Because it’s impossible to actually lead or you know, *govern*! It’s sad (or maybe good) that MAGA destroys the souls of any well meaning or good faith Republicans. If they don’t play along with the silly games Trump demands are either “primaried” out by more MAGA friendly competitors, sent death threats by their own constituents so they no longer feel safe, or just get “soul sickness” from dealing with the performative stunts, the hypocrisy, the ignorance, the infighting and the complete and total dysfunction. No one who is good and decent can put themselves through that day in and day out for very long without feeling like they’re going to prison instead of work.
Yes, we need guidance on where to send money for actual "bang" for the buck. Competitive / Flippable seats. Wasting $Millions opposing Marjorie Green is stupid. Here's my list now, mostly from Cooks political reports. It will change as Dem primaries progress.
I use ActBlue where donations are smooth & easy. I've never had a problem there. It defaults to "one-time" but you can choose "Monthly recurring". ActBlue requests a tip each time but I have a small recurring going to them so I skip that.
Yes, that's a good site and has a couple I need to consider.
The only problem with all official sites is a tendency to over-include. Even here they can't resist listing Biden-Harris who IMHO need grass-roots money much less than any of the legislators they list. And seem to send about 13% of even state-level group donations to Biden-Harris, which is weird. And some shots in the dark eg. headlining Ruben Gallego for Az who is not yet the official candidate.
In general, with so much production effort (a good thing) it ends up with some committee 'cover all the bases' flavor. Unfortunately, because of that tendency, a bang-for-the-buck reader still has to question all their choices. Fortunately, they give reasons and quote numbers in most cases.
So yes, a very good resource if taken with a small grain of salt. Thanks for bringing it up.
I appreciate your forwarding your list . We overlap in several areas and it will provide other areas for my research. Thank you. FYI: I read that Simon is preparing a list of 6-7 candidates that he is sending out to our Hopium Community. I look forward to seeing those too. I’m leaning toward Florida to support their reproductive rights campaign and their candidate for Congress: Debbie Mucarsel. The other area I’m hoping to get some ideas for are the best areas for supporting youth voter registration/ voting.
I’m familiar with a couple of great groups ( TCC and Voters of Tomorrow) but I’m very interested in Simon’s guidance here.
Oh No! Sorry to hear that Kathy! Not surprised tho bc there seems to be a pretty tenacious GOP/MAGA group in Florida. I hope Simon selects Florida to support next. He’s mentioned it previously so I expect he’ll decide soon. Focusing all/many of our grassroots groups in one specific area seems to have made a major impact on the elections in Ohio, Va,Kentucky and now NY-3 most recently! I’m donating to the “ Rights” campaign in Fl but would love do see many more do so. Good luck
Very worthy and doing good work in helping people establish small networks of Dem contributors and general involvement. Their description of helping Eva Diaz (AZ) as a 2022 write-in is completely accurate.
But they don't have a bang for the buck "most needy right now for 2024" list, which is what I want.
It’s awesome that you took the time to do all this! VotesaveAmerica (from Crooked Media) also has a “anxiety free monthly plan” where you can choose an amount that’s comfortable for you and they shift the appropriation of the funds based on where they’re likely to have the most impact at different times.
I’m not exactly sure how they determine that, but I’ll see if they have a link to the variables they use. They also send you a monthly report of which races your money helped support so you can see what your money helped support.
I mainly just do what “Simon Says” ;) but this might be a good second option for anyone looking to make the most impact with their donations.
VoteSaveAmerica has the right idea, to curate the most needy ie. bang for the buck Dem races and spread donations among them. And most of their choices seem right at first glance.
I don't think you'd go wrong by donating there, since they go through and are presumably vetted by ActBlue. And again it's certainly the right idea.
[Edit: I had said that Jahana Hayes (CT) and Pat Ryan (NY) seemed odd choices but others here point out that isn't so. My mistake in the latter case from misereading his term on Ballotopedia.]
So I just did an independent search for those two candidates specifically and these were among the first couple of hits. I’m not really familiar with either publication but they seem like pretty reliable to me.
Jahana Hayes (CT-05)
According to this article, she seems to have won that seat multiple times but the last time she was ran against Hogan (who is running again this year), she won by a little over 2,000 votes - which is a fairly narrow victory considering the money that was spent there. https://ctmirror.org/2023/10/02/george-logan-ct-5th-district-running-jahana-hayes/
This article is from 11/08/23. I don’t know if the article is wrong or if there is more current information that shows that he is actually running in 2025.
In any case, those two cases didn’t seem like particular outliers but as very plausible close races that are likely to go blue but could probably use some help especially if Trump turnout is higher than expected or Democratic turnout lower than expected. So I think based on your research & swingleft, the VSA picks seem fairly reliable. I appreciate all your thoroughness!
Dan, I think you are mistaken regarding Pat Ryan. He was elected to the US House in the summer of 2022 in a special election, then reran in Nov 2022 and will be running again in Nov of this year. Did you get thrown off by the dates he is serving? Congress was sworn in in early Jan 2023 after the Nov 2022 election and will serve until Jan 2025 for the current term.
Former Governor Larry Hogan (R) just announced he's running for US Senate in Maryland, and he's going to be tough to beat. People think he's a moderate, but he's not going to DC to help Democrats, he's going to be another vote against voting rights, tax fairness, and every other good thing we want to do.
I grew up in MD and still have family there. Hogan won the first time because the Democratic candidate (Lt. Governor under the previous administration) assumed he had it in the bag and ran an uninspired campaign. Democrats just didn't turn out for what was nationally a mid-term election. Hogan was reelected because he'd done a decent job on the economy.
We'll have to see, but with the partisan environment and the Senate in the balance, I don't know how far his good will will go for his Senate bid. MD hasn't had a Republican in the Senate since 1986.
David Trone is the most likely Dem to advance to the general election in 2024. He's currently in the House representing the 6th district and he and his brother founded Total Wine and More, so he has deep pockets.
Yes, you can send candidates personal checks directly. Check their websites for info.
ActBlue is non-profit. They run a slick, well-maintained site, which does what I need: choose individual candidates and handle monthly donations automatically, changing amounts etc when I want. The one time I asked for help finding the right campaign I got a courteous and knowledgeable answer in a few hours.
So... it would be nice if doing that cost less, and I have no idea how well-run and efficient it really is internally. But a probably-legit 4% is OK with me in these crucial times.
Friends, be very careful about denigrating ActBlue. The technology is incredible easy to use, is very sophisticated and is a central reason we are so dramatically outraising Republicans. The is some of the most important technology developed in the center-left family over the past 25 years, and while it isn't perfect we would not be where we are today without them.
How much of that 3.95% is what the credit card companies charge AB? Based on my experience of "opting in" to cover the processing fees and on the Board of a couple of local not-for-profits, almost all of it is going to the credit card companies.
AB is a business, they have employees, expenses, etc., they too need to be able to pay their bills so that they can function. Can't expect them to work for free. They do a great job.
"Yes, we need guidance on where to send money for actual "bang" for the buck."
For previous elections, Prof. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium did analyses of precisely this: In which raises your contribution would likely to have the most "bang for the buck". That was particularly important for Senate races.
Obvious factors impacting his calculus was state population (which correlated with advertising costs), as well as closeness of polls.
Spoiler alert: Wyoming, Alaska and Maine tended to score much better than, say, Texas or Florida.
Sam Wang currently runs The Gerrymandering Project, which is excellent.
Yes, a major factor in determining all where the money goes is can we win the race, which is something that professors and folks outside the business have a harder time getting a handle on. All the things we've taken on here at Hopium have resulted in wins, in part because I can analyze the viability of the races themselves, not just the efficiency.
I commend you for that! And Hopium’s track record is absolutely amazing!
(To his credit, *viability* was always a part of Sam Wang’s analysis as well. No need to throw money at hopeless races, nor at campaigns that already are flush with cash.)
Certainly one of Trump's best gifts this cycle have been his comments on abandoning NATO. Shockingly, the NYTs excellent foreign affairs reporter Peter Baker has succumbed to the cover of legitimacy the paper continues to provide Trump.
Here's what I wrote today:
Trump’s NATO Threat Reflects a Wider Shift on America’s Place in the World
Mr. Baker
I have admired your objective reporting on US foreign policy for years.
It sad to see your perspective in this article has been absorbed into current partisan politics.
The existential question of whether the US is safer and wealthier with or without our NATO alliances is not an equivalent question. We absolutely would be in a more dangerous place without our European allies containing Russia's aggressive ambitions.
This article's analysis seems to imply maintaining NATO is an open question. Why ? Because some voters believe Trump's MAGA claims that NATO makes the US weaker. It may validate these dangerous ideas among his base but it's not an "experiment" worth trying in our real world without do overs. Your article might have asked where America would be today if we didn't join WWII.
IMO, the core of Trump's argument is that we'd be better off with Putin and friends taking over European democracies like Hitler and Mussolini tried in the last century.
From this perspective, the real meaning of MAGA is "Make Aryans Great Again" not America as we know it.
Thank you,
Merrill Weingrod
401-480-8003
You can write directly to the Times at.............
My understanding is that their media bias leans left.
Heather Cox Richardson said on Tuesday that the NYT had 6 articles above the fold regarding Biden’s age and that you had to do a bit of digging to find anything about Trump’s remarks on not coming to a NATO country’s aid if they haven’t “paid their bills.”
I don’t subscribe to the NYT so I have no base from which to judge.
But I do know this.
People (including corporations and politicians) are motivated by one of two things:
The carrot or the stick.
I’m wondering if the paper is succumbing to populist pressure or MAGA.
Judy, NYT used to lean left. In fact, I believe it has leaned left since its inception. What’s happening now is that corporate owned media has partnered with the republican party and Trump, because all
they care about is money.
The partnership, as near as I can tell is this:
Corporations will help elect Trump and other republicans in exchange for lower corporate
taxes, ending their obligation to fund half of
their employees’ social security benefit &
chronic underfunding of the IRS so it’s less
likely corporations will be audited.
In order to help Trump and other GOP dopes get elected, corporate owned media has essentially agreed to slant reporting to favor the political “right.” Most corporate owned media is already doing that. As for the people who do the reporting, they either go along with it or lose their jobs.
It’s shocking to see journalists like Peter Baker
sell out democracy because they know better.
It wouldn’t surprise me if journalists are also
being threatened. We know dozens of people in Congress have been threatened by Trump’s
thugs, why wouldn’t they threaten journalists too?
The NYT is politically Republican, have been ever since the Clintons came on the scene. There's another hit piece today by Pamela Paul, where she damns Biden with faint praise, writes innuendo about his cognitive abilities and so on. We see the same from Brian Kerem in Salon ( and Salon is leftist; IMO never expect the far left to have your back, never ) today; clearly Biden is better but, they gotta say bad things about him. We are going to be fighting these folks as well as the Rs this cycle. And now they are gearing up for hearings in the House to have Hur testify? There are powerful forces who do not want another Biden term. And that's not conspiracy theory; it is rather obvious. Looks like I'm going to have to get into the trenches a little more deeply this cycle. Our best allies this cycle? It's going to be former Rs and Never Trumpers. I feel better about them than I do the Norman Solomons or the gang at The Nation. Once MAGA is crushed, we can get back to arguing over worker rights and school vouchers with the Chris Christies and Charlie Bakers of the world.
Honestly, one of the staunchest supporters of Presisdent Biden has been the Lincoln Project.
And to paraphrase one of Simon's taglines, I'd rather have Rick Wilson on our side than theirs. They haven't been shy about calling out Trump's declining mental capacity, his authoritarian plans, and the danger to our democracy while at the same time talking truthfully about the good economy and Biden's diplomatic successes.
I don't know what will make these people happy; they didn't like Obama, they hated Hillary, they went after Bill Clinton. They hated Al Gore and attacked Kerry for throwing away his medals and reported the swift boat BS like it was a real story. It really doesn't matter who we come up with; if we kicked Biden and Harris to the curb, they'd be saying AA's feel betrayed, and whoever we managed to come up with instead would be unsatisfactory.
Any theories I might have about why the Times sticks to its anti-Biden bias are speculative so I'll say I don't know.
What I do know is that the Times news reporting is overseen by its senior management, AG Sulzberger and Joe Kahn so the anti-Biden attitudes must come from the top. IMO, the Times journalists are self-censoring to stay in line with their bosses. We can advocate for is a more balanced approach to the news which will result in many more stories about the good Biden's policies are achieving for all Americans and fewer stories about how he walks with a shuffle or forgets a date. It is a stunning reversal that we, the American majority understand the great job Biden has done in this first term. The Times, which alleges to report all the News that's fit to print, doesn't believe
those stories will sell newspapers or generate digital clicks.
Delighted with what Democrats did in NY and PA this week! As a Democrat working in the deep red Shenandoah Valley, I'd like to also give a shout-out to the Democrats in Oklahoma who didn't win, but came very close. Newsweek wrote that, a "Republican winning an Oklahoma special election on Tuesday night in a deep red area by just five points has sparked concerns about the GOP's performance in November's races.
Republican Erick Harris won House District 39's special election by 261 votes, beating Democrat Regan Raff into second place (50 percent to 45 percent). The election was triggered following former state Representative Ryan Martinez's resignation last September after pleading guilty to a felony offense of being in physical control of a vehicle while intoxicated." Trump beat Biden by 33 points in 2020. Dems working hard in red areas may not get the big, exciting wins, but what they're doing matters. Go Oklahoma!
Too often in my long political life, the structures and some leaders of the Democratic Party have been unable/even unwilling to pull together the citizen energy which exists for small "d" democratic governance. The Party thrives when parallel organizations goose it into line. Thanks for leading this effort this time around, Simon.
Hi all! In the spirit of sharing important efforts needing support with this community, I wanted to share an effort out here in Orange County California. We are less than 3 weeks away from a school board Recall election to remove to MAGA/Moms for Liberty inspired candidates from our district. They have passed anti-Trans policies, siphoned money from public schools for back room deals supporting Hillsdale backed charter schools and are working on a book ban next if this recall fails. Given how grassroots this operation is, we don’t have an organized engine to use volunteer hours from afar, but if you have any spare funds you can donate, that would be SO HELPFUL as we are up against some deep far right pockets. Here is the donation site: https://donorbox.org/citizens-for-the-recall-of-ledesma-ortega-miner-and-rumsey. Here is the broader website with more information on the effort: www.ousdrecall.com. Thank you in advance for anyone who is willing to donate and support this effort!
Simon writes: "I’m not sure what is next for us here..."
My thought relates to the young Black and Latino voters as well as many young Bernie Sanders voters who are looking for an alternative to Joe Biden. I think it is urgent that there be a focus for ALL OF US on Trump planning on implementing the insurrection act and bringing the military into inner cities. This will be the single greatest danger to this country and why Biden must be re-elected. Every constituency must understand the stakes involved with this one proposal that we should assume Trump WILL implement.
Whenever I read about young black men moving towards Trump, I wish heroes like Yusef Salaam would speak up and tell them what Trump used to think about “young black kids” when he wasn’t running for president.
Here are a handful of places I recommend donating to over all others, and why:
1) Run For Something—donate here. RFS recruits young progressives to run for office across the country for municipal, school board, election administrator, county supervisor, and statehouse seats. They offer candidates support, help with volunteer recruitment, and fund their races. Their candidates have a high win rate and their school board candidates absolutely destroyed Moms for Liberty everywhere in November. (Their school board win rate was 72%.) Here’s a list of their recent successes. It’ll blow your mind. Oh, and they elected 138 election clerks this year, including 34 wins against noted election deniers. Their candidates tend to go on to phenomenal things–so they’re also building a bench! SO IMPORTANT! When I say that this organization is saving the country I am not exaggerating. Read their 2024 strategic goal here.
2) Movement Voter Project — donate here (right now, thanks to a generous subscriber, I’m running a 20K matching campaign, so your donations will be doubled up to 20K!). MVP vets and then funds the most effective grassroots organizing groups working on the ground in swing (and other) states. In short, they are funding today’s Stacey Abrams, everywhere. If we want youth turnout, BIPOC turnout, and a growing progressive electorate then funding MVP is how we best get it. They’re absolutely amazing. See their 2024 plan here—your donations will go towards executing it.
3) The States Project — donate here. An absolutely vital group focussed exclusively on winning state-level elections and flipping state legislatures. They also help candidates and elected reps write good progressive policy. They are so, so good at what they do—they are the reason we won in VA, and also the reason we had the brilliant election in 2022 that we did. Flipping the MI statehouse? That was them. Flipping the MN statehouse? Them too. I could go on. Read the Times article about them here. See their 2024 target states here. They have tons of other good press on their website. (If you want to give to a specific “Giving Circle” you can give to mine! But the money will go to them either way).
4) Give to voter registration groups in Mecklenberg County, North Carolina!, NC is SO STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT that I am working with All in For NC to do just that. We need to win North Carolina in November, and we can. NC has a new state Dem party chair and she’s 🔥. Mecklenberg County has millions of potential Dem voters and the Meck Cty Dems have proven themselves extremely capable under new leadership as well. So donate here to help with this cause–we’re trying to raise 500K to register 40,000 voters there!.
5) For voter registration in all swing states support Field Team Six. They have data to back up their success and they require just around $3 to register one purple voter (Dem or DTS).
6) Sister District has a small selection of grassroots organizations they are supporting via their “State Bridges” project. They also do a deep research dive into who is most effective. These orgs are all WELL WORTH your money. One fund covers eight orgs. Donate here.
7) Give to an Every State Blue fund to help statehouse candidates in Ohio, Missouri, and Texas. (Read this to see why this is so important.) They are also raising money for Tennessee and Indiana.
8) Galvanize Action is an astonishingly smart and effective organization working to connect with and sway white female voters–many of whom voted for Trump in 2016. They use a data-backed approach, targeted communications, and lots of focus groups to figure out what messages will best work with this vital demographic. I don’t know of ANY other organization doing this work, and Galvanize does it extraordinarily well. Highly recommend it. Give here.
WANT HELP DECIDING WHERE TO GIVE STRATEGICALLY?
1) Sign up for updates with Focus For Democracy–they do deep, deep research dives on which orgs are most effective at turning out voters and then raise money for them. They’re having a meeting on Tuesday, February 13th at 5PM PT /8PM ET– Click here to register.
● They will share their 2024 strategy and explain how their recommendations are timed for each stage of the presidential election cycle.
● They will be recommending organizations that have funding gaps and have proven records of delivering net Democratic votes.
2) Subscribe to Blue Tent. Blue Tent helps donors at all levels give effectively to elect Democrats and enact policies for a fairer America.
3) Join a group doing the vetting for you. These are EXCELLENT groups, most of them run by dedicated volunteers. Force Multiplier, Walk the Walk, Airlift, Flip the Vote.
There are many other worthy places to give, but if you’re asking me for bang on your buck, you can’t do better than any or all of the above places.
Love having such a broad scope of resources. Being able to access information like this is one of my major reasons for joining Hopium Chronicles. Your generosity is much appreciated.
Hi Simon. In addition to targets of opportunity maybe we can focus on voter registration. That will help in Nov and can be done in the background for many of us. Maybe we can do something with NC Dems to help boost registration in our adopted state.
Squeaker Johnson can never be Speaker because Kevin surrendered power to the crazies in January 2023 and the entire GOP does not have the brains, guts or honesty to take it back. Kevin was a Squeaker from day one, never Speaker.
Johnson claimed the Dem win in NY3 is not a "bellwether," and we can't tell if he's lying to himself or the MAGA base. Kevin is a famous liar, but Johnson isn't much better, and isn't half the politician.
No anti-choice Republican can beat Biden, and few anti-choice Republicans will be in the House a year from now.
I'll add another group that could use support is The Civics Center. <https://www.thecivicscenter.org> They operate in local high schools, helping to organize and run high school Seniors voter registration drives.
I love the Civics Center and have written postcards and letters for them as well as sending $$. The Civics Center is a 501(c)3 organization, so any donations are tax-deductible.
My favorite quote on this election so far, “We’re Kicking Their Ass All Over The Country”.
Why are so many Republican house members retiring? Especially from a leadership.
Maybe they find it more rewarding to be mowing the lawn at home?
Because it’s impossible to actually lead or you know, *govern*! It’s sad (or maybe good) that MAGA destroys the souls of any well meaning or good faith Republicans. If they don’t play along with the silly games Trump demands are either “primaried” out by more MAGA friendly competitors, sent death threats by their own constituents so they no longer feel safe, or just get “soul sickness” from dealing with the performative stunts, the hypocrisy, the ignorance, the infighting and the complete and total dysfunction. No one who is good and decent can put themselves through that day in and day out for very long without feeling like they’re going to prison instead of work.
Yes, we need guidance on where to send money for actual "bang" for the buck. Competitive / Flippable seats. Wasting $Millions opposing Marjorie Green is stupid. Here's my list now, mostly from Cooks political reports. It will change as Dem primaries progress.
I use ActBlue where donations are smooth & easy. I've never had a problem there. It defaults to "one-time" but you can choose "Monthly recurring". ActBlue requests a tip each time but I have a small recurring going to them so I skip that.
US SENATE
Jon Tester - MT
Sherrod Brown - OH
US HOUSE
Jared Golden ME-02
Don Davis NC-01
Yadira Caraveo CO-08
Gabe Vasquez NM-02
Emilia Sykes OH-13
Kirsten Engel AZ-06
Susan Wild PA-07
Matt Cartwright PA-08
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-03
----------------------
If you have money for Arizona legislature:
AZ SENATE
Judy Schwiebert Az LD02
Christine Marsh AZ LD04
AZ HOUSE
Stephanie Simacek AZ LD02
Laura Terech AZ LD04
Seth Blattman LD09
Keith Seaman AZ LD16
Here is another data point that I think has significant overlap with your recommendations:
https://swingleft.org/p/strategy
Yes, that's a good site and has a couple I need to consider.
The only problem with all official sites is a tendency to over-include. Even here they can't resist listing Biden-Harris who IMHO need grass-roots money much less than any of the legislators they list. And seem to send about 13% of even state-level group donations to Biden-Harris, which is weird. And some shots in the dark eg. headlining Ruben Gallego for Az who is not yet the official candidate.
In general, with so much production effort (a good thing) it ends up with some committee 'cover all the bases' flavor. Unfortunately, because of that tendency, a bang-for-the-buck reader still has to question all their choices. Fortunately, they give reasons and quote numbers in most cases.
So yes, a very good resource if taken with a small grain of salt. Thanks for bringing it up.
Hi Dan,
I appreciate your forwarding your list . We overlap in several areas and it will provide other areas for my research. Thank you. FYI: I read that Simon is preparing a list of 6-7 candidates that he is sending out to our Hopium Community. I look forward to seeing those too. I’m leaning toward Florida to support their reproductive rights campaign and their candidate for Congress: Debbie Mucarsel. The other area I’m hoping to get some ideas for are the best areas for supporting youth voter registration/ voting.
I’m familiar with a couple of great groups ( TCC and Voters of Tomorrow) but I’m very interested in Simon’s guidance here.
Thanks again and Onward.
Thanks, Irene. And now in FL we have the proposed fetal personhood bill.😡
Oh No! Sorry to hear that Kathy! Not surprised tho bc there seems to be a pretty tenacious GOP/MAGA group in Florida. I hope Simon selects Florida to support next. He’s mentioned it previously so I expect he’ll decide soon. Focusing all/many of our grassroots groups in one specific area seems to have made a major impact on the elections in Ohio, Va,Kentucky and now NY-3 most recently! I’m donating to the “ Rights” campaign in Fl but would love do see many more do so. Good luck
Also check out the https://statesproject.org/ they are having a big focus on flipping the AZ state legislature.
Very worthy and doing good work in helping people establish small networks of Dem contributors and general involvement. Their description of helping Eva Diaz (AZ) as a 2022 write-in is completely accurate.
But they don't have a bang for the buck "most needy right now for 2024" list, which is what I want.
It’s awesome that you took the time to do all this! VotesaveAmerica (from Crooked Media) also has a “anxiety free monthly plan” where you can choose an amount that’s comfortable for you and they shift the appropriation of the funds based on where they’re likely to have the most impact at different times.
https://votesaveamerica.com/
I’m not exactly sure how they determine that, but I’ll see if they have a link to the variables they use. They also send you a monthly report of which races your money helped support so you can see what your money helped support.
I mainly just do what “Simon Says” ;) but this might be a good second option for anyone looking to make the most impact with their donations.
VoteSaveAmerica has the right idea, to curate the most needy ie. bang for the buck Dem races and spread donations among them. And most of their choices seem right at first glance.
I don't think you'd go wrong by donating there, since they go through and are presumably vetted by ActBlue. And again it's certainly the right idea.
[Edit: I had said that Jahana Hayes (CT) and Pat Ryan (NY) seemed odd choices but others here point out that isn't so. My mistake in the latter case from misereading his term on Ballotopedia.]
So I just did an independent search for those two candidates specifically and these were among the first couple of hits. I’m not really familiar with either publication but they seem like pretty reliable to me.
Jahana Hayes (CT-05)
According to this article, she seems to have won that seat multiple times but the last time she was ran against Hogan (who is running again this year), she won by a little over 2,000 votes - which is a fairly narrow victory considering the money that was spent there. https://ctmirror.org/2023/10/02/george-logan-ct-5th-district-running-jahana-hayes/
Pat Ryan (NY-18)
According to this article, NY-18 is one of the only NY districts where Dems are on the defense. I’m not exactly sure why since it also says Biden won it by 8%. But it could be one district that wasn’t helped by the newly approved maps. https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2023/11/08/alison-esposito-looks-to-unseat-pat-ryan-in-hudson-valley-congressional-district
This article is from 11/08/23. I don’t know if the article is wrong or if there is more current information that shows that he is actually running in 2025.
In any case, those two cases didn’t seem like particular outliers but as very plausible close races that are likely to go blue but could probably use some help especially if Trump turnout is higher than expected or Democratic turnout lower than expected. So I think based on your research & swingleft, the VSA picks seem fairly reliable. I appreciate all your thoroughness!
Dan, I think you are mistaken regarding Pat Ryan. He was elected to the US House in the summer of 2022 in a special election, then reran in Nov 2022 and will be running again in Nov of this year. Did you get thrown off by the dates he is serving? Congress was sworn in in early Jan 2023 after the Nov 2022 election and will serve until Jan 2025 for the current term.
You're right - I misread his term. A noob mistake; sorry; I've fixed my post.
Former Governor Larry Hogan (R) just announced he's running for US Senate in Maryland, and he's going to be tough to beat. People think he's a moderate, but he's not going to DC to help Democrats, he's going to be another vote against voting rights, tax fairness, and every other good thing we want to do.
I've read otherwise, that it's more of a Hail Mary by the GOP.
Or an attempt at a Hail Larry.
I hope you're right! I tend to be one of these: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/LS1owdcwWjsNWtjS/?mibextid=oFDknk
I heard that he was briefly flirting with joining the “No Labels” ticket so this is still preferable to *that*!
I grew up in MD and still have family there. Hogan won the first time because the Democratic candidate (Lt. Governor under the previous administration) assumed he had it in the bag and ran an uninspired campaign. Democrats just didn't turn out for what was nationally a mid-term election. Hogan was reelected because he'd done a decent job on the economy.
We'll have to see, but with the partisan environment and the Senate in the balance, I don't know how far his good will will go for his Senate bid. MD hasn't had a Republican in the Senate since 1986.
David Trone is the most likely Dem to advance to the general election in 2024. He's currently in the House representing the 6th district and he and his brother founded Total Wine and More, so he has deep pockets.
Speaking of ActBlue: I understand they take a 3.95 % cut, plus tips. That seems exorbitant.
Isn’t there a better way for Democrats to make sure our chosen candidates receive all, or nearly all, of our campaign donations?
Yes, you can send candidates personal checks directly. Check their websites for info.
ActBlue is non-profit. They run a slick, well-maintained site, which does what I need: choose individual candidates and handle monthly donations automatically, changing amounts etc when I want. The one time I asked for help finding the right campaign I got a courteous and knowledgeable answer in a few hours.
So... it would be nice if doing that cost less, and I have no idea how well-run and efficient it really is internally. But a probably-legit 4% is OK with me in these crucial times.
Friends, be very careful about denigrating ActBlue. The technology is incredible easy to use, is very sophisticated and is a central reason we are so dramatically outraising Republicans. The is some of the most important technology developed in the center-left family over the past 25 years, and while it isn't perfect we would not be where we are today without them.
Thank you. If you wish, I would be happy to delete my comment.
How much of that 3.95% is what the credit card companies charge AB? Based on my experience of "opting in" to cover the processing fees and on the Board of a couple of local not-for-profits, almost all of it is going to the credit card companies.
AB is a business, they have employees, expenses, etc., they too need to be able to pay their bills so that they can function. Can't expect them to work for free. They do a great job.
"Yes, we need guidance on where to send money for actual "bang" for the buck."
For previous elections, Prof. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium did analyses of precisely this: In which raises your contribution would likely to have the most "bang for the buck". That was particularly important for Senate races.
Obvious factors impacting his calculus was state population (which correlated with advertising costs), as well as closeness of polls.
Spoiler alert: Wyoming, Alaska and Maine tended to score much better than, say, Texas or Florida.
Sam Wang currently runs The Gerrymandering Project, which is excellent.
Yes, a major factor in determining all where the money goes is can we win the race, which is something that professors and folks outside the business have a harder time getting a handle on. All the things we've taken on here at Hopium have resulted in wins, in part because I can analyze the viability of the races themselves, not just the efficiency.
I commend you for that! And Hopium’s track record is absolutely amazing!
(To his credit, *viability* was always a part of Sam Wang’s analysis as well. No need to throw money at hopeless races, nor at campaigns that already are flush with cash.)
A few more US Senate seats that will need help defending: Rosen (NV), Baldwin (WI), Casey (PA) and who is every running for the AZ seat.
Most people tend to think that will be Ruben Gallego.
Certainly one of Trump's best gifts this cycle have been his comments on abandoning NATO. Shockingly, the NYTs excellent foreign affairs reporter Peter Baker has succumbed to the cover of legitimacy the paper continues to provide Trump.
Here's what I wrote today:
Trump’s NATO Threat Reflects a Wider Shift on America’s Place in the World
Mr. Baker
I have admired your objective reporting on US foreign policy for years.
It sad to see your perspective in this article has been absorbed into current partisan politics.
The existential question of whether the US is safer and wealthier with or without our NATO alliances is not an equivalent question. We absolutely would be in a more dangerous place without our European allies containing Russia's aggressive ambitions.
This article's analysis seems to imply maintaining NATO is an open question. Why ? Because some voters believe Trump's MAGA claims that NATO makes the US weaker. It may validate these dangerous ideas among his base but it's not an "experiment" worth trying in our real world without do overs. Your article might have asked where America would be today if we didn't join WWII.
IMO, the core of Trump's argument is that we'd be better off with Putin and friends taking over European democracies like Hitler and Mussolini tried in the last century.
From this perspective, the real meaning of MAGA is "Make Aryans Great Again" not America as we know it.
Thank you,
Merrill Weingrod
401-480-8003
You can write directly to the Times at.............
peter.baker@nytimes.com
david.halbfinger@nytimes.com
joe.kahn@nytimes.com
We need to call out the Times everyday.
Short and powerful.
What’s going on with the NYT?
My understanding is that their media bias leans left.
Heather Cox Richardson said on Tuesday that the NYT had 6 articles above the fold regarding Biden’s age and that you had to do a bit of digging to find anything about Trump’s remarks on not coming to a NATO country’s aid if they haven’t “paid their bills.”
I don’t subscribe to the NYT so I have no base from which to judge.
But I do know this.
People (including corporations and politicians) are motivated by one of two things:
The carrot or the stick.
I’m wondering if the paper is succumbing to populist pressure or MAGA.
Your thoughts?
Nothing going on at the NYT that hasn't been the case for decades. See, Miller, Judith....
Judy, NYT used to lean left. In fact, I believe it has leaned left since its inception. What’s happening now is that corporate owned media has partnered with the republican party and Trump, because all
they care about is money.
The partnership, as near as I can tell is this:
Corporations will help elect Trump and other republicans in exchange for lower corporate
taxes, ending their obligation to fund half of
their employees’ social security benefit &
chronic underfunding of the IRS so it’s less
likely corporations will be audited.
In order to help Trump and other GOP dopes get elected, corporate owned media has essentially agreed to slant reporting to favor the political “right.” Most corporate owned media is already doing that. As for the people who do the reporting, they either go along with it or lose their jobs.
It’s shocking to see journalists like Peter Baker
sell out democracy because they know better.
It wouldn’t surprise me if journalists are also
being threatened. We know dozens of people in Congress have been threatened by Trump’s
thugs, why wouldn’t they threaten journalists too?
The NYT is politically Republican, have been ever since the Clintons came on the scene. There's another hit piece today by Pamela Paul, where she damns Biden with faint praise, writes innuendo about his cognitive abilities and so on. We see the same from Brian Kerem in Salon ( and Salon is leftist; IMO never expect the far left to have your back, never ) today; clearly Biden is better but, they gotta say bad things about him. We are going to be fighting these folks as well as the Rs this cycle. And now they are gearing up for hearings in the House to have Hur testify? There are powerful forces who do not want another Biden term. And that's not conspiracy theory; it is rather obvious. Looks like I'm going to have to get into the trenches a little more deeply this cycle. Our best allies this cycle? It's going to be former Rs and Never Trumpers. I feel better about them than I do the Norman Solomons or the gang at The Nation. Once MAGA is crushed, we can get back to arguing over worker rights and school vouchers with the Chris Christies and Charlie Bakers of the world.
Honestly, one of the staunchest supporters of Presisdent Biden has been the Lincoln Project.
And to paraphrase one of Simon's taglines, I'd rather have Rick Wilson on our side than theirs. They haven't been shy about calling out Trump's declining mental capacity, his authoritarian plans, and the danger to our democracy while at the same time talking truthfully about the good economy and Biden's diplomatic successes.
If you haven't been keeping up with them, check out their YouTube Channel at https://www.youtube.com/@TheLincolnProject. They had a really brutal ad after the second E Jean Carrol verdict (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDKNM1XYRsE&t=5s)
Thanks for your insights Fisher. I have no doubt this will get very nasty. The hit pieces will no doubt keep
coming. The stakes are very, very high in this election.
I don't know what will make these people happy; they didn't like Obama, they hated Hillary, they went after Bill Clinton. They hated Al Gore and attacked Kerry for throwing away his medals and reported the swift boat BS like it was a real story. It really doesn't matter who we come up with; if we kicked Biden and Harris to the curb, they'd be saying AA's feel betrayed, and whoever we managed to come up with instead would be unsatisfactory.
I suspect it’s not really about the specific people.
It is about democracy and what democrats stand
for.
Money = the carrot
Potential job loss = the stick
Doing the “right” thing matters not.
Thank you Susan.
Any theories I might have about why the Times sticks to its anti-Biden bias are speculative so I'll say I don't know.
What I do know is that the Times news reporting is overseen by its senior management, AG Sulzberger and Joe Kahn so the anti-Biden attitudes must come from the top. IMO, the Times journalists are self-censoring to stay in line with their bosses. We can advocate for is a more balanced approach to the news which will result in many more stories about the good Biden's policies are achieving for all Americans and fewer stories about how he walks with a shuffle or forgets a date. It is a stunning reversal that we, the American majority understand the great job Biden has done in this first term. The Times, which alleges to report all the News that's fit to print, doesn't believe
those stories will sell newspapers or generate digital clicks.
Used your letter as a template and emailed Baker. Thank you!
Support Josh Stein for governor of North Carolina.
Delighted with what Democrats did in NY and PA this week! As a Democrat working in the deep red Shenandoah Valley, I'd like to also give a shout-out to the Democrats in Oklahoma who didn't win, but came very close. Newsweek wrote that, a "Republican winning an Oklahoma special election on Tuesday night in a deep red area by just five points has sparked concerns about the GOP's performance in November's races.
Republican Erick Harris won House District 39's special election by 261 votes, beating Democrat Regan Raff into second place (50 percent to 45 percent). The election was triggered following former state Representative Ryan Martinez's resignation last September after pleading guilty to a felony offense of being in physical control of a vehicle while intoxicated." Trump beat Biden by 33 points in 2020. Dems working hard in red areas may not get the big, exciting wins, but what they're doing matters. Go Oklahoma!
Democrats are working overtime everywhere!
Hopium Chronicles gives me hope. Thank you for your analysis .
Time to talk about the Senate races?
Too often in my long political life, the structures and some leaders of the Democratic Party have been unable/even unwilling to pull together the citizen energy which exists for small "d" democratic governance. The Party thrives when parallel organizations goose it into line. Thanks for leading this effort this time around, Simon.
Hi all! In the spirit of sharing important efforts needing support with this community, I wanted to share an effort out here in Orange County California. We are less than 3 weeks away from a school board Recall election to remove to MAGA/Moms for Liberty inspired candidates from our district. They have passed anti-Trans policies, siphoned money from public schools for back room deals supporting Hillsdale backed charter schools and are working on a book ban next if this recall fails. Given how grassroots this operation is, we don’t have an organized engine to use volunteer hours from afar, but if you have any spare funds you can donate, that would be SO HELPFUL as we are up against some deep far right pockets. Here is the donation site: https://donorbox.org/citizens-for-the-recall-of-ledesma-ortega-miner-and-rumsey. Here is the broader website with more information on the effort: www.ousdrecall.com. Thank you in advance for anyone who is willing to donate and support this effort!
Good luck!
Simon writes: "I’m not sure what is next for us here..."
My thought relates to the young Black and Latino voters as well as many young Bernie Sanders voters who are looking for an alternative to Joe Biden. I think it is urgent that there be a focus for ALL OF US on Trump planning on implementing the insurrection act and bringing the military into inner cities. This will be the single greatest danger to this country and why Biden must be re-elected. Every constituency must understand the stakes involved with this one proposal that we should assume Trump WILL implement.
Whenever I read about young black men moving towards Trump, I wish heroes like Yusef Salaam would speak up and tell them what Trump used to think about “young black kids” when he wasn’t running for president.
https://youtu.be/jwNxuvxix3I?si=-9wZ-HzLmDmeP3Cq
We need to give strategic donations to win. Here's Jessica Craven's SMART DONATION recommendations:
💰 Jess’s 2023-24 STRATEGIC Giving Recommendations 💰
(updated 2/8/24)
Here are a handful of places I recommend donating to over all others, and why:
1) Run For Something—donate here. RFS recruits young progressives to run for office across the country for municipal, school board, election administrator, county supervisor, and statehouse seats. They offer candidates support, help with volunteer recruitment, and fund their races. Their candidates have a high win rate and their school board candidates absolutely destroyed Moms for Liberty everywhere in November. (Their school board win rate was 72%.) Here’s a list of their recent successes. It’ll blow your mind. Oh, and they elected 138 election clerks this year, including 34 wins against noted election deniers. Their candidates tend to go on to phenomenal things–so they’re also building a bench! SO IMPORTANT! When I say that this organization is saving the country I am not exaggerating. Read their 2024 strategic goal here.
2) Movement Voter Project — donate here (right now, thanks to a generous subscriber, I’m running a 20K matching campaign, so your donations will be doubled up to 20K!). MVP vets and then funds the most effective grassroots organizing groups working on the ground in swing (and other) states. In short, they are funding today’s Stacey Abrams, everywhere. If we want youth turnout, BIPOC turnout, and a growing progressive electorate then funding MVP is how we best get it. They’re absolutely amazing. See their 2024 plan here—your donations will go towards executing it.
3) The States Project — donate here. An absolutely vital group focussed exclusively on winning state-level elections and flipping state legislatures. They also help candidates and elected reps write good progressive policy. They are so, so good at what they do—they are the reason we won in VA, and also the reason we had the brilliant election in 2022 that we did. Flipping the MI statehouse? That was them. Flipping the MN statehouse? Them too. I could go on. Read the Times article about them here. See their 2024 target states here. They have tons of other good press on their website. (If you want to give to a specific “Giving Circle” you can give to mine! But the money will go to them either way).
4) Give to voter registration groups in Mecklenberg County, North Carolina!, NC is SO STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT that I am working with All in For NC to do just that. We need to win North Carolina in November, and we can. NC has a new state Dem party chair and she’s 🔥. Mecklenberg County has millions of potential Dem voters and the Meck Cty Dems have proven themselves extremely capable under new leadership as well. So donate here to help with this cause–we’re trying to raise 500K to register 40,000 voters there!.
5) For voter registration in all swing states support Field Team Six. They have data to back up their success and they require just around $3 to register one purple voter (Dem or DTS).
6) Sister District has a small selection of grassroots organizations they are supporting via their “State Bridges” project. They also do a deep research dive into who is most effective. These orgs are all WELL WORTH your money. One fund covers eight orgs. Donate here.
7) Give to an Every State Blue fund to help statehouse candidates in Ohio, Missouri, and Texas. (Read this to see why this is so important.) They are also raising money for Tennessee and Indiana.
8) Galvanize Action is an astonishingly smart and effective organization working to connect with and sway white female voters–many of whom voted for Trump in 2016. They use a data-backed approach, targeted communications, and lots of focus groups to figure out what messages will best work with this vital demographic. I don’t know of ANY other organization doing this work, and Galvanize does it extraordinarily well. Highly recommend it. Give here.
WANT HELP DECIDING WHERE TO GIVE STRATEGICALLY?
1) Sign up for updates with Focus For Democracy–they do deep, deep research dives on which orgs are most effective at turning out voters and then raise money for them. They’re having a meeting on Tuesday, February 13th at 5PM PT /8PM ET– Click here to register.
● They will share their 2024 strategy and explain how their recommendations are timed for each stage of the presidential election cycle.
● They will be recommending organizations that have funding gaps and have proven records of delivering net Democratic votes.
2) Subscribe to Blue Tent. Blue Tent helps donors at all levels give effectively to elect Democrats and enact policies for a fairer America.
3) Join a group doing the vetting for you. These are EXCELLENT groups, most of them run by dedicated volunteers. Force Multiplier, Walk the Walk, Airlift, Flip the Vote.
There are many other worthy places to give, but if you’re asking me for bang on your buck, you can’t do better than any or all of the above places.
Thank you Patsy,
Love having such a broad scope of resources. Being able to access information like this is one of my major reasons for joining Hopium Chronicles. Your generosity is much appreciated.
Hi Simon. In addition to targets of opportunity maybe we can focus on voter registration. That will help in Nov and can be done in the background for many of us. Maybe we can do something with NC Dems to help boost registration in our adopted state.
Squeaker Johnson can never be Speaker because Kevin surrendered power to the crazies in January 2023 and the entire GOP does not have the brains, guts or honesty to take it back. Kevin was a Squeaker from day one, never Speaker.
Johnson claimed the Dem win in NY3 is not a "bellwether," and we can't tell if he's lying to himself or the MAGA base. Kevin is a famous liar, but Johnson isn't much better, and isn't half the politician.
No anti-choice Republican can beat Biden, and few anti-choice Republicans will be in the House a year from now.
Gosh y'all, I'm so tired of all this winning! /s
See you tonight!!
Best one yet 🤣
I'll add another group that could use support is The Civics Center. <https://www.thecivicscenter.org> They operate in local high schools, helping to organize and run high school Seniors voter registration drives.
I love the Civics Center and have written postcards and letters for them as well as sending $$. The Civics Center is a 501(c)3 organization, so any donations are tax-deductible.