talking about Biden’s performance, the resonant parts from the debate with voters is the unhinged things Trump said.
Biden had a disappointing performance, but Trump was unhinged and scary. The media isn’t calling it out, but a whole lot of voters are. We’ve been waiting for the wandering parts of our coalition to come back, and I think Trump is helping bring some of them back.
I agree. Jamelle Bouie is great. And I’m glad to hear that the conversation among ordinary non-pundit people is not “Biden OLD” but “Trump is a racist and also a pants on fire liar.”
Is there a way to follow him if I’m not on other social platforms? My short stint in FB years ago cured me of my curiosity of all that. It made me so sad and disappointed by so many people. Unless Substack conversations count. I like it here.
Historian Heather Cox Richardson has an insightful commentary about the history behind Trump’s racist trope. The idea of "Black jobs" and "Latino jobs" – and before that, jobs found suitable only for the Irish, Italian and Poles (none of whom were originally considered "properly white" – that idea is the very cornerstone to a very different society. A society in which "all men are NOT created equal"!
Heather Cox Richardson is terrific. My friend just turned me onto her. I watched her Facebook today. I am not on Facebook but I could still see it. It was about 22 minutes long.
I usually start my morning with a cup of coffee and her newsletter, "Letters from an American", to which I have subscribed for years. On hard-pressed days when I have to choose between Heather and the news, I almost invariably choose Heather.
I have given through Hopium and had shared your outlook on Biden until June 27th. I agree that Biden has been a remarkably good president and would continue to govern well in a second term. Nonetheless, I am convinced that any other plausible Democrat could make the case for the success of his presidency and the danger Trump poses better than he could that night. It was not like Obama's bad first debate against Romney that the 2012 Biden helped him repair by demolishing Paul Ryan a week later, it was an utter catastrophe. Outside the Hopium community, I do not see any possibility now that Democrats will come out of their presidential convention expecting to win.
There is no disgrace in retiring from public life in one's eighties. I would like to see Biden lionized at the upcoming convention and remembered later as only man, as he very likely was, who could beat Trump and repair much of the damage Trump had done,. I would hate to see him renominated by a demoralized part and remembered not the man who let Trump come far worse than he was the first time by insisted on running again.
Have you seen the huge numbers the Biden-Harris campaign raised this weekend, post-debate? Or all their new volunteers? That was from mostly outside the Hopium community. Many were first time donors.
“… while we can debate our future as a party, the campaign goes on. Money has to be raised, events planned, ads cut, arguments made, canvassing organized, calls made. Early voting starts in ten weeks. The campaign goes on. We cannot let up for one minute. For we are not fighting for Joe Biden, or any one candidate. We are fighting each day for our democracy, our freedom, our future. We are fighting, each day, for all of us.”
If you are in MD then you are well placed to help out in person in PA, VA and even NC — and all these states need it. This community can help point you in good directions! Or consider all you can do to take action from home!!
Joseph, If Biden drops out there is no clear candidate the Democrats can unite around in the limited time left to election. If the Republicans can unite around a serial liar, convicted fraudster, liable for defamation for a sexual assault, an insurrectionist who wants to destroy democracy and end any restrictions on corporate power and destroy Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, then I think we can give Joe Biden the benefit of the doubt and rally around a successful president who wants a just, fair and democratic America.
I suspect that if Biden announced his choice of successor and other party leaders endorsed that person it would be much like 2020.
I think Dem voters are looking to leadership guidance and the answer we are currently getting don't worry, but telling someone do not worry is rarely effective.
Edit: I will just say if the answer is hold the course they need a show not tell offensive that Thursday was indeed a fluke.
No way Josh. Biden gave a speech the next day and he was fine. We just had the Supreme Court rule that as long as it's an "official act" the president has absolute immunity. He can literally order Field Team 6 to murder his opponents and have no criminal consequences. That is absolutely insane. You're attacking Biden at this point puts you on the side of the extremists who are trying to destroy our democracy. It's time you pick which side you're on.
Peter, I am not trying to be argumentative and frankly nothing I said was an attack on President Biden. I simply stated that the party's current message is literally some version of chill out or we are stuck with lemons. Neither is a good answer to a nervous coalition. Both are terrible sales pitches. If you are not following it up with lemonade. One good speech watched by 1/100th of the audience does not negate his performance on Thursday.
By the way I am only saying President Biden has room to choose a successor should he need to and he should be honest about the countries concerns around his age. The debate was supposed to relieve those concerns not heighten them.
Again, his opponent is certifiably crazy and Biden is the only way to stop this mad man from being our dictator January, the absolute burden is on you to show why Biden shouldn't be the nominee, not on us trying desperately to avoid a Trump dictatorship.
Peter you are coming with a lot of priors and assumptions about my position on this. I will back president Biden on whatever decision he makes, but if he makes the decision to continue with the race they really need to do something unlike what they have done before specifically designed to reassure the public.
In my minds eye I think something like a Joe and Jill Biden interview with Opera, or comparable interviewer, where among other things they spend 5 or 6 minutes on if he is still capable of serving (which I believe him to be able to do) and show he understands why people are concerned.
It is beyond belief to me that Joe Biden who is the great empathizer to the American people could in good conscious continue on the current course. It is also hard to understand why you would accuse me of being for Trump. This is a closed community of Democrats. I am not posting this on facebook or telling every independent voter I see. I am relaying the issues I have been having when I knock doors and speak with my neighbors.
Josh, no one on this dialog is suggesting that you support T, only that the effect of Biden withdrawing his name from nomination would be to hand the election to T. It's the practicality of the process and the absence of any replacement : how would the replacement happen, step by step, what candidates are available to replace him - you're saying Joe Biden would decide on the candidate, there's still the process of making that person known. And what happens to the Kamala part of the partnership? voters have already voted for Biden in primaries - what about the sense of betrayal.? Study carefully what happened in 1968; ppl say perfunctorily 'dems are united now' but that is not pertinent. dem voters at the time voted overwhelmingly for an anti Vietnam War candidate, beginning with Eugene McCarthy (MN senator), then once the McCarthy campaign got things going, RFK entered the primaries as well (after initially deferring). I.e. voters spoke in the primaries. But [LBJ] swapped in Humphrey for himself, a fine progressive, of course well known (solving that problem) but pro-war. That did not work out well.
I'm weighing in here because I responded some on the topic over the past 2 days. Personally, I think Biden will hold it together through the next term and I value his experience, his foreign policy knowledge and his facility with the congress and I don't see anyone out there who could step in and do what we need both domestically and in the foreign policy arena on day 1.
Well, in the stepping aside scenario, I have no reason to suspect he would choose anyone other than Vice President Harris. I think she is qualified, and capable and I think people would like the contrast between her and both President Biden and Trump. If for whatever reason he chose another candidate he would need buy-in from the other official and unofficial party leaders VP Harris included. No doubt.
But more than anything after 2020 and every conversation I have with people stems down to two thing, people voting for Biden largely do not want Trump back, and are willing to make the most strategic choice to get there.
The problem is that the debate was supposed to be an opportunity for President Biden to clear a relatively low bar, and he failed. The rest of the campaign is now about clearing that bar.
But sit with your answer to me for a moment. Every response to why President Biden should say in is some version of "don't have your very understandable worry," or "tough luck we are stuck." Neither address the concern. I am mostly looking for a different answer from the leaders of the party, Biden included. I do not think there a possibility the nomination is taken from him, but if he decided to give it up I do not think the public would not penalize the ticket. If he stays in, there needs to be a course correction and a legitimate non dismissive high profile addressing of the age issue.
Not sure you can look at 1968 as an example of what could happen today. The world, our country and the Democratic Party have changed remarkably in the last 56 years.
It is my understanding that there are all sorts of logistics involved in having Biden step down - even with everyone on board. It would be a disaster even under the best case scenario of everyone rallying around the new nominee, joining hands and singing Kumbaya. The only winners in this scenario would be Trump, the Republicans, the Media and say hello to Project 2025.
Who is this mythic candidate that Biden and the entire Democratic convention will rally behind? I mean seriously, name the person and then please tell me how that person wins with no campaign staff, no money, no strategic plan, no field offices, no media buys, no ads, no printed materials.
That stuff doesn’t just automatically transfer over from the Biden Harris campaign. The new person would be starting from scratch. In July. As a candidate chosen not by the people, but by the party.
I really don’t see how that’s a more likely path to victory.
The NYT sucks along with the Wash Post and these blowhard pundits on cable networks. I have been disgusted by the NYT and Wash Post ever since they hounded President Bill Clinton during the 1990s over “Whitewater”, of which they were completely exonerated later on. They ridiculously called for Bill Clinton to resign after that stupid Monica affair. The NYT then largely pushed us into the Iraq invasion when they published that false article on the front page-above the fold: Saddam Hussein Has Weapons Of Mass Destruction., written by Judith Miller. Which turned out to be a lie. Then, they never shut up about “Hillary’s emails” in 2016, a non-issue invented by the media and the GQP which helped fatally damage her (among other reasons but this surely hurt). This current fiasco is even more reason for me to detest the NYT. They have shown themselves for a very long time, that they are dishonest and detached from reality. I hope a lot more folks cancel their subscriptions to them. I would except I purposefully never had one, for the long time reasons I stated.
Cindy, I've unsubscribed several times (online) and was offered $0.99/mo for a year, which I accepted most recently, because I like a couple of their opinion columnists. If you're an online subscriber, you might get that offer.
I doubt it bc I paid for the year. By the way their subscription price went way up. I love Jonathan Capehart and I really like E.J Dionne, Eugene Robinson and George Will. Just kidding. Can't stand George Will.
The media are profit, click & attention driven are will do anything to ensure they get those clicks - even playing with people's emotions like that. Biden is not dropping out and if he did that would ensure a loss on our side. Pitiful
Let us remember: In 2016, the NYT’s monomanic focus on "Hillary’s emails", combined with their virtually-zero focus on issues and policy, played a decisive role in handing the election to Donald J. Trump.
I’ll never be able to forgive A.G. Sulzberger and his father for their despicable and destructive choice! And now, in 2020, Sulzberger and the NYT are again showing us their anti-democratic values.
The New York Times may see itself as "the newspaper of record" – but it is becoming "the record of America’s slide into autocracy". A dangerous slide that we must stop!
I'm optimistic that this time won't be the same in terms of their impact. There were no Substacks in 2016 - heck, there was barely a Twitter. Left-wing thinkers and strategists have a megaphone now that simply didn't exist in 2016, when the papers of record and CNN basically controlled the national conversation. My mother - hardly politically active - reads Heather Cox Richardson but doesn't read the Times and doesn't have cable.
It's not just the megaphone, though. Grassroots Dems got through all the stages together on sites like this one. We grieved, we picked each other up, we recommitted to the fight for America, and we rejected the panic-mongers. Honestly, this may be part of the reason (beyond Dobbs and MAGA) that we've been doing better with each passing year since 2021 - we have more opinions than just the pessimistic ones to listen to, and it saves us from getting too depressed or making dumb decisions (as Stuart Stevens referred to).
The tone I'm getting today from the NYT stories in the Globe and the anti-Biden camp is more "why isn't anyone listening to us?!?!?" than anything else. They failed to provoke the panic they sought (just like they failed after the Hur report back in February), and it's pissing them off.
I have been furious with NYTimes and Washington Post. I cancelled my WP subscription. The constant drumming on Biden’s flaws seems pointless unless the point is to help Trump. I was raised to believe actions speak louder than words. Biden’s actions have been mostly extraordinarily helpful and promising.
OMG and Bob Woodward needs to explain why he did not feel any moral obligation to inform the public that Trump knew Covid wasn't going away and that it was highly contagious. I bet Bob Woodward go his vaccinations. Oh wait, he waited until he could put that information in a book. AND he is on television criticizing Biden? Yeah no.
No I was pretty upset by his performance. Of course the Times can bite me for their horrible coverage but Biden and his team screwed the pooch on the debate.
The political media has developed an addiction: All they want is the next hit of clicks. They will use MAGA junk, cook up some outrage, buy it from the shadiest dealers - whatever it takes.
They don't care about the cost.
And they sure aren't going to leave Dems alone if we give them what they want (dump our nominee). They will crucify the next one, looking for the same cheap high. Imagine the clicks from taking a hero-savior down...
I’ve been surprised and saddened by how many people have been arguing that Biden should drop out of the race. Here’s something that refutes that argument.
Allan Jay Lichtman knows what he is talking about. He’s invented a scientific model for predicting the outcome of a presidential election — and since 1984, he’s only been wrong once in naming the winner.
Lichtman: “All of these pundits and pollsters and analysts that you see on all the cable channels, and the networks, have no track record in predicting elections — yet they come on and they claim that they know how this debate is going to affect the outcome of an election. They have no idea. It’s sports talk radio. It may be entertaining but there’s no scientific basis.”
CNN: “So what is the impact [of the debate], do you think?”
Lichtman: “Zero. Debates are not predictive of outcomes. Hillary Clinton won all three debates. still lost. John Kerry won all the debates. still lost. Barack Obama got trounced, 72 to 20 percent in the poll — worse than Biden — and went on to win.”
Yes, I have been following Allan Lichtman since April about his model of the keys to the White House. He said Biden dropping out would cause more important keys to drop which would make our defeat so much more likely. The last thing Biden should do is drop out.
After hearing this, I looked up lichtman’s track record. The one election he missed on was Gore v Bush. I actually think he was correct that Gore won. It was our lovely SC that handed the election to Bush. So I think his model is 100%
Yup- he’s actually 100% because Gore did win, the SC interfered.
He’s got a much better track record than any talking head, and while he doesn’t make his official prediction until October, he’s been very clear that Biden is the only candidate that can capture several needed “keys” to win.
We need to stop amplifying the calls for Biden to step away. It was one bad night—after 90+ minutes onstage with a torrent of lies, projection and gaslighting, he went on to a debate watch after party, a Waffle House, a 2 AM flight to NC, later that morning a rally in Raleigh (the biggest of the campaign yet), and then a flight to New York to celebrate a Pride event recognizing Stonewall—all within a single 24hr window!
One bad night, a cold and a lifetime trying to master a stutter—meanwhile a jury convicted felon, rapist and tax evading fraudster who, after being asked THREE times, refused to say he will accept the election’s outcome! But the only media to call for Tr*mp to step down from the race is the Philadelphia Inquirer’s editorial board…seriously, WTF?
One thing I will give MAGA & Repubs—literally the only thing—they rally around their own in moments of weakness, they don’t eat their own.
Also, Biden not only had a RECORD day of fundraising after the debate, but also RECORD volunteer sign ups.
Sometimes the corporate media and punditocracy or even our own anecdotal experiences do NOT reflect the broader reality.
No matter the spin from a media reliant on binary, conflict-driven narratives, which forces false equivalences and pushes politics as a horse race, defaulting to covering the poll-obsessed odds, rather than the existential stakes in this election (especially given MAGA Justice's above-the-law immunity ruling)—what happens next is in OUR hands.
So, keep calm and do the work that wins election—the same grassroots volunteer work that delivered our wins 2018, in 2020, and 2022.
One bad night can’t (and shouldn’t) wipe out the past three years of what is THE most consequential administration since FDR…let’s not do MAGA’s job for them by tearing our own candidate down—that effort should be directed at the two-time popular vote losing, twice impeached and 91 times criminally-indicted traitor who would be convicted of even more crimes were it not for his billionaire-bought justices delaying his day in court.
As Anat Shenker-Osorio reminds us, it’s time to stop doom scrolling and #BucktheF*ckUp!
And the Supreme Court today basically gave Trump the heads-up on immunity, gutting Jack Smith's case. One of the dissents said that basically, under this new interpretation Seal Team Six, might be allowed to target another candidate. Good God!
Yup, don't see why #KingBiden couldn't sic Seal Team Six on Tr*mp before the election—he'd be protecting the Constitution against a convicted felon lighting on fire the torn pieces that remain, now that the MAGA justices have ripped it apart.
I just wanted to thank you. I come to your posting everyday for hope. I’ve been contributing to the Biden campaign all year. I’ve never understood democrats —- republicans don’t seem to care that their candidate is a rapist and felon. But dems start handwringing after one bad night. I just don’t understand. Biden is the best president of my lifetime and I’ve been through a few.
I subscribed to the Philadelphia Inquirer yesterday after reading their powerful editorial regarding Trump. And today I canceled my subscription to The Bulwark, which I have enjoyed for quite some time because it has traditionally been a forum for smart, reasonable conservatives, and I think it’s important to see their point of view. But since Charlie Sykes left and Bill Kristol came on board, the site has gone downhill, and since the debate, Bill has been, not only on the drop – Biden bandwagon, but driving it. I have been voting Democratic for 50 years, and I’m sick and tired of Republicans telling us how to run our party. There are very good reasons the GOP has not won the popular vote in a presidential election since 1988, and they need to take care of their own house before they try to sweep ours out, along with our excellent president.
Unfortunately, Charlie Sykes is also on the drop Biden train. We have to show them that the voters want Biden. Maybe the Supreme Court ruling will galvanize Democrats, Independents and some Republicans to work for Biden's re-election in order to save our country.
Totally agree on Kristol. What a piece of shit. Telling us how to run our party. The nerve. The only ones worth anything there (on their good days) are JVL, Tim Miller, Longwell and Conway.
Good Morning Hopium Community. I have refrained from letting my own feelings about Thursdays debate color my perception and spreading fear for cathartic sake alone.
I spent the weekend with a group of people I would describe as about 12 people who cover the spectrum from Strong Dem to Weak Dem, maybe even a little maga curious, white collar and blue collar. For me it felt like a good if not great focus group of the Dem coalition. The general consensus was after the debate was everyone was more disturbed by Trump's lies and intent than worried about Biden. However, virtually everyone expressed hope Biden would step aside because they know people in their lives who did not see Trump as dangerous only strong.
I will work my hardest to ensure a Biden win if he decided to stay, but I am no longer convinced the risks of a brokered convention out weigh the risks of him staying in. The point of the early debate was to show strength and competence, and he did not do so on Thursday.
I recognize there are those selfish enough to make a brokered or Biden Guided convention nasty and divisive, but I think this is a situation much like 2020 where the voters were more than willing to get behind a strategic choice. I am not calling for President Biden (the best president of my life) to step aside. I just want him to know that the coalition is deeply grateful for his leadership, but needs him to quickly eliminate our doubts or announce plans to hand off the reigns.
Yeah but the problem with a poll like that is largely a derivative of name ID. It is why Michelle Obama is so consistently names as potential presidential nominee even though there is no one in the country who has unambiguously stated more often they would NEVER run for president.
I am open to the notion that Biden is still the best option but the time of softball interviews is unfortunately past. They need to eliminate doubts not tell everyone there is nothing to worry about. This is a show not tell situation, because they dropped the ball.
I think Biden needs to do televised town halls. He can give more thoughtful answers without a time clock, without an opponent who gives the most shocking, outrageous replies and without moderators who do not fact check. Town halls are one-on-one one with voters which is something Joe likes to do. Ever seen his people trying to get Joe away from a rope-line? And that is, frankly, more informative to us voters than these cage matches.
Could not agree more. If he is our nominee, so be it. But, if he cannot withstand townhalls, rope lines, standard candidate stuff, then that is a concern.
Joe loves talking to voters. Maybe you misunderstood me. He loves rope lines. And, if you remember, he was one of the last people to leave at the State of the Union. I think they had to blink the lights to get him to leave. And what other President has walked a pro-union picket line? This is his Super-Power!!!
If there's anything, one thing, I've learned from following Simon (as well as Tom Bonier, and Christopher Bouzy) from way, way before the midterms—it's that polls DON'T vote.
The best prediction of future voting, is current voting, i.e., election results and funding for candidates. Polling is not the most important indicator and given who is polled, who is doing the polling, how they are polling AND especially, how the polling is reported -- polls are literally the LEAST important (and often most misleading) indicator.
Most important though, if poll shows the lead is within the margin of error for the poll's -- then clearly, the win is within the 'margin of effort'.
Just to quote my earlier comment "I think Dem voters are looking to leadership guidance and the answer we are currently getting don't worry, but telling someone do not worry is rarely effective." If indeed it is for the best it is time to prove it by quickly dispelling doubts, the speech over the weekend was a start but the Delta on audience was probably in the 10s of millions.
It is all his advisors and the senior consultants who have reassured us that the President is up to the task. Campaigning is a key part of his job, and that is where the questions lie.
Hi, Josh; I suspect that the people that 'did not see Trump as dangerous only strong' are *probably* going to vote for Trump regardless of who the Democrats offer. If they couldn't/wouldn't see the lies shrouded by his so-called strength, there's a high probability they went in to leaning Trump, or at least leaning against Biden. At least that's my judgment.
My concern is more so with those Dems or lean-Dems that watched the debate and check out because they figure it's over.
This election will be decided on the margins. It’s great that so many of us here, even in blue states like I am, are working to GOTV via letters postcards door knocking etc. thank you all for your work!!
Josh - you are right. I have been a strong Biden supporter (and appreciate his legislative successes) but Thursday's debate terrified me. It was not "one bad night" and I am angry at Biden's team for pretending we did not see what we see. I remember Obama's and Reagan's bad debates, and they were nothing like this, plus they were well ahead at the time. In the aftermath, Biden's team has had him speak with teleprompters to friendly audiences. Not speak extemporaneously to undecideds or more critical interviewers. I feel as if our country is at stake and people are worried about hurting Biden's feelings.
I have not heard one person from Biden's team or anyone else for that matter say Biden had a good debate or looked good. Maybe I missed those comments?
Well they are not worried about hurting the feelings of so many of us who still believe is Joe and the incredible team he has assembled. He really did hire “the best people”.
My small circle, which consist of die hard Dems, meh Dems, a Republican and a few former Republicans were all disappointed in the debate, scared and all of them want Biden to stay in the race. So there you go.
I want to say why this community is so important to me.
I'm not a political strategist or operative, just a person who is furious, horrified and unwilling to accept Trump/MAGA. Like so many others, probably you, I have been baffled and disgusted that any sane decent person could have ever supported Trump. I am outraged that he is treated in the media as anything but a psychopathic conman, and feeling desperate at what seems to be mass blindness and/or derangement in our society - in other words, I've felt (for years) all dressed up in fury with no place to go.
By starting this community and stepping forward as a leader, Simon gave me and thousands like me, a constructive focus for our rage and resistance - a battle plan to defend freedom now and for the future. The secret of doing more and worrying less goes to the heart of what makes the worry so paralyzing: the problem seems so enormous and overwhelming. It is especially hard on those of us who are problem solvers by temperament in our daily lives because this problem is bigger than any one of us can solve. Do more and worry less is about collective action - that every day we each take a piece of the action, a piece right sized to our resources and abilities with the end result of becoming a force greater than seemed possible.
I'm so grateful to Simon and all of you here with me. LFG!!!!!
Yes, well-stated, thank you. And I'll add, every time Simon posts an interview with a candidate, I'm reassured and impressed at how many outstanding ppl there are in the fight.
Yup-💯agree Lyn! It feels great to DO something that will be effective. And to know their are millions more like us all around the country who just need to keep rising up. I thank Simon and this community at least once a week for making a place of hope and resolve. People whose eyes are wide open to the challenges and toxicities and still prefer to unify in DOING something about it. We’re alive and fighting not overwhelmed and suppressed by the MAGA BS. 🙏🏻
I had a hellish week last week for reasons that have nothing to do with politics - death of a friend of my daughter’s who was just 29, a friend’s dog killed by a car, and a close friend was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. Then the debate. Truly the week from hell.
I am a lifelong environmental activist - more than 55 years. I have been shredded many times by policy actions that combined with personal trauma and made the world seem bleak. So I did the usual: I picked myself up and went to work. My first action Friday was to make donations via the Hopium links to the Biden campaign and the Blue dot campaign in Nebraska (I have family there.) Today, postcards. Later this week, door knocking.
Biden had a bad night last Thursday but personally, I am much more afraid of the seismic shift caused by the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Chevron principle last week. All the policies limiting pollution and God knows what just got shredded.
We need Democrats governing across the board - and an expansion of the number of seats on the court, along with ethics regulations for the Court that have really big teeth. Otherwise, the health consequences of that one ruling alone will kill millions with God knows what effects on food production and the rest of life on the planet. The good news there is the to-do list is the same as its always been. THAT I can do.
So let’s all do more, and worry less. Thank you Simon and Hopium community!
On FOX, Vivek Ramaswarmy says that the whole thing is a "well planned" plot by "Democratic insiders" to do something mean to Trump or, well...to be mean to somebody.
The Philly editorial deserves a Pulitzer. You can't be more clear than that about the danger of a second Trump presidency. Given the Rs in Congress, even without their obstructionism, Joe Biden has a phenomenal record. My vote for Biden-Harris has never wavered.
otoh I have more time to do more and worry less now that I've decided to watch only Lawrence O'Donnell.
He's the only one. What a shame msnbc has become. Katy tur is unwatchable
What happened to her? Last time I watched, she made excuses for tfg when Nancy Pelosi was on. She got defensive when Nancy called her out on it.
Thanks for sharing the great ad!
And to further encourage Biden supporters who are determined not to let Trump win in November,
please post a link to the terrifying interview David Brooks did with Steve Bannon: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/opinion/steve-bannon-trump.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20240701&instance_id=127653&nl=the-morning®i_id=83414866&segment_id=171014&te=1&user_id=e0b639caa600aed4146dc84952fa32e1
If I were Garland, I'd grant Bannon immunity and bring him to a grand jury and force him to testify re Jan 5 and 6, 2021. Civil coercive contempt could jail him until he sings. No 5th Amendment rights. He was granted a pardon for his crimes re theft of funds from the Mexico wall project, but I'd ask him about how he got that pardon.
Why bother?
Sorry, Bannon is not going to talk. Whereas imprisoning him for contempt speaks loudly!
Ouch! Corrected. Time for a second cup of coffee.
Karen, have you ever heard of "The Adulterous Bible"? This typo in the Ten Commandments almost cost the printer his life!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_Bible
Could be for life.
Actually prison just makes him a hero to his far right acolytes.
True, but his far-right acolytes (I sometimes refer to them as the Alt-Reich) have long been beyond our reach. They are not the ones we are trying to communicate with and convince.
You can bet that happened during the initial investigations. Bannon is serious about leading our country into autocracy and being one of the leaders when that happens. He is a master of propaganda — the American version of Goebbels. He openly brags about how he successfully “hacks” the mainstream media, getting them to publish his lies. As he rightly says it’s the mainstream media that does the real damage to Democrats and he knows how to manipulate them.
Wrong. No FBI interview. DOJ did not force him to a grand jury. Jail is for refusal to comply with the House.
He has the same kind of pathological grandiosity that puts people away as a threat to themselves or others. In essence, he has a very limited following. Also will be jailbait in NY state court.
The first people who should have been investigated were those who asked for pardons. Those who got them waive their 5th amendment rights. If they lie -- perjury. If they refuse to cooperate -- civil coercive contempt.
Navarro was not indicted on the merits. He wrote a book implicating dozens in a conspiracy. Trump may have immunity, but it does not extend to most of the conspirators.
Had I been AG, the first prosecutions would have been against the henchmen.
Also, with today’s SCOTUS a decision, let’s keep sharing another great Biden ad on J6.
📣 “Donald Trump Is Ready To Burn It All Down.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTEYJFs8cm0
That Bannon interview is TERRIFYING! Thank you for posting. He claims Trump is kind hearted and moderate and just wait to see what real MAGA is going to enact. No compromise, it is win at all costs.
Joe Biden’s strength is in resilience. He will tell you when he is not up to the job. You know that he will access himself correctly, and you know you can count on his word. I am on the Biden wagon with banners in each hand. I have no space leftover for handwringing, and I don’t accord any respect for handwringers.
You make me happy with this posting. I never did handwringing, I'm angry at having my rights taken away. The media just doesn't understand American women. We will show up, even if the media thinks we're all home in fainting fits or deep in despair.
It should be “assess”. lol. But you did get the point. Yay!
Gotcha, Carl. I felt your vibe!!!!!!
Very true. Thank you.
Agree 100%. I verbally sparred with some handwringing bedwetters on Substack the past couple days, and their MO is to feign indignation that I’m not letting them share their thoughts and feelings, and that I shouldn’t be challenging them. I’ve come to believe that these types are just as narcissistic as TFG, in a different way. And I have no time for them, other than to tell them why I disagree with them.
I'm sure some are narcissists who need you to agree with their genius hot takes. I also believe that others are just deeply frightened. You standing strong will make a difference with those people over time. Joe is such a threat to MAGA that they will use any means necessary to scare the crap out of people to make him lose.
I think that many of them need to talk to a therapist, or at least a close and trusted friend/s. Trauma dumping and cries for reassurance (or, agreement) in a forum filled with strangers-on-the-Internet just demoralizes the audience, and creates distractions from what needs to be done.
To comment on the Hopium fundraising: I think that the Democrats, since 2016, have built a really strong grassroots. Not just communities like Hopium, and VoteDem, and even Daily Kos (much as I find a lot of the diaries not to my taste), but all the postcarding, letter writing, text banking, etc. opportunities. I like that even living as I do in a very blue district in a blue state, I can still write postcards for Adam Gray and Will Rollins in swingier CA districts and hope that my little efforts and those of others add up.
At least in the ideal, we have a *participatory* democracy and the grassroots is a good part of it. I think that the grassroots we have built has been key to our successes since 2018. Fire Howard Dean, will ya? Ha, ha, we can make our own “50 state strategy!” It takes time, effort, and patience, but we are doing it.
I completely agree. We’re building a movement, and we’ve got a lot of really dynamic, excellent state party chairs.
Oh, Howard!!!! My mom passed away a couple of years ago at age 89. She was involved in the League of Women Voters and progressive politics for more than 60 years. Howard Dean was mom's absolute favorite!!!! My parents made it through the Great Depression and WW2 where my dad served in the US Navy. Now it is our time to save democracy. And this will be our finest hour.
I was furious when the media made such a big deal about Dean’s scream after he had won a primary. People in the audience didn’t think anything of it because he was yelling over the noise of his enthusiastic supporters which was anything but crazy. It is insane to take one incidence and use it to portray a candidate as unfit/crazy.
I think most of their feelings are valid and sympathetic, but the discussion (when its civil) is good. Arguments we practice here can be taken out into the world.
I am furious at all the pundits in the media loudly calling for Biden to resign without even considering the fact that they want the votes of millions of us in the primaries to be invalidated. I am sick of the media acting like they are the ones who know best.
I suspect some of them are just looking forward to being able to return to one of their favorite storylines — silly Democrats in disarray. They know a fight for a new nominee would be brutal just like it was in ‘68. I honestly can’t think of anyone who is well known enough to step in now. Most people have no clue who people Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsome, etc. are. Heck most have no clue what Harris has been doing as VP because the media has refused until recently to cover things like her impressive foreign trips. Getting a new candidate and attempting building up support for them now is really risky.
That ad is so excellent! Truly heartwarming – it brought tears to my eyes.
Yes, we all wish that had been the President Biden we saw on debate night, but it wasn’t. But by God, this ad is a powerful rebuttal!
Let the focus now shift to Trump’s lies and gaslighting and his outrageous plans for a second term, for which the terrifying, autocratic "Project 2025" is the blueprint.
I cancelled NYT, WAPO and Max/HBO in protest. Spending the funds to fight back.
I added a weekday print subscription to my family’s Philadelphia Inquirer one (you have to be in this area though).
Just subscribed to the digital version - in Alaska. I'll be a loyal subscriber.
Good for you!
Why Max/HBO? Same company?
Bill Maher.
I am surprised by how many on the left still watch him.
Jamelle Bouie, a NYT writer I like, pointed out something that I also noticed: while the media and the punditry can’t stop talking about Biden’s performance and whether he should drop out, the topic that has dominated TikTok and other social media is when Trump said “Immigrants are pouring into this country and coming to take Black jobs.” The racism and pure insanity of TRUMP’S performance is what people are making memes and content about, not Biden. Jamelle Bouie’s point is that while the media is breathlessly talking about Biden’s performance, the resonant parts from the debate with voters is the unhinged things Trump said.
Biden had a disappointing performance, but Trump was unhinged and scary. The media isn’t calling it out, but a whole lot of voters are. We’ve been waiting for the wandering parts of our coalition to come back, and I think Trump is helping bring some of them back.
Jamelle Bouie is the only part of NYT that I will miss.
He’s wonderful.
So true. 💙
I agree. Jamelle Bouie is great. And I’m glad to hear that the conversation among ordinary non-pundit people is not “Biden OLD” but “Trump is a racist and also a pants on fire liar.”
💙
"Pants on fire liar", that's great! =D Well...his pants would have to be quite flammable now, wouldn't they, with all that methane in there?
“Stand back, everyone! Pmurt pmurted in his pants! Nobody light a match!”
Same- I cancelled my NYT subscription but I’m following him on other social platforms because I love his insights.
Is there a way to follow him if I’m not on other social platforms? My short stint in FB years ago cured me of my curiosity of all that. It made me so sad and disappointed by so many people. Unless Substack conversations count. I like it here.
He posts quite a bit on Bluesky
Thanks. Guess I need to get with the program!
Friends who still subscribe, bless their hearts, will gift his articles to me. So that’s something. 💙
I will have to look him up butI don't subscribe to NY Times and refuse to do so. Well, I subscribe for the games 😬
Vote Biden
Historian Heather Cox Richardson has an insightful commentary about the history behind Trump’s racist trope. The idea of "Black jobs" and "Latino jobs" – and before that, jobs found suitable only for the Irish, Italian and Poles (none of whom were originally considered "properly white" – that idea is the very cornerstone to a very different society. A society in which "all men are NOT created equal"!
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/june-30-2024
That is the very society to which Team Trump wishes to return.
This conversation is so uplifting and keeps me on an even keel. I’m for Biden all the way.
Me too!
I’m a day or so behind in sub stack reading. Thanks for making sure I didn’t miss this one.
Very Irish (heritage) myself. ☘️
Heather Cox Richardson is terrific. My friend just turned me onto her. I watched her Facebook today. I am not on Facebook but I could still see it. It was about 22 minutes long.
https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson/videos/1007439607634452/?extid=SMS-UNK-UNK-UNK-IOS_GK0T-GK1C&ref=sharing&mibextid=gkx3sN
I usually start my morning with a cup of coffee and her newsletter, "Letters from an American", to which I have subscribed for years. On hard-pressed days when I have to choose between Heather and the news, I almost invariably choose Heather.
She's great! I like how to writes and says things in a way that I can understand.
Did anyone see Jay Kuo's "Just for Xeets and Giggles" post on Saturday? He shows a tweet coming from a guy named Covie (@Covie_93):
"The Black job is making sure that someone who refers to a job as a 'Black job' doesn't become president again."
https://open.substack.com/pub/statuskuo/p/just-for-xeets-and-giggles-062924?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Are the voters we need to reach watching Tik Tok? I hope so.
I think young people, especially young Black and Latino people, are part of the plan to get to 55%, and a lot of them are on TikTok.
I have given through Hopium and had shared your outlook on Biden until June 27th. I agree that Biden has been a remarkably good president and would continue to govern well in a second term. Nonetheless, I am convinced that any other plausible Democrat could make the case for the success of his presidency and the danger Trump poses better than he could that night. It was not like Obama's bad first debate against Romney that the 2012 Biden helped him repair by demolishing Paul Ryan a week later, it was an utter catastrophe. Outside the Hopium community, I do not see any possibility now that Democrats will come out of their presidential convention expecting to win.
There is no disgrace in retiring from public life in one's eighties. I would like to see Biden lionized at the upcoming convention and remembered later as only man, as he very likely was, who could beat Trump and repair much of the damage Trump had done,. I would hate to see him renominated by a demoralized part and remembered not the man who let Trump come far worse than he was the first time by insisted on running again.
Have you seen the huge numbers the Biden-Harris campaign raised this weekend, post-debate? Or all their new volunteers? That was from mostly outside the Hopium community. Many were first time donors.
We can’t be Dems in disarray. If Biden drops out we will be.
YES
Good Morning, Simon began the post by saying:
“… while we can debate our future as a party, the campaign goes on. Money has to be raised, events planned, ads cut, arguments made, canvassing organized, calls made. Early voting starts in ten weeks. The campaign goes on. We cannot let up for one minute. For we are not fighting for Joe Biden, or any one candidate. We are fighting each day for our democracy, our freedom, our future. We are fighting, each day, for all of us.”
If you are in MD then you are well placed to help out in person in PA, VA and even NC — and all these states need it. This community can help point you in good directions! Or consider all you can do to take action from home!!
Joseph, If Biden drops out there is no clear candidate the Democrats can unite around in the limited time left to election. If the Republicans can unite around a serial liar, convicted fraudster, liable for defamation for a sexual assault, an insurrectionist who wants to destroy democracy and end any restrictions on corporate power and destroy Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, then I think we can give Joe Biden the benefit of the doubt and rally around a successful president who wants a just, fair and democratic America.
I suspect that if Biden announced his choice of successor and other party leaders endorsed that person it would be much like 2020.
I think Dem voters are looking to leadership guidance and the answer we are currently getting don't worry, but telling someone do not worry is rarely effective.
Edit: I will just say if the answer is hold the course they need a show not tell offensive that Thursday was indeed a fluke.
No way Josh. Biden gave a speech the next day and he was fine. We just had the Supreme Court rule that as long as it's an "official act" the president has absolute immunity. He can literally order Field Team 6 to murder his opponents and have no criminal consequences. That is absolutely insane. You're attacking Biden at this point puts you on the side of the extremists who are trying to destroy our democracy. It's time you pick which side you're on.
Peter, I am not trying to be argumentative and frankly nothing I said was an attack on President Biden. I simply stated that the party's current message is literally some version of chill out or we are stuck with lemons. Neither is a good answer to a nervous coalition. Both are terrible sales pitches. If you are not following it up with lemonade. One good speech watched by 1/100th of the audience does not negate his performance on Thursday.
By the way I am only saying President Biden has room to choose a successor should he need to and he should be honest about the countries concerns around his age. The debate was supposed to relieve those concerns not heighten them.
The full NC speech has been viewed 35 million times - maybe 50 million watched the debate (and that’s a big maybe).
Again, his opponent is certifiably crazy and Biden is the only way to stop this mad man from being our dictator January, the absolute burden is on you to show why Biden shouldn't be the nominee, not on us trying desperately to avoid a Trump dictatorship.
Peter you are coming with a lot of priors and assumptions about my position on this. I will back president Biden on whatever decision he makes, but if he makes the decision to continue with the race they really need to do something unlike what they have done before specifically designed to reassure the public.
In my minds eye I think something like a Joe and Jill Biden interview with Opera, or comparable interviewer, where among other things they spend 5 or 6 minutes on if he is still capable of serving (which I believe him to be able to do) and show he understands why people are concerned.
It is beyond belief to me that Joe Biden who is the great empathizer to the American people could in good conscious continue on the current course. It is also hard to understand why you would accuse me of being for Trump. This is a closed community of Democrats. I am not posting this on facebook or telling every independent voter I see. I am relaying the issues I have been having when I knock doors and speak with my neighbors.
Josh, no one on this dialog is suggesting that you support T, only that the effect of Biden withdrawing his name from nomination would be to hand the election to T. It's the practicality of the process and the absence of any replacement : how would the replacement happen, step by step, what candidates are available to replace him - you're saying Joe Biden would decide on the candidate, there's still the process of making that person known. And what happens to the Kamala part of the partnership? voters have already voted for Biden in primaries - what about the sense of betrayal.? Study carefully what happened in 1968; ppl say perfunctorily 'dems are united now' but that is not pertinent. dem voters at the time voted overwhelmingly for an anti Vietnam War candidate, beginning with Eugene McCarthy (MN senator), then once the McCarthy campaign got things going, RFK entered the primaries as well (after initially deferring). I.e. voters spoke in the primaries. But [LBJ] swapped in Humphrey for himself, a fine progressive, of course well known (solving that problem) but pro-war. That did not work out well.
I'm weighing in here because I responded some on the topic over the past 2 days. Personally, I think Biden will hold it together through the next term and I value his experience, his foreign policy knowledge and his facility with the congress and I don't see anyone out there who could step in and do what we need both domestically and in the foreign policy arena on day 1.
You got it exactly. S. Winter
Well, in the stepping aside scenario, I have no reason to suspect he would choose anyone other than Vice President Harris. I think she is qualified, and capable and I think people would like the contrast between her and both President Biden and Trump. If for whatever reason he chose another candidate he would need buy-in from the other official and unofficial party leaders VP Harris included. No doubt.
But more than anything after 2020 and every conversation I have with people stems down to two thing, people voting for Biden largely do not want Trump back, and are willing to make the most strategic choice to get there.
The problem is that the debate was supposed to be an opportunity for President Biden to clear a relatively low bar, and he failed. The rest of the campaign is now about clearing that bar.
But sit with your answer to me for a moment. Every response to why President Biden should say in is some version of "don't have your very understandable worry," or "tough luck we are stuck." Neither address the concern. I am mostly looking for a different answer from the leaders of the party, Biden included. I do not think there a possibility the nomination is taken from him, but if he decided to give it up I do not think the public would not penalize the ticket. If he stays in, there needs to be a course correction and a legitimate non dismissive high profile addressing of the age issue.
Not sure you can look at 1968 as an example of what could happen today. The world, our country and the Democratic Party have changed remarkably in the last 56 years.
It is my understanding that there are all sorts of logistics involved in having Biden step down - even with everyone on board. It would be a disaster even under the best case scenario of everyone rallying around the new nominee, joining hands and singing Kumbaya. The only winners in this scenario would be Trump, the Republicans, the Media and say hello to Project 2025.
Who is this mythic candidate that Biden and the entire Democratic convention will rally behind? I mean seriously, name the person and then please tell me how that person wins with no campaign staff, no money, no strategic plan, no field offices, no media buys, no ads, no printed materials.
That stuff doesn’t just automatically transfer over from the Biden Harris campaign. The new person would be starting from scratch. In July. As a candidate chosen not by the people, but by the party.
I really don’t see how that’s a more likely path to victory.
It’s not the disgrace. It’s the chaos it would cause, which would only give The NY Times more click bait stories.
Joseph, This essay is worth reading. https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-extremely-simple-reason-maga?r=3a33y&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
I am much more upset by the mass media ( NY Times especially) call for Biden to drop out than by Biden’s flawed debate performance. Anyone else?
You nailed it! This is how I have felt all along.
Thank you!! I am so upset by The NY Times.
The NYT sucks along with the Wash Post and these blowhard pundits on cable networks. I have been disgusted by the NYT and Wash Post ever since they hounded President Bill Clinton during the 1990s over “Whitewater”, of which they were completely exonerated later on. They ridiculously called for Bill Clinton to resign after that stupid Monica affair. The NYT then largely pushed us into the Iraq invasion when they published that false article on the front page-above the fold: Saddam Hussein Has Weapons Of Mass Destruction., written by Judith Miller. Which turned out to be a lie. Then, they never shut up about “Hillary’s emails” in 2016, a non-issue invented by the media and the GQP which helped fatally damage her (among other reasons but this surely hurt). This current fiasco is even more reason for me to detest the NYT. They have shown themselves for a very long time, that they are dishonest and detached from reality. I hope a lot more folks cancel their subscriptions to them. I would except I purposefully never had one, for the long time reasons I stated.
Unfortunately, I subscribed to WA Post for a year. I won't renew.
Cindy, I've unsubscribed several times (online) and was offered $0.99/mo for a year, which I accepted most recently, because I like a couple of their opinion columnists. If you're an online subscriber, you might get that offer.
I doubt it bc I paid for the year. By the way their subscription price went way up. I love Jonathan Capehart and I really like E.J Dionne, Eugene Robinson and George Will. Just kidding. Can't stand George Will.
Sorry forgot to say thank you.
I like Jennifer Rubin.
Yes. I have been surprised she has been consistent in her support of Biden.
Me too! Can’t believe she’s not a liberal.
Vote Biden
I am more than upset: DISGUSTED!!! "All the news that's fit to print"?????
NYT revised slogan:
"All the news and lies that fit, we print."
More like all the news that’s fit to shit.
😂
V O T E B I D E N . Do not be deterred.
VOTE B I D E N !
The media are profit, click & attention driven are will do anything to ensure they get those clicks - even playing with people's emotions like that. Biden is not dropping out and if he did that would ensure a loss on our side. Pitiful
Let us remember: In 2016, the NYT’s monomanic focus on "Hillary’s emails", combined with their virtually-zero focus on issues and policy, played a decisive role in handing the election to Donald J. Trump.
I’ll never be able to forgive A.G. Sulzberger and his father for their despicable and destructive choice! And now, in 2020, Sulzberger and the NYT are again showing us their anti-democratic values.
The New York Times may see itself as "the newspaper of record" – but it is becoming "the record of America’s slide into autocracy". A dangerous slide that we must stop!
I'm optimistic that this time won't be the same in terms of their impact. There were no Substacks in 2016 - heck, there was barely a Twitter. Left-wing thinkers and strategists have a megaphone now that simply didn't exist in 2016, when the papers of record and CNN basically controlled the national conversation. My mother - hardly politically active - reads Heather Cox Richardson but doesn't read the Times and doesn't have cable.
It's not just the megaphone, though. Grassroots Dems got through all the stages together on sites like this one. We grieved, we picked each other up, we recommitted to the fight for America, and we rejected the panic-mongers. Honestly, this may be part of the reason (beyond Dobbs and MAGA) that we've been doing better with each passing year since 2021 - we have more opinions than just the pessimistic ones to listen to, and it saves us from getting too depressed or making dumb decisions (as Stuart Stevens referred to).
The tone I'm getting today from the NYT stories in the Globe and the anti-Biden camp is more "why isn't anyone listening to us?!?!?" than anything else. They failed to provoke the panic they sought (just like they failed after the Hur report back in February), and it's pissing them off.
VOTE … VOTE …. VOTE BIDEN / HARRIS
V O T E B I D E N ! ! !
I have been furious with NYTimes and Washington Post. I cancelled my WP subscription. The constant drumming on Biden’s flaws seems pointless unless the point is to help Trump. I was raised to believe actions speak louder than words. Biden’s actions have been mostly extraordinarily helpful and promising.
That is exactly how I felt!
OMG and Bob Woodward needs to explain why he did not feel any moral obligation to inform the public that Trump knew Covid wasn't going away and that it was highly contagious. I bet Bob Woodward go his vaccinations. Oh wait, he waited until he could put that information in a book. AND he is on television criticizing Biden? Yeah no.
I’d like to withdraw my NYT subscription but I’d lose my games… tell it like it is.
I’ve sent emails & letters to NYT asking who’s paying them to pretend that Joe Biden is not up to the job… in comparison to DT?
No, it’s clear TO ME the Republican billionaire class likes playing w fire and
hobnobbing with sychophants.
No I was pretty upset by his performance. Of course the Times can bite me for their horrible coverage but Biden and his team screwed the pooch on the debate.
Absolutely.
The political media has developed an addiction: All they want is the next hit of clicks. They will use MAGA junk, cook up some outrage, buy it from the shadiest dealers - whatever it takes.
They don't care about the cost.
And they sure aren't going to leave Dems alone if we give them what they want (dump our nominee). They will crucify the next one, looking for the same cheap high. Imagine the clicks from taking a hero-savior down...
I’m Running for JOE BIDEN, I’m RUNNING AGAINST FEDERALIST MEGA-MONEY WHO ARE TRYING TO DESTROY OUR DEMOCRACY. WAY IF LIFE.
I WORK FOR MY PRESIDENT , JOE BIDEN.
V O T E B I D E N ! !
Vote Biden !
I’ve been surprised and saddened by how many people have been arguing that Biden should drop out of the race. Here’s something that refutes that argument.
Allan Jay Lichtman knows what he is talking about. He’s invented a scientific model for predicting the outcome of a presidential election — and since 1984, he’s only been wrong once in naming the winner.
Lichtman: “All of these pundits and pollsters and analysts that you see on all the cable channels, and the networks, have no track record in predicting elections — yet they come on and they claim that they know how this debate is going to affect the outcome of an election. They have no idea. It’s sports talk radio. It may be entertaining but there’s no scientific basis.”
CNN: “So what is the impact [of the debate], do you think?”
Lichtman: “Zero. Debates are not predictive of outcomes. Hillary Clinton won all three debates. still lost. John Kerry won all the debates. still lost. Barack Obama got trounced, 72 to 20 percent in the poll — worse than Biden — and went on to win.”
Yes, I have been following Allan Lichtman since April about his model of the keys to the White House. He said Biden dropping out would cause more important keys to drop which would make our defeat so much more likely. The last thing Biden should do is drop out.
After hearing this, I looked up lichtman’s track record. The one election he missed on was Gore v Bush. I actually think he was correct that Gore won. It was our lovely SC that handed the election to Bush. So I think his model is 100%
yes
Yup- he’s actually 100% because Gore did win, the SC interfered.
He’s got a much better track record than any talking head, and while he doesn’t make his official prediction until October, he’s been very clear that Biden is the only candidate that can capture several needed “keys” to win.
We need to stop amplifying the calls for Biden to step away. It was one bad night—after 90+ minutes onstage with a torrent of lies, projection and gaslighting, he went on to a debate watch after party, a Waffle House, a 2 AM flight to NC, later that morning a rally in Raleigh (the biggest of the campaign yet), and then a flight to New York to celebrate a Pride event recognizing Stonewall—all within a single 24hr window!
One bad night, a cold and a lifetime trying to master a stutter—meanwhile a jury convicted felon, rapist and tax evading fraudster who, after being asked THREE times, refused to say he will accept the election’s outcome! But the only media to call for Tr*mp to step down from the race is the Philadelphia Inquirer’s editorial board…seriously, WTF?
One thing I will give MAGA & Repubs—literally the only thing—they rally around their own in moments of weakness, they don’t eat their own.
Also, Biden not only had a RECORD day of fundraising after the debate, but also RECORD volunteer sign ups.
Sometimes the corporate media and punditocracy or even our own anecdotal experiences do NOT reflect the broader reality.
No matter the spin from a media reliant on binary, conflict-driven narratives, which forces false equivalences and pushes politics as a horse race, defaulting to covering the poll-obsessed odds, rather than the existential stakes in this election (especially given MAGA Justice's above-the-law immunity ruling)—what happens next is in OUR hands.
So, keep calm and do the work that wins election—the same grassroots volunteer work that delivered our wins 2018, in 2020, and 2022.
One bad night can’t (and shouldn’t) wipe out the past three years of what is THE most consequential administration since FDR…let’s not do MAGA’s job for them by tearing our own candidate down—that effort should be directed at the two-time popular vote losing, twice impeached and 91 times criminally-indicted traitor who would be convicted of even more crimes were it not for his billionaire-bought justices delaying his day in court.
As Anat Shenker-Osorio reminds us, it’s time to stop doom scrolling and #BucktheF*ckUp!
https://x.com/anatosaurus/status/1806796373888831625/video/1
And the Supreme Court today basically gave Trump the heads-up on immunity, gutting Jack Smith's case. One of the dissents said that basically, under this new interpretation Seal Team Six, might be allowed to target another candidate. Good God!
Indeed -- I just edited as when I posted this, I hadn't yet seen the Get Out of Jail ruling from the billionaire-bought MAGA justices come through...
Then it also gives Biden the same power till January 20.
But we know that Joe would never use his power in an unscrupulous manner.
Meanwhile, a Democratic leader who will stand up and fight for the American people: https://x.com/AOC/status/1807814421168710111
Yup, don't see why #KingBiden couldn't sic Seal Team Six on Tr*mp before the election—he'd be protecting the Constitution against a convicted felon lighting on fire the torn pieces that remain, now that the MAGA justices have ripped it apart.
I just wanted to thank you. I come to your posting everyday for hope. I’ve been contributing to the Biden campaign all year. I’ve never understood democrats —- republicans don’t seem to care that their candidate is a rapist and felon. But dems start handwringing after one bad night. I just don’t understand. Biden is the best president of my lifetime and I’ve been through a few.
I subscribed to the Philadelphia Inquirer yesterday after reading their powerful editorial regarding Trump. And today I canceled my subscription to The Bulwark, which I have enjoyed for quite some time because it has traditionally been a forum for smart, reasonable conservatives, and I think it’s important to see their point of view. But since Charlie Sykes left and Bill Kristol came on board, the site has gone downhill, and since the debate, Bill has been, not only on the drop – Biden bandwagon, but driving it. I have been voting Democratic for 50 years, and I’m sick and tired of Republicans telling us how to run our party. There are very good reasons the GOP has not won the popular vote in a presidential election since 1988, and they need to take care of their own house before they try to sweep ours out, along with our excellent president.
Unfortunately, Charlie Sykes is also on the drop Biden train. We have to show them that the voters want Biden. Maybe the Supreme Court ruling will galvanize Democrats, Independents and some Republicans to work for Biden's re-election in order to save our country.
So did I!
Totally agree on Kristol. What a piece of shit. Telling us how to run our party. The nerve. The only ones worth anything there (on their good days) are JVL, Tim Miller, Longwell and Conway.
Not tim miller. He has no clue!!
Perhaps not. I havent listened to him since the debate.
Good Morning Hopium Community. I have refrained from letting my own feelings about Thursdays debate color my perception and spreading fear for cathartic sake alone.
I spent the weekend with a group of people I would describe as about 12 people who cover the spectrum from Strong Dem to Weak Dem, maybe even a little maga curious, white collar and blue collar. For me it felt like a good if not great focus group of the Dem coalition. The general consensus was after the debate was everyone was more disturbed by Trump's lies and intent than worried about Biden. However, virtually everyone expressed hope Biden would step aside because they know people in their lives who did not see Trump as dangerous only strong.
I will work my hardest to ensure a Biden win if he decided to stay, but I am no longer convinced the risks of a brokered convention out weigh the risks of him staying in. The point of the early debate was to show strength and competence, and he did not do so on Thursday.
I recognize there are those selfish enough to make a brokered or Biden Guided convention nasty and divisive, but I think this is a situation much like 2020 where the voters were more than willing to get behind a strategic choice. I am not calling for President Biden (the best president of my life) to step aside. I just want him to know that the coalition is deeply grateful for his leadership, but needs him to quickly eliminate our doubts or announce plans to hand off the reigns.
There was a poll on Friday and no Democrat had a higher percentage than Biden against Trump.
Yeah but the problem with a poll like that is largely a derivative of name ID. It is why Michelle Obama is so consistently names as potential presidential nominee even though there is no one in the country who has unambiguously stated more often they would NEVER run for president.
I am open to the notion that Biden is still the best option but the time of softball interviews is unfortunately past. They need to eliminate doubts not tell everyone there is nothing to worry about. This is a show not tell situation, because they dropped the ball.
I think Biden needs to do televised town halls. He can give more thoughtful answers without a time clock, without an opponent who gives the most shocking, outrageous replies and without moderators who do not fact check. Town halls are one-on-one one with voters which is something Joe likes to do. Ever seen his people trying to get Joe away from a rope-line? And that is, frankly, more informative to us voters than these cage matches.
Could not agree more. If he is our nominee, so be it. But, if he cannot withstand townhalls, rope lines, standard candidate stuff, then that is a concern.
Joe loves talking to voters. Maybe you misunderstood me. He loves rope lines. And, if you remember, he was one of the last people to leave at the State of the Union. I think they had to blink the lights to get him to leave. And what other President has walked a pro-union picket line? This is his Super-Power!!!
If there's anything, one thing, I've learned from following Simon (as well as Tom Bonier, and Christopher Bouzy) from way, way before the midterms—it's that polls DON'T vote.
The best prediction of future voting, is current voting, i.e., election results and funding for candidates. Polling is not the most important indicator and given who is polled, who is doing the polling, how they are polling AND especially, how the polling is reported -- polls are literally the LEAST important (and often most misleading) indicator.
Most important though, if poll shows the lead is within the margin of error for the poll's -- then clearly, the win is within the 'margin of effort'.
https://www.weekendreading.net/p/a-cure-for-mad-poll-disease
Dems in disarray. And the fund raising. Watch Lawrence O’Donnell. Politics Girls also did a GREAT a video piece on this.
He's made his announcement, by action, not words. He's not stepping aside. That is for the best.
Just to quote my earlier comment "I think Dem voters are looking to leadership guidance and the answer we are currently getting don't worry, but telling someone do not worry is rarely effective." If indeed it is for the best it is time to prove it by quickly dispelling doubts, the speech over the weekend was a start but the Delta on audience was probably in the 10s of millions.
It is all his advisors and the senior consultants who have reassured us that the President is up to the task. Campaigning is a key part of his job, and that is where the questions lie.
Strength, ability, and empathy are show not tell things and all three should be the focus moving forward.
Hi, Josh; I suspect that the people that 'did not see Trump as dangerous only strong' are *probably* going to vote for Trump regardless of who the Democrats offer. If they couldn't/wouldn't see the lies shrouded by his so-called strength, there's a high probability they went in to leaning Trump, or at least leaning against Biden. At least that's my judgment.
My concern is more so with those Dems or lean-Dems that watched the debate and check out because they figure it's over.
Needless to say, I could be wrong.
This election will be decided on the margins. It’s great that so many of us here, even in blue states like I am, are working to GOTV via letters postcards door knocking etc. thank you all for your work!!
Josh - you are right. I have been a strong Biden supporter (and appreciate his legislative successes) but Thursday's debate terrified me. It was not "one bad night" and I am angry at Biden's team for pretending we did not see what we see. I remember Obama's and Reagan's bad debates, and they were nothing like this, plus they were well ahead at the time. In the aftermath, Biden's team has had him speak with teleprompters to friendly audiences. Not speak extemporaneously to undecideds or more critical interviewers. I feel as if our country is at stake and people are worried about hurting Biden's feelings.
I have not heard one person from Biden's team or anyone else for that matter say Biden had a good debate or looked good. Maybe I missed those comments?
Well they are not worried about hurting the feelings of so many of us who still believe is Joe and the incredible team he has assembled. He really did hire “the best people”.
My small circle, which consist of die hard Dems, meh Dems, a Republican and a few former Republicans were all disappointed in the debate, scared and all of them want Biden to stay in the race. So there you go.
I want to say why this community is so important to me.
I'm not a political strategist or operative, just a person who is furious, horrified and unwilling to accept Trump/MAGA. Like so many others, probably you, I have been baffled and disgusted that any sane decent person could have ever supported Trump. I am outraged that he is treated in the media as anything but a psychopathic conman, and feeling desperate at what seems to be mass blindness and/or derangement in our society - in other words, I've felt (for years) all dressed up in fury with no place to go.
By starting this community and stepping forward as a leader, Simon gave me and thousands like me, a constructive focus for our rage and resistance - a battle plan to defend freedom now and for the future. The secret of doing more and worrying less goes to the heart of what makes the worry so paralyzing: the problem seems so enormous and overwhelming. It is especially hard on those of us who are problem solvers by temperament in our daily lives because this problem is bigger than any one of us can solve. Do more and worry less is about collective action - that every day we each take a piece of the action, a piece right sized to our resources and abilities with the end result of becoming a force greater than seemed possible.
I'm so grateful to Simon and all of you here with me. LFG!!!!!
I agree 100%, Lyn! Thanks for stating it so perfectly!!
Yes, well-stated, thank you. And I'll add, every time Simon posts an interview with a candidate, I'm reassured and impressed at how many outstanding ppl there are in the fight.
Yup-💯agree Lyn! It feels great to DO something that will be effective. And to know their are millions more like us all around the country who just need to keep rising up. I thank Simon and this community at least once a week for making a place of hope and resolve. People whose eyes are wide open to the challenges and toxicities and still prefer to unify in DOING something about it. We’re alive and fighting not overwhelmed and suppressed by the MAGA BS. 🙏🏻
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
I had a hellish week last week for reasons that have nothing to do with politics - death of a friend of my daughter’s who was just 29, a friend’s dog killed by a car, and a close friend was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. Then the debate. Truly the week from hell.
I am a lifelong environmental activist - more than 55 years. I have been shredded many times by policy actions that combined with personal trauma and made the world seem bleak. So I did the usual: I picked myself up and went to work. My first action Friday was to make donations via the Hopium links to the Biden campaign and the Blue dot campaign in Nebraska (I have family there.) Today, postcards. Later this week, door knocking.
Biden had a bad night last Thursday but personally, I am much more afraid of the seismic shift caused by the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Chevron principle last week. All the policies limiting pollution and God knows what just got shredded.
We need Democrats governing across the board - and an expansion of the number of seats on the court, along with ethics regulations for the Court that have really big teeth. Otherwise, the health consequences of that one ruling alone will kill millions with God knows what effects on food production and the rest of life on the planet. The good news there is the to-do list is the same as its always been. THAT I can do.
So let’s all do more, and worry less. Thank you Simon and Hopium community!
And the Supreme Court just did more damage today!
So very sorry to hear, Sheila….
Thank you, for always being such an incredible champion for the environment and fierce democracy warrior.
Grateful to have you on our team as we do more, worry less. Thank YOU! 💙
I’m so sorry for all the personally hard things you had to deal with last week. Sending support and comfort from a fellow Hopium member!!
My condolences, and thank you for your post. Agree re: Chevron.
I’m with you Sheila: environment, courts,democracy in action vs MAGA and Oligarchs. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
On FOX, Vivek Ramaswarmy says that the whole thing is a "well planned" plot by "Democratic insiders" to do something mean to Trump or, well...to be mean to somebody.
Huh????
Consider the source and have a laugh.
The Philly editorial deserves a Pulitzer. You can't be more clear than that about the danger of a second Trump presidency. Given the Rs in Congress, even without their obstructionism, Joe Biden has a phenomenal record. My vote for Biden-Harris has never wavered.