There is enormous risk to this. These emergency responses are the most non-partisan part of the government for they have to work with Republican elected officials in the states. It is unlikely this will happen for it will look we are turning a very non-partisan part of the govt into an extension of the campaign. If GA and NC Rs argue we are playing politics with people's lives and homes it could blow back on us terribly. I am sure she will be involved, but my expectation is this will be far more Biden than her.
IMO: We do not need Harris involved in the emergency effort; we need that work to be done incredibly competently and professionally. Rather than risk politicizing it, just show the area and the country what a competent, democratically run govt can and does do.
I feel it would instead be better to hammer home the GOP members of the House who wanted to shut down the government this week. The budget that was passed because of Democrats who crossed the aisle included disaster relief and increased spending on Secret Service. Sounds like an ad to me to run in swing districts.
Knowing that plates are overflowing, still exciting to see that complementing HC’s “15,”IA-01 and 03 both seem like stretch US House chances to flip. New state poll has D challenger up in 01 against a two-term unpopular R:
… while 03 features a first-term R who won by just 2K votes … plus a Libertarian running as a write-in, after the IA S.Ct. kept him off ballot (and fellow L candidates in the 1st and 4th).
Simon, I have a question about the 2022 Midterm Elections. As we know, there was no Red Wave. Democrats held the Senate, we almost held the House, and we won lots of important downticket races.
But I have heard, and I think you yourself have mentioned, that Republican turnout was higher than Democratic turnout. I’ve seen two figures mentioned: 3% and 4.6%.
– Would you be so kind as to clarify this? What are the facts? Why this despite Dobbs?
– If the Republican turnout was that much higher, why did it not result in a Red Wave?
– Was the Democratic turnout better targeted? With extra R votes where they didn’t matter?
– Was that higher R turnout likely to have been a one-time event?
– Has this been reversed, with higher Democratic turnout in special elections?
– Do you believe we are likely to see a far-higher Democratic turnout in 2024?
A/S - this is something I talked much more about in early 2023, and it is perhaps worth me bringing back into my rap and analysis. Here are the two relevant passages from my post-election memo and Tom Bonier often says that my "two elections" take was one of the most important insights we had into 2022:
It was a not a nationalized election - Unusually, the 2022 election was not nationalized, and there were really two elections – a bluer one inside the battleground and in a few heavy Dem states, and a redder one outside. For example, even though Dems outperformed 2020 in states like AZ, CO, GA, MI, NH, PA there were a big Dem dropoff from 2020 in the four largest states – CA, FL, NY, TX. The shift to Rs in the big 4 states makes all the national results and two exit polls more R than the reality on the ground, and folks should be wary of any analysis which does not account for huge D overperformance in many of the most important Presidential states.
The strong Dem performance in the Presidential battlegrounds may be the election’s most important story – Despite low Biden approval and high inflation, Democrats outperformed Biden 2020 in AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA (and WI Gov) – simply a stunning achievement in a midterm election. This new CNN piece by Ron Brownstein does a good job at explaining what these strong D performances in the battlegrounds may mean for the 2024 Presidential race, and it is not good news for the Rs. Greg Sargent has an extended interview wiith Simon about this strong D performance and what it means for 2024 in The Washington Post, Ron Brownstein has another must read piece about all this in The Atlantic and David Lauter dives into the growing importance of Arizona and Georgia in this smart LA Times piece.
The big lesson for us here is that when we run full fledged national campaigns we can control the information environment, and stay in control of our own destiny in the most important battlegrounds in the country. The big money our campaigns are raising is allowing Democrats to gain significant tactical advantage in contested races, something I write about here and something that will be hard for Rs to match by 2024. Part of this story is the entire Dem ecosystem has learned that a strong early vote can actually increase overall Dem turnout by allowing our campaigns to reach many more lower propensity voters much earlier in the process. Driving the early vote with bigger campaigns is creating what Simon calls a "virtuous cycle of participation" - a powerful new tool for a party with a higher percentage of new and irregular voters.
But the other lesson of 2022 is that when we don’t invest and build our superior campaigns, we can see the power of the right wing noise machine in creating a more favorable environment for Rs. It’s why as we look ahead we must both run our campaigns but be far more intentional about being loud and contesting the Rs ability to drive and dictate daily political discourse.
Simon, thank you so much! I found this comment particularly clarifying:
"…big Dem dropoff from 2020 in the four largest states – CA, FL, NY, TX. The shift to Rs in the big 4 states makes all the national results and two exit polls more R than the reality on the ground … huge D overperformance in many of the most important Presidential states."
This greatly increases my already-big optimism for 2024!! :)
Well isn’t this special. That the “legit” pollers are not cutting out the garbage polls in their summations is further decreasing the credibility of poll results. As they say, garbage in, garbage out.
I have now changed my increasingly popular/famous* statement:
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, polls, and then there are Republican polls.
* across the internet (mostly SubStack) I have seen other people use my quote. I don’t mind. I won’t sue. I won’t serve them with a cease and desist order. The more the merrier. Get the word out! Pay no attention to the pollster behind the curtain!
Do not trust the polls, good or bad. The only thing that matters is the votes. Get out. Vote. Even if the polls show your candidate 20% ahead or 20% behind. It is an illusion. It is smoke and mirrors. None of it is real until the votes are in.
I would like to be able to donate to NC, without giving my email or cell phone. On the other hand, I’m perfectly willing to provide my name and postal address – which ought to be sufficient for the mandated donation reports.
(My donation preference is credit card via phone, to a human being. Can I do this?)
EDIT: It’s a pity ActBlue does not allow you to donate while withholding email and phone. I don’t see any good reason for requiring that information – other than enabling campaigns to contact you to ask for additional donations.
I’d add SoCal Data. I can’t figure out who is behind that outfit but its twitter feed is just plan jaw-dropping and its polling consistently supports the GOP narrative.
Weirdly, I’m now in the camp that NYT/Sienna is a GOP narrative pollsters… or at least for this cycle. The tabs on the last batch of polls from them yesterday are downright mindboggling/implausible.
Based on a comment by another subscriber yesterday, I looked at the NYT's Wisconsin crosstabs. They have 18-29 year olds voting 56% for Trump, significantly more than every other age group. Seems like an absurd result.
Last time I checked (about 30-45 days ago) they were closely aligned with ultra-right-wing Red Eagle Politics (or something named similar to that) and constantly attacking polling that did not pick up the hard-to-find Trump voter. Very much believed that Trump voters are not getting covered in most polling.
I suppose some of those "hard-to-find Trumpers" are now incarcerated after their violent role in the January 6th coup attempt? Others are, perhaps, "standing back and standing by", but not answering calls from pollsters.
Pennsylvania rabbi here. I always hesitate to speak for my tribe, but I'm pretty sure I can tell you what PA Jews are gonna do. Roughly 3/4 of us are going to vote for Kamala & Tim and about 1/4 for the other guys. Give or take a few points. The Trump votes will come overwhelmingly from the Orthodox part of the community, which has been a R aligned Jewish subculture for some years now. Meanwhile, Harris/Walz are not only going to do great with the Jewish vote in PA, a lot of their hardworking campaign volunteers are going to come from the Jewish community (and already do). Also, Gov Shapiro has sway in our community, we're proud of him, and he's all in for Kamala. Doug Emhoff is popular among us too. We love the "mamala." shtick. The other things I can safely predict about PA Jews: every time Trump tells us we have to vote for him or else we're nuts, the vast majority of us will have an involuntary gag reflex; we're going to have some painful arguments between the liberal majority and the Trumpy minority within some of our extended families; and we're collectively going to be highly anxious and drive ourselves meshuggah worrying which is why Hopium is an important corrective for us psychologically. Also, we'll come up with a lot of funny stuff along the way. Those are my predictions... :)
I can say the same in Michigan. I am so frustrated with some of my more religious and Orthodox friends who will vote for Trump "because he is good for Israel." Maybe semi-true but Trump is awful for the US and that's where we live.
I can't even grant the notion that Trump being “good for Israel” is semi-true. He's good for Netanyahu and the far right extremists in the current government there, good for the settlers’ vision of an undemocratic future for Israel, and he's good for the Christian Zionist end times vision. But none of those things are actually good for the long term vision of an Israel that reflects the values and vision of its own Declaration of Independence — to be a Jewish refuge and a democracy, to shun religious extremism and preserve the rights and freedoms of all, and to be a partner for peace with all governments in the region that are willing to accept it. As with everything else, Trump’s “love” for Israel is skewed towards authoritarian elements there, and is ultimately transactional in nature. Biden, on the other hand, has been the truest kind of friend to Israel, caring not only for its safety but also for its character. A real friend will show up in your hour of need and tell you what you may not want to hear if you're heading down a tragic path. That's who Biden has been for Israel, and it reflects what Harris has consistently stood for too. For Israelis and Palestinians sakes I dearly hope Kamala wins.
Beautifully spoken. Thank you, Rabbi. I am Quaker, and would much prefer there be no war, but also recognize that my preferences do not matter when the alternative is people being killed heedlessly.
Thank you Simon! I've been trying to decide where my donation would make the most impact before the fundraising deadline. I'll be donating for North Carolina and am also sending something to World Central Kitchen.
Second, as to Pennsylvania, there are 750K Polish Pennsylvanian voters. I know the Harris camp knows this because Harris made that clear overture to them at the debate (regarding Ukraine). Yet I am wondering whether the Harris-Walz team has considered doing phonebanks specifically targeting that small Pennsylvania demographic.
If they ever got that granular, you could have one hell of a turnout operation. Especially if you think about recruiting volunteers who have a deep knowledge of the relevant issues in the Ukraine war. I am thinking you could apply the same type of logic to the Arab-American communities in Michigan too.
Thank you as always. Just signed up. Though I'm not Polish in the least, so I half-worry I'm flying under false colors. :)
Polish Americans for Harris is definitely in line with what I was talking about. But I believe it could be taken further (if it hasn't already). For example, like I said, I'm not Polish, yet I care deeply about the Ukraine War for the same basic reason that many Polish people do. I am sure there are many people like me who would be useful in a phonebank targeted exclusively to Polish Pennsylvanians.
If phonebanks like these are already happening, then there's one more thing I would suggest. With the more conservative voters that like Duda (the current somewhat Trump-sympathetic Polish president) and Trump, you may want to point to signs of Trump's cognitive decline (cf. his most recent rally in Penn.), and then raise the issue of what Vance would do in Trump's place about Putin and Poland. Scary stuff that may even sway the most ultra-conservative Polish voter concerned about Ukraine.
Here's my anecdotal take on polling. I like in NW Georgia, in MTG's district, and I still have a landline. This year I've gotten many push-pollers for Trump and other GOPers and no "legitimate" pollers. the push pollers are calling people they think will give them the results they want (Boy are they wrong in my case).
Thanks, Simon for mentioning North Carolina. Asheville is a complete disaster. All of our canvassing is now impossible. Early voting starts October 17 and we don’t have water or electric. We will do the best we can, we appreciate everyone helping in whatever way they can. We are determined to flip North Carolina blue!
Courage! We had total disaster here in NY/NJ only a couple weeks before election day in 2012, and we pulled it off. We had no power for 10 days at the end of October in about 1/3 of NJ and some folks had relocated temporarily. We worried that we'd lose polling places bc no electricity/damage, but it ended up that not that many places had to be moved. And they can use generators if need be. People understand and appreciate help - so maybe show up and help hand out supplies at an animal rescue or food bank. I helped a rescue for a couple weeks after Sandy and had some good conversations with folks who came in. Also tell folks all their options - vote by mail was not a thing in NJ in 2012 and it is now!
I spoke w some folks in western NC last night and they were answering phones and said they'd vote. One gentleman was a fireman who had been up all night rescuing folks but said he was for sure going to vote bc it is how he was raised. Lots of folks in the Tarheel State are like that. They may not tell you much about it, but they will vote. (PS-pitched a couple bucks your way today!)
There is enormous risk to this. These emergency responses are the most non-partisan part of the government for they have to work with Republican elected officials in the states. It is unlikely this will happen for it will look we are turning a very non-partisan part of the govt into an extension of the campaign. If GA and NC Rs argue we are playing politics with people's lives and homes it could blow back on us terribly. I am sure she will be involved, but my expectation is this will be far more Biden than her.
IMO: We do not need Harris involved in the emergency effort; we need that work to be done incredibly competently and professionally. Rather than risk politicizing it, just show the area and the country what a competent, democratically run govt can and does do.
I feel it would instead be better to hammer home the GOP members of the House who wanted to shut down the government this week. The budget that was passed because of Democrats who crossed the aisle included disaster relief and increased spending on Secret Service. Sounds like an ad to me to run in swing districts.
Knowing that plates are overflowing, still exciting to see that complementing HC’s “15,”IA-01 and 03 both seem like stretch US House chances to flip. New state poll has D challenger up in 01 against a two-term unpopular R:
https://dailyiowan.com/2024/09/24/new-iowa-poll-finds-voters-prefer-democratic-candidate-in-1st-congressional-district/
… while 03 features a first-term R who won by just 2K votes … plus a Libertarian running as a write-in, after the IA S.Ct. kept him off ballot (and fellow L candidates in the 1st and 4th).
https://www.kcci.com/article/new-iowa-poll-shows-tightening-races-in-1st-and-3rd-congressional-districts/62339500
Kamala wants you! Go team! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqAjwAU-HBU
https://www.mobilize.us/
DISPARITY IN PARTISAN TURNOUT – 2022 and 2024
Simon, I have a question about the 2022 Midterm Elections. As we know, there was no Red Wave. Democrats held the Senate, we almost held the House, and we won lots of important downticket races.
But I have heard, and I think you yourself have mentioned, that Republican turnout was higher than Democratic turnout. I’ve seen two figures mentioned: 3% and 4.6%.
– Would you be so kind as to clarify this? What are the facts? Why this despite Dobbs?
– If the Republican turnout was that much higher, why did it not result in a Red Wave?
– Was the Democratic turnout better targeted? With extra R votes where they didn’t matter?
– Was that higher R turnout likely to have been a one-time event?
– Has this been reversed, with higher Democratic turnout in special elections?
– Do you believe we are likely to see a far-higher Democratic turnout in 2024?
So, two things to read about 2022:
- https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/memo-the-democratic-party-is-strong-rs-remain-all-maga-cde639ed68db?utm_source=publication-search
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/still-waiting-for-the-red-wave-a?utm_source=publication-search
A/S - this is something I talked much more about in early 2023, and it is perhaps worth me bringing back into my rap and analysis. Here are the two relevant passages from my post-election memo and Tom Bonier often says that my "two elections" take was one of the most important insights we had into 2022:
It was a not a nationalized election - Unusually, the 2022 election was not nationalized, and there were really two elections – a bluer one inside the battleground and in a few heavy Dem states, and a redder one outside. For example, even though Dems outperformed 2020 in states like AZ, CO, GA, MI, NH, PA there were a big Dem dropoff from 2020 in the four largest states – CA, FL, NY, TX. The shift to Rs in the big 4 states makes all the national results and two exit polls more R than the reality on the ground, and folks should be wary of any analysis which does not account for huge D overperformance in many of the most important Presidential states.
The strong Dem performance in the Presidential battlegrounds may be the election’s most important story – Despite low Biden approval and high inflation, Democrats outperformed Biden 2020 in AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA (and WI Gov) – simply a stunning achievement in a midterm election. This new CNN piece by Ron Brownstein does a good job at explaining what these strong D performances in the battlegrounds may mean for the 2024 Presidential race, and it is not good news for the Rs. Greg Sargent has an extended interview wiith Simon about this strong D performance and what it means for 2024 in The Washington Post, Ron Brownstein has another must read piece about all this in The Atlantic and David Lauter dives into the growing importance of Arizona and Georgia in this smart LA Times piece.
The big lesson for us here is that when we run full fledged national campaigns we can control the information environment, and stay in control of our own destiny in the most important battlegrounds in the country. The big money our campaigns are raising is allowing Democrats to gain significant tactical advantage in contested races, something I write about here and something that will be hard for Rs to match by 2024. Part of this story is the entire Dem ecosystem has learned that a strong early vote can actually increase overall Dem turnout by allowing our campaigns to reach many more lower propensity voters much earlier in the process. Driving the early vote with bigger campaigns is creating what Simon calls a "virtuous cycle of participation" - a powerful new tool for a party with a higher percentage of new and irregular voters.
But the other lesson of 2022 is that when we don’t invest and build our superior campaigns, we can see the power of the right wing noise machine in creating a more favorable environment for Rs. It’s why as we look ahead we must both run our campaigns but be far more intentional about being loud and contesting the Rs ability to drive and dictate daily political discourse.
Simon, thank you so much! I found this comment particularly clarifying:
"…big Dem dropoff from 2020 in the four largest states – CA, FL, NY, TX. The shift to Rs in the big 4 states makes all the national results and two exit polls more R than the reality on the ground … huge D overperformance in many of the most important Presidential states."
This greatly increases my already-big optimism for 2024!! :)
Well isn’t this special. That the “legit” pollers are not cutting out the garbage polls in their summations is further decreasing the credibility of poll results. As they say, garbage in, garbage out.
I have now changed my increasingly popular/famous* statement:
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, polls, and then there are Republican polls.
* across the internet (mostly SubStack) I have seen other people use my quote. I don’t mind. I won’t sue. I won’t serve them with a cease and desist order. The more the merrier. Get the word out! Pay no attention to the pollster behind the curtain!
Do not trust the polls, good or bad. The only thing that matters is the votes. Get out. Vote. Even if the polls show your candidate 20% ahead or 20% behind. It is an illusion. It is smoke and mirrors. None of it is real until the votes are in.
Onward and upward through the fog.
How can a person who isn't online donate to winning back the house?
I would like to be able to donate to NC, without giving my email or cell phone. On the other hand, I’m perfectly willing to provide my name and postal address – which ought to be sufficient for the mandated donation reports.
(My donation preference is credit card via phone, to a human being. Can I do this?)
EDIT: It’s a pity ActBlue does not allow you to donate while withholding email and phone. I don’t see any good reason for requiring that information – other than enabling campaigns to contact you to ask for additional donations.
Not sure about phone. But per the state Dems website, https://www.ncdp.org, you can mail a check. It says:
"If you prefer to send a check, please mail it to:
North Carolina Democratic Party
PO Box 1926
Raleigh, NC 27602"
Of course that won't get there by the upcoming Sept 30 filing deadline.
You could call their office #: 919-821-2777 and ask this excellent question.
May be impractical to do the CC by phone given what is going on but here are contact details:
North Carolina Democratic Party
220 Hillsborough Street
Raleigh, NC 27603
P.O. Box 1926
Raleigh NC 27602
Office: 919-821-2777
You could send a check USPS Priority Mail for under $10 to the PO Box (includes tracking).
As I previously noted, add “The Napolitan Institute,” seen sometimes on 538, to the MAGA pollster watch list, as it is Rasmussen yet again:
https://napolitaninstitute.org/about-nns/
Sickening this right wing polling
Strong clear ad! Here in CA we don’t get these ads, so thank you for keeping us all looped in.
And great Tran interview. Donation deadline noted!!!
I’d add SoCal Data. I can’t figure out who is behind that outfit but its twitter feed is just plan jaw-dropping and its polling consistently supports the GOP narrative.
Weirdly, I’m now in the camp that NYT/Sienna is a GOP narrative pollsters… or at least for this cycle. The tabs on the last batch of polls from them yesterday are downright mindboggling/implausible.
How is it Jaw-dropping?
Based on a comment by another subscriber yesterday, I looked at the NYT's Wisconsin crosstabs. They have 18-29 year olds voting 56% for Trump, significantly more than every other age group. Seems like an absurd result.
Last time I checked (about 30-45 days ago) they were closely aligned with ultra-right-wing Red Eagle Politics (or something named similar to that) and constantly attacking polling that did not pick up the hard-to-find Trump voter. Very much believed that Trump voters are not getting covered in most polling.
I suppose some of those "hard-to-find Trumpers" are now incarcerated after their violent role in the January 6th coup attempt? Others are, perhaps, "standing back and standing by", but not answering calls from pollsters.
Trafalgar I believe is the pollster that claimed Pennsylvania Jews were fleeing to the GOP/Trump.
Pennsylvania rabbi here. I always hesitate to speak for my tribe, but I'm pretty sure I can tell you what PA Jews are gonna do. Roughly 3/4 of us are going to vote for Kamala & Tim and about 1/4 for the other guys. Give or take a few points. The Trump votes will come overwhelmingly from the Orthodox part of the community, which has been a R aligned Jewish subculture for some years now. Meanwhile, Harris/Walz are not only going to do great with the Jewish vote in PA, a lot of their hardworking campaign volunteers are going to come from the Jewish community (and already do). Also, Gov Shapiro has sway in our community, we're proud of him, and he's all in for Kamala. Doug Emhoff is popular among us too. We love the "mamala." shtick. The other things I can safely predict about PA Jews: every time Trump tells us we have to vote for him or else we're nuts, the vast majority of us will have an involuntary gag reflex; we're going to have some painful arguments between the liberal majority and the Trumpy minority within some of our extended families; and we're collectively going to be highly anxious and drive ourselves meshuggah worrying which is why Hopium is an important corrective for us psychologically. Also, we'll come up with a lot of funny stuff along the way. Those are my predictions... :)
Thank you for this!
https://www.bendthearc.us/jews_for_kamala
I can say the same in Michigan. I am so frustrated with some of my more religious and Orthodox friends who will vote for Trump "because he is good for Israel." Maybe semi-true but Trump is awful for the US and that's where we live.
But you'd say it's overall the same ratio as Maurice described?
https://jewishdems.org/press_release/new-poll-jewish-voters-overwhelmingly-support-trust-kamala-harris-oppose-distrust-donald-trump/
Thank you rabbi
I can't even grant the notion that Trump being “good for Israel” is semi-true. He's good for Netanyahu and the far right extremists in the current government there, good for the settlers’ vision of an undemocratic future for Israel, and he's good for the Christian Zionist end times vision. But none of those things are actually good for the long term vision of an Israel that reflects the values and vision of its own Declaration of Independence — to be a Jewish refuge and a democracy, to shun religious extremism and preserve the rights and freedoms of all, and to be a partner for peace with all governments in the region that are willing to accept it. As with everything else, Trump’s “love” for Israel is skewed towards authoritarian elements there, and is ultimately transactional in nature. Biden, on the other hand, has been the truest kind of friend to Israel, caring not only for its safety but also for its character. A real friend will show up in your hour of need and tell you what you may not want to hear if you're heading down a tragic path. That's who Biden has been for Israel, and it reflects what Harris has consistently stood for too. For Israelis and Palestinians sakes I dearly hope Kamala wins.
Beautifully spoken. Thank you, Rabbi. I am Quaker, and would much prefer there be no war, but also recognize that my preferences do not matter when the alternative is people being killed heedlessly.
Yes Maurice, thank you for the insight!
They were out with another R poll last night in Pa., Trump plus 3. So predictable.
Thank you Simon! I've been trying to decide where my donation would make the most impact before the fundraising deadline. I'll be donating for North Carolina and am also sending something to World Central Kitchen.
Winter sunshine pours
Over stacks of finished cards
Flying to voters!
Worry Less do more
Doomscrolling the polls won't help
ACTION, every day!
Love this, Shmoobly! High haiku!
James Fallows on NYT bias - including Haberman’s defensive NPR interview
https://open.substack.com/pub/fallows/p/election-countdown-38-days-to-go?r=x5q6e&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I heard that NPR interview, it was disgusting.
I will take your word for it!
Yeah I don't think I need to waste time hearing a reporter defend yellow journalism
Hello Simon,
First, interesting that even the InteractivePolls electoral college map suggests that Trump has serious issues in North Carolina. That's almost like a team's cheerleader booing their quarterback. Because even J.D. Vance says it's very hard for Trump to win without NC (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/jd-vance-says-hard-trump-win-north-carolina-rcna171162).
Second, as to Pennsylvania, there are 750K Polish Pennsylvanian voters. I know the Harris camp knows this because Harris made that clear overture to them at the debate (regarding Ukraine). Yet I am wondering whether the Harris-Walz team has considered doing phonebanks specifically targeting that small Pennsylvania demographic.
If they ever got that granular, you could have one hell of a turnout operation. Especially if you think about recruiting volunteers who have a deep knowledge of the relevant issues in the Ukraine war. I am thinking you could apply the same type of logic to the Arab-American communities in Michigan too.
P.S. This is interesting, isn't it?
(https://newrepublic.com/post/186444/conservative-poll-rasmussen-secretly-worked-trump-team)
Keep doing the work, people. They are trying to psych us out.
https://keystonenewsroom.com/2024/09/23/kamala-harris-pa-polish-outreach/
It started in Pittsburgh and went all the way....
https://actionnetwork.org/forms/sign-up-to-join-polish-americans-for-harris?source=twitter&
You asked for it.
Thank you as always. Just signed up. Though I'm not Polish in the least, so I half-worry I'm flying under false colors. :)
Polish Americans for Harris is definitely in line with what I was talking about. But I believe it could be taken further (if it hasn't already). For example, like I said, I'm not Polish, yet I care deeply about the Ukraine War for the same basic reason that many Polish people do. I am sure there are many people like me who would be useful in a phonebank targeted exclusively to Polish Pennsylvanians.
If phonebanks like these are already happening, then there's one more thing I would suggest. With the more conservative voters that like Duda (the current somewhat Trump-sympathetic Polish president) and Trump, you may want to point to signs of Trump's cognitive decline (cf. his most recent rally in Penn.), and then raise the issue of what Vance would do in Trump's place about Putin and Poland. Scary stuff that may even sway the most ultra-conservative Polish voter concerned about Ukraine.
Applies equally to all threatened by Putin. Finns. Litvaks. Etc.
Vance is on record. 80,000 Ukrainians in Ohio.
Here's my anecdotal take on polling. I like in NW Georgia, in MTG's district, and I still have a landline. This year I've gotten many push-pollers for Trump and other GOPers and no "legitimate" pollers. the push pollers are calling people they think will give them the results they want (Boy are they wrong in my case).
Thanks, Simon for mentioning North Carolina. Asheville is a complete disaster. All of our canvassing is now impossible. Early voting starts October 17 and we don’t have water or electric. We will do the best we can, we appreciate everyone helping in whatever way they can. We are determined to flip North Carolina blue!
Sending strength to you along with a donation!
Courage! We had total disaster here in NY/NJ only a couple weeks before election day in 2012, and we pulled it off. We had no power for 10 days at the end of October in about 1/3 of NJ and some folks had relocated temporarily. We worried that we'd lose polling places bc no electricity/damage, but it ended up that not that many places had to be moved. And they can use generators if need be. People understand and appreciate help - so maybe show up and help hand out supplies at an animal rescue or food bank. I helped a rescue for a couple weeks after Sandy and had some good conversations with folks who came in. Also tell folks all their options - vote by mail was not a thing in NJ in 2012 and it is now!
I spoke w some folks in western NC last night and they were answering phones and said they'd vote. One gentleman was a fireman who had been up all night rescuing folks but said he was for sure going to vote bc it is how he was raised. Lots of folks in the Tarheel State are like that. They may not tell you much about it, but they will vote. (PS-pitched a couple bucks your way today!)
I just donated to North Carolina dems on this website. My heart and prayers are with you!
Donated again and sending love and strength. So hard to see the pix and know you will work together to rebuild.