SO agree. “Unfit for office” is the issue, not age. Biden, Pelosi and Sanders are ALL fit for office! DT is immoral, incoherent, a liar, etc - not fit for office at any age!
Wholeheartedly agree. Biden, Pelosi, Sanders -- all still very effective in their roles. This notion that a particular age disqualifies someone from holding office is ageism.
Russell, I follow your same advice by donating monthly to Marc Elias and Democracy Docket and have done so for four years. I trust Marc to be “on it,” to the extent that I sometimes delete the daily email newsletter without reading it, saving my energy for other efforts like volunteering. Marc is a national treasure.
When I heard the news on the radio this morning about the prisoner exchange with the Russians I was wondering if that was a sign that Putin also thinks TFG is on the downward spiral.
On a related note, I would like to see the NSA or relevant authorities shut down Russia’s access to the Internet, or at least the USA, for a few days around November 5th. Wonderful if this or other proactive steps can eliminate the risk of Russian hacking / interference in the actual ballot counting.
Overall, I really hope American intelligence agencies are working overtime to safeguard the upcoming election from both foreign and domestic interference!
I thought the same at first - and it may have had some effect on Putin's thinking - but I have heard they he believes he needs to show current Russian intelligence agents he has their backs and he needs these people back to help him fight the war in Ukraine. The number of casualties Russia has taken in the war is staggering.
The prisoner Putin wanted the most was a convicted assassin held by Germany. So his release required the cooperation of Chancellor Olaf Schultz. Trump was very critical of our European allies -- so much so that Putin probably realized that Trump wouldn't be able to get Germany to cooperate.
I wouldn't want to make any guesses about Putin's thinking, but I feel fairly confident that trump is having a serious meltdown! Watch out for the flying ketchup!
I think Stuart Stevens was right on the mark with his description of Trump as bitter and feeling "cheated" of what he thinks he is entitled to.
Saw the 30-second Future Forward ad come on during the Olympic Volleyball match here in Ohio, which I was happy about. I am wondering if Simon has any thoughts about the primary in Arizona. Kari Lake's opponent Lamb got 39% of the vote and the turnout was lower than expected. These looks like signs of a weak Republican party operation to me.
A key factor here in Arizona in November is likely to be the Abortion Access Amendment, which will be on the ballot. This will drive up turnout, and once we get closer to the election, even the polls will likely reflect this.
By the way, that is the margin (4-5 points) that we won the 2020 election by. And, like you said, the beauty is that we still have momentum.
Also, that "what they want" list is fantastic. Have you thought of doing a similar list of "what we want?" Because, in a debate, that seems like a pitch-perfect opening statement for VP Harris.
Yes, highly recommend we all do this, once trained you can hop on to sessions every day and power out hundreds of texts to register new dems, it feels amazing and strategic to be expanding the base.
Underperformnig MAGA candidates is something Simon has been talking about for years now. Lots of warning signs for Lake here. Since Ruben is one of our projects, I would love to see a deep dive from Simon on the state of that race as soon as the tea leaves settle.
Yes, this is all true. Look we went into AZ and NC early because I felt with Lake and Robinson we had a special opportunity in each state to win and make gains up and down the ballot. Ruben is killing hit and the NC Dems are working their asses off. I feel very good about these investments and the strategy behind them all. If we win AZ, NC, NE-2 we will win the Presidency.
Yes, and our Governor Roy Cooper is going to be a fantastic surrogate in NC. Just getting ready to join in at his press conference about reproductive rights at the Harris campaign office here in Durham. Keep up the pressure, people!
Brian, check out the All in for NC fundraiser next week. One of the grasssroots groups that is going to be knocking on doors in NC focuses on the AAPI population.
I loved his intro to Harris in Greensboro the week before Biden bowed out. His call & response with the audience was fantastic. I hope he speaks at the convention and does the same thing there.
I just joined as a paying subscriber after reading the Chronicles for many, many weeks so that I can ask questions or comment, as well as learn more. Holding the Senate is so important; given that Jon Tester and Sherwood Brown are both in very tight races, I'm curious why you don't seem to ever talk focus on them. It also seems Colin Allred has a shot at defeating Ted Cruz, which would be fantastic! My apology if I've somehow missed the rationale for ignoring those campaigns.
Good question. Simon's strategy for Hopium is expansion—taking open or GOP seats rather than holding onto Dem seats, which is what the DSCC and DCCC are supposed to do. Sherrod Brown has a polling lead now and has a durable popularity here in Ohio. Moreno is also a pretty weak candidate in my opinion.
I would love to have a Winning the Senate option of 6 or so of the closest / most important races. We especially need to help Jon Tester. His race may be the most important race in either the House or Senate this election - control of the Senate probably hangs in the balance. Simon could include Gallego in this donation option and also keep Gallego's separate donation option.
I will think about this but right now we are focused on the places where I think our limited time and money goes the furthest - open seat and challenger House races, checkmate/expansion Presidential states.
I am going to use this new moment we are in over the next 10 days to re-evaluate our priorities as come to understand the new political landscape. But simply if we win AZ, NC, NE2 we will win the Presidency and if we win our 11 House seats the House slips. Clean, simple, powerful, befitting what is still a start up project here at Hopium.
But I will take it under advisement and consider it. Onward!
Yesterday, Simon, you said, “Yes we work as hard as we can and win this election by a huge vote and a big margin and none of their BS will matter.” I agreed with you yesterday. Today, well, it is a 180. Do a study?
Hi Carolyn. I think I can explain. See the quote above. Yesterday it was going for “huge” and “big” with the surge in mind. Today it is “standing pat” with the poker hand laid out well before the large shift in election momentum. I have missed the mark as there is little more we can do except work hard and give until it empties our bank accounts. Thank you for asking.
Thanks for explaining. You're correct in saying that we need to work hard, no matter what's happening. Much can happen in 97 days. We will have better days and not so good days. We just need to keep our eyes on the prize.
I thought the "go huge" was in the number of voters we get out to vote - especially in the Swing States. The "stand pat" is with respect to which down ballot races we are looking to flip in the House - as opposed to taking a scatter shot approach. So I am certainly missing the 180.
In 2022, activists in CA and NY were so focused on GOTV in swing states that they neglected their own back yards and we lost the house by losing 5 seats by very small margins.
Thank you, Simon. I didn't expect a reply from you so soon! That said, in my humble opinion, keeping the Senate 51-49 (or better) matters so much; judges, judges, judges. Might it matter more than turning the House? I do support some of these Senate races through actblue. Don't have lots of $, and am just plain curious about it all.
I think in general donating to House Races is more efficient use of money, which is why Simon has recommended them first. Is there a certain state besides Ohio and Montana you are interested in?
It's all important. To win a trifecta means there is so much more we can get done....and if we can win the Senate and get rid of the damn filibuster, all bets are off (and you know the Repubs would do it in a heartbeat). I donate monthly to the DSCC headed up by Gary Peters (Mi) who has done a great job winning the Senate. Not sure if that will be Simon's focus here but that's an option for you...or donating directly to Sherrod & Jon's campaigns on a monthly basis.
This makes total sense, Simon — but I wonder if an HofR “Red to Blue” could be added to the remaining 11 to get back to 12 (I emailed you a couple of ideas). If you don’t have the bandwidth for an interview, maybe they could visit an upcoming community-wide gatherings where you have sometimes have had guests.
Jon Tester is a good campaigner, but given the population in Montana, his election victories have been close. If his current race could get a little visibility within the Hopium community, that would be great. But Hopium can't do everything. Those of us interested in helping Tester could try signing up to volunteer via his campaign site. https://jontester.com/
There are lots of groups already doing this and it doesn't require the skills of a Democratic strategist to figure it out!! They are all must win seats.
In addition to Vote Save America that Michael A. mentions, check out the Swing Left Senate strategy here: https://swingleft.org/p/senate.
Swing Left is focusing on seven states’ incumbent Democratic races that will be key to holding power: AZ, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, and WI.
Welcome! I'm an Ohioan who is working hard to re-elect Sherrod Brown. As a Hopium subscriber, I appreciate the strategy that went into selecting the races that are directly benefitting; while this community can not do everything, it can make a difference in some very important contests. Most of us here are involved and donating in other communities as well. I suggest it is my responsibility to balance my own portfolio of support/effort, rather than looking to one group whose interests align 100% with mine.
As a volunteer for the Sherrod Brown campaign. I have noticed more enthusiasm for him than Tim Ryan had. Oddly enough there is more interest in Sherrod in the more affluent neighborhoods than I expected. Tim Ryan had some backing in those neighborhoods but had very little to no support in less affluent neighborhoods. I was surprised how much more interest there was for my congressional candidate than Tim Ryan, it kind of informed my opinion that running the "Republican Light" strategy does not work.
That said I think Sherrod can win, he started organizing much earlier, has a bigger staff, he has also been on air since the spring and there is some pac doing consistent negative ads on Bernie Moreno. I would like to see Sherrod do a little more to own being a Democrat a little more, at least in blue and purple areas. I have really come to believe it is important a lot of people I talk to say they will support the Dems but do not know which Senate candidate is which.
Wish Sherrod would cut the statement that he has voted with/for some Trump legislation. Tim Ryan did that repeatedly, and turned voters off. On a happier note, one of my neighbors who is a registered R, received a postcard from Santa Clara CA encouraging a vote for Sherrod. And my 89 yr old neighbor and I are writing postcards for Sherrod.
I do not have a problem with that per se, but it should be followed with some version of why you are a Democrat or some version of why Republicans are bad. He should really be connecting his support for workers with why he is a Democrat or why he is not a Republican.
The "don't worry I am one of the good ones" sales pitch just doesn't work on its own. People are more willing to vote for someone on the "other side" if they can give a good and believable reason why they are and the value in giving the party they would not normally do so some power. I heard an interview with Abagail Spamberger once that really cemented this in my head. People on some level get that your most important vote is for the speaker/majority leader you have to sell them on that vote in addition to your other votes.
Oh no, Trump is flopping! Quick, Susie Wiles and Chris La Civita need to do another triumphant, football-spiking interview about how they’re creating a Trump/GOP “landslide”! Taking a self-congratulatory victory lap in mid-July is what very, very smart strategists do.
For folks who haven't been following the governer's race here in NC and are concerned about turning NC Blue, I suggest finding more videos like this and sharing them as far and wide as possible.
First of all, are blacks in North Carolina really going to vote for this guy instead of Kamala Harris?
Second, i've been in NC long enough (since 2010) to say, even if there are a lot of voters for Harris, there are a significant enough number of racists among Republicans that it's going to be very hard for them to vote for a black man for governor.
But finally, the guy is WORSE - FAR worse - than DJT - really, if you've gotten this far in the comment and haven't watched the short video, watch it. You'll think it's just complaining about transgender (which is par for the course for MAGA), but keep watching. It just keeps getting worse and worse for them, and better and better for us.
Simon's note about crazy, poor performing MAGA candidates seemed almost designed for Robinson.
Thanks for sharing, Don. I’m a former long-time North Carolinian (now in Colorado) and watched NC slide into extremism with horror. Did everything I could to help turn it around, to no avail.
Not sure if I missed it in the video, but the WORST thing imho that Mark Robinson has said is, “Some folks just need killin’.” 😳😳😳
I think we're still assuming that August polls reflect October views.
My guess, from seeing Madison Cawthorne crash and burn last time around (when, as I recall, he was still looking like a possible winner in August), is as people start tuning it (in about 6 weeks, maybe not even till october in most of NC) people will be equally disgusted by Robinson.
Not only do we have heavily progressive Western North Carolina (except Madison and a few outlying counties) but we have the whole Triangle (Raleigh, Chapel Hill, Durham) and even though Charlotte trends conservative, it's more a Never Trumper conservative than creepy weird (ie Tucker, Vance, Trump) conservative.
I'll be wiling to eat any one of my dozen or so hats if by late october, I'm wrong about this.
Oh, I am not assuming that – quite the contrary. Just saying I’m surprised the late-July polls are close given how many damning Robinson quotes have been unearthed, many of them recent.
I believe you’re right, that we’ll be seeing very different polls in late October.
I heard on a recent Rachel Maddow show that there are 16 counties located in 7 "swing states" where the top county official (County Recorder) for counting election results are "Election Deniers." This means that if it looks like Democrats (Harris) are going to win their state, these County Recorder election deniers will refuse to certify the vote in their county, and therefore, according to their legal theory, the states electoral candidates are "contested" and it has to be determined by the U S House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans. This may be part what Trump is getting at when he says publicly, "We don't need any more votes.....we got enough votes...." Simon, can you comment -- help us evaluate the danger of this MAGA strategy to overthrow the 2024 election? We need to save our Democracy!
That's just another reason why we have to overwhelm them with our vote. Don't obey in advance. We should not be cowering in fear but moving forward.
If you want a deeper dive into this look at the Rolling Stone article Maddow based her reporting on. Or try Robert Hubbell's substack today. Now is not the time to worry but to put more pressure on the gas.
Refusing to certify a vote doesn’t simply give it to the House of Representatives. If that were the case, we wouldn’t have elections for president, the house would just choose. This won’t hold up to legal scrutiny and isn’t worth our time at Hopium to fight.
Focus on what we can control - getting out the blue vote.
This is not a criticism of you, Ron, but I think that Maddow circulating this kind of story is less than helpful. For one thing, what are we supposed to do? Go to those 16 counties and tell the election deniers that they better not try any funny business? For another thing, we need to be encouraging swing state voters to vote, not encouraging them to consider that their ballots might end up being tossed in a dumpster. It really reminds me of the panic over mail-in voting in 2020. Progressives on Twitter were trying to convince people that DeJoy, the postmaster general, was going to make sure mail-in ballots from Democratic areas came in too late to be counted, securing Trump's re-election. For far too long, people have refused to believe the obvious fact that Trump has no idea what he is talking about half the time (or more) and just spews random nonsense punctuated by stock words and phrases like "frankly" and "so true." And then everyone treats this nonsense like the words of the Delphic Oracle, translating them into something that makes sense and then attributing their translation to Trump himself.
Agreed, I felt when Elizabeth Warren came on right after that Maddow segment she pretty much shut it down and said the same, heads down, focused on winning by the biggest margin possible.
Yes - I like Rachel and I suspect she’s on target generally. But I also find she can be a little alarmist over things we have no control over. So I don’t watch her too much. Let us do what we can do and let the lawyers and politicians do what they do best. We have some pretty sharp lawyers on our side!
Yep, a MAGAt won the Repub primary in Arizona, Maricopa County. I wrote about it this morning too. CRITICAL seat in AZ for 2024, welp probably for a decade, at last until Trumpism dies down.
True. Though for 2024, we still have a rational R for County Recorder, so not a problem for this year. The election of Maricopa County Recorder this year will, of course, be crucial for elections in 2026 and 2028.
Trump is imploding. What is the use in finding/making any sense of what he said yesterday to the Black Journalists gathered? He's non-electable and becoming a more of a madman with each passing day. Conversely, with all of the scrutiny focused on Biden's mental clarity, who's weighing in?
We need to make sure Trump NEVER returns to the White House being a felon, rapist, racist, misogynist. And Biden's Supreme Court Reform must be top-shelf
Just want to share with the family something that happened night before last here in NC. I got push-polled!
I couldn't get the pollster (who would only say they were from the "National Public Opinion Research Firm") to tell me who was paying for the poll.
The questions were definitely trying to paint Kamala as too liberal, soft on crime, a failure at the border and bad for the economy. The pollster also asked if I agreed with Kamala's position to allow abortion up to nine months! I asked her if she realized babies are born at nine months and that whole question was laughable and dishonest.
They had my name and contact info so they knew who they were getting. Prior to 2017 I had been registered unaffiliated for business reasons but had always worked on and given money to Democratic campaigns. I'm guessing they just saw an old list with a U next to my name and dialed away as though I'd be gettable.
I’d argue betting markets have limited to no predictive ability. They aren’t a representative sample of the US. Additionally, you can have people that bet against their actions as a sort of hedge. For example, you can have democrats placing bets on Trump as a silver lining.
I am so proud to be part of this awesome community. It makes me feel that my small efforts to save Democracy have a more meaningful impact. Thank you all for being here! God bless you 🙏 ❤️
Good morning everyone. We probably should have had a postcarding campaign for Andrei Cherney in addition to the fund raising. With 2 other popular candidates he needed more than fund raising for the win. Simon, please consider, for the Hopium postcarding events, adding the Democrat running for the Maricopa County Recorders seat - Tim Stringham since Richer was defeated in yesterday's primary. A MAGAt won in the Repub primary. A CRITICAL position for 2024.
SO agree. “Unfit for office” is the issue, not age. Biden, Pelosi and Sanders are ALL fit for office! DT is immoral, incoherent, a liar, etc - not fit for office at any age!
Wholeheartedly agree. Biden, Pelosi, Sanders -- all still very effective in their roles. This notion that a particular age disqualifies someone from holding office is ageism.
Russell, I follow your same advice by donating monthly to Marc Elias and Democracy Docket and have done so for four years. I trust Marc to be “on it,” to the extent that I sometimes delete the daily email newsletter without reading it, saving my energy for other efforts like volunteering. Marc is a national treasure.
When I heard the news on the radio this morning about the prisoner exchange with the Russians I was wondering if that was a sign that Putin also thinks TFG is on the downward spiral.
Doubt it but I hope Americans will stay out of Russia while the West is actively at war with them -and I mean a hot war, not a cold one.
Hmmm.... Seems plausible.
David Frum thinks so.
On a related note, I would like to see the NSA or relevant authorities shut down Russia’s access to the Internet, or at least the USA, for a few days around November 5th. Wonderful if this or other proactive steps can eliminate the risk of Russian hacking / interference in the actual ballot counting.
Overall, I really hope American intelligence agencies are working overtime to safeguard the upcoming election from both foreign and domestic interference!
I thought the same at first - and it may have had some effect on Putin's thinking - but I have heard they he believes he needs to show current Russian intelligence agents he has their backs and he needs these people back to help him fight the war in Ukraine. The number of casualties Russia has taken in the war is staggering.
The prisoner Putin wanted the most was a convicted assassin held by Germany. So his release required the cooperation of Chancellor Olaf Schultz. Trump was very critical of our European allies -- so much so that Putin probably realized that Trump wouldn't be able to get Germany to cooperate.
Let us take a moment to thank Pres. Biden and his administration for negotiating and finally making the prisoner release become a reality.
Mr. President, thank you, thank you, thank you very much. ❤️❤️❤️
Vote for Kamala. Vote Blue (for Joe). 😊
Amen to that!
I wouldn't want to make any guesses about Putin's thinking, but I feel fairly confident that trump is having a serious meltdown! Watch out for the flying ketchup!
I think Stuart Stevens was right on the mark with his description of Trump as bitter and feeling "cheated" of what he thinks he is entitled to.
Saw the 30-second Future Forward ad come on during the Olympic Volleyball match here in Ohio, which I was happy about. I am wondering if Simon has any thoughts about the primary in Arizona. Kari Lake's opponent Lamb got 39% of the vote and the turnout was lower than expected. These looks like signs of a weak Republican party operation to me.
A key factor here in Arizona in November is likely to be the Abortion Access Amendment, which will be on the ballot. This will drive up turnout, and once we get closer to the election, even the polls will likely reflect this.
It looks like the GOP's poorly conceived "your votes won't count" messaging is depressing their own turnout. https://www.fox10phoenix.com/election/arizonas-primary-election-is-election-mistrust-reason-low-voter-turnout
49%-45% (+4) Civiqs
By the way, that is the margin (4-5 points) that we won the 2020 election by. And, like you said, the beauty is that we still have momentum.
Also, that "what they want" list is fantastic. Have you thought of doing a similar list of "what we want?" Because, in a debate, that seems like a pitch-perfect opening statement for VP Harris.
Best wishes,
Michael and David Salzillo
Writers of the Political Pulse of America (https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com) and Salzillo's Two Cents (https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/)
Biden won by 7 million. FT 6 identified 9 million unregistered folk who trend Democratic. Register Democrats to sweep the swing states.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Yes, highly recommend we all do this, once trained you can hop on to sessions every day and power out hundreds of texts to register new dems, it feels amazing and strategic to be expanding the base.
From the BBC, Kari Lake won her primary to face Ruben Gallego this November. But she struggled to win against Sheriff Mark Lamb.
"While Ms Lake raised substantially more money in her campaign - $10.3m (£8m) compared to Mr Lamb's $2m - the sheriff secured about 40% of the vote."
www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm5247p4jpyo.amp
Underperformnig MAGA candidates is something Simon has been talking about for years now. Lots of warning signs for Lake here. Since Ruben is one of our projects, I would love to see a deep dive from Simon on the state of that race as soon as the tea leaves settle.
Yes, this is all true. Look we went into AZ and NC early because I felt with Lake and Robinson we had a special opportunity in each state to win and make gains up and down the ballot. Ruben is killing hit and the NC Dems are working their asses off. I feel very good about these investments and the strategy behind them all. If we win AZ, NC, NE-2 we will win the Presidency.
Yes, and our Governor Roy Cooper is going to be a fantastic surrogate in NC. Just getting ready to join in at his press conference about reproductive rights at the Harris campaign office here in Durham. Keep up the pressure, people!
NC really needs to get some South Asian surrogates out there too. Like maybe Jay Chaudhari. https://abc11.com/post/2024-election-indian-american-democrats-triangle-motivated-kamala-harris-presidential-bid/15123435/
I want Mindy Kaling!
Brian, check out the All in for NC fundraiser next week. One of the grasssroots groups that is going to be knocking on doors in NC focuses on the AAPI population.
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/gotv-for-a-blue-nc
I loved his intro to Harris in Greensboro the week before Biden bowed out. His call & response with the audience was fantastic. I hope he speaks at the convention and does the same thing there.
I just joined as a paying subscriber after reading the Chronicles for many, many weeks so that I can ask questions or comment, as well as learn more. Holding the Senate is so important; given that Jon Tester and Sherwood Brown are both in very tight races, I'm curious why you don't seem to ever talk focus on them. It also seems Colin Allred has a shot at defeating Ted Cruz, which would be fantastic! My apology if I've somehow missed the rationale for ignoring those campaigns.
Good question. Simon's strategy for Hopium is expansion—taking open or GOP seats rather than holding onto Dem seats, which is what the DSCC and DCCC are supposed to do. Sherrod Brown has a polling lead now and has a durable popularity here in Ohio. Moreno is also a pretty weak candidate in my opinion.
I would love to have a Winning the Senate option of 6 or so of the closest / most important races. We especially need to help Jon Tester. His race may be the most important race in either the House or Senate this election - control of the Senate probably hangs in the balance. Simon could include Gallego in this donation option and also keep Gallego's separate donation option.
Go to Vote Save America (from the Pod Save America gang)
I will think about this but right now we are focused on the places where I think our limited time and money goes the furthest - open seat and challenger House races, checkmate/expansion Presidential states.
I am going to use this new moment we are in over the next 10 days to re-evaluate our priorities as come to understand the new political landscape. But simply if we win AZ, NC, NE2 we will win the Presidency and if we win our 11 House seats the House slips. Clean, simple, powerful, befitting what is still a start up project here at Hopium.
But I will take it under advisement and consider it. Onward!
Yesterday, Simon, you said, “Yes we work as hard as we can and win this election by a huge vote and a big margin and none of their BS will matter.” I agreed with you yesterday. Today, well, it is a 180. Do a study?
I'm not seeing the 180. Of course we want to win with as big a margin as possible. But that doesn't mean we don't focus first on just winning.
As if mutually exclusive? Now I have to go look that up to see if I have it logically correct. I may well be bonkers.
What do you mean by "today it's a 180"?
Hi Carolyn. I think I can explain. See the quote above. Yesterday it was going for “huge” and “big” with the surge in mind. Today it is “standing pat” with the poker hand laid out well before the large shift in election momentum. I have missed the mark as there is little more we can do except work hard and give until it empties our bank accounts. Thank you for asking.
Thanks for explaining. You're correct in saying that we need to work hard, no matter what's happening. Much can happen in 97 days. We will have better days and not so good days. We just need to keep our eyes on the prize.
I thought the "go huge" was in the number of voters we get out to vote - especially in the Swing States. The "stand pat" is with respect to which down ballot races we are looking to flip in the House - as opposed to taking a scatter shot approach. So I am certainly missing the 180.
In 2022, activists in CA and NY were so focused on GOTV in swing states that they neglected their own back yards and we lost the house by losing 5 seats by very small margins.
Thank you, Simon. I didn't expect a reply from you so soon! That said, in my humble opinion, keeping the Senate 51-49 (or better) matters so much; judges, judges, judges. Might it matter more than turning the House? I do support some of these Senate races through actblue. Don't have lots of $, and am just plain curious about it all.
I think in general donating to House Races is more efficient use of money, which is why Simon has recommended them first. Is there a certain state besides Ohio and Montana you are interested in?
I'm a big fan of Jon Tester too, and his race will be close. Have you tried signing up to volunteer via his campaign site? https://jontester.com/
It's all important. To win a trifecta means there is so much more we can get done....and if we can win the Senate and get rid of the damn filibuster, all bets are off (and you know the Repubs would do it in a heartbeat). I donate monthly to the DSCC headed up by Gary Peters (Mi) who has done a great job winning the Senate. Not sure if that will be Simon's focus here but that's an option for you...or donating directly to Sherrod & Jon's campaigns on a monthly basis.
Thank you Simon, your strategy is excellent, but DO consider something on the Senate side.
This makes total sense, Simon — but I wonder if an HofR “Red to Blue” could be added to the remaining 11 to get back to 12 (I emailed you a couple of ideas). If you don’t have the bandwidth for an interview, maybe they could visit an upcoming community-wide gatherings where you have sometimes have had guests.
Jon Tester is a good campaigner, but given the population in Montana, his election victories have been close. If his current race could get a little visibility within the Hopium community, that would be great. But Hopium can't do everything. Those of us interested in helping Tester could try signing up to volunteer via his campaign site. https://jontester.com/
There are lots of groups already doing this and it doesn't require the skills of a Democratic strategist to figure it out!! They are all must win seats.
In addition to Vote Save America that Michael A. mentions, check out the Swing Left Senate strategy here: https://swingleft.org/p/senate.
Swing Left is focusing on seven states’ incumbent Democratic races that will be key to holding power: AZ, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, and WI.
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/swing-left-senate-2024
Welcome NJR! And thank you so much for joining us ❤️
Welcome! I'm an Ohioan who is working hard to re-elect Sherrod Brown. As a Hopium subscriber, I appreciate the strategy that went into selecting the races that are directly benefitting; while this community can not do everything, it can make a difference in some very important contests. Most of us here are involved and donating in other communities as well. I suggest it is my responsibility to balance my own portfolio of support/effort, rather than looking to one group whose interests align 100% with mine.
As a volunteer for the Sherrod Brown campaign. I have noticed more enthusiasm for him than Tim Ryan had. Oddly enough there is more interest in Sherrod in the more affluent neighborhoods than I expected. Tim Ryan had some backing in those neighborhoods but had very little to no support in less affluent neighborhoods. I was surprised how much more interest there was for my congressional candidate than Tim Ryan, it kind of informed my opinion that running the "Republican Light" strategy does not work.
That said I think Sherrod can win, he started organizing much earlier, has a bigger staff, he has also been on air since the spring and there is some pac doing consistent negative ads on Bernie Moreno. I would like to see Sherrod do a little more to own being a Democrat a little more, at least in blue and purple areas. I have really come to believe it is important a lot of people I talk to say they will support the Dems but do not know which Senate candidate is which.
Wish Sherrod would cut the statement that he has voted with/for some Trump legislation. Tim Ryan did that repeatedly, and turned voters off. On a happier note, one of my neighbors who is a registered R, received a postcard from Santa Clara CA encouraging a vote for Sherrod. And my 89 yr old neighbor and I are writing postcards for Sherrod.
I do not have a problem with that per se, but it should be followed with some version of why you are a Democrat or some version of why Republicans are bad. He should really be connecting his support for workers with why he is a Democrat or why he is not a Republican.
The "don't worry I am one of the good ones" sales pitch just doesn't work on its own. People are more willing to vote for someone on the "other side" if they can give a good and believable reason why they are and the value in giving the party they would not normally do so some power. I heard an interview with Abagail Spamberger once that really cemented this in my head. People on some level get that your most important vote is for the speaker/majority leader you have to sell them on that vote in addition to your other votes.
Oh no, Trump is flopping! Quick, Susie Wiles and Chris La Civita need to do another triumphant, football-spiking interview about how they’re creating a Trump/GOP “landslide”! Taking a self-congratulatory victory lap in mid-July is what very, very smart strategists do.
For folks who haven't been following the governer's race here in NC and are concerned about turning NC Blue, I suggest finding more videos like this and sharing them as far and wide as possible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT6QGt9M91k
First of all, are blacks in North Carolina really going to vote for this guy instead of Kamala Harris?
Second, i've been in NC long enough (since 2010) to say, even if there are a lot of voters for Harris, there are a significant enough number of racists among Republicans that it's going to be very hard for them to vote for a black man for governor.
But finally, the guy is WORSE - FAR worse - than DJT - really, if you've gotten this far in the comment and haven't watched the short video, watch it. You'll think it's just complaining about transgender (which is par for the course for MAGA), but keep watching. It just keeps getting worse and worse for them, and better and better for us.
Simon's note about crazy, poor performing MAGA candidates seemed almost designed for Robinson.
Wow! That video about Mark Robinson was disgusting, but the commentator was great. Thanks!
Thanks for sharing, Don. I’m a former long-time North Carolinian (now in Colorado) and watched NC slide into extremism with horror. Did everything I could to help turn it around, to no avail.
Not sure if I missed it in the video, but the WORST thing imho that Mark Robinson has said is, “Some folks just need killin’.” 😳😳😳
Karen, you might be interested in this substack: https://www.politicsnc.com/
I recommend these posts on Robinson:
* https://www.politicsnc.com/p/kill-thy-neighbor
* https://www.politicsnc.com/p/josh-stein-helps-mark-robinson-get
* https://www.politicsnc.com/p/the-gift-that-keeps-on-giving
* https://www.politicsnc.com/p/how-reverse-coattails-might-work
Thanks, Cheryl! I’ll check these out.
To me it’s unfathomable that the polls between Mark Robinson and Josh Stein are as close as they are.
I think we're still assuming that August polls reflect October views.
My guess, from seeing Madison Cawthorne crash and burn last time around (when, as I recall, he was still looking like a possible winner in August), is as people start tuning it (in about 6 weeks, maybe not even till october in most of NC) people will be equally disgusted by Robinson.
Not only do we have heavily progressive Western North Carolina (except Madison and a few outlying counties) but we have the whole Triangle (Raleigh, Chapel Hill, Durham) and even though Charlotte trends conservative, it's more a Never Trumper conservative than creepy weird (ie Tucker, Vance, Trump) conservative.
I'll be wiling to eat any one of my dozen or so hats if by late october, I'm wrong about this.
Oh, I am not assuming that – quite the contrary. Just saying I’m surprised the late-July polls are close given how many damning Robinson quotes have been unearthed, many of them recent.
I believe you’re right, that we’ll be seeing very different polls in late October.
Found it…
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/mark-robinson-north-carolina-some-folks-need-killing-1235054081/
Thanks, I hope everyone spreads this around.
I heard on a recent Rachel Maddow show that there are 16 counties located in 7 "swing states" where the top county official (County Recorder) for counting election results are "Election Deniers." This means that if it looks like Democrats (Harris) are going to win their state, these County Recorder election deniers will refuse to certify the vote in their county, and therefore, according to their legal theory, the states electoral candidates are "contested" and it has to be determined by the U S House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans. This may be part what Trump is getting at when he says publicly, "We don't need any more votes.....we got enough votes...." Simon, can you comment -- help us evaluate the danger of this MAGA strategy to overthrow the 2024 election? We need to save our Democracy!
That's just another reason why we have to overwhelm them with our vote. Don't obey in advance. We should not be cowering in fear but moving forward.
If you want a deeper dive into this look at the Rolling Stone article Maddow based her reporting on. Or try Robert Hubbell's substack today. Now is not the time to worry but to put more pressure on the gas.
Refusing to certify a vote doesn’t simply give it to the House of Representatives. If that were the case, we wouldn’t have elections for president, the house would just choose. This won’t hold up to legal scrutiny and isn’t worth our time at Hopium to fight.
Focus on what we can control - getting out the blue vote.
Additionally, smart people have been fighting this for years now.
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/election-denial-cant-overcome-election-certification-protections
Let the lawyers worry about that.
This is not a criticism of you, Ron, but I think that Maddow circulating this kind of story is less than helpful. For one thing, what are we supposed to do? Go to those 16 counties and tell the election deniers that they better not try any funny business? For another thing, we need to be encouraging swing state voters to vote, not encouraging them to consider that their ballots might end up being tossed in a dumpster. It really reminds me of the panic over mail-in voting in 2020. Progressives on Twitter were trying to convince people that DeJoy, the postmaster general, was going to make sure mail-in ballots from Democratic areas came in too late to be counted, securing Trump's re-election. For far too long, people have refused to believe the obvious fact that Trump has no idea what he is talking about half the time (or more) and just spews random nonsense punctuated by stock words and phrases like "frankly" and "so true." And then everyone treats this nonsense like the words of the Delphic Oracle, translating them into something that makes sense and then attributing their translation to Trump himself.
Agreed, I felt when Elizabeth Warren came on right after that Maddow segment she pretty much shut it down and said the same, heads down, focused on winning by the biggest margin possible.
Yes - I like Rachel and I suspect she’s on target generally. But I also find she can be a little alarmist over things we have no control over. So I don’t watch her too much. Let us do what we can do and let the lawyers and politicians do what they do best. We have some pretty sharp lawyers on our side!
Yep, a MAGAt won the Repub primary in Arizona, Maricopa County. I wrote about it this morning too. CRITICAL seat in AZ for 2024, welp probably for a decade, at last until Trumpism dies down.
True. Though for 2024, we still have a rational R for County Recorder, so not a problem for this year. The election of Maricopa County Recorder this year will, of course, be crucial for elections in 2026 and 2028.
Yes, thanks for the correction. Just hyperventilating a little :-)
I too have been anxious, for this and other factors. So I was reminding myself, as well as you and others.
"Do more, worry less."
We save democracy by GOTV !!
Robert Hubbell covers the Rachel Maddow episode in detail…and also shares the coolest pics taken with his telescope.🔭🪐
https://open.substack.com/pub/roberthubbell/p/defying-the-odds-trump-steals-spotlight?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
“We’ve got this. Don’t let it scare you into passivity. That’s the tyrant’s game. Don’t fall for it!”
Prof Laurence Tribe
Trump is imploding. What is the use in finding/making any sense of what he said yesterday to the Black Journalists gathered? He's non-electable and becoming a more of a madman with each passing day. Conversely, with all of the scrutiny focused on Biden's mental clarity, who's weighing in?
We need to make sure Trump NEVER returns to the White House being a felon, rapist, racist, misogynist. And Biden's Supreme Court Reform must be top-shelf
Just want to share with the family something that happened night before last here in NC. I got push-polled!
I couldn't get the pollster (who would only say they were from the "National Public Opinion Research Firm") to tell me who was paying for the poll.
The questions were definitely trying to paint Kamala as too liberal, soft on crime, a failure at the border and bad for the economy. The pollster also asked if I agreed with Kamala's position to allow abortion up to nine months! I asked her if she realized babies are born at nine months and that whole question was laughable and dishonest.
They had my name and contact info so they knew who they were getting. Prior to 2017 I had been registered unaffiliated for business reasons but had always worked on and given money to Democratic campaigns. I'm guessing they just saw an old list with a U next to my name and dialed away as though I'd be gettable.
They smell desperate. Good. LFG!
I came across two sites that I don't fully understand. Maybe someone here does.
The first site shows Kamala leading Trump for the first time, 53-49:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
The second has Trump ahead, 54-44:
https://polymarket.com/markets/politics
These are not polls, but some kind of betting platforms.
I’d argue betting markets have limited to no predictive ability. They aren’t a representative sample of the US. Additionally, you can have people that bet against their actions as a sort of hedge. For example, you can have democrats placing bets on Trump as a silver lining.
I am so proud to be part of this awesome community. It makes me feel that my small efforts to save Democracy have a more meaningful impact. Thank you all for being here! God bless you 🙏 ❤️
Agreed, Paula! Our individual efforts really add up here. Let’s keep it going! 💙
Good morning everyone. We probably should have had a postcarding campaign for Andrei Cherney in addition to the fund raising. With 2 other popular candidates he needed more than fund raising for the win. Simon, please consider, for the Hopium postcarding events, adding the Democrat running for the Maricopa County Recorders seat - Tim Stringham since Richer was defeated in yesterday's primary. A MAGAt won in the Repub primary. A CRITICAL position for 2024.