Sounds pretty clear Cassidy is going to vote to confirm, just like with RFK Jr and Hegseth where he also had "concerns" and was reassured by promises, all since broken lmmmm
Yup. Unfortunately that's what happened. Murkowski is the only Republican in the Senate with any integrity at all. The rest will go down in history as traitors.
The difference in R vs D vote totals in his district is formidable. And removing the incumbent whose record was so clearly a disaster is no longer a motivator. But maybe the general will generate much more enthusiasm. Eager to hear your analysis.
Thanks, Simon. Good news is busting out all over. If we could flip TX Gov & LG it would be monumental. The LG in TX is more powerful than the Gov, or at least it was. Let’s look to KS Senate, too.
The Kansas Senate race I just learned about. It looks interesting. At any rate, having a candidate like we do there is good for the breadth of the party and for our ability to reach voters we struggle with. Like Talarico brings.
Cook has Kansas and Nebraska as likely R. Sabato has Kansas, Nebraska, Florida and Montana as likely R. I'd like to see more data suggesting we have a reasonable chance in those States before we rush any of them money. As we all know, things can change. The economy can further deteriorate; the war in Iran can drag on. It's worth keeping an eye on these States, for sure.
cook doesn't even show much enthusiasm for the house, thinking it will not be that big a wave. to me he's kind of playing this game of negativity and if he's right, all can claim he's a genius. because he could be right; but a lot of people think he isn't.
Cook has historically been slow to make ratings changes. At least that's my impression.
In any case, we need more data about the races in Kansas, Florida, Nebraska, and Montana.
I personally haven't decided what to do about Michigan. I'm waiting.
I remember in 2022 when Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had a strong showing in the WA CD-3 primary. The state party, however, was slow to support her. The DCCC didn't ever get behind her. There was an absence of polling data for that race. But having studied the primary numbers, I and many others thought she had a real chance. It helped that Michelle Goldberg wrote about her race. Then, to the surprise of many, she won. One NYT reporter said that no one could have predicted her win. Obviously that wasn't true.
Yes. And Democrats had 219k votes, while Republicans (mostly Marshall) had 330k votes. Kansas still looks like a long-shot to me, and "likely" seems generous to me. I still see it as a "safe" R seat. That is, until there are data that indicates otherwise.
KS Senate is interesting. I listened to Bulwark interview w him yesterday, he's impressive and people seem to be responding to his message. Hope abides in Kansas.
The Texas potential voting pool has changed significantly since 2018 when Beto lost by 2 points to incumbent Sen Ted Cruz.
Since 2018, we have seen approximately 680,00 more “White” Texans die than Hispanic Texans.
On the front end, we see an estimated 180,000 to 250,000 Texas Hispanics turn 18 each year v. 90,000 to 110,000 “white” Texans turning 18 each year.
If we take the low end of that range, we can assume 720,000 more Texas Hispanics have turned 18 since 2018 than “white” Texans turning 18.
So, the potential voting pool since 2018 has 678,555 fewer “whites” on the back end (deaths) and at least 720,000 more Texan Hispanics who have turned 18 than Texas whites.
Assuming that whites lean Republican and Hispanics tilt Dem, the voting pool gives Dems about a 1.4 million potential advantage.
Beto needed 215,000 more votes from the 8.4 million ballots in 2018.
Wow, thanks for this great analysis! I love getting some inside scoops from folks in our Senate possible pick up states! Do you get a sense that unenrolleds, independents and some Rs may vote blue as well? I saw the Houston Chronicle endorsed Talarico. Not sure if this was unusual for them to endorse blue.
I expect many moderate Texans to support Talarico. Or not vote in the Senate race. He is a much “safer” vote for them than was Beto (whom I’ve known since he was a 9-year-old tag along behind his politician father.)
Beto had to challenge an incumbent.
Talarico gets to chase an open seat.
Ted Cruz was not a likable person; Ken Paxton is unlikable. (There’s a difference)
Cruz is a skilled orator and aggressive campaigner. Paxton is not.
Beto had to carry the entire ticket. For the first time in decades, Texas Dens have candidates for all federal offices and for all 181 state legislative races. All that Dem action across Texas will accrue to Talarico’s benefit
I would guess there will be "ticket splitters", and Hinojosa will have the toughest time. Some people are going to vote Talarico + Abbot. Getting Hinojosa across the line, and the Lieutenant Gov. race (Patrick vs. who?) will be the biggest test. If we can get all that done it will be shattering to the GOP.
I had lunch a past Austin mayor last month. Steve had met with Gina and advised her go BIG in South Texas as her best path. She will benefit from Talarico’s urban coattails.
I expect Talarico to win. Down ballot? Time will tell. It might be fairly close. Abbott and Lt Gov Patrick will
spend more than $100 million.
Musk might come in (Dems need to
Make sure Texans know that billionaires are trying to rig the system for the billionaires)
I would guess there will be "ticket splitters", and Hinojosa will have the toughest time. Some people are going to vote Talarico + Abbot. Getting Hinojosa across the line, and the Lieutenant Gov. race (Patrick vs. Goodwin) will be the biggest test. If we can get all that done it will be shattering to the GOP.
also Beto was pro-gun safety, people interpreted that as "coming for your guns." There's a big diff, but unfortunately, people weren't buying it. He's done a ton of voter reg work w Powered X People since then. Thanks for the update!
That's a Moms Demand Action frame that was developed by expert messenger Shannon Watts. Gun safety incorporates safe storage, background checks, extreme risk protections, etc. As a matter of fact, our partner org in DC is Everytown for Gun Safety (former Mayors vs. Guns). :)
From your analysis, looks like partisan voter registration and GOTV is super important in Texas (and everywhere). I hope the Texas Dem party and their excellent party chair have the wherewithal to execute on this.
I agree. The key, of course, is execution .. making it happen. Beto is out there every week on college campuses… getting good engagement with younger folk
Good number-crunching. Another factor to consider is the effect of domestic migration. These are the most recent numbers I could find on a brief search:
"Nearly 612,000 people moved to Texas last year [2023], while about 478,000 moved out."
Great analysis, Gary - thank you! I lived in Dallas for 30 years and having been watching the demographic of Dallas changing over those decades. Hispanic citizens now represent 41% of the state population and they will change the state for the better with their votes. My last 10 years in Dallas I lived in a neighborhood that was primarily Mexican ancestry people. Best neighborhood I've ever lived in!
Non-partisan voter registration is also important, and it adds many access points that partisan groups do not have. Events, community centers, etc. in underserved areas are seeing big enthusiasm. I personally register young (but not college age) Hispanics at these events—motivated, first time voters. See ntxvotes.org and join us!
Yup, he doesn't want to be harrassed by MAGAts for the rest of his term and beyond. He learned nothing from his votes on RFK or Hegseth because he didn't vote for them because they promised to do things they reneged on; he voted for them because he was, is, and now clearly always will be gutless.
These people saying they fear for their lives--has anything actually happened to them? Of course not‐‐Trump is the most gutless (with the biggest gut) of all. None of the political murders since Trump took office started with threats, credible or otherwise. Me, I'd love to have enough power that Trump thought I was worth a death threat or two. They say youth is wasted on the young, but power is often wasted on the powerful, too.
Cowards. I guess a cushy lobbyist job doesn't hurt. How Cassidy can look at himself in the mirror, I just don't know. Same with the rest of those cowards.
Simon summarizes a wide variety of issues, especially elections and candidates. Listening to the candidate interviews from all over the country helps you learn in depth information about major issues in different regions that we can leverage to win
a very good read from robert reich this am. and probably the issue of our lifetimes. income inequality. now is the time for this issue to be front & center. hope the link works!
I just finished making my calls and I'm waiting for Senator Bill Cassidy, and here He is! His decision is, He will confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General. This is a Very Unfortunate and Dangerous decision! I hope he will be able to sleep at night!
Simon, I love, love, all those Great Polls! Speaking of Polls. I don't know if I mentioned that I am going to be a Poll Watcher for this upcoming election here in Sarasota County, Florida.
Some of us are very disturbed by his rhetoric and positions on Israel such as calling Netenyahu and Israel “blood thirsty.” I believe rhetoric like this, and that of Mandami, opens the door for the normalization of antisemitism. And the idea that you can hate the government and not the people is becoming less
espoused by pro Palestinian advocates.
I was on vacation and saw a large group of Orthodox Jews in a visitor center. I usually would have asked one where they were from. But I didn’t because I felt just by asking they might get defensive or think I was ready to criticize them.
Just the fact that I was concerned about asking made me really sad.
That's not the issue Thomas. El-Sayed would be wise to do some form of visible and extended sit downs, listening sessions, diplomacy to Jewish organizations and communities in Michigan. There is intense distrust. Words he used this week, after he won, were not well received. He campaigned with Hasan Piker on Monday. He has work to do here and this is politics 101. If he wants to win he's got to bring everyone along or it will be much harder for him to win.
I thought the Michelle Goldberg piece in the NYT was thoughtful, fair, and revealing. Did you read it? It's titled, "The Populist Left Has a Theory. We're All About to Test It."
I also think it is critical that we do not lump together or conflate El-Sayed with Mamdani. They are different people, with different responsibilities, and different views. El-Sayed made mistakes after winning on Tuesday. This all needs to get better, quickly.
So Cassidy lives up to his well deserved reputation as a craven coward.
I long ago “accepted” what the GOP is: unprincipled and only interested in power. It’s not something I am happy about or even comfortable with, but I believe it’s essential to understanding what we are up against.
I would like to see our family discuss their lack of integrity and corruption far more. Limiting our ire to Trump is giving these crooks a pass. As I have posted before: Trump learned in 1.0 that there are no consequences for his criminality. He’s correct and as repugnant as I find him, it’s way past time to hold his enablers to account.
As I understand the philosopher, Hegel, power is given. The GOP quislings are actually responsible.
Obviously, a lucrative lobbying gig that comes with Senate floor privileges because he’ll be a former senator is worth more than principles, I suppose.
CALL CASSIDY 202 224 5824
Sounds pretty clear Cassidy is going to vote to confirm, just like with RFK Jr and Hegseth where he also had "concerns" and was reassured by promises, all since broken lmmmm
Yup. Unfortunately that's what happened. Murkowski is the only Republican in the Senate with any integrity at all. The rest will go down in history as traitors.
he's a spineless twit. #FAIL
Now he's blaming Hegseth for running out of ammunition and, I guess, not telling him.
Hegseth needs to explain it in a way he can understand: "Sir, it's like when you run out of blue chews."
We lost the Iran war in the first 4-6 weeks and the rest is pretending this didn't happen.
I think Hegseth is on the "Gold" now, eh?
Simon, given the vote totals last night in TN, do you still believe Molder can win his congressional seat?
Reviewing.....what's your take?
The difference in R vs D vote totals in his district is formidable. And removing the incumbent whose record was so clearly a disaster is no longer a motivator. But maybe the general will generate much more enthusiasm. Eager to hear your analysis.
Thanks, Simon. Good news is busting out all over. If we could flip TX Gov & LG it would be monumental. The LG in TX is more powerful than the Gov, or at least it was. Let’s look to KS Senate, too.
The Kansas Senate race I just learned about. It looks interesting. At any rate, having a candidate like we do there is good for the breadth of the party and for our ability to reach voters we struggle with. Like Talarico brings.
yes, I've been following. Simon, please assess this race for us. here's a fun video clip of Adam Hamilton. Warnock- Talarico caucus, in the cards?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RQ18aMg72g
very interesting bio
People need to go very slowly here. We are already going to be heavily outspent and cannot get spread too thin.
understand.
Cook has Kansas and Nebraska as likely R. Sabato has Kansas, Nebraska, Florida and Montana as likely R. I'd like to see more data suggesting we have a reasonable chance in those States before we rush any of them money. As we all know, things can change. The economy can further deteriorate; the war in Iran can drag on. It's worth keeping an eye on these States, for sure.
cook doesn't even show much enthusiasm for the house, thinking it will not be that big a wave. to me he's kind of playing this game of negativity and if he's right, all can claim he's a genius. because he could be right; but a lot of people think he isn't.
Cook has historically been slow to make ratings changes. At least that's my impression.
In any case, we need more data about the races in Kansas, Florida, Nebraska, and Montana.
I personally haven't decided what to do about Michigan. I'm waiting.
I remember in 2022 when Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had a strong showing in the WA CD-3 primary. The state party, however, was slow to support her. The DCCC didn't ever get behind her. There was an absence of polling data for that race. But having studied the primary numbers, I and many others thought she had a real chance. It helped that Michelle Goldberg wrote about her race. Then, to the surprise of many, she won. One NYT reporter said that no one could have predicted her win. Obviously that wasn't true.
The point I'm making is that if anyone thinks there is an overlooked race that we should support, make the case. Use data.
the primary was 3 days ago
Yes. And Democrats had 219k votes, while Republicans (mostly Marshall) had 330k votes. Kansas still looks like a long-shot to me, and "likely" seems generous to me. I still see it as a "safe" R seat. That is, until there are data that indicates otherwise.
Sabato just moved KS from Safe R to Likely R. There is currently movement, but we'll see...
the KS primary was 3 days ago. other good candidates ran against Adam Hamilton, things haven't shaken out yet
here's a video clip of him
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RQ18aMg72g
KS Senate is interesting. I listened to Bulwark interview w him yesterday, he's impressive and people seem to be responding to his message. Hope abides in Kansas.
yes. the primary just happened and he ran against some good ppl. his bio shows an interesting journey
here's a clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RQ18aMg72g
Talarico’s New American Dream explained plus video of his speech in Arlington Texas. https://lonestarleft.substack.com/p/james-talarico-and-the-new-american?r=e8o6t&utm_medium=ios
I love listening to him speak. thanks!
The Texas potential voting pool has changed significantly since 2018 when Beto lost by 2 points to incumbent Sen Ted Cruz.
Since 2018, we have seen approximately 680,00 more “White” Texans die than Hispanic Texans.
On the front end, we see an estimated 180,000 to 250,000 Texas Hispanics turn 18 each year v. 90,000 to 110,000 “white” Texans turning 18 each year.
If we take the low end of that range, we can assume 720,000 more Texas Hispanics have turned 18 since 2018 than “white” Texans turning 18.
So, the potential voting pool since 2018 has 678,555 fewer “whites” on the back end (deaths) and at least 720,000 more Texan Hispanics who have turned 18 than Texas whites.
Assuming that whites lean Republican and Hispanics tilt Dem, the voting pool gives Dems about a 1.4 million potential advantage.
Beto needed 215,000 more votes from the 8.4 million ballots in 2018.
Wow, thanks for this great analysis! I love getting some inside scoops from folks in our Senate possible pick up states! Do you get a sense that unenrolleds, independents and some Rs may vote blue as well? I saw the Houston Chronicle endorsed Talarico. Not sure if this was unusual for them to endorse blue.
I expect many moderate Texans to support Talarico. Or not vote in the Senate race. He is a much “safer” vote for them than was Beto (whom I’ve known since he was a 9-year-old tag along behind his politician father.)
Beto had to challenge an incumbent.
Talarico gets to chase an open seat.
Ted Cruz was not a likable person; Ken Paxton is unlikable. (There’s a difference)
Cruz is a skilled orator and aggressive campaigner. Paxton is not.
Beto had to carry the entire ticket. For the first time in decades, Texas Dens have candidates for all federal offices and for all 181 state legislative races. All that Dem action across Texas will accrue to Talarico’s benefit
I would guess there will be "ticket splitters", and Hinojosa will have the toughest time. Some people are going to vote Talarico + Abbot. Getting Hinojosa across the line, and the Lieutenant Gov. race (Patrick vs. who?) will be the biggest test. If we can get all that done it will be shattering to the GOP.
I had lunch a past Austin mayor last month. Steve had met with Gina and advised her go BIG in South Texas as her best path. She will benefit from Talarico’s urban coattails.
I expect Talarico to win. Down ballot? Time will tell. It might be fairly close. Abbott and Lt Gov Patrick will
spend more than $100 million.
Musk might come in (Dems need to
Make sure Texans know that billionaires are trying to rig the system for the billionaires)
I would guess there will be "ticket splitters", and Hinojosa will have the toughest time. Some people are going to vote Talarico + Abbot. Getting Hinojosa across the line, and the Lieutenant Gov. race (Patrick vs. Goodwin) will be the biggest test. If we can get all that done it will be shattering to the GOP.
also Beto was pro-gun safety, people interpreted that as "coming for your guns." There's a big diff, but unfortunately, people weren't buying it. He's done a ton of voter reg work w Powered X People since then. Thanks for the update!
I like the “pro gun safety” term.
“Gun control” is a sure loser
That's a Moms Demand Action frame that was developed by expert messenger Shannon Watts. Gun safety incorporates safe storage, background checks, extreme risk protections, etc. As a matter of fact, our partner org in DC is Everytown for Gun Safety (former Mayors vs. Guns). :)
From your analysis, looks like partisan voter registration and GOTV is super important in Texas (and everywhere). I hope the Texas Dem party and their excellent party chair have the wherewithal to execute on this.
I agree. The key, of course, is execution .. making it happen. Beto is out there every week on college campuses… getting good engagement with younger folk
have been a fan of Beto ever since watching his life-streamed drive from TX back to Congress with what-his-name. such a talent
Good number-crunching. Another factor to consider is the effect of domestic migration. These are the most recent numbers I could find on a brief search:
"Nearly 612,000 people moved to Texas last year [2023], while about 478,000 moved out."
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/texas/2024/12/02/507491/texas-leads-the-country-in-net-migration/
Great analysis, Gary - thank you! I lived in Dallas for 30 years and having been watching the demographic of Dallas changing over those decades. Hispanic citizens now represent 41% of the state population and they will change the state for the better with their votes. My last 10 years in Dallas I lived in a neighborhood that was primarily Mexican ancestry people. Best neighborhood I've ever lived in!
Non-partisan voter registration is also important, and it adds many access points that partisan groups do not have. Events, community centers, etc. in underserved areas are seeing big enthusiasm. I personally register young (but not college age) Hispanics at these events—motivated, first time voters. See ntxvotes.org and join us!
Cassidy says he'll announce his decision at 10:40. I'm burning the good incense.
Fingers crossed. Blanche is a terrifying prospect and one of the most dangerous people we could have as AG.
It doesn't sound good. It sounds like he's building a case to confirm.
Cassidy now has to live with what he's done to America's health and the justice system on which they rely.
I hope he was a better physician than he was an elected official.
He got very emotional, and that's understandable.
I think he's a man with a destroyed soul, but he has very poor judgment.
I think Cassidy knows exactly what he is doing. He might loathe himself for it (or not) but he knows what he is choosing and why.
Yup, he doesn't want to be harrassed by MAGAts for the rest of his term and beyond. He learned nothing from his votes on RFK or Hegseth because he didn't vote for them because they promised to do things they reneged on; he voted for them because he was, is, and now clearly always will be gutless.
These people saying they fear for their lives--has anything actually happened to them? Of course not‐‐Trump is the most gutless (with the biggest gut) of all. None of the political murders since Trump took office started with threats, credible or otherwise. Me, I'd love to have enough power that Trump thought I was worth a death threat or two. They say youth is wasted on the young, but power is often wasted on the powerful, too.
Cowards. I guess a cushy lobbyist job doesn't hurt. How Cassidy can look at himself in the mirror, I just don't know. Same with the rest of those cowards.
Sickening. This is really bad for America.
Simon summarizes a wide variety of issues, especially elections and candidates. Listening to the candidate interviews from all over the country helps you learn in depth information about major issues in different regions that we can leverage to win
a very good read from robert reich this am. and probably the issue of our lifetimes. income inequality. now is the time for this issue to be front & center. hope the link works!
https://robertreich.substack.com/p/the-enshittification-of-everything?utm_source=substack&publication_id=365422&post_id=209191233&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=flncf&triedRedirect=true
Yes, that Enshittification series is excellent. I printed out part 1 yesterday. The title comes from a book that came out last year: https://bookshop.org/p/books/enshittification-why-everything-suddenly-got-worse-and-what-to-do-about-it-cory-doctorow/
"Enshittification: It’s not just you—the internet sucks now. It’s been enshittified. That was no accident, and it’s not gonna fix itself."
I consider Reich to be one of my North Stars. His historical analysis and insights are essential.
I just finished making my calls and I'm waiting for Senator Bill Cassidy, and here He is! His decision is, He will confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General. This is a Very Unfortunate and Dangerous decision! I hope he will be able to sleep at night!
Simon, I love, love, all those Great Polls! Speaking of Polls. I don't know if I mentioned that I am going to be a Poll Watcher for this upcoming election here in Sarasota County, Florida.
Will you invite El Sayed for an interview?
Some of us are very disturbed by his rhetoric and positions on Israel such as calling Netenyahu and Israel “blood thirsty.” I believe rhetoric like this, and that of Mandami, opens the door for the normalization of antisemitism. And the idea that you can hate the government and not the people is becoming less
espoused by pro Palestinian advocates.
I was on vacation and saw a large group of Orthodox Jews in a visitor center. I usually would have asked one where they were from. But I didn’t because I felt just by asking they might get defensive or think I was ready to criticize them.
Just the fact that I was concerned about asking made me really sad.
I don't think it is about 'hate', it is about what is right.
You have seen what has happened in Gaza and what is happening in the West Bank right now I assume?
That's not the issue Thomas. El-Sayed would be wise to do some form of visible and extended sit downs, listening sessions, diplomacy to Jewish organizations and communities in Michigan. There is intense distrust. Words he used this week, after he won, were not well received. He campaigned with Hasan Piker on Monday. He has work to do here and this is politics 101. If he wants to win he's got to bring everyone along or it will be much harder for him to win.
Michigan has a large and influential Jewish population. He needs to become their Senator too.
100%. Someone needs to pull him aside and read him the riot act on what the responsibilities of being a senator really are.
I thought the Michelle Goldberg piece in the NYT was thoughtful, fair, and revealing. Did you read it? It's titled, "The Populist Left Has a Theory. We're All About to Test It."
Ok, fair enough.
I thought Marvin was referring to the bigger picture, as he only touched on El-Sayed before moving on to Mandami and more general sentiment.
I also think it is critical that we do not lump together or conflate El-Sayed with Mamdani. They are different people, with different responsibilities, and different views. El-Sayed made mistakes after winning on Tuesday. This all needs to get better, quickly.
So Cassidy lives up to his well deserved reputation as a craven coward.
I long ago “accepted” what the GOP is: unprincipled and only interested in power. It’s not something I am happy about or even comfortable with, but I believe it’s essential to understanding what we are up against.
I would like to see our family discuss their lack of integrity and corruption far more. Limiting our ire to Trump is giving these crooks a pass. As I have posted before: Trump learned in 1.0 that there are no consequences for his criminality. He’s correct and as repugnant as I find him, it’s way past time to hold his enablers to account.
As I understand the philosopher, Hegel, power is given. The GOP quislings are actually responsible.
Trump kills jobs and starts wars.
That about sums it up. And pads his wallet in the process.
I posted this, by Garry Kasparov, over on Simon’s new DSA page, but thought more of you might see it here. https://thenextmove.substack.com/p/five-things-to-know-about-the-dsa?r=ac69z&utm_medium=ios
Great piece. Side note: Maurice Isserman was a history professor of mine back in the day, he's a scholar of 1960s activism.
Obviously, a lucrative lobbying gig that comes with Senate floor privileges because he’ll be a former senator is worth more than principles, I suppose.