Nov 9, 2023·edited Nov 9, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg
Thanks Simon. The folks at Pod Save America echo most of these sentiments but keep saying that the 2024 electorate will look VERY different (their emphasis) from 2018, 2022, or 2023, and a lot of very uninformed voters are very cranky (and hard to reach). Is this just another way of saying part of our coalition is "wandering" or do they have a fundamentally different view of the data? To be clear, I'm not trying to make a conflict; I love the folks at PSA and they prescribe the same actions to win, but they seem a little more glass half empty about the data.
They could be right, and others are making this point. But my view is that 1) as voters are informed by the campaign next year we will win the fight with the Trump campaign over where we are 2) I go back to the history of the last 32 years - as the electorate expands, we win, not Rs 3) I dont think things are as bad as folks say they are, don't believe people are down and grumpy. As I keep saying playing all this forward I would much rather be us than them, period. But we have work to do, but it's far more likely we can sell Biden than they can rehabilitate Trump.
Siena poll - This should, I think, scare the sh*t outta you and me, etc.:
In 3-Way Race, Independent Robert Kennedy Jr. Garners 24% Across 6 Battleground States; Trump 35%, Biden 33%, Kennedy 24%; RFK Noses Ahead Among Voters Under 45
Yes but what set me off (I never send comments to anything) was the 24% factor and that RFK is taking votes from under 45s, a traditional Democratic area of strength. Also that those younger people (I'm 80) seem to be taken with his conspiracy theories, etc. My son (51 years old) said that all we had to do was to wait for the first debate and RFK's performance would blow up any chance he had to be anything. That's kind of what I felt about Trump in 2016. The fact that people only hear news and information from the sources that give them what they want to hear reinforces their opinions, regardless of how misguided or wrong they may be. Anyway, the recent elections give me hope that there are enough people that see what's going on clearly enough to give the Dems a better than 50/50 chance to beat the Orange Baboon. Not sure where I first saw you but I thought you had it all right and so I subscribed.
Instead, let's focus on what matters, specifically what we can do between now and the 2024 election that helps elect Joe Biden with a resounding 55 pts across the battleground states.
Time to let go of what doesn't matter—i.e., the media's obsession with horserace politics, where they focus on the "odds" not the "stakes" when it comes to our elections and default to their conflict-driven, binary narratives to push false equivalences, normalizing MAGA's fascism and their support and endorsement of a two-time popular vote-losing, twice impeached, four-time criminally indicted grifting traitor that conspired and inspired to overturn our votes in free and fair election, via (ongoing) lies and a violent and deadly attack on our freedoms.
Where's the story (and click bait) if it's clear from every election since 2018 that the Dems will win, again (assuming we continue to do the ground work needed)?
There are two things that the last 6 years have taught me:
1) the Democratic family and the American people writ large have woken up and realized something is wrong and have remained diligent in cleaning up the mess one election at a time, and we’re only becoming more clear eyed about the problem and more able and efficient at executing the solution with time
2) if everyone is certain Joe Biden is fucked and beyond the point of recovery, he’s on the verge of over performing, over delivering, completely defying all expectations
Great work my friends....let’s have a great holiday season and come back ready to crush it in 24!
Yes, yes, and YES!! Great post Simon! But let's not just focus on the national elections. I'm in Ohio, and to me, if we don't flip our state from the fascist paws of these cretins, we will be in bad shape no matter what happens in DC. Just look at what they want to do now. We The People voted for personal choice, with Issues 1 and 2 here, and immediately, the fascists announced they are going to be working overtime to circumvent the will of the people. It never ends with these assholes, until we vote them ALL out; local, state, and federal. We have a lot of work to do. But today, the sun is shining, I got most of the leaves picked-up, and the future is looking pretty darned good!!
Great article this am. Yes, let’s enjoy the wins, enjoy the holiday then get back to work to defeat every GOP, in every location, for every office, in every election. I’m in!
I watched the debate last night....I kept hearing the lament about the Repubs being a party of losers...i just want to continue that streak...Thanks Simon for your continuous pep talks..Every one have a happy and healthy holiday season...Best of everything to everyone and their loved ones....
Thank you Simon for inviting us to all be part of such a purposeful community. I’m amazed daily how much I’ve learned from you and all our other members in such a brief amount of time. It feels like I’ve attended a Masters Class in Civics.
And today I’m just reveling in the wonderful feelings of SUCCESS for all those peeps in Ohio and Virginia and Kentucky and every position won last night that takes us a step closer to saving our democracy. And I actually got a bit teary eyed hearing about the rising of locals to basically lock out extremists from their school boards. Democratic locals refusing to allow their libraries and books to be controlled by extremism. Hallelujah.
Lots of work ahead; agree. But today it’s celebration time everyone: we did it! 💃
I agree this is a great post. And the meeting with Sam was incredible. To think that this little mighty group has connections to the highest party levels and they listen to you Simon! That you and them together beat the media bushes to say ‘Stop drinking the red R Kool-aid’ and occasionally you get them to listen! Like Biden, you built this ‘from the bottom up and the middle out’ Simon. I put myself at the bottom, one of MANY that stretches when I can, my mind, time, or wallet to make a tiny difference. Then those in the middle are all the orgs that so many here run, work, Volunteer or contribute too that make bigger differences. At the top is Biden campaign, DNC, and our not secret weapon, Taylor Swift!
So impressive to watch this vision take shape. When the campaign kicks in...... 55 WILL be in reach! Proud to be here with all of you.
Here is MTN explaining how the Swifties are organizing
Yup....and I guess we gotta take some advice from Taylor when the haters in the media hate hate hate hate hate, and the crooked republicans play play play play play, we just gotta shake shake shake shake shake, shake it off and do the work 😁😉
One more for the win column: Democrats appear to have turned out the incumbent MAGA Mayor in Spokane, the largest city in conservative eastern Washington. Lisa Brown leads 52-48%, though mail-in ballots can still come in.
Don't simply take Simon's word for it alone. At the GOP debate last night, MAGA Presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said the same:
"We have become a party of losers. We've lost 2017, 2022, no red wave. We got trounced last night in 2023."
Yes, I'd abso-frickin'-lutely rather be us, than them. Especially as he left off 2018 and 2020, too.
This might be my favorite Hopium article so far.
I’ll second that Jim👏
Hook that hopium to my veins!
Rest , yes. ☺️
Then , roll up DEM sleeves and let the truth be HEADLINES .
WE. HAVE.
WE. WILL.
DO. IT. 55+
Thanks Simon. The folks at Pod Save America echo most of these sentiments but keep saying that the 2024 electorate will look VERY different (their emphasis) from 2018, 2022, or 2023, and a lot of very uninformed voters are very cranky (and hard to reach). Is this just another way of saying part of our coalition is "wandering" or do they have a fundamentally different view of the data? To be clear, I'm not trying to make a conflict; I love the folks at PSA and they prescribe the same actions to win, but they seem a little more glass half empty about the data.
They could be right, and others are making this point. But my view is that 1) as voters are informed by the campaign next year we will win the fight with the Trump campaign over where we are 2) I go back to the history of the last 32 years - as the electorate expands, we win, not Rs 3) I dont think things are as bad as folks say they are, don't believe people are down and grumpy. As I keep saying playing all this forward I would much rather be us than them, period. But we have work to do, but it's far more likely we can sell Biden than they can rehabilitate Trump.
Thanks for the explanation. There are many ways that smart people can interpret the data. But it doesn't change what we have to do to win.
Siena poll - This should, I think, scare the sh*t outta you and me, etc.:
In 3-Way Race, Independent Robert Kennedy Jr. Garners 24% Across 6 Battleground States; Trump 35%, Biden 33%, Kennedy 24%; RFK Noses Ahead Among Voters Under 45
you realize that Kennedy is taking more from Trump here than Biden, right?
Yes but what set me off (I never send comments to anything) was the 24% factor and that RFK is taking votes from under 45s, a traditional Democratic area of strength. Also that those younger people (I'm 80) seem to be taken with his conspiracy theories, etc. My son (51 years old) said that all we had to do was to wait for the first debate and RFK's performance would blow up any chance he had to be anything. That's kind of what I felt about Trump in 2016. The fact that people only hear news and information from the sources that give them what they want to hear reinforces their opinions, regardless of how misguided or wrong they may be. Anyway, the recent elections give me hope that there are enough people that see what's going on clearly enough to give the Dems a better than 50/50 chance to beat the Orange Baboon. Not sure where I first saw you but I thought you had it all right and so I subscribed.
You realize polls are
1) only opinions
2) only opinions a year from the actual event being asked about—a year when so much will change and
3) based on the opinions of the poll makers? See here for what I mean: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/20/upshot/the-error-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html
Let's inoculate ourselves against "mad poll" disease — here's a good prescription for doing so: https://www.weekendreading.net/p/a-cure-for-mad-poll-disease
Instead, let's focus on what matters, specifically what we can do between now and the 2024 election that helps elect Joe Biden with a resounding 55 pts across the battleground states.
Time to let go of what doesn't matter—i.e., the media's obsession with horserace politics, where they focus on the "odds" not the "stakes" when it comes to our elections and default to their conflict-driven, binary narratives to push false equivalences, normalizing MAGA's fascism and their support and endorsement of a two-time popular vote-losing, twice impeached, four-time criminally indicted grifting traitor that conspired and inspired to overturn our votes in free and fair election, via (ongoing) lies and a violent and deadly attack on our freedoms.
Where's the story (and click bait) if it's clear from every election since 2018 that the Dems will win, again (assuming we continue to do the ground work needed)?
This author makes the point quite elegantly: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/09/trump-president-democracy-threat-media-journalism
There are two things that the last 6 years have taught me:
1) the Democratic family and the American people writ large have woken up and realized something is wrong and have remained diligent in cleaning up the mess one election at a time, and we’re only becoming more clear eyed about the problem and more able and efficient at executing the solution with time
2) if everyone is certain Joe Biden is fucked and beyond the point of recovery, he’s on the verge of over performing, over delivering, completely defying all expectations
Great work my friends....let’s have a great holiday season and come back ready to crush it in 24!
Yes, yes, and YES!! Great post Simon! But let's not just focus on the national elections. I'm in Ohio, and to me, if we don't flip our state from the fascist paws of these cretins, we will be in bad shape no matter what happens in DC. Just look at what they want to do now. We The People voted for personal choice, with Issues 1 and 2 here, and immediately, the fascists announced they are going to be working overtime to circumvent the will of the people. It never ends with these assholes, until we vote them ALL out; local, state, and federal. We have a lot of work to do. But today, the sun is shining, I got most of the leaves picked-up, and the future is looking pretty darned good!!
Thank you Simon. 👍
Great article this am. Yes, let’s enjoy the wins, enjoy the holiday then get back to work to defeat every GOP, in every location, for every office, in every election. I’m in!
I watched the debate last night....I kept hearing the lament about the Repubs being a party of losers...i just want to continue that streak...Thanks Simon for your continuous pep talks..Every one have a happy and healthy holiday season...Best of everything to everyone and their loved ones....
Going to be mainlining that Hopium all through this three-day weekend 😀
Thank you for the uplifting post! I have hope that you are right!!
Thank you Simon for inviting us to all be part of such a purposeful community. I’m amazed daily how much I’ve learned from you and all our other members in such a brief amount of time. It feels like I’ve attended a Masters Class in Civics.
And today I’m just reveling in the wonderful feelings of SUCCESS for all those peeps in Ohio and Virginia and Kentucky and every position won last night that takes us a step closer to saving our democracy. And I actually got a bit teary eyed hearing about the rising of locals to basically lock out extremists from their school boards. Democratic locals refusing to allow their libraries and books to be controlled by extremism. Hallelujah.
Lots of work ahead; agree. But today it’s celebration time everyone: we did it! 💃
Amen Irene! Hallelujah!!!
I agree this is a great post. And the meeting with Sam was incredible. To think that this little mighty group has connections to the highest party levels and they listen to you Simon! That you and them together beat the media bushes to say ‘Stop drinking the red R Kool-aid’ and occasionally you get them to listen! Like Biden, you built this ‘from the bottom up and the middle out’ Simon. I put myself at the bottom, one of MANY that stretches when I can, my mind, time, or wallet to make a tiny difference. Then those in the middle are all the orgs that so many here run, work, Volunteer or contribute too that make bigger differences. At the top is Biden campaign, DNC, and our not secret weapon, Taylor Swift!
So impressive to watch this vision take shape. When the campaign kicks in...... 55 WILL be in reach! Proud to be here with all of you.
Here is MTN explaining how the Swifties are organizing
https://www.meidastouch.com/news/swifties-vow-to-save-democracy-after-maga-attacks
Love this.
You deserve it Simon! So GREAT reading your posts on MTN. So much more exposure for you/HC is awesome going into 2024. Great work!
Yup....and I guess we gotta take some advice from Taylor when the haters in the media hate hate hate hate hate, and the crooked republicans play play play play play, we just gotta shake shake shake shake shake, shake it off and do the work 😁😉
Yazzzzzzzzz! Now the song is in my head! You are great Steve!
One more for the win column: Democrats appear to have turned out the incumbent MAGA Mayor in Spokane, the largest city in conservative eastern Washington. Lisa Brown leads 52-48%, though mail-in ballots can still come in.
Did that conservative sheriff in Washington lose? I haven’t heard one way or another
Latest report shows him losing.