Morning all. First, this:
Next, our plucky, proud and patriotic paid subscribers gathered last night. A recording and transcript of my opening remarks and our spirited Q and A is above. Get to it when you can and share with others you think might enjoy it.
Some takeaways from my talk…….
Democrats Are Winning And Overperforming In Elections Again - Last night I explored a topic familiar to old time Hopium folks - that the most powerful force in our politics today is fear of and opposition to MAGA. We’ve seen it in Australia and Canada, in Omaha and Wisconsin, in special elections all across the US; we’ve seen it in poll after poll and now in the Congressional Generic (below); and we’ve even seen it in the Vatican. Trump 2.0 is failing, the circle of defiance is growing and he is a weakened and diminished political figure here and across the world.
The rationale for my optimism in 2024 was that the country had come to understand that something had gone wrong with the GOP, and MAGA had underperformed in elections of all kinds since 2018. While we did not see that underperformance and MAGA struggle at the Presidential level in 2024, we did pick up a US House seat; Democrats did win down ballot Senate races in most of the battleground states; we won 5 of 10 statewide elections in NC, broke the supermajority there and elected Allison Riggs to the Supreme Court (twice!); and we made significant gains in state legislative races in Wisconsin.
What we are seeing this year, in our overperformances and in their electoral struggles, feels a lot like what we saw in special elections and local races post Dobbs throughout 2022, 2023 and early 2024. As we explored last night 1) we need more of an understanding of why this dynamic, one we have seen all across the country from 2018 on, did not manifest in the Presidential race; 2) Trump’s narrow victory, and our Presidential struggles and mistakes, may have created a false impression of structural strength for Trump/MAGA 2024 that has now rapidly evaporated.
With the financial backing of oligarchs and Trump’s own newfound and ill-gotten wealth we should expect a ferocious fight to keep the GOP in charge of Congress next year. And yes, Dems do have significant structural brand and tactical problems we must address (see my 7 Takeaways Memo for more on this). But the narrative of Trump Strong/Dems Weak that is bouncing around in our discourse right now is simply no longer true (and may never have been true). We are winning elections and overperforming again. They are losing elections and underperforming again. While there is no guarantee this is what will happen in coming elections in 2025 and 2026, we should proceed with the understanding that we are strong and they are weak; that we should be on offense and be as loud as we can; that we have beaten MAGA again and again and can do so again; that whatever mandate Trump had has been rescinded by voters in recent weeks; and we have a helluva lot work to do, together, to seize the political opportunities in front of us. Trump is still Trump, and MAGA is still MAGA - too extreme, corrupt, incompetent, traitorous, “more for me, less for you” and the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen - and voters have been voting against this politics again and again in all kinds of races all across the US for many years now.
Our Investments Have Made A Big Difference - I spent some time last night reminding our community of the success of our strategic investments last cycle, as we 1) help flip 7 US House seats through raising $2.3m for battleground House candidates 2) were Ruben Gallego’s largest fundraiser raising more than $700,000 in his impressive win in a very tough year in AZ 3) were the largest fundraiser for the NC Dem Party raising more than $1.1m in what was a successful year for us down ballot including Allison Riggs’ narrow victory 4) were the largest fundraiser for the Nebraska Dems raising more than $300,000 to help Jane Kleeb and crew win “the blue dot” and strengthen the party so a win like the Omaha Mayor’s race was possible 5) invested $150,000 into the Wisconsin state legislative races which were among our biggest successes in the 2024 cycle, and raised another $150,000 for the WI Dem Party and Susan Crawford this year 6) were among the biggest fundraisers in the 2023 Virginia state legislative races, and helped flip the House, keep the Senate and overperform expectations in a year that Glenn Youngkin’s money was supposed to sink us.
In addition to all this money we raised, tens of thousands of you knocked on doors, wrote postcards and busted your ass to help us win in these elections and many more over the past two years.
Again, while we did not win the Presidential race, we did have meaningful and important wins in 2023, 2024 and now again in early 2025. While they may have 20-30 American oligarchs, Putin, MBS and other global autocrats, we have all of you. And all of you is mighty!
I want to note the significance of our investments in state Democratic Parties last cycle. We made big investments in two - NE and NC. And look at the results we’ve had - wins not just in one election, but multiple. Building strong state parties is something that Dems simply must do, and as Jane Kleeb discussed with us a few days ago, it is at the core of the agenda of the new Ken Martin led team at the DNC and her team now leading the Association Of State Democratic Committees (state parties). The return on these investments are significant, perhaps more meaningful than any other political investment we can make in our politics today.
We Must Keep Fighting Trump’s Ruinous “More For Me, Less For You” Smash and Grab Economic Strategy - I talked last night about how incredibly out of position the Rs now are on the economy - more for billionaires, less for everyone else, a slower economy, a big tax hike, higher prices and exploding deficits. We need to be on offense, big time, and taking our case about their ruinous economic approach, an extraordinary betrayal of everything they promised, to the American people with everything we got. We need to keep fighting to kill this terrible reconciliation bill and roll backTrump’s terrible tariffs. We can and must do better. Loud and proud people! Loud and proud.
While We Establish Our Core Economic Narrative, We Also Must Develop Those Second And Third Narrative Fronts - While we prosecute our economic campaign, we should be working hard to open up two more fronts again Trump and his allies 1) one that indicts them for their lawlessness, abandonment of the Constitutional order, unprecedented smash and grab corruption and ransacking of the US government and selling out to Russia and other foreign interests. In this process we must become patriots and they the betrayers. 2) their barbaric assault on science, research, academia and our public health.
FFS Kennedy could not even back measles and polio vaccines in his Congressional testimony yesterday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Finally, as I said last night, while we can acknowledge our progress, and celebrate our wins, we must at all times remember that Trump and his team are breaking things that will be difficult if not impossible to repair, and that we must be acting with great urgency every day.
So, now, let’s get to work……
From Hopium community member Bryn T:
Really needed my Hopium today! It’s so easy to read the news and whipsaw between anger and fear. This work that we do here is the antidote to that. It allows me to put aside the feelings of impotent rage and take positive action. Hopium helps me put one foot in front of the other on the bad days and feel actual optimism on the good days. Thank you all for being here.
Due to how terrible the GOP reconciliation bill has become this week, I am asking this community to go into full battle mode now. We need to contact our Congressional offices with everything we got. Call both House and Senate offices. Tell them that you want to work against this reconciliation bill and to keep working on rolling back Trump’s illegal and unconstitutional “taxation without representation” tax increase (tariffs).
Everyone on the Hill in both parties need to hear from us today. Our anger, our sense of betrayal needs to become a very loud roar today and in the days to come until this terrible bill is defeated and these ruinous tariffs are rolled back.
For those of you with Republican Reps and Senators you need to be particularly loud now.
A proposed script. Use whatever works for you:
I am calling to urge you to vote against the reconciliation bill and to roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs. Together these actions have raised taxes on all of us and will explode the deficit - things Republicans have always told us they did not believe in.
But your agenda is also causing all of us to “pay more and get less” for every day things including our health care; people to loses their jobs; and the economy to slow - all so you can give your rich donors a huge tax break. Your plans will weaken this great country and are an extraordinary betrayal of everything you promised during the campaign - which was to help people like me, not Elon Musk, get ahead.
Your plans are ones of sabotage, surrender and betrayal and I urge you to abandon them and to work with Democrats to find a better way.
Please self-report on your actions today. I know folks have been working hard and these reports of our gritty fight helps lift all of us up every day.
In addition to making our calls and contacting these offices, we have two more projects I hope you will consider supporting:
1 - Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Simply, the Virginia elections are the most important elections we have this year, and we must win them. We have narrow majorities in both legislative chambers and while our candidate Abigail Spanberger has a modest lead in current polling, this is going to be a close election where our money and volunteer time can make a real difference. If you are to give to only one candidate or election this year it should be this one. Here’s a link to do so today……
To learn more about Abigail check out my new discussion with her, released yesterday. We have now raised almost $100,000 towards our June 30th goal of $200,000 - thank you all. If you want to volunteer for her race head over to her campaign website today. We can do this people!
2 - Support The Hopium House 7 - We’ve begun our work to help flip the House next year by supporting and shoring up the 7 newly-elected battleground House Dems we helped elect last year. Catch our interviews with Reps Derek Tran and Janelle Bynum and give to all 7 through a single donation on our ActBlue page. Learn more about this important effort here.
We’ve already raised over $77,000 towards our $200,000 June 30th goal - thank you all!
Let’s end with this hopeful passage from Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address from a photo I took on Sunday. Perhaps we should adopt this as our big Hopium goal - to not just defeat Trump but to together usher in “a new birth of freedom” for these extraordinary United States of America.
Keep working hard all. I wake today hopeful, resolute and grateful to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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