I did my first phone bank with the Harris-Walz campaign last Thursday.
We were making calls to AZ. Admittedly it was hard. Lots of negative interactions with Trump voters as we worked through the call list. But in the end, it was very worth it.
I had two really good calls. My favorite was a woman who was a kindergarten teacher and her husband a cop. She was worried about the border but also about education and the economy. And she was excited someone called to talk to her.
Was able to talk about how Kamala Harris supports the bipartisan border bill that Donald Trump had killed for his own political gain, point her to Harris at the Pittsburgh Economic Club and then her issues website.
She had already googled both and was leaning Harris.
Talked about how she can tell her strong Trump family whatever, but her vote is private. I think that helped sell her as well.
I’ll be phone banking until the election. Hard work is good work and we’re going to make a difference.
Well done and having done a lot of GOTV work (phonebanking, canvassing etc), I can tell you if each of helps even one or two people get to the polls who might not have otherwise, that’s huge. It all adds up when we all do our part. And keep going until Election Day!!
In the Big Picture, it seems to me that you are mending our country one voter at a time. With people more online than in conversation, we got pretty unwell as a country. Thank you for being part of the cure.
Ben, I really admire you and millions of people like you who are doing this work. I tried phone banking during the 2020 election and realized, sadly, that I just don't have the temperament that it takes. When I encountered a Trump supporter, many of them seemed to delight in being outrageous, rude, and unbelievably ignorant and uninformed. My desire to call them an un-American idiot overwhelmed my training to "let the insults and negativity roll off you like water off a duck's back."
So, this election I am trying not to feel guilty while people like you and so many others here at Hopium are enthusiastically doing what I could not. But, I've learned here all the other things I can do to serve these critical campaigns as well as dig deep and invest in these fabulous candidates we are supporting here. I'm doing my part, such as it is, and I've got 100 postcards sitting right here on my desk ready to take to the PO tomorrow. Boy, my right hand is stiff and tired! But hard work is good work. Onward!
Fair point. I discovered phone banking is tough. I had to walk around after a couple calls to shake it off and was absolutely wired after the session was over.
I don’t love doing it, but I figured it’s what I can contribute. I already wrote as many postcards as I want to buy stamps for. I’ve donated what I feel comfortable donating. I can’t canvass because of my schedule. So this is where I can keep contributing.
In my case, the I’m going to keep doing something I don’t love doing because I believe it is important. I can’t bear to face Election Day thinking I should have done more.
Keep on volunteering however you feel comfortable and how you can make the biggest impact. All our combined efforts will add up to making that difference.
Might have her ask her husband how he feels about shooting shoplifters. Or having a day when they get "really rough" to discourage crime. Is having cops act with impunity and apparently no constraints a good idea?
Good for you! Yes, it can be rough, but my crew is going again (time #6 or #7) to our dem headquarters this wednesday to do it again! Doing it in a group helps and you're right, EVERY good conversation matters. Also remind myself we're helping them clean their lists so they can be more effective. Part of me wonders if they're having us call rural areas to erode those margins...so, yes, we'll get some of his voters.
Good morning Simon. I wanted to ask you a question. Yesterday I looked through the crosstabs of the Atlas poll, and found something interesting. the Arizona poll shows trump leading by +1, but if you look a the crosstabs you find they oversampled republicans 36.3% to 27.5 democrats - that's a difference of 8.8%. If they oversampled republicans by that much and trump is only leading by 1 point, what does that say about who's actually leading in Arizona? I would think it's actually Harris.
That poll is garbage. The sampling is bad. The methodology is bad. There's nothing to prevent the same person from taking the poll twice. Just for starters.
That said, "oversampling" isn't necessarily an issue. Even real pollsters cannot obtain "perfect" samples. For one thing, you have lots of non-response. For another, you don't know exactly what the electorate will look like. So...topline poll results are calibrated to the pollster's assessments of what enthusiasm, turnout, and composition will look like. You need to include representatives of all subgroups, but not necessarily in perfect proportion.
This article from 2016 is a pretty good explainer:
Just FYI: when a reputable polar has too many in their sample of some kind of person – men or women, college educated or not, urban or rural, black white, whatever— They will statistically reduce that number by weighting them less than they would if they had the “right” number of people of that kind
I don't follow the NYT, because I find the same polling issues in their crosstabs - and for other reasons. But I will read this when I get the chance, thank you!
I have 260 additional letters ready to go for Vote Forward - you can add those to the total! And I'm planning for at least 200 more before election day.
"Major NC USPS alert. All retail and delivery mail services are suspended in zip codes beginning in 286, 287, 288, 289, and also 39 other listed post offices. Besides the human tragedy, for election officials who could not place 190,000 absentee ballots in the mail until Sept 24 because of an 18-day delay ordered by a vote of the State Supreme Court, this is also a major potential threat to voting, especially since the 2023 legislative session ended the 3-day grace period."
NOTE: Emergency personnel and FEMA are working around the clock to provide much-needed aid and restore key services. Give it time.
Info from "The Lurking Ecologist" on another forum:
"With the exception of Boone and Asheville, this is all pretty red territory where the GOP has been discouraging absentee voting for years... It would be interesting to know if there were more absentee ballots requested from Dem friendly Boone/Asheville vs the rest of the area.
"...gasoline, water, power, etc is still in short supply up there, so very few locals care if their ballots arrive 2 weeks later. There's still time. Give the area a couple weeks to get back to a modicum of function."
Thanks for this note. I hope the residents of western NC and all areas affected get the help they need ASAP. I made two donations to the NC Dems over the past two days.
Thank you for the information. I grew up in FL and have witnessed some big storms. At first, it seems like you're stuck on another planet without resources. But once FEMA gets a distribution system up and running (often in a Walmart parking lot!), you start to get your balance again. I've also seen people go out of their way to help their neighbors, even those who vote differently. In an odd way, people say how nice it is to talk to their neighbors. With no power or AC, everyone leaves their doors open!
Volunteered at an animal shelter getting pet supplies out during Sandy aftermath here in NJ. People appreciate the help. And as I posted yesterday, the folks in NC I spoke to over the weekend said they were voting no matter what.
"NC has a “natural disaster” exemption to its new Voter ID law for voters who are “victim of a natural disaster” under federal disaster declaration. This exemption was designed for voters who may have lost their ID but requires a provisional ballot."
My husband and I have roughly 1100 postcards ready to mail, and we'll write another hundred in the next three weeks. Postcards to voters are our jam - the perfect contribution for introverts who can't handle phone banking or door knocking.
I’ve been writing from your list, postcardstovoters.org and fieldteam6.org. After this is over I will ad up how much I spent on postcard stamps ($$$$.$$) and act blue express recurring donations. I feel like I’ve received 80 million texts and emails requesting additional donations. Thank you for suggesting a glass of wine.
The one concern I have is the latino vote. Obama and clinton won latino vote by 50 to 60 points. Biden won this vote by 30 points and harris is leading trump by 14 points with latinos. I am, wondering if trumps hateful speeches are resonating with them
The good news is harris for the first time in 24 years, a democrat,, is leading with seniors over trump by 4 points nationally and they are likely voters
There are mitigating factors. Harris has high positive marks from these voters in these polls (it’s more about a choice for Trump based on the economy than negatives about Harris). Recently Voto Latino reported very high Dem registration among the Latino community (unclear if the electorate is the same as modeled by these polls and, as Simon has pointed out before, the Latino electorate has grown in numbers absolutely, so a smaller percentage of a bigger pie may be part of natural evolution and we could end up better off in the end (as we care about total vote share of the electorate to win, not subsegments). And the enthusisasm for Latino voters - in these polls - is not at the same level as other segments (although this is not clear from the most polls).
All this said, Mike Madrid and Chuck Rocha think this relatively percentage decline is significant (compared to 2020). These are good polls and we do have a real issue to address (but not to doom scroll about).
The last thing is that Harris has significantly improved the Dem share since the switch but we clearly have more work to do. I tend to trust the campaign in that it knows the voters it needs to turn out in Nevada, AZ and elsewhere (including Latino voters) and is doing all it can do to make that happen.
I have to admit I got a little sick of listening to Mike Madrid. I know he's trying to help, and I appreciate it, but for a while ( at least back when it was Biden), all I seemed to hear from him was the variation of... Here's how Biden (or Dems) are fuckin' up with Hispanic voters lol. Hearing him too much just made we want to doom scroll. Like you, I trust Harris and her team are doing what they have to. I swear there are a dozen little landmines to wor... I mean do something about!
Madrid is very positive about the campaign’s effort with the community,, his only suggestion is trying to make the economic message stronger per clear concerns about housing and cost of living. I for one think the campaign’s “Tequila Tax” approach is very smart and could be extended. Trump’s tariffs will directly raise the cost of groceries, clothing and other items that the Latino community relies on (as they buy products imported from home). I think it’s an issue of time - they started behind and are catching up. Ironically, Rocha was complaining about a lack of campaign leadership from the community in the conversation about the poll and I initially thought “oh, no” and realized - Julie Chavez Rodriguez is in charge of the whole thing! I think the campaign can get there, I hope. It’s really the only bad news - these polls - I’ve seen. Harvard IOP and the Howard poll showed the opposite with the other voter segments everyone was previously worried about (we are kicking Trump’s ass with young voters and black voters).
A very valid concern. This isn’t Harris’ fault, but it is her problem. Our party has failed to have a detailed message for this community beyond lumping together a common sense pro-immigration message. Harris is working to change this.
After its change of ownership, Univision has apparently become very Trump-friendly. That’s unfortunate and a new challenge. I’ve seen reports that there is very pervasive Spanish-language propaganda and disinformation – e.g. with "Comrade Kamala" trending and her falsely being labelled a Communist.
Hopefully we can influence the Spanish-speaking airwaves outside of television (Internet, etc,.). Speaking of that, can we do something on streaming services like Netflix to target Spanish-speaking voters?
Wanted to also share this great chart from Adam Carlson - its really incredibly what the campaign has accomplished and all the momentum has been on one side (ours). https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1840768370381111446
One more important thing you can do to boost early vote: Contact people you know who are away from home. Friend in the Army or Coast Guard out of state? Family members who retired to Costa Rica? They can vote - but they might not know unless you tell them!
The greatness and the goodness of the Democratic Party isn't just about a set of principles or policies, it's also about character. Here in North Carolina there's been a demonstration of just the kind of character test we face in this election. We've all heard about the wanton depravity of Mark Robinson, the republican nominee for governor, but over the last two days we've seen what real character and decency look like as well. The Democratic nominee for governor, Josh Stein, has spent the last two days asking his supporters not for donations to his own campaign but to please, if they can, donate to Feeding the Carolinas and the North Carolina Disaster Relief Fund to assist the communities in western North Carolina that have been devastated by flooding from Hurricane Helene.
Democrats are proving that character really does count, and my husband and I can't wait to vote blue when early voting starts here on October 17th. Thanks for all you do here at Hopium.
I think the link to the CNN story might be broken? I got an error message when I tried. Wanted to read that, because I'd love to see someone other than Simon pointing out Democratic overperformance in the midterms.
Amazing! Also, my GenZ daughter and I have launched 🍩Donuts+Democracy🗳️ and are already partnering with 22 colleges in battleground states/districts and HBCUs with more being added every day. The premise is simple - students host a GOTV event - Your Donut - Your Vote - Your Future - and we fund the donuts. We test-piloted this program in 2022 midterms in NV and it was magic. And at $2 a donut is the most effective and least expensive GOTV strategy. Plus young voters are the key to winning and have the most room for growth. To learn more and support our efforts (we need to raise $30K in 7 days and in less than 24 hrs are 1/3 of the way there): https://open.substack.com/pub/democratsdeliver/p/donuts-democracy-magic?r=51f18&utm_medium=ios
Thank you so much! Please spread the word - since we could not get schools signed on until late September when everyone was back in session, we have a very short window to raise $30K and our first two events are this week. https://democratsdeliver.substack.com/p/donuts-democracy-magic?r=51f18
Thank you so much! Please spread the word - since we could not get schools signed on until late September when everyone was back in session, we have a very short window to raise $30K and our first two events are this week. https://democratsdeliver.substack.com/p/donuts-democracy-magic?r=51f18
So sorry for the delay in responding - the message just showed up in my inbox! No need to subscribe via Substack (though it’s free!). I will message you now with donation details. Thanks so much Brian!
A question for the group - as per the theme here, I have written 200 postcards to voters in Arizona. The instructions say not to mail them until October 24. From our phone bank with Kirsten Engel, I know that ballots are mailed well before then in AZ. Any idea why the mailing date is so close to the election?
I don’t follow that guideline. I look up when early voting and vote by mail ballots will be accepted. With Louis DeJoy still Postmaster General the postcards could take longer to reach their destination.
I know Vote Forward carefully gauges mailing times, running tests and taking into account the delays (this year's send window begins Oct. 1, much earlier than in previous election cycles). That said, I'm sending my letters at the beginning of the send window to ensure that they reach their destinations in time.
For NC there are three different dates to the same addresses for Vote Forward, so please do not mail on a different date or they might get three with the same message in the same time period. And none in the other two time periods.These dates have been tested, so please do not mail at any time other than what you were scheduled.
I would stick with the instructions given. They have their reasons why they ask the writer to send them on certain date. If there is to be a chance, they can email you any change from the instructions.
I have Oct 17 and 24 mailing dates from Postcards to Swing States. The reason, as best as I can figure, is that many voters are scattered, busy, not all that committed in the first place, and a reminder close to election day gets them off their butts. Earlier, unless their state has early voting, the more likely the message will be forgotten. It looks to me like the organization has done their homework. I'll follow their instructions.
I was instructed to mail Oct. 11 for 200 addresses to Pa. that I got a couple months ago from Postcards to Swing States. Some of these postcard and letter-writing operations apparently send multiple postcards or letters to the same voters at different times.
Any thoughts on this dilemma? I seem to have shredded the PTSS directions when I was shredding other names and addresses. Unlike other operations, I don’t think they have a way to check back on their website. I know I’m to mail in the first week of October, but the exact date. The 3rd? The 8th? I know, bad volunteer.
I am mailing my AZ postcards tomorrow, October 1st. Early voting begins October 15th, so I figured this will give unregistered voters the info and time to register and get their hands on a mail-in ballot. This is my first election since moving the AZ. Does my time table make sense or should I wait?
Gordon, please follow the mailing instructions that came with your batches of names. The political directors of every organization that is sponsoring writing campaigns have studied the mailing dates to reach maximal impact, often in coordination with other organizations that are targeting the same voters that you write to.
I signed up with one of the post card groups per recommendation of Hopium member and was told my 200 cards are to arrive Oct 20-24 with a specific targeted list. I will assume these are to voters who have been identified as having not yet voted. As a side note, even though I have been making some donation to some candidate nearly every day, my partner says she is opposed to money contributions because she doesn’t believe American election should be turned on money. She has agreed, however, that she will help me with the postcarding when they arrive. Cheers Hopium Mates
They’ve done studies on this and have a schedule that works. Please stick to it! There are also multiple waves of postcards going out, so timing is important.
Idea for a PAC-financed ad to further damage the Republican brand and top R candidates in North Carolina: Brief video clips of the most vile, racist utterances from Robinson and Trump, underscored by the quote texts on screen. Concludes with large punchline written in font used by Alt-Reich groups:
I did my first phone bank with the Harris-Walz campaign last Thursday.
We were making calls to AZ. Admittedly it was hard. Lots of negative interactions with Trump voters as we worked through the call list. But in the end, it was very worth it.
I had two really good calls. My favorite was a woman who was a kindergarten teacher and her husband a cop. She was worried about the border but also about education and the economy. And she was excited someone called to talk to her.
Was able to talk about how Kamala Harris supports the bipartisan border bill that Donald Trump had killed for his own political gain, point her to Harris at the Pittsburgh Economic Club and then her issues website.
She had already googled both and was leaning Harris.
Talked about how she can tell her strong Trump family whatever, but her vote is private. I think that helped sell her as well.
I’ll be phone banking until the election. Hard work is good work and we’re going to make a difference.
You're great, Ben H. Let's keep at the phones.
When you call using the FT6 database you get very few, if any negative reactions. Reaching out to unregistered people who trend Democratic.
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
Thank you!
Well done and having done a lot of GOTV work (phonebanking, canvassing etc), I can tell you if each of helps even one or two people get to the polls who might not have otherwise, that’s huge. It all adds up when we all do our part. And keep going until Election Day!!
Those postcards and letters substantiate the texts, phone calls, etc and make it more likely they'll be voters. Canvassing is even more persuasive.
In the Big Picture, it seems to me that you are mending our country one voter at a time. With people more online than in conversation, we got pretty unwell as a country. Thank you for being part of the cure.
Well said, love this
Ben, I really admire you and millions of people like you who are doing this work. I tried phone banking during the 2020 election and realized, sadly, that I just don't have the temperament that it takes. When I encountered a Trump supporter, many of them seemed to delight in being outrageous, rude, and unbelievably ignorant and uninformed. My desire to call them an un-American idiot overwhelmed my training to "let the insults and negativity roll off you like water off a duck's back."
So, this election I am trying not to feel guilty while people like you and so many others here at Hopium are enthusiastically doing what I could not. But, I've learned here all the other things I can do to serve these critical campaigns as well as dig deep and invest in these fabulous candidates we are supporting here. I'm doing my part, such as it is, and I've got 100 postcards sitting right here on my desk ready to take to the PO tomorrow. Boy, my right hand is stiff and tired! But hard work is good work. Onward!
Fair point. I discovered phone banking is tough. I had to walk around after a couple calls to shake it off and was absolutely wired after the session was over.
I don’t love doing it, but I figured it’s what I can contribute. I already wrote as many postcards as I want to buy stamps for. I’ve donated what I feel comfortable donating. I can’t canvass because of my schedule. So this is where I can keep contributing.
In my case, the I’m going to keep doing something I don’t love doing because I believe it is important. I can’t bear to face Election Day thinking I should have done more.
Keep on volunteering however you feel comfortable and how you can make the biggest impact. All our combined efforts will add up to making that difference.
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🙏🏻
That's inspiring Ben, thank you.
Thank you Ben …. this Arizona voter from Tucson deeply appreciates your calls !
Might have her ask her husband how he feels about shooting shoplifters. Or having a day when they get "really rough" to discourage crime. Is having cops act with impunity and apparently no constraints a good idea?
I get what you’re referring to, but would have been poor tact.
Probably would have led her to ending the phone call with her deciding politics is ugly and it’s better to just ignore it.
I was venting not a serious suggestion. I agree with you
Good for you! Yes, it can be rough, but my crew is going again (time #6 or #7) to our dem headquarters this wednesday to do it again! Doing it in a group helps and you're right, EVERY good conversation matters. Also remind myself we're helping them clean their lists so they can be more effective. Part of me wonders if they're having us call rural areas to erode those margins...so, yes, we'll get some of his voters.
Good morning Simon. I wanted to ask you a question. Yesterday I looked through the crosstabs of the Atlas poll, and found something interesting. the Arizona poll shows trump leading by +1, but if you look a the crosstabs you find they oversampled republicans 36.3% to 27.5 democrats - that's a difference of 8.8%. If they oversampled republicans by that much and trump is only leading by 1 point, what does that say about who's actually leading in Arizona? I would think it's actually Harris.
That poll is garbage. The sampling is bad. The methodology is bad. There's nothing to prevent the same person from taking the poll twice. Just for starters.
That said, "oversampling" isn't necessarily an issue. Even real pollsters cannot obtain "perfect" samples. For one thing, you have lots of non-response. For another, you don't know exactly what the electorate will look like. So...topline poll results are calibrated to the pollster's assessments of what enthusiasm, turnout, and composition will look like. You need to include representatives of all subgroups, but not necessarily in perfect proportion.
This article from 2016 is a pretty good explainer:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/20/upshot/the-error-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html
Speaking clinically, oversampling is clearly injecting 'examiner bias' into the mix. Worse than worthless....dangerous!!
Just FYI: when a reputable polar has too many in their sample of some kind of person – men or women, college educated or not, urban or rural, black white, whatever— They will statistically reduce that number by weighting them less than they would if they had the “right” number of people of that kind
I don't follow the NYT, because I find the same polling issues in their crosstabs - and for other reasons. But I will read this when I get the chance, thank you!
Thanks for this! So important.
ACTIONS BY EVERYONE GROWS FREEDOM
How to Prevent "GOP MASS PSYCHOSIS - How an Entire Population Becomes MENTALLY ILL"
❤️ Discredit totalitarian propaganda everywhere
🤣 Mock GOP worship of dictators
❤️ Grow joyful unifying structures
❤️ c 1st 📈
https://youtu.be/09maaUaRT4M
I have 260 additional letters ready to go for Vote Forward - you can add those to the total! And I'm planning for at least 200 more before election day.
You can go into your account and add the additional numbers yourself.
"Major NC USPS alert. All retail and delivery mail services are suspended in zip codes beginning in 286, 287, 288, 289, and also 39 other listed post offices. Besides the human tragedy, for election officials who could not place 190,000 absentee ballots in the mail until Sept 24 because of an 18-day delay ordered by a vote of the State Supreme Court, this is also a major potential threat to voting, especially since the 2023 legislative session ended the 3-day grace period."
– Gerry Cohen, Wake County Board of Elections
thank you
Thank you. I didn’t know where to look for this precise information! YOU provided it. Many thanks indeed!
Do we know if Anderson wants us to keep writing given the mess with mail delivery and late mailing of ballots, or just give money to the NC party?
NOTE: Emergency personnel and FEMA are working around the clock to provide much-needed aid and restore key services. Give it time.
Info from "The Lurking Ecologist" on another forum:
"With the exception of Boone and Asheville, this is all pretty red territory where the GOP has been discouraging absentee voting for years... It would be interesting to know if there were more absentee ballots requested from Dem friendly Boone/Asheville vs the rest of the area.
"...gasoline, water, power, etc is still in short supply up there, so very few locals care if their ballots arrive 2 weeks later. There's still time. Give the area a couple weeks to get back to a modicum of function."
Thanks for this note. I hope the residents of western NC and all areas affected get the help they need ASAP. I made two donations to the NC Dems over the past two days.
From Rep Jeff Jackson and hopefully our next State Attorney General. https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffjacksonnc/p/helene-relief-update?r=41p0j&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&comments=true
Thank you for the information. I grew up in FL and have witnessed some big storms. At first, it seems like you're stuck on another planet without resources. But once FEMA gets a distribution system up and running (often in a Walmart parking lot!), you start to get your balance again. I've also seen people go out of their way to help their neighbors, even those who vote differently. In an odd way, people say how nice it is to talk to their neighbors. With no power or AC, everyone leaves their doors open!
Volunteered at an animal shelter getting pet supplies out during Sandy aftermath here in NJ. People appreciate the help. And as I posted yesterday, the folks in NC I spoke to over the weekend said they were voting no matter what.
"NC has a “natural disaster” exemption to its new Voter ID law for voters who are “victim of a natural disaster” under federal disaster declaration. This exemption was designed for voters who may have lost their ID but requires a provisional ballot."
– Gerry Cohen, Wake County Board of Elections
Thanks so much for this important info - been seeing some worry about this issue.
Thank you for letting us know about this. Sending our prayers to the people of North Carolina! Braving the storm and leading the front for democracy!
My husband and I have roughly 1100 postcards ready to mail, and we'll write another hundred in the next three weeks. Postcards to voters are our jam - the perfect contribution for introverts who can't handle phone banking or door knocking.
💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
I’ve been writing from your list, postcardstovoters.org and fieldteam6.org. After this is over I will ad up how much I spent on postcard stamps ($$$$.$$) and act blue express recurring donations. I feel like I’ve received 80 million texts and emails requesting additional donations. Thank you for suggesting a glass of wine.
The one concern I have is the latino vote. Obama and clinton won latino vote by 50 to 60 points. Biden won this vote by 30 points and harris is leading trump by 14 points with latinos. I am, wondering if trumps hateful speeches are resonating with them
The good news is harris for the first time in 24 years, a democrat,, is leading with seniors over trump by 4 points nationally and they are likely voters
Can you share? I’ve been deep diving on this, trying to understand (while postcarding, etc.). Thanks.
I can't find the reference so it must have been someone else. I'll delete the comment since I can't veriry.
It's hard to determine the accuracy of polling. Also, which poll are you referring to ?
there are two polls (both well done -large samples, dual language, etc) -
1. the most recent one (causing angst) is the NBC telemundo poll. See: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25177909-nbc-news-telemundo-cnbc-latino-voter-poll-topline-results-september-17-23-2024
2. Last week, Pew released a more robust poll with similar findings (about a 5 to 10 percentage point decline in Latino support). See: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/09/24/in-tight-u-s-presidential-race-latino-voters-preferences-mirror-2020/
Also, the numbers reflect what Adam Carlson has had in his cross tab aggregates. See: https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1840383642641584228
There are mitigating factors. Harris has high positive marks from these voters in these polls (it’s more about a choice for Trump based on the economy than negatives about Harris). Recently Voto Latino reported very high Dem registration among the Latino community (unclear if the electorate is the same as modeled by these polls and, as Simon has pointed out before, the Latino electorate has grown in numbers absolutely, so a smaller percentage of a bigger pie may be part of natural evolution and we could end up better off in the end (as we care about total vote share of the electorate to win, not subsegments). And the enthusisasm for Latino voters - in these polls - is not at the same level as other segments (although this is not clear from the most polls).
All this said, Mike Madrid and Chuck Rocha think this relatively percentage decline is significant (compared to 2020). These are good polls and we do have a real issue to address (but not to doom scroll about).
The last thing is that Harris has significantly improved the Dem share since the switch but we clearly have more work to do. I tend to trust the campaign in that it knows the voters it needs to turn out in Nevada, AZ and elsewhere (including Latino voters) and is doing all it can do to make that happen.
I have to admit I got a little sick of listening to Mike Madrid. I know he's trying to help, and I appreciate it, but for a while ( at least back when it was Biden), all I seemed to hear from him was the variation of... Here's how Biden (or Dems) are fuckin' up with Hispanic voters lol. Hearing him too much just made we want to doom scroll. Like you, I trust Harris and her team are doing what they have to. I swear there are a dozen little landmines to wor... I mean do something about!
Madrid is very positive about the campaign’s effort with the community,, his only suggestion is trying to make the economic message stronger per clear concerns about housing and cost of living. I for one think the campaign’s “Tequila Tax” approach is very smart and could be extended. Trump’s tariffs will directly raise the cost of groceries, clothing and other items that the Latino community relies on (as they buy products imported from home). I think it’s an issue of time - they started behind and are catching up. Ironically, Rocha was complaining about a lack of campaign leadership from the community in the conversation about the poll and I initially thought “oh, no” and realized - Julie Chavez Rodriguez is in charge of the whole thing! I think the campaign can get there, I hope. It’s really the only bad news - these polls - I’ve seen. Harvard IOP and the Howard poll showed the opposite with the other voter segments everyone was previously worried about (we are kicking Trump’s ass with young voters and black voters).
NBC still showing Harris with a 14 point lead per Hispanics and Pew showing an 18 point lead.
A very valid concern. This isn’t Harris’ fault, but it is her problem. Our party has failed to have a detailed message for this community beyond lumping together a common sense pro-immigration message. Harris is working to change this.
After its change of ownership, Univision has apparently become very Trump-friendly. That’s unfortunate and a new challenge. I’ve seen reports that there is very pervasive Spanish-language propaganda and disinformation – e.g. with "Comrade Kamala" trending and her falsely being labelled a Communist.
I think they're doing all they can to counter it. Some have disputed how big the deficit it. Time will tell....
Hopefully we can influence the Spanish-speaking airwaves outside of television (Internet, etc,.). Speaking of that, can we do something on streaming services like Netflix to target Spanish-speaking voters?
Wanted to also share this great chart from Adam Carlson - its really incredibly what the campaign has accomplished and all the momentum has been on one side (ours). https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1840768370381111446
One more important thing you can do to boost early vote: Contact people you know who are away from home. Friend in the Army or Coast Guard out of state? Family members who retired to Costa Rica? They can vote - but they might not know unless you tell them!
Fvap gov and votefromabroad.org will get them squared away.
The greatness and the goodness of the Democratic Party isn't just about a set of principles or policies, it's also about character. Here in North Carolina there's been a demonstration of just the kind of character test we face in this election. We've all heard about the wanton depravity of Mark Robinson, the republican nominee for governor, but over the last two days we've seen what real character and decency look like as well. The Democratic nominee for governor, Josh Stein, has spent the last two days asking his supporters not for donations to his own campaign but to please, if they can, donate to Feeding the Carolinas and the North Carolina Disaster Relief Fund to assist the communities in western North Carolina that have been devastated by flooding from Hurricane Helene.
Democrats are proving that character really does count, and my husband and I can't wait to vote blue when early voting starts here on October 17th. Thanks for all you do here at Hopium.
I think the link to the CNN story might be broken? I got an error message when I tried. Wanted to read that, because I'd love to see someone other than Simon pointing out Democratic overperformance in the midterms.
Amazing! Also, my GenZ daughter and I have launched 🍩Donuts+Democracy🗳️ and are already partnering with 22 colleges in battleground states/districts and HBCUs with more being added every day. The premise is simple - students host a GOTV event - Your Donut - Your Vote - Your Future - and we fund the donuts. We test-piloted this program in 2022 midterms in NV and it was magic. And at $2 a donut is the most effective and least expensive GOTV strategy. Plus young voters are the key to winning and have the most room for growth. To learn more and support our efforts (we need to raise $30K in 7 days and in less than 24 hrs are 1/3 of the way there): https://open.substack.com/pub/democratsdeliver/p/donuts-democracy-magic?r=51f18&utm_medium=ios
Just donated.
Thank you SO much Purobi!!
This is superb!
Thank you so much! Please spread the word - since we could not get schools signed on until late September when everyone was back in session, we have a very short window to raise $30K and our first two events are this week. https://democratsdeliver.substack.com/p/donuts-democracy-magic?r=51f18
Thank YOU ! 🍩+🗳️
Thank you so much! Please spread the word - since we could not get schools signed on until late September when everyone was back in session, we have a very short window to raise $30K and our first two events are this week. https://democratsdeliver.substack.com/p/donuts-democracy-magic?r=51f18
How do you donate? By subscribing to the Substack?
So sorry for the delay in responding - the message just showed up in my inbox! No need to subscribe via Substack (though it’s free!). I will message you now with donation details. Thanks so much Brian!
A question for the group - as per the theme here, I have written 200 postcards to voters in Arizona. The instructions say not to mail them until October 24. From our phone bank with Kirsten Engel, I know that ballots are mailed well before then in AZ. Any idea why the mailing date is so close to the election?
I don’t follow that guideline. I look up when early voting and vote by mail ballots will be accepted. With Louis DeJoy still Postmaster General the postcards could take longer to reach their destination.
I know Vote Forward carefully gauges mailing times, running tests and taking into account the delays (this year's send window begins Oct. 1, much earlier than in previous election cycles). That said, I'm sending my letters at the beginning of the send window to ensure that they reach their destinations in time.
For NC there are three different dates to the same addresses for Vote Forward, so please do not mail on a different date or they might get three with the same message in the same time period. And none in the other two time periods.These dates have been tested, so please do not mail at any time other than what you were scheduled.
Correct!!! There is a great reference book that explains the effectiveness of mail contacts: https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780815740636/Get-Out-the-Vote-How-to-Increase-Voter-Turnout-5th-Edition
WinningtheHouse.com has the mail dates for each set of postcards and other information. We need to follow the schedule provided, and some updates are being made. https://person2person-d15a54383d00.herokuapp.com/
If you have postcard writing questions email winningthehouse2024@gmail.com
I would stick with the instructions given. They have their reasons why they ask the writer to send them on certain date. If there is to be a chance, they can email you any change from the instructions.
I have Oct 17 and 24 mailing dates from Postcards to Swing States. The reason, as best as I can figure, is that many voters are scattered, busy, not all that committed in the first place, and a reminder close to election day gets them off their butts. Earlier, unless their state has early voting, the more likely the message will be forgotten. It looks to me like the organization has done their homework. I'll follow their instructions.
I was instructed to mail Oct. 11 for 200 addresses to Pa. that I got a couple months ago from Postcards to Swing States. Some of these postcard and letter-writing operations apparently send multiple postcards or letters to the same voters at different times.
I got the same date for PA
Any thoughts on this dilemma? I seem to have shredded the PTSS directions when I was shredding other names and addresses. Unlike other operations, I don’t think they have a way to check back on their website. I know I’m to mail in the first week of October, but the exact date. The 3rd? The 8th? I know, bad volunteer.
First week of Oct. seems close enough to me.
Thanks. I can get panicky. 🫨
Mailing postcards on the assigned dates will still reach people who have not voted. They are the audience.
I am mailing my AZ postcards tomorrow, October 1st. Early voting begins October 15th, so I figured this will give unregistered voters the info and time to register and get their hands on a mail-in ballot. This is my first election since moving the AZ. Does my time table make sense or should I wait?
Gordon, please follow the mailing instructions that came with your batches of names. The political directors of every organization that is sponsoring writing campaigns have studied the mailing dates to reach maximal impact, often in coordination with other organizations that are targeting the same voters that you write to.
There is a great reference book that contains all of this research data: https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780815740636/Get-Out-the-Vote-How-to-Increase-Voter-Turnout-5th-Edition
I signed up with one of the post card groups per recommendation of Hopium member and was told my 200 cards are to arrive Oct 20-24 with a specific targeted list. I will assume these are to voters who have been identified as having not yet voted. As a side note, even though I have been making some donation to some candidate nearly every day, my partner says she is opposed to money contributions because she doesn’t believe American election should be turned on money. She has agreed, however, that she will help me with the postcarding when they arrive. Cheers Hopium Mates
They’ve done studies on this and have a schedule that works. Please stick to it! There are also multiple waves of postcards going out, so timing is important.
I continue to be inspired by your expertise and dedication. I’m sure I’m not alone in that sentiment.
Vice President Harris at her Las Vegas, NV, rally talking about a second debate:
"I'm all in ! even if my opponent is ready to fold !"
Idea for a PAC-financed ad to further damage the Republican brand and top R candidates in North Carolina: Brief video clips of the most vile, racist utterances from Robinson and Trump, underscored by the quote texts on screen. Concludes with large punchline written in font used by Alt-Reich groups:
"Vote for the Nazis – both Black and White."
Recent sample quote:
"[Crime would end] if you had one really violent day. One rough hour. And I mean real rough. The word will get out and it will end immediately.”
– Donald Trump, rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, 29 Sept 2024
Crazy, huh? What the F is he talking about?
To me it’s clear what he’s talking about. Trump yearns for an American "Kristallnacht".
I guess.
Or The Purge... either way unacceptable!!!