Trump's New War, Day 4 - We Are Learning Why Our Founders Gave Congress - Not The President - The Power To Commit Us To War

This morning, 10am EST - Stuart Stevens joins us live from Ukraine

Morning all. We have a strong schedule of live events this week to help our community stay on top of things. Get links, details on our Events page:

• Today, 10am EST - Stuart Stevens joins us live from Ukraine. Link here.

• Wed, 915am EST - I’ll be joining Jen Rubin and the Contrarians to discuss tonight’s election results, Trump’s new war, and more….

• Wed, 7pm EST - Weekly Paid Subscriber Get Together

• Thur, 230pm EST - Texas Dem Chair Kendall Scudder joins us to discuss tonight’s primary results and what comes next in battleground Texas

Tomorrow afternoon Governor Josh Shapiro is dropping by and we hope to have that discussion out to you late Wednesday. So yes - a busy week ahead!

Trump’s New War, Day 4 - Shambolic Shitshow

As I discussed with Rep. Adam Smith last night, and wrote about yesterday, it’s pretty clear now Trump just winged this war. They’ve struggled to articulate a strategy or objective these past few days for they can’t admit the real reason why America just launched a major war in the Middle East - because the big blubbery baby man wanted to. That’s it. That’s the reason. Yeah Bibi and MBS pushed him, perhaps Vance too, but our addled, ailing, Mad Leader made the call. He wanted a war and so now we have one. A big one.

He wanted the war because things are not going well for him here at home. His economic program has failed; the Epstein scandal has become an existential threat; the country has turned on ICE and Millerism; his poll numbers suck and Rs keep losing elections all over the country, even in red states and districts; the Supreme Court has now ruled against his deployment of the National Guard and his tariffs; lower courts keep delivering brutal blows to manic overreach, causing embarrassing retreats of all kinds; with his health declining it’s possible he knows he’s nearing his final lap and wants to make sure he leaves his mark; and he just likes feeling STRONG and MIGHTY, and his military is BIGGER and BADDER than everyone one else’s, and can do all these cool things. Yes, finally, after all these years, his is really BIG.

And so here we are, and it just isn’t clear that Trump is aware of what’s happening now, or ever understood what was likely to happen once he launched his new war. In interviews yesterday he repeatedly referred to the Maduro raid as a template. Really? Starting a regional war in the Middle East is like snatching a foreign leader of a nearby failed state who had been sold out by his own regime? In and out, easy peasy? That’s what he thought was going to happen?

In his CNN interview Trump said he was surprised that Iran was attacking countries in the region, and widening the war:

The US is now telling hundreds of thousands of Americans to leave a region where all the airports are closed. Embassies are being attacked and shuttered. Gulf Arab oil infrastructure is being destroyed. In a huge embarrassment for Trump regional leaders are now calling Zelenskyy and Ukraine for help in fighting the Russian-Iranian Shahed drones.

Did Trump really not know this was all not just possible, but likely?

The UK government is evacuating it’s people in the region. We are telling our people good luck!

Do we think he was also not aware, or did not understand, what was going to happen to inflation, our economy, the markets?

For here are the last two inflation reports we got prior to the war:

Um, inflation is rising again. And he imperiously created new tariffs after his were declared unconstitutional to keep inflation rising. Now oil prices are spiking, which is going to drive inflation even higher, further slow the economy, keep interest rates high, and in all likelihood drive the market down. Do we think Trump understood all this?

Here’s the NYT this morning:

A global market sell-off intensified on Tuesday, as Iran expanded its retaliatory attacks around the Persian Gulf region while American and Israeli officials signaled that strikes on Iran could continue for weeks. Stocks and bonds slipped and oil and gas prices surged. Investors sought havens like the dollar to protect their money from the uncertain and unpredictable effects of the fighting on the world economy.

“In a prolonged conflict, the combination of higher energy costs, disrupted logistics, and a generalized confidence shock would constitute a meaningful drag on global trade volumes at precisely the moment the world economy was still digesting the inflationary and growth consequences of the tariff shock,” noted analysts at ING, a bank. “The mother of all bad timings.”

Do we think Trump believed that the country would rally around his vainglorious new war, a war that he promised, dozens and dozens of times that he would never wage? Early polling has shown little support for the war, and a remarkable degree of opposition. Here’s CNN’s new poll - fully 59% opposed already, before any of the clear harms of the war have been felt by Americans:

Our ailing leader showed up at work yesterday with a worrying new wound that the White House has not yet explained:

And listen to this clip from yesterday. Does he sound all there?

There is now reporting that the White House is blaming JD Vance for pushing for war rather than limited strikes. Again, this suggests that Trump may not have been fully aware of what has happening and what the consequences would be if we went to war:

Whatever the answer is to all this we must acknowledge that the entire American experiment was created to prevent something like this from ever happening. Our Founders believed in the wisdom of crowds, not in the Divine Right of Kings. They knew that the power to make regional war like this, to commit our blood, treasure, and global reputation, could not be entrusted to one person. And so for hundreds of years no American leader ever went to war like this - for it is forbidden by our Constitution and law. Which is why Trump’s ongoing lawlessness, his trampling of the Constitution, his autocratic aspirations, are without question the greatest betrayal of America in our history. No leader has ever loved America less, or betrayed it more.

Which is why, my friends…..

We Need To Get To Work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $279,600 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and learn more about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

We will be meeting the rest of our newly expanded slate of intrepid House candidates in the coming weeks. It’s a great crew! This fundraising total includes funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we’re doing later this month.

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $389,600 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $40,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and learn more. Amazing start everyone!

Winning Ohio - $65,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does a great overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year. Note a generous donor has sent $21,000 worth of Hopium-infused contributions directly to the candidates which are not included in our on-line goal tracker.

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $135,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $81,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Study The Spangerberger And Padilla Speeches

Two more ways you can go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; and bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in both the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home.

I also strongly advise studying the speeches from Governor Spanberger and Senator Padilla this week. They charted a new, powerful rhetorical path forward for our movement, one that we can all use in our own work each day.

Keep working hard everyone. The momentum is with us, and we need to keep fighting as hard as we can - Simon