Slower Growth, Higher Prices, A Huge Tax Hike, Explosive Deficits, Credit Downgrades - Fighting Trump's Ruinous More For Him, Less For Us Economic "Strategy

$400m planes, $100m parades, tens of millions in memecoins and big tax cuts for him, 2 dolls and 5 pencils for all of us

Morning all. There’s been a lot of news since yesterday’s Hopium post hit your in box - in a big, embarrassing loss for Trump and the Rs the House reconciliation bill did not pass out of the budget committee; The Supreme Court ruled against Trump, again, this time 7-2; Moody’s downgraded the credit rating of the United States of America; as expected, Russia blew up the new round of “peace” talks once again making our leader look like a compromised fool to the world; the FDA authorized the first ever blood test for Alzheimer’s; in another win for the Dem AGs a federal judge ruled that HHS cannot cancel $11 billion in public health grants to the states Congress had appropriated this year; and we learned that DOGE failed to find any fraud in Social Security as it tore the agency apart:

The U.S. DOGE Service arrived at the Social Security Administration this year determined to slash staff and root out what it claimed was widespread fraud and wasteful spending — a mission Elon Musk’s cost-cutting team has pursued across the government.

But as of this week, many of the major changes DOGE pushed at Social Security have been abandoned or are being reversed after proving ineffective, while others are yielding unintended consequences and badly damaging customer service and satisfaction. The problems come as the agency struggles to cope with a record surge of hundreds of thousands of retirement claims in recent months.

DOGE, which stands for Department of Government Efficiency but is not a Cabinet-level agency, had to cancel a plan to cut phone service for retirement and disability claims after drawing outrage from lawmakers, seniors and advocates. Staff reductions and reassignments led by DOGE are slowing the pace of claims processing as field offices lose longtime staff and gain a smaller number of inexperienced replacements. DOGE-driven changes to the agency’s website are causing crashes almost every day, and phone customers complain about dropped calls and long wait times. A DOGE-imposed spending freeze is leading to shortages of basic office supplies, from printer cartridges to the phone headsets staff need to do their jobs.

And on Friday, Social Security leaders told employees that the agency was ending a security check, developed at DOGE’s request, that was meant to root out allegedly fraudulent claims filed over the phone, according to three employees familiar with the situation and an email obtained by The Washington Post. But the measure — which involved placing a three-day hold on all phone claims as other staffers checked into the caller’s background — had only identified a couple of potential fraud cases while causing significant delays in claims processing, two employees said.

While there is a lot going on now the big story in American politics is the ongoing economic and political failure of Trump’s ruinous and ridiculous “more for me, less for you” smash and grab tariffs + reconciliation agenda.

As we’ve seen in poll after poll the country has rejected Trump’s economic approach. Yesterday the U of Michigan consumer sentiment survey found further erosion of consumer sentiment, finding some of the lowest readings ever recorded in the 80 year history of this survey.

Yesterday Trump announced that the tariffs he has imposed on all goods imported to the US from every country in the world were not about getting better deals for the US, as he had been arguing, but were just going to be imposed now without further negotiations.

In another repudiation of Trump’s failed economic agenda his “big, ugly” reconciliation bill failed in committee yesterday as 5 Republicans sided with Democrats to vote it down, 21-16. In another vote of no confidence in Trump yesterday Moody’s downgraded America’s credit rating for the first time since 1919:

May 16 (Reuters) - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating on Friday due to concerns about the nation's growing, $36 trillion debt pile, in a move that could complicate President Donald Trump's efforts to cut taxes and send ripples through global markets.

Moody's first gave the United States its pristine "Aaa" rating in 1919 and is the last of the three major credit agencies to downgrade it.

Friday's cut by one notch to "Aa1" follows a change in 2023 in the agency's outlook on the sovereign due to wider fiscal deficits and higher interest payments.

"Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs," Moody's said on Friday, as it changed its outlook on the U.S. to "stable" from "negative."

It is important to take stock now of where we are. Trump inherited what may have been the strongest economy ever passed from one President to another. Joe Biden got us through COVID better than any other advanced economy in the world. Inflation was coming down, growth was strong, and all Trump had to do was do nothing. Instead he has pursued his Banana Republic two part strategy of unilateral global tariffs and this reckless reconciliation bill. The “strategy” is this - huge tax cuts for billionaires; a tax 14% increase in tariffs (taxes) on all goods imported into the US, one of the largest tax increases in American history, illegally imposed without Congressional debate or approval; slower economic growth, higher prices and elevated interest rates all putting a disproportionate burden on those with less; enormous cuts in health care and food aid for seniors, working Americas and the poor; a dramatic weakening of our public health care systems; unprecedented, jawdropping corruption and pocket lining; the illegal ransacking of our federal government that is undermining essential activities like the safety of air travel in America and the ability to track and respond to natural disasters; the removal of millions of workers at a time of low unemployment; an assault on academia, science and research that will leave America far less healthy, globally competitive and prosperous; and a huge increase in our deficit that, as Moody’s told us, threatens the fiscal integrity of the United States itself.

It increasingly appears the big idea driving Trump’s “strategy” is to shift the tax burden in the US from wealthy Americans to those with less. In order to do that he has imposed one of the largest tax increases in American history (the tariffs) that disproportionately falls on those with less, and is frenetically and recklessly trying to cut spending. That’s why the tariffs are now permanent, may even increase in the coming weeks and were never a negotiating tool; and that’s why they are ferociously dismantling the government and cutting programs. For simply, in their blinding greed, Trump and his allies just don’t want to pay for these programs - even if our economy and the American people suffer; even if as Bill Gates recently explained, it means the death of millions and millions around the world.

As Moody’s reminded us, however, the math of all this doesn’t add up. The revenues generated from the tariffs and the cuts they’ve come up with so far fall far short of the revenue lost from the billionaire tax cuts. Thus we get enormous deficits in a moment where the country simply can no longer afford them. Here’s one of those Rs who voted against the budget bill yesterday:

The warning signs are there for all to see. The economy has slowed. Prices are rising. The fiscal integrity of the US is eroding. Consumer confidence has plummeted. Trump’s economic “strategy” has already failed. His own party is struggling to overcome its ugliness and advance it.

Our goal this week and throughout the summer is to keep making the case that what we are seeing now looks more like national sabotage than a “strategy;” that Trump is waging a war on every day Americans, giving him and his wealthy friends more while we all get far, far less; that he is illegally lining his pockets, grabbing $400m planes, throwing himself a $100m parade on our dime while the rest of us get 2 dolls and 5 pencils; that his economic agenda if fully enacted will be ruinous for the country and working people, and is yet another Trumpian betrayal of all of us; and that we must, with all of our might, keep working to defeat the rancid reconciliation bill, roll back the terrible tariffs and do what Democrats do - makes things better for the great people of these United States of America.

Weekend Hopium Fare - Got some terrific new conversations and presentations for your weekend viewing and listening pleasure:

• New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torres on the important work of the 23 Dem AGs (this is a very compelling and informative discussion)

• Hopium-endorsed Virginia Gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger updates us on her critical race for governor

• Likely Florida gubernatorial candidate David Jolly talks to us about putting Florida back in play

• Former MSNBC host Katie Phang discusses her journey from legacy to pro-democracy media

• Reps. Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi report in from the front line of the battle against the rancid reconciliation bill

• Jane Kleeb updates us on the good work of the new DNC leadership team, Rachel Janfaza and I talk about what Dems need to do win back the youth vote and Rob Shapiro argues that Trump may be pushing the US into a perfect - and dangerous - economic storm.

• In my weekly video and a companion post, Our Patriotism Versus Their Betrayal, I offer some new thinking about what happened in 2024 and what it means for us now in our fight against Trump.

Our Work This Week - My expectation is that the Rs will find a way to get everyone together and will try to pass the full reconciliation bill on the floor this week, before the Memorial Day recess. Their job, however, got harder with Moody’s late Friday credit downgrade of the US, as this will strengthen the hand of those who broke from the Speaker and Trump yesterday.

So this week is all about making the case against the Trump’s ruinous economic approach to our Senators and House Members, and our networks and allied groups. We need to be very, very loud this week everyone.

A proposed script. Use whatever works for you:

I am calling to urge you to vote against the reconciliation bill and to roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs. Together these actions have raised taxes on all of us and will explode the deficit - things Republicans have always told us they did not believe in.

But your agenda is also causing all of us to “pay more and get less” for every day things including our health care; people to loses their jobs; and the economy to slow - all so you can give your rich donors a huge tax break. Your plans will weaken this great country and are an extraordinary betrayal of everything you promised during the campaign - which was to help people like me, not Elon Musk, get ahead.

Your plans are ones of sabotage, surrender and betrayal and I urge you to abandon them and to work with Democrats to find a better way.

Please self-report on your actions today. I know folks have been working hard and these reports of our gritty fight helps lift all of us up every day.

In addition to making our calls and contacting these offices, we have two more projects I hope you will consider supporting:

1 - Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Simply, the Virginia elections are the most important elections we have this year, and we must win them. We have narrow majorities in both legislative chambers and while our candidate Abigail Spanberger has a modest lead in current polling, this is going to be a close election where our money and volunteer time can make a real difference. If you are to give to only one candidate or election this year it should be this one. Here’s a link to do so today……

To learn more about Abigail check out my new discussion with her, released yesterday. We have now raised over $102,000 towards our June 30th goal of $200,000 - thank you all. If you want to volunteer for her race head over to her campaign website today. We can do this people!

2 - Support The Hopium House 7 - We’ve begun our work to help flip the House next year by supporting and shoring up the 7 newly-elected battleground House Dems we helped elect last year. Catch our interviews with Reps Derek Tran, Janelle Bynum, Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen and give to all 7 through a single donation on our ActBlue page. Learn more about this important effort here.

We’ve already raised over $82,000 towards our $200,000 June 30th goal - thank you all!

Let’s end this with glorious image of George Mason at his tiny but wonderful memorial on the national Mall:

Rest up this weekend everyone. We have a big week ahead of us and need to come out of the gate strong on Monday - Simon