I don't see how saying that it's guaranteed to be close is anything other than stating the obvious. American national elections (sans the miracle of '08) have been very close affairs for 30 years. This is a polarized country and winning for us means turning out slightly more people in a few key states by the end of Election Day. We need to take emotion out of it. If we do our work right, in 3 weeks the most likely outcome is we defeat the baddies and elect our badass first female President. Seems like winning is the best "repudiation."
I think the thing is we need to project confidence that we are winning, but I do think that talking about a "blowout" could hurt us. If we are really poised for a blowout and the polls show it, great. Then we have to make sure people are really excited about Harris and feel good about voting for her and make it happen.
We should act like we are winning, tell people we have a better candidate who cares about them, and that we are going to work to earn the win.
I talked to a guy on the phone from PA who was a 2nd amendment guy, was NOT going to vote for Trump, but his belief he needed a gun to defend himself from a tyrannical government was a dealbreaker for Harris.
He also said "I don't think Trump has any chance of winning". Now, this is an excuse to not vote for Harris. It was used repeatedly by voters turned off by the 2016 race, or people who disliked both candidates. I campaigned a lot in 2016 and I heard all the time from voters the view that "Trump can't win" as an excuse to not vote for Hilary (who some voters were not excited about-- (~25 years of GOP attacks, FBI+Comey, emails, Russian disinformation, etc.) The election I think felt dirty and grubby and not inspiring to voters who stayed home because they assumed someone else would take care of business.
So I think perception of a "close" election isn't going to hurt us. It might help us. Especially when our candidate has better fav/unfavs, and many people are genuinely excited about her.
The "death blow" to MAGA isn't going to come in one election cycle. I think it is more complex than that. Cutting the head off the snake will have a profound effect. A decisive blowout Democratic victory may not do much more than that. The reason I think that is that the GOP is, assuming Trump loses, going to be seen for what it is -- a zombie party with no real leaders. Trump off the scene leaves a vacuum. We are going to have to beat them down for a few cycles I think until someone can come with a plan to rebuild a center-right party that isn't dangerous.
None of the current elected GOP politicians are ever going to get the Trump stench off, and none of the old-school GOPers have anything to offer the base. They seem to think they can go back to the pre-Trump party and pretend like nothing weird happened. Their level of delusional thinking astounds me. This got away from them and now they are not in control.
The base isn't going away but needs adult supervision that isn't there. It isn't going to happen overnight.
She should, as you say, win by a "landslide". Maybe it can happen. But I'm not sure focussing on that, or that it might happen, actually helps us at all.
I would have told the gun guy that Harris and Walz are both gun owners who favor common sense gun regulation, and as a convicted felon Trump cannot legally own a gun.
I did tell that guy that Harris owns a Glock. He knew. Didn't matter. He said she opposed large magazines and assault rifles. End of story. That was a deal breaker. This conversation was ~20 minutes long.
I just found it striking that he needed a gun to protect himself from a tyrannical government, yet he wasn't going to vote affirmatively for Harris against someone who is promising government tyranny. I could tell he'd not thought of it that way.
But at the end of the conversation, Harris's views on gun regulation was a dealbreaker.
I suppose you never know that you might've planted a seed. It was one day before Trump went on Fox saying he might use the military against citizens and not just against illegal immigrants. I guess one never knows.
Seriously, what are you talking about here? The election is close today. We just have to work hard and go make it not close. There is no one in Democratic politics who thinks this thing is anything but close right now. Can we make it not close in the coming weeks? Sure. But right now it is close.
Miles, yes the polls could be off by 5 points. A meteor could hit the Earth tomorrow. Anything is possible. But we are dealing with the data in front of us right now, understanding that our data has been wrong in the past, but this is all we can do. I wish it were otherwise, but I am just going to say that I find this whole exchange to be a bit self-indulgent and unhelpful. You can raise all this without calling my analysis "disappointing" when it is the consensus of literally everyone in the entire business right now.
Miles we don't have time for this self-indulgent stuff. I am have banned you from commenting until after the election. If you want a full refund contact me directly. Thank you.
Miles, when I watched that North Carolina rally and seen the incredible enthusiasm I sometimes think it won't be as close as it seems right now. Stuart Stevens thinks Kamala is going to win in a blow out!
I personally agree with Stuart Stevens that it "won't be close". I feel Harris-Walz will win, and they'll call it early. However, in the BIG PICTURE, that is unimportant. There is something more important we're doing.
In my view, the campaign we're having--all this joy and hard work and outreach--is about the kind of America we want to have. We want to be able to talk with each other again. To have Thanksgiving again as a family. Stacey Abrams and Julia Robets said it best a couple of days ago.
Well said! IMHO I envision a landslide! I believed this a while back (no recent data, just hunch). I have never had any friends ruminate about voting for a dictator for a change of pace. Abortion issue is a basic issue of freedom, an American issue. Now that he is standing on stage listening to violent lyrics (have you translated those Italian opera songs?) I believe that K has made her point (exhit a - infinity), she is making her case and bringing people together. I went to a store today and felt unusual vibes of contentment and communication. Projection ? Maybe.
I am scientific (engineer) and I'm very woo woo. I envision a Blue Map. I saw Florida turn Blue because of Amendment 4. You need 60% to pass which only makes women more determined to GOTV. The Harris-Walz language of moving forward and turning the page is just so RIGHT for us at this time. Instead of scaring us with a loss of our Democracy, Harris-Walz is inviting us toward a more perfect union. My sister is not woo woo at all and she also sees a Blue Map in her imagination. I feel that America has fallen in love with our Vice President and it feels good.
Stuart thank you for voting in Nevada, but I am taking your post down for it is dumping worry in here. Not what we do ever, and certainly not with three weeks out. Everything is close and we are fighting hard. S
Simon, i cannot thank you enough for keeping this space all about doing and moving towards our goal, not about worrying and downspinning. Thank you for monitoring and protecting the community.
Yeah, that's great too! But remember, family members or friends you meet every week at the local McDonald's count as 3-4 people too. Voting happens from the bottom-up. Community connections matter, and it's how we'll heal the divide in our country post-election (hopefully, post-Harris victory).
Well placed comments on social media...."Not suckers or losers" to vets groups, military, military dependents, history sites. Vote vets has thousands of testimonials of 2020 Trump voters that flipped. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans or active duty members on Facebook, and 12.5 million family members of veterans or active duty members on Facebook.
Trump hates dogs. Pet/animal charity sites. Trump stole from kids with cancer.
Early voting starts Thurs. here in NC. I plan to vote on Day 1!!
This morning I was doing a literature drop in my neighborhood to households that were not reached via phonebanks or canvasses. I noticed that one of the items included in the packet talked about voting on Day 1.
I think there are two big things everyone here needs know about polls:
1) Weighting. You have to make an educated guess about who shows up on Election Day. You conduct the poll to understand how your different subgroups feel and report their voting intentions. But you the pollster decides how much impact to give each subgroup. E.g. If you overweight white rural men without a college degree, Trump looks more popular.
How each poll creates its model is a larger source of variance than they’re getting on how groups of voters intend to vote. This is a big way R leaning pollsters manipulate the polls.
2) Other sources of polling error. The margin of error in a poll only refers to sampling error. This is if you have 500 red and 500 blue jelly beans, how close is your sample of 20 to 10 of each.
There is also:
- Coverage, did your poll cover the entire electorate? Maybe there are also purple jelly
beans in there, but your poll excluded them.
- Non-response: Did a bunch of a certain demographic not respond which made your sample no longer valid? Maybe blue jelly beans simply don’t respond at high enough levels so those who do aren’t a representative sample
- Measurement: Did your questions accurately gauge people’s intentions.
These 3 errors increase the actual polling miss to well more than what is stated by the margin of error.
So polls are a data point, but don’t use them as your single source of truth. They’re simply not precise enough to determine future election results.
Yes, this is important context Ben. Also, to add to your post it's also worth noting a couple of other things:
1. Each poll has it's own weighting strategy, but the vast majority of them are trying to account for the "shy" Trump voters they believe were the cause of polling misses in prior elections where Trump was on the ballot (which would shade the poll on Trump's favor). Then, the polling averages such as 538 and the Silver Bulletin then also do their own weightings based on their proprietary methods (which primarily also shade the polls towards Trump). This means that there are multiple layers of weightings and other adjustments behind the polling averages, which in my view makes them not much more reliable than throwing a dart blindfolded facing away from the dart board.
2. There are far fewer swing state polls than national polls, that's why the swing state polls seem to jump around while the national numbers remain fairly static.
My overall take on the polls is that they will prove to have OVERestimated Trump's support this time, which is good from the standpoint of Harris winning, but bad as he will use it to say the election was stolen.
Great points, Bryan. And the fact that each poll tweeks the knobs slightly differently, combining multiple polls either adds error in one direction or slightly cancels some error. It just isn't "hard" data. We can't let polls dictate our mental health! Lol
OK Hopium Peeps, three weeks to go, so WELCOME TO THE GRIND!
RISE AND SHINE! 6am and your hand can’t make it to the alarm clock before the voices in your head start telling you that it’s too early, too dark, and too cold to get out of bed.
But, the voice you’ve chosen to listen to is one of defiance.
A voice that’s says there was a reason you set that alarm in the first place. So, sit up, put your feet on the floor, and don’t look back because we’ve got work to do. WELCOME TO THE GRIND. For what is each day but a series of choices between the right way and the easy way. And when you make that choice, when you decide to turn your back on what’s easy, what’s safe and what some would call “common sense”, well that’s day one. From here on out it only gets tougher. Because the easy way out will always be there, ready to wash you away, all you have to do is quit. But you aren’t going to, are you? With each step comes the decision to take another. We’re on our way now.
But this is no time to dwell on how far we’ve come since Harris became the nominee. We’re in a fight against an opponent we can’t see. Oh, but you can feel him on your heels, can’t you? Feel him breathing down your neck. You know what that is? It is you. Your fears, your doubts and insecurities all lined up like a firing squad ready to shoot you out of the sky. But don’t lose heart While MAGA isn’t easily defeated, they are FAR from invincible .Remember this is The Grind.
The Battle Royale between you and your mind, your soul and MAGA who’s telling you that this is just a game, this is just a waste of time, your opponents are stronger than you. Drown out the voice of uncertainty with the sound of your own heartbeat. Burn away your self-doubt with the fire that’s beneath you. Remember what we’re fighting for and never doubt what you are doing makes a difference. Because as so as long as the devil is hiding the details, the question remains, “is that all you got?”, “are you sure?” So, believe that voice that says” and that” you CAN work a little harder” and that” you CAN dig a little deeper” and that, for us Hopium peeps, the laws of physics are merely a suggestion. Luck is the last dying wish of those who wanna believe that winning can happen by accident, sweat on the other hand is for those who know it’s a choice, so decide now because destiny waits for no one. And when our time comes on November 5, listen instead to that voice. The one that says we are ready! We are prepared! It is all up to us now! So, Rise and Shine!
40 GOTV postcards posted to MI today (Activate America has addresses for mailing by Oct. 20). 1000 to NC and GA tomorrow. And more than that ready to go on the 24th (OH, MN, IA, FL).
I'm writing Field Team 6 postcards for NC. Since we have one-stop same-day registration and vote during the early voting period (Oct 17 - Nov 2) they can be written up until Oct. 26th!
Cheryl thanks for posting your helpful suggestions for the "DO MORE" part -- one of the BEST uses of the discussion board!!! Yeah!!! I had sent out a TON of postcards to NC but didn't see any more NC addresses available on the three other postcard services I use. I will check out FT6 for more NC addresses as you posted, since my real "personal cause" is North Carolina--I feel like it's a brick wall (or at least important brick in the wall) to stop the "Orange Cheeto."
P.S. Cheryl in my head there is no more Team Hopium now, it's only Team DMWL going forward (grin)
There are two FT6 campaigns for NC - one is state-wide and the newer one is for Mecklenburg County (which includes Charlotte where I live). I recently switched to that one. Meck County could flip the state for Kamala!!
FYI there are still almost 45K addresses of prospective voters on the FT-6 platform between these two campaigns.
Thank you! I too have made calls, sent post cards and will early vote in California!! So concerned about getting the vote out in strategic places! Part you are correct! As a retired educator this is for the future of our country!?
Each day, I find myself asking if Hopium is real or if I'm self-deluding in believing its message as opposed to the daily barrage of bad polling. What I have finally decided is that your analysis offers a reasonable theory of the case, numerical reasons why (apart from evaluating the positions of the candidates in terms of my own perspectives) the polls may be wrong.
What pollsters and poll-obsessives seem not to understand is that if, say, Arizona moved two points in Trump's direction, there should be reasons why that is true if it is. This is never offered.
Hopium Chronicles provides context. Pollsters don't. Now that we are in the final stages, and I am busy doing things (canvassing, putting up signs) I find even less value in reading polls.
It's so weird to me that we are viewing the current polling numbers as "bad" or "good." They just kind of ARE. Each one can be way off from the average, and even the average is almost always off by a bit.
Besides, to my mind "bad" polling would show our side losing, which is not what we are seeing at all. We are seeing a slim but consistent lead for our candidate ever since she entered the race. Yes, every swing state is a toss-up, but that means she has multiple paths to 270. If she's ahead by 2-3 points, that is winning range, but that is also the range where a single poll could be a tie or Harris +5, and both would be reasonable results. Her worst possible scenario right now is a tie with a few weeks to improve, her best scenario is already comfortably winning, and the most likely scenario is that we have an edge and still need to close the deal. Being ahead is "good" not "bad."
The reasons given by some tool from the Hoover institute is that trump's messaging on the border and prices are resonating. But no data is offered.....
As an Arizonan, I can tell you that that message resonates, but it resonates with the same people it has resonated with for the last eight years. I don't think it moves anyone at this point.
You can phone bank any day if you are not picky about which candidate. Here is a Mobilize query for Virtual Phonebanks. You can refine the search by adding more filters.
Yeah, I looked at the NYT crosstabs for Arizona: the poll shows trump beating Harris by +5... BUT Also show the sample breakdown - Democrats 44% vs Republicans 51%. It also shows prop 139 (abortion) winning 52% to 33%. The final obvious problem is that Gallego beating Lake 48% - 41%, yet in the exact same poll it also shows Arizona voters want republicans to control the US Senate 50% - 44%. That makes no sense at all.
The numbers sound pretty consistent to me if you look at the top lines. Gallego is under 50% in that poll, so 50% may indeed want Rs to control the senate … but they also don’t want Lake for their senator. They know she’s nuts.
Abortion referendum has slightly higher support at 52% and not much opposition leaving many undecideds. So it all comes down to 1) turnout on each side and 2) how and if undecided voters vote.
Here's a thought: it struck me this week that disinformation regarding FEMA response and the consequential fallout/hurt caused to vulnerable people in need is very similar to Trump's COVID response. At the end of the day, Americans are marginalized (in a most desperate time) because of strategic lies and crazy conspiracy theories. I haven't heard a direct tie between the two events but it sure feels like the same old playbook.
Lucky to be in California with early voting starting on Oct 8th and lots of drop boxes and locations to drop off my ballot. We always have a lot of propositions to wade thru but I was ready the night my ballot came in the mail. I sent all the links I use to check endorsements to my friends who were very grateful. I got my ballot in the morning of the first day of voting. All my friends were right behind me that first week and we sent pics of us all dropping off our ballots! Thank you Simon for encouraging us and bringing the sanity back to this election. Ok ..back to postcarding 😘
I’m also the person who compiles all the links and info for the ballot initiatives and sends it out to everyone before our ballots arrive in Oregon. We’ve got some big ones this time- ranked choice voting!
Thank you Simon for your analysis, insights, and clear vision! We can win this thing, and I believe we will, but we have to do the work every day for the next 23 days!
Miles,
Just D.M.W.L. and all will be fine!
I don't see how saying that it's guaranteed to be close is anything other than stating the obvious. American national elections (sans the miracle of '08) have been very close affairs for 30 years. This is a polarized country and winning for us means turning out slightly more people in a few key states by the end of Election Day. We need to take emotion out of it. If we do our work right, in 3 weeks the most likely outcome is we defeat the baddies and elect our badass first female President. Seems like winning is the best "repudiation."
I think the thing is we need to project confidence that we are winning, but I do think that talking about a "blowout" could hurt us. If we are really poised for a blowout and the polls show it, great. Then we have to make sure people are really excited about Harris and feel good about voting for her and make it happen.
We should act like we are winning, tell people we have a better candidate who cares about them, and that we are going to work to earn the win.
I talked to a guy on the phone from PA who was a 2nd amendment guy, was NOT going to vote for Trump, but his belief he needed a gun to defend himself from a tyrannical government was a dealbreaker for Harris.
He also said "I don't think Trump has any chance of winning". Now, this is an excuse to not vote for Harris. It was used repeatedly by voters turned off by the 2016 race, or people who disliked both candidates. I campaigned a lot in 2016 and I heard all the time from voters the view that "Trump can't win" as an excuse to not vote for Hilary (who some voters were not excited about-- (~25 years of GOP attacks, FBI+Comey, emails, Russian disinformation, etc.) The election I think felt dirty and grubby and not inspiring to voters who stayed home because they assumed someone else would take care of business.
So I think perception of a "close" election isn't going to hurt us. It might help us. Especially when our candidate has better fav/unfavs, and many people are genuinely excited about her.
The "death blow" to MAGA isn't going to come in one election cycle. I think it is more complex than that. Cutting the head off the snake will have a profound effect. A decisive blowout Democratic victory may not do much more than that. The reason I think that is that the GOP is, assuming Trump loses, going to be seen for what it is -- a zombie party with no real leaders. Trump off the scene leaves a vacuum. We are going to have to beat them down for a few cycles I think until someone can come with a plan to rebuild a center-right party that isn't dangerous.
None of the current elected GOP politicians are ever going to get the Trump stench off, and none of the old-school GOPers have anything to offer the base. They seem to think they can go back to the pre-Trump party and pretend like nothing weird happened. Their level of delusional thinking astounds me. This got away from them and now they are not in control.
The base isn't going away but needs adult supervision that isn't there. It isn't going to happen overnight.
She should, as you say, win by a "landslide". Maybe it can happen. But I'm not sure focussing on that, or that it might happen, actually helps us at all.
I would have told the gun guy that Harris and Walz are both gun owners who favor common sense gun regulation, and as a convicted felon Trump cannot legally own a gun.
I did tell that guy that Harris owns a Glock. He knew. Didn't matter. He said she opposed large magazines and assault rifles. End of story. That was a deal breaker. This conversation was ~20 minutes long.
I just found it striking that he needed a gun to protect himself from a tyrannical government, yet he wasn't going to vote affirmatively for Harris against someone who is promising government tyranny. I could tell he'd not thought of it that way.
But at the end of the conversation, Harris's views on gun regulation was a dealbreaker.
Well, I sincerely applaud you for trying, 20 minutes is long time to bang your head against the wall. There's just no getting through to some people.
I suppose you never know that you might've planted a seed. It was one day before Trump went on Fox saying he might use the military against citizens and not just against illegal immigrants. I guess one never knows.
Seriously, what are you talking about here? The election is close today. We just have to work hard and go make it not close. There is no one in Democratic politics who thinks this thing is anything but close right now. Can we make it not close in the coming weeks? Sure. But right now it is close.
Miles, yes the polls could be off by 5 points. A meteor could hit the Earth tomorrow. Anything is possible. But we are dealing with the data in front of us right now, understanding that our data has been wrong in the past, but this is all we can do. I wish it were otherwise, but I am just going to say that I find this whole exchange to be a bit self-indulgent and unhelpful. You can raise all this without calling my analysis "disappointing" when it is the consensus of literally everyone in the entire business right now.
Miles we don't have time for this self-indulgent stuff. I am have banned you from commenting until after the election. If you want a full refund contact me directly. Thank you.
Miles, when I watched that North Carolina rally and seen the incredible enthusiasm I sometimes think it won't be as close as it seems right now. Stuart Stevens thinks Kamala is going to win in a blow out!
I personally agree with Stuart Stevens that it "won't be close". I feel Harris-Walz will win, and they'll call it early. However, in the BIG PICTURE, that is unimportant. There is something more important we're doing.
In my view, the campaign we're having--all this joy and hard work and outreach--is about the kind of America we want to have. We want to be able to talk with each other again. To have Thanksgiving again as a family. Stacey Abrams and Julia Robets said it best a couple of days ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccaPGDGFsm8
Well said!!
Well said! IMHO I envision a landslide! I believed this a while back (no recent data, just hunch). I have never had any friends ruminate about voting for a dictator for a change of pace. Abortion issue is a basic issue of freedom, an American issue. Now that he is standing on stage listening to violent lyrics (have you translated those Italian opera songs?) I believe that K has made her point (exhit a - infinity), she is making her case and bringing people together. I went to a store today and felt unusual vibes of contentment and communication. Projection ? Maybe.
I am scientific (engineer) and I'm very woo woo. I envision a Blue Map. I saw Florida turn Blue because of Amendment 4. You need 60% to pass which only makes women more determined to GOTV. The Harris-Walz language of moving forward and turning the page is just so RIGHT for us at this time. Instead of scaring us with a loss of our Democracy, Harris-Walz is inviting us toward a more perfect union. My sister is not woo woo at all and she also sees a Blue Map in her imagination. I feel that America has fallen in love with our Vice President and it feels good.
Yayayay, thank you for voting early, please get all your friends/family/neighbors/young folks to do the same!
Fellow North Carolinian who will be voting early in person on Thursday
No.
Stuart thank you for voting in Nevada, but I am taking your post down for it is dumping worry in here. Not what we do ever, and certainly not with three weeks out. Everything is close and we are fighting hard. S
Sorry about that
Simon, i cannot thank you enough for keeping this space all about doing and moving towards our goal, not about worrying and downspinning. Thank you for monitoring and protecting the community.
I second that. STFU with the negativity. Only Hopium allowed up in here!
Currently standing in line to early vote in Ohio! Is about a 15-20 minute line.
Great! And remember to get 3-4 friends in Ohio to make a plan to vote too!
Sorry. My phonebanking instincts are setting in. But we need Sherrod to win!
Fair enough. I put my blue vote flag up on the 8th, so hopefully that reminds people they don’t have to wait for Election Day.
Yeah, that's great too! But remember, family members or friends you meet every week at the local McDonald's count as 3-4 people too. Voting happens from the bottom-up. Community connections matter, and it's how we'll heal the divide in our country post-election (hopefully, post-Harris victory).
We have the capacity to flip Trump 2020 voters. . https://rvat.org/
Well placed comments on social media...."Not suckers or losers" to vets groups, military, military dependents, history sites. Vote vets has thousands of testimonials of 2020 Trump voters that flipped. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans or active duty members on Facebook, and 12.5 million family members of veterans or active duty members on Facebook.
Trump hates dogs. Pet/animal charity sites. Trump stole from kids with cancer.
DNC 2024 Victory (dncorganizeeverywhere.slack.com) is recruiting callers.
Your work just got a little (or a lot) easier: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/14/republican-lawsuit-military-ballots-backlash/.
Blocked.
I have been involved in social media blitz, sharing opportune facts about repub activity in pertinent state related pages.
I've also been telling EVERYONE I KNOW to vote early on Day 1 of early voting, and to tell everyone that they know to do so.
Two friends (or more) have donated to the Tester campaign. One using our link. I am sharing the importance of winning the Senate.
I agree, Susan. I just stretched my budget to donate to both Tester and Brown. We must take the Senate!
Early voting starts Thurs. here in NC. I plan to vote on Day 1!!
This morning I was doing a literature drop in my neighborhood to households that were not reached via phonebanks or canvasses. I noticed that one of the items included in the packet talked about voting on Day 1.
Dropped off my batch of 25 vote forward letters to NC voters. Going back for more!
Thanks for helping NC! I'm also working on my backlog of Vote Forward letters. I have been writing so many postcards that I am behind on letters!
I think there are two big things everyone here needs know about polls:
1) Weighting. You have to make an educated guess about who shows up on Election Day. You conduct the poll to understand how your different subgroups feel and report their voting intentions. But you the pollster decides how much impact to give each subgroup. E.g. If you overweight white rural men without a college degree, Trump looks more popular.
How each poll creates its model is a larger source of variance than they’re getting on how groups of voters intend to vote. This is a big way R leaning pollsters manipulate the polls.
2) Other sources of polling error. The margin of error in a poll only refers to sampling error. This is if you have 500 red and 500 blue jelly beans, how close is your sample of 20 to 10 of each.
There is also:
- Coverage, did your poll cover the entire electorate? Maybe there are also purple jelly
beans in there, but your poll excluded them.
- Non-response: Did a bunch of a certain demographic not respond which made your sample no longer valid? Maybe blue jelly beans simply don’t respond at high enough levels so those who do aren’t a representative sample
- Measurement: Did your questions accurately gauge people’s intentions.
These 3 errors increase the actual polling miss to well more than what is stated by the margin of error.
So polls are a data point, but don’t use them as your single source of truth. They’re simply not precise enough to determine future election results.
I compare polls to taking my blood pressure. They are indicators not predictors of future events.
Yes, this is important context Ben. Also, to add to your post it's also worth noting a couple of other things:
1. Each poll has it's own weighting strategy, but the vast majority of them are trying to account for the "shy" Trump voters they believe were the cause of polling misses in prior elections where Trump was on the ballot (which would shade the poll on Trump's favor). Then, the polling averages such as 538 and the Silver Bulletin then also do their own weightings based on their proprietary methods (which primarily also shade the polls towards Trump). This means that there are multiple layers of weightings and other adjustments behind the polling averages, which in my view makes them not much more reliable than throwing a dart blindfolded facing away from the dart board.
2. There are far fewer swing state polls than national polls, that's why the swing state polls seem to jump around while the national numbers remain fairly static.
My overall take on the polls is that they will prove to have OVERestimated Trump's support this time, which is good from the standpoint of Harris winning, but bad as he will use it to say the election was stolen.
Great points, Bryan. And the fact that each poll tweeks the knobs slightly differently, combining multiple polls either adds error in one direction or slightly cancels some error. It just isn't "hard" data. We can't let polls dictate our mental health! Lol
OK Hopium Peeps, three weeks to go, so WELCOME TO THE GRIND!
RISE AND SHINE! 6am and your hand can’t make it to the alarm clock before the voices in your head start telling you that it’s too early, too dark, and too cold to get out of bed.
But, the voice you’ve chosen to listen to is one of defiance.
A voice that’s says there was a reason you set that alarm in the first place. So, sit up, put your feet on the floor, and don’t look back because we’ve got work to do. WELCOME TO THE GRIND. For what is each day but a series of choices between the right way and the easy way. And when you make that choice, when you decide to turn your back on what’s easy, what’s safe and what some would call “common sense”, well that’s day one. From here on out it only gets tougher. Because the easy way out will always be there, ready to wash you away, all you have to do is quit. But you aren’t going to, are you? With each step comes the decision to take another. We’re on our way now.
But this is no time to dwell on how far we’ve come since Harris became the nominee. We’re in a fight against an opponent we can’t see. Oh, but you can feel him on your heels, can’t you? Feel him breathing down your neck. You know what that is? It is you. Your fears, your doubts and insecurities all lined up like a firing squad ready to shoot you out of the sky. But don’t lose heart While MAGA isn’t easily defeated, they are FAR from invincible .Remember this is The Grind.
The Battle Royale between you and your mind, your soul and MAGA who’s telling you that this is just a game, this is just a waste of time, your opponents are stronger than you. Drown out the voice of uncertainty with the sound of your own heartbeat. Burn away your self-doubt with the fire that’s beneath you. Remember what we’re fighting for and never doubt what you are doing makes a difference. Because as so as long as the devil is hiding the details, the question remains, “is that all you got?”, “are you sure?” So, believe that voice that says” and that” you CAN work a little harder” and that” you CAN dig a little deeper” and that, for us Hopium peeps, the laws of physics are merely a suggestion. Luck is the last dying wish of those who wanna believe that winning can happen by accident, sweat on the other hand is for those who know it’s a choice, so decide now because destiny waits for no one. And when our time comes on November 5, listen instead to that voice. The one that says we are ready! We are prepared! It is all up to us now! So, Rise and Shine!
Love this, thank you!
So good!! Thank you. Working on my postcards for NC today!
40 GOTV postcards posted to MI today (Activate America has addresses for mailing by Oct. 20). 1000 to NC and GA tomorrow. And more than that ready to go on the 24th (OH, MN, IA, FL).
Great work! Finishing strong.
I'm writing Field Team 6 postcards for NC. Since we have one-stop same-day registration and vote during the early voting period (Oct 17 - Nov 2) they can be written up until Oct. 26th!
Cheryl thanks for posting your helpful suggestions for the "DO MORE" part -- one of the BEST uses of the discussion board!!! Yeah!!! I had sent out a TON of postcards to NC but didn't see any more NC addresses available on the three other postcard services I use. I will check out FT6 for more NC addresses as you posted, since my real "personal cause" is North Carolina--I feel like it's a brick wall (or at least important brick in the wall) to stop the "Orange Cheeto."
P.S. Cheryl in my head there is no more Team Hopium now, it's only Team DMWL going forward (grin)
💙💙💙
There are two FT6 campaigns for NC - one is state-wide and the newer one is for Mecklenburg County (which includes Charlotte where I live). I recently switched to that one. Meck County could flip the state for Kamala!!
FYI there are still almost 45K addresses of prospective voters on the FT-6 platform between these two campaigns.
https://fieldteam6.herokuapp.com/select_campaign
Thank you! I too have made calls, sent post cards and will early vote in California!! So concerned about getting the vote out in strategic places! Part you are correct! As a retired educator this is for the future of our country!?
Each day, I find myself asking if Hopium is real or if I'm self-deluding in believing its message as opposed to the daily barrage of bad polling. What I have finally decided is that your analysis offers a reasonable theory of the case, numerical reasons why (apart from evaluating the positions of the candidates in terms of my own perspectives) the polls may be wrong.
What pollsters and poll-obsessives seem not to understand is that if, say, Arizona moved two points in Trump's direction, there should be reasons why that is true if it is. This is never offered.
Hopium Chronicles provides context. Pollsters don't. Now that we are in the final stages, and I am busy doing things (canvassing, putting up signs) I find even less value in reading polls.
Damn the polls! Full speed ahead!
SO agree Steve !!!
It's so weird to me that we are viewing the current polling numbers as "bad" or "good." They just kind of ARE. Each one can be way off from the average, and even the average is almost always off by a bit.
Besides, to my mind "bad" polling would show our side losing, which is not what we are seeing at all. We are seeing a slim but consistent lead for our candidate ever since she entered the race. Yes, every swing state is a toss-up, but that means she has multiple paths to 270. If she's ahead by 2-3 points, that is winning range, but that is also the range where a single poll could be a tie or Harris +5, and both would be reasonable results. Her worst possible scenario right now is a tie with a few weeks to improve, her best scenario is already comfortably winning, and the most likely scenario is that we have an edge and still need to close the deal. Being ahead is "good" not "bad."
The reasons given by some tool from the Hoover institute is that trump's messaging on the border and prices are resonating. But no data is offered.....
As an Arizonan, I can tell you that that message resonates, but it resonates with the same people it has resonated with for the last eight years. I don't think it moves anyone at this point.
I can't make it Thursday, can I phonebank on Friday?
You can phone bank any day if you are not picky about which candidate. Here is a Mobilize query for Virtual Phonebanks. You can refine the search by adding more filters.
https://www.mobilize.us/?event_type=2&is_virtual=true
Yeah, I looked at the NYT crosstabs for Arizona: the poll shows trump beating Harris by +5... BUT Also show the sample breakdown - Democrats 44% vs Republicans 51%. It also shows prop 139 (abortion) winning 52% to 33%. The final obvious problem is that Gallego beating Lake 48% - 41%, yet in the exact same poll it also shows Arizona voters want republicans to control the US Senate 50% - 44%. That makes no sense at all.
The numbers sound pretty consistent to me if you look at the top lines. Gallego is under 50% in that poll, so 50% may indeed want Rs to control the senate … but they also don’t want Lake for their senator. They know she’s nuts.
Abortion referendum has slightly higher support at 52% and not much opposition leaving many undecideds. So it all comes down to 1) turnout on each side and 2) how and if undecided voters vote.
Oh, and 3) people changing their minds. Which could still happen!
And yes, it’s also possible there was a sampling error or the pollster did the weighting wrong.
Thank you Simon !!!!!!! 🎉🤗🤺🎉
Here's a thought: it struck me this week that disinformation regarding FEMA response and the consequential fallout/hurt caused to vulnerable people in need is very similar to Trump's COVID response. At the end of the day, Americans are marginalized (in a most desperate time) because of strategic lies and crazy conspiracy theories. I haven't heard a direct tie between the two events but it sure feels like the same old playbook.
Gonna use this in my final pull out all the stops conversations with Republican relatives.
Good point 👍
Lucky to be in California with early voting starting on Oct 8th and lots of drop boxes and locations to drop off my ballot. We always have a lot of propositions to wade thru but I was ready the night my ballot came in the mail. I sent all the links I use to check endorsements to my friends who were very grateful. I got my ballot in the morning of the first day of voting. All my friends were right behind me that first week and we sent pics of us all dropping off our ballots! Thank you Simon for encouraging us and bringing the sanity back to this election. Ok ..back to postcarding 😘
Thanks for this. Will add this guide to the list of guides I look at 👍
I'm in LA and dropped my ballot at a drop box yesterday, felt great!
just like I felt voting for Hilary!
It really did feel especially great this year.
I’m also the person who compiles all the links and info for the ballot initiatives and sends it out to everyone before our ballots arrive in Oregon. We’ve got some big ones this time- ranked choice voting!
I have always done that for myself and just never thought about sending it to others. Will do so from now on!
Thank you Simon for your analysis, insights, and clear vision! We can win this thing, and I believe we will, but we have to do the work every day for the next 23 days!