When there is an over sampling of Rs and an under sampling of 18-34 year olds in the CNN polls, I would think you’re going to get these skewed results that favor trump.
Thank you, Simon. Feeling the same about much of our national media's abhorrent editorial judgment. Appreciate your continuing to call them out!
Just made my first contributions to the two Toms! Also want to highlight something Senator Raphael Warnock said at a "Winning North Carolina Starts With Mecklenburg County" event last week: "We win when we step up. If we lose, we lose by the margin of our disengagement." Rest assured, the Hopium family is committed to staying engaged and to winning those margins everywhere we can in support of freedom and democracy!
The treasonous appeasement of Putin makes my blood boil. Why is it not the biggest story of the day that the Republican Party has become a fifth column of the Russian Government?! I politely voiced my displeasure at my Senator but there isn’t much else I can do other than help win more elections. I am so god damn sick of MAGA and treason and terrorizing women and LGBT people. We have to demolish them at the ballot box and salt the political earth. Sorry for the rant.
Let's be clear about this: Republicans are now openly hostile to Ukraine and they are actively working for it to fail.
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) said Sunday that Ukraine should cede land to Russia and end the war. They can't win. In short: Give up!
Republicans are denying crucial support to our ally Ukraine. They are ignoring the fate of Europe and disregarding what Human Rights Watch has documented about Russia's atrocious treatment of civilians in Ukraine.
Biden's aid package also improves Israel's defensive capability at a time that it is under missile attack by Hezbollah. Biden also funds millions in humanitarian aid to Gaza--yet Republicans oppose it.
In all these things, Russia is the winner. The Russia that is menacing Ukraine and killing civilians. The Russia that is allied with Iran and Hezbollah--even as they fire into Israel and at US Navy ships in region.
Huge move: Republicans are abandoning Israel to support Russia.
There is no justification for blocking this aid bill--except that Republicans have taken up Putin's cause against our own.
Democrats have been worried about our coalition, but what about MAGA? The time that Republicans can be both pro-Israel (in their own weird idea of it anyway) and pro-Russia is swiftly ending.
I think we should follow the lead of Taylor Swift who says about songwriting: “Amateurs wait for inspiration, the rest of us just get up and go to work.”
I don’t know enough about the CNN poll to conclude that it’s “garbage”. It’s true that the numbers of young Michigan don’t align well with previous data. But Michigan has one of the largest Muslim/Arab American populations in the country and I imagine some of Biden’s unfavorability rating here is a result of the administration’s overt support of Israel.
I think it was warranted at the time but should probably be mitigated unless Netanyahu can provide assurances that the IDF has some strategy for “ending Hamas” without endangering the lives of hostages or “ending” the a sizable portion of the innocent Palestinians who are trapped in Gaza without access to food, water, fuel and first aid.
At any rate, the Biden administration has been doing a much better job of messaging and meeting with people from Jewish American and Muslim American communities. I also think that most people haven’t really concretized the idea that 2024 is going to be a rematch between Biden and Trump. I know it’s hard to believe for the rest of us who consume so much political news and realize how much is at stake here but most voters aren’t that plugged in. I have great confidence that when young Michiganders who might be troubled by Biden’s response to Israel realize that the alternative is a man whose first major act as President was to attempt to institute a “Muslim Ban”, they’ll come to their senses and do the right thing.
There are perhaps 100,000-120,000 registered Arab American voters in Michigan out of 8.2m registered voters. While we have to work to do here we cannot exaggerate the size of the electorate we are talking about, and certainly it is not big enough to account for more than a 1-2 point swing, and certainly not 20-25 points.
I haven’t looked at the cross tabs. You’re right about the percentage of course. But I thought the numbers you were citing were specifically among young people - which would be a fraction of that number. Also younger people on college campuses (whether Arab/Muslim American or not) tend to be more progressive in general and tend to have greater sympathy for Palestine than older Democrats. This was also true 20 years ago when I was in college.
One of my sons is in college and the other is a high school senior. There does definitely seem to be a little less enthusiasm for Biden currently than in the past. I think this is largely because he is perceived by young people as being a bit too moderate and not having done enough on issues like climate change and gun control. Sarah Longwell and Peter Hamby recently conducted a focus group specifically with younger voters that seems to bear this out. The good news however, is that despite all their concerns, when asked who they would vote for in a Trump vs Biden match up, every single young Democrat answered “Biden” without any hesitation. So I’m not particularly concerned. I was also quite impressed with their level of civic engagement - especially with local candidates and issues like abortion. This was not true when I was in college.
So I guess my takeaway is that the polls may be somewhat accurate in terms of gauging favorability but those numbers shouldn’t discourage people. Overall, they seem like poor indicators of actual voter intention or behavior.
You might have a point on the question of “favorability”....but this is a garbage poll in my view because it has young voters actually preferring Trump.....that’s complete nonsense, and doesn’t comport at all with what you’re astutely pointing out with a general disappointment in Biden but no intention of supporting Trump
There are also substantial numbers of Ukrainian-American voters in a number of US states, who may also shift, from R to D, as Republicans show open hostility to Ukraine.
I am working on my first batch of postcards for Tom Suozzi and sent both candidates contributions via ActBlue. I will also look into signing up for a couple of phone bank shifts (but probably not ones before Christmas).
With Special Elections especially turnout is KEY!!
Thanks for the pep talk, Simon. -- and for reminding us that it takes work to win. And work is where we should channel our energy. Interesting interview today on Here and Now with Ruth Ben-Ghiat, an expert on authoritarianism. She says that making the electorate despair and feel helpless is part of the playbook of an aspiring authoritarian. Being aware of that should help us to stay focused on the work before us. https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2023/12/11/trump-dictator-reelection
Some days are harder than others. But rule by these whack jobs is an image that should spur us all on. On the top of my deplorable list today is Paxton from Texas.
“The youth vote continues to play a major role in Democrats’ electoral success. A recent analysis found that Democrats maintain a 21-point advantage over Republicans with young voters. The GOP understands this problem well: As former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker admitted earlier this year on Fox News, “Young people are the problem,” and Republicans must “turn it around if [they] are going to win again.”
Thanks for recording this session (12/13). I have a Dem Party committee mtg at the same time and will rely on the recording on the 13th.
Never doubt that what you are doing for us is helpful.
At some point, please help us understand how the Biden approval rating for Israel vs Hamas policy is moving over time as the Palestinian mortality changes. We are locked in local debate and some of the claims against Biden and our delegation are hugely rhetorical. Reply when you can. I'll watch out for it.
Here are two opinion pieces that show the lengths Democrats still have to go to counteract the "see no evil, hear no evil" viewpoints of opinion leaders. You should be able to see this even without a subscription.
Trump as a Dictator is a classic case of Projection. WSJ 12-11-23 print edition
We need to take polls seriously but….at the same time we need to recognize that the right wing is gaming the system. They polluted the polling averages in 2022 and will do more in 2024 (as evidence by No Labels and more). It’s in their favor to create a “Biden can’t win” storyline to suppress enthusiasm, maximize worry and keep the focus away from Trump’s weaknesses. And, unfortunately, the media loves this narrative. We have to focus on our story and not accept it. As we can see from Simon’s success, staying positive is the antidote. It is tricky because we don’t want to ignore our challenges but we need to separate the media war from political realities. I don’t know about the rest of the community here, but I have way too many friends who are very read to go to the worst place and need constant reassurance. If Dems don’t take the bait, the media does not know what to do.
We now have 2 state run political shows. CNN, FOX. We cannot depend on MSM to do its job. Just look how little coverage Ukraine is getting now. If they did their job back in 2016, the orange toad would never have been in the WH. They're a business and their business is selling the news not by reporting but by creating stories and giving us their unsolicited opinions... We cannot depend on them or waste our time hoping they will do the right thing to save our democracy.
All hands on deck as we enter 2024. Will donate to the 2 campaigns mentioned.
Thanks for this TJ. I was finishing up my daily post and was able to sneak it in! Good stuff. Appreciate you sending it along. Best, S
I'm more convinced of it everyday - especially since they gave Trump that so called "town hall" which we as just a poorly disguised rally
This piece by Chris Hayes about the strong economy is worth watching. We need the media to do more of this. https://youtu.be/e1nZv9Lusnk
When there is an over sampling of Rs and an under sampling of 18-34 year olds in the CNN polls, I would think you’re going to get these skewed results that favor trump.
Oops oversampling of 18-34 year olds with MOE of 6.7 %. Still like to know how they would vote.
Thank you, Simon. Feeling the same about much of our national media's abhorrent editorial judgment. Appreciate your continuing to call them out!
Just made my first contributions to the two Toms! Also want to highlight something Senator Raphael Warnock said at a "Winning North Carolina Starts With Mecklenburg County" event last week: "We win when we step up. If we lose, we lose by the margin of our disengagement." Rest assured, the Hopium family is committed to staying engaged and to winning those margins everywhere we can in support of freedom and democracy!
The treasonous appeasement of Putin makes my blood boil. Why is it not the biggest story of the day that the Republican Party has become a fifth column of the Russian Government?! I politely voiced my displeasure at my Senator but there isn’t much else I can do other than help win more elections. I am so god damn sick of MAGA and treason and terrorizing women and LGBT people. We have to demolish them at the ballot box and salt the political earth. Sorry for the rant.
It's a good rant.
Agreed. I contacted my Senators as well.
Let's be clear about this: Republicans are now openly hostile to Ukraine and they are actively working for it to fail.
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) said Sunday that Ukraine should cede land to Russia and end the war. They can't win. In short: Give up!
Republicans are denying crucial support to our ally Ukraine. They are ignoring the fate of Europe and disregarding what Human Rights Watch has documented about Russia's atrocious treatment of civilians in Ukraine.
Biden's aid package also improves Israel's defensive capability at a time that it is under missile attack by Hezbollah. Biden also funds millions in humanitarian aid to Gaza--yet Republicans oppose it.
In all these things, Russia is the winner. The Russia that is menacing Ukraine and killing civilians. The Russia that is allied with Iran and Hezbollah--even as they fire into Israel and at US Navy ships in region.
Huge move: Republicans are abandoning Israel to support Russia.
There is no justification for blocking this aid bill--except that Republicans have taken up Putin's cause against our own.
Democrats have been worried about our coalition, but what about MAGA? The time that Republicans can be both pro-Israel (in their own weird idea of it anyway) and pro-Russia is swiftly ending.
RE: Polls.....
I think we should follow the lead of Taylor Swift who says about songwriting: “Amateurs wait for inspiration, the rest of us just get up and go to work.”
I don’t know enough about the CNN poll to conclude that it’s “garbage”. It’s true that the numbers of young Michigan don’t align well with previous data. But Michigan has one of the largest Muslim/Arab American populations in the country and I imagine some of Biden’s unfavorability rating here is a result of the administration’s overt support of Israel.
I think it was warranted at the time but should probably be mitigated unless Netanyahu can provide assurances that the IDF has some strategy for “ending Hamas” without endangering the lives of hostages or “ending” the a sizable portion of the innocent Palestinians who are trapped in Gaza without access to food, water, fuel and first aid.
At any rate, the Biden administration has been doing a much better job of messaging and meeting with people from Jewish American and Muslim American communities. I also think that most people haven’t really concretized the idea that 2024 is going to be a rematch between Biden and Trump. I know it’s hard to believe for the rest of us who consume so much political news and realize how much is at stake here but most voters aren’t that plugged in. I have great confidence that when young Michiganders who might be troubled by Biden’s response to Israel realize that the alternative is a man whose first major act as President was to attempt to institute a “Muslim Ban”, they’ll come to their senses and do the right thing.
There are perhaps 100,000-120,000 registered Arab American voters in Michigan out of 8.2m registered voters. While we have to work to do here we cannot exaggerate the size of the electorate we are talking about, and certainly it is not big enough to account for more than a 1-2 point swing, and certainly not 20-25 points.
I haven’t looked at the cross tabs. You’re right about the percentage of course. But I thought the numbers you were citing were specifically among young people - which would be a fraction of that number. Also younger people on college campuses (whether Arab/Muslim American or not) tend to be more progressive in general and tend to have greater sympathy for Palestine than older Democrats. This was also true 20 years ago when I was in college.
One of my sons is in college and the other is a high school senior. There does definitely seem to be a little less enthusiasm for Biden currently than in the past. I think this is largely because he is perceived by young people as being a bit too moderate and not having done enough on issues like climate change and gun control. Sarah Longwell and Peter Hamby recently conducted a focus group specifically with younger voters that seems to bear this out. The good news however, is that despite all their concerns, when asked who they would vote for in a Trump vs Biden match up, every single young Democrat answered “Biden” without any hesitation. So I’m not particularly concerned. I was also quite impressed with their level of civic engagement - especially with local candidates and issues like abortion. This was not true when I was in college.
So I guess my takeaway is that the polls may be somewhat accurate in terms of gauging favorability but those numbers shouldn’t discourage people. Overall, they seem like poor indicators of actual voter intention or behavior.
You might have a point on the question of “favorability”....but this is a garbage poll in my view because it has young voters actually preferring Trump.....that’s complete nonsense, and doesn’t comport at all with what you’re astutely pointing out with a general disappointment in Biden but no intention of supporting Trump
There are also substantial numbers of Ukrainian-American voters in a number of US states, who may also shift, from R to D, as Republicans show open hostility to Ukraine.
Activate America has postcarding addresses available for Tom Suozzi.
I am working on my first batch of postcards for Tom Suozzi and sent both candidates contributions via ActBlue. I will also look into signing up for a couple of phone bank shifts (but probably not ones before Christmas).
With Special Elections especially turnout is KEY!!
That’s the way Cheryl! Great example of staying on offense!
Likewise (minus the phonebanking...).
Thanks for the pep talk, Simon. -- and for reminding us that it takes work to win. And work is where we should channel our energy. Interesting interview today on Here and Now with Ruth Ben-Ghiat, an expert on authoritarianism. She says that making the electorate despair and feel helpless is part of the playbook of an aspiring authoritarian. Being aware of that should help us to stay focused on the work before us. https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2023/12/11/trump-dictator-reelection
Some days are harder than others. But rule by these whack jobs is an image that should spur us all on. On the top of my deplorable list today is Paxton from Texas.
💙Gen Z, Victor Shi ! Share 📣
“The youth vote continues to play a major role in Democrats’ electoral success. A recent analysis found that Democrats maintain a 21-point advantage over Republicans with young voters. The GOP understands this problem well: As former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker admitted earlier this year on Fox News, “Young people are the problem,” and Republicans must “turn it around if [they] are going to win again.”
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/republicans-youth-vote-2024-election-rcna128822
Thanks for recording this session (12/13). I have a Dem Party committee mtg at the same time and will rely on the recording on the 13th.
Never doubt that what you are doing for us is helpful.
At some point, please help us understand how the Biden approval rating for Israel vs Hamas policy is moving over time as the Palestinian mortality changes. We are locked in local debate and some of the claims against Biden and our delegation are hugely rhetorical. Reply when you can. I'll watch out for it.
Best
Paul
Wall Street Journal Opinion pieces this week
Simon,
Here are two opinion pieces that show the lengths Democrats still have to go to counteract the "see no evil, hear no evil" viewpoints of opinion leaders. You should be able to see this even without a subscription.
Trump as a Dictator is a classic case of Projection. WSJ 12-11-23 print edition
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-as-dictator-is-a-classic-case-of-projection-2024-election-biden-robert-kagan-a4bc86c7?st=9o762vkohq72z5k&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Definitely irony intended...------
Never Trumpers never learn WSJ 12-9-23 print edition
https://www.wsj.com/articles/never-trumpers-never-learn-russia-collusion-conspiracy-theory-2024-election-baf5d0a0?st=mvesjf1eoqsfuum&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Thanks for all you do.
We need to take polls seriously but….at the same time we need to recognize that the right wing is gaming the system. They polluted the polling averages in 2022 and will do more in 2024 (as evidence by No Labels and more). It’s in their favor to create a “Biden can’t win” storyline to suppress enthusiasm, maximize worry and keep the focus away from Trump’s weaknesses. And, unfortunately, the media loves this narrative. We have to focus on our story and not accept it. As we can see from Simon’s success, staying positive is the antidote. It is tricky because we don’t want to ignore our challenges but we need to separate the media war from political realities. I don’t know about the rest of the community here, but I have way too many friends who are very read to go to the worst place and need constant reassurance. If Dems don’t take the bait, the media does not know what to do.
We now have 2 state run political shows. CNN, FOX. We cannot depend on MSM to do its job. Just look how little coverage Ukraine is getting now. If they did their job back in 2016, the orange toad would never have been in the WH. They're a business and their business is selling the news not by reporting but by creating stories and giving us their unsolicited opinions... We cannot depend on them or waste our time hoping they will do the right thing to save our democracy.
All hands on deck as we enter 2024. Will donate to the 2 campaigns mentioned.