Wish I could remember (I read so many!) where the article was published this morning on poll numbers showing Donnie 3 pts over President Biden!!! Then there was all the talk yesterday about Dems being worried that Donnie can be elected again. I just don't get if it is true. It can't be because the country or an individual isn't better off then they were when Joe took over. We were damn near devistated after the Great Recession. We were on our road to recovery when Barack took over and slid back when Donnie took over. With Joe in office we have completely recovered and are a little ahead. Simon your opinion on those crazy polls. I truly do not believe them
I think his post from a couple weeks ago sums it up pretty good. Polling is expensive and hard these days due to low response rates and unpredictable voter models.....one of their biggest problems is that they don't know what the electorate will look like for the election and aren't doing as good of a job predicting it, which makes it hard to get an accurate sample size of each age, racial, ethnic, gender, educational, and economic status demographic to mirror who actually votes. Also, one of the new tricks Republicans have to screw with our elections (since they can't win majorities anymore without a major rethink of their policy platform and outdated values system) is to fund junk pollsters, and flood the zone with bullshit polls with poor methodology, small sample sizes, and lazy questioning. They do this because they know that pundits like to follow the polling aggregates, and these junk right leaning polls drag the averages down for Biden and the Dems, and then that narrative works its way into mainstream media stories and commentary....which serves them for ratings and clicks because everything always seems super dramatic and competitive and they can continue to pretend like we still live in the era of two normal political parties, one center left, one center right who have an honest debate about the best way to govern the country.
So....here's what I keep in mind.....we had crappy polling heading into 2022 and WAY out performed what it indicated. In spite of the weak polling we continue to see for our side, we keep driving great turn out in special elections, odd year elections, and elections that take place at weird times of the year like Spring (which have generally been scheduled purposely by Republican lawmakers in order to give them a structural advantage in all those local governing bodies), and we've been consistently been winning them in red, blue, and purple states (Swept Lincoln, NE local elections, won Mayorship of Jacksonville, FL & Colorado Springs, CO, legislative special elections in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, & Virginia, and the State Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin, etc.)......so, I'm not sure I trust the polling as a predictor of elections. I believe it reflects how disgusted the public is with government and politics right now, which is exactly what Republicans have been trying to accomplish since at least Newt Gingrich in the mid 90s.......and it has worked, and they have a low opinion of both parties. And YET......clearly the last few elections are showing that they recognize that MAGA is a special breed of terrible, and even if they tell pollsters that they hate everybody, they show up on election day and vote against MAGA.
We've lived through a tremendous amount of collective trauma in the last 7 years....a man who has nakedly tried to divide America and pit Americans against one another won the presidency on a fluke technicality that we had to honor because we are honorable people even as he earned 3 million fewer votes than his opponent (and our side feels really sick about it because ultimately, we let that happen out of complacency), and then we had a once in a century experience with a pandemic that quarantined us, killed a million of us, changed life for the entire planet permanently in many ways, ripped our already polarized society apart like nothing since the Vietnam War, and then the bastard Divider in Chief attempted to stay in power after being voted out decisively by starting a blatant misinformation campaign about a fraudulent election, attempting to deploy a strategic legal coup at the state level, and incite a violent insurrection. People are pissed, they are sick of it, and to some extent just blame politicians writ large, and government in general for all of it......but elections keep showing us that they know who the worst apples are, and that's in spite of weak and discouraging polling. So....keep the faith....I don't think polls tell the same story they once did. And if you haven't read it already, check out the post I linked below that Simon posted a couple weeks ago to gain some broader perspective on polling and what's really happening. :-)
Yesterday on the Bulwark podcast they were also referring to polls that were concerning (Mona Charen and Will Saleten) I tried to figure out where and sample size but could not. Do we just not pay attention right now?
Just keep remembering that each poll is simply a snapshot of how things were on that date at that specific time. Everything is subject to ongoing change, so never take the info as an absolute for the future. Take the same poll, with the same people, a week later, and their opinions will be different. That poll is just how things were then. So rest easy.
If it's easier, think of each poll you read about as an actual photo from a vacation you were on, such as "Oh, in this photo we had just come back from ____ and ran into those people who were acting all weird. Remember? Thank goodness they weren't staying at our hotel." "Oh and remember in this photo that delicious meal we had?" Just a snapshot in time, and not a prediction of the future.
Ok.....I'll bite on the DeSantis photo.......what "invasion" is he talking about? I'm guessing a nonexistent invasion of illegal immigrants, but I don't keep up with every ridiculous crisis of the week that they cook up over in MAGA-Land, so it could be something else that I haven't heard about that also doesn't really exist, but that rural white men who didn't go to college are really scared about right now.
Can’t we say that Biden is a very good president? “Good” seems damning with faint praise. Strong on the economy, on defending our freedoms, and commitment to our allies and Ukraine. That is more than good!
I’m really looking forward to the youth vote discussion. I’ve been researching the different groups working on the youth vote, trying to find out if they have developed coalitions to enhance and focus their energies. Vote With Us is just one of those groups. It is an off shoot of March On ( post dt elections Womens March) Vote With Us is amazing to read about, especially about its work and impact in the Georgia and Arizona elections. The energies and passions of the members are kind of electrifying! Fun and inspiring to hear them speak. So this is me speaking ( or writing) Out Loud about the organized and impassioned work our youth are already doing to make the changes they want to see. This movement/river runs deeper and broader than I ever understood. Their fears, concerns, anger and resolve about the changes they want to see is like touching a a live wire. I am eager and interested to learn a lot more about these groups.
Wish I could remember (I read so many!) where the article was published this morning on poll numbers showing Donnie 3 pts over President Biden!!! Then there was all the talk yesterday about Dems being worried that Donnie can be elected again. I just don't get if it is true. It can't be because the country or an individual isn't better off then they were when Joe took over. We were damn near devistated after the Great Recession. We were on our road to recovery when Barack took over and slid back when Donnie took over. With Joe in office we have completely recovered and are a little ahead. Simon your opinion on those crazy polls. I truly do not believe them
I think his post from a couple weeks ago sums it up pretty good. Polling is expensive and hard these days due to low response rates and unpredictable voter models.....one of their biggest problems is that they don't know what the electorate will look like for the election and aren't doing as good of a job predicting it, which makes it hard to get an accurate sample size of each age, racial, ethnic, gender, educational, and economic status demographic to mirror who actually votes. Also, one of the new tricks Republicans have to screw with our elections (since they can't win majorities anymore without a major rethink of their policy platform and outdated values system) is to fund junk pollsters, and flood the zone with bullshit polls with poor methodology, small sample sizes, and lazy questioning. They do this because they know that pundits like to follow the polling aggregates, and these junk right leaning polls drag the averages down for Biden and the Dems, and then that narrative works its way into mainstream media stories and commentary....which serves them for ratings and clicks because everything always seems super dramatic and competitive and they can continue to pretend like we still live in the era of two normal political parties, one center left, one center right who have an honest debate about the best way to govern the country.
So....here's what I keep in mind.....we had crappy polling heading into 2022 and WAY out performed what it indicated. In spite of the weak polling we continue to see for our side, we keep driving great turn out in special elections, odd year elections, and elections that take place at weird times of the year like Spring (which have generally been scheduled purposely by Republican lawmakers in order to give them a structural advantage in all those local governing bodies), and we've been consistently been winning them in red, blue, and purple states (Swept Lincoln, NE local elections, won Mayorship of Jacksonville, FL & Colorado Springs, CO, legislative special elections in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, & Virginia, and the State Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin, etc.)......so, I'm not sure I trust the polling as a predictor of elections. I believe it reflects how disgusted the public is with government and politics right now, which is exactly what Republicans have been trying to accomplish since at least Newt Gingrich in the mid 90s.......and it has worked, and they have a low opinion of both parties. And YET......clearly the last few elections are showing that they recognize that MAGA is a special breed of terrible, and even if they tell pollsters that they hate everybody, they show up on election day and vote against MAGA.
We've lived through a tremendous amount of collective trauma in the last 7 years....a man who has nakedly tried to divide America and pit Americans against one another won the presidency on a fluke technicality that we had to honor because we are honorable people even as he earned 3 million fewer votes than his opponent (and our side feels really sick about it because ultimately, we let that happen out of complacency), and then we had a once in a century experience with a pandemic that quarantined us, killed a million of us, changed life for the entire planet permanently in many ways, ripped our already polarized society apart like nothing since the Vietnam War, and then the bastard Divider in Chief attempted to stay in power after being voted out decisively by starting a blatant misinformation campaign about a fraudulent election, attempting to deploy a strategic legal coup at the state level, and incite a violent insurrection. People are pissed, they are sick of it, and to some extent just blame politicians writ large, and government in general for all of it......but elections keep showing us that they know who the worst apples are, and that's in spite of weak and discouraging polling. So....keep the faith....I don't think polls tell the same story they once did. And if you haven't read it already, check out the post I linked below that Simon posted a couple weeks ago to gain some broader perspective on polling and what's really happening. :-)
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/its-time-for-a-big-rethink-on-how?r=27dgl6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
So true Steve! Trauma is what we are healing from.
Re-occurring PTSD?
Thank you Steve. Great insight. It gets complictaed doesn't it?
Yesterday on the Bulwark podcast they were also referring to polls that were concerning (Mona Charen and Will Saleten) I tried to figure out where and sample size but could not. Do we just not pay attention right now?
Just keep remembering that each poll is simply a snapshot of how things were on that date at that specific time. Everything is subject to ongoing change, so never take the info as an absolute for the future. Take the same poll, with the same people, a week later, and their opinions will be different. That poll is just how things were then. So rest easy.
If it's easier, think of each poll you read about as an actual photo from a vacation you were on, such as "Oh, in this photo we had just come back from ____ and ran into those people who were acting all weird. Remember? Thank goodness they weren't staying at our hotel." "Oh and remember in this photo that delicious meal we had?" Just a snapshot in time, and not a prediction of the future.
I personally remain convinced that post Dobbs will carry 2024
Ok.....I'll bite on the DeSantis photo.......what "invasion" is he talking about? I'm guessing a nonexistent invasion of illegal immigrants, but I don't keep up with every ridiculous crisis of the week that they cook up over in MAGA-Land, so it could be something else that I haven't heard about that also doesn't really exist, but that rural white men who didn't go to college are really scared about right now.
Love that clip of Blinken. So glad he is running international affairs during such a historic time.
Can’t we say that Biden is a very good president? “Good” seems damning with faint praise. Strong on the economy, on defending our freedoms, and commitment to our allies and Ukraine. That is more than good!
I’m really looking forward to the youth vote discussion. I’ve been researching the different groups working on the youth vote, trying to find out if they have developed coalitions to enhance and focus their energies. Vote With Us is just one of those groups. It is an off shoot of March On ( post dt elections Womens March) Vote With Us is amazing to read about, especially about its work and impact in the Georgia and Arizona elections. The energies and passions of the members are kind of electrifying! Fun and inspiring to hear them speak. So this is me speaking ( or writing) Out Loud about the organized and impassioned work our youth are already doing to make the changes they want to see. This movement/river runs deeper and broader than I ever understood. Their fears, concerns, anger and resolve about the changes they want to see is like touching a a live wire. I am eager and interested to learn a lot more about these groups.