I am pulling this post down for 1) it contains false information and 2) calls for violence. I have suspend your posting privileges for a month. If you return please do better.
KEY QUESTIONS for Charles Gaba. Is it correct that the most heinous cuts to Medicaid, the ACA and SNAP in Trump’s Big Ugly Bill are scheduled to first go into effect *after* the 2026 Midterm Elections? If so, is this being done to prevent Democrats from effectively exploiting these issues in the Midterms? How can Democrats nonetheless campaign well on this, if Americans are not yet feeling the pain?
Also: Are we reaching the point where we can no longer rely on accurate data from government agencies? Charles, if so, how does this impact your own work?
Our discussion today will make clear that while some of the biggest cuts to Medicaid come after 2026 there is a lot of bad stuff that is happening this year and next that will be felt by people and that we can use to make our case. See his new analysis I link to. This meme in the family is that it is all coming after 2026 is wrong, and we will attempt to challenge it today.
There's already news coverage about the cuts where I live (excerpts from the article below):
"Already in a tight financial situation, Vista Medical Center East in Waukegan is studying the impact cuts to Medicaid in the “big beautiful bill” President Donald Trump signed into law Friday, reducing both taxes and government spending.
A significant percentage of Vista’s patients are on Medicaid, underinsured, or uninsured, forcing a reliance on Medicaid payments to fund the care those patients receive. Nationwide, healthcare funding for millions of people will be cut by $1 trillion over the next 10 years.
Vista officials have said over the past two years that patients will not be turned away because of a lack of ability to pay. Vista CEO Kim Needham said Monday she and her staff are working to determine the precise effects of the legislation.
“We don’t know the impact yet, but Medicaid is used by thousands of patients in Lake County,” Needham said. “We’re nervous about the Medicaid cuts. We know we will have to make some changes when we find out more...Meanwhile, Needham said she and her staff are looking at possible remedies when the anticipated Medicaid cuts hit. Potential changes may result in reducing personnel, or eliminating some service lines, like offering vaccinations or outpatient tests a doctor may prescribe.
“We know we will have to make some decisions when it comes due,” Needham said. “Some hospitals may have to close their doors. We hope it is not us, but we will have to look at everything closely. We know we have an important place in the community.”
Another consequence will be the creation of barriers that underinsured and uninsured people will face, making them less likely to seek medical care and exacerbate treatable health conditions. I noticed in the article how hospital staff kept emphasizing that there will still be services- probably trying to prevent people from dropping off of their regular appointments.
Agree we MUST control the narrative now. I know many people who prospered under the “Biden economy” - fully employed, good wages - but thought the economy was terrible because of the nonstop drumbeat of the right wing propaganda machine.
And don’t forget the “death panels,” which aren’t even a thing.
I'd say that meme was very successfully challenged in the discussion today with Charles Gaba. The ACA cuts to premium subsidies, for example are going to hit hard, and soon. I appreciated the emphasis on focusing on impacts to the healthcare system as a whole, and not just to Medicaid cuts. Such as measles in schools when the school year starts.
I second that question about unreliable data from our federal agencies. It's becoming an issue across all the agencies, and it will be good to hear his thoughts.
I would appreciate your analysis of what happened that the Bill passed, what we can do to stop parts, if any, of it from being law, what is a 2-3 month plan for us to get behind, who are the possible leaders in the Democratic party, and who is the strongest, etc. I seek guidance, as I am still stunned that the Bill passed and feel dismayed by the results of our steady and strong opposition efforts over the past 5+ months.
As Democrats we are weak, ineffective, have no leader who could seize on some critical openings that the Republicans created, etc. We need to revamp our party for a new start. We currently have too much baggage that weighs us down, and we do not seem capable of shedding it and emerging renewed, jazzed, and full of lasting vigor. Many thanks!
Lynn, 2 points 1) as for guidance on how to proceed and what to do that is what we discuss here literally every day and I offer a variety of ways for you to engage, do 2) your assessment of the Democratic Party is in my view inaccurate. Trump is unpopular today, significantly so; we were successful in driving down the standing of the big ugly and helped make it the most unpopular piece of legislation in modern history; we have been winning and overperforming in special and off year elections; we lead in the generic ballot, suggesting that if we the election were held today we would have a very good election. There is no question we have a lot to do but this woah is me view of the Dem Party is neither accurate or helpful in my view.
i am liking mamdani. he seems to be from the AOC school of politics. acting like a winner! authentic! thx to mayor bass for confronting the military show yesterday in macarthur park. good job & newsom too!!
WE’RE FIGHTING AGAINST efforts to establish a POLICE STATE
In addition to Simon’s Hopium with comments from our great community, my daily read includes Heather Cox Richardson’s "Letters From an American". In a powerful way, she puts current events into a historical context.
Heather’s latest blog entry is particularly telling. She refers to a Talking Points Memo from Harvard sociologist Theda Skocpol. Here is an excerpt from Heather:
"…it appears that officials in the Trump administration are using immigration as a way to establish a police state. Indeed, they are using the concept that presidents have control of foreign affairs as a way to work around the laws in place to prevent a dictatorship."
Yes, HCR is discussing the police state that we now exist in. What right do any of us have anymore, if we can get caught up in an “ICE raid” or whatever this Gestapo consists of? We can be rounded up and disappeared just like anyone else anymore and what rights or recourse do any of us have if we can’t access a lawyer and our family doesn’t know where we are? This is real, and it is extremely disturbing.
I don’t think we are quite there yet. With good, meaningful Hopium resistance I believe we can stop these efforts, or at least make them incomplete and far less effective.
Hope you are correct. Sorry to not be on the positive side at the moment because all I see is this ramping up exponentially, especially with the huge amount of money provided for this by the Reconciliation Bill. I don’t see the effective pushback happening yet and I don’t know what the levers are, apart from a General Strike. As someone who has written hundreds of postcards, made calls nearly everyday to my Reps, protested in both big events, I am not just sitting around prophesying doom. If you or anybody me can tell me how we stop this Police State and restore our rights such that masked men can’t grab us off a street or school or place of work, I’m all ears.
I just called my AZ rep Greg Stanton's office and my two senators Kelly and Gallego to express my concern about having the military and National Guard roving the streets of American cities. I plan on attending my city council's meeting tonight regarding Mesa's contract with ICE. I have deep concerns after seeing what went down in LA yesterday. This is all to traumatize people.
Today, I used my 5calls.org to call all my Congressional representatives (Federal & State) to get them to enact legislation forcing the individuals in our streets who are abducting (kidnapping) people to IDENTIFY & UNMASK themselves. Who knows who these thugs are? Hopefully, more & more resistance will prevail to reverse these illegal kidnappings happening on our streets.
It makes sense to focus on the elections that will occur in 2025 first. Obtaining a trifecta in VA should be a top priority. It would also be nice to get to supermajority in NJ. But, yeah, you have to focus on what's directly in front of you.
Hard to understand what you are doing here in this exchange for you clearly did not make any attempt to find what you are looking for. Please do better. Again we all have limited time in our day and you need to respectful of that here, please and thank you - Simon
First, it's one even a kid could make from a simplistic model by including all of the key Midwestern battleground states. It's that basic, with all due respect.
Two, the map leaves out huge swaths of the country that the party has seen a massive erosion of support in where we once were a major force, whether it's Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia. So what are we doing in those places; giving up? That means we aren't making a dent in the 1,000+ state legislative seats we lost in 2010 and 2014, so that preserves a GOP advantage instead of eating into it further. Shouldn't it be a key goal to be a real national party again?
Three, it does not show any reporting or provide any specifics over how DLCC fundraising has been since November, how its grassroots presence has been since November, and other issues like how it is approaching the redistricting challenges in Ohio and Texas.
Simon, an acquaintance was in the process of negotiating a half-billion $ deal with utilities in a European country, and the whole thing almost got derailed because Trump heard about it, and wanted to claim that the deal was one of his ‘90 deals in 90 days’ tariff package. My acquaintance’s comment: ‘we got a laugh, but had to insert a TDF (Trump Disruption Factor) clause into the agreement.’ His other comment: everything Trump tells you about his tariff deals are lies. I know you’re shocked, SHOCKED, to hear this.
There is so much news now that the destruction wrought by these tariffs does not appear to be breaking through. I saw a clip of an Arkansas farmer (possibly a Trump voter) saying if something doesn’t change by the end of the year many farms will fold. And on social media I saw a lengthy thread from a wine importer in NYC talking about how his business is being ruined by the tariffs.
It doesn’t break through because Trump et al lie about it (“it’s Joe Biden’s and the Democrat’s fault”), and they believe him and get angrier at … nothing.
Simon I can't remember if I commented on Hopium or Hubbell about this - but here goes again. What can we do to help the DEMS come up with a unified, often repeated approach: Have town meetings repeatedly in republican districts with a clear, brief outline: Listing each point - without lofty rhetoric !!!! with video clips 'in their own words' ----- so that the participants are confronted often with the reality --- It's not US saying this --- it's these corrupt politicians - IN THEIR OWN words saying it. Add in some videos of ICE - masked and anonymous - Giving a brief statistic: This is how much immigrants pay in taxes: this is what they do - hospitality industry, health care; agriculture ---- not great detail - just the facts. They have to repeat the SAME message every day. Have press conferences --- we know from the criminal that if you repeat something enough times - people get to believe it --- IT IS OUR TURN TO DO THAT. ----- but - unless I"m missing something - they are not doing that.
Derek as you may be aware this community helped sell the idea of the townhalls in red areas that were used to great effect to help define the big ugly, successful. Those tactics will continue and as I wrote today the DNC and allies are expanding that into an organizing summer. Second, we do not all have to say the same thing, every day. We can make multiple points over time on the issues that matter. I think this idea that everyone has to say the same thing every day is wrong; people to need to speak passionately and effectively about what matters to them; and we need to make arguments over time not merely message.
Hi All - the Mamdani video made me smile wide. That's the kind of joy we need in our politics now and always. Reminded me of Kamala's interactions with people on the campaign trail. Keep up the great work - you all are my inspiration!
I am pulling this post down for 1) it contains false information and 2) calls for violence. I have suspend your posting privileges for a month. If you return please do better.
KEY QUESTIONS for Charles Gaba. Is it correct that the most heinous cuts to Medicaid, the ACA and SNAP in Trump’s Big Ugly Bill are scheduled to first go into effect *after* the 2026 Midterm Elections? If so, is this being done to prevent Democrats from effectively exploiting these issues in the Midterms? How can Democrats nonetheless campaign well on this, if Americans are not yet feeling the pain?
Also: Are we reaching the point where we can no longer rely on accurate data from government agencies? Charles, if so, how does this impact your own work?
Our discussion today will make clear that while some of the biggest cuts to Medicaid come after 2026 there is a lot of bad stuff that is happening this year and next that will be felt by people and that we can use to make our case. See his new analysis I link to. This meme in the family is that it is all coming after 2026 is wrong, and we will attempt to challenge it today.
Thank you so much for that clarification!
There's already news coverage about the cuts where I live (excerpts from the article below):
"Already in a tight financial situation, Vista Medical Center East in Waukegan is studying the impact cuts to Medicaid in the “big beautiful bill” President Donald Trump signed into law Friday, reducing both taxes and government spending.
A significant percentage of Vista’s patients are on Medicaid, underinsured, or uninsured, forcing a reliance on Medicaid payments to fund the care those patients receive. Nationwide, healthcare funding for millions of people will be cut by $1 trillion over the next 10 years.
Vista officials have said over the past two years that patients will not be turned away because of a lack of ability to pay. Vista CEO Kim Needham said Monday she and her staff are working to determine the precise effects of the legislation.
“We don’t know the impact yet, but Medicaid is used by thousands of patients in Lake County,” Needham said. “We’re nervous about the Medicaid cuts. We know we will have to make some changes when we find out more...Meanwhile, Needham said she and her staff are looking at possible remedies when the anticipated Medicaid cuts hit. Potential changes may result in reducing personnel, or eliminating some service lines, like offering vaccinations or outpatient tests a doctor may prescribe.
“We know we will have to make some decisions when it comes due,” Needham said. “Some hospitals may have to close their doors. We hope it is not us, but we will have to look at everything closely. We know we have an important place in the community.”
I don't subscribe to the Chicago Tribune so only have the paywall link: https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/07/08/lake-county-medicaid-cuts/
Another consequence will be the creation of barriers that underinsured and uninsured people will face, making them less likely to seek medical care and exacerbate treatable health conditions. I noticed in the article how hospital staff kept emphasizing that there will still be services- probably trying to prevent people from dropping off of their regular appointments.
Agree we MUST control the narrative now. I know many people who prospered under the “Biden economy” - fully employed, good wages - but thought the economy was terrible because of the nonstop drumbeat of the right wing propaganda machine.
And don’t forget the “death panels,” which aren’t even a thing.
The "Death Panels" are indeed coming – courtesy of the Trump Regime’s "Big Ugly Bill".
Wearing my "Obama FEMA Camp" merch, I informed my local MAGAts, that I most certainly could get the new Death Panel service.
Only ... Medicare would not pay for it.
💯 this!
I'd say that meme was very successfully challenged in the discussion today with Charles Gaba. The ACA cuts to premium subsidies, for example are going to hit hard, and soon. I appreciated the emphasis on focusing on impacts to the healthcare system as a whole, and not just to Medicaid cuts. Such as measles in schools when the school year starts.
I second that question about unreliable data from our federal agencies. It's becoming an issue across all the agencies, and it will be good to hear his thoughts.
Called my congress person to ask that she do whatever she can to help the EPA employees who’ve been put on administrative leave!
Bread and Circuses without the Bread.
Yep!
Perhaps a new theme: "No Bread, Just Circuses"
I like that one! Make it into some kind of campaign slogan, I say!
Just wait for the wrestling matches on the White House lawn!
Very impressed by both Newsom and Mamdani. Also saw that Mayor of LA just showed up at MacArthur park. She deserves credit for that.
agree!! thanks, Simon
I would appreciate your analysis of what happened that the Bill passed, what we can do to stop parts, if any, of it from being law, what is a 2-3 month plan for us to get behind, who are the possible leaders in the Democratic party, and who is the strongest, etc. I seek guidance, as I am still stunned that the Bill passed and feel dismayed by the results of our steady and strong opposition efforts over the past 5+ months.
As Democrats we are weak, ineffective, have no leader who could seize on some critical openings that the Republicans created, etc. We need to revamp our party for a new start. We currently have too much baggage that weighs us down, and we do not seem capable of shedding it and emerging renewed, jazzed, and full of lasting vigor. Many thanks!
Lynn, 2 points 1) as for guidance on how to proceed and what to do that is what we discuss here literally every day and I offer a variety of ways for you to engage, do 2) your assessment of the Democratic Party is in my view inaccurate. Trump is unpopular today, significantly so; we were successful in driving down the standing of the big ugly and helped make it the most unpopular piece of legislation in modern history; we have been winning and overperforming in special and off year elections; we lead in the generic ballot, suggesting that if we the election were held today we would have a very good election. There is no question we have a lot to do but this woah is me view of the Dem Party is neither accurate or helpful in my view.
Simon, I love you referring to the monstrous bill as simply "The Big Ugly" It is perfect! Please keep it up! And let's all call it that!
Support your state and local parties! Don’t give up.
i am liking mamdani. he seems to be from the AOC school of politics. acting like a winner! authentic! thx to mayor bass for confronting the military show yesterday in macarthur park. good job & newsom too!!
"Polluted heart" is excellent framing, very good messaging. I hope Dems pick it up and use it.
WE’RE FIGHTING AGAINST efforts to establish a POLICE STATE
In addition to Simon’s Hopium with comments from our great community, my daily read includes Heather Cox Richardson’s "Letters From an American". In a powerful way, she puts current events into a historical context.
Heather’s latest blog entry is particularly telling. She refers to a Talking Points Memo from Harvard sociologist Theda Skocpol. Here is an excerpt from Heather:
"…it appears that officials in the Trump administration are using immigration as a way to establish a police state. Indeed, they are using the concept that presidents have control of foreign affairs as a way to work around the laws in place to prevent a dictatorship."
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/july-7-2025
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/critical-read-about-the-bbb-federalism-and-the-future-of-american-democracy
Yes, HCR is discussing the police state that we now exist in. What right do any of us have anymore, if we can get caught up in an “ICE raid” or whatever this Gestapo consists of? We can be rounded up and disappeared just like anyone else anymore and what rights or recourse do any of us have if we can’t access a lawyer and our family doesn’t know where we are? This is real, and it is extremely disturbing.
I don’t think we are quite there yet. With good, meaningful Hopium resistance I believe we can stop these efforts, or at least make them incomplete and far less effective.
Hope you are correct. Sorry to not be on the positive side at the moment because all I see is this ramping up exponentially, especially with the huge amount of money provided for this by the Reconciliation Bill. I don’t see the effective pushback happening yet and I don’t know what the levers are, apart from a General Strike. As someone who has written hundreds of postcards, made calls nearly everyday to my Reps, protested in both big events, I am not just sitting around prophesying doom. If you or anybody me can tell me how we stop this Police State and restore our rights such that masked men can’t grab us off a street or school or place of work, I’m all ears.
How ?
I just called my AZ rep Greg Stanton's office and my two senators Kelly and Gallego to express my concern about having the military and National Guard roving the streets of American cities. I plan on attending my city council's meeting tonight regarding Mesa's contract with ICE. I have deep concerns after seeing what went down in LA yesterday. This is all to traumatize people.
Thank you for posting that beautiful video of Mamdani--brought tears to my eyes.
Today, I used my 5calls.org to call all my Congressional representatives (Federal & State) to get them to enact legislation forcing the individuals in our streets who are abducting (kidnapping) people to IDENTIFY & UNMASK themselves. Who knows who these thugs are? Hopefully, more & more resistance will prevail to reverse these illegal kidnappings happening on our streets.
How's the DLCC doing for 2026? State legislatures are even more important in the context of Trump.
Why don't you research and get back to us?
A lot of the focus is on Virginia. That's all I can find.
It makes sense to focus on the elections that will occur in 2025 first. Obtaining a trifecta in VA should be a top priority. It would also be nice to get to supermajority in NJ. But, yeah, you have to focus on what's directly in front of you.
Perhaps you can learn more from their virtual event tomorrow dlcc.org/igdefenders
Michael, I went to Google and typed in DLCC 2026 and the very first thing that popped up is their 2025-2026 target map - https://dlcc.org/the-dlcc-target-map-2025-2026/.
Hard to understand what you are doing here in this exchange for you clearly did not make any attempt to find what you are looking for. Please do better. Again we all have limited time in our day and you need to respectful of that here, please and thank you - Simon
So there's a target map.
First, it's one even a kid could make from a simplistic model by including all of the key Midwestern battleground states. It's that basic, with all due respect.
Two, the map leaves out huge swaths of the country that the party has seen a massive erosion of support in where we once were a major force, whether it's Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia. So what are we doing in those places; giving up? That means we aren't making a dent in the 1,000+ state legislative seats we lost in 2010 and 2014, so that preserves a GOP advantage instead of eating into it further. Shouldn't it be a key goal to be a real national party again?
Three, it does not show any reporting or provide any specifics over how DLCC fundraising has been since November, how its grassroots presence has been since November, and other issues like how it is approaching the redistricting challenges in Ohio and Texas.
Glad you are participating MS, especially as a 'young' person, if your bio is current. Go Friars!
Go Friars!
They have a virtual event tomorrow dlcc.org/igdefenders
Thanks, I signed up for it.
Their mailing list is interesting.
Simon, an acquaintance was in the process of negotiating a half-billion $ deal with utilities in a European country, and the whole thing almost got derailed because Trump heard about it, and wanted to claim that the deal was one of his ‘90 deals in 90 days’ tariff package. My acquaintance’s comment: ‘we got a laugh, but had to insert a TDF (Trump Disruption Factor) clause into the agreement.’ His other comment: everything Trump tells you about his tariff deals are lies. I know you’re shocked, SHOCKED, to hear this.
There is so much news now that the destruction wrought by these tariffs does not appear to be breaking through. I saw a clip of an Arkansas farmer (possibly a Trump voter) saying if something doesn’t change by the end of the year many farms will fold. And on social media I saw a lengthy thread from a wine importer in NYC talking about how his business is being ruined by the tariffs.
It doesn’t break through because Trump et al lie about it (“it’s Joe Biden’s and the Democrat’s fault”), and they believe him and get angrier at … nothing.
Simon I can't remember if I commented on Hopium or Hubbell about this - but here goes again. What can we do to help the DEMS come up with a unified, often repeated approach: Have town meetings repeatedly in republican districts with a clear, brief outline: Listing each point - without lofty rhetoric !!!! with video clips 'in their own words' ----- so that the participants are confronted often with the reality --- It's not US saying this --- it's these corrupt politicians - IN THEIR OWN words saying it. Add in some videos of ICE - masked and anonymous - Giving a brief statistic: This is how much immigrants pay in taxes: this is what they do - hospitality industry, health care; agriculture ---- not great detail - just the facts. They have to repeat the SAME message every day. Have press conferences --- we know from the criminal that if you repeat something enough times - people get to believe it --- IT IS OUR TURN TO DO THAT. ----- but - unless I"m missing something - they are not doing that.
Isn’t that what Simon has been saying here on Hopium?
Derek as you may be aware this community helped sell the idea of the townhalls in red areas that were used to great effect to help define the big ugly, successful. Those tactics will continue and as I wrote today the DNC and allies are expanding that into an organizing summer. Second, we do not all have to say the same thing, every day. We can make multiple points over time on the issues that matter. I think this idea that everyone has to say the same thing every day is wrong; people to need to speak passionately and effectively about what matters to them; and we need to make arguments over time not merely message.
Thank you Simon!
We literally had a town hall in my very red district w Rep. Watson Coleman just a few weeks ago, and she presented a bunch of this stuff.
Hi All - the Mamdani video made me smile wide. That's the kind of joy we need in our politics now and always. Reminded me of Kamala's interactions with people on the campaign trail. Keep up the great work - you all are my inspiration!
I thought the same about the smiles and laughter. So good to see that.