"A Pal Is A Wonderful Thing" - Why We Must Lean Into, Not Run From, The Epstein Scandal

The"Trump" strongman brand is getting awfully wobbly

Morning all. You never know in this business. You never know when a policy idea will take hold, a scandal will metastasize, a politician will take off, or fall from grace. In the past few days, somehow, after all these years of unceasing scandal, criminality and even 34 felony convictions, the Epstein scandal evolved into something truly dangerous to Donald Trump and his already struggling strongman brand. Try as he might Trump has not be able to slough all this off as “locker room talk,” or those crazy things boys do - a tactic central to His Houdini like ability to wriggle out of consequences for behavior that has sunk public figures throughout history.

We all need to be clear about one thing - if Trump falls over his relationship with Epstein it would be appropriate, deserved and an outcome we should welcome and seek. Trump is an uniquely dark figure in American history. A felon, an abuser of women (and perhaps children too), a betrayer of our Constitution, an ally and enabler of Putin, an unprecedentedly corrupt President, a serial criminal who has even this year broken dozens and dozens of law since returning to the White House, and a deeply venal man who has become comfortable with millions of the poorest people in the world dying due to his actions, and who is right now overseeing extraordinary levels of cruelty aimed at people and families living and working here in the US.

If Trump were to fall over the Epstein scandal it would not be just for this specific scandal, but for everything he has done, and the terrible man he is. If any leader deserved to live out their life in disgrace and ignominy, it is Donald Trump.

Which is why I think in the coming days we need to lean into this scandal and not run from it. Newer voters, lower political information voters deserve to have a better understanding of the character of the person who leads us. Simply this part of Trumpism was not litigated by our side in the 2024 election, and it is information that tens of millions of Americans deserve to know. We cannot for one moment let go of the idea that Trump’s behavior over many decades should be seen and understood as disqualifying, and that we should use it to further undermine his legitimacy. For if we let go of that idea, of the outrage, of the insult, of the profound sense of betrayal, if we accept all this as normal, routine and “locker room talk” we are obeying in advance and doing MAGA’s work for them.

For as we’ve been discussing here Democrats must learn how to more effectively contest brand and leadership attributes, not just the traditional agenda and issue landscape.

The Wall Street Journal story that broke last night is shocking and horrible. It is about a letter Trump wrote to Epstein in 2003 as part of a birthday book of letters from Epstein’s closest friends:

The letter bearing Trump’s name, which was reviewed by the Journal, is bawdy—like others in the album. It contains several lines of typewritten text framed by the outline of a naked woman, which appears to be hand-drawn with a heavy marker. A pair of small arcs denotes the woman’s breasts, and the future president’s signature is a squiggly “Donald” below her waist, mimicking pubic hair.

It continues:

It isn’t clear how the letter with Trump’s signature was prepared. Inside the outline of the naked woman was a typewritten note styled as an imaginary conversation between Trump and Epstein, written in the third person.

“Voice Over: There must be more to life than having everything,” the note began.

Donald: Yes, there is, but I won’t tell you what it is.

Jeffrey: Nor will I, since I also know what it is.

Donald: We have certain things in common, Jeffrey.

Jeffrey: Yes, we do, come to think of it.

Donald: Enigmas never age, have you noticed that?

Jeffrey: As a matter of fact, it was clear to me the last time I saw you.

Donald: A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret.

The central reason all this has become so dangerous to Trump is that he is acting as if he is guilty, almost comically so, lying and clearly doing everything he can to prevent the release of material he clearly believes will be harmful to him. He has reason to be worried. Epstein was arrested, charged and died on his watch in 2019. Two law enforcement officials from Florida who had the opportunity to end Epstein’s sex trafficking and child rape ring and failed to do so have ended up in Trump’s cabinet. One is his current Attorney General who is also lying and covering up these terrible, terrible crimes. Trump’s name appears on the flight logs of Epstein’s private plane. There is extensive video, photo and written evidence of their close friendship - “a pal is a wonderful thing” after all. Elon has repeatedly told MAGA world Trump is on Epstein’s client list.

And then there are the many, many witnesses. An executive from Trump’s Casino days calls Epstein Trump’s “best friend” in this remarkable CNN interview this week:

Senator Ron Wyden is leading the charge on another angle to this escalating scandal - deeply suspicious flows of money to Epstein. From The NYTimes (gift link):

Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the powerful Senate Finance Committee, has been digging into Mr. Epstein’s financial network for the past three years. Some members of his staff have viewed confidential files that shed light on the immense sums of money that, they say, Mr. Epstein moved through the banking system to fuel his vast sex-trafficking network.

In particular, filings by four big banks flagged more than $1.5 billion in transactions — including thousands of wire transfers for the purchase and sale of artwork for rich friends, fees paid to Mr. Epstein by wealthy individuals, and payments to numerous women, the senator’s office found. The filings came after Mr. Epstein was arrested in 2019 on federal sex trafficking charges.

Large money transfers to individuals, foreign countries or obscure companies are the kind of things banks are supposed to be examining as potentially suspicious. Some of the Epstein money transfers disclosed in a report from JPMorgan Chase involved accounts at two Russian banks before those institutions were subject to U.S. sanctions. A few transactions red-flagged were for as much as $100 million.

Mr. Wyden said his investigation into Mr. Epstein’s finances had taken on new urgency now that the Trump administration was balking at releasing any of the information seized by the F.B.I. from Mr. Epstein’s homes or information collected from the nation’s banks. Like many Republicans on the far right, Mr. Wyden and a growing number of Democrats believe there are more details about Mr. Epstein that the federal government needs to reveal.

“We felt from the beginning this was a follow-the-money case,” Mr. Wyden said in an interview. “This horrific sex-trafficking operation cost Epstein a lot of money, and he had to get that money from somewhere.”

The bank records reviewed by Mr. Wyden’s staff — called suspicious activity reports or SARs — are meant to be an early warning system for law enforcement about signs of illegal activity. As dictated by federal law, the reports are so confidential that banks can’t even acknowledge filing them, and people who have seen the documents are under great constraint as to what they can say about them.

There is little question the pressure and the blowback is getting to Trump. His public performances this week were arguably the most unhinged of the last 10 years. He admitted to a debilitating illness, a rare and perhaps revelatory admission of frailty. His attack on his supporters this week was unprecedented, impulsive and reckless:

President Donald Trump has a message for supporters upset with his handling of records related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein: They are "weaklings" who have been "duped" and he doesn't need them.

Trump lashed out at conservative backers who have raised questions about his administration's handling of the Epstein case, slamming them in a July 16 social media post and again during an Oval Office event for furthering what he described as the "Jeffrey Epstein hoax."

"And my PAST supporters have bought into this 'bulls***,' hook, line, and sinker. They haven’t learned their lesson, and probably never will," Trump said on social media, before calling them "weaklings" and declaring "I don’t want their support anymore!"

Here is one of his most high profile supporters, the avowed Nazi, Nick Fuentes, yesterday:

“Fúck you. You suck. You're fat, you're a joke, you're stupid, you're not funny... This entire thing has been a scam. We're gonna look back at MAGA movement as the biggest scam in history. The liberals were right... we will see Trump as a scam artist."

As we discussed yesterday this growing disappointment in Trump on the right could have a significant impact on the November and midterm elections, as GOP enthusiasm craters:

As we also discussed yesterday Trump’s poll numbers continue to decline. G. Elliott Morris has a new analysis out this am, Trump’s approval hits new low as Epstein pressure mounts, that contains this remarkable chart:

In our business you never know. You never know when a something like this escalating Epstein scandal blows into something dangerous and consequential. But we are now, and we have an obligation, a responsibility, to prosecute the case here against Trump as we are prosecuting the case against his reckless and dangerous governing agenda. Given the harm he is doing to the country is it responsibility to keep degrading and weakening him, and we need to use all the tools in our toolbox to do so. So as awful as all this is we cannot look away, and we must keep the pressure on. Now…..

Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!

Support Hopium’s Priority Candidates - Friends, you all rallied these last few days. We hit our $25,000 June 30th goal for our newly endorsed candidates Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Senator Jon Ossoff - thank you! Our revised fundraising goals are for Labor Day, remarkably, only two months away, with the November elections now only four months away. We can do this people!

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $200,000 goal, $37k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch Our Interview

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $153k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch Our Interview

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $200,000 goal, $37k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer

• Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $162k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer, Watch Our Interviews

We also have ongoing campaigns to support the new DNC, the North Carolina Democratic Party and to thank Senator Cory Booker for his spirited leadership in a time of enormous challenge. Lots of choices - do something to support these great candidates and parties today!

Here’s our working, draft Dem agenda:

1 - Create A Growing Economy That Works For All, Fight Trump’s Tax and Price Increases - Roll back the terrible tariffs, lift this onerous tax on working people, stop this illegal and unconstitutional abuse of power that is doing so much economic and geopolitical damage to America; fight his raising prices on food, health care and energy and just about everything else

2- Rein In ICE, Protect Our Liberties - Put guardrails on ICE, no more masks or plainclothes agents, mandatory use of warrants and due process, no third country extraditions and a roll back on the additional and unnecessary funding provided in the reconciliation bill

3 - Keep America Safe - Fully fund FEMA, NOAA, FAA, DHS Intel, our cyber defenses etc - keep Americans safe, do not let our guard down against threats foreign and domestic. The unnecessary and tragic death of dozens of young girls should inspire us to action

4 - Protect The Nation’s Health - fire Kennedy, restore our vaccine regime, stand up for science and our world leading universities, fully fund NIH and all ongoing medical research, rescind the tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires to properly fund Medicaid and our public health

5 - Stand With Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia - Implement the Russia sanctions, ensure the world understands that America stands with Ukraine and Europe not Putin and global autocracy

……and the current set of actions we can take, together:

1 - Call your Senators and Reps To Demand They Revoke Trump’s Terrible Tariffs - Congress simply must take back its tariff authority that Trump has illegally and unconstitutional seized and dangerously abused; and at the very least they must stop what will be Trump’s ruinous new tariff increases slated to start on August 1st. Trump’s economic plan has failed, and we need to find a better way forward.

2 - Get The Military Off Our Streets, Fight Trump’s Inhumane Immigration Escalation - Contact your Rep and Senators to demand they fight Trump’s illegal use of the National Guard and Marines in California. Encourage Democrats at all levels of government to a stand with Governor Newsom and the California - for Trump is not just attacking California, he is attacking the rights and freedoms of all of us. See my recent interviews with David Leopold Joe Garcia, Leon Krauze and Senator Chris Van Hollen for more.

In the coming days I want to work with all of you to do something more explicit about demanding the end of masked, plain clothes “police” snatching people here in America without warrants.

3 - Join Our Resolutions Project - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders, learn about how Hopium members are advancing “resolutions of condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Our resolutions passed in two New Mexico counties two weeks ago, and we now have 46 resolutions moving in 15 states. Amazing work!!!!

4 -Volunteer To Help Your State and/or Local Democratic Parties Stand Up Voter Registration Efforts And Support “Organizing Summer” - In the presentation he made to our community recently Tom Bonier made a persuasive case that Democrats must once again make partisan voter registration a national priority. State and local Democratic Parties are in the planning stages to take this on. Members of our community should consider contacting their state and local parties and offer to help stand up these vital efforts in the coming months.

For more on the need to make partisan voter registration great again see my recent interview with Jane Kleeb, Nebraska Democratic Party Chair, DNC Vice Chair and President of the Association of Democratic State Committees.

The DNC, the DSCC, the DCCC, the DGA and the ASDC have announced a major new “Organizing Summer” project. Learn more about it here. I hope to have someone join us in the coming days to help us understand how we can support this exciting new initiative. Organizing to win these 29 Republican held House districts will be one of most important collective priorities for the next 16 months:

5 - Stand Up For Science - Sign on to the critically important Bethesda Declaration and watch my interview with Stand Up For Science’s Executive Director Colette Delawalla. Signing on to the Declaration is one concrete way you can take action today.

Another is to back over 700 employees of the EPA who have taken a courageous stand challenging EPA Administration Lee Zeldin. You can learn more and sign your name in support of this remarkable effort here. Note that over 140 of the signatories of this letter have now been put on Administrative leave. We to keep fighting everyone!

6 - Grow Hopium - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 152,000 we are now to 175,000 by Labor Day. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. If each current paid subscriber brings in just one new subscriber this summer we will hit our goal.

To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day. Use that link to buy gift or group subscriptions, and join our new referral rewards program too.

Please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you, and a fight it surely is - Simon