Morning all. Todd Blanche still does not have the votes so we must keep calling the Senate. Call both your Senators today and urge them to oppose him and keep fighting. If you live in North Carolina or Texas your calls to Senators Tillis and Cornyn really matter. Call, call, and keep calling everyone.
The proud, plucky patriots of this remarkable community gathered last night for our weekly check in on our grand battle against MAGA and for freedom and democracy, here and everywhere. It was a lively affair, as they often are when this community gathers. Here is some of what we talked about:
Greater MAGA Has Been Dramatically Weakened - Orban fell, and now due to their failed wars, Trump, Putin, and Bibi are all dramatically weakened. Here’s Thomas Friedman in the NYT this week in an essay called “Three World Leaders. Three Incredibly Bad Decisions” (gift link):
Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin are drastically different men, but they do have one important thing in common: Each thinks he is the smartest person in any room he enters. Alas, though, because they have all done the dumbest thing you can do as a leader — surround yourself with sycophants — they have all blundered into dead-end wars from which they can extricate themselves today only by eating a banquet of crow.
Ukraine has taken the war to Russia. Netanyahu’s party is now in serious danger of losing the upcoming Israeli election and losing power. Here in the US it’s now clear from weeks of data that the big drop in inflation in June did not lead to any improvement in Trump’s polling, or state polling for the GOP. Here’s new Fox News polling we got last night, which is consistent with all the other data we are seeing - no recovery for Trump, meaning that these negatives may be really baked in:
So Trump and the GOP are in a bad place, and gas prices and overall inflation dropping did not lead to any recovery. Let’s drill down a bit more on the new Fox News data to see how bad this place Rs find themselves in is now….
Democrats lead in the generic ballot 53%-46%, similar to where we were at this time in the blowout 2018 midterm:
From Fox’s write up of the poll:
Notably, 53% is the highest percentage either party has received on the generic House ballot in Fox News polling since 1996.
Boom!
Trump’s ratings on the major issues of the election are abysmal. It’s a failed regime:
Trump received net-negative ratings for handling immigration (42% approve, 57% disapprove), Iran (34-66%), the economy (33-67%), and inflation (27-73%).
Trump’s crash had lead to Democrats opening up sturdy leads on the issues that matter:
Fox reports that our nine point lead on the economy is the largest for us since 2006 in their polling. Encouraging!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All this data is from before the full return of the war this week. Oil, gas, and diesel prices are now surging. Bond yields (interest rates) are rising. Our bases in the region are being hit hard and American war causalities are mounting. There is chaos on the Hill as the true cost of Trump’s failed war becomes more apparent.
As bad as things are Republicans right now they are now likely to get worse.
Brent crude has surged from the low $80s a few days ago to $100 a barrel this morning:
Gas prices have jumped almost 40 cents and will keep climbing next week given what is happening with oil prices today:
What is also likely to make things worse is that Trump, rather than letting his tariffs expire tomorrow, is imposing broad new tariffs, which will further fuel inflation. Americans are losing their SNAP benefits at a faster rate than anticipated, doing further harm to families across the US. People are getting gunned down in the streets again, something Trump has encouraged in his public comments and policy actions, meaning we are likely to see more of these tragic incidents. A wildly unpopular Trump will be hosting a two day celebration of his failed regime in September - something every battleground Republican candidate must be dreading. As we discussed yesterday the dangers of AI, not just the benefits, are becoming clearer to a skeptical public who will increasingly reject Trump’s hands off approach. In October, just as early voting kicks off throughout the country, tens of millions of voters will learn of premium increases - some dramatic - in both private and public health care plans.
So as bad as all this polling is for Trump and the Republicans right now - and it is bad - things are far more likely to get worse for them than to get better. This is particularly true as parties in power almost always lose ground as we get closer to the election and people start tuning in. Which is why learned yesterday there are Republican operatives “preparing for the bottom to fall out.”
For as bad as things are now for Trump and the Rs they are likely to get worse.
Maine Dems Give Us A Shot, And 2026 Remains A Year Of Remarkable Opportunity For Democrats - Our friends at the Maine Democratic Party have pulled off a bit of a miracle. The process they put in place to pick a new Senate nominee has worked. A single candidate, Troy Jackson has emerged with legitimacy, and in the very first poll taken of the race he leads Susan Collins 49%-46%. Beating Susan Collins will be tough but given where we were a few weeks ago this is a very encouraging development. Let us all thank Charlie Dingman, Devon Murphy-Anderson, and the whole MDP team for a job well done. Troy Jackson will receive the formal nomination on Saturday, at a state convention partially funded by the members of our hard-working community. We’ve raised about a quarter of the budget this rushed process required and played a meaningful role in our party getting through this challenging period. We now once again are at a place where we have a shot at winning in Maine and flipping the Senate - amazing work all!
Here’s my latest round up of Senate polling. That we have leads in these states Trump won by 10+ points remains remarkable, encouraging, awesome:
Finally, us - As I’ve been writing I think to take advantage of the opportunity we now have Dems would be wise to roll out a short agenda so voters have something vote for, not just against. That agenda should include clear accountability and renewing democracy commitments that we can earn a mandate for in the election, making these efforts more likely to be successful when we are back in power next year.
Character and virtue have emerged as critical assets for us this cycle as we run against the immoral, corrupt party of a villainous Epstein, a rapacious Trump, glutenous oligarchs, and cowardly quislings who betray and abandon the American people 24/7/365.
In the Fox polling Democrats are at 53% in the generic ballot the highest of any party in 30 years of Fox News polling. We also 53% (+11) in a new Emerson poll this morning:
We have sturdy leads against Republicans on the issues that matter in this election. Our candidates are overperforming the partisan lean of battleground states and districts all over the country. Our candidates are raising tons of money from a fired up grassroots. In every poll that tests it we have big leads on intensity. We hit 53% in two right leaning polls in the last 24 hours. The Dems suck and are weak narrative coursing through out family is no longer true (if it ever was given our electoral performances these past 18 months) and it needs to end. Right now, today, Democrats are the strong party on the cusp of winning an election and Republicans are weak, on the verge of getting their ass kicked. Attempts to paint the current moment as otherwise is doing MAGA’s work for them.
We also need to remember that what Trump wants more than anything else is for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. So must keep our focus on Job One - electing these 35-40 intrepid patriots running for the House and Senate in red states and red places. The general election is here. We have great candidates. People will start voting early on September 18th, less than two months away. We need to keep the focus on Trump and the Rs and put everything we got into winning these elections.
And we also need to encourage everyone we know, everyone in our networks, grassroots organizations, local parties, book and post card writing clubs to vote early. Voting early increases our turnout; makes it harder for him to cheat; shows democracy is working; and puts social pressure and creates a permission structure for people to vote. “Hey others are voting I should vote too.”
That’s some of what we talked about last night. Enjoy my talk. Share it with others. Hit like so more will see it. Become a paid subscriber to help fund commentary and analysis like this, and yes, my friends, the time for talking is done - it is time to do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Friends, our OG Winning The House campaign hit $1m raised this morning! Amazing work all!
Winning The House and Senate In 2026
Our Winning The House Campaign - $1,000,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund (Newly Expanded) - $188,100 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from recent primaries. Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48) (Dr. Shah’s race was called for him overnight - he is now officially the nominee).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here. We are off to a great start here everyone!
Winning The Senate - $505,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our five candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these five so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them here.
Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States
Winning Georgia (New) - $9,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund split a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party | Watch my new interview with Georgia Dem Chair Charlie Bailey to get a terrific overview of the opportunities we have in Georgia this cycle
Winning Iowa - $25,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party | Watch my new interview with the great Chair of the Iowa Democratic Party Rita Hart to get an overview of why this is a year of such opportunity in Iowa
Winning Maine (New) - $68,100 raised, $75,000 goal - Donate | Right now this fund is only supporting the Maine Democratic Party to help them get through this challenging process of selecting a new Senate nominee. It will expand in coming days to include both our gubernatorial candidate, Hannah Pingree, and our eventual Senate nominee too. Thanks to all of you who have rallied for the Maine Dems in the past few days - it’s a big deal! | Watch our new interview with the inspiring Executive Director of the Maine Dems Devon Murphy-Anderson
Winning Ohio - $181,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $635,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
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Keep working hard everyone. And remember - Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today. We do the work to make it so…..
