An absolute flood of red wave polls this week is a sign Trump thinks the election is slipping away from him. Means we need to keep working hard all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I completely agree. This is the most anxious time of my life, and having a strong voice of calm and reason has prevented me from spiraling. Immense gratitude.
FT 6? Me too. On Saturday, FT 6 will be sending 800,000 last chance texts to unregistered North Carolinians who trend Democratic. Mass texting on Saturday. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
In some states. NC, MI, WI, MT, NV registrations remain open and FT 6 is still registering new Democrats. BYOP, free, is texting into MI, NC, NV, WI as I type...https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
It says so much that the only anxiety I now allow myself to feel is whether or not I've missed Simon's daily update. Also: J Lo! Also: Walz in Bucks County! Also: Trump the Trucker (Not)! Also: We Ds in PA are mighty. Our voting system is not. It would break your heart to see just how many ballots need curing, thanks to the system here, and just how long so many of those cures take. Were we to have Early In Person in PA what you are seeing in the early tally would look quite different (in a good way).
Early in person in NC is awesomely easy ... 57% female votes when I checked last. And I really hope the 260,000 people who took the time and energy to vote against T in the R primary (when there was no chance he was going to lose the nomination) are voting against him now! Fingers crossed.
A changed system would be great. I did hear that the many at-capacity PA ballot cure calls have been so effective that a recent one was repurposed into a (routine) “ballot chase” (calling to be sure that mail ballot voters whose vote is not yet recorded get them into drop boxes by E-Day or if it did not reach them, going to the county to get a replacement).
Every morning I wake up and sit quietly with my eyes closed for a few minutes and imagine a world where Donald Trump is no longer a major topic of conversation… Let’s make that happen! Four days to go, all gas, no brakes! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
I know his base doesn’t disappear when he loses, but no one has been able to rally them other than him. He has some secret sauce that the other Rs can’t seem to emulate.
Carnival Barker worked on his reality show that was all pretty much fake. The republicans and the media have and continue to enable him. Sadly, there is a large group of people that love him. They embrace his lies, racism and buffoonery.
✊🏻 💙 I am going to cry when Harris is declared the winner, then I'm going to cry again when Harris/Walz and their families come out and then again when I watch the inauguration.
He gives permission to-- no, celebrates-- people being their worst selves. There's no call to be better than you think you can be. It's only a call to embrace all of your worst instincts. That's validating and easy for many, many people. Certainly easier than digging deep, self reflecting, being intellectually honest, and rising to your best instincts. IMO, it's why so many people claim to follow Jesus, but ignore 80% of what he taught (they love the 20% in Revelation, though!). The 80% of what he taught was a freakin' hard way to live. The 20% in Revelation is fun and easy.
I am so visualizing this happening, I so want my daughters and especially my granddaughter to witness this moment in the history of the world, the first women President of the United States.🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Every hotel we looked at in Washington, DC itself was booked, or was charging $1,000 per night per person! We got a reservation at one of the Dulles airport hotels in Loudon, Virginia for a reasonable rate and will take the WMATA Silver Line train to and from DC. We did this for the Obama 2009 inauguration and had a blast!
We were told to be at the train station in Virginia by 5:30 a.m. if we wanted to get to the Washington Mall viewing area by noon! Many full trains passed the station while we were waiting! I remember doing the "penquin walk" into the train station, the train itself, then exiting the DC station with the crowd. Got to the mall around 10:00 a.m.
We were about halfway between the Capitol and the Washington Monument in the famous photo of his crowd. Fortunately, they had multiple giant TV screens on either side of the Mall!
Simon, thanks so much for the closing strong episode this week on how we move forward from our broken legacy media. I'm having another good day on the phones today, reminding voters they can still vote today and Friday or on Election Day. Chop wood, carry water.
As per Puck, the word out of Mar-a-Lago is that deep anxiety is setting in, replacing the early euphoria at the red EV turnout numbers. Now, cue the heartbreak music that Simon found so devastating (I feel your pain, Simon!), it seems that that early alleged 'R wave' was actually Haley Republicans rushing to the pollling booth to give the bird to DJT. The MAGAts' plunge into sobriety, really their emotional comeuppance, delights me more than it probably should.
Live by self-delusion, die by the (small-d) democratic sword.
Too funny. Seems that way. Although in Jack Smith's unsealed indictment, almost everyone was telling Trump he was going to lose, so he/they unleashed the Big Lie. I'm not sure he's even convinced that he actually won in 2020, as he's slipped up now at least twice admitting that he "lost just by a whisker" or "just by 8,000 votes in Arizona". Just a total clown car all around.
It's a relatively new online media company. From the snip I received ...
"The Trump campaign has paused its premature celebration and fallen into sweat mode, as early-voting numbers indicate more women are turning up than men in must-win Pennsylvania, and operatives are bringing out the briefcases for lawfare. “They’re going so crazy here,” says a source.
We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that...
They were deluding themselves with the early numbers - there was nothing much to glean either way from them - now that’s there’s evidence it’s not what they deluded themselves into believing I’m surprised they actually believe it. But when trump “truthed” out that nonsense about PA voter fraud it was clear they were realizing the gig is up in the blue wall.
Most of the polling models are based on past R/D/I categories but they are also polling potential voters in the sample sizes who declare their intention to vote for a candidate. Any thoughts from data folks on how much this could be off given indicated crossover voting? Seems like there could be some huge misses here - or are pollsters factoring that in with the data coming in from people who have already cast their vote?
I am so confused. How can most reputable polls show the VP up by 1 or 2 points while those who have voted show her with much higher votes? Can someone explain this? Who is lying and why?
They can both be right. For example, the Marist poll of PA out yesterday showed Harris +28 among mail ballots and Trump +10 among ED voters. Since the mail ballots should represent about one-third of the total vote in PA this year (based on the 2020 total), this works out to Harris +2 overall.
I almost feel like if Harris were to win by 2 in a state like PA, with how close it's been the last two cycles, that would be extremely impressive. Thank you for the explanation!
Let's take an overly simplified example with three demographic characteristics - gender (women vs. men), race (white vs. non-white) and education (college degree vs. non-college degree). The pollster finds samples of each combination (which is easier for some groups than others) and gets them to take the poll.
Even if there are no obvious problems which can lead to the sample population (i.e., people who took the poll) not representing the general poputation, or poorly written questions that can introduce bias in their answers, the polling organization still has to figure out who is likely to vote so they can come up with a composite number that gets trumpeted in the NY Times or Washington Post. And the legit polling organizations do that by looking back at prior elections and making minor tweaks!
But what election is comparable to this one? Because of the Dobbs decision, the gender gap is probably at it's widest. Kamala Harris does better if more women vote and they are coming out in large numbers during early voting - larger than what was baked into the poll. Ditto for younger voters, who have historically voted a lot less consistently than older voters - but are likely to favor Harris over Trump.
And then there are the late breaking voter registrations. NC allows same day registration during early voting - even though the registration deadline (which would allow you to vote on election day) was Oct 11th.
I have been doing some poll observing here in Mecklenburg County., NC, as I did in the 2022 midterms. I have been seeing clumps of first-time voters in much larger numbers than were evident in 2022, suggesting that friends are heading to the polls together.
This is in part due to the result of an effective ground game by the Democrats and youth-oriented grassroots groups. Tuesday was National Vote Early Day (https://voteearlyday.org/). The polling place I was observing for the afternoon had a phenomal number of "first time voter" callouts from ~ 3:30 - 5 pm. At the end of the day that one polling place had collected 25 same-day voter registration forms. I have also heard that the two polling locations up in the University area have been seeing high numbers of college students registering during the EV period.
thank you Simon!!! Self report..... Phone banked yesterday afternoon and then again last night. going to canvas in CD-02 in AL tomorrow for Shomari Figures-- hopeful that his name will become more familiar to all of us soon! And just took off work for early part of next week so I can go back to NC for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. All gas no brakes!!! Thanks everyone for the encouragement and for your service! GO TEAM.
It is truly my pleasure. I find canvassing less stressful than phonebanking and I am lucky to live within driving distance of Charlotte. And I always encourage everyone to try canvassing at least once. (Almost all of us live within a few hours of a swing state or a swing district, and it is much less intimidating once you get started, especially if you can go with an extroverted friend.) This book has really gotten me in the right frame of mind: https://elizabethchur.com/
thanks Simon you keep my spirits up with positive and hopeful news - my acupuncturist said she is treating more patients with anxiety and fear over this election then she has ever seen - I feel the angst of not only our country but the world at large wondering too what will be!!!!
I learned to take these jobs reports skeptically as they are often revised; the ADP report was far better. Won't be surprised if it isn't revised up. I think we have the momentum. Feeling good.
I ended up buying a couple of extra rolls which was a good thing since I ended up writing some extra postcards for several last-minute postcard campaigns.
I ran into two strangers at the post office inside mail drop, on the day that Postcards to Swing States has designated as our mail date for NC postcards. One was mailing the same postcards as me and the other was mailing Vote Forward letters (which I also did).
I felt like I had met some fellow members of the sisterhood of activists!
LP has been going in hard for us and for Democracy. Love them!!!
I really can't thank you enough, Simon. Your steadying voice is a lifeline in these terrifying times.
YES God Bless for cutting through the noise machine
I completely agree. This is the most anxious time of my life, and having a strong voice of calm and reason has prevented me from spiraling. Immense gratitude.
THIS!!!
Same here thankyou-wise!
YES! I've been injecting Simon, Tom Bonier, Joe Trippi and Jess Craven straight into my veins for months. Appreciate all of you so much!
Thanks for reminding me about Joe Trippi. I put today’s episode of his podcast under my tongue and it’s already taking effect.
skipped the Halloween parties last night and sent 8,000 texts to WI & CA
FT 6? Me too. On Saturday, FT 6 will be sending 800,000 last chance texts to unregistered North Carolinians who trend Democratic. Mass texting on Saturday. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
In some states. NC, MI, WI, MT, NV registrations remain open and FT 6 is still registering new Democrats. BYOP, free, is texting into MI, NC, NV, WI as I type...https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
It also has a ballot curing website. https://www.fieldteam6.org/ballot-curing
Yes!
I had a crazy BYOP day and sent out close to 700 texts
NV Victory Texting
https://www.mobilize.us/2024nvvictory/event/692597/
WFP Tuesday Text Party
https://www.mobilize.us/workingfamilies/event/545747/
Text Bank For Debbie Mucarsel-Powell!
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/645766/
"TAKE BACK THE HOUSE!" in 2024 as a DCCC Texter - GOTV Schedule
https://www.mobilize.us/dccc/event/683530/
Mobilizing Michigan: Voter Mobilization Text Bank
https://www.mobilize.us/2024mivictory/event/627973/
BYOP Textbanking - Register Dems in swing states!
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/433467/
Text Banking with Team Cartwright
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/694124/
Textbank to Register Voters
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/680697/
AZ Daily Star (Tucson, Arizona) endorsed Kamala in this morning’s edition.
It says so much that the only anxiety I now allow myself to feel is whether or not I've missed Simon's daily update. Also: J Lo! Also: Walz in Bucks County! Also: Trump the Trucker (Not)! Also: We Ds in PA are mighty. Our voting system is not. It would break your heart to see just how many ballots need curing, thanks to the system here, and just how long so many of those cures take. Were we to have Early In Person in PA what you are seeing in the early tally would look quite different (in a good way).
Early in person in NC is awesomely easy ... 57% female votes when I checked last. And I really hope the 260,000 people who took the time and energy to vote against T in the R primary (when there was no chance he was going to lose the nomination) are voting against him now! Fingers crossed.
A changed system would be great. I did hear that the many at-capacity PA ballot cure calls have been so effective that a recent one was repurposed into a (routine) “ballot chase” (calling to be sure that mail ballot voters whose vote is not yet recorded get them into drop boxes by E-Day or if it did not reach them, going to the county to get a replacement).
Every morning I wake up and sit quietly with my eyes closed for a few minutes and imagine a world where Donald Trump is no longer a major topic of conversation… Let’s make that happen! Four days to go, all gas, no brakes! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
What a wonderful world that would be.
I know his base doesn’t disappear when he loses, but no one has been able to rally them other than him. He has some secret sauce that the other Rs can’t seem to emulate.
Blatant racism and carnival barker
It’s more than that. He was on a successful reality TV show that rehabilitated his image as some genius businessman. People spent years watching him.
You’ll be hard pressed to get that plus all the other nonsense in one package.
Carnival Barker worked on his reality show that was all pretty much fake. The republicans and the media have and continue to enable him. Sadly, there is a large group of people that love him. They embrace his lies, racism and buffoonery.
There's more of us than of them. Let's do this
✊🏻 💙 I am going to cry when Harris is declared the winner, then I'm going to cry again when Harris/Walz and their families come out and then again when I watch the inauguration.
He gives permission to-- no, celebrates-- people being their worst selves. There's no call to be better than you think you can be. It's only a call to embrace all of your worst instincts. That's validating and easy for many, many people. Certainly easier than digging deep, self reflecting, being intellectually honest, and rising to your best instincts. IMO, it's why so many people claim to follow Jesus, but ignore 80% of what he taught (they love the 20% in Revelation, though!). The 80% of what he taught was a freakin' hard way to live. The 20% in Revelation is fun and easy.
I visualize Kamala taking the oath of office :)
I think about that too 😁
I cried when she was sworn in as VP, and I’ll be doing it again on January 20th
Me too, I can see it so clearly!
I think about who President-elect Harris might pick for various cabinet positions.
I also think about what I want to do differently in the next election cycle. I feel like I learned a lot during this one.
Shorter election season and no Trump! Will he ever stop running?
I like to remind myself he’s old and can’t live forever. My 76 year old dad’s life goal is to outlive him.
🙏🏻 That your dad outlives Trump.
I too want to stay involved with strengthening our democracy after the election
I have learned amazing things being part of Hopium and want to pay it forward
The amount of knowledge I have gained in this cycle is amazing.
Trump is a world champion! Judd Trump – the former Snooker World Champion. Uh, who is this Donald you speak of...?
😅
I think visualization is so powerful- keep it going!
I'm in Charlotte, NC and I can't watch any TV because of the non-stop political ads and, in the case of the GOP, nonstop LIES!!!
One of the wisest noise-reduction decisions we ever made, more than twelve years ago, was getting rid of our TV.
Report from Aurora, Colorado: New poll shows strong support for Amendment 79 guaranteeing reproductive freedom: https://keatingresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/KM-Colorado-Presidential-Election-Polling-Memo-10-31-24-For-Release-2.pdf
Also, booking our flights and hotel for the January inauguration!
Hey Doc, if we Hopium Mates don’t get invited to the Inaugural Ball we should form our own and have a giant party in D.C.
Maybe at Simon's place, with Tug?
😅🇺🇸🐶
I am so visualizing this happening, I so want my daughters and especially my granddaughter to witness this moment in the history of the world, the first women President of the United States.🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
😂
Oh how I wish I had the resources to go! Wonder how many hotels are already booked
Yes!
Every hotel we looked at in Washington, DC itself was booked, or was charging $1,000 per night per person! We got a reservation at one of the Dulles airport hotels in Loudon, Virginia for a reasonable rate and will take the WMATA Silver Line train to and from DC. We did this for the Obama 2009 inauguration and had a blast!
Wow! Exciting. What time did you get to the National Mall in 2009?
We were told to be at the train station in Virginia by 5:30 a.m. if we wanted to get to the Washington Mall viewing area by noon! Many full trains passed the station while we were waiting! I remember doing the "penquin walk" into the train station, the train itself, then exiting the DC station with the crowd. Got to the mall around 10:00 a.m.
We were about halfway between the Capitol and the Washington Monument in the famous photo of his crowd. Fortunately, they had multiple giant TV screens on either side of the Mall!
Encouraging information Simon. Thank You!
150 calls to Georgia and PA last night. Goal of another 150 tonight. Canvassing in Bucks County til I drop this weekend. All gas, no brakes.
THANK YOU
Simon, thanks so much for the closing strong episode this week on how we move forward from our broken legacy media. I'm having another good day on the phones today, reminding voters they can still vote today and Friday or on Election Day. Chop wood, carry water.
As per Puck, the word out of Mar-a-Lago is that deep anxiety is setting in, replacing the early euphoria at the red EV turnout numbers. Now, cue the heartbreak music that Simon found so devastating (I feel your pain, Simon!), it seems that that early alleged 'R wave' was actually Haley Republicans rushing to the pollling booth to give the bird to DJT. The MAGAts' plunge into sobriety, really their emotional comeuppance, delights me more than it probably should.
Live by self-delusion, die by the (small-d) democratic sword.
(Add the B-word or not as you see fit.)
Delicious! Oh to be a fly on the wall of Mar-a-lago!
Just watch out for those flying bottles of ketchup.
🤣🤣
I’m actually quite surprised. I thought they were able to convince themselves of anything?!?
Too funny. Seems that way. Although in Jack Smith's unsealed indictment, almost everyone was telling Trump he was going to lose, so he/they unleashed the Big Lie. I'm not sure he's even convinced that he actually won in 2020, as he's slipped up now at least twice admitting that he "lost just by a whisker" or "just by 8,000 votes in Arizona". Just a total clown car all around.
What/who is “Puck”?
It's a relatively new online media company. From the snip I received ...
"The Trump campaign has paused its premature celebration and fallen into sweat mode, as early-voting numbers indicate more women are turning up than men in must-win Pennsylvania, and operatives are bringing out the briefcases for lawfare. “They’re going so crazy here,” says a source.
We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that...
Keep Reading with a Free Trial"
Thank you.
Thanks that’s enough
They were deluding themselves with the early numbers - there was nothing much to glean either way from them - now that’s there’s evidence it’s not what they deluded themselves into believing I’m surprised they actually believe it. But when trump “truthed” out that nonsense about PA voter fraud it was clear they were realizing the gig is up in the blue wall.
John Heileman (the liberal from the old With All Due Respect show from Bloomberg/MSNBC) is one of the main guys there.
Most of the polling models are based on past R/D/I categories but they are also polling potential voters in the sample sizes who declare their intention to vote for a candidate. Any thoughts from data folks on how much this could be off given indicated crossover voting? Seems like there could be some huge misses here - or are pollsters factoring that in with the data coming in from people who have already cast their vote?
I am so confused. How can most reputable polls show the VP up by 1 or 2 points while those who have voted show her with much higher votes? Can someone explain this? Who is lying and why?
They can both be right. For example, the Marist poll of PA out yesterday showed Harris +28 among mail ballots and Trump +10 among ED voters. Since the mail ballots should represent about one-third of the total vote in PA this year (based on the 2020 total), this works out to Harris +2 overall.
Thank you for the explanation. That makes sense.
I almost feel like if Harris were to win by 2 in a state like PA, with how close it's been the last two cycles, that would be extremely impressive. Thank you for the explanation!
Let's take an overly simplified example with three demographic characteristics - gender (women vs. men), race (white vs. non-white) and education (college degree vs. non-college degree). The pollster finds samples of each combination (which is easier for some groups than others) and gets them to take the poll.
Even if there are no obvious problems which can lead to the sample population (i.e., people who took the poll) not representing the general poputation, or poorly written questions that can introduce bias in their answers, the polling organization still has to figure out who is likely to vote so they can come up with a composite number that gets trumpeted in the NY Times or Washington Post. And the legit polling organizations do that by looking back at prior elections and making minor tweaks!
But what election is comparable to this one? Because of the Dobbs decision, the gender gap is probably at it's widest. Kamala Harris does better if more women vote and they are coming out in large numbers during early voting - larger than what was baked into the poll. Ditto for younger voters, who have historically voted a lot less consistently than older voters - but are likely to favor Harris over Trump.
And then there are the late breaking voter registrations. NC allows same day registration during early voting - even though the registration deadline (which would allow you to vote on election day) was Oct 11th.
I have been doing some poll observing here in Mecklenburg County., NC, as I did in the 2022 midterms. I have been seeing clumps of first-time voters in much larger numbers than were evident in 2022, suggesting that friends are heading to the polls together.
This is in part due to the result of an effective ground game by the Democrats and youth-oriented grassroots groups. Tuesday was National Vote Early Day (https://voteearlyday.org/). The polling place I was observing for the afternoon had a phenomal number of "first time voter" callouts from ~ 3:30 - 5 pm. At the end of the day that one polling place had collected 25 same-day voter registration forms. I have also heard that the two polling locations up in the University area have been seeing high numbers of college students registering during the EV period.
You can't predict that with a poll!!🌊🌊🌊
thank you Simon!!! Self report..... Phone banked yesterday afternoon and then again last night. going to canvas in CD-02 in AL tomorrow for Shomari Figures-- hopeful that his name will become more familiar to all of us soon! And just took off work for early part of next week so I can go back to NC for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. All gas no brakes!!! Thanks everyone for the encouragement and for your service! GO TEAM.
It is truly my pleasure. I find canvassing less stressful than phonebanking and I am lucky to live within driving distance of Charlotte. And I always encourage everyone to try canvassing at least once. (Almost all of us live within a few hours of a swing state or a swing district, and it is much less intimidating once you get started, especially if you can go with an extroverted friend.) This book has really gotten me in the right frame of mind: https://elizabethchur.com/
THANK YOU!
thanks Simon you keep my spirits up with positive and hopeful news - my acupuncturist said she is treating more patients with anxiety and fear over this election then she has ever seen - I feel the angst of not only our country but the world at large wondering too what will be!!!!
Typo correction: East Coast longshoremen strike. Different union on the West Coast.
Provide backup and links please. Thank you.
West Coast ports are under a different union--ILWU. They did not go on strike.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/business/port-of-la-east-gulf-coast-strikes-economy/3525116/
I learned to take these jobs reports skeptically as they are often revised; the ADP report was far better. Won't be surprised if it isn't revised up. I think we have the momentum. Feeling good.
I mailed postcards on the 24th. My (R) town post office had zero postcard stamps, cleaned out. I take this as a good sign.
Thank you Simon for helping me keep my anxiety in check.
I wound up subsidizing the USPS by using regular 1st Class stamps on my postcards...
as a postal worker thanks for the income
Saaaame
Glad we got our stamps early for the 500 postcards we sent to GA. Even back then the postal clerk asked “what’s with all the postcards?”
I ended up buying a couple of extra rolls which was a good thing since I ended up writing some extra postcards for several last-minute postcard campaigns.
I ran into two strangers at the post office inside mail drop, on the day that Postcards to Swing States has designated as our mail date for NC postcards. One was mailing the same postcards as me and the other was mailing Vote Forward letters (which I also did).
I felt like I had met some fellow members of the sisterhood of activists!
My post office ran out of postcard stamps too. This turned about to be a cloud with a silver lining as I used my John Lewis Forever stamps instead.