3 What's Next Events This Week, Trump Drops 4 Points In 1st Post-Big Ugly Poll, Trump's "Polluted Heart"

Health Care Expert Charles Gaba Joins Us At 115pm ET Today To Talk Medicaid, ACA and More......

Morning all. What comes next after the passage of the big ugly? Got four events now on the books this week to discuss:

• Today, 115pm ET - Health care policy expert Charles Gaba returns to Hopium to talk about what happens now with Medicaid, the ACA and our health care system more broadly. He will be discussing a new analysis he’s just released that details all the ways the big ugly cuts health care spending before the mid-term elections, including what is going to be a big deal - the ending of certain ACA subsidies that will effect at least 25m people at the end of this year. Join this event by clicking here at 115pm this afternoon.

• Tomorrow, 1230pm ET - Our good friend Tara McGowan returns to Hopium to do a check in on our information battles six months into Trump 2.0 and the promising growth of pro-democracy media in recent years, including her own COURIER Newsroom. I always learn when I talk to Tara and promise you will too. Join this event by clicking here at 1230pm tomorrow.

• Tomorrow, 7pm ET - Our regular Hopium paid subscriber get together. Register here.

• Friday, 215pm ET - Immigration attorney and influential commentator David Leopold returns to Hopium to discuss the current state of the various immigration and deportation legal cases and what can we expert now with ICE being showered with money and support. Join this event by clicking here at 215pm on Friday.

All four of these events will be recorded and shared here for those who can’t make them live. If you haven’t gotten to them yet be sure to review my first two “what’s next” essays here and here, and check out my new discussion with Greg Sargent for his terrific daily pod for the New Republic.

We got our first post-big ugly poll from Morning Consult last night. While this poll has been one of the better polls for Trump note their headline this week - “Trump’s approval ratings dip as OBBB becomes law.”

• Trump last week 47%-50% (-3)

• Trump today 45%-52% (-7)

A four point drop since last week. Roh-roh! Their summary:

Trump’s approval bump fades: Trump’s approval ratings ticked back down as he signed the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law over the long weekend, erasing his popularity gains that followed U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities last month. Our latest survey shows 45% of voters approve of his job performance, down 2 percentage points from last week, and 52% disapprove, a 2-point increase over that time frame. His net approval rating is just shy of a record low we measured two weeks ago and in late April.

We will see where the rest of the polling comes in this week but this is not the poll or headline the White House wanted to start off the week, particularly from a poll that has been more favorable to Trump than most independent polls.

As I go to press this am the Economist/YouGov weekly track was just released. It has Trump 42%-53% with adults, no change from last week, but down 3 with registered voters, going from 45%-53% to 43%-54%. So no big ugly bounce so far in either poll, something that was always likely given how unpopular the bill is. In fact each poll has picked up downward movement this week.

Trump did not a get a bounce from his immigration escalation; did not a good bounce from his birthday parade; did not get a bounce in most polls from his bombing of Iran; and so far appears to have not gotten a bounce from the passage of the big ugly.

WTF Is Trump Going To Do These Next 16 Months? - Yesterday I wrote about a big challenge our country now has - what is Trump going to do with himself every day now that the 100 day shock and awe and big ugly has come and gone? Trump needs spectacle and bread and circuses to distract from his agenda of sabotage, plunder and betrayal; and to feed his desperate and pathetic need to be driving our daily discourse and be the center of attention. We all should be worried that the process of him needing to daily wag the dog could become dangerous for us and the world.

Yesterday we got a glimpse of this new challenge we face. There was an unprecedented - and ridiculous - National Guard show of force in downtown Los Angeles yesterday that included the display of a mounted machine gun and of course men in full combat dress.

Here’s video of them sweeping an empty kids soccer field in MacArthur Park:

As if that wasn’t enough, yesterday Trump once again began terrorizing the world with his wild tariff threats. Paul Krugman has a good write up of what happened yesterday (which could completely change today), but read this letter the President of the United States sent to South Korea yesterday. It’s full on bat-shit crazy:

Krugman writes:

Notice that Trump offered no specifics — because there aren’t any. How were the South Koreans supposed to end unfair trade practices that exist only in Trump’s imagination?

Here’s an analogy that occurred to me: Imagine that you have a belligerent neighbor who threatens to take revenge unless you stop dumping trash on his lawn. You reply, truthfully, that you aren’t dumping trash on his lawn. His response is to accuse you of being intransigent and slash your car’s tires.

The only possible out here would be a series of fake deals, in which countries pretend to have offered significant concessions and Trump claims to have won big victories. Some people still think that will happen — the new tariffs aren’t supposed to take effect until Aug. 1. But the tone of those letters and Trump’s clear obsession with tariffs make me doubt that he’ll call the tariffs off, in part because of my last observation: Attempts to mollify Trump always end up emboldening him to demand more.

It is likely that Trump will be emboldened now. In his mind the Iran bombing was a big success and showed the world THE POWER he holds; he is popular and loved BY THE PEOPLE; he has deployed THE MARINES to America’s streets; his passage of the big ugly makes him STRONG and a WINNER; and thus countries and the American people should SUBMIT TO HIS POWER, and bend the knee. But as we’ve discussed here the leaders of the world see him as a clown and a fool and aren’t bending the knee; we are not submitting but protesting, fighting, winning in court again and again; he is not popular and successful, but unpopular and failing. This tension between his imagined Presidency and the real one those outside the MAGA bubble are experiencing is growing; and those in positions of leadership need to be aggressive about pointing our what is happening now as we enter what could be a new and more dangerous phase - the idle hands are the devil’s workshop phase - of Trump’s second term.

Governor Newsom did a very good job at this yesterday, using a powerful phrase, “Trump’s polluted heart.” Watch:

Emboldened, diminished, mad……look at Trump’s insane burnt orange color last night in his globally televised meeting with Bibi. Clown, or US President? For us, unfortunately, it’s both.

To end on a more upbeat note, enjoy this new video from the Mamdani campaign. Whatever you think of this new player on the scene I think we can all agree that he has become a pioneer in his use of media, and that we all can learn from him and his able team:

Now, Let’s Get To Work

Support Hopium’s Priority Candidates - Friends, you all rallied these last few days. We hit our $25,000 June 30th goal for our newly endorsed candidates Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Senator Jon Ossoff - thank you! Our revised fundraising goals are for Labor Day, remarkably, only two months away, with the November elections now only four months away. We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $200,000 goal, $33k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch Our Interview

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $150k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch Our Interview

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $200,000 goal, $31k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer

• Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $156k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer, Watch Our Interviews

We also have ongoing campaigns to support the new DNC, the Anderson Clayton and the North Carolina Democratic Party and to thank Senator Cory Booker for his spirited leadership in a time of enormous challenge. Lots of choices - do something to support these great candidates and parties today!

I am grateful to all of you who fought so hard against the Trump’s terrible bill. We worked hard peeps. It was righteous and good work. As I said to you in my latest video we need to learn from these last few months and continue to get better, stronger, more powerful. For while we are making progress we are clearly not where we need to be.

In the coming days as I reflect on what just happened, and listen to all of you, we will be reworking and updating our collective summer and fall actions. Here is what we have now, with more to come, soon:

1 - Get The Military Off Our Streets, Fight Trump’s Inhumane Immigration Escalation - Contact your Rep and Senators to demand they fight Trump’s illegal use of the National Guard and Marines in California. Encourage Democrats at all levels of government to a stand with Governor Newsom and the California - for Trump is not just attacking California, he is attacking the rights and freedoms of all of us. See my recent interviews with Joe Garcia, Leon Krauze and Senator Chris Van Hollen for more.

In the coming days I want to work with all of you to do something more explicit about demanding the end of masked, plain clothes “police” snatching people here in America without warrants.

2 - Join Our Resolutions Project - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders, learn about how Hopium members are advancing “resolutions of condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Our resolutions passed in two New Mexico counties last week, and we now have 40 resolutions moving in 14 states. Amazing stuff!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

3 -Volunteer To Help Your State and/or Local Democratic Parties Stand Up Voter Registration Efforts - In the presentation he made to our community recently Tom Bonier made a persuasive case that Democrats must once again make partisan voter registration a national priority. State and local Democratic Parties are in the planning stages to take this on. Members of our community should consider contacting their state and local parties and offer to help stand up these vital efforts in the coming months.

For more on the need to make partisan voter registration great again see my recent interview with Jane Kleeb, Nebraska Democratic Party Chair, DNC Vice Chair and President of the Association of Democratic State Committees.

Last Monday the DNC, the DSCC, the DCCC, the DGA and the ASDC announced a major new “Organizing Summer” project. Learn more about it here. I hope to have someone join us in the coming days to help us understand how we can support this exciting new initiative. Organizing to win these 29 Republican held House districts will be one of most important collective priorities for the next 16 months:

4 - Stand Up For Science - Sign on to the critically important Bethesda Declaration and watch my interview with Stand Up For Science’s Executive Director Colette Delawalla. Signing on to the Declaration is one concrete way you can take action today. Another is to back over 700 employees of the EPA who have taken a courageous stand challenging EPA Administration Lee Zeldin this week. You can learn more and sign your name in support of this remarkable effort here.

Please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Grow Hopium - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 152,000 we are now to 175,000 by Labor Day. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. If each current paid subscriber brings in just one new subscriber this summer we will hit our goal.

To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day. Use that link to buy gift or group subscriptions, and join our new referral rewards program too.

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you, and a fight it surely is - Simon