Just donated for the 4th time from Blue Minnesota. Doing what I can from afar to support the candidates you suggest can flip seats. Thanks for rallying the grassroots, Simon!
Doing it! Little crew here wrote 150 postcards, I've donated $ a few times and made calls with campaign last night. (That was AMAZINGLY well organized and fun!)
I did my part writing postcards on Sunday for Suozzi. It looks like there is a lot of energy in the Suozzi campaign, while the other side is not really doing a lot of public engagement. I'm just glad to see Dems investing in the NY and California seats that lost them the House in 2022. As long as they keep outraising the GOP, and as long as GOP leaders keep turning on one another (their hatred for us is NOTHING compared to the ill will they bear toward one another), we can stay competitive with the House.
I made the last three of them and really enjoyed it.
Last year I got involved in a couple of ZOOM postcard/letter writing parties - one in MD and the other in CA (I'm in NC). The CA group (Swing Left Inland Valley) have already started back up and I attended Saturday - it was like getting together with old friends. You can find the info on Mobilize if anyone is interested.
Usually write with Indivisible Evanston which is also FUN but sometimes I have time to engage with other groups. Will check yours out, Cheryl! Maybe I'll see you there.
We write postcards at Indivisible Evanston (Illinois… North border of Chicago) on zoom on Monday evenings from 7 to 9 central. No campaign going on right now but there will be soon. Can be found on Facebook. If you want to write with us, using IE postcards, let me know and I will send you the postcards and info. Postage is up to you. We usually write GO TV postcards to Midwest swing states.
Simon, as your local correspondent noted, the Jewish vote is not a given. It was a complete shock to me when I found out last week that the GOP candidate was not only Jewish but an Israeli as well. That’s why she was selected by the GOP.
Many of us can’t set aside hours at a time, especially at specific times, but most if us can find 20 minutes here or there to make some calls. Even if you don’t reach anyone or get a wrong number that’s one call someone else didn’t have to make that gives them a better chance to reach a voter. Calling is a numbers game and all of us doing a little bit each adds up.
Hi Simon, thanks for the early results in NY-03. Per Ballotpedia it looks like 271K voters voted in 2022 in this district. I know voter turnout is generally lower in special elections, so do you have any idea what would be rated a "good" turnout for this race? I'm trying to get an idea of whether VBM and in-person EV is significant in the larger scheme of things.
I know that early voting is very location dependent. We have robost early voting where I Iive. In the most recent 2023 municipal election we had hugely dissapointing overall turnout, but combined VBM and in-person EV was slightly over a third of the votes in Mecklenburg County (NC). In 2022, we had anemic overall turnout, but 52% of it was in-person EV and 6.7% was VBM. In 2020 (due to Covid), we had a whopping 88% of the vote come from either in-person EV (64%) or VBM (24%).
Just sent my fourth donation to Tom S’s campaign…. Rs have done a lot of stuff in my lifetime that pissed me off….but this situation with the border/military aid package is next level. What a bunch of fucking cowards and traitors. Mitch McConnell is more responsible than any other human being for the mess we’re in, and I hope his name will be vilified profoundly in future historical accounts.
Dropped off my final set of postcards for Tom Suozzi at the post office yesterday and just made another contribution to the campaign.
Also - it's great to see the Biden-Harris HQ accounts on both Twitter & Threads highlight Simon's appearance on Lawrence O'Donnell last night: "What's happening here for the Republicans is their central arguments against Biden are all evaporating. The economy is strong, inflation is way down, and crime is way down." Amen!
You are a well-needed breath of reality these days. I do believe we can prevail in November in a fair fight. Trump will feel desperate and who knows what tricks they will pull. He won't accept the results even if he gets a thumping. That is what keeps me up at night. Thank you again for what you do.
The Suozzi campaign was recommending that all postcards be mailed out today unless you live in NY, NJ, or CT. (I got this from the Sundays for Suozzi postcard party on Sunday). I much prefer postcards, but I figure they know what is best, so I'm signed up for a phone bank this evening. It will help take my mind off the GOP members in Congress that are currently dancing to Donald Trump's will!
If anyone is looking for a new postcard project, Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) is writng to prospective voters in NC-01 (Don Davis's district) to help them get registered among other campaigns. The NC postcards have three messages to choose from - one about reproductive rights, one about the GOP giving tax cuts to rich while trying to cut Social Security/Medicare, and the third about MAGA using fear to divide us.
For those who might be interested, today I ran a very similar analysis to what Simon discussed yesterday in his post, but to look at effects of time, partisan lean, and population (adults vs. registered voters vs. likely voters) on Biden's approval ratings across all 83 approval polls published from Jan 1 - Feb 5.
For approval ratings, study population is a bigger player than partisan lean, at least on the surface. For polls of all adults, Biden's average net approval is -19.0. For registered voters, it's -16.4. For likely voters, it's -12.2. That's an almost 7 point difference between polls of adults and likely voters! It's consistent with less engaged people being less enthusiastic about Biden's performance.
One side note: similar to how Morning Consult is overrepresented in Biden v. Trump horse race polls, Rasmussen Reports is overrepresented in Biden's approval polls. So, I re-ran the analysis excluding Rasmussen Reports. Results showed that the effect of population was still highly significant (-18.6 for adults vs. -15.9 for registered voters vs. -13.5 for likely voters), but that conservative pollster lean now predicted a 3 point lower approval rating compared with non-partisan pollsters.
Re the comment: "(Interestingly, some still love Election Day voting). " I hear this a lot here in the Shenandoah Valley. I always urge those folks to vote early and then come out and volunteer on election day, either as poll workers or at our Dem table handing out sample ballots. All the fun and patriotic feeling, but you've also voted early.
A couple of recently discovered observations proving useful in bluecd2nm campaign rhetoric:
Buddhists start morality with the understanding that others' feelings and hopes are as important as your own, i.e. respect for others.
Christians start with "love your neighbor" and "do unto others," but Jesus did not tell followers to ask neighbors how they wanted to be treated or whether they want to be loved; they might just prefer respect. Gabe Vasquez is a wonderful listener, showing respect for his NM CD2 constituents, while his MAGA opponent Y. Herrell tells crowds what is good for them, on pregnancy and guns, for example.
We (bluecd2nm) are banging on the respect drum.
When we focus on the environment, I will suggest the Taoist view that man is part of nature and should live in harmony with it, rather than "it's ours to subdue," as Genesis commands. Harmony, sustainability, respect for nature, plan for our grandchildren's world, they connect with each other and with voters.
Definitely not a fan of Nikki Haley but it's fun to watch her rip into Trump & MAGA GOP's craziness. Barring some unknown event, Trump will be on the ticket but hope Nikki can stick it out to keep being a thorn in his side.
Donated again to Tom's campaign. Little donation but every bit counts! Already a monthly donor to the BIden/Harris campaign.
Just donated for the 4th time from Blue Minnesota. Doing what I can from afar to support the candidates you suggest can flip seats. Thanks for rallying the grassroots, Simon!
Doing it! Little crew here wrote 150 postcards, I've donated $ a few times and made calls with campaign last night. (That was AMAZINGLY well organized and fun!)
I did my part writing postcards on Sunday for Suozzi. It looks like there is a lot of energy in the Suozzi campaign, while the other side is not really doing a lot of public engagement. I'm just glad to see Dems investing in the NY and California seats that lost them the House in 2022. As long as they keep outraising the GOP, and as long as GOP leaders keep turning on one another (their hatred for us is NOTHING compared to the ill will they bear toward one another), we can stay competitive with the House.
Sundays for Suozzi was fun, wasn't it?
I made the last three of them and really enjoyed it.
Last year I got involved in a couple of ZOOM postcard/letter writing parties - one in MD and the other in CA (I'm in NC). The CA group (Swing Left Inland Valley) have already started back up and I attended Saturday - it was like getting together with old friends. You can find the info on Mobilize if anyone is interested.
Usually write with Indivisible Evanston which is also FUN but sometimes I have time to engage with other groups. Will check yours out, Cheryl! Maybe I'll see you there.
We write postcards at Indivisible Evanston (Illinois… North border of Chicago) on zoom on Monday evenings from 7 to 9 central. No campaign going on right now but there will be soon. Can be found on Facebook. If you want to write with us, using IE postcards, let me know and I will send you the postcards and info. Postage is up to you. We usually write GO TV postcards to Midwest swing states.
Simon, as your local correspondent noted, the Jewish vote is not a given. It was a complete shock to me when I found out last week that the GOP candidate was not only Jewish but an Israeli as well. That’s why she was selected by the GOP.
Because the GOP is so shallow they think if they just get a candidate that fits the bill in a certain ethnic group that is all they need to do.
"That’s why she was selected by the GOP".
I thought the same thing. The GOP wanted to make sure they had someone Jewish (not Jew-ish like Santos).
Swing Left has a “on your own time” phone bank that’s great for callers who are busy.
https://www.mobilize.us/swingleft/event/604135/
Many of us can’t set aside hours at a time, especially at specific times, but most if us can find 20 minutes here or there to make some calls. Even if you don’t reach anyone or get a wrong number that’s one call someone else didn’t have to make that gives them a better chance to reach a voter. Calling is a numbers game and all of us doing a little bit each adds up.
Yes! Activate America has one of those too.
Hi Simon, thanks for the early results in NY-03. Per Ballotpedia it looks like 271K voters voted in 2022 in this district. I know voter turnout is generally lower in special elections, so do you have any idea what would be rated a "good" turnout for this race? I'm trying to get an idea of whether VBM and in-person EV is significant in the larger scheme of things.
I know that early voting is very location dependent. We have robost early voting where I Iive. In the most recent 2023 municipal election we had hugely dissapointing overall turnout, but combined VBM and in-person EV was slightly over a third of the votes in Mecklenburg County (NC). In 2022, we had anemic overall turnout, but 52% of it was in-person EV and 6.7% was VBM. In 2020 (due to Covid), we had a whopping 88% of the vote come from either in-person EV (64%) or VBM (24%).
Just sent my fourth donation to Tom S’s campaign…. Rs have done a lot of stuff in my lifetime that pissed me off….but this situation with the border/military aid package is next level. What a bunch of fucking cowards and traitors. Mitch McConnell is more responsible than any other human being for the mess we’re in, and I hope his name will be vilified profoundly in future historical accounts.
100%
Dropped off my final set of postcards for Tom Suozzi at the post office yesterday and just made another contribution to the campaign.
Also - it's great to see the Biden-Harris HQ accounts on both Twitter & Threads highlight Simon's appearance on Lawrence O'Donnell last night: "What's happening here for the Republicans is their central arguments against Biden are all evaporating. The economy is strong, inflation is way down, and crime is way down." Amen!
Donated and sent postcards. Everything sounds positive🤞
You are a well-needed breath of reality these days. I do believe we can prevail in November in a fair fight. Trump will feel desperate and who knows what tricks they will pull. He won't accept the results even if he gets a thumping. That is what keeps me up at night. Thank you again for what you do.
As of 5 minutes ago, Postcards2Voters is still giving out addresses, so if you have cards, stamps, and time, the opportunity is there.
The Suozzi campaign was recommending that all postcards be mailed out today unless you live in NY, NJ, or CT. (I got this from the Sundays for Suozzi postcard party on Sunday). I much prefer postcards, but I figure they know what is best, so I'm signed up for a phone bank this evening. It will help take my mind off the GOP members in Congress that are currently dancing to Donald Trump's will!
If anyone is looking for a new postcard project, Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) is writng to prospective voters in NC-01 (Don Davis's district) to help them get registered among other campaigns. The NC postcards have three messages to choose from - one about reproductive rights, one about the GOP giving tax cuts to rich while trying to cut Social Security/Medicare, and the third about MAGA using fear to divide us.
Thanks for the update, I hadn't seen that. Mine are going out tomorrow morning.
You wouldn't if you were just downloading addresses from Postcards to Voters. They just say send them out within 3 days for every campaign.
I attended a postcard-writing party co-sponsored by his campaign. They announced it there on Sunsay.
For those who might be interested, today I ran a very similar analysis to what Simon discussed yesterday in his post, but to look at effects of time, partisan lean, and population (adults vs. registered voters vs. likely voters) on Biden's approval ratings across all 83 approval polls published from Jan 1 - Feb 5.
For approval ratings, study population is a bigger player than partisan lean, at least on the surface. For polls of all adults, Biden's average net approval is -19.0. For registered voters, it's -16.4. For likely voters, it's -12.2. That's an almost 7 point difference between polls of adults and likely voters! It's consistent with less engaged people being less enthusiastic about Biden's performance.
One side note: similar to how Morning Consult is overrepresented in Biden v. Trump horse race polls, Rasmussen Reports is overrepresented in Biden's approval polls. So, I re-ran the analysis excluding Rasmussen Reports. Results showed that the effect of population was still highly significant (-18.6 for adults vs. -15.9 for registered voters vs. -13.5 for likely voters), but that conservative pollster lean now predicted a 3 point lower approval rating compared with non-partisan pollsters.
Thanks for doing all this work - it’s awesome.
My pleasure!
Re the comment: "(Interestingly, some still love Election Day voting). " I hear this a lot here in the Shenandoah Valley. I always urge those folks to vote early and then come out and volunteer on election day, either as poll workers or at our Dem table handing out sample ballots. All the fun and patriotic feeling, but you've also voted early.
Excellent suggestion!
A couple of recently discovered observations proving useful in bluecd2nm campaign rhetoric:
Buddhists start morality with the understanding that others' feelings and hopes are as important as your own, i.e. respect for others.
Christians start with "love your neighbor" and "do unto others," but Jesus did not tell followers to ask neighbors how they wanted to be treated or whether they want to be loved; they might just prefer respect. Gabe Vasquez is a wonderful listener, showing respect for his NM CD2 constituents, while his MAGA opponent Y. Herrell tells crowds what is good for them, on pregnancy and guns, for example.
We (bluecd2nm) are banging on the respect drum.
When we focus on the environment, I will suggest the Taoist view that man is part of nature and should live in harmony with it, rather than "it's ours to subdue," as Genesis commands. Harmony, sustainability, respect for nature, plan for our grandchildren's world, they connect with each other and with voters.
Las Cruces, NM
Definitely not a fan of Nikki Haley but it's fun to watch her rip into Trump & MAGA GOP's craziness. Barring some unknown event, Trump will be on the ticket but hope Nikki can stick it out to keep being a thorn in his side.
Donated again to Tom's campaign. Little donation but every bit counts! Already a monthly donor to the BIden/Harris campaign.
I also donated again to Tom. Will do more this weekend. Go Team.