I assume he'll visit the rural parts of the battleground states, but if time resources permit I hope he can spend a little time in places like Ohio and Missouri. I think it would be such a morale boost to local Dems and the incursion into "red" territory would rattle Trump.
There are blue and purple areas in Ohio and Missouri and other Red states. We have winnable down-ticket races – and I’m convinced Walz would indeed boost our chances.
It's interesting that I keep having Sheehy ads pop-up when I visit DKos (I'm in MT, BTW) about Jon Tester wanting to take away guns. Walz is a responsible gun owner with commonsense views on firearms and, apparently, something of a marksman. I think he can easily diffuse that R attack on Tester and point out how "weird" it is that this carpet-bagger guy (Sheehy) is pretending to speak for Montanans.
Idea: To counter that Sheehy BS, Walz could do an ad with Tester where they are target shooting. Final line: Tester invites Walz to go hunting together. (If Tester is a gun owner and hunter.)
And one of them could throw some shade on Sheehey's accidental discharge of a firearm in Glacier National Park etc as that whole kerfuffle is on everyone's radar here.
I think Montana is hard to poll and there is a lot of noise. But the fact that a good poll exists is encouraging. A lot will depend on the vibes going into election day and how enthusiastic GOP voters are.
"A Text Arcade is a super-fast text bank that costs $25 a ticket. 100% of your ticket price goes to funding your 1,400 texts. (To put this in perspective, it costs a volunteer $1,300 to send 1,400 postcards!) We pay for about half of those texts in order to keep the ticket price reasonable, so shout-outs (shouts-out?) to our donors who enable us to do that!" So far we've sent millions of texts. I've sent tens of thousands -- mostly to blue wall states.
I donate, do BYOP and also volunteer on other text sites. I have more than one BYOP account -- through Google Workspace. I do approximately 300 "free" BYOP texts daily.
Some people do "social storming" -- sending info to Facebook, Tiktoc, etc. Some comment on sites such as Beyonce, Taylor Swift, and attach this to prospective Democrats. https://voterizer.org/
Isn’t it? I’ve been giving money to the Tester campaign and looking to do some texting/phone banking for him. We need to keep the Senate and flip the House so President Harris can get legislation through!
Just got paid yesterday and I donated to NC Dems, NE Blue Dot and Tester. Closing in on 300 Vote Forward letters to NC and am ready to start 100 Blue Wave voter registration postcards for NE.
Regarding Trump's batshit crazy "press conference" nothing says I care about prices like giving a rambling speech in front of an exclusive golf club.
Well, I haven’t seen Cheerios in a long time. But that’s because my wife and I eat hardly any processed or ultra-processed food, so we rarely have a reason to visit the center aisles in the supermarket. Almost all the good stuff is along the walls: produce, dairy, seafood, meat, baked goods...
Thanks so much for focusing on NC! We are working so hard down here and all the extra love makes a huge difference. We are going to be blue after this election with everyone's help!
On a side note, it seems bizarre that New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy is appointing his former chief of staff, George Helmy, to replace disgraced Senator Bob Menendez, who is now resigning.
He should have appointed Andy Kim. The appointment of Helmy seems like a petty revenge against Kim for daring to challenge Gov. Murphy’s own wife, Tammy Murphy, and for upsetting the highly-insular New Jersey political machine.
It could be some pettiness but also interim appointments of people that aren’t going to run is pretty common practice. If Murphy had appointed Ed Kim then he might be accused of trying to unduly influence the election.
Governor Phil Murphy is a Democrat. It would be entirely appropriate for him to appoint Andy Kim, a Democrat, so he could really get to work. Would that give him an advantage in the future election? Sure, but I don’t see anything wrong with that – especially since here we’re talking about the general election, against a Republican, and not a primary election against other Democrats.
It's possible that Andy Kim does not want to vacate his seat in the House. I still hold out a fantasy that we may see the gavel in Hakeem's hands earlier. Just imagine a group of GOP reps sharing a bad batch of tuna sandwiches and having to be immediately hospitalized. Motion to vacate. Speaker Hakeem. Dare to dream.
Wow! Love Shep Fairey’s new artwork. His dad was our family physician when I was a girl. Great family. Salt of the earth. And that Montana poll - SQUEE! Have a beautiful weekend, y’all!!!
Simon is exceptionally deft at connecting dots. Many Dems fail. Folks can see much better when people like Simon make connections.
The Trump guy’s inflation reference was laughable. Trump’s dismissal of COVID as a hoax had a cascading effect, resulting in the collapse of the economy. Guess what happens when it comes roaring back? Inflation hit 9 percent. Not a single GOPer supported the inflation reduction act. Now inflation is under 3 percent. GOPers voted for Big Pharma and against their constituents in lowering prescription drug prices.
Grocery prices did go up. We’re down to a few big super market chains. They know how to corner the market and blame circumstances to jack up food prices. They make huge profits and people have to pay higher prices. That’s why we had inflation.
Also chuckled at his “news conference” reference. He must think Trump’s Fidel Castro-like long rants score points.
FWIW the Tester poll is from the same outfit that released a trump +2 or +3 poll today and the breakdowns on both the Trump and Tester poll are highly implausible IMO…Trump +8 with young voters, Tester up with men…the sponsoring “news” Org also looks suspect to me…just spawned into Twitter in August and yesterday had 9 followers. It’s also Scott Rasmussen who runs that poll so I sense all sorts of shadiness with those numbers. I obviously think Tester could win but I don’t trust that polling
Definitely not discounting Tester ! More my suspicion of that polling outfit or anything in the orbit of Rasmussen and RCP. I absolutely think Tester can win, but question the margin and breakdowns of all the polls Rasmussen is dropping right now
Sorry - just catching up - Do you know which pollster put out the Tester poll? I am trying to know which polls are A+ rated and which ones are garbage or are republican polls. Thank you.
Sure, but ... "We're not going back!" We are moving forward is a major campaign message that is a huge contrast with the regressive maga movement and trump's constant griping about the past. The message is related to words that people shout at rallies and part of the Freedom message. Other messages include "When we fight, We Win" and the promise of "a future where everyone has the opportunity not just to get by, but to get ahead."
Thank you for the ongoing daily poll updates. I’m so sick of reading the Washington Post and their polling averages, which have polls averaged in that are several weeks old. Then they wrote stories about how Harris is trending but Trump still leads nationally and in battleground states which is blatantly untrue in real time. CNN does it too. Shameful media coverage continues.
Agree. Averaging polls is irresponsible and unprofessional, and highly misleading. Responsible statistics doesn't work that way, and it's hard enough to design a single poll that actually works. If ALL the variables are consistent, it is possible to identify trends in consecutive polls. But mashing a bunch of polls together that have different variables is lazy and dumb.
Averaging polls is like averaging baseball scores with hockey scores in order to find out what is happening in sports. Or in the cases you site, averaging all the baseball scores over a week to find out how your team is doing. Makes no sense. And, yes, I have a degree in mathematics.
Great analogies. Grad statistics, here, as a core element of my degrees in Science and Environmental Studies. Great class. I loved math all through school, but that class really brought home how tenuous statistics is as a discipline. It is a useful tool, but anyone who thinks it works like regular mathematics doesn't know enough to be able to use it effectively.
I'm happy you loved math. Mathematics is totally loveable. I don't have a grad degree, but I have multiple BS's in engineering and math. I cannot stand the way cable news distorts mathematics to promote their propaganda. Here's a statistic from the US Census analysis of the 2020 campaign: 10 million more women than men voted in 2020. That means women currently are 53% of the electorate. When the NYT publishes polls that weights men and women equally, they are a committing a sin against mathematics. I used to have Nate Silver's book, but when he started distorting math, I threw it in the dumpster. I've had it with the liars who are always given a camera and a mic.
I lived in Montana for a few years. Tester has that Montana vibe that resonates with other Montanans. That’s why he keeps getting re-elected in a ruby red state.
His only threat to being re-elected is Montana has been flooded with hard core trumpers & maga supporters relocating to the state from California & Washington. These individuals don’t know Tester and Montana culture and will simply vote for anyone with an R next to their name. That’s his threat…
I know the format didn't seem to permit it, but the R guy blatantly lied about inflation since thee IRA -- it has gone way down since then and ideally it should have been corrected.
Relieved to hear the Senate can happen for Dems. Also am impressed at Harris-Walz emphasis on plans for affordable housing. Last night’s phone bank/postcarding event was fun. Looking forward to more.
Seriously - I couldn't stop thinking about it yesterday. My historical parallel/2016 PTSD has been flaring up lately. Time for postcards !
In general they should engage in more rural areas.
Walz should do a rural America tour, he speaks their language and is one of them. I think he’d be really effective in those communities.
Yes! And I am convinced he could give our Democratic candidates, both for Congress and down-ticket, a lift in those demographics. That really matters.
That said, time is short, and I’m sure Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are setting good priorities for where their time is best used.
I assume he'll visit the rural parts of the battleground states, but if time resources permit I hope he can spend a little time in places like Ohio and Missouri. I think it would be such a morale boost to local Dems and the incursion into "red" territory would rattle Trump.
There are blue and purple areas in Ohio and Missouri and other Red states. We have winnable down-ticket races – and I’m convinced Walz would indeed boost our chances.
If that rattles Trump & MAGA, so much the better.
I agree, Dan.
It's interesting that I keep having Sheehy ads pop-up when I visit DKos (I'm in MT, BTW) about Jon Tester wanting to take away guns. Walz is a responsible gun owner with commonsense views on firearms and, apparently, something of a marksman. I think he can easily diffuse that R attack on Tester and point out how "weird" it is that this carpet-bagger guy (Sheehy) is pretending to speak for Montanans.
Idea: To counter that Sheehy BS, Walz could do an ad with Tester where they are target shooting. Final line: Tester invites Walz to go hunting together. (If Tester is a gun owner and hunter.)
I like it!
And one of them could throw some shade on Sheehey's accidental discharge of a firearm in Glacier National Park etc as that whole kerfuffle is on everyone's radar here.
I think Montana is hard to poll and there is a lot of noise. But the fact that a good poll exists is encouraging. A lot will depend on the vibes going into election day and how enthusiastic GOP voters are.
That new Tester–Sheehy poll is a relief. This should inspire us to more good work in Montana and elsewhere!
The FT 6 Textarcade for Sept 5, includes texts to Montana. Need to add new BYOP.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
What exactly is the Text Arcade? I've done the BYOP thing but the arcade doesn't seem explained well. Maybe it makes sense if you do it.
FT 6 concentrates on non-registered folk who trend Democratic. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24
"A Text Arcade is a super-fast text bank that costs $25 a ticket. 100% of your ticket price goes to funding your 1,400 texts. (To put this in perspective, it costs a volunteer $1,300 to send 1,400 postcards!) We pay for about half of those texts in order to keep the ticket price reasonable, so shout-outs (shouts-out?) to our donors who enable us to do that!" So far we've sent millions of texts. I've sent tens of thousands -- mostly to blue wall states.
I donate, do BYOP and also volunteer on other text sites. I have more than one BYOP account -- through Google Workspace. I do approximately 300 "free" BYOP texts daily.
Some people do "social storming" -- sending info to Facebook, Tiktoc, etc. Some comment on sites such as Beyonce, Taylor Swift, and attach this to prospective Democrats. https://voterizer.org/
https://social.fieldteam6.org/toolkit/815435f9-454f-446d-a1ce-5fd7a4188713
Isn’t it? I’ve been giving money to the Tester campaign and looking to do some texting/phone banking for him. We need to keep the Senate and flip the House so President Harris can get legislation through!
And Judges! I've been giving to Tester's campaign monthly as well!
I keep send Jon $ glad to see it might be making a difference 🤠
Encouraging news out of Montana!
Just got paid yesterday and I donated to NC Dems, NE Blue Dot and Tester. Closing in on 300 Vote Forward letters to NC and am ready to start 100 Blue Wave voter registration postcards for NE.
Regarding Trump's batshit crazy "press conference" nothing says I care about prices like giving a rambling speech in front of an exclusive golf club.
Pity the journalists didn’t ask Trump to quote the price of milk and Cheerios. I doubt he could get within 50 percent.
Seriously. He looked at the Cheerios and said he hadn't seem them in a long time. The guy is an idiot.
Well, I haven’t seen Cheerios in a long time. But that’s because my wife and I eat hardly any processed or ultra-processed food, so we rarely have a reason to visit the center aisles in the supermarket. Almost all the good stuff is along the walls: produce, dairy, seafood, meat, baked goods...
You are charitable. His own SOS called Trump an “effing moron.” Tillerson used a more colorful word than “effing.”
Tillerson has it wrong. Melania is keeping her distance, as is Stormy Daniels.
Trump is a "non-effing moron". Which in part explains his Incel rage.
The guys on Pod Save America said membership starts a $500,000. How out of touch can you be.
Thanks so much for focusing on NC! We are working so hard down here and all the extra love makes a huge difference. We are going to be blue after this election with everyone's help!
You're welcome. NC is on the front lines of saving our democracy!
Thank you!
On a side note, it seems bizarre that New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy is appointing his former chief of staff, George Helmy, to replace disgraced Senator Bob Menendez, who is now resigning.
He should have appointed Andy Kim. The appointment of Helmy seems like a petty revenge against Kim for daring to challenge Gov. Murphy’s own wife, Tammy Murphy, and for upsetting the highly-insular New Jersey political machine.
It could be some pettiness but also interim appointments of people that aren’t going to run is pretty common practice. If Murphy had appointed Ed Kim then he might be accused of trying to unduly influence the election.
Andy Kim - no idea why I typed Ed
Governor Phil Murphy is a Democrat. It would be entirely appropriate for him to appoint Andy Kim, a Democrat, so he could really get to work. Would that give him an advantage in the future election? Sure, but I don’t see anything wrong with that – especially since here we’re talking about the general election, against a Republican, and not a primary election against other Democrats.
It's possible that Andy Kim does not want to vacate his seat in the House. I still hold out a fantasy that we may see the gavel in Hakeem's hands earlier. Just imagine a group of GOP reps sharing a bad batch of tuna sandwiches and having to be immediately hospitalized. Motion to vacate. Speaker Hakeem. Dare to dream.
I second that motion.
good point.
Wow! Love Shep Fairey’s new artwork. His dad was our family physician when I was a girl. Great family. Salt of the earth. And that Montana poll - SQUEE! Have a beautiful weekend, y’all!!!
Simon is exceptionally deft at connecting dots. Many Dems fail. Folks can see much better when people like Simon make connections.
The Trump guy’s inflation reference was laughable. Trump’s dismissal of COVID as a hoax had a cascading effect, resulting in the collapse of the economy. Guess what happens when it comes roaring back? Inflation hit 9 percent. Not a single GOPer supported the inflation reduction act. Now inflation is under 3 percent. GOPers voted for Big Pharma and against their constituents in lowering prescription drug prices.
Grocery prices did go up. We’re down to a few big super market chains. They know how to corner the market and blame circumstances to jack up food prices. They make huge profits and people have to pay higher prices. That’s why we had inflation.
Also chuckled at his “news conference” reference. He must think Trump’s Fidel Castro-like long rants score points.
Spoiler alert: They don’t.
Price gouging doesn’t relate to everyone. Need a stronger connection… for example:
“YOU are paying more because large corporations blame inflation to jack up prices to make more money. They are causing inflation.”
Something along those lines.
Same applies to the oil company monopoly and prices at the pump. (I love capitalism, which works when a few companies don’t get to corner the market)
Forward is great. Forward is nice.
But isn't the Harris campaign using the word Freedom
I think their messaging is “We’re Not Going Back/Forward” and their campaign song is “Freedom” by Beyonce.
FWIW the Tester poll is from the same outfit that released a trump +2 or +3 poll today and the breakdowns on both the Trump and Tester poll are highly implausible IMO…Trump +8 with young voters, Tester up with men…the sponsoring “news” Org also looks suspect to me…just spawned into Twitter in August and yesterday had 9 followers. It’s also Scott Rasmussen who runs that poll so I sense all sorts of shadiness with those numbers. I obviously think Tester could win but I don’t trust that polling
The Tester race is close and we can win. Having a Republican pollster put out a poll showing Tester up helps.
Definitely not discounting Tester ! More my suspicion of that polling outfit or anything in the orbit of Rasmussen and RCP. I absolutely think Tester can win, but question the margin and breakdowns of all the polls Rasmussen is dropping right now
Sorry - just catching up - Do you know which pollster put out the Tester poll? I am trying to know which polls are A+ rated and which ones are garbage or are republican polls. Thank you.
I love the new Kamala Harris “Forward” art too. It captures her beauty, strength and determination.
Glad to hear about the $40 billion housing innovation fund so builders can be more innovative and more people can be homeowners.
Isn’t FORWARD what Hillary had? Isn’t Harris FREEDOM?
I personally don’t like forward, but loooove freedom
Sure, but ... "We're not going back!" We are moving forward is a major campaign message that is a huge contrast with the regressive maga movement and trump's constant griping about the past. The message is related to words that people shout at rallies and part of the Freedom message. Other messages include "When we fight, We Win" and the promise of "a future where everyone has the opportunity not just to get by, but to get ahead."
Freedom, opportunity, forward/backward there is no one word. It is all of them.
Thank you for the ongoing daily poll updates. I’m so sick of reading the Washington Post and their polling averages, which have polls averaged in that are several weeks old. Then they wrote stories about how Harris is trending but Trump still leads nationally and in battleground states which is blatantly untrue in real time. CNN does it too. Shameful media coverage continues.
Here's my take: https://danielsolomon.substack.com/p/smart-money
Good! I’ve added a tangential reply.
Agree. Averaging polls is irresponsible and unprofessional, and highly misleading. Responsible statistics doesn't work that way, and it's hard enough to design a single poll that actually works. If ALL the variables are consistent, it is possible to identify trends in consecutive polls. But mashing a bunch of polls together that have different variables is lazy and dumb.
Averaging polls is like averaging baseball scores with hockey scores in order to find out what is happening in sports. Or in the cases you site, averaging all the baseball scores over a week to find out how your team is doing. Makes no sense. And, yes, I have a degree in mathematics.
Great analogies. Grad statistics, here, as a core element of my degrees in Science and Environmental Studies. Great class. I loved math all through school, but that class really brought home how tenuous statistics is as a discipline. It is a useful tool, but anyone who thinks it works like regular mathematics doesn't know enough to be able to use it effectively.
I'm happy you loved math. Mathematics is totally loveable. I don't have a grad degree, but I have multiple BS's in engineering and math. I cannot stand the way cable news distorts mathematics to promote their propaganda. Here's a statistic from the US Census analysis of the 2020 campaign: 10 million more women than men voted in 2020. That means women currently are 53% of the electorate. When the NYT publishes polls that weights men and women equally, they are a committing a sin against mathematics. I used to have Nate Silver's book, but when he started distorting math, I threw it in the dumpster. I've had it with the liars who are always given a camera and a mic.
I lived in Montana for a few years. Tester has that Montana vibe that resonates with other Montanans. That’s why he keeps getting re-elected in a ruby red state.
His only threat to being re-elected is Montana has been flooded with hard core trumpers & maga supporters relocating to the state from California & Washington. These individuals don’t know Tester and Montana culture and will simply vote for anyone with an R next to their name. That’s his threat…
I know the format didn't seem to permit it, but the R guy blatantly lied about inflation since thee IRA -- it has gone way down since then and ideally it should have been corrected.
I would love to see the four freedoms in a graphic design that we could post. Any designers here?
Relieved to hear the Senate can happen for Dems. Also am impressed at Harris-Walz emphasis on plans for affordable housing. Last night’s phone bank/postcarding event was fun. Looking forward to more.